Roddy White? (1 Viewer)

[gbill2004]

What are your thoughts on Roddy White? Could he have a breakout season this year?

What are his realistic numbers, and upside numbers?

 

[Armando]

Realistically, 60-800-6.

Upside 70-1000-8.

 

[Shiver44]

Realistically, 60-800-6. Upside 70-1000-8.

I agree with those numbers.

 

[gbill2004]

Even with Vick at QB you think he can put up those numbers?

 

[Ron_Mexico]

I would say his realistic numbers

look more like his upside numbers.

 

[Armando]

Even with Vick at QB you think he can put up those numbers?

Yeah, I do.2nd half of last year he was around 25-400-3.

 

[gbill2004]

I would say his realistic numberslook more like his upside numbers.

Really!!?? 1000 yards and 8 TDs??Please explain how you figure this.Even these realistic numbers are quite surprising, again, considering Vick at QB.

 

[gbill2004]

Even with Vick at QB you think he can put up those numbers?

Yeah, I do.2nd half of last year he was around 25-400-3.

How many games was that in?

 

[Armando]

I'd guess 8. Something I read previously.

 

[diesel7982]

I would say his realistic numberslook more like his upside numbers.

Really!!?? 1000 yards and 8 TDs??Please explain how you figure this.Even these realistic numbers are quite surprising, again, considering Vick at QB.

Finneran's 50 catches will go somewhere, and its not to Jerome Pathon.

 

[JohnnyU]

With Vick at QB - 500 / 3

With Schaub at QB - 1100 / 8

It's really that simple guys. If Vick gets hurt, White's value jumps through the roof.

 

[Tillmanisahero]

I think he is the 3rd best option on a team that doesn't throw much or very well. I agree if Vick get hurt it would boost his #'s

 

[gbill2004]

I think he is the 3rd best option on a team that doesn't throw much or very well. I agree if Vick get hurt it would boost his #'s

So you think 800-1000 yards, and 6-8 TDs is possible with Vick at QB?

 

[Shiver44]

Why not? In nine games he had 400 yards and 3 touchdowns, with Michael Vick at QB. With no training camp, no rapport with Vick, in his rookie season.

 

[Tillmanisahero]

I think Alge was hurt during part of that time and I also think that Jenkins will take most of the TDs by WRs.

I would say 800yds and 5 TDs is my best guess

Considering ADP you could get Jenkins later and get more production....thats IMHO

 

[Tau837]

Previous post on White:

Posted this last month:

Last year, the Falcons attempted 451 passes, and the WRs caught 118. Here was the breakdown:

+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Name				 |  G |  RSH  YARD   AVG  TD  |  REC  YARD   AVG  TD |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+| Romby Bryant		 |  3 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	0	 0   0.0   0 || Brian Finneran	   | 16 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   50   611  12.2   2 || Michael Jenkins	  | 14 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |   36   508  14.1   3 || Jerome Pathon		|  8 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	1	18  18.0   0 || Dez White			|  6 |	0	 0   0.0   0  |	2	25  12.5   1 || Roddy White		  | 16 |	4	12   3.0   0  |   29   446  15.4   3 |+----------------------+----+-----------------------+----------------------+

Who here thinks Finneran will catch 50 again? I don't. In 2004, he was the #3 receiver with 23 catches, though he did also miss 4 games.Consider targets. Last season, here were the WR targets:Finneran 81Jenkins 71Roddy 68Dez 10Pathon 3Roddy White had only 29 catches last season, but he was targeted often. Clearly he was raw last season, and has potential for significant improvement this season. That could lead both to catching more of his targets and to being targeted more frequently.I could easily see White adding one catch per game, even if WR catches don't increase. That would leave Jenkins & Finneran to split the the other 70 from this trio last year. This would push him to 45 catches. If he maintains his ypc and TD % averages, that would give him a statline like this: 45/693/5Last year, that would have ranked as WR37. I think that qualifies as sleeper material... FBG says his current ADP is WR57.Now, is that the ceiling, either for White or this passing game? No. Add 50 more plays as was discussed earlier and call 20 of them passing plays, which would give Atlanta 471 passing attempts. WRs have caught ~26% of Atlanta's passes over the past two years, so that means a few more catches for the WRs. If White is the leading receiver, that could give him a few more catches.More importantly, is it possible for the WRs to get more passes this season? I think so. In 2002, Vick's best passing year, WRs caught 28.6% of Atlanta's 479 passing attempts. Entering his third year with the same coaching staff & offense, I could see Vick's confidence as improved, plus he is healthy unlike last year. So I could see him looking downfield more. If the WRs could catch 28.6% of 471 passes instead of 26%, that is 135 catches for the WRs, 17 more than last year. Again assuming White is the #1, or at least co-#1, that could be 7-10 more catches for him over the numbers I showed earlier. That could get him to 55/847/6... WR28 last year.Finally, consider his splits from last season:First 8 games: 8/94/0 receiving, with 23 targetsLast 8 games: 21/352/3, with 45 targetsIf he was able to carry his second half performance forward to this year and maintain it all season, that would be 90 targets and 42/704/6, which last season would have ranked as WR35.Looks to me like there is a reasonable chance for White to end up in the WR30-W40 range, and he is currently being drafted far below that. Hence, he would seem to be a good value.

