Romo overhyped based on half a season (1 Viewer)

[kurtrudder]

Not necessarily in this forum but It seems like plenty of Cowboy fans out there seem to think that Tony Romo is the second coming of Troy Aikman and Roger Staubach based on seeing the guy play for half a season.....well 10 games.

Whilst this could turn into a discussion on the pros and cons of Romo's possible success, that's been done in the forum before.

The question I did want to pose was....Can people think of other players in the skill offensive positions who started for half a year then bombed the following season once they became full time starters.

Kevin Barlow immediately springs to mind when he took over in 2004 and posed 3.4 ypc on 240 carries as the starter.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Romo averaged 20.1 fantasy points per adjusted game last year, which ranked fifth in the league and only a shade behind third. McNabb and Manning were a good deal better, but that's really it. (Brees and Palmer were a bit better too, I'd argue, when factoring in SOS). But when Romo played last year, he was a stud for sure.

 

[LHUCKS]

Hmmm...QBs that were hot for 1/2 season that bombed the following year.

I'll have to think about that one...

 

[CD Dragon]

william green springs to mind

 

[Tau837]

Why not consider postseason? Including their playoff game, Romo attempted 23 or more passes in 12 games, and he had 225.9 fantasy points in those games (FBG scoring). That is not a bad sample, and is certainly more than half a season.

 

[BLOX]

I don't think Romo was a fluke. In fact if you go back to preseason last year, there was quite a bit of hype surrounding him. Many people thought he should be the starter in Dallas. I can't imagine what was being said down IN Dallas, but the fact that he made such an impression with so much pressure on his shoulders tells me he is the real deal. I look forward to drafting him and his top 10 fantasy numbers this upcoming season.

 

[awesomeness]

I don't think Romo was a fluke. In fact if you go back to preseason last year, there was quite a bit of hype surrounding him. Many people thought he should be the starter in Dallas. I can't imagine what was being said down IN Dallas, but the fact that he made such an impression with so much pressure on his shoulders tells me he is the real deal. I look forward to drafting him and his top 10 fantasy numbers this upcoming season.

just cause people were talking about him doesn't mean a whole lot. People were doing the same talking about drew henson.the only other person that comes to mind is michael clayton, but he was successful for an entire year.

 

[jerseyh8r]

Thinking with my anti-Cowboy heart I would tend to think that Romo is over-hyped. But looking back at the strength of schedule in the games that he played in last season, he scored 218 points compared to the "expected" 177 (using FBG scoring). This placed him as the 9th best QB in this regard, 7th amongst true "passing QBs"-omitting Vick and VY. I am starting to think the guy was for real...but I still have him as a fringe top 10 QB, not quite a sure fire, start every week kinda guy.

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm not sure what the OP is looking for in an answer, but here were guys that were great their first time around as a starter but did not consistently match that all the way through their careers . . .

Michael Vick 2002

Mark Brunell 1995

Aaron Brooks 2000

Jake Plummer 1997

Brad Johnson 1996

Ty Detmer 1996

Kent Graham 1996

Brian Griese 2000

Shaun King 2000

Rob Johnson 2000

Tommy Maddox 2002

Billy Volek 2004

Some of these guys had solid careers . . . just not quite at the pace they had their first (maybe even only) success in.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Romo looked confident and decisive last year. If anything, he held on to the ball too long at times looking for the big play. He has a great WR corps, a great weapon at TE in Witten, and a great RB combo in Jones/Barber. I'm starting to warm to Romo as my favorite of the 2nd tier QBs.

 

[softball]

Romo looked confident and decisive last year. If anything, he held on to the ball too long at times looking for the big play. He has a great WR corps + Witten, a great weapon at TE in Witten, and a great RB combo in Jones/Barber. I'm starting to warm to Romo as my favorite of the 2nd tier QBs.

Agree 100%, he is LOADED with weapons to perform. He and Chad Pennington are looking good to me later in drafts for the same reasons.

 

[Cowboys#1]

It's all relative to his ADP. Right now I think he is a good value as I see him going at around 11 or 12 in redraft.. Thats about where I would put him, probably drafting him in the 7th or 8th round. Romo did play quite well in a lot of games last year, he was a real improvement over Bledsoe and he still has the same offensive players around him. Barring injury I see him as QB 8-10 this year which, I believe is a tad conservative.

