Reggie Wayne versus Chris Chambers (1 Viewer)

[Bonfire]

Doing a few mock drafts as well as actual drafts one of the hardest decisons I have faced thus far is deciding between these two guys if I am picking in the 3rd and all of the "best" wide receivers are off the board. I have changed my mind a number of time through the off season, and have done to to the point where I am at a loss. I have read both Player spotlights on these two, but would appreciate anyone's ideas of why or why not with these two.

 

[Blackjacks]

Doing a few mock drafts as well as actual drafts one of the hardest decisons I have faced thus far is deciding between these two guys if I am picking in the 3rd and all of the "best" wide receivers are off the board. I have changed my mind a number of time through the off season, and have done to to the point where I am at a loss. I have read both Player spotlights on these two, but would appreciate anyone's ideas of why or why not with these two.

I'll go with Wayne over Chambers in a heartbeat. I believe the Colts are going to be passing alot more this year and I'll go with a healthy Manning over a gimpy Culpepper all day long. Chambers might get you bigger games but I'll go with more of a consistent wr like Wayne. Plus Harrison has to slide intot he #2 wr someday...doesn't he??????

 

[Captain Quinoa]

They are nearly identical but I would give the TD edge to Chambers as the Colts have more red zone options.

Chambers put up numbers with crappy QB's last year and indications seem to be that Culpepper is recovering well. No reason to expect a decline.

 

[MLBrandow]

Passing TDs by year for Mularkey offenses (TDs for top WR):

'01 - 16 (6, 37.5%)

'02 - 26 (12, 46.2%)

'03 - 19 (10, 52.6%)

'04 - 17 (9, 52.9%)

'05 - 20 (7, 35%)

AVG - 19.6 (8.8, 44.9%)

To give that some meaning:

Passing TDs by year for Dolphins (Chambers):

'01 - 13 (7, 53.8%)

'02 - 18 (3, 16.7%)

'03 - 17 (11, 64.7%)

'04 - 19 (7, 36.8%)

'05 - 22 (11, 50%)

AVG - 17.8(7.8, 43.8%)

Passing TDs by year for Culpepper (TDs for top WR):

'00 - 33 (15, 45.5%)

'01 - 14 (6, 42.9%)

'02 - 18 (7, 38.9%)

'03 - 25 (12, 48%)

'04 - 39 (13, 33.3%)

'05 - 6 (2, 33.3%)

AVG - 27 (11.0, 40.7%)* note these numbers are scaled to account for missed time.

Now, looking at all of these numbers, it would suggest Chambers is looking at about 11TDs for this upcoming year.

Yardage leaders for Mularkey WR1:

'05 - 816 (Moulds)

'04 - 1043 (Moulds)

'03 - 1163 (Ward)

'02 - 1329 (Ward)

'01 - 1008 (Burress)

AVG - 1072

*Interesting to note is that Mularkey WR2s averaged 954.8 yards (mild sleeper note for Marty Booker).

To me, this means that Chambers is probably in for about 1100 yards.

Reggie Wayne has a good chance to overtake Marvin Harrison this year. Regardless, a good expectation for Wayne IMO would be to average both of their numbers over the past two years.

Harrison '04: 1113/15

Harrison '05: 1146/12

Wayne '04: 1210/12

Wayne '05: 1055/5

Now, I realize that the Chambers methodology is much more empirical, but that is because other variables must be taken into account, while Indy's offense is about as consistent as they come.

In short, you have two very similar-looking WRs here in Wayne and Chambers. The only real difference I see is that Wayne will be playing on a winning team, and Chambers will be playing on a losing team. Fantasy football really doesn't discriminate.

I suppose the tiebreaker goes to Wayne, being that his situation is much more consistent than Chambers's (New OC, New QB, etc).

While many would argue Culpepper the Statue is still a paramount upgrade over "Miami QB '01-'05", and I certainly wouldn't argue, history is a pretty good indicator of what to expect, and the numbers suggest while the offense should be upgraded, Chambers won't see much of a change in his production over last year.

