Rudi Johnson (1 Viewer)

[placeholder10391]

I recently traded for Rudi Johnson in my dynasty league (traded Charles Rogers) without knowing a whole lot about him, other than that he and Barlow and Dom Davis are the hot new RB prospects coming into this season.I remember Rudi having some awesome games last year, but I think I really had undervalued him. Looking back at the stats:967 yards rushing, 9 rushing TDs146 yards receivingThe thing that really blew my mind - he only started FIVE games!He recently set a goal for himself of 1,500 yards rushing, and I read that Marvin Lewis plans to pound the ball plenty to give Palmer some breathing room, especially early on.Figure in another 100 carries next season, at his 4.5 YPC, you are looking at about a 1,500 yards, 13 TD season. Am I missing something here? Is this guy really that good? And if so, why is he ranked so low by FBG expert rankings? OT

 

[Colin Dowling]

Did you see the part where a great number of his games were under 4 ypc? Colin

 

[shadyridr]

The thing I love about him is the TD's. He's a big RB, he had 9 TD's last year as the part-time RB. Now as the fulltime RB in a good offense he should get alot of TD's. He even broke alot of long runs last year.

 

[Burning Sensation]

He did not put up very good numbers against top defenses, and their schedule is loaded with them this year.1150 yards, 10 TD's, 210 REC yards

 

[P Boy]

Am I missing something here? Is this guy really that good? And if so, why is he ranked so low by FBG expert rankings?

Did you also see that all his big games were against non-division opponents at home? On the road & against division opponents both home & away he was definitely subpar. That's a bad sign for a RB who is trying to win the featured RB role for a team fighting for playoff position.

 

[placeholder10391]

Did you see the part where a great number of his games were under 4 ypc?

Colin

Nope, but do I care? If the bottom line is that over 200+ carries he averaged 4.5 yards per carry, that is fine with me.

Did he have under 4 in some games? Sweet, that means he had over 5 in others ...

 

[Sweet Love]

I watched him a lot last year because I owned Dillon and I think he is a decent RB (top 15-20) as far as ability is concerned. He certainly will be given an opportunity to perform in that offense, but I am always wary of guys who come in at the end of the year and rip it up and then disappear the next year (W. Green for example). I think a year from now, we are going to look back and realize that at least two of these four guys who had a good ending (Barlow, D. Davis, R. Johnson and T. Jones) will flop this coming fall. I digress and I apologize. Rudi seemed to be pretty good, but then why did the Bung Bungs draft Chris Perry?

 

[Colin Dowling]

Did you see the part where a great number of his games were under 4 ypc?

Colin

Nope, but do I care? If the bottom line is that over 200+ carries he averaged 4.5 yards per carry, that is fine with me.

Did he have under 4 in some games? Sweet, that means he had over 5 in others ...

FF PLayoffs...Week 14: 4 carries, 10 yards, 0 TDs.

Week 15: 21 carries, 174 yards, 2 TDs.

Week 16 Championship: 11 carries, 30 yards, 0 TDs.

You might want someone a wee bit more consistant in the 2nd round.

Colin

 

[David Yudkin]

Perhaps the singularly most inaccurate thing we all can do in reviewing potential fantasy football performance is simply extrapolating stats from a partial season. Very rarely does the player in question ever get that level of production, and this may be the case with Johnson.Here are his stats when he started:

| WK  OPP  |  RSH   YD   |  RECYD | TD |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  5  buf  |   20    69  |    10  |  1 ||  8  sea  |   27   101  |    16  |  1 || 10  hou  |   43   182  |    18  |  2 || 11  kan  |   22   165  |    12  |  0 || 15  sfo  |   21   174  |     8  |  2 |+----------+-------------+--------+----+|  TOTAL   |  133   691  |    64  |  6 |

Based on those 5 games, we can project him to a season with:426 carries, 2211 rushing yards, 205 receiving yards, and 19 TD.Obviously, Rudi WILL NOT be putting up a season quite like that. As others have mentioned, his 4 biggest games were against opponents that had poor run defenses, and Johnson will not be as fortune to play against them again this year.People have been suggesting that Johnson could get 1,500 rushing yards. I suppose that's possible, but bear in mind that there have only been 25 or 30 times that a RB has ever had 1,500 yards rushing in a season.Is Rudi Johnson really in that strata of uber elite RB? And who knows what role Chris Perry will have and how he will impact Johnson's numbers?I think a more realistic range would be similar to what Dillon had while he was with Cincy, so I'm guessing maybe 1,200 yards rushing and maybe 200 receiving yards. TD are hard to predict, but I see him getting around 8 TD (don't see him getting more than 10).That's 188 fantasy points, which last year would have been good for the #13 RB.Those aren't bad numbers and he would potentially be a good #2 RB if he posted those totals. I would just temper my enthusiam some if anyone has visions of him turning into a Top 5 RB, although stranger things have happened.

 

[There it is]

Did you see the part where a great number of his games were under 4 ypc? 

Colin

Nope, but do I care? If the bottom line is that over 200+ carries he averaged 4.5 yards per carry, that is fine with me.

Did he have under 4 in some games? Sweet, that means he had over 5 in others ...

FF PLayoffs...Week 14: 4 carries, 10 yards, 0 TDs.

Week 15: 21 carries, 174 yards, 2 TDs.

Week 16 Championship: 11 carries, 30 yards, 0 TDs.

You might want someone a wee bit more consistant in the 2nd round.

Colin

Wow,Balt. really has his #. Looks like you wouldn't make week 15.Colin Why do you always have to shine the light of truth and burst our bubbles?

 

[placeholder10391]

FF PLayoffs...Week 14: 4 carries, 10 yards, 0 TDs.Week 15: 21 carries, 174 yards, 2 TDs.Week 16 Championship: 11 carries, 30 yards, 0 TDs.You might want someone a wee bit more consistant in the 2nd round.Colin

Yeah, those are terrible stats. A monster game when given 21 carries, and no stats when given no carries. What an inconsistent bum. Ok, now that Dillon is gone, lets average those numbers, assume 21 carries in each game, and see how the numbers pan out...Week 14: 21 carries, 123 yards, 1+ TDs. (+ whatever receiving stats)Week 15: 21 carries, 123 yards, 1+ TDs. (+ whatever receiving stats)Week 16: 21 carries, 123 yards, 1+ TDs. (+ whatever receiving stats)Sign me up.

