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Report: Omicron is much more contagious - Discussion on severity (2 Viewers)

50% of recent NYC COVID hospitalizations involved patients admitted for non-COVID reasons.

https://www.wivb.com/news/new-york/watch-live-gov-hochul-announces-booster-mandate-for-healthcare-workers/

Why did it take a politician 2 years to ask this question?

Why did Fauci only recently admit this?

Does this give some credence to the conspiracy theories hospitals were overcounting covid deaths WITH Covid vs DUE TO Covid?

Did Omicron change this %?
Yes, Omicron changed the percentage hugely.  This strain is so contagious that it's infecting multiple times the number of people the original strain and delta strain infected.  Naturally more folks will be admitted to the hospital not for Covid but who have Covid. 

 
Yes, Omicron changed the percentage hugely.  This strain is so contagious that it's infecting multiple times the number of people the original strain and delta strain infected.  Naturally more folks will be admitted to the hospital not for Covid but who have Covid. 
I think thats fair

 
It’s unbelievable the number of people that have it.  I guess we can all thank <your deity of choice> that this thing wasn’t as contagious spring 2020 when we had no vaccines. 
The part that makes it so contagious also makes it less severe because it stays in the upper respiratory tract and replicates 70x faster than Delta.

Hard to say if it's a blessing or not.

 
The part that makes it so contagious also makes it less severe because it stays in the upper respiratory tract and replicates 70x faster than Delta.

Hard to say if it's a blessing or not.
The next couple months won’t be a blessing. After that, who knows?

 
COVID-positive nurses are in our hospitals. But Biden's mandate forbids unvaccinated ones.

The Biden administration has consistently portrayed vaccines as a pandemic panacea. In July, Biden promised, “You’re not going to get COVID if you have these vaccinations.” When he announced plans to impose the mandate in a Sept. 9 speech, Biden declared that "there’s only one confirmed positive case per 5,000 fully vaccinated Americans per day. You’re as safe as possible.”

Biden vastly overstated vaccine efficacy in part because the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had ceased to count the vast majority of breakthrough infections several months earlier. The Washington Post reported that the CDC’s “overly rosy assessments of the vaccines’ effectiveness against delta ... may have lulled Americans into a false sense of security.”

Vaccines will not end this pandemic

More than half a million health care workers have already had COVID-19 infections and more than 99% of them survived. However, the Biden mandate presumes that vaccines are the sole source of good health and protection and ignored post-infection immunity because of perceived “uncertainties … as to the strength and length of (natural) immunity.”

Biden vastly overstated vaccine efficacy in part because the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention had ceased to count the vast majority of breakthrough infections several months earlier. The Washington Post reported that the CDC’s “overly rosy assessments of the vaccines’ effectiveness against delta ... may have lulled Americans into a false sense of security.”

Vaccines will not end this pandemic

More than half a million health care workers have already had COVID-19 infections and more than 99% of them survived. However, the Biden mandate presumes that vaccines are the sole source of good health and protection and ignored post-infection immunity because of perceived “uncertainties … as to the strength and length of (natural) immunity.”

However, two weeks ago, the CDC changed its previous guidance on health care workers isolating after testing positive for COVID-19, and said the quarantine time can be cut further if there are staffing shortages. Now, some COVID-19-positive nurses across the country are being told to come into work and treat patients, even if they still have symptoms.

According to the Biden administration's policies, it is better for hospital patients to be treated by COVID-positive nurses and workers (whose COVID-19 vaccinations failed to safeguard them from the virus) than by unvaccinated nurses with no COVID.

The new policy is outraging nurses across the nation. Zenei Triunfo-Cortez, president of National Nurses United, denounced the new policy: “Weakening COVID-19 guidance now, in the face of what could be the most devastating COVID-19 surge yet, will only result in further transmission, illness and death.”

Vaccination status has gone from being a proxy for health to being a substitute for sane health care policy.

Biden’s COVID-19 policy continues to ignore a torrent of evidence undercutting its mandates.

Biden recently declared that "almost everyone who has died from COVID-19 in the past many months has been unvaccinated.” But the fully vaccinated accounted for 21% to 27% of COVID-19 fatalities in Oregon from August through November; 40% to nearly 75% of deaths in Vermont from August into October.

