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** Road To The 2018 Triple Crown - 5/10: Justy Back On (The) Track, Ruis Will Ship Bolty/Duck The Rain ** (1 Viewer)

Not a fan of the paper pull.  Pills are blind, but the guy has to know which paper he is grabbing.  Am I miunderstanding how this works?  

 
morning line

Fir FIre - 50-1

Free drop - 30-1

Promises  - 30-1

Flameaway - 30-1

Audible - 8-1

Good magic - 12-1

Justify - 3-1

lone sailor - 50-1

hofburg - 20-1

MBJ - 30-1

Bolt - 8-1

enticed - 30-1

bravazo - 50-1

mendelsson - 5-1

instilled - 50-1

magnum moon - 6-1

solamini - 30-1

vino - 12-1

noble indy - 30-1

combatant - 50-1

blended citizen - 50-1

 
Thanks for being on top of it, naturally about 10 seconds before they were about to draw, my boss' boss walked in and gathered up all the key personnel for a big impromptu meeting in my office.  Luckily, I was able to mute the tab on my computer just in time.  You couldn't have scripted it any better (worse) and I feel a fool for having an inkling of hope that I would be able to watch/update this.

 
Mendelssohn at 5-1 pisses me off.  Hopefully that gets inflated near race time or he's going to figure less prominently in my plays.

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
Mendelssohn at 5-1 pisses me off.  Hopefully that gets inflated near race time or he's going to figure less prominently in my plays.
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Battaglia showin' respect ... and snagged GM out there at 12/1 from the six hole ... that is the horse who is gonna take a ton of money - expect 7/8-1 by post time. 

 
otb_lifer said:
Battaglia showin' respect ... and snagged GM out there at 12/1 from the six hole ... that is the horse who is gonna take a ton of money - expect 7/8-1 by post time. 
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I'm WAY more likely to include GM if he stays around 12-1, but I totally agree with you, most of the "wise guys" I've read online agree with you that GM is sitting on a monster trip.  He'll be bet down for sure - I'd expect to see him right in that sweet spot you mention.

 
1. Firenze Fire 50-1

2. Free Drop Billy 30-1

3. Promises Fulfilled 30-1

4. Flameaway 30-1

5. Audible 8-1

6. Good Magic 12-1

7. Justify 3-1

8. Lone Sailor 50-1

9. Hofburg 20-1

10. My Boy Jack 30-1

11. Bolt d'Oro 8-1

12. Enticed 30-1

13. Bravazo 50-1

14. Mendelssohn 5-1

15. Instilled Regard 50-1

16. Magnum Moon 6-1

17. Solomini 30-1

18. Vino Rosso 12-1

19. Noble Indy 30-1

20. Combatant 50-1

I know Thomas the Skank Engine (just wanted to type that name) posted this already, just re-copying with post positions numbered for my own reference.

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
Interesting that Hofburg is at 20-1 ML and Noble Indy at 30-1.
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NI had one shot, and that was on the engine - still woulda tossed if he drew better - but, he is not the specimen type to hustle out that 19 gate, catch up to all the inside speed (gates 3- 7 are deadly), then mount a charge - he'll prolly finish akin to his post #

Hof deserves the love, watch that Fla. Derby close again ... he is now a must use on all underneath configs. would use him over NI regardless of the draws.  

 
Damn, I've already used my new member sign up bonus at TVG, Twinspires, and Xpressbet.  Now I can't remember which interface I preferred - there was one that seemed far more intuitive to me than the others and I can't remember which one it was.  :lol:

 
otb_lifer said:
NI had one shot, and that was on the engine - still woulda tossed if he drew better - but, he is not the specimen type to hustle out that 19 gate, catch up to all the inside speed (gates 3- 7 are deadly), then mount a charge - he'll prolly finish akin to his post #

Hof deserves the love, watch that Fla. Derby close again ... he is now a must use on all underneath configs. would use him over NI regardless of the draws.  
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I agree, I cashed on him when I went down for that race (there's little better than getting to stop by the cashier half-drunk on your way out of the track) - I liked him then and I like him now.  I was hoping Battaglia wouldn't agree, but apparently, he knows his stuff.  :lol:

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
1. Firenze Fire 50-1

2. Free Drop Billy 30-1

3. Promises Fulfilled 30-1

4. Flameaway 30-1

5. Audible 8-1

6. Good Magic 12-1

7. Justify 3-1

8. Lone Sailor 50-1

9. Hofburg 20-1

10. My Boy Jack 30-1

11. Bolt d'Oro 8-1

12. Enticed 30-1

13. Bravazo 50-1

14. Mendelssohn 5-1

15. Instilled Regard 50-1

16. Magnum Moon 6-1

17. Solomini 30-1

18. Vino Rosso 12-1

19. Noble Indy 30-1

20. Combatant 50-1

I know Thomas the Skank Engine (just wanted to type that name) posted this already, just re-copying with post positions numbered for my own reference.
Click to expand...
will be tossing all of this pertinent stuff up into the first post soon as I can get a minute wif my laptop - wanna have eveything compartmentalized there for easy access/analysis/etc

