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Reuben Droughns (1 Viewer)

Chaos

Footballguy
2005 stats

carries yards ave TDs rec yards TDs

309 1232 4.0 2 39 369 0

with the continued improvement of the O-line I say we bump him up to 4.5 ave per carry, are you with me so far. I also give him 3 more TDs in goalline situations because we can punch it in better with Bentley.

With the continued improvement of our DEF, I say we get more chances to run on offense. How about bumping carries up to 350? The additional carries and additional ypc should give him another 2 TDs.

So with all of this, we get

350 1575 4.5 7 39 369 0

235 fantasy points sounds pretty good to me. Especially if you can get him as a #3 or 4 RB

The downside is the total yards but I don't think any less than 1300 should be expected. The upside is the TD output which could go double digit if the Defense improves as much as I think it does.

What do you guys think?

 

gman8343

What would Lemmy do?
Not quite as high on him, but I do think Droughns will be a solid #2 rb with an outside shot at a #1. Alot is going to depend on how Charlie Frye progresses - there could be a ton of three and outs this season.

 

slimflop

Footballguy
2005 stats

carries yards ave TDs rec yards TDs

309 1232 4.0 2 39 369 0

with the continued improvement of the O-line I say we bump him up to 4.5 ave per carry, are you with me so far. I also give him 3 more TDs in goalline situations because we can punch it in better with Bentley.

With the continued improvement of our DEF, I say we get more chances to run on offense. How about bumping carries up to 350? The additional carries and additional ypc should give him another 2 TDs.

So with all of this, we get

350 1575 4.5 7 39 369 0

235 fantasy points sounds pretty good to me. Especially if you can get him as a #3 or 4 RB

The downside is the total yards but I don't think any less than 1300 should be expected. The upside is the TD output which could go double digit if the Defense improves as much as I think it does.

What do you guys think?
I agree with most of what you are saying and I believe most people feel the same way so you won't be able to get him as your 3/4 more like your #2 which is fine with me.
 

gman8343

What would Lemmy do?
I also don't think the jump to 4.5 yds a carry is going to happen. Maybe 4.2ish, but 4.5 at 300+ carries puts him in pretty elite territory.

 

Chaos

Footballguy
RB2 is more likely but most people still think of the Browns as the "Clowns" so I am thinking I might get him at the top of the #3's.

 

chedha

Footballguy
RB2 is more likely but most people still think of the Browns as the "Clowns" so I am thinking I might get him at the top of the #3's.
It really depends on how you draft for the first few rounds. If you go RB,RB,RB.. you can get droughns as a RB3 possibly 4. If you go RB,WR,WR or RB,WR,QB.. your chances of getting Droughns as a 3 or 4 aren't very good.
 

LTDynasty

Footballguy
As a Reuben Droughns owner I've been overfully hopefully in the recent weeks that the increased production you speak of will be a reality. :thumbup:

 

LBH

Footballguy
I'd be happy to land Droughns as my 2nd rb. I think he's going to have a solid season. I'm projecting 1300-1500yds 8-12tds

 

cstu

Footballguy
Not buying into Droughns until after the NFL Draft. With all the holes Cleveland filled during this free agency period, it would not be surprising to see them draft a RB early. Especially with the rumors going around of the Browns looking to move Lee Suggs. And I don't see William Green as the answer at RB should Droughns get injured. ..in fact I don't see Suggs as the answer either.
No way, Droughns is young enough that he can be their starting RB for several more years. Suggs is a good backup for him and is plenty talented in case Droughns is hurt. If Droughns were to get hurt they would likely bring in another RB because of Suggs' injury history, but they don't need one now - especially a RB early in the draft.
 

BlueDredSo

Footballguy
I also don't think the jump to 4.5 yds a carry is going to happen. Maybe 4.2ish, but 4.5 at 300+ carries puts him in pretty elite territory.
Yeah, a .5yds/carry bump is a lot. I wouldn't expect that much, and IMO I'm not even sure if I trust the guy to repeat his performance last year. Defenses will be stacked up against the run to see if the passing game is for real. I'll definitely still take him as my RB2, and if he climbs into RB1 status then so be it.
 

HobbesAB

Footballguy
I also don't think the jump to 4.5 yds a carry is going to happen. Maybe 4.2ish, but 4.5 at 300+ carries puts him in pretty elite territory.
Yeah, a .5yds/carry bump is a lot. I wouldn't expect that much, and IMO I'm not even sure if I trust the guy to repeat his performance last year. Defenses will be stacked up against the run to see if the passing game is for real. I'll definitely still take him as my RB2, and if he climbs into RB1 status then so be it.
You don't think that teams stacked the line this year? I doubt Dilfer was scaring too many teams. With a better offensive line, steadier QB play as a result of the improved O-line, a healthy K-Winslow, JJ and a healthy B. Edwards - all of this means that Droughns should be able to at least replicate what he did this past year.
 