In a recent television interview, Biden declared, “How about you make sure you’re vaccinated, so you do not spread the disease to anyone else.” But CDC Director Rochelle Walensky admitted in August: "What (COVID-19 vaccines) can't do anymore is prevent transmission ."

Biden recently responded to the record breaking number of new COVID cases by saying that "nobody saw (the omicron variant) coming.” Many scientists had warned of new variants, but that apparently never showed up on the White House radar screen. The chaos from the surge in cases has been compounded by Biden’s failure to fulfill his pledge for easy accessibility to COVID-19 tests.

Vaccines can provide protection against COVID-19 for the elderly and high-risk groups, but there is insufficient evidence to justify forcibly injecting the nation at large. Almost a year ago, Biden promised in his inaugural address to "overcome this deadly virus." Biden admitted last month that there is “no federal solution (to COVID-19). This gets solved at the state level.”

Biden’s admission provides ample justification for the Supreme Court to reject Biden’s latest iron-fisted wild swing to end the pandemic.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/covid-positive-nurses-hospitals-bidens-100122169.html
This is a great article on where we are at today. I was surprised to see it from USA Today, but it is solid reporting. 

 
Yes, Omicron changed the percentage hugely.  This strain is so contagious that it's infecting multiple times the number of people the original strain and delta strain infected.  Naturally more folks will be admitted to the hospital not for Covid but who have Covid. 


so why is it reported like it is ? why isn't it reported like it REALLY is ?

there are reasons for it 

 
Changing Covid paradigm

Pretty interesting tweet-thread, makes sense to me.
I agree with several of his points but not all.  In particular, I think there is a bigger upside than he describes to wearing a quality mask during spikes and times where hospitals are overwhelmed- which we are currently experiencing in many areas.

 
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Stealthycat said:
So why is it reported like it is ? why isn't it reported like it REALLY is ?
It doesn't matter from a resource-management standpoint. If a trauma patient turns out to have incidental COVID, that trauma patient still ends up needing to be isolated from non-COVID patients, thus using a bed and however many nurses in the COVID ward.

 
Changing Covid paradigm

Pretty interesting tweet-thread, makes sense to me.
I think he's essentially right, but Prasad sets up a straw man part way through his thread:

You see the CDC directors base is a group of online zealots who think the virus can be eliminated.

...

The CDC director is going to increasingly have to tell these people the truth. That the virus will never be eliminated.
I'd be flummoxed if there's anyone actually working at the CDC that thinks COVID can be eliminated. What people is Prasad talking about?

Also, Prasad contines:

So the CDC director is in an impossible position. Having an embraced an ideology of zero COVID (John Snow), the CDC director will have to abandon it, and communicate policies that make compromises.
I'll charitably assume he's right without checking ... but if so, there's nothing wrong with (a) Wallensky embracing zero COVID back when that looked possible and then (b) later abandoning the prospect when much more has been learned about the virus.

I don't expect public health leaders to be psychic. I do expect them to step out onto the tree limbs and make best-they-can calls with incomplete information, and then for be flexible and adjust as information accumulates. IMHO, inconsistent positions -- over time and in response to changing information -- is not a problem.

 
I think he's essentially right, but Prasad sets up a straw man part way through his thread:

I'd be flummoxed if there's anyone actually working at the CDC that thinks COVID can be eliminated. What people is Prasad talking about?
I'm 99.9% confident that the "online zealots" he's talking about aren't CDC employees.  He's talking about people on Twitter, the NYT, and other professional-class spaces that are driving the mainstream national narrative on covid.  A large segment of those people are still operating under zero-covid assumptions.  (You see a lot of that in the FFA thread, as well).

Edit: Remember when the CDC dropped its mask recommendations back in May (?) and everybody at the NYT freaked out over it?  That's almost certainly who he's talking about.

 
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I think he's essentially right, but Prasad sets up a straw man part way through his thread:

I'd be flummoxed if there's anyone actually working at the CDC that thinks COVID can be eliminated. What people is Prasad talking about?

