RG3 as a QB1 (1 Viewer)

[tsarc888]

as I put the final touches on my draft plan, I'm warming up to the idea of RG3 as a QB1 in a 10 team league if other values I'm targeting don't materialize. Am I crazy?

a few things to note:

1. In 2011 Wash was 5th in passing attempts, in 2010 they were 4th. I believe it's reasonable to expect that RG3 is a better passer than who they had out there.

2. this league has no penalties for interceptions and also gives extra bonus to QB rushing yardage. RG3 actually checks in at #7 in my scoring system with the projections in Draft Dominator.

3. The receiving options have been upgraded.

4. There is no stud RB that begs for 300 carries.

normal rookie risk would apply and I'm not expecting a Cam Newton type year. Thanks for all thoughts positive and negative.

 

[mr roboto]

I don't think you are crazy. But you could get him as your QB2 in the draft. IOW don't over draft him.

 

[macknova]

I think the key to using this method is pairing up RG3 with a Ben/Cutler/Luck/Schaub/Rivers/Eli/Peyton type that can possibly take over if RG3 is shaky. I do like RG3 a lot in fantasy, and I don't view it as a nightmare scenario if I'm stuck with him at QB.

 

[ponchsox]

I think his ceiling could be Cam light this year but what if he doesn't pan out? You need a good insurance policy.

 

[LargeMouthBass]

RG3 won't come close to Cam's numbers last year, not because of his abilities but because of lack of opportunites. Cam only put up crazy numbers last year since they were always playing from behind. In order for a QB to put up big numbers, their D has to give up a lot of points regularly imo...

 

[Captain Hook]

you are crazy for redraft leagues - even IF he has some really good weeks he will have some bad ones too - won't be consistent enough for QB1

could well be used in QBBC though but you will probably overpay for him

 

[Manster]

personally, i wouldnt feel comfortable with him as my QB1 this year. Make sure you get Rivers or Cutler to QBBC with him. Im not a huge fan of QBBC though. can be frustrating

 

[duaneok66]

you have to think outside the box. Very few people thought Cam was going to be all world laast year, and he was (and those in the minority were well rewarded). No, I'm not saying RG3 will duplicate Cam's feat, because he's a different player. Still, I wouldn't be surprised to see RG3 finish in the top 10 this year.

 

[tsarc888]

definitely agree that if I ended up with RG3, I would grab a Flacco/Cutler type around the same area.

 

[Shawn]

definitely agree that if I ended up with RG3, I would grab a Flacco/Cutler type around the same area.

I would go with Cutler specifically as my backup if i drafted RG3, as he has looked pretty good with this preseason, and he has his favorite receiver back

 

[Keith1]

definitely agree that if I ended up with RG3, I would grab a Flacco/Cutler type around the same area.

I would go with Cutler specifically as my backup if i drafted RG3, as he has looked pretty good with this preseason, and he has his favorite receiver back

I have looked hard at this idea (of RG3 as my QB1). As of now, I planned on it. But in my 12 team league, you would have to take RG3 and Cutler back to back (rds. 5/6 or 6/7 at the latest). I like the pairing of RG3 and Flacco (who should be available in rd. 10). I think a lot of people are sleeping on Flacco this year, and I think, that paired with RG3, they will perform as a solid QBBC. I initially intended to draft Ryan, but his price is too prohibitive now, and I was settling in on Cutler, but I just think he is going to have too many disappointing weeks to be a solid QB1. And if I take RG3 and Cutler back to back, I am going to spend each week agonizing over who to start.

 

[EBF]

I think he's a bit overrated right now. As a long term dynasty prospect, I think he has a lot of upside.

But as a redraft QB, I think Cam Newton's success has skewed expectations for RGIII.

RGIII isn't Cam. He's not as good running the ball and he's not nearly the goal line threat. And I find it unlikely that his passing stats will stack up with Cam because that would require him to have one of the best passing seasons for a rookie QB ever.

