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Rob Gronkowski has value. (1 Viewer)

Eminence

Footballguy
With an ADP in the late 4th Round, Rob Gronkowski has extreme value. You might not have him for 4 or more weeks but once you do you will have added HUGE VALUE to your starting lineup.

...and until that point, you can probably grab a Jared Cook, Kyle Rudolph, or Martellus Bennett type late to hold you over the 1st 4 games of your Fantasy Season.

 
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Eminence

Footballguy
Do we have any concerns about the plate in his forearm?
Same concerns you should have had about Adrian Peterson and his injury last-year. Obviously there's a chance he won't rebound and be the player he's always been but that's the risk / reward aspect of Fantasy Football.

He's definitely Brady's best weapon with Hernandez gone and he should see a ridiculous amount of targets.

 

rickyg

Footballguy
I backed him up with Finley in the 12th rd and fleener in the 15th I think? It's easy to make up or any list production from gronk in the beginning of the season. But if he performs well in the second half you've got a huge advantage.

 

We Tigers

Footballguy
With an ADP in the late 4th Round, Rob Gronkowski has extreme value. You might not have him for 4 or more weeks but once you do you will have added HUGE VALUE to your starting lineup.

...and until that point, you can probably grab a Jared Cook, Kyle Rudolph, or Martellus Bennett type late to hold you over the 1st 4 games of your Fantasy Season.
If you believe in Gronk, I wouldn't recommend Cook or Rudolph. Spending 2 of your first 8 or 9 picks on a tight end, especially when you're planning on benching the later pick after a few weeks, seems questionable.Bennett in the 12th? Sure. Fred Davis, Jordan Cameron, or maybe even Rob Housler even later would also be good.

 

CWood24

Footballguy
Agreed on gronk having value in the 4th. I think he is clearly the #2 TE and probably #1 in ppg when he is back and fully healthy. Where do you value him though in relation to other positions? What is the highest qb/rb/wr you pass on in order to take gronk (assuming you have a need at the given position)? E.g. you're in late round 4 with no qb and no te; if cam is there, who are you taking?

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
Are people just assuming he will set foot on the football field without practicing or conditioning for 9-10 months and produce the same as he did pre-multiple surgeries? So he'll show no signs of fatigue, won't be any slower, and will effectively be the same exact player he was? No ramp up, no potential for any problems or issues, no playing 50% of snaps, etc.? IMO, he could miss time, be brought along slowly, and could end up being fantasy irrelevant for half the NFL season (which assumes he stays on the field after he comes back). If he does not play as much or perform the same, his fantasy scoring advantage will be gone. As I see it, he strikes me as the type that I would be happy to let someone else worry about. I can easily see him getting 1 catch for 8 yards when he comes back and starting off really slowly. Then his owner would be tempted to bench him after a few down weeks and his 150/3 performance might be with him out of a fantasy lineup. IMO, he's too risky of a pick to burn an early round pick on. I personally would rather take someone else at that point in a draft and not have to worry about the potential headaches. I can see drafting him in a best ball format, but in a set a roster each week league I think he will give people fits.

 

bolldpt

Footballguy
I agree 100% with Anarchy. The down time along with back surgery effects and worked back in... you are looking at unstartable stats for 6-7 weeks. If brought back to fast you will have setbacks along with being GTD every week.. you know how Belicheck works.

 
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Modog814

Footballguy
Are people just assuming he will set foot on the football field without practicing or conditioning for 9-10 months and produce the same as he did pre-multiple surgeries? So he'll show no signs of fatigue, won't be any slower, and will effectively be the same exact player he was? No ramp up, no potential for any problems or issues, no playing 50% of snaps, etc.? IMO, he could miss time, be brought along slowly, and could end up being fantasy irrelevant for half the NFL season (which assumes he stays on the field after he comes back). If he does not play as much or perform the same, his fantasy scoring advantage will be gone. As I see it, he strikes me as the type that I would be happy to let someone else worry about. I can easily see him getting 1 catch for 8 yards when he comes back and starting off really slowly. Then his owner would be tempted to bench him after a few down weeks and his 150/3 performance might be with him out of a fantasy lineup. IMO, he's too risky of a pick to burn an early round pick on. I personally would rather take someone else at that point in a draft and not have to worry about the potential headaches. I can see drafting him in a best ball format, but in a set a roster each week league I think he will give people fits.
I agree. He's a risk I'm just not willing to take in the 4th or 5th round. Even if he does come back at as his normal self, you probably have a disadvantage at TE while he's out as well as a disadvantage at another position because you failed to select someone else with that pick.

I just don't see how he could possible be "game" ready by week 6 or 7. And I don't mean that he won't play before week 6 or 7, I mean he won't be his usual self that you expect to gain that advantage at TE. I could be wrong, but I'd certainly wouldn't gamble a 5th round pick on it

 

rickyg

Footballguy
I agree 100% with Anarchy. The down time along with back surgery effects and worked back in... you are looking at unstartable stats for 6-7 weeks. If brought back to fast you will have setbacks along with being GTD every week.. you know how Belicheck works.
That is why you can't back up gronk with a Marcellus Bennett or Cameron. Meh must be backed up with a high end TE like a Finley. Or even an Olsen or an Owen Daniels will do.

You have to draft him and be prepared to go most of the season without him but have a beast in your te spot for the home stretch.

In my mind, the downside to drafting him in the 5th rd is worth the potential upside.

If you grab Finley in the 12th like I did and Finley is performing like a top 7-10 te then you can even trade gronk when he comes back for a top light wr, Rb, or qb.