Also, Prasad contines:

I'll charitably assume he's right without checking ... but if so, there's nothing wrong with (a) Wallensky embracing zero COVID back when that looked possible and then (b) later abandoning the prospect when much more has been learned about the virus.

I don't expect public health leaders to be psychic. I do expect them to step out onto the tree limbs and make best-they-can calls with incomplete information, and then for be flexible and adjust as information accumulates. IMHO, inconsistent positions -- over time and in response to changing information -- is not a problem.
Good points and I don't think your wrong. 

The only thing I'd say is as a scientist (and really the head scientist) why embrace an outcome that has not been scientifically proven.  That seems "anti-scientific".  If she wanted to say something like we of course hope we can eliminate covid completely but there is no evidence to suggest we can...sure optimism never hurts.  But in her role facts are what matters.

And to Prasad's point, that is what puts her in such a difficult position...she put herself there by promoting an idea that science hadn't backed.

 
I'm 99.9% confident that the "online zealots" he's talking about aren't CDC employees. 
I see when Prasad talks about Walensky's "base", I didn't think in terms of a political base because she is not a politician.

Prasad is a little too invested in the politics here. Is he coming from an honest, good-faith place?

 
I'm 99.9% confident that the "online zealots" he's talking about aren't CDC employees.  He's talking about people on Twitter, the NYT, and other professional-class spaces that are driving the mainstream national narrative on covid.  A large segment of those people are still operating under zero-covid assumptions.  (You see a lot of that in the FFA thread, as well).

Edit: Remember when the CDC dropped its mask recommendations back in May (?) and everybody at the NYT freaked out over it?  That's almost certainly who he's talking about.
Correct, it wasn't too long ago that it was very much the talking point here that the unvaccinated and people not wearing masks were responsible for covid still existing.

I think the unvaccinated are making a poor decision and unnecessarily straining our healthcare system today...but the talking point was never accurate.

 
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I see when Prasad talks about Walensky's "base", I didn't think in terms of a political base because she is not a politician.

Prasad is a little too invested in the politics here. Is he coming from an honest, good-faith place?
I think he thinks the health community making the decisions regarding covid have made many errors.  I don't see that as bad faith.  He doesn't strike me as a Trumper or political zealot though.

 
The only thing I'd say is as a scientist (and really the head scientist) why embrace an outcome that has not been scientifically proven.  That seems "anti-scientific".  If she wanted to say something like we of course hope we can eliminate covid completely but there is no evidence to suggest we can...sure optimism never hurts.  But in her role facts are what matters.
I don't necessarily trust Prasad to give me the goods on something like this ... looks like he wants to play "gotcha!" with Walensky.

Did Walensky in fact embrace a zero-COVID policy? Could I find that looking strictly through non-right-wing sources?

EDIT: Hmmm ... my read of the John Snow memo is that it's not a zero-COVID policy at all. Prasad was tweeting in bad faith about Walensky, even if he was largely right about the other stuff.
 

 
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I see when Prasad talks about Walensky's "base", I didn't think in terms of a political base because she is not a politician.

Prasad is a little too invested in the politics here. Is he coming from an honest, good-faith place?
All leadership is political.  It's not possible to rise to the top of any bureaucracy without engaging in politics, maintaining a base of support, having a network of allies, etc.  That's what he's talking about.  I'm positive he knows that Walensky is not an elected official.

Edit: Anyway, I don't know if I agree with his analysis of Walensky's position, but that wasn't the part of the threat that I thought was interesting.  I'm mainly in agreement with where he sees things going, i.e. back to normal, kicking and screaming.

 
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Edit: Anyway, I don't know if I agree with his analysis of Walensky's position, but that wasn't the part of the threat that I thought was interesting.  I'm mainly in agreement with where he sees things going, i.e. back to normal, kicking and screaming.
In the end, it probably doesn't matter to us schlubs on the ground who the CDC director is. I agree with you that Prasad is likely correct about the broader points in his thread.

 
Also, the John Snow memo dates from October 14, 2020. That's so far back in "COVID time" that I wouldn't hold anything about the memo against anyone. That was before we even really worried about variants yet. I think Alpha and Beta were just coming on the scene then. Maybe.