Spartans Rule

Footballguy
A jump from 4 to 4.5 YPC wouldn't be totally unreasonable if you kept the number of carries the same. But YPC tends to go down as carries go up - especially if they're of the low-yardage clock-klling variety.

 

Chaos

Footballguy
A jump from 4 to 4.5 YPC wouldn't be totally unreasonable if you kept the number of carries the same. But YPC tends to go down as carries go up - especially if they're of the low-yardage clock-klling variety.
I don't disagree. Think of 4.5 as an upside. At 4.0 with 350 carries, you are still looking at 1400 yds.I still think that barring an explosive pre-season, people with short memories will still shy away from Browns players leaving Droughns to fall to me.

 

coolnerd

Footballguy
I think that you have over estimated the yards per carry difference 4.0 to 4.5 is a huge jump, but under estimated the potential TD jump. for the number of carries his TD total was near historical low. 8 to 10 TD especially for a guy who runs with some power should be an expectation.

BTW, 235 fantasy points most years places the RB somwehre around 6-10 in scoring.

 
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Shermanator

Footballguy
I really like Droughns this year as well. He defines "value pick" this year.

Crenell is building a Defense/Power running team. Droughns is a great fit in a system like that. Baring injury, 300 carries is a lock. Great #2 rb that will be drafted much later than his projected stats will indicate.

 

H.K.

Footballguy
350 1575 4.5 7 39 369 0

235 fantasy points sounds pretty good to me. Especially if you can get him as a #3 or 4 RB

The downside is the total yards but I don't think any less than 1300 should be expected. The upside is the TD output which could go double digit if the Defense improves as much as I think it does.

What do you guys think?
I think your avatar indicates you are seeing the world through Browns' colored glasses.In the past four seasons (2002-2005), there have only been 12 occurances of RB's getting 350+ carries. Since Alexander and Ricky Williams have done it twice, that means only ten RB's in four year's time have hit the 350 carry mark.

On top of that, only eight RB's have managed to average 4.5+ in seasons when they get 350 or more carries.

Your projections for Droughns for rushes and YPC put him among the league's ultra elite in terms of workload and production.

I think its OK to project Droughn to get a handful more carries than last season, bump his YPC up by a tenth or two and not be beyond the realm of his upper limits. However, for your numbers to be realistic, Droughns would be the #1 or #2 RB in the league and I severely doubt that will happen.

On a positive note, I could definitely see his TD's going up to the 6-8 range.

 

mr blond

Footballguy
350      1575  4.5    7      39    369      0       

235 fantasy points sounds pretty good to me. Especially if you can get him as a #3 or 4 RB

The downside is the total yards but I don't think any less than 1300 should be expected. The upside is the TD output which could go double digit if the Defense improves as much as I think it does.

What do you guys think?
I think your avatar indicates you are seeing the world through Browns' colored glasses.In the past four seasons (2002-2005), there have only been 12 occurances of RB's getting 350+ carries. Since Alexander and Ricky Williams have done it twice, that means only ten RB's in four year's time have hit the 350 carry mark.

On top of that, only eight RB's have managed to average 4.5+ in seasons when they get 350 or more carries.

Your projections for Droughns for rushes and YPC put him among the league's ultra elite in terms of workload and production.

I think its OK to project Droughn to get a handful more carries than last season, bump his YPC up by a tenth or two and not be beyond the realm of his upper limits. However, for your numbers to be realistic, Droughns would be the #1 or #2 RB in the league and I severely doubt that will happen.

On a positive note, I could definitely see his TD's going up to the 6-8 range.
:goodposting:
 

Chaos

Footballguy
350      1575   4.5     7       39     369      0       

235 fantasy points sounds pretty good to me. Especially if you can get him as a #3 or 4 RB

The downside is the total yards but I don't think any less than 1300 should be expected. The upside is the TD output which could go double digit if the Defense improves as much as I think it does.

What do you guys think?
I think your avatar indicates you are seeing the world through Browns' colored glasses.In the past four seasons (2002-2005), there have only been 12 occurances of RB's getting 350+ carries. Since Alexander and Ricky Williams have done it twice, that means only ten RB's in four year's time have hit the 350 carry mark.

On top of that, only eight RB's have managed to average 4.5+ in seasons when they get 350 or more carries.

Your projections for Droughns for rushes and YPC put him among the league's ultra elite in terms of workload and production.

I think its OK to project Droughn to get a handful more carries than last season, bump his YPC up by a tenth or two and not be beyond the realm of his upper limits. However, for your numbers to be realistic, Droughns would be the #1 or #2 RB in the league and I severely doubt that will happen.