 

[placeholder10391]

Says the guy who A) didnt know much about a top 15 Rb, or B) plays in a league that has guys in it which value Charles Rogers over Rudi Johnson.

Wow, that's original, the old "my league is better than yours"*golf clap* It's only an 8-team league among close friends. The guy who made the trade has a stockpile of RBs and is has been madly in love with Rogers. I certainly couldn't turn it down.And FYI, I know enough about Rudi, but I never paid a ton of attention since a) I never owned him and b) never thought about trading for him.Thanks for the helpful insight though.

 

[Synthesizer]

It's tough to get THAT excited about a guy when his own team isn't even that excited about him. If the Bengals were sold on him, they would have given him a contract and/or not drafted Chris Perry.

 

[placeholder10391]

It's tough to get THAT excited about a guy when his own team isn't even that excited about him. If the Bengals were sold on him, they would have given him a contract and/or not drafted Chris Perry.

I agree completely. This is the one reason I had not valued him very high. Just wondering whether there was something else I was missing, because the numbers sure are nice.

 

[babydemon90]

Looking at his rushing stats from last year, I see 9 games UNDER the 4.0 YPC benchmark. 4 games OVER. I'm guessing we'll see the same again this coming year...but an extra year experience, taking the reps as the starter from day one, etc.. will help him improve. I doubt anyone is expecting him to be the next Faulk or Holmes...but solid numbers from him in the RB10-15 range as an RB2 is what most are hoping for. PLUS - several games he did VERY well...so he has the ability to put up big numbers against NFL defenses.

4 Sep 28 @ CLE W 21-14 15 51 3.4 UNDER

5 Oct 5 @ BUF L 16-22 20 69 3.5 UNDER

7 Oct 19 BAL W 34-26 3 5 1.7 UNDER

8 Oct 26 SEA W 27-24 27 101 3.7 UNDER

9 Nov 2 @ ARI L 14-17 8 34 4.3 OVER

10 Nov 9 HOU W 34-27 43 182 4.2 OVER

11 Nov 16 KAN W 24-19 22 165 7.5 OVER

12 Nov 23 @ SDG W 34-27 17 55 3.2 UNDER

13 Nov 30 @ PIT W 24-20 10 29 2.9 UNDER

14 Dec 7 @ BAL L 13-31 4 10 2.5 UNDER

15 Dec 14 SFO W 41-38 21 174 8.3 OVER

16 Dec 21 @ STL L 10-27 11 30 2.7 UNDER

17 Dec 28 CLE L 14-22 14 52 3.7 UNDER

 

[zoonation]

For those drafting early (top four) I think Rudy could be a great risk/reward/upside pick to pair up with padre, LT2, Deuce or Ahman. Two things make Rudy a decent RB#2 risk IMO. First, if you've seen him play he is a baller; above average talent IMO. Second, I believe Palmer is going to struggle and Cinci will be handing it off to Rudy at least 21 times a game. Colin, those stats with few carries means jack squat for the upcoming season. What were you extrapolating from that? Some games the feature back will touch the ball about a handfull of times? Hardly.Finally, Perry is not going to come in and steal carries unless Rudi underperforms significantly, which I doubt will happen. So he doesn't have monster games against the Ravens...who does?Mid to second round is the type of pick that could help win your league, I like it.(assuming the incredibly undervalued Travis Henry isn't still around...)

 

[GoRaiders]

Did you see the part where a great number of his games were under 4 ypc? 

Colin

Nope, but do I care? If the bottom line is that over 200+ carries he averaged 4.5 yards per carry, that is fine with me.

Did he have under 4 in some games? Sweet, that means he had over 5 in others ...

FF PLayoffs...Week 14: 4 carries, 10 yards, 0 TDs.

Week 15: 21 carries, 174 yards, 2 TDs.

Week 16 Championship: 11 carries, 30 yards, 0 TDs.

You might want someone a wee bit more consistant in the 2nd round.

Colin

Wow, what a great sample size. 1 year, 3 games. You heard it here first from Colin, Rudi will be horrible for you this year come playoffs, since he sucked in 2 out of the 3 playoff games last year. This definitely proves Rudi is not consistent......

 

[coolbeans59]

It's tough to get THAT excited about a guy when his own team isn't even that excited about him. If the Bengals were sold on him, they would have given him a contract and/or not drafted Chris Perry.

I said this in the Chris Perry dynasty thread

 

[Footballhead]

It's tough to get THAT excited about a guy when his own team isn't even that excited about him. If the Bengals were sold on him, they would have given him a contract and/or not drafted Chris Perry.

For the umptenth time, The Bengals didn't sign him to a new contract because they hardly have cap space to sign all their rookies. Worst come worst, Rudi does extremely well and the Bengals can put a transition tag on him so that they get something out of him if he performs well this year.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Did you see the part where a great number of his games were under 4 ypc? 

Colin

Nope, but do I care? If the bottom line is that over 200+ carries he averaged 4.5 yards per carry, that is fine with me.

Did he have under 4 in some games? Sweet, that means he had over 5 in others ...

FF PLayoffs...Week 14: 4 carries, 10 yards, 0 TDs.

Week 15: 21 carries, 174 yards, 2 TDs.

Week 16 Championship: 11 carries, 30 yards, 0 TDs.

You might want someone a wee bit more consistant in the 2nd round.

Colin

Wow, what a great sample size. 1 year, 3 games. You heard it here first from Colin, Rudi will be horrible for you this year come playoffs, since he sucked in 2 out of the 3 playoff games last year. This definitely proves Rudi is not consistent......

Thanks for being constructive. I gave a small sample size because that's all that was needed to prove my point. However, since it concerns you so much, I'll draw it out a bit for you...Week 4: 15/51/0

Week 5: 20/69/1

Week 7: 3/5/0

Week 8: 27/101/1

Week 9: 8/34/1

Week 10: 43/182/2

Week 11: 22/165/0

Week 12: 17/55/0

Week 13: 10/29/0

Week 14: 4/10/0

Week 15: 21/174/2

Week 16: 11/30/0

Week 17: 14/52/2

By my tally, he had 2 GREAT games (10,15) 2 Very Good games (17,11), 1 decent game (5) and 7 where he would have been a wasted start. So, he was useful 5 out of 12 times, or just under 50%. If you want to spend an early-mid second rounder on that kind of production, go ahead.

