Good post. I guess it depends on your confidence:Here's the thing. NO ONE knows what his prognosis is. Certainly no one at FBG. I doubt Gronk, his doctors, or the Patriots really know either. Each recovery is different, just like each surgery goes differently.I guess it depends on whether you are confident enough to grab a startable player later in the draft. The WR2 field is super deep, so if I go this route, I think that's where I'll target filling the hole that's created by using my 5th rounder on the Gronk. Yes, it's THE Gronk.
Thanks to SSOG and Massraider for making me feel better about his prognosis.
And what exactly does "being able to take the field in 12 weeks" really mean? Does that mean he can play 80+ snaps? Or does that mean in 12 weeks he can be on the field and jogging?
I ask this because like I posted earlier in the thread, on his original back surgery in college (which was the same type of surgery), Gronk had the surgery and was shut down for the rest of the season. IIRC, he could have played in a bowl game and/or a college all-star game, yet he didn't. And that was way past 12 weeks post-surgery. I think it would have been 16 weeks after surgery, but I would have to research the particulars.
And for all the fantasy football owners that want Gronk playing every down and racking up fantasy points, I'm pretty sure the Patriots are more concerned about having Gronk 100% healthy in January then they are him playing every play in September. Their last two playoffs runs came to a halt when Gronk was not healthy or unavailable. So if the Pats had to pick between Gronk going for 100/2 in September or in January, I guarantee it will be in January.
This isn't some experimental surgery. Yes, every recovery is different, and things can happen, we only need to look at Gronk's forearm to know that. But every injury we hear about comes with a recovery timeline, Gronk's isn't that much more of a mystery. It was a preventative surgery, to correct something he has been dealing with.Here's the thing. NO ONE knows what his prognosis is. Certainly no one at FBG. I doubt Gronk, his doctors, or the Patriots really know either. Each recovery is different, just like each surgery goes differently.
Being able to take the field means the same thing it means with every other player, who has suffered an injury.And what exactly does "being able to take the field in 12 weeks" really mean? Does that mean he can play 80+ snaps? Or does that mean in 12 weeks he can be on the field and jogging?
I ask this because like I posted earlier in the thread, on his original back surgery in college (which was the same type of surgery), Gronk had the surgery and was shut down for the rest of the season. IIRC, he could have played in a bowl game and/or a college all-star game, yet he didn't. And that was way past 12 weeks post-surgery. I think it would have been 16 weeks after surgery, but I would have to research the particulars.
He's their second best player, and probably second most important. They want him back, and if the docs say he's ready to go, he'll practice and play.And for all the fantasy football owners that want Gronk playing every down and racking up fantasy points, I'm pretty sure the Patriots are more concerned about having Gronk 100% healthy in January then they are him playing every play in September. Their last two playoffs runs came to a halt when Gronk was not healthy or unavailable. So if the Pats had to pick between Gronk going for 100/2 in September or in January, I guarantee it will be in January.
But there's nothing definitive to support him NOT missing 6 games either. He's a candidate to start the year on the PUP list. From what I can tell, he's doing rehab work but obviously has not been practicing. If people want to draft him and roll the dice that he may or may not miss 6 games, that's their call.This isn't some experimental surgery. Yes, every recovery is different, and things can happen, we only need to look at Gronk's forearm to know that. But every injury we hear about comes with a recovery timeline, Gronk's isn't that much more of a mystery. It was a preventative surgery, to correct something he has been dealing with.Here's the thing. NO ONE knows what his prognosis is. Certainly no one at FBG. I doubt Gronk, his doctors, or the Patriots really know either. Each recovery is different, just like each surgery goes differently.
Being able to take the field means the same thing it means with every other player, who has suffered an injury.And what exactly does "being able to take the field in 12 weeks" really mean? Does that mean he can play 80+ snaps? Or does that mean in 12 weeks he can be on the field and jogging?
I ask this because like I posted earlier in the thread, on his original back surgery in college (which was the same type of surgery), Gronk had the surgery and was shut down for the rest of the season. IIRC, he could have played in a bowl game and/or a college all-star game, yet he didn't. And that was way past 12 weeks post-surgery. I think it would have been 16 weeks after surgery, but I would have to research the particulars.