 
Also, the John Snow memo dates from October 14, 2020. That's so far back in "COVID time" that I wouldn't hold anything about the memo against anyone. That was before we even really worried about variants yet. I think Alpha and Beta were just coming on the scene then. Maybe.
I agree with you in general that "gotcha-ing" is not productive.  The issue is that throughout the whole pandemic there has been a series of demonizing, politicizing, scientific over-reach and some outright lies.  Right or wrong that stuff doesn't get forgotten.

 
The number of COVID patients at Miami's Jackson Health System are leveling off at about 500 just below the peak in the Jul-Sep 2020 delta surge. It's been about 80% unvaxxed, 10% vaxxed immunocompromised transplant patients and 10% vaxxed-other for a while. And about half are testing positive in the hospital after being admitted for a non-covid reason.

One doc there does a further breakdown that needs to get more attention as the epidemic evolves and some say, "see vaccines don't work." Among those hospitalized, the unvaccinated are disproportionately using ICU, and it's not even close. About 95% of those admitted for non-covid reasons and then testing positive are vaxxed and coming for important treatment or procedures.

>>Let’s do the numbers: from 360 unvaccinated, most are using our ICU/IMCU (~80%), only 5% of the 49 vaccinated are in ICU/IMCU and here for unrelated symptoms to COVID (heart attack, stroke or chronic diseases) bottom line vaccines work to keep you watching Netflix at home.<<

>*Don’t be confused, from those 206 95% are vaccinated! Simple math, vaccines help you to get to the hospital for something important like your cancer treatment, your stoke and your heart attack, don’t get vaccinated and you will be the one using our ICU beds and yes dying.<<

https://twitter.com/david_delaz/status/1478784185225596931?s=19

https://twitter.com/david_delaz/status/1477704096098443266?t=ojCA-ibo0Ct9l0Qc8j2oRg&s=19

 
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RavenFan said:
Yes, Omicron changed the percentage hugely.  This strain is so contagious that it's infecting multiple times the number of people the original strain and delta strain infected.  Naturally more folks will be admitted to the hospital not for Covid but who have Covid. 


jobarules said:
I think thats fair
Was going to address this in the FFA thread, we were discussing it there too. Good answer by RavenFan, the impact of the with Covid/for Covid admissions is much more pronounced now with Omicron because the infection rate is so high in the overall community that even many non-Covid admissions are testing positive now compared to how it was with previous strains. They need to start breaking out the numbers for a better view into the severity, i.e. Covid cases requiring admission. 

 
Was going to address this in the FFA thread, we were discussing it there too. Good answer by RavenFan, the impact of the with Covid/for Covid admissions is much more pronounced now with Omicron because the infection rate is so high in the overall community that even many non-Covid admissions are testing positive now compared to how it was with previous strains. They need to start breaking out the numbers for a better view into the severity, i.e. Covid cases requiring admission. 
Miami's large Jackson Health has been doing daily twitter updates for over a year on COVID admissions and more recently they break it down into multiple categories including those who test positive subsequent to admission. And now, I see one of their doctors, David Joseph De La Zerda, doing a further breakdown by severity. The unvaxxed, not the vaxxed who test positive after being admitted for cancer treatment, heart disease, etc are taxing their ICUs. See my post above

From today:

>>Jackson Health System hospitals currently have 499 patients who have tested positive for COVID-19.
Of those, 253 patients - or 51% - are admitted to the hospital primarily for non-COVID reasons. Of the 499, 118 are vaccinated, 59 of whom are immunocompromised transplant patients.<<

https://twitter.com/JacksonHealth/status/1479817865041694723?t=NWY2H0RNXS7ZQ7KjV3B6XA&s=19

 
Miami's large Jackson Health has been doing daily twitter updates for over a year on COVID admissions and more recently they break it down into multiple categories including those who test positive subsequent to admission. And now, I see one of their doctors, David Joseph De La Zerda, doing a further breakdown by severity. The unvaxxed, not the vaxxed who test positive after being admitted for cancer treatment, heart disease, etc are taxing their ICUs. See my post above

