Reranking the qbs (1 Viewer)

[bostonfred]

There were some significant developments at quarterback this week. If this had been preseason week 4, I probably would have changed my rankings headed into the draft. I don't mean that some quarterbacks scored more and some scored less. I am sure some people have moved peyton to the top of their rankings, and others haven't. It doesn't matter, you were never benching rodgers, brees or peyton. I mean structural changes. For example:

- Tony Romo has bruised ribs and Bryant has a foot sprain. Neither is expected to miss time, but I think I would drop him a spot or two for now and look to trade for him later in the season if everyone is healthy and his owner is looking to upgrade after a disappointing start.

- Vick looked insanely good the first half of that game yesterday, but he was walking gingerly after his long run. Injuries were already a factor. Do you move him up or down? Which qbs would you start him over?

- Eli got good performances from all three receivers and his tight end. That is clearly the recipe for him to succeed: when both nicks and martellus missed time last year, he had a down year. The emergence of randle seemed like a nice insurance policy for nicks and cruz's bruised heel, but I wasn't expecting him to have 100 yard potential with both of them healthy. Eli has been a legit low end qb1 in the past. Do you move him up?

- Russel wilson struggled against an improved carolina defense with a good front seven, but not much of a defensive backfield. He did throw for over 300 yards, but led the seahawks to just 12 points and one passing td. I didn't watch the game, though, so I'm curious if anyone can shed light on his performance.

- Matthew Stafford was an intriguing prospect headed into the draft because his absurdly low passing td totals seemed to have nowhere to go but up, especially with their biggest back inactive week 1. I figured their relatively smurfy backfield could lead to more short td receptions, and fewer td rushes. Is the continued emergence of joique bell an impediment to staffords td potential?

- Brady was able to squeeze a couple touchdowns out of julian edelman, and a hundred yard game from amendola. But if amendola's groin is an issue, or kenbrell's four catches on 14 targets don't improve, there may not be many more rabbits in this hat. Sudfeld isn't healthy, and tipped a pass into the air that turned into an interception so he may be in the doghouse. Boyce snuck on the field a couple times, but didn't do anything. Brady seems benchable until gronk comes back.

Anyone else? Any thoughts on how you would rank these guys for the next few weeks/rest of the season?

 

[We Tigers]

It's week one, so I wouldn't change much except moving Kaep from the "potential star" category to "star." When your first 300-yard game is a 400-yard game, you've got it.

 

[Hybrid]

I don't understand why people would be ranking Vick any differently. He'll be a top5-10 QB when healthy but he will get most likely get hurt at some point in the season, just like usual.

 

[shadyridr]

I think ya gotta move Brady down to the bottom half of the top 12. Lack of weapons for now

Romo was in the bottom half of the top 12 and still is IMO. Nothing changed

Wilson was in the bottom half and still is IMO. Not much changed

Kaep moves up right at #4 IMO after the big 3.

Manning moves to #1. Too many weapons

Stafford is gonna throw for alot of yards but for whatever reason just cant make the TDs happen.

RG3 out of the top 12 since it doesnt look like he is gonna run much

Newton played the Seahawks. Not gonna react much

My new top 12:

Manning

Brees

Rodgers

Kaepernick

Ryan

Newton

Brady

Romo

Luck

Stafford

Wilson

Manning

 

[timschochet]

I think ya gotta move Brady down to the bottom half of the top 12. Lack of weapons for now

Romo was in the bottom half of the top 12 and still is IMO. Nothing changed

Wilson was in the bottom half and still is IMO. Not much changed

Kaep moves up right at #4 IMO after the big 3.

Manning moves to #1. Too many weapons

Stafford is gonna throw for alot of yards but for whatever reason just cant make the TDs happen.

RG3 out of the top 12 since it doesnt look like he is gonna run much

Newton played the Seahawks. Not gonna react much

My new top 12:

Manning

Brees

Rodgers

Kaepernick

Ryan

Newton

Brady

Romo

Luck

Stafford

Wilson

Manning

So long as Vick is healthy, he should be in your top 3-4.

 

[Bills_Fan11]

Agree with the first couple replies. I already had Stafford/Kaepernick at the top of the Ryan/Wilson/RG3/Romo/Luck tier before week 1 (shameless brag I guess) so not much changes for me.

 

[munygon2]

Schaub put up a nice stat line last night, wish I had started him over Romo - but who knew. I'm guessing it's because they were playing catch up the whole time, but any reason to think he will have to air it out more this year? He has quality receivers/TE's to throw to, especially with the emergence of Nuk Hopkins.

 

[kd1]

I'd lower Ryan to the bottom couple of the top 10. White injury plus likely increased emphasis on running game puts him right around where he was before 2012, imo. And yes, Kaep takes a leap.

 

[GulfTider]

I'd lower Ryan to the bottom couple of the top 10. White injury plus likely increased emphasis on running game puts him right around where he was before 2012, imo. And yes, Kaep takes a leap.

Line looked bad against Saints pass rush too. Probably one of the worst Dlines they face this year

 

[Man of Zen]

Maybe something, maybe nothing, but the "Big Four" as far as teams who made the read-option a dedicated part of their overall offensive scheme last year, and their QB rushing numbers for week one this year...