On a positive note, I could definitely see his TD's going up to the 6-8 range.
haha, ok I'll accept that I am Brownie biased. Hopefully you don't let that fool you into thinking I am WAY off base here.I just checked the stats from 2002-2005 and if you allow for just slightly under 350 carries, say 340 you will find that 18 players achieved that mark (6 of them last year alone). I would say that this makes 350 a plausible top limit of the expectation range.

Come on guys, its just projections for fun and discussion. 350 is just a convenient milestone to mention. Who really projects 343 carries? Were just looking at ranges with projected upside and projected lowside.

Say 300 to 350 carries

4.0 ave to 4.5 ave

7 to 12 TDs

That still puts him between a respectable 1200yds 7 TDs to 1500+ yds and 12 TDS.

LOL at Mr Blonde for the :goodposting: shout out. All the responses including the original are good postings. That is what a discussion is all about. Nobody has the definative post or prediction.

 
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H.K.

Footballguy
That still puts him between a respectable 1200yds 7 TDs to 1500+ yds and 12 TDS.
I would feel much more comfortable projecting Droughns in this range if its total yards and the TD's trend to the lower number.I agree with you that Droughns is probably a good target for an undervalued RB this season, especially in PPR leagues. He almost caught 40 balls last year, which is pretty solid.

One problem for the Browns is that they play in a pretty tough division. Assuming the Steelers and Ravens continue their traditional high level of defensive play and Marvin Lewis keeps improving the Bengal defense, Cleveland is looking at a difficult slate for a large portion of their games.

 

Chaos

Footballguy
That still puts him between a respectable 1200yds 7 TDs to 1500+ yds and 12 TDS.
I would feel much more comfortable projecting Droughns in this range if its total yards and the TD's trend to the lower number.I agree with you that Droughns is probably a good target for an undervalued RB this season, especially in PPR leagues. He almost caught 40 balls last year, which is pretty solid.

One problem for the Browns is that they play in a pretty tough division. Assuming the Steelers and Ravens continue their traditional high level of defensive play and Marvin Lewis keeps improving the Bengal defense, Cleveland is looking at a difficult slate for a large portion of their games.
HK, your comfort level should mirror many others. That is in fact, what I am counting on and why I think he will fall to me later and be a great value pick.You do realize that he had over 1500 total yards last season. I see no reason barring injury to expect less this year. In fact, as I pointed out initially, there are a number of reasons to hope for more this season.

p.s. I don't believe that the AFC North fears Baltimore's Defense any longer.

 

mr blond

Footballguy
That still puts him between a respectable 1200yds 7 TDs to 1500+ yds and 12 TDS.
I would feel much more comfortable projecting Droughns in this range if its total yards and the TD's trend to the lower number.I agree with you that Droughns is probably a good target for an undervalued RB this season, especially in PPR leagues. He almost caught 40 balls last year, which is pretty solid.

One problem for the Browns is that they play in a pretty tough division. Assuming the Steelers and Ravens continue their traditional high level of defensive play and Marvin Lewis keeps improving the Bengal defense, Cleveland is looking at a difficult slate for a large portion of their games.
HK, your comfort level should mirror many others. That is in fact, what I am counting on and why I think he will fall to me later and be a great value pick.You do realize that he had over 1500 total yards last season. I see no reason barring injury to expect less this year. In fact, as I pointed out initially, there are a number of reasons to hope for more this season.

p.s. I don't believe that the AFC North fears Baltimore's Defense any longer.
They should. At least the Browns should considering Rueben only went 15/55 and 19/40 against them last year.My "Good Posting" post wasn't a knock on your excitement over Droughns next year, just acknowleding HK's post for digging a little deeper. I don't expect much more than the 309 carries he had last year considering he wore down a bit down the stretch and the front office has already voiced interest in utilizing a change-of-pace back. I do expect more TD's though.

But, as a Browns fan, :banned: here's to Droughns improving on last year's numbers.

 
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theo888

Footballguy
Encouraging topic and optimism, considering I just traded TO and T Bell for R Moss and Mr. Droughns in a dynasty league. I hope the projections are in the ballpark.

 

Bri

Footballguy
2005 stats

carries yards ave TDs rec yards TDs

309 1232 4.0 2 39 369 0

with the continued improvement of the O-line I say we bump him up to 4.5 ave per carry, are you with me so far. I also give him 3 more TDs in goalline situations because we can punch it in better with Bentley.

With the continued improvement of our DEF, I say we get more chances to run on offense. How about bumping carries up to 350? The additional carries and additional ypc should give him another 2 TDs.

So with all of this, we get

350 1575 4.5 7 39 369 0

235 fantasy points sounds pretty good to me. Especially if you can get him as a #3 or 4 RB

The downside is the total yards but I don't think any less than 1300 should be expected. The upside is the TD output which could go double digit if the Defense improves as much as I think it does.