Yep, had the surgery in September, I dunno when in September, and that really makes a difference. My main question about the timeline with his college surgery is this: His older brother had a similar thing, and was rushed back, and put on weights too early. Was he unable to go by the end of the year? Or did he decide it was smarter to not risk another injury, and get ready for the draft? Just a thought.
He's their second best player, and probably second most important. They want him back, and if the docs say he's ready to go, he'll practice and play.And for all the fantasy football owners that want Gronk playing every down and racking up fantasy points, I'm pretty sure the Patriots are more concerned about having Gronk 100% healthy in January then they are him playing every play in September. Their last two playoffs runs came to a halt when Gronk was not healthy or unavailable. So if the Pats had to pick between Gronk going for 100/2 in September or in January, I guarantee it will be in January.
Maybe he only gets 20 snaps a game for a week or two. That'd probably put him around TE5 every week, for pete's sake.
I don't think it's a lock for him to start 14-16 games, and be a stud, but when I read "likely to miss 6 games", well, I do a little research, and I don't see anything, AT ALL, to back that up.
Yeah, his ADP in all formats is at worst late 3rd-early 4th right now. I understand why some people are able to grab him in the 5th right now, but as the season nears if it does sound like he's going on the active roster and wont miss more than a couple games, his ADP is sticking hard mid 3rd. If he ends up on PUP, I would imagine he consistently drops down to the 5th or even 6th round.He may not start the year on the PUP list . . . but that doesn't necessarily mean he plays 16 games either. But my concern is last I looked up Gronk's ADP, he was not a 5th round pick. He was the 28th player off the draft board. Not sure where the 5th round element game from.
I'm just not sure I agree with this sentiment. I drafted McFadden in the first round last year and still won my league. If I can succeed with a bum first round pick I'm sure I can find a way to succeed with a 5th round pick I won't have the first 6 weeks.Not really considering who u take in the 5thr ound will be starting for you, so you will be a starter down for weeks, how does that not have an effect on your team?Agreed - but isn't it a bit extreme to suggest that ONE PLAYER picked in the 5th round is going to be the deciding factor that causes you to go 0-4? Seems to me if you draft well for all your other picks you can survive (maybe even succeed) without Gronk for a few weeks. Then, imagine the boost when you get him back.But again, and it was already pointed out, if you start of 1-3 or 0-4 because you wasted a 5th round pick on a TE who is not certain to be back, whats the point?It is not that simple. If your league has playoffs in a redraft, and you put a good team around Gronk, him coming back for the stretch run is like having a winning lottery ticket. Because he is that dominant when he plays. But it is definitely a risk, and a lot of FF players do not like taking risks, so I get why a lot of people will steer clear of him.Dude, stop with this league structure crap.His value depends on the league structure. Any league with end of season playoffs will boost his value.
It's simple, stay away in redraft, in Dyno he will have #2 TE value next year.
Listen, as long as you draft a viable Tier 2 or Tier 3 TE to cover for Gronk missing for a few weeks it's not like you're getting zero points from your TE slot while Gronk is out.
In Fact, a large effect.
Why would Gronk's value go DOWN in dynasty next year?Dude, stop with this league structure crap.His value depends on the league structure. Any league with end of season playoffs will boost his value.
It's simple, stay away in redraft, in Dyno he will have #2 TE value next year.
I think you're being overly optimistic here. He's still on the PUP list and will most probably miss the first six weeks. When one has back surgery and the 4th surgery on a forearm, it's not like he's hitting the weights right now. To get into football shape takes time.Maybe he only gets 20 snaps a game for a week or two. That'd probably put him around TE5 every week, for pete's sake.
I see NE 12-4 this year with the winner of the NE/DEN game as the favorite to win the #1 seed. I give the nod currently to DEN in both that game and best record in the AFC. If you look at the Pats schedule, it does not look that difficult on paper (who knows how the opponents will turn out to be however). So as far as Gronk goes, the Denver game isn't until around Thanksgiving. The Pats should be 3-0 when they face ATL in Week 4, and I have heard that that is really the target they hop to have Gronk available in at least some capacity. The Pats schedule in the second half of the season appears to be much more difficult, so taking it easy on Gronk early could be a natural thing to do.Yudkin, honest question for you. I think, with Brady and Belichick (and the rest of the AFCE), making the playoffs is almost a foregone conclusion for the Patriots. However, what do you think their chances are of earning a 1st round bye if Gronkowski is either out entirely or only Gronk-lite for the first 8 games? Given all of the questions in the receiving corps and given what a sieve their defense has been recently, I think letting Gronk come back slowly would likely cost New England a bye. I'm not suggesting that New England will rush him back before he's ready, but I also don't see the team taking it slower than they have to.