Kaepernick: 7/22/0

Newton: 5/38/0

Wilson: 5/7/0

Griffin: 5/24/0

All these guys had up weeks and down weeks in the past, too. But of course, that wasn't after NFL DC's said they were going to sell out to stop those QB's from eating them up on the ground. All four with minimalist rushing #'s in week one...coincidence?

We'll see, but it bears keeping an eye on. All four of those guys take a major value hit if there's anything to the decline.

We'll see.

 

[Johnny Blood]

I don't know about rankings, but Eli is always undervalued. It just never ends. It's quite possible his owner in your league undervalues him, especially if he has a top QB ahead of Eli. I'd try to acquire him.

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

-- I know you aren't looking for anything on Manning, but the confirmation that he now has four legitimate weapons and possibly no running game means he's in for an even bigger season. I'm sure some people pegged that right, but I'm not sure most people had the magnitude of it.

-- I think Vick gets downgraded. He went from risky to super-duper, unbelievably, sure-to-get-hurt-soon risky for me. There were times on McCoy's cutbacks where Vick was running 20 yards downfield to throw himself into the pile trying to block. At this point it's for sure that the guy has no sense of self-preservation at all. Foles has value.

-- Upgrade Kaep. He proved he's a true pick your poison guy. Do what you need to do to take away the run and he'll drop a bomb on you with his arm. He's Randall Cunningham, only better.

-- I want to see another game, but it may be time to upgrade Rivers some. Forget the somewhat flukey TDs, only two sacks and one turnover against the Texans was a surprise (6.3 NY/A). Especially when you look at the players he was throwing to.

-- Downgrade Griffin, at least for now. IMO he was more than just 'rusty' -- he looked 'not right'. I'd want to see something like the guy I saw last year before I trusted in him.

-- Massive upgrade to Pryor. He pretty much locked down the starting job and was a better in the passing game than expected (6.9 NY/A). He was one McFadden tip toe away from having a big game.

-- Downgrade Brady at least until Gronk comes back.

-- I need a new word for Roethlisberger. What means 'downgrade', only more? I expect FEMA will be called in to help with the Steelers' offense before the end of the season.

 

[goodoldalky]

I don't know about rankings, but Eli is always undervalued. It just never ends. It's quite possible his owner in your league undervalues him, especially if he has a top QB ahead of Eli. I'd try to acquire him.

I agree. I have had him a couple of previous seasons. The only thing that sucks about him, and it happens every year, is he will put up 2-3 absolutely horrendous 200 yard, 0 TD, 4 INT stat lines. As long as those don't knock you out of the playoffs, you're good.

 

[Man of Zen]

-- I need a new word for Roethlisberger. What means 'downgrade', only more? I expect FEMA will be called in to help with the Steelers' offense before the end of the season.

I'm not sure Roethlisberger doesn't end up throwing more than we thought. The receivers are looking like the strength of that team, plus Miller coming back soon.

They may be playing from behind more often than not.

I'm not ready to rely on him, but I think if anything, this past weekend may have tweaked his value upward a bit.

 

[We Tigers]

Stafford is gonna throw for alot of yards but for whatever reason just cant make the TDs happen.

What does this even mean? He threw for 41 in 2011 and already has 2, the same number as Brady and Brees, Luck, Ryan, and many others. Quarterbacks gonna quarterback.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

I think Stafford is going to finish top 5 this year. Adding Bush to that offense clearly makes them much more dynamic.

He put up a very respectable 357/2, but was a hair away from having it be 380/4.

 

[shadyridr]

I think ya gotta move Brady down to the bottom half of the top 12. Lack of weapons for now

Romo was in the bottom half of the top 12 and still is IMO. Nothing changed

Wilson was in the bottom half and still is IMO. Not much changed

Kaep moves up right at #4 IMO after the big 3.

Manning moves to #1. Too many weapons

Stafford is gonna throw for alot of yards but for whatever reason just cant make the TDs happen.

RG3 out of the top 12 since it doesnt look like he is gonna run much

Newton played the Seahawks. Not gonna react much

My new top 12:

Manning

Brees

Rodgers

Kaepernick

Ryan

Newton

Brady

Romo

Luck

Stafford

Wilson

Manning

So long as Vick is healthy, he should be in your top 3-4.

Its supposed to be porjections for ROS. hes gonna get hurt. Nothing has changed

 

[mphtrilogy]

1brees - indoors, max scoring head coach, history

2pmanning - in for a massive season, only knock would be last 4 games weather possibly

3arodgers - slight downgrade, weapons slightly downgraded and more emphasis on run

4brady- weapon downgrade

5kap-real deal

6ryan- slight downgrade with better run game

7wilson-real deal

8luck-real deal

9rgIII-looked ok to me in 2nd half

10cam-better D will lead to less comebacks, more conservative O

11stafford-might be ranked too low

12romo-slight injury and age concern here

13vick-massive injury concern, otherwise top 7

14eli-like above poster said, prepare for 3-4 stinkers

15dalton-should be rock solid all season, until the playoffs

16cpalmer-good fit for arians, good weapons, bad run game

17schaub-will throw more with hopkins

18bradford-more weapons to throw to

19rivers-looks better this year

20roeth-might need to be bumped out of top 20 soon...