From today:

>>Jackson Health System hospitals currently have 499 patients who have tested positive for COVID-19.
Of those, 253 patients - or 51% - are admitted to the hospital primarily for non-COVID reasons. Of the 499, 118 are vaccinated, 59 of whom are immunocompromised transplant patients.<<

https://twitter.com/JacksonHealth/status/1479817865041694723?t=NWY2H0RNXS7ZQ7KjV3B6XA&s=19
Hopefully this thing is so contagious that this will be the last surge we see from Covid.  I'm fine if folks choose to go unvaxxed as long as they don't clog up hospitals and prevent medical care for the rest of us.  

The unvaxxed are welcome to take whatever risk they want as long as their actions don't impact the rest of us.  In fact, I think that's a decent philosophy about lots of stuff. 

 
Just saw that De Santis recently said: when you think about it, we never tested ourselves before COVID to see if we were sick.  

People want this guy to be President?  

 
I still think the fastest way to clear out the hospitals is to start making people run things through their insurance leaving the balance of charges to the individual. 

 
Just saw that De Santis recently said: when you think about it, we never tested ourselves before COVID to see if we were sick.  

People want this guy to be President?  
To be fair hes having to explain away why the state had to dump thousands of tests despite the demand as well as how his order of 15K mknoclonal antibody treatments from Regeneron (sp?) are going to help with the Omicron problem we have. 

Hes dug himself into a no win proposition with anyone paying attention to what hes saying. Fortunately for him his base supporters dont care and there are plenty in the state foe him to ride. 

 
Just saw that De Santis recently said: when you think about it, we never tested ourselves before COVID to see if we were sick.  

People want this guy to be President?  
He's basically right.  There's a decent argument in favor of doing a lot of testing right now -- literally at this particular moment in time -- because we need to be taking reasonable steps to mitigate the crush on hospitals.  But most people who get ordinary respiratory viruses never bother to get tested to see what particular respiratory virus they happen to have.  That's pretty much where we're headed with covid.

A year from now (say), nobody is going to suggest, let alone require, taking a covid test because you have cold-like symptoms.  We'll be treating covid like any other mild-to-moderate illness by then. 

 
If you want to know what the future of covid is, ask yourself what we did for influenza in 2019 and that's pretty much your answer.

 
He's basically right.  There's a decent argument in favor of doing a lot of testing right now -- literally at this particular moment in time -- because we need to be taking reasonable steps to mitigate the crush on hospitals.  But most people who get ordinary respiratory viruses never bother to get tested to see what particular respiratory virus they happen to have.  That's pretty much where we're headed with covid.

A year from now (say), nobody is going to suggest, let alone require, taking a covid test because you have cold-like symptoms.  We'll be treating covid like any other mild-to-moderate illness by then. 
He'll be basically right once all these things you lay out for the future actually happen.  It's incorrect now, in this moment.  You're talking out both sides of your mouth with your first two sentences.

 
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I still think the fastest way to clear out the hospitals is to start making people run things through their insurance leaving the balance of charges to the individual. 
They will still clog up the hospital.  This will just leave you with a bunch on bankrupt unvaccinated people.  

But maybe not offering insurance for a Covid hospital stay would have pushed more people to get vaccinated.

 
He's basically right.  There's a decent argument in favor of doing a lot of testing right now -- literally at this particular moment in time -- because we need to be taking reasonable steps to mitigate the crush on hospitals.  But most people who get ordinary respiratory viruses never bother to get tested to see what particular respiratory virus they happen to have.  That's pretty much where we're headed with covid.

A year from now (say), nobody is going to suggest, let alone require, taking a covid test because you have cold-like symptoms.  We'll be treating covid like any other mild-to-moderate illness by then. 
We test ourselves all the time to see if we have illnesses.  If you want to put it in a box of “cold-like symptoms”, then okay?  I guess?

and I would be careful about predicting what will and will not be the norm with respect to COVID next year.  

 
He's basically right.  There's a decent argument in favor of doing a lot of testing right now -- literally at this particular moment in time -- because we need to be taking reasonable steps to mitigate the crush on hospitals.  But most people who get ordinary respiratory viruses never bother to get tested to see what particular respiratory virus they happen to have.  That's pretty much where we're headed with covid.