Thanks. I have a lot of faith in Brady, and think people are selling him short so far this year. With that said, I have a really hard time envisioning New England's offense losing all of those contributors and not missing anything, especially without a healthy Gronkowski to lean on. I agree the defense will likely be better (nowhere to go but up, right?), but I guess I'm just not as sanguine about their chances of taking it slow with Gronk and still making it to 12-4 and a first round bye.I see NE 12-4 this year with the winner of the NE/DEN game as the favorite to win the #1 seed. I give the nod currently to DEN in both that game and best record in the AFC. If you look at the Pats schedule, it does not look that difficult on paper (who knows how the opponents will turn out to be however). So as far as Gronk goes, the Denver game isn't until around Thanksgiving. The Pats should be 3-0 when they face ATL in Week 4, and I have heard that that is really the target they hop to have Gronk available in at least some capacity. The Pats schedule in the second half of the season appears to be much more difficult, so taking it easy on Gronk early could be a natural thing to do.Yudkin, honest question for you. I think, with Brady and Belichick (and the rest of the AFCE), making the playoffs is almost a foregone conclusion for the Patriots. However, what do you think their chances are of earning a 1st round bye if Gronkowski is either out entirely or only Gronk-lite for the first 8 games? Given all of the questions in the receiving corps and given what a sieve their defense has been recently, I think letting Gronk come back slowly would likely cost New England a bye. I'm not suggesting that New England will rush him back before he's ready, but I also don't see the team taking it slower than they have to.
From what I have seen, I do not expect much of a drop off on offense, but I do expect some improvement on defense. If the Pats are winning without Gronk, then they may have the luxury of not rushing him back. If they struggle without him, they will have more incentive to play him sooner and with more reps right away.
Bottom line, we won't know until we get there, which is what makes this whole situation fascinating.
O don't think you've misread them, but if you look at their schedule, the way their games set up, who they face home and away, etc. and try to predict the outcome of their games, 12-4 does not seem like it's really reaching.Thanks. I have a lot of faith in Brady, and think people are selling him short so far this year. With that said, I have a really hard time envisioning New England's offense losing all of those contributors and not missing anything, especially without a healthy Gronkowski to lean on. I agree the defense will likely be better (nowhere to go but up, right?), but I guess I'm just not as sanguine about their chances of taking it slow with Gronk and still making it to 12-4 and a first round bye.I see NE 12-4 this year with the winner of the NE/DEN game as the favorite to win the #1 seed. I give the nod currently to DEN in both that game and best record in the AFC. If you look at the Pats schedule, it does not look that difficult on paper (who knows how the opponents will turn out to be however). So as far as Gronk goes, the Denver game isn't until around Thanksgiving. The Pats should be 3-0 when they face ATL in Week 4, and I have heard that that is really the target they hop to have Gronk available in at least some capacity. The Pats schedule in the second half of the season appears to be much more difficult, so taking it easy on Gronk early could be a natural thing to do.Yudkin, honest question for you. I think, with Brady and Belichick (and the rest of the AFCE), making the playoffs is almost a foregone conclusion for the Patriots. However, what do you think their chances are of earning a 1st round bye if Gronkowski is either out entirely or only Gronk-lite for the first 8 games? Given all of the questions in the receiving corps and given what a sieve their defense has been recently, I think letting Gronk come back slowly would likely cost New England a bye. I'm not suggesting that New England will rush him back before he's ready, but I also don't see the team taking it slower than they have to.
From what I have seen, I do not expect much of a drop off on offense, but I do expect some improvement on defense. If the Pats are winning without Gronk, then they may have the luxury of not rushing him back. If they struggle without him, they will have more incentive to play him sooner and with more reps right away.
Bottom line, we won't know until we get there, which is what makes this whole situation fascinating.
Obviously you're a lot more familiar with the Pats than I am, but my general impression of them has always been that they're not the kind of team that plays things safe or takes things easy when it comes to players returning from injury. Would you say I've misread them, or do you think they're going to make an exception in this case?
