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This has nothing to do with whether or not I want to like Rudi.For your list of his THREE "bad" games, you included a game where he had 11 carries.So that leaves me with your position being the following: Rudi Johnson is overrated because he had 2 bad games in his first year with significant playing time.
This thread is exhausting.Please show me where those 5 clunkers were. In fact, feel free to post the stats. Let's see how many carries he had during those clunkers. Let's see how many carries Dillon had during those clunkers.
OKay. Clunker 1: Week 12 - Dillon goes for 108 yards on 18 carries (6ypc). On 17 carries (one fewer) Rudi gos for 55 (3.23ypc). CLunker 2: Week 13 - Dillon has 10 carries for 48 yards (4.8 ypc). Rudi has 10 carries for 29 yards (2.9 ypc).Clunker 3: Week 14 - Dillon has 11 for 45 (4 ypc). Rudi has 4 for 10 (2.5 ypc)Clunker 4: week 16 - Dillon has 7 for 37 (5.28 ypc). Rudi has 11 for 30 (2.73ypc)Clunker 5: Week 17 - Dillon has 8 for 50 (6.25ypc). Rudi has 2 TDs, but a not so stellar 14 for 52 (3.71 ypc).Thanks for asking for this comparison. I like Rudi even less now in the 2nd round. Colin
Anyone know the exact situations for each one of rudi's carries in these situations? Ambiguous stats like these don't help much. It seems as if they may have been using Rudi as a possible goalline back and in short yardage situations. If he had two touchdowns in a game and a less than stellar ypc, it seems that they were more or less using him in short yardage and red-zone situations where his ypc didn't have much of a chance to be that great to begin with.OKay. Clunker 1: Week 12 - Dillon goes for 108 yards on 18 carries (6ypc). On 17 carries (one fewer) Rudi gos for 55 (3.23ypc). CLunker 2: Week 13 - Dillon has 10 carries for 48 yards (4.8 ypc). Rudi has 10 carries for 29 yards (2.9 ypc).Clunker 3: Week 14 - Dillon has 11 for 45 (4 ypc). Rudi has 4 for 10 (2.5 ypc)Clunker 4: week 16 - Dillon has 7 for 37 (5.28 ypc). Rudi has 11 for 30 (2.73ypc)Clunker 5: Week 17 - Dillon has 8 for 50 (6.25ypc). Rudi has 2 TDs, but a not so stellar 14 for 52 (3.71 ypc).Thanks for asking for this comparison. I like Rudi even less now in the 2nd round. Colin
Do you have anything constructive to add? TIA.Colin
In this drive, Rudi had 6 carries for 23 yards and 1 reception for 12 yards. This was the only drive where he played consistantly, the entire game. That's a 3.83 ypc mark when he gets a steady amount of carries. If Rudi plays lot consistantly in 2004, as I expect, he should put up better numbers than shown here. Also, note that two of the carries here were in short yardage situations, noting the "3 & 1" and the "2 & goal" at the 2 yard line. -BCCincinnati Bengals at 02:59 1-10-CIN36 (2:59) P.Warrick left end ran ob at CIN 38 for 2 yards (R. Williams). {End around} 2-8-CIN38 (2:35) J.Kitna pass to Ru.Johnson to 50 for 12 yards (E. Little). 1-10-50 (1:51) Ru.Johnson up the middle to CLV 46 for 4 yards (E. Little; Andra Davis). 2-6-CLE46 (1:11) Ru.Johnson left tackle to CLV 41 for 5 yards (Andra Davis). 3-1-CLE4125) J.Kitna pass to T.Stewart to CLV 32 for 9 yards (B. Boyer; K. Bentley). Fourth Quarter Cincinnati Bengals continued... 1-10-CLE32 (15:00) J.Kitna pass incomplete to T.Stewart. PENALTY on CLV-K. Lang, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at CLV 32 - No Play. 1-10-CLE17 (14:55) Ru.Johnson right tackle to CLV 17 for no gain (B. Boyer). 2-10-CLE17 (14:15) Ru.Johnson right guard to CLV 8 for 9 yards (B. Boyer). 3-1-CLE8 (13:39) Ru.Johnson right tackle to CLV 5 for 3 yards (B. Boyer). 1-5-CLE5 (12:59) J.Kitna pass to C.Johnson to CLV 2 for 3 yards (Andra Davis; K. Bentley). 2-2-CLE2 (12:20) Ru.Johnson left tackle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. S.Graham extra point is GOOD, Center-B.St. Louis, Holder-K.Richardson.