 

[shadyridr]

Stafford is gonna throw for alot of yards but for whatever reason just cant make the TDs happen.

What does this even mean? He threw for 41 in 2011 and already has 2, the same number as Brady and Brees, Luck, Ryan, and many others. Quarterbacks gonna quarterback.

Just splitting hairs to differentiate some of these QBs. Last year he threw 20 Tds because something always seemed to happen (like someone not completing the process, someone getting a toe out of bounds, someone falling down at the 1 yd line). Those same flukey things happened again on Sunday (Calvin barely missing 2 TDs, multiple 1yd TD runs).

 

[kd1]

-- I need a new word for Roethlisberger. What means 'downgrade', only more? I expect FEMA will be called in to help with the Steelers' offense before the end of the season.

I'm not sure Roethlisberger doesn't end up throwing more than we thought. The receivers are looking like the strength of that team, plus Miller coming back soon.

They may be playing from behind more often than not.

I'm not ready to rely on him, but I think if anything, this past weekend may have tweaked his value upward a bit.

Those were my exact thoughts on Big Ben before the season started. Week 1 left a sour taste in my mouth. I realize it's being fickle, but would like to see him stat up a game or 2 before trusting him again.

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

1brees - indoors, max scoring head coach, history

2pmanning - in for a massive season, only knock would be last 4 games weather possibly

3arodgers - slight downgrade, weapons slightly downgraded and more emphasis on run

4brady- weapon downgrade

5kap-real deal

6ryan- slight downgrade with better run game

7wilson-real deal

8luck-real deal

9rgIII-looked ok to me in 2nd half

10cam-better D will lead to less comebacks, more conservative O

11stafford-might be ranked too low

12romo-slight injury and age concern here

13vick-massive injury concern, otherwise top 7

14eli-like above poster said, prepare for 3-4 stinkers

15dalton-should be rock solid all season, until the playoffs

16cpalmer-good fit for arians, good weapons, bad run game

17schaub-will throw more with hopkins

18bradford-more weapons to throw to

19rivers-looks better this year

20roeth-might need to be bumped out of top 20 soon...

I think palmer belongs up near #8

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

-- I need a new word for Roethlisberger. What means 'downgrade', only more? I expect FEMA will be called in to help with the Steelers' offense before the end of the season.

I'm not sure Roethlisberger doesn't end up throwing more than we thought. The receivers are looking like the strength of that team, plus Miller coming back soon.

They may be playing from behind more often than not.

I'm not ready to rely on him, but I think if anything, this past weekend may have tweaked his value upward a bit.

I disagree about the WRs. It's mostly a bunch of guys at this point. They'll put up #s for the reasons you mention, but they aren't scaring anyone.

Also, Roeth's willingness to hold the ball to try and make a play may finally get him completely killed instead of just dinged up.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

1. Brees

2. Manning -In for an outstanding year.

3. Rodgers -Improved Finley may offset loss of Jennings.

4. Cam -Still is entirety of that offense. Don't downgrade because they played Seattle week 1.

5. Stafford -Gonna throw it +/- 45 times every game, with Calvin and Bush catching a lot of them. TDs will come, and in bunches.

6. Kaep -He's very good. Just don't over react to week 1. Packers were missing 2 of their best DBs.

7. Ryan -Better run game, White not gonna be himself for a while.

8. Brady -Loss of weapons is going to matter.

9. Romo -Assuming he doesn't have a significant rib injury.

10. RG3 -Don't think he'll be as dynamic this season. Still a legit QB1 though.

11. Luck -Not sure I trust his weapons outside of Wayne.

12. Eli -As previously mentioned, some clunkers will be mixed in with 400/3 weeks.

13. Wilson -He and Kaep have the best run games and defenses of the bunch.

14. Vick. Obviously injury is the concern here.

 

[jwp]

I think ya gotta move Brady down to the bottom half of the top 12. Lack of weapons for now

Romo was in the bottom half of the top 12 and still is IMO. Nothing changed

Wilson was in the bottom half and still is IMO. Not much changed

Kaep moves up right at #4 IMO after the big 3.

Manning moves to #1. Too many weapons

Stafford is gonna throw for alot of yards but for whatever reason just cant make the TDs happen.

RG3 out of the top 12 since it doesnt look like he is gonna run much

Newton played the Seahawks. Not gonna react much

My new top 12:

Manning

Brees

Rodgers

Kaepernick

Ryan

Newton

Brady

Romo

Luck

Stafford

Wilson

Manning

So long as Vick is healthy, he should be in your top 3-4.

Its supposed to be porjections for ROS. hes gonna get hurt. Nothing has changed

Oh cool, you must have a crystal ball or something. Can you give me the rest of the list you know will get hurt? That way I can just go ahead and cut them now. TIA.

 

[Tau837]

-- I know you aren't looking for anything on Manning, but the confirmation that he now has four legitimate weapons and possibly no running game means he's in for an even bigger season. I'm sure some people pegged that right, but I'm not sure most people had the magnitude of it.

