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** Road To The 2018 Triple Crown - 5/10: Justy Back On (The) Track, Ruis Will Ship Bolty/Duck The Rain ** (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter otb_lifer
- Start date
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
I'll be using Vino Rosso underneath in May. He's my Lookin at Lee for 2018. I think he has a chance to figure at the distance.
Good Magic bouncing back is cool, another contender that will draw some money. Still not a huge fan myself but depending on what the price is like, maybe.
Justify is probably going to end up the favorite at CD. I still think Mendelssohn and Audible were more impressive leading up but Justify is nice.
Good Magic bouncing back is cool, another contender that will draw some money. Still not a huge fan myself but depending on what the price is like, maybe.
Justify is probably going to end up the favorite at CD. I still think Mendelssohn and Audible were more impressive leading up but Justify is nice.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
still head scratching on Ruis entering a supposed 'rabbit', who was dead last, iirc, at first call.
really thought they would try to push Justy a bit more ... he didn't set hot fractions at all, but his cruise speed is top notch - don't wanna say BIG BROWN, but i just
did. man, Bolty was used hard, had nothing on Justy today.i love Flamey. a ton. but think he's gonna be hustled on the engine next month ... can't see it right now for him. Good Magic has the chops to pull it off, looked a bit green himself today, but think he'll be right come KD. Vino wants the longer race, no doubt ... as does Free Drop - Good Magic finished like he had enough for the extra click coming up. Vino is an intriguing cat, though - agreed.
Audible has been very impressive, but hasn't beaten anything close to Bolt, as Justy has done - but that speed gotta be reckoned with.
and we ain't finished yet ... Magnum Moon and Solomini next week - Quip? meh.
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otb_lifer
Footballguy
all linked to KD homepage replay ...
Wood
Vino really dug in here, very big stretch grind outta him.
Blue Grass
Good Magic simply outclassed Flamey, who was luggin' and tuggin' like a maiden 2 yr. old.
S.A. Derby
Justify got loose, had enough to cruise home without breaking a sweat. Smiff w/the hand ride most of the way. Bolt was asked. a ton.
ETA: Justy banged down to 3/1 in the futures after yesterday, started at 6/1 on Friday.
Wood
Vino really dug in here, very big stretch grind outta him.
Blue Grass
Good Magic simply outclassed Flamey, who was luggin' and tuggin' like a maiden 2 yr. old.
S.A. Derby
Justify got loose, had enough to cruise home without breaking a sweat. Smiff w/the hand ride most of the way. Bolt was asked. a ton.
ETA: Justy banged down to 3/1 in the futures after yesterday, started at 6/1 on Friday.
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otb_lifer
Footballguy
was just looking at that leader board, and picturing the Derby scenario ... all contingent on post draw, weather, defections, etc - BUT ...
Promises Fulfilled/Quip/Flameaway/Noble Indy in the lead pack - Runaway Ghost may be sent as well.
but look who's right behind them: Justy, Audible, Mendelssohn, Bolt, Good Magic, Solomini, Magnum Moon
all will be pressing behind the early fractions, can't see any of them being asked to wire this mutha - only way that could play out for any in that group is a compromised post draw.
now, who gets sent first outta that lot to take charge?? WOW. what a prolific bunch there.
Enticed, Bravazo, Gronk - dunno wtf they'll do, don't care - will be tossing off my tix along with all from that lead pack i suggested - except for Flamey (just can't quit him).
5 stone closers up in here atm: Free Drop, Vino, Hofburg, Lone Sailor, My Boy Jack.
it's very deep and wide open for the exotics - favorites have been winning with high % since the points system was put in place, but that hasn't stopped the gate crashers from bombing the underneath plays ... gonna need the full four weeks just to assemble my tix
Promises Fulfilled/Quip/Flameaway/Noble Indy in the lead pack - Runaway Ghost may be sent as well.
but look who's right behind them: Justy, Audible, Mendelssohn, Bolt, Good Magic, Solomini, Magnum Moon
all will be pressing behind the early fractions, can't see any of them being asked to wire this mutha - only way that could play out for any in that group is a compromised post draw.now, who gets sent first outta that lot to take charge?? WOW. what a prolific bunch there.
Enticed, Bravazo, Gronk - dunno wtf they'll do, don't care - will be tossing off my tix along with all from that lead pack i suggested - except for Flamey (just can't quit him).