 

[kurtrudder]

I'm not sure what the OP is looking for in an answer, but here were guys that were great their first time around as a starter but did not consistently match that all the way through their careers . . .Michael Vick 2002Mark Brunell 1995Aaron Brooks 2000Jake Plummer 1997Brad Johnson 1996Ty Detmer 1996Kent Graham 1996Brian Griese 2000Shaun King 2000Rob Johnson 2000Tommy Maddox 2002Billy Volek 2004Some of these guys had solid careers . . . just not quite at the pace they had their first (maybe even only) success in.

thanks David, that's exactly what I was looking for.

 

[duaneok66]

I'm not sure what the OP is looking for in an answer, but here were guys that were great their first time around as a starter but did not consistently match that all the way through their careers . . .Michael Vick 2002Mark Brunell 1995Aaron Brooks 2000Jake Plummer 1997Brad Johnson 1996Ty Detmer 1996Kent Graham 1996Brian Griese 2000Shaun King 2000Rob Johnson 2000Tommy Maddox 2002Billy Volek 2004Some of these guys had solid careers . . . just not quite at the pace they had their first (maybe even only) success in.

LOL . . . several of these guys fit into two totally different situations a) they were game managers (won games primarily due to strong ground game AND/OR great defenseORb) the sample size in which they were involved (games started) was much less than ten . . .

 

[EBF]

I'm wary of Romo, Leinart, Cutler, and Young at their dynasty ADP. I just haven't seen enough of these guys to take them as high as they're going. And while 1-2 of them might join the elite ranks, you have to think there's also a risk that they'll sink into Eli Manning or maybe even David Carr territory.

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm not sure what the OP is looking for in an answer, but here were guys that were great their first time around as a starter but did not consistently match that all the way through their careers . . .Michael Vick 2002Mark Brunell 1995Aaron Brooks 2000Jake Plummer 1997Brad Johnson 1996Ty Detmer 1996Kent Graham 1996Brian Griese 2000Shaun King 2000Rob Johnson 2000Tommy Maddox 2002Billy Volek 2004Some of these guys had solid careers . . . just not quite at the pace they had their first (maybe even only) success in.

LOL . . . several of these guys fit into two totally different situations a) they were game managers (won games primarily due to strong ground game AND/OR great defenseORb) the sample size in which they were involved (games started) was much less than ten . . .

Hey, any time you guys want to actually look things up on your own, I'm certainly not going to stop you.If you don't like those options, maybe these fit you better . . .Vince Ferragamo 1980Bill Kenney 1983Scott Brunner 1982Jay Schroeder 1986Ken O'Brien 1985Don Majkowski 1989Billy Joe Tolliver 1990Neil O'Donnell 1992Jeff Blake 1994Tony Eason 1984Ty Detmer 1996Charlie Batch 1998Ray Lucas 1999

 

[oukurt]

Not necessarily in this forum but It seems like plenty of Cowboy fans out there seem to think that Tony Romo is the second coming of Troy Aikman and Roger Staubach based on seeing the guy play for half a season.....well 10 games.Whilst this could turn into a discussion on the pros and cons of Romo's possible success, that's been done in the forum before. The question I did want to pose was....Can people think of other players in the skill offensive positions who started for half a year then bombed the following season once they became full time starters.Kevin Barlow immediately springs to mind when he took over in 2004 and posed 3.4 ypc on 240 carries as the starter.

As a lifelong Cowboys fan, here is I how I see it. Staubach and Aikman are royalty. Romo is like Star Wars Episode IV - A New Hope. Nothing more, nothing less at this stage of his career. NFL Network replayed the Cowboys @ Falcons game from late last season and it got me fired up for this coming season. Romo really sees the field well and has a good enough arm to make all of the throws required of a NFL quarterback. With a damn good set of WRs to throw to and a defense that will bail him out on occasion, I am expecting success but not expecting Staubach or Aikman.

 

[SSOG]

I'm wary of Romo, Leinart, Cutler, and Young at their dynasty ADP. I just haven't seen enough of these guys to take them as high as they're going. And while 1-2 of them might join the elite ranks, you have to think there's also a risk that they'll sink into Eli Manning or maybe even David Carr territory.