The latest ADP posted at FBG shows him at WR53--very good value there.Also, it is worth noting that, while the average performance of Vick's WR1 hasn't been good, as posted previously in this thread, Finneran posted 56/838/6 and was WR31 in 2002. Not coincidentally, that season was Vick's career high in passing attempts. If his passing attempts go up this year, White could have a surprisingly good year.There are certainly those who have written off Vick and decided he simply isn't capable of improving as a passer. Those people will tend to ignore White. But anyone who thinks Vick still has potential to improve his passing, like I do, should be targeting White.

I posted that before Finneran got hurt. And also before I was aware Crumpler would miss the entire preseason due to recovery from knee surgery.As of 8/10, his ADP was WR49. White = value

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

I think Crumpler continues to get the first looks in this offense. All 265 pounds of him!

 

[Shiver44]

I think Alge was hurt during part of that time and I also think that Jenkins will take most of the TDs by WRs.I would say 800yds and 5 TDs is my best guessConsidering ADP you could get Jenkins later and get more production....thats IMHO

Actually, according to Pro Football Prospectus, Roddy White was hands down the most efficient red zone target for the Falcons last year. Alge was hurt, but he didn't miss any games.

 

[Tau837]

I think Alge was hurt during part of that time and I also think that Jenkins will take most of the TDs by WRs.

Crumpler played 16 games last year, not sure what you're thinking of there. In fact, Crumpler's splits are amazingly consistent:Games 1-8: 59 targets, 33/440/2 receiving, 56.0 fantasy points Games 9-16: 8 59 targets, 32/437/3 receiving, 61.7 fantasy pointsSo it doesn't appear that White's significant improvement in the second half last season had anything to do with Crumpler, nor did it have any effect on Crumpler.With respect to Jenkins getting more TDs, I've heard this before. Apparently, some people feel that he will get targeted more in the red zone because he is bigger. It didn't happen last year:

Last year in the red zone:White - 7 targets, 6/71/2 receivingJenkins - 5 targets, 4/43/3 receiving

And there is no doubt that White is the better deep threat. Look at the ypc over the second half of last season:

Last 8 games of last year:Roddy - 45 targets, 21/352/3 receiving, 16.8 ypcFinneran - 42 targets, 23/281/0 receiving, 12.2 ypcJenkins - 37 targets, 21/259/2 receiving, 12.3 ypc

So if White is targeted more in the red zone and is a better deep threat, I'm not sure why anyone would think Jenkins will score more TDs.

 

[Tau837]

It's really very simple, if Vick gets hurt, White is money. If not, he's not.

It's really not that simple. In many leagues, 40+ WRs start. White has a very good chance of being a top 40 WR, in fact I think he is a lock for that, with upside in the top 30. Given his ADP, he is value. I think you are missing the value play because of how you feel about Vick.

 

[gbill2004]

Sounds like White is a decent WR4 in a 12 team league then (each team has 4 WRs)? With upside for a WR2 or WR3?

 

[Shiver44]

It's really very simple, if Vick gets hurt, White is money. If not, he's not.

Yet he was on pace for 800/6 season with Vick.

 

[oukurt]

With Vick at QB - 500 / 3With Schaub at QB - 1100 / 8It's really that simple guys. If Vick gets hurt, White's value jumps through the roof.

Add Jenkins to that list. He has been the more impressive so far.

 

[Tau837]

With Vick at QB - 500 / 3

With Schaub at QB - 1100 / 8

It's really that simple guys. If Vick gets hurt, White's value jumps through the roof.

Add Jenkins to that list. He has been the more impressive so far.

In what way has Jenkins been more impressive than White?

 

[-OZ-]

 

[Beaumont]

No doubt. Roddy has been a huge whiff ... the worst/most underperforming WR starter in the league right now?

 

[zamboni]

No doubt. Roddy has been a huge whiff ... the worst/most underperforming WR starter in the league right now?

He's up (or rather down) there, but it's not like Jenkins is doing a whole lot himself. The Falcons passing game, as ever, just does not offer much beyond Crumpler, and I don't expect it to change any time soon.