A healthy gronk will have a ton of trade appeal.

I did a draft yesterday picking from the 1 spot where I got gronk in the 5th. I posted the entire draft with my analysis in the shark pool this morning. Check it out.

 

Modog814

Footballguy
I agree 100% with Anarchy. The down time along with back surgery effects and worked back in... you are looking at unstartable stats for 6-7 weeks. If brought back to fast you will have setbacks along with being GTD every week.. you know how Belicheck works.
That is why you can't back up gronk with a Marcellus Bennett or Cameron. Meh must be backed up with a high end TE like a Finley. Or even an Olsen or an Owen Daniels will do.

You have to draft him and be prepared to go most of the season without him but have a beast in your te spot for the home stretch.

In my mind, the downside to drafting him in the 5th rd is worth the potential upside.

If you grab Finley in the 12th like I did and Finley is performing like a top 7-10 te then you can even trade gronk when he comes back for a top light wr, Rb, or qb.

A healthy gronk will have a ton of trade appeal.

I did a draft yesterday picking from the 1 spot where I got gronk in the 5th. I posted the entire draft with my analysis in the shark pool this morning. Check it out.
I think this will be the crux of this thread.

Although you mention grabbing 3 other top 12 TE's (going by ADP here). So if you could guarantee getting someone like Finley/Daniels/Olsen in the 12th, it might work, but I don't see that as realistic assumption (talking 12 team league here, more realistic if 10 team league).

 

Nucker101

Footballguy
In a dynasty/keeper, I agree. In Redraft, no thanks. I never want to have the team that looks great when healthy but starts off in a 0-4 or 1-3 hole.

 

Jeremy

Footballguy
I have an auction draft coming up in a couple weeks, and I'm really debating how much I'm willing to spend on him. The rest of the league is somewhat averse to injury risks, so I'm thinking there's a real chance to get him on the cheap. I'm having a hard time setting a dollar value I'm comfortable with, though. :oldunsure:

 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
I got him for low 20s in an auction last week. I thought it was worth the risk, as if my team stays competitive till he is back, he can make it the top one. I won't do that for every team I get, but I figured it was worth it for one or two teams of mine.

 

FreeBaGeL

Footballguy
I agree. He's a risk I'm just not willing to take in the 4th or 5th round. Even if he does come back at as his normal self, you probably have a disadvantage at TE while he's out as well as a disadvantage at another position because you failed to select someone else with that pick.

I just don't see how he could possible be "game" ready by week 6 or 7. And I don't mean that he won't play before week 6 or 7, I mean he won't be his usual self that you expect to gain that advantage at TE. I could be wrong, but I'd certainly wouldn't gamble a 5th round pick on it
Have you ever looked at the hit rate for a 5th round pick? There's a better chance than not that you'll be drafting someone who won't help you the WHOLE season. I'd much rather have a guy like Gronk that won't help me the first 7 weeks and will then probably be one of the most valuable players in all of FF.

Sacrificing your 5th round pick for 7 weeks should have a fairly small effect on your chances of making the playoffs (especially when you consider that your 5th round pick could easily end up being sacrificed for the whole year if you draft one of the many 5th round busts), and once you get to the playoffs having a guy like Gronk at the expense of your 5th round pick is an enormous advantage.

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
I agree. He's a risk I'm just not willing to take in the 4th or 5th round. Even if he does come back at as his normal self, you probably have a disadvantage at TE while he's out as well as a disadvantage at another position because you failed to select someone else with that pick.

I just don't see how he could possible be "game" ready by week 6 or 7. And I don't mean that he won't play before week 6 or 7, I mean he won't be his usual self that you expect to gain that advantage at TE. I could be wrong, but I'd certainly wouldn't gamble a 5th round pick on it
Have you ever looked at the hit rate for a 5th round pick? There's a better chance than not that you'll be drafting someone who won't help you the WHOLE season. I'd much rather have a guy like Gronk that won't help me the first 7 weeks and will then probably be one of the most valuable players in all of FF.

Sacrificing your 5th round pick for 7 weeks should have a fairly small effect on your chances of making the playoffs (especially when you consider that your 5th round pick could easily end up being sacrificed for the whole year if you draft one of the many 5th round busts), and once you get to the playoffs having a guy like Gronk at the expense of your 5th round pick is an enormous advantage.
Every year is different, but last year's 5th round crop included Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Peyton Manning, Vincent Jackson, and Reggie Bush.

 

Kenny Powers

Footballguy
With an ADP in the late 4th Round, Rob Gronkowski has extreme value. You might not have him for 4 or more weeks but once you do you will have added HUGE VALUE to your starting lineup.

...and until that point, you can probably grab a Jared Cook, Kyle Rudolph, or Martellus Bennett type late to hold you over the 1st 4 games of your Fantasy Season.
All signs are pointing to him starting the season on PUP, which means he is definitely out for the first 6 weeks. Chances are he wont be too effective those first couple weeks, but that remains to be seen, so I wont use that as part of my argument. So best case is he is back week 7, meaning you get Gronk in your lineup for 6 weeks (they have a bye week 10). So going by standard 13 week regular season, 3 week playoff format, you at best have Gronk for less than half of the regular season.

With this in mind, I think there's a better chance using such an early pick on Gronk severely limits your team's ability to just get to the playoffs than help you win once there. His ADP is late 3rd-early 4th, people are saying 5th round in here but I wouldnt even take him that early. Wasting another Top 10 round pick on another TE as you mention makes even less sense and will negatively effect your depth and chances to get an impact player at RB, WR, or QB.