Old starter-caliber QBs are a dime a dozen in dynasty leagues. In the initial dynasty draft I just participated in, John Kitna was the 20th QB off the board, Pennington was the 25th, and Favre/McNair went 27th/28th. Trent Green was the 32nd QB off the board, and Damon Huard was the 41st QB taken. The ideal scenario (assuming you can't get a Peyton Manning or a Carson Palmer) is to get some young and promising talent, and to roster enough veteran help that you can still field a starter-caliber QB in case your prospects flounder. Since that veteran help will definitely be available later (and cheaper), there's no reason not to spend high on young but unproven talent.Now, in that same draft, Young was the 4th QB off the board and Leinart was the 6th. I think both of those are sucker picks- if you take a QB in the top 6, you better be damned sure already that he's going to succeed. On the other hand, Cutler, Phillip Rivers, and Tony Romo went 10th, 12th, and 13th, respectively (interestingly enough, the aforementioned Eli Manning was 11th). I think all three of those players represent solid enough value where they were drafted, especially given the obvious preferences of the league. I would be ecstatic with Cutler/Rivers/Romo and John Kitna as my top 2 QBs, and if I have to pick the younger, less proven guy first to make that happen... well then, so be it.

 

[Bri]

I don't think Romo was a fluke. In fact if you go back to preseason last year, there was quite a bit of hype surrounding him. Many people thought he should be the starter in Dallas. I can't imagine what was being said down IN Dallas, but the fact that he made such an impression with so much pressure on his shoulders tells me he is the real deal. I look forward to drafting him and his top 10 fantasy numbers this upcoming season.

just cause people were talking about him doesn't mean a whole lot. People were doing the same talking about drew henson.

I think what you said in reply is true. What's left out though is Parcells, who can be a real bear about giving credit, was praising Romo and that's what started the snwoball effect last summer. Nothing wrong with rolling with whom a HOF coach is touting.You mention Henson and if you recall the last several years with the Cowboys it involves a few potentially good QBs that never quite devellopped:Hutchinson, Henson, Carter and now Romo. There's gotta be a feeling of "finally" for Cowboy fans. That only seems natural.Re this thread, I don't think he's a fluke. He earned his spot and had to learn on the sidelines. Many many many people prefer that for young QBs vs throwing them into the fire.

 

[Warpig]

If you throw out his monster game against Tampa, I wonder what his numbers would look like?

I haven't done the numbers, but I've always been one to look at the more consistent performances. If you average in all the games, that Tampa game probably causes a significant jump in his numbers. But I'd rather see the more realistic numbers since he's not gonna put up those kinda numbers every week.



*eta*

Actually, after doing the numbers myself, that Tampa game didn't make as big of a difference as I originally thought.

I threw out that Tampa game and reaveraged his numbers over a 16 week schedule and this is what he would of had:

528 att/ 352 comp/ 66.6%/ 288.5 yds per game/ 4616 yds/ 25 td's/ 22int's (1.4 int's per game)

Huge yardage numbers, but pretty average TD/INT numbers...pretty similar to Rex Grossman's TD's/INT #'s!

 

[Aaronstory]

It's all relative to his ADP.

We have a winner...

 

[nysfl2]

I'm not sure what the OP is looking for in an answer, but here were guys that were great their first time around as a starter but did not consistently match that all the way through their careers . . .Michael Vick 2002Mark Brunell 1995Aaron Brooks 2000Jake Plummer 1997Brad Johnson 1996Ty Detmer 1996Kent Graham 1996Brian Griese 2000Shaun King 2000Rob Johnson 2000Tommy Maddox 2002Billy Volek 2004Some of these guys had solid careers . . . just not quite at the pace they had their first (maybe even only) success in.

Kordell Stewart 1997Ben Roethlisberger has been regressing since his rookie yearWith QBs, it seems that well-prepared young guys can come in and have some success in their first half-year, but then struggle in the next season as defenses have a chance to really study their game tapes and figure out their strengths and weaknesses. Romo seems to have especially high pressure not to regress, with the powder keg named Owens ready to explode if he hits a rocky patch.

 

[EBF]

Ben Roethlisberger has been regressing since his rookie year

His QB rating was higher during his second season than his first. His QB rating was down last year, but there's some reason to believe that various off field issues played a role in his poor performance. He's been very good two out of his three years in the league. I'd have to see another down year this season before I'd use him as an example of a QB regressing. One bad season after a serious accident and surgery isn't enough evidence, IMO.