You konw, I was hoping to come to something a bit more conclusive, but I guess I failed. Nearly always, my suspicion will be confirmed by statistical analysis, and in this case, while I originally projected Wayne by a good margin, it seems the only reason I'd take Wayne now is that he has less risk, and I'm not even sure that is a valid argument.

In short, I feel like this thread is debating over a small handful of fantasy points, and that range is so small that it will certainly be determined by extraneous and unforeseen factors.

My pick is Reggie Wayne, because I see MIA imploding this year (although I'm not all that certain that this has much of an impact on Chambers' numbers specifically).

1100/11TD for Chambers.

1131/11TD for Wayne.

I suppose in this case there is no wrong answer, although I would take Wayne's consistency over Chambers's inconsistency. And even that isn't really very telling.

Games with 100+ yards:

Wayne - 2

Chambers - 3

Games with 75+ yards:

Wayne - 7

Chambers - 6

Games with 50+ yards:

Wayne - 13

Chambers - 10

Games under 50 yards receiving:

Wayne - 3 (one was week 16's bench game)

Chambers - 6

Games with 10+ receptions:

Wayne - 1

Chambers - 1

Games with 7+ receptions:

Wayne - 5

Chambers - 2

Games with 5+ receptions:

Wayne - 9

Chambers - 8

Games with under 5 receptions:

Wayne - 7

Chambers - 8

 

[wannabee]

Passing TDs by year for Mularkey offenses (TDs for top WR):

'01 - 16 (6, 37.5%)

'02 - 26 (12, 46.2%)

'03 - 19 (10, 52.6%)

'04 - 17 (9, 52.9%)

'05 - 20 (7, 35%)

AVG - 19.6 (8.8, 44.9%)

To give that some meaning:

Passing TDs by year for Dolphins (Chambers):

'01 - 13 (7, 53.8%)

'02 - 18 (3, 16.7%)

'03 - 17 (11, 64.7%)

'04 - 19 (7, 36.8%)

'05 - 22 (11, 50%)

AVG - 17.8(7.8, 43.8%)

Passing TDs by year for Culpepper (TDs for top WR):

'00 - 33 (15, 45.5%)

'01 - 14 (6, 42.9%)

'02 - 18 (7, 38.9%)

'03 - 25 (12, 48%)

'04 - 39 (13, 33.3%)

'05 - 6 (2, 33.3%)

AVG - 27 (11.0, 40.7%)* note these numbers are scaled to account for missed time.

Now, looking at all of these numbers, it would suggest Chambers is looking at about 11TDs for this upcoming year.

Yardage leaders for Mularkey WR1:

'05 - 816 (Moulds)

'04 - 1043 (Moulds)

'03 - 1163 (Ward)

'02 - 1329 (Ward)

'01 - 1008 (Burress)

AVG - 1072

*Interesting to note is that Mularkey WR2s averaged 954.8 yards (mild sleeper note for Marty Booker).

To me, this means that Chambers is probably in for about 1100 yards.

Reggie Wayne has a good chance to overtake Marvin Harrison this year. Regardless, a good expectation for Wayne IMO would be to average both of their numbers over the past two years.

Harrison '04: 1113/15

Harrison '05: 1146/12

Wayne '04: 1210/12

Wayne '05: 1055/5

Now, I realize that the Chambers methodology is much more empirical, but that is because other variables must be taken into account, while Indy's offense is about as consistent as they come.

In short, you have two very similar-looking WRs here in Wayne and Chambers. The only real difference I see is that Wayne will be playing on a winning team, and Chambers will be playing on a losing team. Fantasy football really doesn't discriminate.

I suppose the tiebreaker goes to Wayne, being that his situation is much more consistent than Chambers's (New OC, New QB, etc).

While many would argue Culpepper the Statue is still a paramount upgrade over "Miami QB '01-'05", and I certainly wouldn't argue, history is a pretty good indicator of what to expect, and the numbers suggest while the offense should be upgraded, Chambers won't see much of a change in his production over last year.

You konw, I was hoping to come to something a bit more conclusive, but I guess I failed. Nearly always, my suspicion will be confirmed by statistical analysis, and in this case, while I originally projected Wayne by a good margin, it seems the only reason I'd take Wayne now is that he has less risk, and I'm not even sure that is a valid argument.