 
As of right now, I would group the horses thusly :

Instant toss : Firenze Fire, Instilled Regard, Free Drop Billy, Promises Fulfilled, Enticed, Bravazo, Solomini, Noble Indy, Combatant

Can possibly win : Vino Rosso, Audible, Justify, Magnum Moon, Mendelssohn, Good Magic

Can hit board : Flameaway, Lone Sailor, Hofburg, My Boy Jack, Bolt d'Oro

I need to find some more tosses here.  Can't box 6 x 10 x 9.  EG don't spread that wide.

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
As of right now, I would group the horses thusly :

Instant toss : Firenze Fire, Instilled Regard, Free Drop Billy, Promises Fulfilled, Enticed, Bravazo, Solomini, Noble Indy, Combatant

Can possibly win : Vino Rosso, Audible, Justify, Magnum Moon, Mendelssohn, Good Magic

Can hit board : Flameaway, Lone Sailor, Hofburg, My Boy Jack, Bolt d'Oro

I need to find some more tosses here.  Can't box 6 x 10 x 9.  EG don't spread that wide.
Click to expand...
instead of boxing, take a stand with one horse, and play the "key" game - you can use one key, with nine hopefuls ... $1 = $216 spread, $2 = $432 spread ... that gives you your key and the nine others in all three slots - key has to money, though, that's the crux. 

 
otb_lifer said:
instead of boxing, take a stand with one horse, and play the "key" game - you can use one key, with nine hopefuls ... $1 = $216 spread, $2 = $432 spread ... that gives you your key and the nine others in all three slots - key has to money, though, that's the crux. 
Click to expand...
I'm considering it.  Problem is that I have three horses I want to key.

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
I'm considering it.  Problem is that I have three horses I want to key.
Click to expand...
if Aud was your guy coming in, the draw should've done nothing but reinforce ... and 8/1 ml is very generous .. may not be used as much on the underneaths as the other big hitters due this less than ideal top pedigree lineage - but he drew a beautiful gate/scenario to unleash that late kick - and he won't have to labor early to stay close, seeing as how PF/Flamey are right inside. 

Mendy is not hurt by the 14 hole, seeing as how the other two early speed factors (Enticed/Bravazo) are right on his inside ... again, he will be another close enough to attend the early pace from a non laboring stalking position ... 

Vino didn't matter .... he was just gonna run his gig regardless of draw, and it's a lethal gig ... the early speed was not greatly compromised by gate assignment, so he will have his hot pace to chomp into. 

 
oh, and the elephant in the room - Justify drew the perfect post for his style - still have a slight inkling that BB/Smiff may just try to wire this mutha 

:popcorn:

 
otb_lifer said:
oh, and the elephant in the room - Justify drew the perfect post for his style - still have a slight inkling that BB/Smiff may just try to wire this mutha 

:popcorn:
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If they do, and the fractions are hot, he could fall off the board entirely, which is precisely what I am hoping for.

 
Evilgrin 72 said:
If they do, and the fractions are hot, he could fall off the board entirely, which is precisely what I am hoping for.
Click to expand...
i agree with otb - the only reason i hadn't separated Justy from the others was the chance he wouldnt get to run his race. From the 7 hole, he gets to be where he wants to be, which is all you want from a 17-hand horse w speed. He also gets no surprise from PF who he'll be out with from the start. My chocolate can't control the race from 14, Audie gets a clear drop into the pocket, so it's 7-5-all, baby

 
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wikkidpissah said:
i agree with otb - the only reason i hadn't separated Justy from the others was the chance he wouldnt get to run his race. From the 7 hole, he gets to be where he wants to be, which is all you want from a 17-hand horse w speed. He also gets no surprise from PF who he'll be out with from the start.
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yep.  

there are any number of reasons to knock Justy, but ... if he breaks well, it could be devastating for the field.  that 7 hole gives him license to fly from the git - so if PF is sent on his suicidal :21.2 again, expect Justy to inhale him early ... and, much as i love Flamey, he's now a toss underneath, simply because he's not anywhere in the area code of attending that hot of a pace against superior raw speed/talent.  heart only goes so long when you're saddled with cement shoes. 

and bring on the closers - if Justy is running buck ####### wild out the gate it's gonna fry a ton of this lot - i will now use 'em all, including Free Drop, who i am hoping can be this years LaL (inside post, closes to the clunk up board) if that scenario unfolds. 

gotta swing big if the fave crushes ... remember, AD did it last year and we still saw a 16k tri - gotta have those bombadeers in play underneath. 