Colin

 

[Footballhead]

Colin, why not include which game he started, which he splitted time with Dillon, which game the Bengals were behind and needed to catchup etc. Not critizing you, but I beleive there's more to what you're presenting here. I'll look at it too when I get back home.

 

[FFFIEND]

For those drafting early (top four) I think Rudy could be a great risk/reward/upside pick to pair up with padre, LT2, Deuce or Ahman. Two things make Rudy a decent RB#2 risk IMO. First, if you've seen him play he is a baller; above average talent IMO. Second, I believe Palmer is going to struggle and Cinci will be handing it off to Rudy at least 21 times a game. Colin, those stats with few carries means jack squat for the upcoming season. What were you extrapolating from that? Some games the feature back will touch the ball about a handfull of times? Hardly.Finally, Perry is not going to come in and steal carries unless Rudi underperforms significantly, which I doubt will happen. So he doesn't have monster games against the Ravens...who does?Mid to second round is the type of pick that could help win your league, I like it.(assuming the incredibly undervalued Travis Henry isn't still around...)

I am going to second the idea that Rudi Johnson is a good #2 RB for the guys drafting at the top of the order. The good news is that many people don't like Rudi, so you can MAYBE slide him out to the early third and scoop a #1WR in the second. Just be prepared to pay the price if the guys at the end of the draft like Rudi a little more than you thought.

 

[shadyridr]

Did you see the part where a great number of his games were under 4 ypc? 

Colin

Nope, but do I care? If the bottom line is that over 200+ carries he averaged 4.5 yards per carry, that is fine with me.

Did he have under 4 in some games? Sweet, that means he had over 5 in others ...

FF PLayoffs...Week 14: 4 carries, 10 yards, 0 TDs.

Week 15: 21 carries, 174 yards, 2 TDs.

Week 16 Championship: 11 carries, 30 yards, 0 TDs.

You might want someone a wee bit more consistant in the 2nd round.

Colin

Wow, what a great sample size. 1 year, 3 games. You heard it here first from Colin, Rudi will be horrible for you this year come playoffs, since he sucked in 2 out of the 3 playoff games last year. This definitely proves Rudi is not consistent......

Thanks for being constructive. I gave a small sample size because that's all that was needed to prove my point. However, since it concerns you so much, I'll draw it out a bit for you...Week 4: 15/51/0

Week 5: 20/69/1

Week 7: 3/5/0

Week 8: 27/101/1

Week 9: 8/34/1

Week 10: 43/182/2

Week 11: 22/165/0

Week 12: 17/55/0

Week 13: 10/29/0

Week 14: 4/10/0

Week 15: 21/174/2

Week 16: 11/30/0

Week 17: 14/52/2

By my tally, he had 2 GREAT games (10,15) 2 Very Good games (17,11), 1 decent game (5) and 7 where he would have been a wasted start. So, he was useful 5 out of 12 times, or just under 50%. If you want to spend an early-mid second rounder on that kind of production, go ahead.

Colin

And the fact that Corey Dillon was sharing carries with him for some of those games has nothing to do with it?

 

[Chase Stuart]

Simply put, all the evidence I see suggests that Cincinnati does not feel that Rudi is noticeably better than Perry.There was a tremendous amount of defensive talent that slipped in the draft...yet the Bengals didn't trade up for it.The Bengals D is awful--they tried to sign any name FA they could.They passed on some good D players with their pick.They took RudiEvery pick after that was D.I like Perry a lot this year.

 

[placeholder10391]

Did you see the part where a great number of his games were under 4 ypc? 

Colin

Nope, but do I care? If the bottom line is that over 200+ carries he averaged 4.5 yards per carry, that is fine with me.

Did he have under 4 in some games? Sweet, that means he had over 5 in others ...

FF PLayoffs...Week 14: 4 carries, 10 yards, 0 TDs.

Week 15: 21 carries, 174 yards, 2 TDs.

Week 16 Championship: 11 carries, 30 yards, 0 TDs.

You might want someone a wee bit more consistant in the 2nd round.

Colin

Wow, what a great sample size. 1 year, 3 games. You heard it here first from Colin, Rudi will be horrible for you this year come playoffs, since he sucked in 2 out of the 3 playoff games last year. This definitely proves Rudi is not consistent......

Thanks for being constructive. I gave a small sample size because that's all that was needed to prove my point. However, since it concerns you so much, I'll draw it out a bit for you...Week 4: 15/51/0

Week 5: 20/69/1

Week 7: 3/5/0

Week 8: 27/101/1

Week 9: 8/34/1

Week 10: 43/182/2

Week 11: 22/165/0

Week 12: 17/55/0

Week 13: 10/29/0

Week 14: 4/10/0

Week 15: 21/174/2

Week 16: 11/30/0

Week 17: 14/52/2

By my tally, he had 2 GREAT games (10,15) 2 Very Good games (17,11), 1 decent game (5) and 7 where he would have been a wasted start. So, he was useful 5 out of 12 times, or just under 50%. If you want to spend an early-mid second rounder on that kind of production, go ahead.

Colin

And the fact that Corey Dillon was sharing carries with him for some of those games has nothing to do with it?

Seriously.This could be the most absurd statistical breakdown I have ever seen.

By my tally, he had 2 GREAT games (10,15) 2 Very Good games (17,11), 1 decent game (5) and 7 where he would have been a wasted start

How bout of that 7 games we take out the three where he had single-digit numbers of carries. And then let's remove a couple more where he had 10 or 11 carries.Then he'll have had, what, 3 bad games?

What a Bum!

 

[Colin Dowling]

Did you see the part where a great number of his games were under 4 ypc? 

Colin

Nope, but do I care? If the bottom line is that over 200+ carries he averaged 4.5 yards per carry, that is fine with me.

Did he have under 4 in some games? Sweet, that means he had over 5 in others ...

