we are now only one week away from post draw - so, time to start getting down to some preliminary 'capping around this lot. going through this prep season, and familiarizing myself with this crop for the past 4/5 months all leads to this ...
my endeavor here is to construct my tri key box, this will be my main wager on May 5th ... last year's KD, with the favorite (Always Dreaming) on top, yielded 16k and change - supplemented by two bombs (Lookin' At Lee 33/1, Battle of Midway 40/1) underneath. plenty of us up in here recognized LAL as one to watch, especially with his late Ark. Derby run at Classic Empire - he drew the #1 hole for the KD, but that lil' sumb!tch still found a way to clunk up. Battle of Midway was the wildcard, and played a huge pace role behind AD most of the way - and he hung on to bottom that mutha out.
this is the pool you want to attack - that's an astronomical payout with the fave on top, so it's worth spreading and tossing in live players who can help you cash a juicy one. in other words, it's not a Thursday at Fonner Park, where there may not even be 16k in the
entire tri pool ... this is a chance to rake some bucks outta the hugest parimutuel event of the year. time to take a shot. play to cash big.
but ya gotta also cover your ### for a cash with savers - ergo, top players need to be utilized, and this year is toughest in memory, as a solid 6/7 horses look like they can put a legit stamp on this KD. we could see a replay, payout wise, of '07 - where Street Sense/Curlin/Hard Spun took care of biz, and the exotics were meager, at best. a chalk fest ... danger of that this year with the likes of Justy/MM/Mendy/Audible/Bolty/Good Magic all likely in the single digits come post time, and taking a ton of the underneath coin.
but, as i've already stated, this is the race to play against that, because a twenty horse field, featuring plenty of lightly raced colts, going further than they ever have, facing obstacles they've never seen, is the perfect storm for chaos ... the chasm between the elite and the also-rans seems huge this time around, but if this was just all about talent it would be a slam dunk ... 'capping for this is a glorious dart toss for the underneaths - impossible to foresee how any of them handle this - so, going by my gut, based off all that i've seen and analyzed thus far, here we go with an early look ...
the wager will likely be key + 10 - i really wanna spread this time around, hoping to get some numbers coming late.
so, wager would break as follows:
1 over 2-11 over 2-11
2-11 over 1 over 2-11
2-11 over 2-11 over 1
my "key" horse needs to hit the board, that is the crux of the wager ... if he's out the money, so am i. now, if i do get him up in any of the top three spots, then i need two of the other ten to money up with him. it's a deep spread, but i am confident enough in my key horse to take a stab at some longer cats who i think can deliver some huge rewards at the window.
key horse -
Audible
came down to either him or
Vino Rosso - unlike Johnny V, i opted for the Big A
pros: checks off the most boxes for me, has the least amount of question marks coming in ... can attend the pace/rate without getting fried up top - a presser who can deliver a devastating kick home - did all he was asked this prep season, has shown that "push button" ability that will be needed come the 3/4 mark when things get very hot at Churchill. his one move will be from up close, and has the speed to see to anyone up in here ... and if
Promises Fulfilled is frying 'em like the Fla. Derby, well ... we all saw that movie already - safest bet to hit, imo ... can't see him
not being a factor in the stretch/last call.
cons: top side breeding suggests he will pushed to the very utmost limit at this distance, and i would've liked to see him fresher at the Fla. Derby wire - Storm Cats are 0-51 in the KD, and, yeah - Johnny V had first call for Toddfather and went
Vino 
(getting Javi as "consolation" ain't too shabby) - but i don't need this cat to win in my bet configuration, just to hit the board ... matter of fact, best case scenario for my wager would be for him to come in third, with a coupla longer bombs over him.
as for the rest of my tix, a lot will depend on post position/weather/works - but, there are some that i am surely using/tossing, regardless ...
MUST USE/SAVERS:
Justy best three year old in the world, imo - but that doesn't mean he's gonna win or money here ... think he winds up as the top of this crop when it's all said and done, but huge questions coming in to KD - but it would be foolish to toss off any exotics.
Mendy see above.
Good Magic Brown has him cranked third off the bench. very dangerous here.
Vino Rosso best bet to be coming late with authority ... love how he b!tch slapped
Enticed in the Wood stretch .... ya need those kinda balls in this demolition Derby. maybe Johnny V opted to stay on due to the extra whip after the wire?
TOSSES:
Firenze Fire surprised he's still standing ... i now call him Firenze
FRIED - see
Here - he's toast.
Promises Fulfilled will be your rabbit, has zero shot to factor once the Tsunami hits at the top of the stretch.
Enticed will be a potent one turn miler, maybe get dialed back to 7/7.5f sprints as well, for the Belmont/Spa meets. can press early, will fade late.
Noble Indy was gritty as #### in the La. Derby stretch, but was passed by
Lone Sailor for a hot second - and this
Stunods move from Kent D on
MBJ certainly didn't hurt him in winning.
Bravazo see the above La. Derby ... can't get excited about an eighth place finish behind some legit tomato cans ... does have a win over
Noble Indy in the Risen Star, but that seems like decades ago.
Instilled Regard all he needed to do was run an honest race behind the
Justy/Bolt show in the S.A. derby to claim his "free parking" points to qualify for Churchill ... wound up fourth behind NWx2
Core Beliefs in a race
IR desperately needed to qualify. yeah, no thanks.
Solomini i thought
Combatant actually finished better in the Ark. Derby ... has been beaten twice in a row by
Magnum Moon, and couldn't even nudge my whipping boy
Quip for second last out. horrible work horse, and hasn't officially won a race since September '17 (did "win" Los Al Cash Call, but was DQ'd to third for stretch shenanigans - and that was in December).
so, that leaves
Magnum Moon/Bolt/Flamey/Free Drop/Hofburg/Lone Sailor/Combatant/MBJ for my remaining six spots ... that will be hashed out via post position,weather, etc - leaning to definitely using the last four i listed for the closing ability ...
MBJ becomes a "must use" if we do get the (as of now) expected wet stuff.
thoughts on the Superfecta will come after post position draw ... but expect more of the same from above - gotsta take your stands, can't use 'em all
again, if he (Audible) is in that range come post time, it's a definite Derby WIN wager by me for the first time since Afleet Alex '05 (hi, Giacomo 
) btw, that '05 cashapalooza was what set my sights strictly on the exotics for the KD, most notable my tri spread.
oh, and the HOFBURG cat is out the bag ... was hoping he'd stay a bit more under the radar ... Audible had his way in the Fla. Derby, but the Hof mopped up nicely in his wake. will be on my tix, and is gonna need that hothot pace ... i'll take him on May 5th over Noble Indy without question, and possibly over MBJ (pending weather, early forecast is for potential rain).