 

[Kleck.]

Ben Roethlisberger has been regressing since his rookie year

His QB rating was higher during his second season than his first. His QB rating was down last year, but there's some reason to believe that various off field issues played a role in his poor performance. He's been very good two out of his three years in the league. I'd have to see another down year this season before I'd use him as an example of a QB regressing. One bad season after a serious accident and surgery isn't enough evidence, IMO.

From a fantasy perspective, Roethlisberger has improved each year. 2004 - 21st2005 - 19th2006 - 10th

 

[H.K.]

Anyone remember Scott Mitchell's 1995 season?

 

[cstu]

Tony Romo 2006 Stats Completion % - 65.3Yards Per Attempt - 8.61 Since 1978, 17 times there were QBs over 64% and 8.0 YPA (min 200 attempts). In the following year, six times they were #1, nine times they were top 3. The only QB in this group who finished lower than #5 while playing 16 games was Trent Green (12th in 2005). Over 50% were top 3 QBs.Source: Mike Horn, Fantasy Guru

Who were those 17 QB's and did Romo have the fewest attempts (220) of that group?

 

[FreeBaGeL]

I just want to make sure I've got this straight.

A guy who was 5th in PPG with a 12 game sample and returns this season with a bevy of wapons is OVERhyped as the 12th-15th QB off the board in the 8th-10th round of 12 team leagues?? Riiiigghhtttt....

It's not like the guy is a 3rd round pick, everyone drafted in the area he's being drafted has question marks and quite frankly most have a lot more than Romo does.

 

[Phurfur]

I think the one thing everone is leaving out is the coaching change. I would be as high on him as everyone else if he were running the same system. That being said, right now I have him ranked at #9.

 

[komments]

Romo is currently the 12th ranked QB according to MFL ADP. I think that is about right though I expect him to finish higher in the final rankings. He had multiple TD games in half of his 10 starts and six of the 12 games he appeared in. He was very erratic but that is to be expected of a first year starter.

This season he enters the year as the starter and will get the vast majority of the reps during the summer and early fall which will improve his bumpy ride from a year ago. If you look at him on a per game (where he started) basis, he finished the year with an average ppg of 19.785. He had four bad starts (under 15 points) and six good starts (over 20 points). His low for the year was 10.60 points and his high was 35.30 (FanEx scoring).

He has the same supporting cast so his receivers are solid. The running game is good. I just see him improving this year. BTW, 19.785 ppg would have placed him as the fourth rated QB last year, behind Brees, Manning and McNabb in ppg.

So I definitely don't think the kid is being over-hyped.

 

[Dutch Kincade]

I think the one thing everone is leaving out is the coaching change. I would be as high on him as everyone else if he were running the same system. That being said, right now I have him ranked at #9.

I was thinking the coaching change would help him. Could anyone keep the reigns on a rookie QB more than Parcells?

 

[Phurfur]

I think the one thing everone is leaving out is the coaching change. I would be as high on him as everyone else if he were running the same system. That being said, right now I have him ranked at #9.

I was thinking the coaching change would help him. Could anyone keep the reigns on a rookie QB more than Parcells?

Romo was not a Rookie!

 

[SSOG]

Ben Roethlisberger has been regressing since his rookie year

His QB rating was higher during his second season than his first. His QB rating was down last year, but there's some reason to believe that various off field issues played a role in his poor performance. He's been very good two out of his three years in the league. I'd have to see another down year this season before I'd use him as an example of a QB regressing. One bad season after a serious accident and surgery isn't enough evidence, IMO.

From a fantasy perspective, Roethlisberger has improved each year. 2004 - 21st2005 - 19th2006 - 10th

You beat me to it. I wish all of my dynasty players regressed as much as Roethlisberger did.

 

[senor peso 2006]

You would think the odds are he will be a better QB this year. A full preseason with the reps of a starter will develope his skill set. More importantly, if he is a better player and the Dallas defense has improved (I hope), they will give him more opprotunity to put numbers up on the board.