FF PLayoffs...Week 14: 4 carries, 10 yards, 0 TDs.

Week 15: 21 carries, 174 yards, 2 TDs.

Week 16 Championship: 11 carries, 30 yards, 0 TDs.

You might want someone a wee bit more consistant in the 2nd round.

Colin

Wow, what a great sample size. 1 year, 3 games. You heard it here first from Colin, Rudi will be horrible for you this year come playoffs, since he sucked in 2 out of the 3 playoff games last year. This definitely proves Rudi is not consistent......

Thanks for being constructive. I gave a small sample size because that's all that was needed to prove my point. However, since it concerns you so much, I'll draw it out a bit for you...Week 4: 15/51/0

Week 5: 20/69/1

Week 7: 3/5/0

Week 8: 27/101/1

Week 9: 8/34/1

Week 10: 43/182/2

Week 11: 22/165/0

Week 12: 17/55/0

Week 13: 10/29/0

Week 14: 4/10/0

Week 15: 21/174/2

Week 16: 11/30/0

Week 17: 14/52/2

By my tally, he had 2 GREAT games (10,15) 2 Very Good games (17,11), 1 decent game (5) and 7 where he would have been a wasted start. So, he was useful 5 out of 12 times, or just under 50%. If you want to spend an early-mid second rounder on that kind of production, go ahead.

Colin

And the fact that Corey Dillon was sharing carries with him for some of those games has nothing to do with it?

Seriously.This could be the most absurd statistical breakdown I have ever seen.

By my tally, he had 2 GREAT games (10,15) 2 Very Good games (17,11), 1 decent game (5) and 7 where he would have been a wasted start

How bout of that 7 games we take out the three where he had single-digit numbers of carries. And then let's remove a couple more where he had 10 or 11 carries.Then he'll have had, what, 3 bad games?

What a Bum!

FlaVVed.Fantasy owners were starting him for those games. When he went nuts in week 9 and 10, people started jhim in week 11 and got screwed. Then, they shrugged it off as one bad game and started him again in week 12. And got screwed again. Ditto week 13 and 14. There's nothing remotely absurd about pointing out when a guy is useful.

Its not that I dislike Rudi. I just think people need to back up a bit when evaluating him. THe fact that Corey Dillon is gone DOES NOT make Rudi a top-notch RB. Consider...

Corey Dillon returned from injury twice, and was rewarded with being the starter both times. Ditto that for the week after he lashed out at the organization and the coach. THen, the team spends a first round pick on a durable runner with pass-catching ability. Now, how does anyone, fan od Rudi or not, explain such behavior from Marvin and Co.?

Colin

 

[GoRaiders]

Did you see the part where a great number of his games were under 4 ypc? 

Colin

Nope, but do I care? If the bottom line is that over 200+ carries he averaged 4.5 yards per carry, that is fine with me.

Did he have under 4 in some games? Sweet, that means he had over 5 in others ...

FF PLayoffs...Week 14: 4 carries, 10 yards, 0 TDs.

Week 15: 21 carries, 174 yards, 2 TDs.

Week 16 Championship: 11 carries, 30 yards, 0 TDs.

You might want someone a wee bit more consistant in the 2nd round.

Colin

Wow, what a great sample size. 1 year, 3 games. You heard it here first from Colin, Rudi will be horrible for you this year come playoffs, since he sucked in 2 out of the 3 playoff games last year. This definitely proves Rudi is not consistent......

Thanks for being constructive. I gave a small sample size because that's all that was needed to prove my point. However, since it concerns you so much, I'll draw it out a bit for you...Week 4: 15/51/0

Week 5: 20/69/1

Week 7: 3/5/0

Week 8: 27/101/1

Week 9: 8/34/1

Week 10: 43/182/2

Week 11: 22/165/0

Week 12: 17/55/0

Week 13: 10/29/0

Week 14: 4/10/0

Week 15: 21/174/2

Week 16: 11/30/0

Week 17: 14/52/2

By my tally, he had 2 GREAT games (10,15) 2 Very Good games (17,11), 1 decent game (5) and 7 where he would have been a wasted start. So, he was useful 5 out of 12 times, or just under 50%. If you want to spend an early-mid second rounder on that kind of production, go ahead.

Colin

And the fact that Corey Dillon was sharing carries with him for some of those games has nothing to do with it?

Seriously.This could be the most absurd statistical breakdown I have ever seen.

Absurd does not even begin to describe this analysis......... if you really want to call it that!

 

[beef]

Did you see the part where a great number of his games were under 4 ypc? Colin

So he's like Travis Henry then.

 

[BlackHole]

Did you see the part where a great number of his games were under 4 ypc? 

Colin

Nope, but do I care? If the bottom line is that over 200+ carries he averaged 4.5 yards per carry, that is fine with me.

Did he have under 4 in some games? Sweet, that means he had over 5 in others ...

FF PLayoffs...Week 14: 4 carries, 10 yards, 0 TDs.

Week 15: 21 carries, 174 yards, 2 TDs.

Week 16 Championship: 11 carries, 30 yards, 0 TDs.

You might want someone a wee bit more consistant in the 2nd round.

Colin

Wow, what a great sample size. 1 year, 3 games. You heard it here first from Colin, Rudi will be horrible for you this year come playoffs, since he sucked in 2 out of the 3 playoff games last year. This definitely proves Rudi is not consistent......

Thanks for being constructive. I gave a small sample size because that's all that was needed to prove my point. However, since it concerns you so much, I'll draw it out a bit for you...Week 4: 15/51/0

Week 5: 20/69/1

Week 7: 3/5/0

Week 8: 27/101/1

Week 9: 8/34/1

Week 10: 43/182/2

Week 11: 22/165/0

Week 12: 17/55/0

Week 13: 10/29/0

Week 14: 4/10/0

Week 15: 21/174/2

Week 16: 11/30/0

Week 17: 14/52/2

By my tally, he had 2 GREAT games (10,15) 2 Very Good games (17,11), 1 decent game (5) and 7 where he would have been a wasted start. So, he was useful 5 out of 12 times, or just under 50%. If you want to spend an early-mid second rounder on that kind of production, go ahead.