 
I loved Justy before the draw and love him even more after the draw. As others have stated, the 7 post fits perfectly with what BB/Mikey is wanting to do with him. Probably going to still keep him on top, but need to try to dwindle down my other board hitters. Right now im thinking Vino, Mendy, FDB, MBJ, GM, Audible, Bolt, MM, and Hof.

I don't really want to have to do a $5 Tri with 1/9/9.

 
Timmay said:
I loved Justy before the draw and love him even more after the draw. As others have stated, the 7 post fits perfectly with what BB/Mikey is wanting to do with him. Probably going to still keep him on top, but need to try to dwindle down my other board hitters. Right now im thinking Vino, Mendy, FDB, MBJ, GM, Audible, Bolt, MM, and Hof.

I don't really want to have to do a $5 Tri with 1/9/9.
Click to expand...
if you played that for a fin it would bang ya for $360 ... and getting any combo of  FDB/MBJ/Hof under Justy would yield a potential 30k+ (figuring on at least 6k for the $1 tri payout). 

 
Watched a lot of the replays last night as well as listened to Mike Welsch with the daily workout reports.  Then soaking in the post position draw.

Agree that the post position draw is a nightmare for those trying to beat Justify.  Speed is either on his inside or way to the outside.  No speed directly outside.  Should be in a perfect 2 or 3 spot just cruising while NI and other outside speed try like hell to get over.  The problem is even if they wanted to they are not fast enough to get over and get the lead on Justify if he breaks well.  I think all of those outside horses are dead.

I'm limiting the potential winners to 3 horses now: Justify, Audible and Mendelssohhn.  I was trying to beat Justify as don't like the price.  With the perfect post position draw he is the most likely winner.  Audible should have no excuses if he breaks clean.  Saves ground the entire way, the cheaper speed fades as Justify takes over, then he can swing out if good enough.  Mendy could be a freak.  Although he stands in the gate the longest the horse I'm going to put in all my tickets is Bolt D Oro.  If he's off the board I'm likely not cashing.  I love the move to Espinoza (sorry, I don't love Castellano on the dirt and it's one of the reasons I'm not all in on Audible now) and he should get a great stalking trip.  Horse has class. Pretty sure he's 2nd or 3rd. Should make a threatening move at the top of the lane.  Could be SA Derby all over again. I'll play my 3 win candidates all over Bolt for exacta and then maybe all in 2nd to Bolt in 3rd for tri's.  Something like that.

I think the Wood was a terrible race as it has been the last 25 years with respect to being a key Derby prep.  Don't want Vino especially at that post.  Blue Grass was also a terrible race. I know Chad (like Castellano trust him way more on grass) loves GM but I'm not the biggest fan.  Magnum Moon has the talent and some from the AR Derby have run well in the KY Derby.  They say he doesn't do turns very well and the drifting out is a concern.  Otherwise I'd be more on him.  No matter what, trainers with multiple horses send their A horses to SA and FL Derbies and then spread the B's elsewhere.  I think that's the case this year as well.  Hence - my top 3.

So it looks like it's those 3 for me with Bolt and then some longshot closers. 

 
re:Bolty 

i rank his San Felipe in the top five preps of '18 - coming off the four month bench (which included lost training time due to injury) and giving Baffert A-Team McKinzie (Justy was not yet fully on the scene) all he could handle in a fantastic stretch run - best battle of the preps, by far ... no matter what one thinks of the DQ that awarded Bolty the win, there's no denying his effort that day was elite, especially considering the circumstances he faced coming in. 

flash to the S.A. Derby runup ...  i called him "cream of the three year old crop" - then Justy happened - dunno, maybe Ruis knew BB was gonna have his cat cranked to the max, so he told Javi not to push too hard if Justy was beasting - S.A. Derby is nice, but Bolty was already in KD, and perhaps they were working more towards their ultimate goal.  could be - trainers know their spots/horses a hell of a lot better than us punters.  they knew they'd meet again at Churchill. and this will be his third start in the cycle ...

yet he still hung a 100+ BSF for his S.A. place finish ... matter of fact, i ran across a stat that allowed Bolty would've won all of the other final major 9f preps had he run the race he ran in Santa Anita against any of them, given his bsf/trakus/etc. 

he fits the classic distance mold here better than Audible, and the 11 hole is about as sweet a spot this cat could've hoped for ... a definite "must use" who has been under the radar amidst the hype around the more ballyhooed colts - and that last work i posted from Cali was as smooth and inspiring as one could be. 

 
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