 

[JAA]

Is Romo still throwing to TO, Glenn, and Witten?

k, thx

 

[LHUCKS]

Is Romo still throwing to TO, Glenn, and Witten?k, thx

 

[redman]

Tony Romo 2006 Stats Completion % - 65.3Yards Per Attempt - 8.61 Since 1978, 17 times there were QBs over 64% and 8.0 YPA (min 200 attempts). In the following year, six times they were #1, nine times they were top 3. The only QB in this group who finished lower than #5 while playing 16 games was Trent Green (12th in 2005). Over 50% were top 3 QBs.Source: Mike Horn, Fantasy Guru

List the names of those QB's and you tell me whether Romo belongs among them. I like Romo. He's a heady guy and a competitor, and he shows a lot of game sense, a lot more than Bledsoe did. I believe that a lot of his early success (the outstanding first five or so games he started) was due to the opponents not having a lot of film on the new version of the offense he was running versus that Bledsoe was running, and scrambling to adjust. But adjust they did, and Romo had a relatively unexciting December. I think Romo will be good and will be a fantasy starter, but I think he'll end up falling between QB7 and QB12 or so.

 

[Tau837]

Tony Romo 2006 Stats Completion % - 65.3Yards Per Attempt - 8.61 Since 1978, 17 times there were QBs over 64% and 8.0 YPA (min 200 attempts). In the following year, six times they were #1, nine times they were top 3. The only QB in this group who finished lower than #5 while playing 16 games was Trent Green (12th in 2005). Over 50% were top 3 QBs.Source: Mike Horn, Fantasy Guru

List the names of those QB's and you tell me whether Romo belongs among them. I like Romo. He's a heady guy and a competitor, and he shows a lot of game sense, a lot more than Bledsoe did. I believe that a lot of his early success (the outstanding first five or so games he started) was due to the opponents not having a lot of film on the new version of the offense he was running versus that Bledsoe was running, and scrambling to adjust. But adjust they did, and Romo had a relatively unexciting December. I think Romo will be good and will be a fantasy starter, but I think he'll end up falling between QB7 and QB12 or so.

It is interesting to look at his splits. He had 12 games with 23 or more attempts. Splitting them:1st 6 (weeks 7-12): 123/178 (69.1%) for 1621 yards (9.1 ypa), 12 TDs, 5 interceptionsLast 6 (weeks 13-17 plus playoff game): 112/186 (60.2%) for 1436 yards (7.7 ypa), 7 TDs, 8 interceptionsEvery indicator got worse in his second half. I don't remember if there were injuries and didn't have time to look up SOS, but a glance at his schedule didn't seem to show that his schedule was significantly harder...How is this dropoff explained? Is it something more than just rookie QB fluctuation?Taking the last 6 weeks and adjusting for 16 games yields 496 attempts for 3829 passing yards, 19 TDs, and 21 interceptions. 263 fantasy points using FBG scoring. That would have been good enough for QB8 last season. So even if his hot streak was just that and his second half was more indicative of what to expect, the potential is there for him to be a top 10 QB.

 

[cstu]

Tony Romo 2006 Stats Completion % - 65.3Yards Per Attempt - 8.61 Since 1978, 17 times there were QBs over 64% and 8.0 YPA (min 200 attempts). In the following year, six times they were #1, nine times they were top 3. The only QB in this group who finished lower than #5 while playing 16 games was Trent Green (12th in 2005). Over 50% were top 3 QBs.Source: Mike Horn, Fantasy Guru

List the names of those QB's and you tell me whether Romo belongs among them. I like Romo. He's a heady guy and a competitor, and he shows a lot of game sense, a lot more than Bledsoe did. I believe that a lot of his early success (the outstanding first five or so games he started) was due to the opponents not having a lot of film on the new version of the offense he was running versus that Bledsoe was running, and scrambling to adjust. But adjust they did, and Romo had a relatively unexciting December. I think Romo will be good and will be a fantasy starter, but I think he'll end up falling between QB7 and QB12 or so.

It is interesting to look at his splits. He had 12 games with 23 or more attempts. Splitting them:1st 6 (weeks 7-12): 123/178 (69.1%) for 1621 yards (9.1 ypa), 12 TDs, 5 interceptionsLast 6 (weeks 13-17 plus playoff game): 112/186 (60.2%) for 1436 yards (7.7 ypa), 7 TDs, 8 interceptionsEvery indicator got worse in his second half. I don't remember if there were injuries and didn't have time to look up SOS, but a glance at his schedule didn't seem to show that his schedule was significantly harder...How is this dropoff explained? Is it something more than just rookie QB fluctuation?Taking the last 6 weeks and adjusting for 16 games yields 496 attempts for 3829 passing yards, 19 TDs, and 21 interceptions. 263 fantasy points using FBG scoring. That would have been good enough for QB8 last season. So even if his hot streak was just that and his second half was more indicative of what to expect, the potential is there for him to be a top 10 QB.