Add in a mediocre supporting cast and there are a lot of factors working against him. I could still see a top 15 or maybe even a top 8-10 finish from him, but I really doubt that he'll win you your league this year. In that range I would rather have a Cutler/Rivers/Schaub/Flacco. Not as much mystery to that bunch, but you know what you're getting.

 

[meatwad1]

as I put the final touches on my draft plan, I'm warming up to the idea of RG3 as a QB1 in a 10 team league if other values I'm targeting don't materialize. Am I crazy?a few things to note:1. In 2011 Wash was 5th in passing attempts, in 2010 they were 4th. I believe it's reasonable to expect that RG3 is a better passer than who they had out there. 2. this league has no penalties for interceptions and also gives extra bonus to QB rushing yardage. RG3 actually checks in at #7 in my scoring system with the projections in Draft Dominator.3. The receiving options have been upgraded.4. There is no stud RB that begs for 300 carries.normal rookie risk would apply and I'm not expecting a Cam Newton type year. Thanks for all thoughts positive and negative.

Always go with draft dominator...last year it told me that Cam was a top ten player overall....obviously I didn't pick him there but I made sure I got him.

 

[Keith1]

as I put the final touches on my draft plan, I'm warming up to the idea of RG3 as a QB1 in a 10 team league if other values I'm targeting don't materialize. Am I crazy?a few things to note:1. In 2011 Wash was 5th in passing attempts, in 2010 they were 4th. I believe it's reasonable to expect that RG3 is a better passer than who they had out there. 2. this league has no penalties for interceptions and also gives extra bonus to QB rushing yardage. RG3 actually checks in at #7 in my scoring system with the projections in Draft Dominator.3. The receiving options have been upgraded.4. There is no stud RB that begs for 300 carries.normal rookie risk would apply and I'm not expecting a Cam Newton type year. Thanks for all thoughts positive and negative.

Always go with draft dominator...last year it told me that Cam was a top ten player overall....obviously I didn't pick him there but I made sure I got him.

The Dominator has RG3 at QB12 for me, within 8 points (margin of error ?) of QB9.

 

[amicsta]

There are two groups of people ive heard with regard to rgIII, one group saying he could post cam like stats, and another saying he cant do it because hes a different player and therefore doesnt have starter value. I would disagree with both.

RGIII certainly is not cam newton, a once in a generational type athlete at the qb position, but that doesnt mean he cant be a qb1. I had griffin ranked as my number 9 qb in redraft and in fact own him as my qb1 with locker as my other qb (rounds 9 and 13 respectively) in my main league. For all of Cams successes last season, griffin grades out as a better passer as a prospect and is in a system that is tailored to his strengths (boots, rollouts, deep balls). Again, rgIII is easily the best passer the redskins have had in the shanny era. Taking redskin qb stats from last year, scaling back the attempts a little, upping the ypa (griffin throws a great deep ball), and tacking on about 600 and 6 on the ground (just bc hes not cam doesnt mean hes crippled) works out as a clear qb1 in redrafts. I dont think he can reach cam levels, but his upside is still that of a top 7 qb if things break right. His floor is also high because hell have those rushing numbers to stabilize his scoring

Moral is that just like there is one cam, there is one rgIII. He can be his own man and still a viable fantasy play.

 

[EBF]

I think you're right long-term, but don't you think there will be an adjustment period in the NFL?

It seems like a lot of people expect him to just walk on the field and be a star from day one. That's certainly possible, but how many quarterbacks get out of the gate that fast? A lot of them take a year or two to really find their stride. I think that has to be factored into any projections for RG3. Some of the very best passers in the NFL struggled when they were rookies.

 

[Lionz will turn it around!]

I think it would be based on scoring systems as to when and where you would want to draft RG3. If all TD's are 6pts for QB's then RG3 would not be a good choice for a QB1. But if you take my local league where passing td's are 3pts (don't ask, they won't change) and rushing td's are 6pts then RG3 becomes a top 10 QB in theory. I like him a lot as a QB2 but as long as they do not take his legs out of the offense a running QB will often make up for poor passing numbers IMO.