In short, I feel like this thread is debating over a small handful of fantasy points, and that range is so small that it will certainly be determined by extraneous and unforeseen factors.

My pick is Reggie Wayne, because I see MIA imploding this year (although I'm not all that certain that this has much of an impact on Chambers' numbers specifically).

1100/11TD for Chambers.

1131/11TD for Wayne.

I suppose in this case there is no wrong answer, although I would take Wayne's consistency over Chambers's inconsistency.

everyone is entitled to an opinion, but how can you say that Wayne is consistent with those projections? Has he consistently put up those type of numbers?Wayne has only ONE season with 8 or more TDs (much less the 11 you project). In addition, he only has one season with atleast 1100 yds.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/WaynRe00.htm

Chambers, like Wayne, only has one 1100+ yd season. But, he has two seasons with 11 TDs.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/ChamCh00.htm

I guess I do not understand what makes Wayne consistent and Chambers not.

 

[MLBrandow]

everyone is entitled to an opinion, but how can you say that Wayne is consistent with those projections?  Has he consistently put up those type of numbers?

Wayne has only ONE season with 8 or more TDs (much less the 11 you project).  In addition, he only has one season with atleast 1100 yds.

Chambers, like Wayne, only has one 1100+ yd season.  But, he has two seasons with 11 TDs.

I guess I do not understand what makes Wayne consistent and Chambers not.

I am with you.Well, Chambers is a WR1, and Wayne is a WR2 behind a HOFer. Wayne didn't emerge until '04. Chambers didn't emerge until '03.

I added more to my post above, but it only marginally supports the consistency claim.

I don't believe there is much of a difference in these two WRs, other than perhaps that the Colts offense should be more consistent than the Dolphins offense.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

Howabout Darrell Jackson?

I think Jackson should be mentioned in this tier with Wayne and Chambers of WRs who are right on the brink of elite status

 

[chris1969]

Wayne has more upside, but Chambers is more dependable. I always go with guys that are #1 on their team over #2's with similar stats.

 

[Bri]

Wayne has more upside, but Chambers is more dependable.

I don't agree with this. For my ff team, Chambers wasn't dependable in years past

I always go with guys that are #1 on their team over #2's with similar stats.

totally agree

 

[Bri]

Howabout Darrell Jackson?

I think Jackson should be mentioned in this tier with Wayne and Chambers of WRs who are right on the brink of elite status

He's a bit better IMO

 

[Spike]

Would you look to Chambers over Wayne due to the very possible scenario like last year where Peyton Manning is sitting the last few weeks (fantasy football playoffs)?

 

[Bri]

Would you look to Chambers over Wayne due to the very possible scenario like last year where Peyton Manning is sitting the last few weeks (fantasy football playoffs)?

no because ol' Harrison is just as likely to sit to rest his ol bones

 

[ffchamp1]

Howabout Darrell Jackson?

I think Jackson should be mentioned in this tier with Wayne and Chambers of WRs who are right on the brink of elite status

I would consider D-Jax in the tier above these twoTom

 

[dapunisher]

I always go with guys that are #1 on their team over #2's with similar stats.

Agree.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

I like Chambers. I just think that with a qb upgrade he is fantasy gold. You can't go wrong with either, but Culpepper throws a great deep ball and a great jump ball, two things that can only help Chambers td totals. Also, Culpepper is used to working with a Chambers-like receiver (Moss). Don't misunderstand, I"m not saying Chambers is in Moss's level, but he's a similar type receiver despite his size. He jumps well and runs the go route very well.

CHAMBERS

 

[ffchamp1]

Passing TDs by year for Mularkey offenses (TDs for top WR):

'01 - 16 (6, 37.5%)

'02 - 26 (12, 46.2%)

'03 - 19 (10, 52.6%)

'04 - 17 (9, 52.9%)

'05 - 20 (7, 35%)

AVG - 19.6 (8.8, 44.9%)

To give that some meaning:

Passing TDs by year for Dolphins (Chambers):

'01 - 13 (7, 53.8%)

'02 - 18 (3, 16.7%)

'03 - 17 (11, 64.7%)

'04 - 19 (7, 36.8%)

'05 - 22 (11, 50%)

AVG - 17.8(7.8, 43.8%)

Passing TDs by year for Culpepper (TDs for top WR):

'00 - 33 (15, 45.5%)

'01 - 14 (6, 42.9%)

'02 - 18 (7, 38.9%)

'03 - 25 (12, 48%)

'04 - 39 (13, 33.3%)

'05 - 6 (2, 33.3%)

AVG - 27 (11.0, 40.7%)* note these numbers are scaled to account for missed time.