He has too many weapons not to have the potential of being a top-10 QB but I believe he's ranked way too high considering the risk. I cringed when I saw that Dodds has him ranked two spots above McNabb. I personally wouldn't take him in the top 15 since there are guys with just as much potential but much less risk.

 

[dparker713]

He really just played lights out to start, but after that he was noticably worse. Also, he did have a truly monster game that skews his totals some. I think you're more likely to get the guy from the last 6 games than the first, but even still he'd make a decent spot starter.

 

[Tau837]

He really just played lights out to start, but after that he was noticably worse. Also, he did have a truly monster game that skews his totals some. I think you're more likely to get the guy from the last 6 games than the first, but even still he'd make a decent spot starter.

Did you notice above where I showed that his fantasy production in the last 6 games, if carried over 16 games, would have been good enough for QB8 last year? I'd say that's more than a spot starter, unless you play in a small league.I forgot to mention above, I was a bit surprised his rushing numbers weren't better. Having watched him, I would have expected more... not Vick or Young caliber, but still more...

 

[kensat30]

I find it hard to believe that Romo will finish outside of the top10 QBs this seasons. And you can draft him as a QB#2 in a standard size league. That's value.

 

[softball]

He really just played lights out to start, but after that he was noticably worse. Also, he did have a truly monster game that skews his totals some. I think you're more likely to get the guy from the last 6 games than the first, but even still he'd make a decent spot starter.

Did you notice above where I showed that his fantasy production in the last 6 games, if carried over 16 games, would have been good enough for QB8 last year? I'd say that's more than a spot starter, unless you play in a small league.I forgot to mention above, I was a bit surprised his rushing numbers weren't better. Having watched him, I would have expected more... not Vick or Young caliber, but still more...

Bill Parcells hates QBs that run, they get hurt. He may sprint more in 2007 but I doubt it. The offensive line has been addressed, I'm not sure it's appreciably better. But they have tried to make it so, if he gets te time I expect him to have. He is just too loaded to fall out of the Top 12 in QB points scored.2 good RBs, Three WRs and a very good TE to disperse the ball to. Hard to argue with that potential for Fantasy production.

 

[kensat30]

He really just played lights out to start, but after that he was noticably worse. Also, he did have a truly monster game that skews his totals some. I think you're more likely to get the guy from the last 6 games than the first, but even still he'd make a decent spot starter.

Did you notice above where I showed that his fantasy production in the last 6 games, if carried over 16 games, would have been good enough for QB8 last year? I'd say that's more than a spot starter, unless you play in a small league.I forgot to mention above, I was a bit surprised his rushing numbers weren't better. Having watched him, I would have expected more... not Vick or Young caliber, but still more...

I think Romo is a candidate for solid QB rushing numbers 200+/2+. He ran for 40+ yards in a game last year and converted a 2 pointer with his legs. I almost remember a couple times near the goalline last year where he could have ran it in, but ended up passing for the score instead.

 

[Tau837]

He really just played lights out to start, but after that he was noticably worse. Also, he did have a truly monster game that skews his totals some. I think you're more likely to get the guy from the last 6 games than the first, but even still he'd make a decent spot starter.

Did you notice above where I showed that his fantasy production in the last 6 games, if carried over 16 games, would have been good enough for QB8 last year? I'd say that's more than a spot starter, unless you play in a small league.I forgot to mention above, I was a bit surprised his rushing numbers weren't better. Having watched him, I would have expected more... not Vick or Young caliber, but still more...

I think Romo is a candidate for solid QB rushing numbers 200+/2+. He ran for 40+ yards in a game last year and converted a 2 pointer with his legs. I almost remember a couple times near the goalline last year where he could have ran it in, but ended up passing for the score instead.