 

[Nipsey]

I have him finishing the season as QB4 behind Rogers, Brees and Luck.

 

[duaneok66]

I have him finishing the season as QB4 behind Rogers, Brees and Luck.

right or wrong, I admire your courage.

 

[notdarkyet]

I'm rolling with him as QB1 in a 12 team (1 keeper where Rodgers, Brees, Brady and Cam are kept). Basically saw him as the highest upside of the remaining QBs once you factor in the potential of keeping him.

I have him as a backup to Cam in another.

I think it is safe to say that I am not going to be too terribly rational when it comes to RG3 discussion, but I think he can finish in the QB5-7 range pretty easily.

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

went with the RG3/Flacco combo tonight and I feel totally comfortable with it.

 

[msommer]

I was going to post something cautionary, but EBF already has that covered.

You might as well just jump...

Go ahead, your league will love you for it

 

[KellysHeroes]

Luck is QB1 material

 

[Arizona Ron]

I would love to have RG3 on the roster for the long-term but his hype makes him over-valued IMO right now. WNB.

 

[lazyike]

I think you could do better in a 10 team league. Is this a 6 pt passing td league or 4 pt? He becomes more viable in a 4pt passing td league with the 6 pt rushing td potential.

 

[nysportsfan]

He is officially my qb1 in a league with 4pt throwing, 6pt rushing tds. Draft Dominator kept me honest so I waited on QB and drafted RG3 after I secured the rest of my main guys. Schaub and Wilson are my backups.

I really think the legs could give him top ten upside this year, which is all I am looking for.

 

[[icon]]

Going with him as QB1 in two leagues this year (16 team and 10 team) due to QBs flying off the board too early. Backed him up with Big ben in both cases. QB isn't my strong suit in these leagues but I'm hoping for serviceable numbers.

 

[JamesTheScot]

I think the key to using this method is pairing up RG3 with a Ben/Cutler/Luck/Schaub/Rivers/Eli/Peyton type that can possibly take over if RG3 is shaky. I do like RG3 a lot in fantasy, and I don't view it as a nightmare scenario if I'm stuck with him at QB.

I think you need to pair him with a low-end QB1 to hedge your bet.He has looked pretty good, but I think it's a huge gamble to rely on him as your #1.Yes, Cam was able to pull it off. But if you get into Cam's numbers last year, he was helped out in his season totals by those first handful of games. How certain are we that Griffin will be able to put up those critical huge games like Cam did?I think it's a mistake to think that because Cam did it, it's now easy for a rookie QB to come in and post top 10 numbers. Not to mention that opposing DC's are probably going to take rookie QB's a bit more seriously after Cam's hot start last year.

 

[mphtrilogy]

I get the feeling its Wilson who will be this years Cam, not RGIII

 

[meyerj31]

RG3 won't come close to Cam's numbers last year, not because of his abilities but because of lack of opportunites. Cam only put up crazy numbers last year since they were always playing from behind. In order for a QB to put up big numbers, their D has to give up a lot of points regularly imo...

Sounds like a recipe for Luck to be successful this year Whenever I watch the Colts defense I expect the other team to be chanting "SIEVE! SIEVE! SIEVE!" ...

 

[wudaben]

In leagues that reward rushing stats Tebow was a QB1 so it's not hard to imagine RG3 as one also. Most of the mid level QB's (Cutler, Ben, Flacco, etc) went for a dollar amount too high to pair with RG3. FWIW in my auction league I'm rolling with RG3 & Russell Wilson at the QB position.

 

[bagger]

as I put the final touches on my draft plan, I'm warming up to the idea of RG3 as a QB1 in a 10 team league if other values I'm targeting don't materialize. Am I crazy?a few things to note:1. In 2011 Wash was 5th in passing attempts, in 2010 they were 4th. I believe it's reasonable to expect that RG3 is a better passer than who they had out there. 2. this league has no penalties for interceptions and also gives extra bonus to QB rushing yardage. RG3 actually checks in at #7 in my scoring system with the projections in Draft Dominator.3. The receiving options have been upgraded.4. There is no stud RB that begs for 300 carries.normal rookie risk would apply and I'm not expecting a Cam Newton type year. Thanks for all thoughts positive and negative.

i got rg3 as my qb1 at 6.10 in a 12 teamer, and he was the 11th qb off theboard.i am a bit tentative on his success, and am not envisioning a newton year at all but if he can be around qb6 or 7 i would be happy.i may try to get russell wilson as my qb2 and drop fitzpatrick but i may just be insane for rostering two rookie qbs.