-- I think Vick gets downgraded. He went from risky to super-duper, unbelievably, sure-to-get-hurt-soon risky for me. There were times on McCoy's cutbacks where Vick was running 20 yards downfield to throw himself into the pile trying to block. At this point it's for sure that the guy has no sense of self-preservation at all. Foles has value.

-- Upgrade Kaep. He proved he's a true pick your poison guy. Do what you need to do to take away the run and he'll drop a bomb on you with his arm. He's Randall Cunningham, only better.

-- I want to see another game, but it may be time to upgrade Rivers some. Forget the somewhat flukey TDs, only two sacks and one turnover against the Texans was a surprise (6.3 NY/A). Especially when you look at the players he was throwing to.

-- Downgrade Griffin, at least for now. IMO he was more than just 'rusty' -- he looked 'not right'. I'd want to see something like the guy I saw last year before I trusted in him.

-- Massive upgrade to Pryor. He pretty much locked down the starting job and was a better in the passing game than expected (6.9 NY/A). He was one McFadden tip toe away from having a big game.

-- Downgrade Brady at least until Gronk comes back.

-- I need a new word for Roethlisberger. What means 'downgrade', only more? I expect FEMA will be called in to help with the Steelers' offense before the end of the season.

 

[Man of Zen]

1. Rodgers - He's the guy every year, the team looks nice and loaded with targets, and the D looks soft enough that they're going to be in shootouts a-plenty. Will always do some damage on the ground. May be his biggest year to date.

2. Brees - Everything status quo. Brees + healthy targets + Payton back calling plays = all-but-sure-fire top 3 result.

3. P. Manning - Best weapons of anyone, and only the fact that he's shown wear and tear on the arm and body late in each of the last few seasons, plus the fact that there's clearly some zip lost from the fastball place him at the bottom of the stellar top tier. Could easily be #1, but goes 3rd just for the relative uncertainty factor surrounding his age and mileage.

4. Kaepernick - Even though he didn't run much week one, he certainly showed he's evolved plenty enough to get it done through the air when he has to. I'm really not as big a believer as most in that stable of RB's, either. So I believe that even if the read-option/pistol isn't as effective any more, he's still going to get his share of work rushing down near the GL.

5. Matt Stafford - Guy's a 5k machine, and has the best receiver in the game, plus the best receiving back in the game.

6. Brady - He's Brady. The running game is a shambles, but that line is going to keep giving him time. He'll get it done.

7. E. Manning - Again, the running game is a shambles, but he's more fully stocked with receiving weapons than he's ever been. The D may allow shootouts, and the line is better pass protecting than run blocking. I think he posts career-bests across the board, except maybe for INT's, which are a def. problem if your league penalizes them heavily.

8. Matt Ryan - Best top 2 WR's in the game, and plenty of willingness to chuck it to them deep. A very safe bet.

9. M. Vick - Only down here because of the obvious tendency to regard his personal safety so lightly. Should be a monster in CK's system.

10. Bradford - He's accurate, now loaded with weapons, has no legit running game, and coaches who seem willing to turn him loose. I may be the only one who loved Austin's debut. We saw with a healthy Amendola last year how much Bradford likes to use his slot guy to move the chains. And Austin's the most dynamic one to enter the league, maybe ever. 7 looks and a run in his first live game action ever? I'm buying that, plus Cook, plus the freaky athletic wideouts.

11. Romo - Big numbers every year, and loaded at the skills. Pushed down slightly because he and Dez are already dinged, but big things are afoot for the Big D passing game.

12. Luck - Already, probably a top 3 talent. Not sure the new system is going to be as pass-friendly as we'd like. Be interested to see how things go when Bradshaw is healthy -- should give him another target, and a better pass blocker.

13. Newton - I hesitate -- and hesitate mightily -- to put him this high. Smitty looks done, and if he can't find the room in the read-option he's found before, he may struggle to finish top 20. He's big enough though that even on a more traditional QB running-type offense, he could succeed with fairly low injury risk. I think his value may depend on how well the coaches do their job.

14. Griffin - They rushed him back, and he looks like a physical mess. He's too talented to ignore, but I've got 100x as much worry that he won't survive the season as I do for Vick. Skins are just a badly run organization, from top to bottom.

15. Pryor - May provide the model for Cam moving forward. A mediocre QB talent whose athleticism and willingness to use it should make him top 10 most weeks, with occasional turds because he can't actually throw the ball worth a damn. EJ probably belongs right here, too, but I'd pick Pryor if I had to pick one, because he looks like less of a real QB than EJ, and EJ's weapons aren't going to take him that far. If BUF panics and turns him loose on his feet, he soars. But for now, they probably won't.

***

Rivers, Palmer, Cutler, Smith - pretty much interchangeable. All going to be pass happy, and have enough receiving talent to do something with it. All have warts that keep them from the group above.

Flacco, Wilson, Dalton, Roethlisberger, Schaub, Freeman - All looking like game managers, for various reasons. Wilson the only one who could go back up, if the running abortion of week one proves to be an anomaly. But if the read-option can't be an every-game staple for SEA, he stays here.

Jets, Jags, Tannehill, Weeden, Locker, Ponder - I see nothing to recommend.

 

[Tau837]

Hard to believe anyone would say Rodgers is a slight downgrade after he just threw for 333/3/1 at SF. What tougher road game could a QB have in the opener?