It seems like from a passing standpoint, his worst case would be to perform like he did the final 6 games last year... which projects to QB8 (at least last year). That is without rushing, but it seems that there is potential for him to add some rushing numbers... add 200/2 rushing to that QB8 projection and he would have been within 10 fantasy points of QB3 last year.I just don't see the projections that don't have him in the top 10, unless they are projecting injury either to Romo himself or to his offensive teammates. It seems to me that he has an excellent chance of finishing in the top 5. I would project top 10 to be more conservative, but there is definite upside from there.

 

[dparker713]

He really just played lights out to start, but after that he was noticably worse. Also, he did have a truly monster game that skews his totals some. I think you're more likely to get the guy from the last 6 games than the first, but even still he'd make a decent spot starter.

Did you notice above where I showed that his fantasy production in the last 6 games, if carried over 16 games, would have been good enough for QB8 last year? I'd say that's more than a spot starter, unless you play in a small league.I forgot to mention above, I was a bit surprised his rushing numbers weren't better. Having watched him, I would have expected more... not Vick or Young caliber, but still more...

Well, FBG stats only deduct 1 for an int. In a -2 league a negative TD/INT ratio hurts alot more. Plus, not too many QBs have a long enough leash to throw that many interceptions without seeing the bench at some point. I say he's a spot starter, because I don't project him as a must start. The stats he posted at the end of last year project to about QB 8, but QB 8 was closer to QB19 than QB6. He's a good candidate for QBBC, but I wouldn't want to have to rely on him week in and week out.

 

[Tau837]

He really just played lights out to start, but after that he was noticably worse. Also, he did have a truly monster game that skews his totals some. I think you're more likely to get the guy from the last 6 games than the first, but even still he'd make a decent spot starter.

Did you notice above where I showed that his fantasy production in the last 6 games, if carried over 16 games, would have been good enough for QB8 last year? I'd say that's more than a spot starter, unless you play in a small league.I forgot to mention above, I was a bit surprised his rushing numbers weren't better. Having watched him, I would have expected more... not Vick or Young caliber, but still more...

Well, FBG stats only deduct 1 for an int. In a -2 league a negative TD/INT ratio hurts alot more. Plus, not too many QBs have a long enough leash to throw that many interceptions without seeing the bench at some point. I say he's a spot starter, because I don't project him as a must start. The stats he posted at the end of last year project to about QB 8, but QB 8 was closer to QB19 than QB6. He's a good candidate for QBBC, but I wouldn't want to have to rely on him week in and week out.

So you think he will play like he ended last season, with no improvement in either the passing or running games?

 

[Buckna]

Is Romo still throwing to TO, Glenn, and Witten?k, thx

To play dynasty devil's advocate, how much longer will he be throwing to TO and Glenn? Both are 34 this year and neither have been exactly the model of health during their careers.

 

[dparker713]

He really just played lights out to start, but after that he was noticably worse. Also, he did have a truly monster game that skews his totals some. I think you're more likely to get the guy from the last 6 games than the first, but even still he'd make a decent spot starter.

Did you notice above where I showed that his fantasy production in the last 6 games, if carried over 16 games, would have been good enough for QB8 last year? I'd say that's more than a spot starter, unless you play in a small league.I forgot to mention above, I was a bit surprised his rushing numbers weren't better. Having watched him, I would have expected more... not Vick or Young caliber, but still more...

Well, FBG stats only deduct 1 for an int. In a -2 league a negative TD/INT ratio hurts alot more. Plus, not too many QBs have a long enough leash to throw that many interceptions without seeing the bench at some point. I say he's a spot starter, because I don't project him as a must start. The stats he posted at the end of last year project to about QB 8, but QB 8 was closer to QB19 than QB6. He's a good candidate for QBBC, but I wouldn't want to have to rely on him week in and week out.

So you think he will play like he ended last season, with no improvement in either the passing or running games?

I think he's closer to the last 6 games than he is the all pro level he displayed the first 6. I'd anticipate him cutting down on the ints somewhat, but also I expect erractic play as he goes through growing pains. To me, he still needs to show something before I'd be comfortable penciling him in as an every week starter.

 

[Tau837]

He really just played lights out to start, but after that he was noticably worse. Also, he did have a truly monster game that skews his totals some. I think you're more likely to get the guy from the last 6 games than the first, but even still he'd make a decent spot starter.

Did you notice above where I showed that his fantasy production in the last 6 games, if carried over 16 games, would have been good enough for QB8 last year? I'd say that's more than a spot starter, unless you play in a small league.I forgot to mention above, I was a bit surprised his rushing numbers weren't better. Having watched him, I would have expected more... not Vick or Young caliber, but still more...