 

Dragon1952

Footballguy
With an ADP in the late 4th Round, Rob Gronkowski has extreme value. You might not have him for 4 or more weeks but once you do you will have added HUGE VALUE to your starting lineup.

...and until that point, you can probably grab a Jared Cook, Kyle Rudolph, or Martellus Bennett type late to hold you over the 1st 4 games of your Fantasy Season.
All signs are pointing to him starting the season on PUP, which means he is definitely out for the first 6 weeks. Chances are he wont be too effective those first couple weeks, but that remains to be seen, so I wont use that as part of my argument. So best case is he is back week 7, meaning you get Gronk in your lineup for 6 weeks (they have a bye week 10). So going by standard 13 week regular season, 3 week playoff format, you at best have Gronk for less than half of the regular season.

With this in mind, I think there's a better chance using such an early pick on Gronk severely limits your team's ability to just get to the playoffs than help you win once there. His ADP is late 3rd-early 4th, people are saying 5th round in here but I wouldnt even take him that early. Wasting another Top 10 round pick on another TE as you mention makes even less sense and will negatively effect your depth and chances to get an impact player at RB, WR, or QB.
I'm not sure that bolded part is correct at all. There is at least some conflicting opinion that gives some hope,

Some quotes as of late,

"Adam Schefter reported on NFL Insiders this week that the buzz is positive regarding Gronkowski’s recovery from back surgery. Schefter went as far as to say Gronkowski is likely to avoid the PUP list to start the season"

http://nesn.com/2013/08/rob-gronkowskis-health-could-increase-battle-between-daniel-fells-zach-sudfeld-jake-ballard-for-roster-spots/

http://www.patspulpit.com/2013/8/7/4598320/rob-gronkowski-injury-update-buzz-is-positive

 
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BigSteelThrill

Footballguy
Do we have any concerns about the plate in his forearm?
Same concerns you should have had about Adrian Peterson and his injury last-year. Obviously there's a chance he won't rebound and be the player he's always been but that's the risk / reward aspect of Fantasy Football.

He's definitely Brady's best weapon with Hernandez gone and he should see a ridiculous amount of targets.
Not the same. Gronks arms has been a reoccurring issue. Peterson knee was not.

 

Eviloutsider

Footballguy
Is there any confirmed updates with even a general timetable. I am remembering the Peyton Manning year where he missed the entire year after I drafted him.

 

Aztec9er

Footballguy
Are people just assuming he will set foot on the football field without practicing or conditioning for 9-10 months and produce the same as he did pre-multiple surgeries? So he'll show no signs of fatigue, won't be any slower, and will effectively be the same exact player he was? No ramp up, no potential for any problems or issues, no playing 50% of snaps, etc.? IMO, he could miss time, be brought along slowly, and could end up being fantasy irrelevant for half the NFL season (which assumes he stays on the field after he comes back). If he does not play as much or perform the same, his fantasy scoring advantage will be gone. As I see it, he strikes me as the type that I would be happy to let someone else worry about. I can easily see him getting 1 catch for 8 yards when he comes back and starting off really slowly. Then his owner would be tempted to bench him after a few down weeks and his 150/3 performance might be with him out of a fantasy lineup. IMO, he's too risky of a pick to burn an early round pick on. I personally would rather take someone else at that point in a draft and not have to worry about the potential headaches. I can see drafting him in a best ball format, but in a set a roster each week league I think he will give people fits.
This.

He isn't going to start off where he left off the first week he players. It may take him the whole season to settle in, and in terms of fantasy football, it will be too late for him to make any type of impact. Especially one that warrants drafting him in the top 5 rounds.

 

Modog814

Footballguy
I agree. He's a risk I'm just not willing to take in the 4th or 5th round. Even if he does come back at as his normal self, you probably have a disadvantage at TE while he's out as well as a disadvantage at another position because you failed to select someone else with that pick.

I just don't see how he could possible be "game" ready by week 6 or 7. And I don't mean that he won't play before week 6 or 7, I mean he won't be his usual self that you expect to gain that advantage at TE. I could be wrong, but I'd certainly wouldn't gamble a 5th round pick on it
Have you ever looked at the hit rate for a 5th round pick? There's a better chance than not that you'll be drafting someone who won't help you the WHOLE season. I'd much rather have a guy like Gronk that won't help me the first 7 weeks and will then probably be one of the most valuable players in all of FF.

Sacrificing your 5th round pick for 7 weeks should have a fairly small effect on your chances of making the playoffs (especially when you consider that your 5th round pick could easily end up being sacrificed for the whole year if you draft one of the many 5th round busts), and once you get to the playoffs having a guy like Gronk at the expense of your 5th round pick is an enormous advantage.
We can disagree. I'd love to see where you're finding hit rate stats by round (seriously). 7th round and I might agree but in the fifth you're still drafting your core team and I can't imagine that the hit rate is low enough to justify taking a 0 for 6 weeks or so in hopes that a player is able to return to form after what, 3 or 4 surgeries, and no off season training, and no training camp.

I don't doubt that this strategy could and will work for some teams. But just because you make a bet and happen to win, doesn't mean it was smart to make the bet in the first place.