Colin

So you're showing us every time he gets the ball 20 or more times he is good for over 100 yards? Except for once, but he did get 69yds and a TD that 1, repeat ONE game with 20+ touches that he failed to surpass 100yds. Keep this up Colin and you'll be making all of us want Rudi for a 2nd RB now.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Did you see the part where a great number of his games were under 4 ypc? Colin

So he's like Travis Henry then.

When Rudi gets 330 carries and catches 40 balls, we can talk. Until then...Colin

 

[shadyridr]

Did you see the part where a great number of his games were under 4 ypc? 

Colin

Nope, but do I care? If the bottom line is that over 200+ carries he averaged 4.5 yards per carry, that is fine with me.

Did he have under 4 in some games? Sweet, that means he had over 5 in others ...

FF PLayoffs...Week 14: 4 carries, 10 yards, 0 TDs.

Week 15: 21 carries, 174 yards, 2 TDs.

Week 16 Championship: 11 carries, 30 yards, 0 TDs.

You might want someone a wee bit more consistant in the 2nd round.

Colin

Wow, what a great sample size. 1 year, 3 games. You heard it here first from Colin, Rudi will be horrible for you this year come playoffs, since he sucked in 2 out of the 3 playoff games last year. This definitely proves Rudi is not consistent......

Thanks for being constructive. I gave a small sample size because that's all that was needed to prove my point. However, since it concerns you so much, I'll draw it out a bit for you...Week 4: 15/51/0

Week 5: 20/69/1

Week 7: 3/5/0

Week 8: 27/101/1

Week 9: 8/34/1

Week 10: 43/182/2

Week 11: 22/165/0

Week 12: 17/55/0

Week 13: 10/29/0

Week 14: 4/10/0

Week 15: 21/174/2

Week 16: 11/30/0

Week 17: 14/52/2

By my tally, he had 2 GREAT games (10,15) 2 Very Good games (17,11), 1 decent game (5) and 7 where he would have been a wasted start. So, he was useful 5 out of 12 times, or just under 50%. If you want to spend an early-mid second rounder on that kind of production, go ahead.

Colin

And the fact that Corey Dillon was sharing carries with him for some of those games has nothing to do with it?

Seriously.This could be the most absurd statistical breakdown I have ever seen.

By my tally, he had 2 GREAT games (10,15) 2 Very Good games (17,11), 1 decent game (5) and 7 where he would have been a wasted start

How bout of that 7 games we take out the three where he had single-digit numbers of carries. And then let's remove a couple more where he had 10 or 11 carries.Then he'll have had, what, 3 bad games?

What a Bum!

FlaVVed.Fantasy owners were starting him for those games. When he went nuts in week 9 and 10, people started jhim in week 11 and got screwed. Then, they shrugged it off as one bad game and started him again in week 12. And got screwed again. Ditto week 13 and 14. There's nothing remotely absurd about pointing out when a guy is useful.

Its not that I dislike Rudi. I just think people need to back up a bit when evaluating him. THe fact that Corey Dillon is gone DOES NOT make Rudi a top-notch RB. Consider...

Corey Dillon returned from injury twice, and was rewarded with being the starter both times. Ditto that for the week after he lashed out at the organization and the coach. THen, the team spends a first round pick on a durable runner with pass-catching ability. Now, how does anyone, fan od Rudi or not, explain such behavior from Marvin and Co.?

Colin

Previous teams that drafted 1st round RBs:BUF- McGahee

KC- Johnson

STL- Canidate

I think we've learned that drafting a RB in the 1st round does not mean the team does not like the current starter.

 

[shadyridr]

FlaVVed.Fantasy owners were starting him for those games. When he went nuts in week 9 and 10, people started jhim in week 11 and got screwed. Then, they shrugged it off as one bad game and started him again in week 12. And got screwed again. Ditto week 13 and 14. There's nothing remotely absurd about pointing out when a guy is useful.Its not that I dislike Rudi. I just think people need to back up a bit when evaluating him. THe fact that Corey Dillon is gone DOES NOT make Rudi a top-notch RB. Consider...Corey Dillon returned from injury twice, and was rewarded with being the starter both times. Ditto that for the week after he lashed out at the organization and the coach. THen, the team spends a first round pick on a durable runner with pass-catching ability. Now, how does anyone, fan od Rudi or not, explain such behavior from Marvin and Co.?Colin

So because some Fantasy Owners got hurt by starting him last year due to the Dillon situation we should downgrade him this year?

 

[Colin Dowling]

So you're showing us every time he gets the ball 20 or more times he is good for over 100 yards? Except for once, but he did get 69yds and a TD that 1, repeat ONE game with 20+ touches that he failed to surpass 100yds.

20 carries a game over the course of a season is 320 carries. 9 backs did that last season. Only 13 had more than 300. If you're using "When Rudi gets over 20 carries, he's golden!" as you're measuring stick, I'd advise you to be cautious. Colin

 

[Colin Dowling]

Did you see the part where a great number of his games were under 4 ypc? 

Colin

Nope, but do I care? If the bottom line is that over 200+ carries he averaged 4.5 yards per carry, that is fine with me.

Did he have under 4 in some games? Sweet, that means he had over 5 in others ...

FF PLayoffs...Week 14: 4 carries, 10 yards, 0 TDs.

Week 15: 21 carries, 174 yards, 2 TDs.

Week 16 Championship: 11 carries, 30 yards, 0 TDs.

You might want someone a wee bit more consistant in the 2nd round.

Colin

Wow, what a great sample size. 1 year, 3 games. You heard it here first from Colin, Rudi will be horrible for you this year come playoffs, since he sucked in 2 out of the 3 playoff games last year. This definitely proves Rudi is not consistent......

Thanks for being constructive. I gave a small sample size because that's all that was needed to prove my point. However, since it concerns you so much, I'll draw it out a bit for you...Week 4: 15/51/0

Week 5: 20/69/1

Week 7: 3/5/0

Week 8: 27/101/1

Week 9: 8/34/1

Week 10: 43/182/2

Week 11: 22/165/0

Week 12: 17/55/0

Week 13: 10/29/0

Week 14: 4/10/0

Week 15: 21/174/2

Week 16: 11/30/0

Week 17: 14/52/2

By my tally, he had 2 GREAT games (10,15) 2 Very Good games (17,11), 1 decent game (5) and 7 where he would have been a wasted start. So, he was useful 5 out of 12 times, or just under 50%. If you want to spend an early-mid second rounder on that kind of production, go ahead.