Now, looking at all of these numbers, it would suggest Chambers is looking at about 11TDs for this upcoming year.

Yardage leaders for Mularkey WR1:

'05 - 816 (Moulds)

'04 - 1043 (Moulds)

'03 - 1163 (Ward)

'02 - 1329 (Ward)

'01 - 1008 (Burress)

AVG - 1072

*Interesting to note is that Mularkey WR2s averaged 954.8 yards (mild sleeper note for Marty Booker).

To me, this means that Chambers is probably in for about 1100 yards.

Reggie Wayne has a good chance to overtake Marvin Harrison this year. Regardless, a good expectation for Wayne IMO would be to average both of their numbers over the past two years.

Harrison '04: 1113/15

Harrison '05: 1146/12

Wayne '04: 1210/12

Wayne '05: 1055/5

Now, I realize that the Chambers methodology is much more empirical, but that is because other variables must be taken into account, while Indy's offense is about as consistent as they come.

In short, you have two very similar-looking WRs here in Wayne and Chambers. The only real difference I see is that Wayne will be playing on a winning team, and Chambers will be playing on a losing team. Fantasy football really doesn't discriminate.

I suppose the tiebreaker goes to Wayne, being that his situation is much more consistent than Chambers's (New OC, New QB, etc).

While many would argue Culpepper the Statue is still a paramount upgrade over "Miami QB '01-'05", and I certainly wouldn't argue, history is a pretty good indicator of what to expect, and the numbers suggest while the offense should be upgraded, Chambers won't see much of a change in his production over last year.

You konw, I was hoping to come to something a bit more conclusive, but I guess I failed. Nearly always, my suspicion will be confirmed by statistical analysis, and in this case, while I originally projected Wayne by a good margin, it seems the only reason I'd take Wayne now is that he has less risk, and I'm not even sure that is a valid argument.

In short, I feel like this thread is debating over a small handful of fantasy points, and that range is so small that it will certainly be determined by extraneous and unforeseen factors.

My pick is Reggie Wayne, because I see MIA imploding this year (although I'm not all that certain that this has much of an impact on Chambers' numbers specifically).

1100/11TD for Chambers.

1131/11TD for Wayne.

I suppose in this case there is no wrong answer, although I would take Wayne's consistency over Chambers's inconsistency. And even that isn't really very telling.

Games with 100+ yards:

Wayne - 2

Chambers - 3

Games with 75+ yards:

Wayne - 7

Chambers - 6

Games with 50+ yards:

Wayne - 13

Chambers - 10

Games under 50 yards receiving:

Wayne - 3 (one was week 16's bench game)

Chambers - 6

Games with 10+ receptions:

Wayne - 1

Chambers - 1

Games with 7+ receptions:

Wayne - 5

Chambers - 2

Games with 5+ receptions:

Wayne - 9

Chambers - 8

Games with under 5 receptions:

Wayne - 7

Chambers - 8

I was faced with this question early on and decided to go Chambers (I couldn't afford both salaries) for these two reasons.1. Chambers is the #1 on his team, Wayne is the #2 until further notice

2. Chambers has much bigger big play potential due to this (and what we saw last year)

Tom

 

[jurb26]

Chambers, he offers more talent and is his teams #1. He managed very good and comparable stats to Wayne with far less at QB and far less around him as a whole on offense. With both better QB play and better coaching he should improve.

Chambers.

 

[Tau837]

Chambers had 44 more targets than Wayne last season but Wayne finished with 1 more catch. Chambers was tied for second in the league in targets. I can't help but think he'll see a reduction there. For example, think about how much Carolina forced the ball to Steve Smith, yet Chambers had 16 more targets than Smith.