That's some big news, where you get that from?Thews40 said:I think you're being overly optimistic here. He's still on the PUP list and will most probably miss the first six weeks. .massraider said:Maybe he only gets 20 snaps a game for a week or two. That'd probably put him around TE5 every week, for pete's sake.
New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski will start the preseason on the physically unable to perform list, according to a person informed of the decision. That means Gronkowski will not be on the field with his teammates when they begin training camp.
Debate: Pats due for a setback?
With Rob Gronkowski still not healthy, our analysts debate whether the Patriots are bound to take a step backward in 2013. More ...
Putting Gronk on the PUP list was an expected decision, given that he had back surgery Tuesday -- his fifth surgical procedure this year. The source clarified on Wednesday that the move is for certain.
Yeah, I don't think you know the difference between preseason PUP, and regular season PUP.http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap1000000213472/article/new-england-patriots-will-add-rob-gronkowski-to-pup-list
New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski will start the preseason on the physically unable to perform list, according to a person informed of the decision. That means Gronkowski will not be on the field with his teammates when they begin training camp.
Debate: Pats due for a setback?
With Rob Gronkowski still not healthy, our analysts debate whether the Patriots are bound to take a step backward in 2013. More ...
Putting Gronk on the PUP list was an expected decision, given that he had back surgery Tuesday -- his fifth surgical procedure this year. The source clarified on Wednesday that the move is for certain.
What I dont get is if these reports are true, and a Week 3-4 return is correct, why hasnt he already been taken off PUP so he can practice with the team?massraider said:However, the more realistic time frame for him to be ready and in "football shape" would be shortly after, right around Game 3 against Tampa Bay assuming there are no setbacks. Now, if that's the case, it would seem unlikely the Pats would keep the tight end on the physically unable to perform list, which is currently where he resides. Having him stay on PUP would guarantee he misses the first six games. Given the timetable laid out, unless the Pats go the overly-cautious route, it would appear they'd take him off the PUP list, with thoughts of having him as early as Game 3, or perhaps Game 4 in Atlanta.
As it is, the Pats have been doing their best to hold him back, according to the source.
Gronkowski's name came up today with an ESPN report saying it was "not realistic" to expect the Pro Bowl tight end to play the first week against the Bills. That was never really in the forecast, but the news is very encouraging. Gronk is closing in on a return. The mid-to-late September projections we had initially are on target. The PUP decision appears much clearer. Barring a setback once he gets back on the playing field in earnest, Week 3 looks about right.
Practice would be the last part of his recovery -- I think I've heard 1-2 weeks before being game ready. He's probably not there yet.What I dont get is if these reports are true, and a Week 3-4 return is correct, why hasnt he already been taken off PUP so he can practice with the team?massraider said:However, the more realistic time frame for him to be ready and in "football shape" would be shortly after, right around Game 3 against Tampa Bay assuming there are no setbacks. Now, if that's the case, it would seem unlikely the Pats would keep the tight end on the physically unable to perform list, which is currently where he resides. Having him stay on PUP would guarantee he misses the first six games. Given the timetable laid out, unless the Pats go the overly-cautious route, it would appear they'd take him off the PUP list, with thoughts of having him as early as Game 3, or perhaps Game 4 in Atlanta.
As it is, the Pats have been doing their best to hold him back, according to the source.
Gronkowski's name came up today with an ESPN report saying it was "not realistic" to expect the Pro Bowl tight end to play the first week against the Bills. That was never really in the forecast, but the news is very encouraging. Gronk is closing in on a return. The mid-to-late September projections we had initially are on target. The PUP decision appears much clearer. Barring a setback once he gets back on the playing field in earnest, Week 3 looks about right.
Dpes 6 weeks of practice before he returns to the field sound right to you?What I dont get is if these reports are true, and a Week 3-4 return is correct, why hasnt he already been taken off PUP so he can practice with the team?massraider said:However, the more realistic time frame for him to be ready and in "football shape" would be shortly after, right around Game 3 against Tampa Bay assuming there are no setbacks. Now, if that's the case, it would seem unlikely the Pats would keep the tight end on the physically unable to perform list, which is currently where he resides. Having him stay on PUP would guarantee he misses the first six games. Given the timetable laid out, unless the Pats go the overly-cautious route, it would appear they'd take him off the PUP list, with thoughts of having him as early as Game 3, or perhaps Game 4 in Atlanta.