5 stone closers up in here atm: Free Drop, Vino, Hofburg, Lone Sailor, My Boy Jack.
it's very deep and wide open for the exotics - favorites have been winning with high % since the points system was put in place, but that hasn't stopped the gate crashers from bombing the underneath plays ... gonna need the full four weeks just to assemble my tix
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wikkidpissah
Footballguy
yeah, exciting crop but equally perplexing because the stars have pretty much been allowed to set their own pace. the thing that made Secretariat so monstrous is that he could click 24-second quarter-miles all day long (then 23s, as in his Derby last quarter, when he needed em), no matter where it put him in a race. dont follow closely enough anymore (its to otb's credit i follow at all) to know if it's an anomaly or a trend, but the big trainers have been able to find spots for their charges where early 24s have put them no worse than a stalking position when, traditionally, they'd have half a field to pass in point-worthy stakes by doing so. So your stars don't know how to pass* and your pace setters dont know how to steal (if there is indeed a way to steal a classic anymore) - should be a clusterrush.was just looking at that leader board, and picturing the Derby scenario ... all contingent on post draw, weather, defections, etc - BUT ...
Promises Fulfilled/Quip/Flameaway/Noble Indy in the lead pack - Runaway Ghost may be sent as well.
but look who's right behind them: Justy, Audible, Mendelssohn, Bolt, Good Magic, Solomini, Magnum Moon
now, who gets sent first outta that lot to take charge?? WOW. what a prolific bunch there.
Enticed, Bravazo, Gronk - dunno wtf they'll do, don't care - will be tossing off my tix along with all from that lead pack i suggested - except for Flamey (just can't quit him).
5 stone closers up in here atm: Free Drop, Vino, Hofburg, Lone Sailor, My Boy Jack.
it's very deep and wide open for the exotics - favorites have been winning with high % since the points system was put in place, but that hasn't stopped the gate crashers from bombing the underneath plays ... gonna need the full four weeks just to assemble my tix
*Slew O Gold was the only horse i ever saw who enjoyed passing horses. When i lost a mountain of cash betting Bates Motel (a gigantic aniscule who had the best middle move i've ever seen) over him in a big race in my first yr as a pro handicapper, i paid much closer attention to this horse who could win big races without running big figs. His 4yo season was a joy to watch (tho shelly hooves kept him from dancing all the dances they wanted for him). He'd let the field string out and then, one by one, he'd come to them, either inhale their pheremones, fire his own at them or both (who knows?) til he'd put the quit in them and then take up the next one to do the same until he reached the front. Fascinating - not before or since have i seen the sexual/dominance aspect behind why a horse runs in the first place figure so obviously in a contest.
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chet
Footballguy
Justify received a Beyer Speed Figure of 107 for his victory in the Santa Anita Derby yesterday. For context, Vino Rosso received a 98 for his win in the Wood Memorial and Good Magic, the Blue Grass winner, got a 95.
http://www.drf.com/news/watchmaker-justify-proves-he-real-deal
http://www.drf.com/news/watchmaker-justify-proves-he-real-deal
chet
Footballguy
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Are Mendelssohn and Audible the only two horses likely for the starting gate at CD that are unbeaten as 3-year olds and also were raced as 2-year olds? That seems to be a fairly decent indicator of success in the Derby in recent years.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Quip
3/1/0 in 4 career starts, only loss was a seventh place finish in the KJC back in November.
3 races as a 2 yr. old, undefeated thus far as a 3 yr. old, as he won his only start this year, TB Derby.
but price of poker shooting way the eff up for him this Saturday vs. Solomini/Magnum Moon/My Boy Jack/Combatant down Oaklawan.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Good call. Will be watching the Arkansas Derby with rapt attention - I don't think Quip has the goods to take down that field, but I will change my tune quickly if he does.otb_lifer said:
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Could we translate as "I feel like I need to be with Todd" = "I asked Bolt d'Oro for all he had and got bupkis, Audible has a much better shot to win" ?
chet
Footballguy
True but Pletcher also trains a lot of horses and always seems to have one or more in the big races. So I think there's more than simply, Bolt d'Oro doesn't have much of a shot.
I think Castellano has ridden all of my friend's Derby horses. Could be wrong though.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
dunno, he's a horse who is gonna need to be forwardly placed in Churchill - him and Promises Fulfilled will most likely bake the early fractions - and neither of them is anywhere in the ballpark of the Justy/Audible/Mendel/Magnum/Magic/Bolt/Solomini that are gonna leave the paceseters in cement once they get chuggin' - gotta look to the closers to round out the tix ...