 

swirvenirvin

Footballguy
What's all this talk about him missing games in here? I havent seen anything yet that suggests he is going to miss games

 

Dentist

***Official FBG Dentist***
Are people just assuming he will set foot on the football field without practicing or conditioning for 9-10 months and produce the same as he did pre-multiple surgeries? So he'll show no signs of fatigue, won't be any slower, and will effectively be the same exact player he was? No ramp up, no potential for any problems or issues, no playing 50% of snaps, etc.? IMO, he could miss time, be brought along slowly, and could end up being fantasy irrelevant for half the NFL season (which assumes he stays on the field after he comes back). If he does not play as much or perform the same, his fantasy scoring advantage will be gone. As I see it, he strikes me as the type that I would be happy to let someone else worry about. I can easily see him getting 1 catch for 8 yards when he comes back and starting off really slowly. Then his owner would be tempted to bench him after a few down weeks and his 150/3 performance might be with him out of a fantasy lineup. IMO, he's too risky of a pick to burn an early round pick on. I personally would rather take someone else at that point in a draft and not have to worry about the potential headaches. I can see drafting him in a best ball format, but in a set a roster each week league I think he will give people fits.
i'm not saying you're wrong... but i'm guessing you're the guy who also wouldn't take A. Peterson last year either.

FFL favors those who take chances that pay off (provided they don't take an inordinate amount of bad beats with the rest of their lineup)

Having said that.... in a 13-14 week regular season, depending on how your league awards playoffs spots and how many they award, it can be tough to get back into it after a 0-3 or 1-4 start.

 

Kenny Powers

Footballguy
What's all this talk about him missing games in here? I havent seen anything yet that suggests he is going to miss games
The fact that he isnt practicing a few weeks before the season makes it reasonable to think he might miss a few games.
Missing a game or three is a long way from 'likely to start on PUP', and 'best case scenario is week 7'.
I agree. We shall find that out in the next couple of weeks. Im glad my drafts are only 1 and 2 days before that first Thursday night game.

 

Adam Harstad

Moderator
Do we have any concerns about the plate in his forearm?
Same concerns you should have had about Adrian Peterson and his injury last-year. Obviously there's a chance he won't rebound and be the player he's always been but that's the risk / reward aspect of Fantasy Football.

He's definitely Brady's best weapon with Hernandez gone and he should see a ridiculous amount of targets.
Not the same. Gronks arms has been a reoccurring issue. Peterson knee was not.
Gronk's arm was a broken bone that happened to see an unlucky series of setbacks (a second break where his hardware was installed, followed by a series of infections). In theory, they're the sort of things that don't become lingering issues once they're finally cleaned up. I'd be more concerned about his back surgery, although all reports on that suggest it's minor (or as minor as back surgery can be).

 

Clifford

Footballguy
Do we have any concerns about the plate in his forearm?
Same concerns you should have had about Adrian Peterson and his injury last-year. Obviously there's a chance he won't rebound and be the player he's always been but that's the risk / reward aspect of Fantasy Football.

He's definitely Brady's best weapon with Hernandez gone and he should see a ridiculous amount of targets.
I think this question deserved a better answer.

 

Modog814

Footballguy
Are people just assuming he will set foot on the football field without practicing or conditioning for 9-10 months and produce the same as he did pre-multiple surgeries? So he'll show no signs of fatigue, won't be any slower, and will effectively be the same exact player he was? No ramp up, no potential for any problems or issues, no playing 50% of snaps, etc.? IMO, he could miss time, be brought along slowly, and could end up being fantasy irrelevant for half the NFL season (which assumes he stays on the field after he comes back). If he does not play as much or perform the same, his fantasy scoring advantage will be gone. As I see it, he strikes me as the type that I would be happy to let someone else worry about. I can easily see him getting 1 catch for 8 yards when he comes back and starting off really slowly. Then his owner would be tempted to bench him after a few down weeks and his 150/3 performance might be with him out of a fantasy lineup. IMO, he's too risky of a pick to burn an early round pick on. I personally would rather take someone else at that point in a draft and not have to worry about the potential headaches. I can see drafting him in a best ball format, but in a set a roster each week league I think he will give people fits.
i'm not saying you're wrong... but i'm guessing you're the guy who also wouldn't take A. Peterson last year either.

FFL favors those who take chances that pay off (provided they don't take an inordinate amount of bad beats with the rest of their lineup)

Having said that.... in a 13-14 week regular season, depending on how your league awards playoffs spots and how many they award, it can be tough to get back into it after a 0-3 or 1-4 start.
I totally agree with you here in regards to the needing to take some chances that pay off, but it's also important for those chances to be calculated and for you to believe they are in your favor, that is the risk justifies the reward. What I think a lot of people have trouble with is not letting hindsight dictate future decisions (not saying you have trouble with this, just in general people do). Just because Peterson worked out well for people last year didn't necessarily make it a good risk. It didn't make it a bad risk either. Everyone knew there was a chance ADP (and Gronk this year) could be worth his price tag, but they also know there's a chance he won't be.

The actual outcome only determines whether you won or lost your gamble, it doesn't change whether your initial decision was right or wrong. The gamble (right or wrong) to take Peterson last year should have no bearing on the gamble to take Gronk this year.

 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
His value depends on the league structure. Any league with end of season playoffs will boost his value.
Dude, stop with this league structure crap.

It's simple, stay away in redraft, in Dyno he will have #2 TE value next year.
It is not that simple. If your league has playoffs in a redraft, and you put a good team around Gronk, him coming back for the stretch run is like having a winning lottery ticket. Because he is that dominant when he plays. But it is definitely a risk, and a lot of FF players do not like taking risks, so I get why a lot of people will steer clear of him.