A year from now (say), nobody is going to suggest, let alone require, taking a covid test because you have cold-like symptoms.  We'll be treating covid like any other mild-to-moderate illness by then. 
Yep.  Case numbers have become basically worthless at this point.  It’s all about hospitalizations and deaths.  

 
They will still clog up the hospital.  This will just leave you with a bunch on bankrupt unvaccinated people.  

But maybe not offering insurance for a Covid hospital stay would have pushed more people to get vaccinated.
So are we for coverage for preexisting conditions or not?

 
So are we for coverage for preexisting conditions or not?
Unvaccinated is pre-existing?

I think a closer analogy would be the increased insurance cost for a smoker.  If the unvaxxinated do not have to pay more for health insurance (despite costing insurers more), Why should smokers pay more?

 
But maybe not offering insurance for a Covid hospital stay would have pushed more people to get vaccinated.


Wow.  Pretty sure if this had ever been tried in the past insurance companies would have been accused of letting people die in the name of profits.  Have we ever done this for insurance for any legit disease in the past, ever?  Seems like a dangerous precedent to set.

 
Wow.  Pretty sure if this had ever been tried in the past insurance companies would have been accused of letting people die in the name of profits.  Have we ever done this for insurance for any legit disease in the past, ever?  Seems like a dangerous precedent to set.
Insurers do it for people that smoke.  Maybe one of the consequences is that people give u[ smoking to get cheaper insurance.

 
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Insurers do it for people that smoke.  Maybe one of the consequences is that people give u[ smoking to get cheaper insurance.


Uh, this is what I replied to:

But maybe not offering insurance for a Covid hospital stay would have pushed more people to get vaccinated.


There are insurance companies that deny hospital stays to smokers?  First I've heard of that.

 
So are we for coverage for preexisting conditions or not?
This really has nothing to do with what was being discussed....at all.  If you go back and read what I actually said you'd see I stated specifically that we need to be running things through the existing insurance process.  So, whatever your current insurance says it will cover, they will cover.  Pre-existing conditions aren't part of the equation at all.  Your insurance would pay for COVID treatments just like it would any other viral treatments and you'd pay the rest, just like with any other viral treatments.

 
Wow.  Pretty sure if this had ever been tried in the past insurance companies would have been accused of letting people die in the name of profits.  Have we ever done this for insurance for any legit disease in the past, ever?  Seems like a dangerous precedent to set.
Yes...see lifetime limits on cancer treatments.  A majority of those plans meet their max in the first or second year of treatment.  That's why additional cancer insurance exists.  Of course, this changed a bit with Obamacare, but it happened all the time prior to that.

 
lol, Twitter kills me

It would be more accurate to say the people on twitter...but the stuff that twitter promotes is just comical at times.

Here was the other trending:

A reality star who says she made $200K from selling her farts in Mason jars is pivoting to selling them as NFTs

 
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It doesn't matter from a resource-management standpoint. If a trauma patient turns out to have incidental COVID, that trauma patient still ends up needing to be isolated from non-COVID patients, thus using a bed and however many nurses in the COVID ward.


it matter that they didn't go to the hospital for covid -  that is the part that matters when reporting on surges etc

 
Changing Covid paradigm

Pretty interesting tweet-thread, makes sense to me.


Someone may someday ask if it made sense to boost 12-year-old boys with essentially no efficacy data...

isn't that the truth ? taking a group of people (18 and younger) that has had what, 400 deaths in 2 years with almost all of them dying from something else but having covid and pushing shots/boosters

its unreal - truly

 
I like this guy

Vinay Prasad, MD MPH 

@VPrasadMDMPH

·

Jan 7

Optimize your medical problems, lose weight, get vaccinated, and get on with life. That was always the right answer. Everything else is a fools errand.

Oh. And, For all the people who think masks will keep flu away forever. Flu will find us all soon and it will punish us twice as bad for avoiding it. There is no avoiding respiratory viruses. They only exist because we must be close to each other to truly live.

 

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