Well, FBG stats only deduct 1 for an int. In a -2 league a negative TD/INT ratio hurts alot more. Plus, not too many QBs have a long enough leash to throw that many interceptions without seeing the bench at some point. I say he's a spot starter, because I don't project him as a must start. The stats he posted at the end of last year project to about QB 8, but QB 8 was closer to QB19 than QB6. He's a good candidate for QBBC, but I wouldn't want to have to rely on him week in and week out.

So you think he will play like he ended last season, with no improvement in either the passing or running games?

I think he's closer to the last 6 games than he is the all pro level he displayed the first 6. I'd anticipate him cutting down on the ints somewhat, but also I expect erractic play as he goes through growing pains. To me, he still needs to show something before I'd be comfortable penciling him in as an every week starter.

And erratic play means play like his last 6 games last year, or worse than that? Sorry I'm being persistent, but if we take his last 6 games, which were significantly worse than his first 6, and cut down on his interceptions (your suggestion) he is still at top 8 QB level with no improvement in passing or running. Meanwhile, we have seen him perform much better, just last season (in the first 6 games). And the point of taking his last 6 games is perhaps to say he won't be better than that passing, but what about running? He seems to be a very capable runner who didn't happen to put up running numbers... that could change.In order to project him out of the top 8, you have to be projecting no running improvement combined with worse passing than his final 6 games last season, unless you are projecting injury. Right?

 

[dparker713]

He really just played lights out to start, but after that he was noticably worse. Also, he did have a truly monster game that skews his totals some. I think you're more likely to get the guy from the last 6 games than the first, but even still he'd make a decent spot starter.

Did you notice above where I showed that his fantasy production in the last 6 games, if carried over 16 games, would have been good enough for QB8 last year? I'd say that's more than a spot starter, unless you play in a small league.I forgot to mention above, I was a bit surprised his rushing numbers weren't better. Having watched him, I would have expected more... not Vick or Young caliber, but still more...

Well, FBG stats only deduct 1 for an int. In a -2 league a negative TD/INT ratio hurts alot more. Plus, not too many QBs have a long enough leash to throw that many interceptions without seeing the bench at some point. I say he's a spot starter, because I don't project him as a must start. The stats he posted at the end of last year project to about QB 8, but QB 8 was closer to QB19 than QB6. He's a good candidate for QBBC, but I wouldn't want to have to rely on him week in and week out.

So you think he will play like he ended last season, with no improvement in either the passing or running games?

I think he's closer to the last 6 games than he is the all pro level he displayed the first 6. I'd anticipate him cutting down on the ints somewhat, but also I expect erractic play as he goes through growing pains. To me, he still needs to show something before I'd be comfortable penciling him in as an every week starter.

And erratic play means play like his last 6 games last year, or worse than that? Sorry I'm being persistent, but if we take his last 6 games, which were significantly worse than his first 6, and cut down on his interceptions (your suggestion) he is still at top 8 QB level with no improvement in passing or running. Meanwhile, we have seen him perform much better, just last season (in the first 6 games). And the point of taking his last 6 games is perhaps to say he won't be better than that passing, but what about running? He seems to be a very capable runner who didn't happen to put up running numbers... that could change.In order to project him out of the top 8, you have to be projecting no running improvement combined with worse passing than his final 6 games last season, unless you are projecting injury. Right?

Sorry, but top 8 last year isnt impressive. Take a look at the breakdown of all the QBs. There's a big gap between 6 and 7 and another big gap down to 8. Once you get to 8 you can basically lump in a whole host of other players. One big game here or there or a couple of especially bad games and you drop out of the top 10. There just isnt that much differentiation at that level. He's got good skill position players around him and he's got a chance to post good numbers. He's got a good opportunity with no real competition, but he's still highly untested. And while he's shown signs of being very good, it could have just taken some time for defenses to adjust. Don't forget, that his ypa is very high - Peyton high, and may not be sustainable. Given all the players at the QB position I can see him being drafted anywhere from QB8 - QB18. He's got more upside than many of the others in his bunching, but he's also got considerable bust potential. If Im picking up Romo, Im also making sure that Im pickng up a more settled starter soon thereafter.