What do you guys think?
Too often in FF people are almost afraid to predict a similar season for a player. They either bash him or praise him and drastically adjust his numbers. It takes a special back to get 1500 yards, never mind almost 1600.

Reuben is good he's not great. I think he and the Browns will be happy if he gets 1200 again.

 

Frenchy Fuqua

Footballguy
Before anyone gets too excited about Reuben Droughns as their RB2 I'd suggest you check his stats from the final 5 games of 2005:

98 carries for 291 yards (2.96 YPC) 0 TD

8 receptions for 69 yards 0 TD

Coincidentally Charlie Frye played extensively in these final 5 games and is expected to take the reigns again in 2006.

 

Chaos

Footballguy
Before anyone gets too excited about Reuben Droughns as their RB2 I'd suggest you check his stats from the final 5 games of 2005:

98 carries for 291 yards (2.96 YPC) 0 TD

8 receptions for 69 yards 0 TD

Coincidentally Charlie Frye played extensively in these final 5 games and is expected to take the reigns again in 2006.
Frenchy, good point but keep in mind some circumstances surrounding those final games. OL health-we were using backups at various positions during that stretch

New QB-learning the system, short drives etc..

losing B Edwards didn't help keep the D honest

The defense was wearing down. Its hard to score when your offense is on the bench and your D isn't getting the other team off the field.

I always like to look at how teams finish up and try to draw conclusions for the next season as well. It is important to make sure you know what was driving those things though.

 

BroadwayG

Footballguy
I :wub: Rueben Droughns this year. Almost as much as I liked Rudi last year.

I will admit that I don't watch very much of the Brown's games, but I really liked what I saw from him last year.

 

slimflop

Footballguy
Before anyone gets too excited about Reuben Droughns as their RB2 I'd suggest you check his stats from the final 5 games of 2005:

98 carries for 291 yards (2.96 YPC) 0 TD

8 receptions for 69 yards 0 TD

Coincidentally Charlie Frye played extensively in these final 5 games and is expected to take the reigns again in 2006.
Frenchy, good point but keep in mind some circumstances surrounding those final games. OL health-we were using backups at various positions during that stretch

New QB-learning the system, short drives etc..

losing B Edwards didn't help keep the D honest

The defense was wearing down. Its hard to score when your offense is on the bench and your D isn't getting the other team off the field.

I always like to look at how teams finish up and try to draw conclusions for the next season as well. It is important to make sure you know what was driving those things though.
He was also playing hurt IIRC wk-13-17 JAX,OAK,Cinn,Pitt, Balt
 
I'd be surprised if he does as well from a total yardage perspective this year as opposed to the last 2 years.

Cleveland seems committed to bringing in a 2nd RB to handle passing downs. I think they either draft or bring in a FA at some point to take over those responsilbilties. This is for 2 reasons. One, if you look at Droughns stats over the last 2 years his production has decreased over the last month of the season in both cases. He may just not have the stamina to carry a full time load for an entire season without getting worn down. And secondly, long yardage passing situations just aren't his strength.

That being said, I agree that his YPC average could increase. One just from being fresher and two due to Cleveland's probable imrovement. Correspondingly, and as mentioned, he could also get more TD's if the O improves as well.

 

Chaos

Footballguy
I'd be surprised if he does as well from a total yardage perspective this year as opposed to the last 2 years.

Cleveland seems committed to bringing in a 2nd RB to handle passing downs. I think they either draft or bring in a FA at some point to take over those responsilbilties. This is for 2 reasons. One, if you look at Droughns stats over the last 2 years his production has decreased over the last month of the season in both cases. He may just not have the stamina to carry a full time load for an entire season without getting worn down. And secondly, long yardage passing situations just aren't his strength.

That being said, I agree that his YPC average could increase. One just from being fresher and two due to Cleveland's probable imrovement. Correspondingly, and as mentioned, he could also get more TD's if the O improves as well.
How about some projections.
 

amnesiac

beer is good
i would be amazed if Droughns ended up with as many touches as he did last year.

but if he does, he definitely has some good upside.

and i agree that the average ffer is going to be avoiding the cleveland ground game like the plague.

 

Winston Smith

Footballguy
I :wub: Rueben Droughns this year.  Almost as much as I liked Rudi last year.

I will admit that I don't watch very much of the Brown's games, but I really liked what I saw from him last year.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>
I think he's one of those guys who will have a slow, but steady, rise in his draft position. It is hard to imagine in a 12 team league with competitive owners that he'll last beyond the mid to late second round. If you can pair up LT/SA/LJ/Tiki/Portis with Reuben in the second, I'd have to think you'd be pretty happy.
 

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