 

[Mr E]

I have RGIII backing up R Wilson in one league.

Luck backing up R Wilson in another.

Freeman backing up R Wilson in another.

Ya I'm high on Wilson. I'll be insane too I don't care, he's this years Cam for me.

 

[Ilov80s]

If RG3 is the runner he appears (comparable to Vick more than Newton). Over a full season, he should put together about 700 yards. Vick's rushing TDs have always been all over the map, so a fair conservative estimate for RG3 is 3 rushing TDs. That is an extra 5.5 fantasy points per game. Looking at one of my leagues (4 for pa TD, 1 pt per 20 yards passing), we can see how this rushing will help his fantasy value. Last year, Curtis Painter was an awful QB that had almost no fantasy value. He He averaged just 12.4 points per game, 40th among all QBs last year. So if RG3 is the passing trainwreck that was Curtis Painter, we still get a QB averaging about 17.2 points per game which is the same exact number as Flacco and about 20th among QBs. That takes him from useless to viable bye week guy.

Ponder was a pretty average rookie QB. He was ok. He didn't stink it up, but nobody is rushing out to get this guy in redraft leagues. If RG3 is the so-so QB Ponder was last year, that is about 15 ppg and 33rd amongst QBs. If we add on RG3 projected rushing stats, it turns into 19.4 which puts him ahead of Fitzpatrick and a little below Big Ben at 15th overall. Now we are talking about a very good back-up QB, a QB1 in a big league.

Andy Dalton was a really strong rookie QB. He played better than people expected and was relevant in fantasy football. He was solid, but not spectacular. If RG3 can match what Dalton did in the air, it would 21 ppg which would have been 10th last year, behind Romo and ahead of Sanchez. So if you believe that RG3 can be ok for a rookie and is the real deal threat on the ground, he definitely presents a nice opportunity to get a late QB value.

 

[ponchsox]

I'm really liking a Vick/RG3 platoon this year.

 

[Shutout]

went with the RG3/Flacco combo tonight and I feel totally comfortable with it.

You will go down in flames!Sorry, just a little bitter. Flacco killed me last year and I agree with the consensus that Cam's success has really got people hopeful for these rookies. that performance last year was rare. for everytime we something like that, we will see many more failures. The odds are not with you.

 

[We Tigers]

1. He's a rookie

2. He probably won't run the ball as much as you expect him to

3. He has a pretty weak receiver corps, with Garcon and maybe Fred Davis being the only "plus" players in it--and neither are superstar types

4. He's a rookie

Did those help? The future may be bright for Griffin, but I think we're going to be looking at something more like Sam Bradford rookie year numbers than Cam Newton rookie year numbers.

 

[joffer]

RGIII isn't Cam. He's not as good running the ball and he's not nearly the goal line threat.

 

[DoubleG]

1. He's a rookie2. He probably won't run the ball as much as you expect him to3. He has a pretty weak receiver corps, with Garcon and maybe Fred Davis being the only "plus" players in it--and neither are superstar types4. He's a rookieDid those help? The future may be bright for Griffin, but I think we're going to be looking at something more like Sam Bradford rookie year numbers than Cam Newton rookie year numbers.

The only thing I would disagree with is Garcon being a "plus" WR. There is a reason Indy didn't keep him. He's just not a very good pass-catcher. Honestly, after watching preseason, I think Wilson might even put up better numbers than RG3 (and Luck probably better than both). RG3, at least for 2012, might be the 3rd best rookie QB (which, to answer to OP, doesn't bode well for him as QB1.