Colin

And the fact that Corey Dillon was sharing carries with him for some of those games has nothing to do with it?

Seriously.This could be the most absurd statistical breakdown I have ever seen.

By my tally, he had 2 GREAT games (10,15) 2 Very Good games (17,11), 1 decent game (5) and 7 where he would have been a wasted start

How bout of that 7 games we take out the three where he had single-digit numbers of carries. And then let's remove a couple more where he had 10 or 11 carries.Then he'll have had, what, 3 bad games?

What a Bum!

FlaVVed.Fantasy owners were starting him for those games. When he went nuts in week 9 and 10, people started jhim in week 11 and got screwed. Then, they shrugged it off as one bad game and started him again in week 12. And got screwed again. Ditto week 13 and 14. There's nothing remotely absurd about pointing out when a guy is useful.

Its not that I dislike Rudi. I just think people need to back up a bit when evaluating him. THe fact that Corey Dillon is gone DOES NOT make Rudi a top-notch RB. Consider...

Corey Dillon returned from injury twice, and was rewarded with being the starter both times. Ditto that for the week after he lashed out at the organization and the coach. THen, the team spends a first round pick on a durable runner with pass-catching ability. Now, how does anyone, fan od Rudi or not, explain such behavior from Marvin and Co.?

Colin

Previous teams that drafted 1st round RBs:BUF- McGahee

KC- Johnson

STL- Canidate

I think we've learned that drafting a RB in the 1st round does not mean the team does not like the current starter.

Larry Johnson was drafted during a contract dispute with the most productive RB of the previous year.Willis McGahee would have been a top-3 pick barring injury. The Bills took the "best player available" to back up a top-15 running back they had. Its worth mentioning that such a selection, bypassing other areas of need, ultimately helped cost the HC his job.

Trung Candidate was a personel decision granted to Mike Martz, who desired more speed on his Super Bowl Champion, record-setting offense.

I don't think any of the situations are that similar. THe Bengals are a young, and growing team. Rudi Johnson had a good season last year. He no doubt has a bright future. I just happen to think his Redraft ADP is not justified.

Colin

 

[placeholder10391]

This could be the most absurd statistical breakdown I have ever seen.

By my tally, he had 2 GREAT games (10,15) 2 Very Good games (17,11), 1 decent game (5) and 7 where he would have been a wasted start

How bout of that 7 games we take out the three where he had single-digit numbers of carries. And then let's remove a couple more where he had 10 or 11 carries.Then he'll have had, what, 3 bad games?

What a Bum!

FlaVVed.Fantasy owners were starting him for those games. When he went nuts in week 9 and 10, people started jhim in week 11 and got screwed. Then, they shrugged it off as one bad game and started him again in week 12. And got screwed again. Ditto week 13 and 14. There's nothing remotely absurd about pointing out when a guy is useful.

Its not that I dislike Rudi. I just think people need to back up a bit when evaluating him. THe fact that Corey Dillon is gone DOES NOT make Rudi a top-notch RB. Consider...

Corey Dillon returned from injury twice, and was rewarded with being the starter both times. Ditto that for the week after he lashed out at the organization and the coach. THen, the team spends a first round pick on a durable runner with pass-catching ability. Now, how does anyone, fan od Rudi or not, explain such behavior from Marvin and Co.?

Colin

Well in that case, I guess it's a good thing we won't be drafting Rudi Johnson to start him LAST YEAR.I thought we were trying to figure out what his value would be THIS year?

People got burned last year because Dillon was still in town. Is that a reason to downgrade Rudi Johnson this year?

 

[Colin Dowling]

FlaVVed.Fantasy owners were starting him for those games. When he went nuts in week 9 and 10, people started jhim in week 11 and got screwed. Then, they shrugged it off as one bad game and started him again in week 12. And got screwed again. Ditto week 13 and 14. There's nothing remotely absurd about pointing out when a guy is useful.Its not that I dislike Rudi. I just think people need to back up a bit when evaluating him. THe fact that Corey Dillon is gone DOES NOT make Rudi a top-notch RB. Consider...Corey Dillon returned from injury twice, and was rewarded with being the starter both times. Ditto that for the week after he lashed out at the organization and the coach. THen, the team spends a first round pick on a durable runner with pass-catching ability. Now, how does anyone, fan od Rudi or not, explain such behavior from Marvin and Co.?Colin

So because some Fantasy Owners got hurt by starting him last year due to the Dillon situation we should downgrade him this year?

No. Not at all. They should simply be aware that Rudi's prodction in 2003 was not as consistant as some of the guys being heralded in the same portion of the draft.I'm not trying to disuade or piss-off Rudi fans. I'm trying to help people realize that between picks 13 and 18, where Rudi is likely to be selected, a number of the guys around him have either "been there before" (Henry, Barber, Dillon, Davis) or have shown a bit more consistancy from game to game (DDavis).Colin

 

[beef]

Did you see the part where a great number of his games were under 4 ypc?  Colin

So he's like Travis Henry then.

When Rudi gets 330 carries and catches 40 balls, we can talk. Until then...Colin

Henry only had 40 catches and 330 carries once in his career and they didn't even come in the same year. Way to change the subject again like you do so many times. Comparing Henry's games under 4 ypc to Rudi's games under 4 ypc than you thrown out receptions. You never did show up again in the last Rudi thread where I pointed it out to you Rudi does a good job cathing the passes thrown his way. He did have the best reception to target % for all RB's with a minimum of 20 receptions last year.

 

[Colin Dowling]

Well in that case, I guess it's a good thing we won't be drafting Rudi Johnson to start him LAST YEAR.I thought we were trying to figure out what his value would be THIS year?People got burned last year because Dillon was still in town. Is that a reason to downgrade Rudi Johnson this year?