 

Phenix

Footballguy
His value depends on the league structure. Any league with end of season playoffs will boost his value.
Dude, stop with this league structure crap.

It's simple, stay away in redraft, in Dyno he will have #2 TE value next year.
It is not that simple. If your league has playoffs in a redraft, and you put a good team around Gronk, him coming back for the stretch run is like having a winning lottery ticket. Because he is that dominant when he plays. But it is definitely a risk, and a lot of FF players do not like taking risks, so I get why a lot of people will steer clear of him.
But again, and it was already pointed out, if you start of 1-3 or 0-4 because you wasted a 5th round pick on a TE who is not certain to be back, whats the point?

 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
His value depends on the league structure. Any league with end of season playoffs will boost his value.
Dude, stop with this league structure crap.

It's simple, stay away in redraft, in Dyno he will have #2 TE value next year.
It is not that simple. If your league has playoffs in a redraft, and you put a good team around Gronk, him coming back for the stretch run is like having a winning lottery ticket. Because he is that dominant when he plays. But it is definitely a risk, and a lot of FF players do not like taking risks, so I get why a lot of people will steer clear of him.
But again, and it was already pointed out, if you start of 1-3 or 0-4 because you wasted a 5th round pick on a TE who is not certain to be back, whats the point?
True, it is a risk, like I said, but again, if you put a good enough team around him, and can stay just around .500 till he gets back, he can make your team significantly better.

 
His value depends on the league structure. Any league with end of season playoffs will boost his value.
Dude, stop with this league structure crap.

It's simple, stay away in redraft, in Dyno he will have #2 TE value next year.
It is not that simple. If your league has playoffs in a redraft, and you put a good team around Gronk, him coming back for the stretch run is like having a winning lottery ticket. Because he is that dominant when he plays. But it is definitely a risk, and a lot of FF players do not like taking risks, so I get why a lot of people will steer clear of him.
But again, and it was already pointed out, if you start of 1-3 or 0-4 because you wasted a 5th round pick on a TE who is not certain to be back, whats the point?
Agreed - but isn't it a bit extreme to suggest that ONE PLAYER picked in the 5th round is going to be the deciding factor that causes you to go 0-4? Seems to me if you draft well for all your other picks you can survive (maybe even succeed) without Gronk for a few weeks. Then, imagine the boost when you get him back.

Listen, as long as you draft a viable Tier 2 or Tier 3 TE to cover for Gronk missing for a few weeks it's not like you're getting zero points from your TE slot while Gronk is out.

 
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Sabertooth

Footballguy
I agree. There are a million tight ends you can snag later while you limp into the season. But there is only one Gronk. Snag a guy like Martellus Bennett or Mercedes Lewis later on and just wait it out. Gronk will play and when he does, he will give you first round return.

 

Area51Inhabitant

Footballguy
Getting Gronk in redraft is the equivalent of swinging for the fences as opposed to trying to draw the leadoff walk. Yes he'll likely cost you a roster spot for an undisclosed number of weeks but the potential is there for home run upside when you most need it at the tail end of the season. It's all about your individual philosophy about putting together a team but I do like to take a couple of home run shots and mix them in with some safer plays.

 

Phenix

Footballguy
His value depends on the league structure. Any league with end of season playoffs will boost his value.
Dude, stop with this league structure crap.

It's simple, stay away in redraft, in Dyno he will have #2 TE value next year.
It is not that simple. If your league has playoffs in a redraft, and you put a good team around Gronk, him coming back for the stretch run is like having a winning lottery ticket. Because he is that dominant when he plays. But it is definitely a risk, and a lot of FF players do not like taking risks, so I get why a lot of people will steer clear of him.
But again, and it was already pointed out, if you start of 1-3 or 0-4 because you wasted a 5th round pick on a TE who is not certain to be back, whats the point?
Agreed - but isn't it a bit extreme to suggest that ONE PLAYER picked in the 5th round is going to be the deciding factor that causes you to go 0-4? Seems to me if you draft well for all your other picks you can survive (maybe even succeed) without Gronk for a few weeks. Then, imagine the boost when you get him back.

Listen, as long as you draft a viable Tier 2 or Tier 3 TE to cover for Gronk missing for a few weeks it's not like you're getting zero points from your TE slot while Gronk is out.
Not really considering who u take in the 5thr ound will be starting for you, so you will be a starter down for weeks, how does that not have an effect on your team?

In Fact, a large effect.

 

Sabertooth

Footballguy
I don't know, but I try to draft starting level players throughout the entire draft. Maybe a guy slides like Owen Daniels or Dustin Keller. The difference between the 5th rated TE and the 15th rated TE isn't that great. Heck there are only a few who separate themselves.... Gronk, Graham, Witten, and Gonzo. That's the list. After that it's kind of a hodge podge. But the difference between Gronk on the field in the playoffs and a guy like Martellus Bennett is gigantic. I have confidence in my ability to scrap into the playoffs even sacrificing that 4th or 5th round pick. What is that really? Your second wideout? Third RB? QB?

If you go RB, RB, WR, you have three solid players to pair with Gronk. Are you saying you'd rather have a top teir WR2 for 16 weeks than Gronk for 12? I wouldn't.

So you have to start your 10th rounder for a few weeks instead of your 9th rounder being the cutoff? That's your argument?