4 rushes for 20 yards & 1 catch for 3 yards, on this series, Rudi had 4 rushes for 20 yards, although the stats are a bit skewed because of the long run, the fact remains that when Rudi gets steady plays, he will produce. He also had a reception. The rest of the game, Rudi had 11 carries for 30 yards, which is about a 2.72 ypc mark. But that's including when he had maybe one or two plays per drive when Cincy was using Brandon Bennett and Cory Dillon. If he gets consecutive plays, and doesn't have a chance to get cold during the game, Rudi will perform at a higher level this year.
Hey Grouse,I just check out the footblog in your sig. Nice, is this your personal blog?Think you'll fare any better with your Rudi/Perry prognostication? If guys you keep predicting to underperform continue to turn into studs, you're going to start developing a curdled rep around here.
You know, it never ceases to amaze me how little people actually understand the game of football, but how many FFers think that they are experts because they watch a few games and follow the individual stats of some players.A good example is this "75%" of the carries notion. Very, very few RBs get 75%, or even close to 75% of their team's rushes in the regular season. For example, here are the 30 top rushers last year with the percentage of their respective team's total rushing attempts they accounted for
layer Ricky Williams 80%Curtis Martin 79%Deuce McAllister 78%Travis Henry 78%LaDainian Tomlinson 75%Shaun Alexander 72%Tiki Barber 72%Priest Holmes 72%Fred Taylor 72%Jamal Lewis 70%Ahman Green 70%Edgerrin James 68%Eddie George 64%Stephen Davis 61%Marcel Shipp 57%Domanick Davis 57%Jerome Bettis 55%Anthony Thomas 55%Clinton Portis 53%Troy Hambrick 53%Marshall Faulk 51%T.J. Duckett 45%Rudi Johnson 45%Michael Pittman 44%Kevan Barlow 40%Antowain Smith 38%Tyrone Wheatley 38%Garrison Hearst 36%Moe Williams 35%Warrick Dunn 29%If Johnson is one of the top 15 workhorses in the league - which I seriously doubt, considering that I think Perry will be an impact rookie, given Johnson's penchant so far to lay eggs on the road & in the division (especially in the division - which are huge games), he would still get less than 60% of the carries that the Bengals generate.Now, knowing that, try out your projections again.Thanks, you are right, of course. It is percentage of rushing attempts. Many thanks, I'll edit.*** - Post editBTW, here are the league's 30 leading rushers by percentage of their team's total rushing production (essentially the same statement I was making earlier, also BTW)
layer Deuce McAllister 82%Travis Henry 81%Jamal Lewis 77%LaDainian Tomlinson 77%Fred Taylor 76%Ricky Williams 76%Edgerrin James 74%Priest Holmes 74%Ahman Green 74%Shaun Alexander 71%Stephen Davis 69%Eddie George 64%Domanick Davis 62%Tiki Barber 61%Clinton Portis 61%Anthony Thomas 58%Marshall Faulk 55%Jerome Bettis 55%Marcel Shipp 54%Kevan Barlow 51%Curtis Martin 65%Troy Hambrick 49%Rudi Johnson 48%Michael Pittman 46%T.J. Duckett 40%Antowain Smith 40%Garrison Hearst 48%Tyrone Wheatley 37%Warrick Dunn 34%Moe Williams 32%
Sure. My recent contribution to the Football Guys rankings (July 7th) has Rudi ranked 17th among RBs, 19th overall. Since those rankings were submitted, I've begun tweaking my projections in earnest and now have Rudi ranked 21st (T) among RBs and 26th overall. Here are the players surrounding him in my rankings...RBs - 19. Michael Bennett 20. Brian Westbrook 21. Duce Staley 21. Rudi Johnson 23. Julius Jones 24. Kevin Jones 25. Charlie Garner. (Not using PPR scoring)Overall-Moss, Culpepper, Harrison, and Holt are ranked ahead of Rudi in my projections, allowing for his bump to 26th.Colin,I think it will make it a lot easier on us if you tell us where you have him ranked, and what players you have ahead of him. Then we can have a reference point for what players you feel should be drafted ahead of him. Thanks
Dude, I gotta tell ya, I'm impressed. Awsome Job.