 

[Tau837]

Wilson the only one who could go back up, if the running abortion of week one proves to be an anomaly. But if the read-option can't be an every-game staple for SEA, he stays here.

The Seahawks only ran the read option 52 times last season. Perhaps it was not as much of a staple as some thought.

 

[shadyridr]

I think ya gotta move Brady down to the bottom half of the top 12. Lack of weapons for now

Romo was in the bottom half of the top 12 and still is IMO. Nothing changed

Wilson was in the bottom half and still is IMO. Not much changed

Kaep moves up right at #4 IMO after the big 3.

Manning moves to #1. Too many weapons

Stafford is gonna throw for alot of yards but for whatever reason just cant make the TDs happen.

RG3 out of the top 12 since it doesnt look like he is gonna run much

Newton played the Seahawks. Not gonna react much

My new top 12:

Manning

Brees

Rodgers

Kaepernick

Ryan

Newton

Brady

Romo

Luck

Stafford

Wilson

Manning

So long as Vick is healthy, he should be in your top 3-4.

Its supposed to be porjections for ROS. hes gonna get hurt. Nothing has changed

Oh cool, you must have a crystal ball or something. Can you give me the rest of the list you know will get hurt? That way I can just go ahead and cut them now. TIA.

Sure... Danny Amendola, Ryan Mathews, Darren McFadden, DeMarco Murray

 

[zandbak]

So long as Vick is healthy, he should be in your top 3-4.

Its supposed to be porjections for ROS. hes gonna get hurt. Nothing has changed

Oh cool, you must have a crystal ball or something. Can you give me the rest of the list you know will get hurt? That way I can just go ahead and cut them now. TIA.

He's a 33 year old rushing QB that hasn't played a full season in 7 years. It would be foolish and incredibly nearsighted to expect him to play a full season. He might, but the odds are severely stacked against him.

 

[Junior McSpiffy]

I admit, I'm a Rams homer, but I am disturbed by the lack of bump for Bradford. He was only hit 6 times with zero sacks against a great-but-not-premium defense, collected 300 yards passing and a pair of TDs, and that was with a top-five corner removing his #1 option from the game. I would think that would bump him into the top of the "platoon" tier ahead of high-floor/low-ceiling guys like Flacco, Schaub and Dalton.

 

[kegger]

1 more to say move Stafford up/keep where he was projected.

Should be in that 5-7 area, gunna be Improved from Last year.

My new top 12:

Manning
Brees
Rodgers
Ryan and Kaepernick Same spot

Stafford

Brady

Romo and Eli Manning same spot

Luck
Newton
Wilson

I believe Newton is on an downward trend from the top.

(will have good weeks but overall down and not top teer)

Throw Bradford, Dalton, Schuab an RGIII/Vick in the next teer.

 

[Kitrick Taylor]

1. Rodgers - He's the guy every year, the team looks nice and loaded with targets, and the D looks soft enough that they're going to be in shootouts a-plenty. Will always do some damage on the ground. May be his biggest year to date.

2. Brees - Everything status quo. Brees + healthy targets + Payton back calling plays = all-but-sure-fire top 3 result.

3. P. Manning - Best weapons of anyone, and only the fact that he's shown wear and tear on the arm and body late in each of the last few seasons, plus the fact that there's clearly some zip lost from the fastball place him at the bottom of the stellar top tier. Could easily be #1, but goes 3rd just for the relative uncertainty factor surrounding his age and mileage.

4. Kaepernick - Even though he didn't run much week one, he certainly showed he's evolved plenty enough to get it done through the air when he has to. I'm really not as big a believer as most in that stable of RB's, either. So I believe that even if the read-option/pistol isn't as effective any more, he's still going to get his share of work rushing down near the GL.

5. Matt Stafford - Guy's a 5k machine, and has the best receiver in the game, plus the best receiving back in the game.

6. Brady - He's Brady. The running game is a shambles, but that line is going to keep giving him time. He'll get it done.

7. E. Manning - Again, the running game is a shambles, but he's more fully stocked with receiving weapons than he's ever been. The D may allow shootouts, and the line is better pass protecting than run blocking. I think he posts career-bests across the board, except maybe for INT's, which are a def. problem if your league penalizes them heavily.

8. Matt Ryan - Best top 2 WR's in the game, and plenty of willingness to chuck it to them deep. A very safe bet.

9. M. Vick - Only down here because of the obvious tendency to regard his personal safety so lightly. Should be a monster in CK's system.

10. Bradford - He's accurate, now loaded with weapons, has no legit running game, and coaches who seem willing to turn him loose. I may be the only one who loved Austin's debut. We saw with a healthy Amendola last year how much Bradford likes to use his slot guy to move the chains. And Austin's the most dynamic one to enter the league, maybe ever. 7 looks and a run in his first live game action ever? I'm buying that, plus Cook, plus the freaky athletic wideouts.

11. Romo - Big numbers every year, and loaded at the skills. Pushed down slightly because he and Dez are already dinged, but big things are afoot for the Big D passing game.