 
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Anarchy99

Footballguy
I don't know, but I try to draft starting level players throughout the entire draft. Maybe a guy slides like Owen Daniels or Dustin Keller. The difference between the 5th rated TE and the 15th rated TE isn't that great. Heck there are only a few who separate themselves.... Gronk, Graham, Witten, and Gonzo. That's the list. After that it's kind of a hodge podge. But the difference between Gronk on the field in the playoffs and a guy like Martellus Bennett is gigantic. I have confidence in my ability to scrap into the playoffs even sacrificing that 4th or 5th round pick. What is that really? Your second wideout? Third RB? QB?

If you go RB, RB, WR, you have three solid players to pair with Gronk. Are you saying you'd rather have a top teir WR2 for 16 weeks than Gronk for 12? I wouldn't.

So you have to start your 10th rounder for a few weeks instead of your 9th rounder being the cutoff? That's your argument?
My argument is that I think too many people are projecting that Gronk comes back like Gronk when in reality his numbers may be more like Martellus Bennett. So missing anywhere from 1-6 games to start the season, limited use and/or lower production for a lot of the NFL season, and NE mostly trying to get him ready for the NFL playoffs makes Gronk too big a risk to draft in a redraft league this year.

People seem to have missed or don't seem to care that he really hasn't been doing much of anything since last November. He couldn't lift weights because of his arm issues and it appears that his mobility was somewhat limited with his back problem even before the injury. So the guy has practiced, worked out, or done anything that a premier athlete would do since Thanksgiving.

Even though his current recovery might not have had set backs and he "might" be ahead of schedule, he still hasn't been activated so hasn't been practicing. What he's been doing is a bit of a mystery, but until recently it was reported he still wasn't even running yet. I don't know what others see, but that tells me that if the season started today he would not be suited up. It also tells me that he is still got a lot of ground to cover to be the Gronk that was the best TE in the NFL.

If NE starts the season and the offense clicks, I think they will not rush Gronk back. From what I have heard, the likely target for him playing would be to hopefully get him ready for the game against ATL in Week 4. I don't know how realistic of a goal that is and how well he would do, but I doubt he is going to play every snap as soon as he gets back. And the other thing people are using as a given is that he has no set backs to either his arm, his back, or suffers any other injury.

If he were to come back and people get a partial season of decent production from him, good for them. That doesn't mean that passing on him was the wrong call. For me as a drafter, I have found that drafting healthy players has worked out better than drafting ones that were not 100% at the time I drafted them. Other opinions and strategies may vary.

 
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moondog

Footballguy
Getting Gronk in redraft is the equivalent of swinging for the fences as opposed to trying to draw the leadoff walk. Yes he'll likely cost you a roster spot for an undisclosed number of weeks but the potential is there for home run upside when you most need it at the tail end of the season. It's all about your individual philosophy about putting together a team but I do like to take a couple of home run shots and mix them in with some safer plays.
The undisclosed number of weeks is really what determines his value. Players on the pre-season PUP list can come off it at any time and practice immediately.

Players still on the pre-season PUP on Aug 31 must either be put on the 53 man active roster, put on IR, or put on the in-season PUP. Most leagues will have drafted before Aug 31.

If he gets put on the in-season PUP he cannot practice for the first six weeks of the season. Then there is a three week window when he can practice and can be added to the active roster at any time during the three weeks. He must be put on the roster or IR by the end of the three weeks.

The other option is to put him on the IR list designated to return. Can't practice for the first six weeks and cannot return to the active roster until he has been on the IR list for at least eight weeks.

Best case - Gronk practices at some point during the pre-season - then all PUP/IR lists are no longer an option.

Worst case - put on IR on Aug 31 - lost for eight games at a minimum.

Second worst case - put on in-season PUP on Aug 31 - lost for first six games minimum but since he cannot practice while on this list may take additional week or two to get ready.

So-so case - he does not practice , get put on the active roster Aug 31 and then it's anybodys guess when he returns.

 

habsfan

Footballguy
I agree 100% with Anarchy. The down time along with back surgery effects and worked back in... you are looking at unstartable stats for 6-7 weeks. If brought back to fast you will have setbacks along with being GTD every week.. you know how Belicheck works.
If you grab Finley in the 12th like I did and Finley is performing like a top 7-10 te then [...]
Devil's advocate here but if I can do the above, I'm going to stop right there and grab someone else with my 5th round pick.

 

massraider

Footballguy
It will be three months since the back surgery on week 1. A not very complicated, serious surgery. There's back surgery, and then there's BACK SURGERY. This one is the former, by most accounts.

Putting him on the PUP, means he cannot practice for 6 more weeks. Anyone think that's what the Pats want to do? If he's not in football shape, having him not practice for a month and a half doesn't seem like the way to get him into shape.

I was foggy on the original rehab expectations for Gronk, and a simple Googling found this:

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/06/08/patriots-rob-gronkowski-can-return-from-back-surgery-but-will-same-dominant-player/s0KQ2ruAi65rCdxaIulPmM/story.html

Ross Tucker was told about the 12-week recovery period, too, when he underwent surgery for a herniated disk in his back in 2005.

Tucker, a seven-year NFL offensive lineman, played through the injury the season before, but finally decided in April to undergo surgery. And sure enough, he was in pads and ready to go for the first day of training camp with the Bills in 2005.

Many medical experts believe that Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski can be ready to take the field about 12 weeks after he undergoes surgery to repair a herniated disk this month. But there’s a difference in being ready to play and having full confidence restored. Tucker was cut by the Bills at the end of camp in ’05, and never started another NFL game.