Also, I think Harrison is on a slow decline and Wayne is on a slow climb, and this year is the year Wayne surpasses Harrison as the Colts' WR1. Given the departure of Edge, I think the Colts' passing will go up at least a bit.

All of these things would lead me to take Wayne over Chambers.

 

[SSOG]

Copied from LHUCK's WR thread.

I'm actually really really down on Chris Chambers (compared to everyone else), thanks to his ridiculously poor catch%. Last year it was 49%. The year before it was 50%. Before that, it was 49%, 52%, and 53.3%. There's a name for elite fantasy WRs with brutal catch%s. Terrell Owens.All jokes aside, not even Terrell Owens has as brutal of a catch% as Chambers. Owens has put up 51%, 61%, 55%, 63%, and 60.4% over the past 5 years- miles ahead of Chambers. He's also demonstrated that he's CAPABLE of catching the ball at a high rate (which Chambers has never done).I'm prepared to eat my crow on this if it comes to it, but I think Chambers is wildly overrated in fantasy football circles.

 

[ceo3west]

Chambers had 44 more targets than Wayne last season but Wayne finished with 1 more catch. Chambers was tied for second in the league in targets. I can't help but think he'll see a reduction there. For example, think about how much Carolina forced the ball to Steve Smith, yet Chambers had 16 more targets than Smith.

Also, I think Harrison is on a slow decline and Wayne is on a slow climb, and this year is the year Wayne surpasses Harrison as the Colts' WR1. Given the departure of Edge, I think the Colts' passing will go up at least a bit.

All of these things would lead me to take Wayne over Chambers.

I agree. Not only that, but I think Wayne's #'s will increase with the departure of James. I see Manning getting back to the 35-40 TD range this year, Wayne will benefit from this.Couple that with the fact that Chambers will most likely have Joey Harrington throwing to him for the first 6-8 weeks of the season. Chambers may have a good year, but not for my team.

 

[ceo3west]

Chambers had 44 more targets than Wayne last season but Wayne finished with 1 more catch.  Chambers was tied for second in the league in targets.  I can't help but think he'll see a reduction there.  For example, think about how much Carolina forced the ball to Steve Smith, yet Chambers had 16 more targets than Smith.

Also, I think Harrison is on a slow decline and Wayne is on a slow climb, and this year is the year Wayne surpasses Harrison as the Colts' WR1.  Given the departure of Edge, I think the Colts' passing will go up at least a bit.

All of these things would lead me to take Wayne over Chambers.

I agree. Not only that, but I think Wayne's #'s will increase with the departure of James. I see Manning getting back to the 35-40 TD range this year, Wayne will benefit from this.Couple that with the fact that Chambers will most likely have Joey Harrington throwing to him for the first 6-8 weeks of the season. Chambers may have a good year, but not for my team.

Just realized you mentioned the James deperture

 

[Zaphod]

Chambers had 44 more targets than Wayne last season but Wayne finished with 1 more catch. Chambers was tied for second in the league in targets. I can't help but think he'll see a reduction there. For example, think about how much Carolina forced the ball to Steve Smith, yet Chambers had 16 more targets than Smith.

Also, I think Harrison is on a slow decline and Wayne is on a slow climb, and this year is the year Wayne surpasses Harrison as the Colts' WR1. Given the departure of Edge, I think the Colts' passing will go up at least a bit.

All of these things would lead me to take Wayne over Chambers.

Ahh, got a good way through the thread to read this. Wayne simply did a lot more with his opportunities than Chambers and their respective targets will finish much closer this year than in 05.

 

[Leroy's Aces]

Howabout Darrell Jackson?

I think Jackson should be mentioned in this tier with Wayne and Chambers of WRs who are right on the brink of elite status

I would consider D-Jax in the tier above these twoTom

Until I see Darrell Jackson play with that knee, he is on his own tier, along with Domanick Davis, called "too injured too draft in the 1st 6 rounds."I would rather have Roy Williams than Chambers, but I would prefer Wayne over all of them. He could be the #1 WR in Indy this year, he was dinged up last year and is healthy in '06.