12. Luck - Already, probably a top 3 talent. Not sure the new system is going to be as pass-friendly as we'd like. Be interested to see how things go when Bradshaw is healthy -- should give him another target, and a better pass blocker.

13. Newton - I hesitate -- and hesitate mightily -- to put him this high. Smitty looks done, and if he can't find the room in the read-option he's found before, he may struggle to finish top 20. He's big enough though that even on a more traditional QB running-type offense, he could succeed with fairly low injury risk. I think his value may depend on how well the coaches do their job.

14. Griffin - They rushed him back, and he looks like a physical mess. He's too talented to ignore, but I've got 100x as much worry that he won't survive the season as I do for Vick. Skins are just a badly run organization, from top to bottom.

15. Pryor - May provide the model for Cam moving forward. A mediocre QB talent whose athleticism and willingness to use it should make him top 10 most weeks, with occasional turds because he can't actually throw the ball worth a damn. EJ probably belongs right here, too, but I'd pick Pryor if I had to pick one, because he looks like less of a real QB than EJ, and EJ's weapons aren't going to take him that far. If BUF panics and turns him loose on his feet, he soars. But for now, they probably won't.

***

Rivers, Palmer, Cutler, Smith - pretty much interchangeable. All going to be pass happy, and have enough receiving talent to do something with it. All have warts that keep them from the group above.

Flacco, Wilson, Dalton, Roethlisberger, Schaub, Freeman - All looking like game managers, for various reasons. Wilson the only one who could go back up, if the running abortion of week one proves to be an anomaly. But if the read-option can't be an every-game staple for SEA, he stays here.

Jets, Jags, Tannehill, Weeden, Locker, Ponder - I see nothing to recommend.

I think your list is solid, with three exceptions.

-Newton. Guy played Seattle this week. They have a nasty defense that's likely to be top 5 again this season. The game was a defensive struggle. More importantly, Cam has been a top 5 QB in both his first two years in the league. The coaches will open up the offense going forward, and Cam is a strong bet for another good finish.

-Tannehill. Not saying he's a starting FF QB, but he doesn't belong in the Locker/Ponder/Weeden group. Lots of new parts to that offense this year, and he put up decent numbers vs an underrated defense last week. I was impressed by his secondary weapons in Hartline and Gibson this week.

-Wilson. I think he's a bottom end QB1, and again you're over reacting to play versus a very good defensive front.

 

[Khy]

Maybe something, maybe nothing, but the "Big Four" as far as teams who made the read-option a dedicated part of their overall offensive scheme last year, and their QB rushing numbers for week one this year...

Kaepernick: 7/22/0

Newton: 5/38/0

Wilson: 5/7/0

Griffin: 5/24/0

All these guys had up weeks and down weeks in the past, too. But of course, that wasn't after NFL DC's said they were going to sell out to stop those QB's from eating them up on the ground. All four with minimalist rushing #'s in week one...coincidence?

We'll see, but it bears keeping an eye on. All four of those guys take a major value hit if there's anything to the decline.

We'll see.

Yeah I've seen a few people say "Downgrade for Griffin cause he looked afraid to run on the knee" and I was looking at other QB rushing numbers like this too. Besides Pryor nobody ran all that much and I don't even know that I'm 'upgrading Pryor" as I think a lot of that was that Indy was just unprepared. They went into that game assuming a free win and weren't ready for the running back that Oakland had being center (Pryor). I highly doubt he does that again now that teams will be a little more prepared for it.

1. Brees

2. Manning -In for an outstanding year.

3. Rodgers -Improved Finley may offset loss of Jennings.

4. Cam -Still is entirety of that offense. Don't downgrade because they played Seattle week 1.

5. Stafford -Gonna throw it +/- 45 times every game, with Calvin and Bush catching a lot of them. TDs will come, and in bunches.

6. Kaep -He's very good. Just don't over react to week 1. Packers were missing 2 of their best DBs.

7. Ryan -Better run game, White not gonna be himself for a while.

8. Brady -Loss of weapons is going to matter.

9. Romo -Assuming he doesn't have a significant rib injury.

10. RG3 -Don't think he'll be as dynamic this season. Still a legit QB1 though.

11. Luck -Not sure I trust his weapons outside of Wayne.

12. Eli -As previously mentioned, some clunkers will be mixed in with 400/3 weeks.

13. Wilson -He and Kaep have the best run games and defenses of the bunch.

14. Vick. Obviously injury is the concern here.

Disagree with not downgrading Cam. It had nothing to do with Seattle's defense, that offensive system looks extremely conservative. It could be they were being conservative just against the Seahawks. But I'm worried.

Disagree with RG3 at 10, I understand a lot of people were worried about last night but you should expect him to be a little rusty after having don't almost no training camp and no preseason snaps this season. People were saying the Broncos looked rusty and out of sync during the preseason and we saw how that turned out. He started to really come on late in the game and I'll expect him to be back to form this coming week after another full week of practice.

Kaep - People are anointing him Top 4 right now and I don't agree with it. Yes, he looked amazing. But lets temper expectations here a little bit. He was going pound for pound with Aaron Rodgers and against a very middle of the road defense in Green Bay. Lets wait until this weekend when he faces a real secondary and a team that doesn't have one of the best passing games in the NFL for the past 4-5 seasons before anointing him King Awesome. He was essentially forced to have this kind of game, I don't expect Harbaugh to have him running this kind of offense week in and week out.