So let's lower the number then. Instead of using the 20-carry mark as a measuring stick for Johnson, let's go with ... 15 carries a game. That projects to 240 carries a season and seems to be a reasonable average for Rudi - especially for those folks who believe Perry is going to eat up a lot of carries this season. And using last year's numbers as a gauge, if Rudi got 240 carries, that would only be 50 percent of the carries, so the number would seem to be a fair one to use when trying to evaluate Johnson's potential. So looking back at the 2003 season, Johnson had seven games with at least 15 carries. Of those seven games, he only two clunkers -- 15-51 vs. Cleveland and 17-55 vs. San Diego. His other five starts ranged from good to off the charts. And in the game where he had 14 carries and was shut down in terms of yardage, he scored 2 TDs, making him a fantastic start that week. In other words, when Johnson gets at least 15 carries in a game he is a rock solid fantasy starting option 71 percent of the time. Given how he is the incumbent starter heading into camp, I think it's safe to assume he'll get no fewer than 15 carries a game and if that's the case based on what he did a year ago, he projects to be a very good RB2 in most leagues. Also, you mention how Dillon twice came back from injury last season and was given his job back. That's very true. But what happened both times? Rudi outperformed him. That's something that should be taken into strong consideration by all those who believe Perry is going to stake a major claim to action in the Bengals' backfield this season.
It' not flawed. It's perfectly reasonable.Yes, the top two back last year combined for approximately 1,500 yards. However, the top two backs were interchangeably the primary ball carries, as well. However, Dillon is now gone. Additionally, the 3rd leading rusher, Bennett went for about 175 yards primarily on 3rd down duty. However, Bennett is now gone.I am not assuming the quazi RBBC situation Dillon and Johnson were in last year repeated with Rudi and Perry, obviously. I am assuming Rudi will be the guy with Perry taking 3rd down duties (in Bennett's place) and the occassional spelling of Rudi. Dillon is gone and Bennett is gone and I am not going to assume that PW will go for another 150 yards.So, that leaves the vast bulk of the 2,000 yard rushing pie to be allocated between Rudi and Perry, and like I said, I think it's reasonable that Rudi will get 65% - 75% of that productivity with Perry taking the vast majority of the difference.IMO, the Bengals drafted Pery because 1) they had no RB depth and 2) Rudi had a big year last year, and they had to give him the minimum 1st and 3rd tender just to protect him. They know that when he does it again this year, they will not be able to afford to keep him (Oakland here he comes). But, Perry will be eased in (probably 100'ish carries) and they will give Rudi the abuse this year since they do not plan on keeping him.That's my $0.02. The analysis is not flawed. You may disagree with the assumptions (e.g. it will not be RBBC, the offense will not regress with Palmer, or whatever), but the logic/analysis is straight forward and simple.If you think it is 1,200/300 for Rudi/Perry, then where is the other 500? Who picks that up? That's a big piece of change to leave laying around in your analysis.