I'd be interested in seeing your Chris Perry projections....Colin

 

[placeholder10391]

Larry Johnson was drafted during a contract dispute with the most productive RB of the previous year.Willis McGahee would have been a top-3 pick barring injury. The Bills took the "best player available" to back up a top-15 running back they had. Its worth mentioning that such a selection, bypassing other areas of need, ultimately helped cost the HC his job.Trung Candidate was a personel decision granted to Mike Martz, who desired more speed on his Super Bowl Champion, record-setting offense.I don't think any of the situations are that similar. THe Bengals are a young, and growing team. Rudi Johnson had a good season last year. He no doubt has a bright future. I just happen to think his Redraft ADP is not justified.Colin

Who cares whose decision it was or what coach lost his job afterwards. The point was that drafting a RB in the first round doesn't necessarily mean lack of faith in the incumbent, and based on those examples, certainly does not mean a falloff in fantasy production for the incumbent.I don't know what Rudi's ADP is, but I think FBG Experts have him ranked somewhere around the 17th RB, and it seems to me, based on last year's numbers, that he may be a super value pick at 17.

 

[placeholder10391]

I'm trying to help people realize that between picks 13 and 18, where Rudi is likely to be selected, a number of the guys around him have either "been there before" (Henry, Barber, Dillon, Davis) or have shown a bit more consistancy from game to game (DDavis).

Have you looked at DDavis' numbers? Look again. He put up quite a few clunkers last year (and by clunkers, I don't mean games where he had only 4 carries, the way you were trying to spin it - I mean games where he had 20+ carries and still bombed).Maybe this is bold but I have no problem projecting that Rudi Johnson has a better season than Dom Davis this year.As for your question about my projections for Chris Perry this coming season - I think Perry is the only wild card in this situation. You have been pointing to last year's stats to try and cast dout and Rudi, and it's just a poor argument. I have maintained that the Perry thing is a concern in my mind, but others have come back with fairly strong arguments as to why Perry may have little impact if any on Rudi.But if you are trying to support some notion that Rudi is overvalued, last year's numbers are not going to help you...

 

[Colin Dowling]

Way to change the subject again like you do so many times. Comparing Henry's games under 4 ypc to Rudi's games under 4 ypc than you thrown out receptions.

What are you talking about? Checking my numbers, you're right. Let me rephrase: When Rudi has 325 carries and 40 receptions in a season, then we'll talk. You want to talk about Henry's games under 4ypc? Ok...Week 1: 27 carries, 87 yards, 2 TDs. Week 2: 21 carries, 26 yards, 3 TDs.Week 3: 5 carries, 7 yards, InjuryWeek 5: 25 carries, 85 yards, 1 TD.Week 6: 18 carries, 53 yards.Week 10: 21 carries, 80 yards.Week 12: 22 carries, 77 yards.Week 15: 19 carries, 88 yards.Week 16: 24 carries, 67 yards.So, in Henry's SUb 4.0 games, not counting receptions, he had 182 carries, 570 yards, and 6 TDs. IN other words, he averaged 20.2 carries, 63 yards, and 2/3 of a TD per contest.Those are STILL useful numbers. He had two true stinkers in terms of yards. IN one, he was hurt. IN the other, he scored 3 TDs.Colin

 

[TME]

The Bengals generated about 2,000 yards of rushing offense last year - 13th in the league. Assuming Carson can at least hold the line in the passing game, I expect a similarly productive Bengals offense this year.If Rudi only gets 65% of that total productivity, that's 1,300 rushing yards. Frankly, with their current roster of backs, I would not be surprised to see him get upwards of 75% of that productivity, that's 1,500 rushing yards, leaving about 400 for Perry and 100 in scraps for Hicks and company.Add on a few hundred yards receiving and double digit total TDs and you have a great back that's generally going in the mid to late 2nd round.Great value.

 

[moderated]

it seems to me, based on last year's numbers, that he may be a super value pick at 17.

Then pick him around that range and pat yourself on the back. Go with what you think.No matter how you slice it Rudi is a risky pick, how risky is where people are having trouble agreeing.Personally I don't like Rudi based on where he is getting picked.1)one good year after sitting #3 on the depth chart for the 2 years prior2)Why spend a #1 draft pick on Perry if the Bengals already felt they had a young stud franchise RB. Insurance? Maybe, but it is a red-flag.3)Many poor games surrounded by some very good games (which were mostly at home and against poor run defenses).Rudi may very well pan out to become a top 15 RB, but he could also easily turn out to be a one year wonder who flops miserably. I'll be letting someone else take him in the 2nd round this year while I make the "rookie" mistake and take a more surefire WR (Holt, Harrison) or QB (C-Pepp, Manning).I hate the late 2nd round RB's this year as I think they are more risky than in years past.

 

[bueno]

I'm projectioning 320 carries, 1250 yards and 6 rushing TDs for Rudi. He'll get some passes thrown his way (2-3/game).Decent mid- to Late second round pick. Probably no up-side to that projection. Big downside if he splts carries with the rookie.

 

[Patoons]

I'm trying to help people realize that between picks 13 and 18, where Rudi is likely to be selected, a number of the guys around him have either "been there before" (Henry, Barber, Dillon, Davis) or have shown a bit more consistancy from game to game (DDavis).

Have you looked at DDavis' numbers? Look again. He put up quite a few clunkers last year (and by clunkers, I don't mean games where he had only 4 carries, the way you were trying to spin it - I mean games where he had 20+ carries and still bombed).Maybe this is bold but I have no problem projecting that Rudi Johnson has a better season than Dom Davis this year.As for your question about my projections for Chris Perry this coming season - I think Perry is the only wild card in this situation. You have been pointing to last year's stats to try and cast dout and Rudi, and it's just a poor argument. I have maintained that the Perry thing is a concern in my mind, but others have come back with fairly strong arguments as to why Perry may have little impact if any on Rudi.But if you are trying to support some notion that Rudi is overvalued, last year's numbers are not going to help you...

Otis,I don't agree with this point on DDavis "clunkers" since those games were against two teams with solid run defenses last year in Buffalo and New England. Rudi didnt do that great against Buffalo four weeks before with 20 carries for 69 yds. A little better than DD, but not much- he was 28-68yds.Performance wise, these and the fact that Rudi BUSTED out with a few huge games are the only differences. The concern with DDavis is that he had some injury problems last year and had troubles in the red-zone at times punching it in.IMO both are risks, it's a question of which you want to take a gamble on.