Brady - I'll agree here, I think he gets a downgrade this season. The offense just looked shaky. If Brady can't put up a like 400 yard 4 TD game against a completely depleted and obliterated Buffalo secondary I don't have high hopes for any other matchup this season.

Matt Ryan - I just don't trust the offensive line to keep him upright. He'll be good sure, but with Roddy hurting and the offensive line being like a revolving door. I don't expect many great things. I'm still picking the Saints to win this division.

Michael Vick - I'd be shocked if he makes it out of Week 3 alive. I honestly don't recall a play that didn't result in him taking a hit last night. If the Falcons offensive line is a revolving door the Eagles offensive line are ghosts. In Week 3 the Eagles face down vs KC on Thursday night. Vick will be on a short weeks rest and KC just came out of a game where they sacked Blaine Gabbert 6 times. I'm fully expecting Vick to take some kind of significant injury during the game. He could barely walk last night and he only had 3 sacks. This isn't college football anymore, Chip Kelly can't run plays and blocking schemes like this in the NFL and expect his QB to survive 5 games let alone 16. You don't have some of the best offensive lineman in the country playing vs guys who wouldn't start for a good high school team.

 

[Hybrid]

I think ya gotta move Brady down to the bottom half of the top 12. Lack of weapons for now

Romo was in the bottom half of the top 12 and still is IMO. Nothing changed

Wilson was in the bottom half and still is IMO. Not much changed

Kaep moves up right at #4 IMO after the big 3.

Manning moves to #1. Too many weapons

Stafford is gonna throw for alot of yards but for whatever reason just cant make the TDs happen.

RG3 out of the top 12 since it doesnt look like he is gonna run much

Newton played the Seahawks. Not gonna react much

My new top 12:

Manning

Brees

Rodgers

Kaepernick

Ryan

Newton

Brady

Romo

Luck

Stafford

Wilson

Manning

So long as Vick is healthy, he should be in your top 3-4.

Its supposed to be porjections for ROS. hes gonna get hurt. Nothing has changed

Oh cool, you must have a crystal ball or something. Can you give me the rest of the list you know will get hurt? That way I can just go ahead and cut them now. TIA.

Since entering the league, he has played in 8, 15, 5, 15, 15, 16, 12, 12, 13, 10 games each season. I don't think it's out of line saying he gets hurt at some point this season and misses a few games, especially with that offensive line.

 

[financewonk]

IMO, rankings shouldn't change much after just one sample point. I will give Peyton and Kaepernick slight upgrades due to their spectacular performances, but I think it's a mistake to significantly downgrade RG3, Wilson and Newton.

 

[mphtrilogy]

RG3 looked not great in the first half, sorta like a guy who hadn't taken a hit in 8 mos, go figure, and the coaching staff played it safe with him.

Then he took a monster shot at the end of the first half, the team was down big into the 3rd and then I feel like he said, screw this,. let's play some football.

the Mid 3rd to the end of the game I thought he looked more like himself.

Still think he is a stud player.

 

[mphtrilogy]

Wilson threw for 320 had a long TD and played against what is a very underrated D, this might be his floor game.

 

[Bills_Fan11]

Cam has been top 5 over two separate 16game samples with the same lousy players around him; now he's not top 10 after 1 game?

 

[Man of Zen]

Cam has been top 5 over two separate 16game samples with the same lousy players around him; now he's not top 10 after 1 game?

Correct. The players around him are lousier, the NFL has shifted to a ruleset that directly neutralizes his only real skill, and lots of players have seen improved play and circumstances.

He's not a bad player. But shifts into and out of the top ten happen all the time. Getting ahead of them is all that makes you a contender.

 

[unckeyherb]

Eli will finish in the top 5 this year. Fully loaded weaponry, running game is questionable so he'll be chucking it a lot. Similar game as Sunday night, he'll make dumb mistakes which will be masked by the sheer volume of stats he'll accrue.

He will win a lot of FF championships this year as he was most likely drafted super late and will finish right alongside guys drafted in the second or third round.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Just a glut of good QBs right now in the NFL. A few HoF types but plenty of solid to great options week in and week out. Lot of good names that won't be in the top 12, what does the 2nd 12 look like?

 

[Man of Zen]

Just a glut of good QBs right now in the NFL. A few HoF types but plenty of solid to great options week in and week out. Lot of good names that won't be in the top 12, what does the 2nd 12 look like?

Totally agree with this. And possibly even more good "fantasy" options than simply good QB's. I'm in one league with nobody but Bradford and Pryor, and I'm pretty content, even though I'd be hating life if an NFL franchise I wanted to root for had Pryor at QB.

On balance, I think this plays out as kind of a snapback year, where pocket passing to receiving corps stocked with A-list talent pushes the running guys to supporting roles.

But ultimately, that's just a guess. There's some evidence to support it, but we'll see.

What I wrote above is simply my best guesses as a fan and an armchair analyst. If Cam and Russel Wilson have a couple big games on the ground coming up, I'll be forced to re-evaluate.