Ok this was thinking longer term.. but this thread is ony concerned with what Rudi can do this year.I think Rudi is quite the mauler type of a RB. He can really pummel a team with weak tackling and I do expect the Bengals to use him this way as often as possible and he could have a decent year.But I also expect him to struggle against sound run defences and that is not the kind of player I want in the 2nd round when there are so many more players I could draft with much more confidence.Some people compared Rudi to Henry in this post. There is no precident for this considering the brevity of Rudi's body of work compared to Henrys.Making comparisons to Domanic Davis I can understand better with one problem though. When Davis gets stuffed running the ball he can still catch and offers some consistency because of this. Rudi doesen't as he will most likely be spelled by Perry who has a much more well rounded skill set than Rudi has in those situations.Rudi looks more like a match up type of RB who will have some big games with a heavy dose of carries against defenses that are susceptable to his power rushing style. But he will also bomb against more solid defenses imo and will be a wasted pick during those games.Here is the Bengals regular season schedule and when I would feel comfortable starting him:Sept. 12 at New York Jets 1:00 p.m. MAYBESept. 19 Miami 8:30 p.m. NOSept. 26 Baltimore 1:00 p.m. DEFINITLY NOTOct. 3 at Pittsburgh 1:00 p.m. MAYBEOct. 10 Open Date Oct. 17 at Cleveland 1:00 p.m. YESOct. 25 Denver 9:00 p.m. MAYBEOct. 31 at Tennessee 1:00 p.m. MAYBENov. 7 Dallas 1:00 p.m. NONov. 14 at Washington 4:05p YESNov. 21 Pittsburgh 1:00 p.m. YESNov. 28 Cleveland 1:00 p.m. YESDec. 5 at Baltimore 1:00 p.m. NODec. 12 at New England 1:00 p.m. NODec. 19 Buffalo 1:00 p.m. NODec. 26 New York Giants 1:00 p.m. YESJan. 2 at Philadelphia 1:00 p.m. NOSo thats 5 games where I think I would be ok with starting him. One of them is week 16 so that is a good thing if Rudi can hang on to the starting job all year.He has a nice late push in Novemeber but I am seeing a rough start for Rudi. Those maybe games are all away until week 7 when the Bengals host Denver.Now if he were a RB that I had confidence in even against bad match ups it would be less of an issue. But he isn't. And this looks bad enough to me that there is no way I would touch him in the 2nd round.I might consider trading for him after the Dallas game if he struggles and loses value in his owners eyes by then though which I think he might.That is if he has not lost his job to Perry by then...
Kitna - 113Warrick - 143You can't just forget about those numbers. I think it's much more useful to look at RB only stats, or RB stats for the top two guys. Just my :twocents:
Ok, now let's remove the spin and look at those "clunkers" again:
We're not going to have much of a discussion if you continue to toss out the games that don't suit you. THe fact is he was OUTPLAYED by Corey Dillon in all 5 gams I mentioned. Corey Dillon is gone, yes. But you act like Rudi can just assume those numbers. Answer me 2 questions, than I'll let sleeping dogs lie...1. WHy did Marvin keep giving Dillon - a clubhouse cancer and walking injury - the ball if Rudi is/was so special?
"Clunker 1": Week 12 - Dillon goes for 108 yards on 18 carries (6ypc). On 17 carries (one fewer) Rudi gos for 55 (3.23ypc).
Dillon had 108 yards on 18 carries. Dillon is gone. Let's give Rudi the full 25-30 carries and see what he might have done here. 100 yards rushing? Probably.
"CLunker 2": Week 13 - Dillon has 10 carries for 48 yards (4.8 ypc). Rudi has 10 carries for 29 yards (2.9 ypc).
You are seriously going to peg this a clunker when he had TEN carries??
"Clunker 3": Week 14 - Dillon has 11 for 45 (4 ypc). Rudi has 4 for 10 (2.5 ypc)
EVEN WORSE, You are seriously going to peg this a clunker when he had FOUR carries? Someone PLEASE pass me that joint.
"Clunker 4": week 16 - Dillon has 7 for 37 (5.28 ypc). Rudi has 11 for 30 (2.73ypc)
11 carries. See above.
"Clunker 5": Week 17 - Dillon has 8 for 50 (6.25ypc). Rudi has 2 TDs, but a not so stellar 14 for 52 (3.71 ypc).
Please let's not try and cast a game in which he scored twice as a "clunker," that's just silly. And if its the yards you are questioning, did you hear that Corey Dillon is no longer on the team? Let's give his 50 yards to Rudi instead. 100 yards and 2 TD's. Clunker if I ever saw one.
I have a hard time categorizing any of those games as a true "clunker." Not sure what you are thinking having this guy the 21st ranked RB with those kinds of numbers. Might he bust? Sure. Is he a gamble? Sure. But to argue that he didn't perform well really undermines your whole argument.
We might have to start "talking" pretty soon. Like this season. With C.Palmer now the QB and C.Dillon playing in New England, I dont see any reason why Ru.Johnson cant get 330 carries. This probably wont be the pass-happy Bengals we saw last year.