“The truth is, it was a full year before I really felt good, and I never felt 100 percent again,” said Tucker, now an analyst and host with NBC Sports and SiriusXM Radio. “I played three years after my surgery, but I was just a little bit less explosive. I never felt like my back was brand new.”


The good news for Gronkowski, who is having the surgery performed in Los Angeles in mid-June by noted surgeon Robert Watkins: Most empirical evidence suggests that he can return to his elite level of performance, even in the 2013 season.

“It’s a very, very common procedure,” said Dr. Christopher Bono, chief of spine service at Brigham and Women’s Hospital. “The chance of return to play is actually quite good, and there’s a 90-95 percent chance he’ll go back to playing at full capacity.”Gronkowski played through the injury all last season, starting 11 games and catching 11 touchdown passes before being sidelined with a broken forearm. And Gronkowski has returned from this injury before, becoming an instant star as a Patriots rookie in 2010 after missing the 2009 season at Arizona following surgery for a herniated disk, called a “diskectomy.”

The bad news, though: Patriots fans might have to wait a little while to see their star player this fall — perhaps as much as the first half of the regular season.

He’s also already undergoing his second diskectomy at just age 24 — though his agent, Drew Rosenhaus, said this injury is to a different disk.

And while the surgery is routine, getting Gronkowski back to the point where he can regularly slam into defenders without issue certainly isn’t.

“Offensive and defensive linemen — and Gronk is included, because he does some blocking — are at the greatest risk for developing a poor outcome after this kind of surgery,” said Dr. Wellington Hsu, associate professor at Northwestern University’s Feinberg School of Medicine. “They play the game in a squatting position, and have a lot of force on their back when they hit 300-pound defenders.”

The spine has 26 vertebrae, and in between each is a “disk,” with a hard exterior and gel-like substance in the middle, that serves as a shock absorber. A herniated disk occurs when there is a rupture in the tough outer shell, and the gel seeps out and irritates the nerve, causing intense pain in the back and often numbness in the leg.

“It was the most annoying thing I’ve ever experienced,” said former Patriots linebacker Willie McGinest, who had surgery before the 2001 season and is now an analyst with NFL Network.

Most non-athletes avoid surgery and let the disk heal naturally over 1-2 years, and many NFL players are able to play through the pain, as Gronkowski did last year. Tucker noted that he played in 16 games with his herniated disk in 2004, but only with the aid of painkillers, muscle relaxers, and an anti-inflammatory injection before each game.

Gronkowski is opting for surgery now only as “preventative maintenance,” Rosenhaus said, and waited until June because he needs the infection in his surgically repaired forearm to clear first.

Watkins, who also performed Gronkowski’s first diskectomy, is also regarded as one of the best in the business. Watkins repaired the herniated disk of Giants star pass rusher Jason Pierre-Paul just last week, and the Giants hope to have him back by Week 1.

“He’s the forefather of disk herniation in pro athletes,” said Hsu. “He has done more of these surgeries on pro athletes than anyone in the world.”

The generally accepted recovery period after surgery is 12 weeks — six to let the scar heal, and another six to get back into football shape. Gronkowski likely won’t be allowed to do so much as lift a 5-pound dumbbell until the end of July, at the earliest.

As Gronkowski noted in 2009, three weeks after his first back surgery, “I sit at home eight hours a day playing video games in the recliner.”

Once the scar is healed, he needs to get back in football shape — which means a lot of work to his core and making sure he can withstand the pounding of football.

“With professional football players you may have to wait a little bit longer because of the intensity that they’ll play, but generally within six weeks, he should be at a level that is probably close to full capacity,” Bono said.

But many players who underwent a similar surgery dispute the notion that they were 100 percent and ready to play after 12 weeks.

“I was put into training camp four months off of back surgery, which was completely asinine,” former offensive tackle Kyle Turley said of returning from his back injury with the Rams in 2005. Three days later, he re-herniated the same disk, and had to schedule a second surgery, which cost him the season. “In the middle of practice, boom, it hit me. I walked off the field, sat down on the cart. I knew I shouldn’t have been out there.”

And doing core exercises with a trainer is much different than replicating live football and being smashed by 300-pound defenders. Former Steelers Pro Bowl tackle Marvel Smith returned to training camp 10 months after his disk surgery, but suffered a second herniation five games into the season, which ultimately ended his career.

“In training camp my core was still strong, but my endurance wasn’t there like it should have been,” Smith said. “A lot of stuff that we do is twisting and torquing, and his body is going to get caught in awkward positions.

“I tried to come back, but my body just wasn’t the same. Everything that came naturally to me my whole career, I had to think about doing it.”

Of course, every player is different. Pro Bowl pass rusher James Harrison had two surgeries in 2011, and somehow returned to the lineup six months ahead of schedule, finishing the season with nine sacks in 11 games. Former Broncos defensive end Trevor Pryce missed most of the 2004 season, but played six seasons thereafter. McGinest made the Pro Bowl two years after his surgery. Bears guard Chris Williams had surgery in August 2008, played in the final nine games of that season, and started all 16 the next season.

Then there are players like Smith, Tucker, and Turley, who were able to return to football but never felt 100 percent, and were soon out of the league.

That Gronkowski is only 24, has already once returned successfully from this surgery, and will be under the watchful eye of Watkins and Patriots rehab coordinator Joe Van Allen, all work in favor of him returning — eventually — to a high level.

“Doctor Watkins did a phenomenal job, gave me a great rehab program along with Joe Van Allen,” McGinest said. “It’s just all about how much you put into the rehab, and how much you do, which is going to determine how fast and strong you get back.”