But since it's not *just* one data point -- but rather in this case, one data point that supports the suspicions I had and voiced in the pre-season -- I lend it a little more weight. It could all go teats up. That's the nature of a guessing game.

 

[financewonk]

But since it's not *just* one data point -- but rather in this case, one data point that supports the suspicions I had and voiced in the pre-season -- I lend it a little more weight. It could all go teats up. That's the nature of a guessing game.

If the data point supports your pre-season hypothesis, then I hope that the hypothesis was already built into your pre-season rankings. Therefore, I'm assuming that you already had Wilson, RG3, and Newton ranked lower than most other fantasy players, and I bet that you were much higher on Eli as well. My point is that it's not good practice to drastically change your opinions of players based on such a small sample, and I think that you would agree with me threre.

 

[JuniorNB]

I think we learned a few things:

Mike Vick is going to be a fantasy monster this year. Of course he will need to stay healthy to do so, but so will the rest of the league's QBs. 2 TDs in the air and another on the ground will be commonplace. So will 200+ throwing and 50+ running.

I think we underestimated how much of RG III's passing success was due to defenses needing to fear his running ability. Unless he can be a constant threat to run, he won't finish in the top 12.

Sam Bradford could creep into the top 12 with the weapons he has in St Louis. Cook looks like he's going to finally realize his potential and Tavon Austin and Chris Givens are going to demand respect all year long. I predict he finishes around #10 QB.

Peyton Manning's ridiculous choice of weapons makes him nearly indefensible. We all had him top 3. We may have been underestimating him.

 

[Captain Hook]

1brees - indoors, max scoring head coach, history

2pmanning - in for a massive season, only knock would be last 4 games weather possibly

3arodgers - slight downgrade, weapons slightly downgraded and more emphasis on run

4brady- weapon downgrade

5kap-real deal

6ryan- slight downgrade with better run game

7wilson-real deal

8luck-real deal

9rgIII-looked ok to me in 2nd half

10cam-better D will lead to less comebacks, more conservative O

11stafford-might be ranked too low

12romo-slight injury and age concern here

13vick-massive injury concern, otherwise top 7

14eli-like above poster said, prepare for 3-4 stinkers

15dalton-should be rock solid all season, until the playoffs

16cpalmer-good fit for arians, good weapons, bad run game

17schaub-will throw more with hopkins

18bradford-more weapons to throw to

19rivers-looks better this year

20roeth-might need to be bumped out of top 20 soon...

I think palmer belongs up near #8

I don't think so. Palmer is not very mobile and Levi Brown had Another atrocious game at LT and the Cards (sadly) don't have anyone better. They don't have runners good enough to take pressure off the rush so while Palmer still has a good arm and good WR, he will have to be lucky to stay off the ground.

Also don't forget that the Cardinals have one of the toughest schedules in the league.

 

[Warrior]

I don't know about rankings, but Eli is always undervalued. It just never ends. It's quite possible his owner in your league undervalues him, especially if he has a top QB ahead of Eli. I'd try to acquire him.

No, he's correctly valued. If you take the time to list out the top 12 QBs, I guarantee you can't make a legitimate case to have him in the top 10. Just try.

 

[TheGreatSpinks]

I don't know about rankings, but Eli is always undervalued. It just never ends. It's quite possible his owner in your league undervalues him, especially if he has a top QB ahead of Eli. I'd try to acquire him.

With Wilson losing confidence from the staff, and a bad defense, Eli is going to through the ball. A lot. I think he's more than capable of being the guy everyone is predicting Matt Ryan to be scoring wise.

 

[Man of Zen]

But since it's not *just* one data point -- but rather in this case, one data point that supports the suspicions I had and voiced in the pre-season -- I lend it a little more weight. It could all go teats up. That's the nature of a guessing game.

If the data point supports your pre-season hypothesis, then I hope that the hypothesis was already built into your pre-season rankings. Therefore, I'm assuming that you already had Wilson, RG3, and Newton ranked lower than most other fantasy players, and I bet that you were much higher on Eli as well. My point is that it's not good practice to drastically change your opinions of players based on such a small sample, and I think that you would agree with me threre.

Pretty much all correct. The two minor differences being I didn't think RG3 would look quite so physically bad, and I didn't suspect the only talented back in NY would do so much to earn doghouse time quite so fast.

I thought heading into the season that Wilson was one of the most overrated players in football, and Newton, while he had obviously had a couple good FF seasons, stood to lose more than almost anybody if defenses stepped up their option-specific gameplanning, because both his weapons and his traditional QB'ing skills are among the league's worst. Of the two, I think Newton has the best chance of surviving such a shift, because his raw athleticism can make him a Vick/Cunningham type terror even without the numbers game the option forces defenses to play. Without that numbers game, I just don't think Wilson is much more than a game manager.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

...

-- I want to see another game, but it may be time to upgrade Rivers some. Forget the somewhat flukey TDs, only two sacks and one turnover against the Texans was a surprise (6.3 NY/A). Especially when you look at the players he was throwing to.

...

What to make of Rivers. Four TDs is four TDs and the Texans are a quality D.

Lots of short stuff though. Really surprised by Royal's role. It seemed to be working until they shut it down. Terrible pick just like old times too.