And some people read too little in the significance of a contract year. While it benefits the player to boost his stats, it actually hurts the bargaining position of the team.Look at it this way - if Johnson gets the majority of the carries, and he underperforms, the Bengals may very well miss out on a playoff shot - for which they are actually viable for the first time in years. Don't think the front office isn't aware of the fan base & their impact. Making the playoffs is very important. If Johnson outperforms, the Bengals know that they'll get held up in contract negotiations, and Johnson will ask for a lot more than they'll want to give next year. If Johnson performs at about position level, then the Bengals will not have stepped up their offense the way I think they'd like to, especially since you have to figure Palmer struggling some in his first year starting - and which probably also means no playoffs.If you look at it from that standpoint, since the Bengals will have Perry in the fold for at least 3 years, it certainly is in the team's best interest to at least give Perry an even-up chance at starting. If Perry performs as well as Johnson, then Perry has to get the nod, strictly from a business standpoint. That means Johnson has to significantly beat out Perry to get the kind of carries that some people are projecting for him (which I think is completely nuts, but that is another issue backed by the starting RB stats I posted earlier). That I just don't see happening, based upon past performance.If Johnson renegotiates his contract and CIN gives him more years & money, that to me is the team saying that Johnson is their guy at featured RB, no matter what. That benefits both sides in this situation, provided that CIN thinks that Johnson is really the go-to guy. In any other scenario, Perry wins the tie.
Sorry, it just doesn't work this way. Marvin Lewis could care less right now what 1,500 yards from Rudi would do to his contract demands next year. Next year is next year. He anted up $1.8 million for Rudi this year, and I assure you, if Rudi proves capable Lewis will give him ample opportunity to run his #### off with absolutely zero regard for his future contract demands. Maybe Rudi struggles, fumbles, whatever and Perry gets more time as a result. But future money and business will not have any factor in how Lewis divides up the carries and the opportunities. Lewis would be thrilled if Rudi could win the rushing title. What would that do for Palmer, for their defense, for winning games late in the year, in the playoffs? These are the kinds of things that keep Lewis up at night, negotiating with Rudi and his agent next year - isn't one of them. The Bengals will attempt to get the most possible production they can out of whomever they deem to be the best performing option for them. That's it, and that's all.I agree, Very interesting stat lineFF PLayoffs...Week 14: 4 carries, 10 yards, 0 TDs.Nope, but do I care? If the bottom line is that over 200+ carries he averaged 4.5 yards per carry, that is fine with me.
Did he have under 4 in some games? Sweet, that means he had over 5 in others ...
Week 15: 21 carries, 174 yards, 2 TDs.
Week 16 Championship: 11 carries, 30 yards, 0 TDs.
You might want someone a wee bit more consistant in the 2nd round.
Colin
(1) Marv needed to showcase Dillon a little, to drive up Dillon's trade value for the next year.It worked, as Marv turned a malcontent clubhouse cancer, that was not going to be on the Bengals 2004 roster, into a 2nd rounder. Good job Marv.
(2) Brandon Bennett, Jamel White, Troy Hambrick, Skip Hicks would indeed have provided depth, but what is their upside? You know what you'll be getting with all these guys and it ain't much. Would you, as a Coach, be comfortable turing over the fulltime RB job to any of those guys, if your main guy went down to season ending injury? They're all 2nd stringers, except maybe for White, and while he's good, I don't think he could handle the load of a fulltime back, especially in that Division. He's most valuable as a 3rd down back. Personally I see Perry with much higher upside than any of the guys you suggested. Also, depending on how Rudi does this year, Marv's covered his bases with Perry, just in case Rudi blows up and becomes an exorbitantly priced FA. Again, good job Marv.
My 
. In a 12 team League, I think Rudi's an decent pick, mid to late 2nd round.Perhaps you misunderstood what I wrote. It seems that way. Let's find out.So, if Perry & Johnson perform at relatively equivalent levels, you are saying that Marvin Lewis will choose Johnson over Perry? Please justify this thought if this is indeed what you are saying.Sorry, it just doesn't work this way. Marvin Lewis could care less right now what 1,500 yards from Rudi would do to his contract demands next year. Next year is next year. He anted up $1.8 million for Rudi this year, and I assure you, if Rudi proves capable Lewis will give him ample opportunity to run his #### off with absolutely zero regard for his future contract demands. Maybe Rudi struggles, fumbles, whatever and Perry gets more time as a result. But future money and business will not have any factor in how Lewis divides up the carries and the opportunities. Lewis would be thrilled if Rudi could win the rushing title. What would that do for Palmer, for their defense, for winning games late in the year, in the playoffs? These are the kinds of things that keep Lewis up at night, negotiating with Rudi and his agent next year - isn't one of them. The Bengals will attempt to get the most possible production they can out of whomever they deem to be the best performing option for them. That's it, and that's all.