But many expect the Patriots to be overly cautious with Gronkowski, arguably the most important player on the offense behind Tom Brady. The 12-week schedule would put Gronkowski’s return around mid-September, but a stint on the physically unable to perform list — in which he would be forced to miss the first six games of the regular season — is a distinct possibility.

“If they’re smart — and I think that they are — he’s starting the year on PUP and we’re not seeing him until Week 7 at the earliest,” Tucker said.

“That kid has got a chance at a 15-year, Tony Gonzalez-type of career,” Turley said. “Let him get fixed, come into the season late. So what? Make your push at the end, you’ve got other people.”

Gronkowski fell in the 2010 draft because of his back issues, and will likely have a proclivity to suffering this type of injury for the rest of his life. But it’s not unreasonable to expect him to return to his dominant self and play another decade.

“I’d be a lot more worried about the forearm than I would be about the back,” Hsu said. “He is predisposed to getting another disk herniation, just from his history, but for that I wouldn’t have a poor prognosis for recovery. I would just recognize that he does have back issues and to keep an eye on him after he recovers.”
It'll be 12 weeks pretty much exactly come week 1.

Tucker was practicing 12 weeks later, 8 years ago!

 

Sabertooth

Footballguy
I don't know, but I try to draft starting level players throughout the entire draft. Maybe a guy slides like Owen Daniels or Dustin Keller. The difference between the 5th rated TE and the 15th rated TE isn't that great. Heck there are only a few who separate themselves.... Gronk, Graham, Witten, and Gonzo. That's the list. After that it's kind of a hodge podge. But the difference between Gronk on the field in the playoffs and a guy like Martellus Bennett is gigantic. I have confidence in my ability to scrap into the playoffs even sacrificing that 4th or 5th round pick. What is that really? Your second wideout? Third RB? QB?

If you go RB, RB, WR, you have three solid players to pair with Gronk. Are you saying you'd rather have a top teir WR2 for 16 weeks than Gronk for 12? I wouldn't.

So you have to start your 10th rounder for a few weeks instead of your 9th rounder being the cutoff? That's your argument?
My argument is that I think too many people are projecting that Gronk comes back like Gronk when in reality his numbers may be more like Martellus Bennett. So missing anywhere from 1-6 games to start the season, limited use and/or lower production for a lot of the NFL season, and NE mostly trying to get him ready for the NFL playoffs makes Gronk too big a risk to draft in a redraft league this year.

People seem to have missed or don't seem to care that he really hasn't been doing much of anything since last November. He could lift because of his arm issues and it appears that his mobility was somewhat limited with his back problem even before the injury. So the guy has practiced, worked out, or done anything that a premier athlete would do since Thanksgiving.

Even though his current recovery might not have had set backs and he "might" be ahead of schedule, he still hasn't been activated so hasn't been practicing. What he's been doing is a bit of a mystery, but until recently it was reported he still wasn't even running yet. I don't know what others see, but that tells me that if the season started today he would not be suited up. It also tells me that he is still got a lot of ground to cover to be the Gronk that was the best TE in the NFL.

If NE starts the season and the offense clicks, I think they will not rush Gronk back. From what I have heard, the likely target for him playing would be to hopefully get him ready for the game against ATL in Week 4. I don't know how realistic of a goal that is and how well he would do, but I doubt he is going to play every snap as soon as he gets back. And the other thing people are using as a given is that he has no set backs to either his arm, his back, or suffers any other injury.

If he were to come back and people get a partial season of decent production from him, good for them. That doesn't mean that passing on him was the wrong call. For me as a drafter, I have found that drafting healthy players has worked out better than drafting ones that were not 100% at the time I drafted them. Other opinions and strategies may vary.
Good points.

 

LawFitz

Footballguy
I guess it depends on whether you are confident enough to grab a startable player later in the draft. The WR2 field is super deep, so if I go this route, I think that's where I'll target filling the hole that's created by using my 5th rounder on the Gronk. Yes, it's THE Gronk.

Thanks to SSOG and Massraider for making me feel better about his prognosis.

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
I guess it depends on whether you are confident enough to grab a startable player later in the draft. The WR2 field is super deep, so if I go this route, I think that's where I'll target filling the hole that's created by using my 5th rounder on the Gronk. Yes, it's THE Gronk.

Thanks to SSOG and Massraider for making me feel better about his prognosis.
Here's the thing. NO ONE knows what his prognosis is. Certainly no one at FBG. I doubt Gronk, his doctors, or the Patriots really know either. Each recovery is different, just like each surgery goes differently.

And what exactly does "being able to take the field in 12 weeks" really mean? Does that mean he can play 80+ snaps? Or does that mean in 12 weeks he can be on the field and jogging?

I ask this because like I posted earlier in the thread, on his original back surgery in college (which was the same type of surgery), Gronk had the surgery and was shut down for the rest of the season. IIRC, he could have played in a bowl game and/or a college all-star game, yet he didn't. And that was way past 12 weeks post-surgery. I think it would have been 16 weeks after surgery, but I would have to research the particulars.

And for all the fantasy football owners that want Gronk playing every down and racking up fantasy points, I'm pretty sure the Patriots are more concerned about having Gronk 100% healthy in January then they are him playing every play in September. Their last two playoffs runs came to a halt when Gronk was not healthy or unavailable. So if the Pats had to pick between Gronk going for 100/2 in September or in January, I guarantee it will be in January.

 

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