As it is, the Pats have been doing their best to hold him back, according to the source.
Gronkowski's name came up today with an ESPN report saying it was "not realistic" to expect the Pro Bowl tight end to play the first week against the Bills. That was never really in the forecast, but the news is very encouraging. Gronk is closing in on a return. The mid-to-late September projections we had initially are on target. The PUP decision appears much clearer. Barring a setback once he gets back on the playing field in earnest, Week 3 looks about right.
It's the Patriots & they like confusion with their players?What I dont get is if these reports are true, and a Week 3-4 return is correct, why hasnt he already been taken off PUP so he can practice with the team?massraider said:However, the more realistic time frame for him to be ready and in "football shape" would be shortly after, right around Game 3 against Tampa Bay assuming there are no setbacks. Now, if that's the case, it would seem unlikely the Pats would keep the tight end on the physically unable to perform list, which is currently where he resides. Having him stay on PUP would guarantee he misses the first six games. Given the timetable laid out, unless the Pats go the overly-cautious route, it would appear they'd take him off the PUP list, with thoughts of having him as early as Game 3, or perhaps Game 4 in Atlanta.
As it is, the Pats have been doing their best to hold him back, according to the source.
Gronkowski's name came up today with an ESPN report saying it was "not realistic" to expect the Pro Bowl tight end to play the first week against the Bills. That was never really in the forecast, but the news is very encouraging. Gronk is closing in on a return. The mid-to-late September projections we had initially are on target. The PUP decision appears much clearer. Barring a setback once he gets back on the playing field in earnest, Week 3 looks about right.
Thats what the rest of the team does before the season startsmassraider said:Dpes 6 weeks of practice before he returns to the field sound right to you?Kenny Powers said:What I dont get is if these reports are true, and a Week 3-4 return is correct, why hasnt he already been taken off PUP so he can practice with the team?massraider said:However, the more realistic time frame for him to be ready and in "football shape" would be shortly after, right around Game 3 against Tampa Bay assuming there are no setbacks. Now, if that's the case, it would seem unlikely the Pats would keep the tight end on the physically unable to perform list, which is currently where he resides. Having him stay on PUP would guarantee he misses the first six games. Given the timetable laid out, unless the Pats go the overly-cautious route, it would appear they'd take him off the PUP list, with thoughts of having him as early as Game 3, or perhaps Game 4 in Atlanta.
As it is, the Pats have been doing their best to hold him back, according to the source.
Gronkowski's name came up today with an ESPN report saying it was "not realistic" to expect the Pro Bowl tight end to play the first week against the Bills. That was never really in the forecast, but the news is very encouraging. Gronk is closing in on a return. The mid-to-late September projections we had initially are on target. The PUP decision appears much clearer. Barring a setback once he gets back on the playing field in earnest, Week 3 looks about right.
If a guy misses two weeks of training camp, does he miss two gamesThats what the rest of the team does before the season startsmassraider said:Dpes 6 weeks of practice before he returns to the field sound right to you?Kenny Powers said:What I dont get is if these reports are true, and a Week 3-4 return is correct, why hasnt he already been taken off PUP so he can practice with the team?massraider said:
However, the more realistic time frame for him to be ready and in "football shape" would be shortly after, right around Game 3 against Tampa Bay assuming there are no setbacks. Now, if that's the case, it would seem unlikely the Pats would keep the tight end on the physically unable to perform list, which is currently where he resides. Having him stay on PUP would guarantee he misses the first six games. Given the timetable laid out, unless the Pats go the overly-cautious route, it would appear they'd take him off the PUP list, with thoughts of having him as early as Game 3, or perhaps Game 4 in Atlanta.
As it is, the Pats have been doing their best to hold him back, according to the source.
Gronkowski's name came up today with an ESPN report saying it was "not realistic" to expect the Pro Bowl tight end to play the first week against the Bills. That was never really in the forecast, but the news is very encouraging. Gronk is closing in on a return. The mid-to-late September projections we had initially are on target. The PUP decision appears much clearer. Barring a setback once he gets back on the playing field in earnest, Week 3 looks about right.