So even though the Bengals were right in the thick of the playoff run Marvin would rather drive up a players trade value over trying to play his best players to get the Bengals into the playoffs.That makes absolutely no sense. He played the RB who he thought gave them the best chance to win and get into the playoffs, and that happened to be Dillon.Maybe he was wrong, but to say he played Dillon to drive up his trade value during a crucial stretch of games in ridiculous.(1) Marv needed to showcase Dillon a little, to drive up Dillon's trade value for the next year.It worked, as Marv turned a malcontent clubhouse cancer, that was not going to be on the Bengals 2004 roster, into a 2nd rounder. Good job Marv.
What's the point in debating a hypothetical that holds no merit in reality? No two players are equal. And certainly Rudi Johnson and Chris Perry are not even close. Marvin Lewis will not find himself at the end of preseason scratching his head saying; "Man, these two running backs, Johnson and Perry, I just can't tell them apart, they're just so darn similar and equal, I'll just give Perry the ball to save us some money on Rudi's next contract."That's bogus and faulty logic. For starters, Rudi and Perry are completely different runners and each offers something the other seemingly does not. Second, until Perry gets an NFL season under his belt, he's just a rookie, and thus there is an experience factor that weighs heavily in Rudi's favor right now. That in and of itself, regardless of playing ability, makes these backs very different. Your statements regarding Lewis and him choosing Perry with all things being equal, for business reasons, fails to take into account their unique physical skills, the experience factor and how the business of running a football team really works.Bottom line: Johnson and Perry will never be viewed as equals. And Marvin Lewis will do whatever he believes will help him win games THIS SEASON. He'll worry about what's going to happen in the boardroom with Rudi and his agent whenever he has to go there. Furthermore, given Rudi's positive public remarks about being a Bengal, I would expect that should Johnson begin to flourish, we could likely see a contract extension happen during the season.Perhaps you misunderstood what I wrote. It seems that way. Let's find out.So, if Perry & Johnson perform at relatively equivalent levels, you are saying that Marvin Lewis will choose Johnson over Perry? Please justify this thought if this is indeed what you are saying.
Experience means very little in the way of RBs, like it certainly does factor with QBs & WRs. Even the FF neophytes know that a rookie RB or 2 break into the top 10 almost every season. I'm disappointed that you are dodging this issue. I expected more. 2 RBs can definitely be compared, even though they provide different attributes to their teams. Hell, we do it here almost every single day.
What's so interesting about it? Last year Rudi was a WAIVER WIRE pick-up. How much can you possibly ask for from a waiver wire pick-up? He also wasn't the starter ALL 3 of those games. Not too bad of stats from a BACK-UP.I agree, Very interesting stat lineFF PLayoffs...Week 14: 4 carries, 10 yards, 0 TDs.
Did he have under 4 in some games? Sweet, that means he had over 5 in others ...
Week 15: 21 carries, 174 yards, 2 TDs.
Week 16 Championship: 11 carries, 30 yards, 0 TDs.
You might want someone a wee bit more consistant in the 2nd round.
Colin
Moderated, Did you bother to check the number of carries both Dillon & Rudi had over the crucial stretch of games, before you made that staement?
What am I dodging exactly?
No. Not the same and this is not consistent with what you were suggesting earlier. Comparing Rudi and Perry on these boards and comparing potential fantasy production/points etc. is NOT anywhere near the same animal as the nature of comparison and decision making that Marvin Lewis would go through in determining whether Rudi or Perry would carry the load for the Bengals this season.And if you don't think experience matters; answer this question;How many playoff teams over the last 20 years fielded a lineup with a starting QB AND RB who both entered the season with zero NFL game experience?
Guess I didn't check the numbers too closely.Looks like Rudi did get the bulk of the work in the crucial games.
Actually Moderated, even though in the past Dillon had been a proven commodity in the NFL, 2003 was an injury plauged year for Dillon.How do you get a 2nd round draft pick for a RB that will be 31 years old this season, struggled with injuries in the season and then when supposedly finally healthy, sits on the bench?