 

[salmonstud]

I recently traded for Rudi Johnson in my dynasty league (traded Charles Rogers) without knowing a whole lot about him, other than that he and Barlow and Dom Davis are the hot new RB prospects coming into this season.I remember Rudi having some awesome games

I don't care if I have 10 starting RB's on my team, no way in H### do I trade Rudi (typically a late 2nd round or early 3rd round pick) for C.Rogers (typically a 6th round pick). Did you have to include your Cabbage Patch Doll Collection in the trade?

 

[placeholder10391]

it seems to me, based on last year's numbers, that he may be a super value pick at 17.

Then pick him around that range and pat yourself on the back. Go with what you think.No matter how you slice it Rudi is a risky pick, how risky is where people are having trouble agreeing.

Personally I don't like Rudi based on where he is getting picked.

1)one good year after sitting #3 on the depth chart for the 2 years prior

2)Why spend a #1 draft pick on Perry if the Bengals already felt they had a young stud franchise RB. Insurance? Maybe, but it is a red-flag.

3)Many poor games surrounded by some very good games (which were mostly at home and against poor run defenses).

Rudi may very well pan out to become a top 15 RB, but he could also easily turn out to be a one year wonder who flops miserably. I'll be letting someone else take him in the 2nd round this year while I make the "rookie" mistake and take a more surefire WR (Holt, Harrison) or QB (C-Pepp, Manning).

I hate the late 2nd round RB's this year as I think they are more risky than in years past.

This is exactly the problem with this thread. Will someone please show me all these poor games? So far, Colin has pointed out "poor" games where Rudi had 4 touches, 10 touches, etc. Unless you know of some RB that I am unaware of and who is averaging 25 ypc, I don't see how you can call these poor games.

FACTS PLEASE!

Patoons, I definitely agree with your point that Rudi is a risk, much like Ddavis is, much like Willy Green was last year and A-train was the year before that. I guess the whole point of the thread was all the hype I've seen over Davis and somehow I personally just screwed up and thought that Rudi was so much less valuable. Considering their draft positions and Dom's proclivity to get dinged up, I think Rudi may be the better guy after all. (He had a better YPC and more TDs than DD did to boot)

 

[Colin Dowling]

it seems to me, based on last year's numbers, that he may be a super value pick at 17.

Then pick him around that range and pat yourself on the back. Go with what you think.No matter how you slice it Rudi is a risky pick, how risky is where people are having trouble agreeing.

Personally I don't like Rudi based on where he is getting picked.

1)one good year after sitting #3 on the depth chart for the 2 years prior

2)Why spend a #1 draft pick on Perry if the Bengals already felt they had a young stud franchise RB. Insurance? Maybe, but it is a red-flag.

3)Many poor games surrounded by some very good games (which were mostly at home and against poor run defenses).

Rudi may very well pan out to become a top 15 RB, but he could also easily turn out to be a one year wonder who flops miserably. I'll be letting someone else take him in the 2nd round this year while I make the "rookie" mistake and take a more surefire WR (Holt, Harrison) or QB (C-Pepp, Manning).

I hate the late 2nd round RB's this year as I think they are more risky than in years past.

This is exactly the problem with this thread. Will someone please show me all these poor games? So far, Colin has pointed out "poor" games where Rudi had 4 touches, 10 touches, etc. Unless you know of some RB that I am unaware of and who is averaging 25 ypc, I don't see how you can call these poor games.

FACTS PLEASE!

Patoons, I definitely agree with your point that Rudi is a risk, much like Ddavis is, much like Willy Green was last year and A-train was the year before that. I guess the whole point of the thread was all the hype I've seen over Davis and somehow I personally just screwed up and thought that Rudi was so much less valuable. Considering their draft positions and Dom's proclivity to get dinged up, I think Rudi may be the better guy after all. (He had a better YPC and more TDs than DD did to boot)

You clearly want to like Rudi. I'm done trying to disuade you because the "fun" part of fantasy football is drafting guys you like. Draft him and don't look back.Could I be wrong? Sure, it happens plenty, just like it happens to all of us. However, I am personally unlikely to use a second round pick on any player that...

...gained 11% of his total yardage for the year on 2 carries.

...went 17/55 against San Diego (25th rush D) and 11/30 against St. Louis (21st rush D) and 29/103 against Cleveland (23rd rush D, 2 games).

Colin

 

[Chase Stuart]

The Bengals generated about 2,000 yards of rushing offense last year - 13th in the league. Assuming Carson can at least hold the line in the passing game, I expect a similarly productive Bengals offense this year.If Rudi only gets 65% of that total productivity, that's 1,300 rushing yards. Frankly, with their current roster of backs, I would not be surprised to see him get upwards of 75% of that productivity, that's 1,500 rushing yards, leaving about 400 for Perry and 100 in scraps for Hicks and company.Add on a few hundred yards receiving and double digit total TDs and you have a great back that's generally going in the mid to late 2nd round.Great value.

TME, that analysis is flawed.The Bengals top two RBs last year, generated 1500 rushing yards. I think that's the number you want to be looking at.Whether it's 1200 Rudi/300 Perry or whether Perry gets a lot more is yet to be seen.Sure, Rudi could bust out with 1,600 yards this year--but there's not a ton of evidence to make me consider that likely.

 

[Dancing Bear]

I think that you need to be very careful with how you project Rudi this year, and appropriately set your expectations.Rudi had 5 clunkers out of 6 to close the season. The offense stunk in 3 out of those 6 because of the lack of ability to run. Was it Rudi? Was it the O-Line? Ask yourself, what's changed? What's changed for the better?How can you even speculate without Training Camp and a few Pre-Season battles? With a new unproven Sheriff in town [Palmer]; will he play better than Kitna and allow for a better balanced attack; where the Offense was in-sync most of the time? The whole situation is anybodies guess ...I am not betting that anything good is going to happen here, and I agree with Colin that owner beware. I am betting that the Sheriff gets run out of Dodge. Kitna replaces him before game 5. Until then Rudi, Chad, and everybody else at Cincy is worthless to me.