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
FWIW, if that is the real reason, I agree with him. I love Audible, Bolt d'Oro, not as much. I wasn't even as high on him as many others going into Santa Anita - after that race, no chance on Earth I back him up top in the CD. At this point (pending the results Saturday, I'm keying Audible and Mendelssohn and playing a bunch of live long(er) shots underneath hoping to cash some exotics.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Totally agree. I think my betting strategy is pretty well set in stone, but if I were to see Quip go out and rate and smoke the field coming home in Arkansas, I'd be forced to open my mind a little. Right now, he's a toss for me.
chet
Footballguy
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Talented horse for sure, but I've never seen him navigate a field the size of the one he'll face in the KD. The same can be said for some others of course, but with Audible being so green, it makes me a little more cautious than it would normally. Add to the fact that (IIRC), no horse unraced as a 2-year old has ever won the Derby and I'll be looking to back others, especially if he goes off as the favorite, which I suspect he will.
chet
Footballguy
chet
Footballguy
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
Ten horse field, favorite. Twenty horse, he's gonna see a LOT of stuff he never seen before, aint gonna like & don't have the experience to attack in any way but with his natural talents. Curse of the big horse is that he doesnt get ridden as well early. Posts will be big.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
this post reminded me of Bode - out the 6 hole, and BB/Smiff tried to wire 'em - also hearkens to your earlier point about horses these days laying back and "not making their own shot", so to speak ... well, Bode sure as #### did not lay off any pace, he created it- much like Hard Spun and Shackleford before him ...
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
I hope he draws a ton of $ and if he wins it, good on him. I'm going to be trying to beat him for sure if he's anywhere from 7/2-5/1 come post time.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
I figure by post time, he'll probably be somewhere around 4/1 to 6/1. That's just my best guess.can't see how he goes anything over 3/1 m/l from Battaglia
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
Not a lot of difference between a sub 1:10 lead and a five-wide trip, courtesy of a big horse with no sense nor schooling to scrum with others. And, if Mendlessohn is a simlarly talented aniscule, all those five-horse gallops he grew up on just might compensate for the long ship. With a push-button pro ready to pounce on missteps by either/both, i'll be glad not to afford to bet
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otb_lifer
Footballguy
regarding the jockey merry-go-round ... from what i've ascertained from poking about, Johnny V gets first call for Pletcher (has been for over a decade, actually), and he chose Vino over Audible, which opened the mount for Javi - this is very telling, and gives an even bigger level of intrigue to the Wood winner. remember, that connection bagged it last year with Always Dreaming 
note that he was fined by the stewards for giving Vino some whip after the line, not for the rough stuff in the stretch with Enticed.
getting Espinoza for Bolty is not a bad "consolation" - dunno how he's been riding lately, but interesting to see him on the bench through most of these preps ... he was piloting Greyvitos, but that one is on ice atm - did get a mount in the S.A. Derby, finishing fifth on a very over matched Pepe Tono.
- Bolt came outta the S.A. Derby with a tiny cracked quarter - his training will be hampered a bit for now.
DRF's Bernier on the Wood Blue Grass S.A. Derby
note that he was fined by the stewards for giving Vino some whip after the line, not for the rough stuff in the stretch with Enticed.
getting Espinoza for Bolty is not a bad "consolation" - dunno how he's been riding lately, but interesting to see him on the bench through most of these preps ... he was piloting Greyvitos, but that one is on ice atm - did get a mount in the S.A. Derby, finishing fifth on a very over matched Pepe Tono.
- Bolt came outta the S.A. Derby with a tiny cracked quarter - his training will be hampered a bit for now.
DRF's Bernier on the Wood Blue Grass S.A. Derby
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Wow. That's highly intriguing.regarding the jockey merry-go-round ... from what i've ascertained from poking about, Johnny V gets first call for Pletcher (has been for over a decade, actually), and he chose Vino over Audible, which opened the mount for Javi - this is very telling, and gives an even bigger level of intrigue to the Wood winner. remember, that connection bagged it last year with Always Dreaming
otb_lifer
Footballguy
yep
they've been kinda alternating on Audible - Johnny V got the Fla. Derby nod 'cause Javi was in Dubai on mah boy Reride - so, yeah ... here we are with Vino now on top of my very short list for "key" horse.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Where's Vino in the futures pool odds right now? I can't see it at work thanks to f---ing content filtering.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
foundation/seasoning - and with the Derby early in May of their three year old campaign, it's hard to get enough work/racing in without grinding the horse down.