 

[Clifford]

RGIII isn't Cam. He's not as good running the ball and he's not nearly the goal line threat.

Seriously Cam can mow over NFL LBs. If RG3 tried that he'd fly backwards like a ragdoll.

 

[ImTheScientist]

I get the feeling its Wilson who will be this years Cam, not RGIII

 

[We Tigers]

1. He's a rookie2. He probably won't run the ball as much as you expect him to3. He has a pretty weak receiver corps, with Garcon and maybe Fred Davis being the only "plus" players in it--and neither are superstar types4. He's a rookieDid those help? The future may be bright for Griffin, but I think we're going to be looking at something more like Sam Bradford rookie year numbers than Cam Newton rookie year numbers.

The only thing I would disagree with is Garcon being a "plus" WR. There is a reason Indy didn't keep him. He's just not a very good pass-catcher. Honestly, after watching preseason, I think Wilson might even put up better numbers than RG3 (and Luck probably better than both). RG3, at least for 2012, might be the 3rd best rookie QB (which, to answer to OP, doesn't bode well for him as QB1.

I was with you until I saw Garcon really improve his play in the preseason--but yeah, I was being a little generous.

 

[MacAvery]

Certainly what happens in the preseason is all you need to sort out your QB rankings.

How did you feel about Cam after watching him last preseason?

 

[PatsWillWin]

you have to think outside the box. Very few people thought Cam was going to be all world laast year, and he was (and those in the minority were well rewarded). No, I'm not saying RG3 will duplicate Cam's feat, because he's a different player. Still, I wouldn't be surprised to see RG3 finish in the top 10 this year.

So what are you saying?

 

[silentcoach]

The only thing I would disagree with is Garcon being a "plus" WR. There is a reason Indy didn't keep him. He's just not a very good pass-catcher.

Indy wanted Garcon--Washington outbid them.

 

[PatsWillWin]

Draft him as your QB1A if you must, but you need another starter. And in a 10 team league, I'd want a top 5 stud QB in my plan anyway.

 

[EBF]

I get the feeling its Wilson who will be this years Cam, not RGIII

Nothing against Wilson, but in all probability there won't be a Cam this year.His rookie year might have been the best ever for a QB. It's unlikely that anyone will come along and duplicate the feat.And if one of these guys somehow does manage to pull it off, it will probably be Luck, since he's the best QB in this draft class.

 

[fatness]

I think you're right long-term, but don't you think there will be an adjustment period in the NFL?

I think there will. And I think much of the adjustment he'll have to do will be during games where the Redskins face teams with strong defensive lines. The Redskins' offensive line hasn't been real good the last several years, and it wasn't significantly upgraded during the offseason. They did draft some rookie O-linemen but they're not about to step right in and be men-among-men; they have their own learning (and building strength) to do. If Griffin gets adequate time he'll learn pretty quickly. When he doesn't he'll have to make decisions very quickly that are not yet second nature to him. So there'll be some down weeks.To illustrate the difference, watch replays of the last 2 Redskin preseason games against the Bears (who are better than the Skins), and the Colts (who are worse). Griffin struggled against the Bears and looked good against the Colts. I expect that pattern to continue somewhat into the season.

 

[fatness]

And add me to the group thinking there will be no "this year's Cam Newton" from Griffin, Wilson, or anyone. People don't understand how incredible Newton's season was last year. We're not going to see a rookie QB do that again soon; probably never.

 

[DoubleG]

The only thing I would disagree with is Garcon being a "plus" WR. There is a reason Indy didn't keep him. He's just not a very good pass-catcher.

Indy wanted Garcon--Washington outbid them.

There was a reason Indy didn't go higher. They wanted him...for a lower price. Garcon is well documented as having below average hands - and that was with one of the best QBs in history throwing him the ball. I think RG3 will (should?) lean more heavily on Davis at TE and Hankerson - at least on a regular basis. The occasional deep ball to Garcon to keep defenses honest would serve him well. But if the WR leading the Skins in targets is Garcon, I think RG3's numbers will be less than QB1-like...a lot less.