there's a reason it hasn't happened in 138 years .... but, just as a 16 seed never beat a 1 seed in the NCAA tournament until this year, its gonna fall some time ..
otb_lifer
Footballguy
official KD pool he was "field" (17/1).
waiting on the latest Vegas/Wynn odds - haven't tracked 'em down yet today.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
I assume it has less to do with field size and more to do with conditioning/learning to race. I'm not nearly well-schooled enough to say anything for sure, but I'm just looking at the numbers. The sample size is large enough that it can't be ignored, IMO. Of course, one could say the same about horses shipping from UAE to race and I've followed that trend and tossed the foreign invaders every year, even when they draw decent support at the windows and that's worked fabulously for me. However, I may have to buck the trend this year. Mendelssohn's run was Secretariat-like.
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
otb_lifer
Footballguy
not really - they set that official KD one last Thursday, and Vino only had seven total points, and was coming into the Wood off a very sluggish fifth in the TB Derby ... when ya factor those angles in, it made sense
Evilgrin 72
Distributor of Pain
Oh, OK - that makes sense.not really - they set that official KD one last Thursday, and Vino only had seven total points, and was coming into the Wood off a very sluggish fifth in the TB Derby ... when ya factor those angles in, it made sense
JerseyToughGuys
Tough Guy
.
rockaction
Footballguy
Yeah, this is an interesting, well-researched and seemingly knowledgeable (I know nothing by which to judge it), But it's interesting. I'll check the leaderboard periodically.
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
Race experience is important - mostly because thoroughbreds HATE surprises - and a long course of preparedness actually helps a horse understand expectations better than number of races. Traditionally, though, in the top stables which could afford not to make income from the orthopedically-risky 2yo season, it connoted a horse who was screaming out of his skin to run and, therefore, a breakout talent. Gentlemen owners wanted to show off their crops at Aiken in the spring & Saratoga in summer.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
Zipse/Shifman look back/ahead -
the chop:
S.A. Derby Justy/Bolt
Blue Grass Good Magic Flamey
Wood Vino Enticed
Pletcher/Jockey Musings
Ark. Derby Preview
Lexington Preview - featuring the return of Greyvitos, and My Boy Jack is here, not Oaklawn - needs this to get in - Desourmaux bros. ducking the Arky to squeeze them points ...
Doug Salvatore with very in-depth reviews here, pack a lunch: S.A. Derby Wood Blue Grass
some print:
Haskin Drunk On Vino
"Expert" Top Tens
US Racing (offshore) Latest Odds (click "fractional" to put 'em in order)
the chop:
S.A. Derby Justy/Bolt
Blue Grass Good Magic Flamey
Wood Vino Enticed
Pletcher/Jockey Musings
Ark. Derby Preview
Lexington Preview - featuring the return of Greyvitos, and My Boy Jack is here, not Oaklawn - needs this to get in - Desourmaux bros. ducking the Arky to squeeze them points ...
Doug Salvatore with very in-depth reviews here, pack a lunch: S.A. Derby Wood Blue Grass
some print:
Haskin Drunk On Vino
"Expert" Top Tens
US Racing (offshore) Latest Odds (click "fractional" to put 'em in order)
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Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
wOw, 114 for Justify's SAD fig. even backed up to 3 lengths ahead of Bolty's previous best, it's 110+. That's Derby country!
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Could never figure out people who take the chalk in future pools when final odds are sometimes better on race day. Plus on futures I think you be screwed with a late scratch.
otb_lifer
Footballguy
yeah, if ya check out that Salvatore piece i linked to, you'll see how he viewed that race, and why he thought Justy actually ran much better than originally appeared
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
If he can get to or near the front on a soft enough pace he should win. That's a big if though in a 20 horse field that could mess up the pace big time. Not to mention the ever present traffic problems in a field that big.
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otb_lifer
Footballguy
i think Justy is gonna go the other way, though ... would not shock me to see him 9/5 come post time - for those who love him, 3/1 is a gift atm.
Leroy Hoard
Footballguy
Yeah, I've never been good at guessing the public so you might be right.
wikkidpissah
Footballguy
hmmmm, a giant chestnut vs a sleek dark chocolate - i'm having a Slew of '70s flashbacks. Where my Secretary at?!
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