Running backs - get 'em. Trust me. (1 Viewer)

[pantherclub]

Was just sayin if you wanted RB's better grab em early. Daryl freakin Richardson went 37 in my league. That should tell you how fast they came off the board. Doesn't mean one should reach.

Ummm, excuse me? That's exactly what it means. If everyone else is going for RBs and you "grab 'em early", by definition you're reaching.

Meanwhile, my opinion upthread was that anyone who drafted a guy like Sproles over (wait for it!) Peyton Manning or Demaryius Thomas needed to have his head examined.

The problem with that is if you pass on Sproles and grab one of those guys then next round your looking at Ryan Matthews or someone of that caliber who shouldn't be starting on any roster. There's no clear cut and dry answer. Obviously if your early RB picks worked out, you're happy with going RB early. If you're late round RB's worked out, your philosophy is that you should have waited.

I agree though, if you were guaranteed to grab great late round RB's, the perfect draft would probably start with the first few rounds grabbing 2 WR's and a QB or elite TE. The problem is that almost all RB's are underperforming this year, not just the 1st rounders. I would love having 2 elite WR's in my lineup every week but I'm glad I don't have to decide if I'm starting Ingram or Mathews as my RB2.

The thing is though, using your example of Matthews, he is ranked around 30 and only 10 or so total points away from top 15. And he is above a lot of the guys that went in the first couple rounds. So add his points to a Manning, Rodgers, Bryant or Thomas and thats a solid foundation of a team. Matthews isnt outright sucking this year in comparison of where he was drafted. He would be an outright bust if he was picked in the first couple rounds.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Was just sayin if you wanted RB's better grab em early. Daryl freakin Richardson went 37 in my league. That should tell you how fast they came off the board. Doesn't mean one should reach.

Ummm, excuse me? That's exactly what it means. If everyone else is going for RBs and you "grab 'em early", by definition you're reaching.

Meanwhile, my opinion upthread was that anyone who drafted a guy like Sproles over (wait for it!) Peyton Manning or Demaryius Thomas needed to have his head examined.

The problem with that is if you pass on Sproles and grab one of those guys then next round your looking at Ryan Matthews or someone of that caliber who shouldn't be starting on any roster. There's no clear cut and dry answer. Obviously if your early RB picks worked out, you're happy with going RB early. If you're late round RB's worked out, your philosophy is that you should have waited.

I agree though, if you were guaranteed to grab great late round RB's, the perfect draft would probably start with the first few rounds grabbing 2 WR's and a QB or elite TE. The problem is that almost all RB's are underperforming this year, not just the 1st rounders. I would love having 2 elite WR's in my lineup every week but I'm glad I don't have to decide if I'm starting Ingram or Mathews as my RB2.

Manning and Mathews would be far better than Sproles and any other QB.

In any case, it is extremely silly to be trying to prove or disprove any of this 3 games into the season.

 

[dickey moe]

Thanks Smails!

 

[pantherclub]

Lol.

 

[Judge Smails]

LOL what? Sure lots of RB's tanked - they do every year. But Charles and McCoy were on lots of championship teams. Forte was solid all year. ADP was ADP when not hurt. Marshawn Lynch was still BeastMode in many games. Alfred Morris was 5 YPC most of the year, was victimized by horrible coaching and QB play. Of the second tier backs, DeMarco Murray had many big games and stayed healthy most of the year. So did Reggie Bush. Nobody expected huge upside at 32 for Gore - so you got what you thought you were going to get, and he was healthy most of the year. MJD played as well as expected. My point in the thread was that if you wanted guys like Eddie Lacy etc they were not making it past round 3. Levion Bell went early too. Both were extremely solid as rookies.

The real disappointments this year were:

1) CJ Spiller - probably most baffling to me, about 2 flashes of last year's brilliance and nothing but #### otherwise

2) Trent Richardson - horrible underchiever

3) Arian Foster - hurt, team on downward spiral, had big red flags on draft day

4) Ray Rice - Ravens went from 2 backs who could run the ball to none. While many were iffy on Rice, nobody thought the team couldn't run at all

5) Darren McFadden - had red stop signs all over him, but was still going in round 4.

6) SJax - red signs all over him

7) Doug Martin - hurt, but average when in there.

I would say in every draft you're going to have 6 or so disappointing RB's in the first two rounds. This year was no different. There were steals too. Knowshon Moreno, until playoff time, was the steal of the draft along with Zac Stacy.

So what? Outside of Peyton Manning, who really performed as advertised from a QB standpoint? Brees tanked when it counted. Brady owners were offing themselves most of the year. Rodgers hurt and not puttin up monster #'s even when he was in. Stafford did a mammoth tank job. RGIII horrific. Romo was Romo. Ryan lost his soul when Julio got hurt. Cutler was Cutler. Flacco sucked. Kaepernick huge underperformer. Cam didn't carry people like last year. Eli was the worst of the worst. Wilson was a zero come playoff time. I mean, other than Foles and Rivers, who stepped as a QB to potentially help win Fantasy championships?

As for WR's, Calvin was a total non-factor in weeks 15-16. Bet he wasn't on winning rosters. AJ Green was solid. Dez? Huge rollercoaster all year. Julio hurt. Roddy down. Cruz 4 TD's all year, injured and a victim of Eli. Demarius was good, but his 22 yard performance in the semi's knocked a lot of teams out. Decker was the tail of 2 half seasons - zero the first half, probably #1 the second half. Jordy Nelson and other GB receivers? Quack when Rodgers went out. So which WR's were really worth betting on? Were you going to draft Antonio Brown in the 3rd round when RB's were flying off the board? No. Those of us who got him in round 5 were very happy. DeShaun Jackson? Maybe, but you were betting on Vick at the time. Welker? That didn't win many championships. Other than Antonio, Josh Gordon and Alshon Jeffries were the draft picks who could have made your year at WR. Then of course everyone knew Julius Edelman would be the #1 WR over a multiple week span.

TE - Gronk hurt, Jimmy Graham did nothing when it counted, on and on and on.

Our champion? The guy who had Peyton and Decker. Those guys, McCoy, Charles were probably on a lot of SB teams.

So if you were not lucky enough to get Peyton, what was the "right" strategy this year?

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

loool yeah, i guess I should've grabbed mccoy and charles with my first 2 picks...

 

[pantherclub]

LOL what? Sure lots of RB's tanked - they do every year. But Charles and McCoy were on lots of championship teams. Forte was solid all year. ADP was ADP when not hurt. Marshawn Lynch was still BeastMode in many games. Alfred Morris was 5 YPC most of the year, was victimized by horrible coaching and QB play. Of the second tier backs, DeMarco Murray had many big games and stayed healthy most of the year. So did Reggie Bush. Nobody expected huge upside at 32 for Gore - so you got what you thought you were going to get, and he was healthy most of the year. MJD played as well as expected. My point in the thread was that if you wanted guys like Eddie Lacy etc they were not making it past round 3. Levion Bell went early too. Both were extremely solid as rookies.

The real disappointments this year were:

1) CJ Spiller - probably most baffling to me, about 2 flashes of last year's brilliance and nothing but #### otherwise

2) Trent Richardson - horrible underchiever

3) Arian Foster - hurt, team on downward spiral, had big red flags on draft day

4) Ray Rice - Ravens went from 2 backs who could run the ball to none. While many were iffy on Rice, nobody thought the team couldn't run at all

5) Darren McFadden - had red stop signs all over him, but was still going in round 4.

6) SJax - red signs all over him

7) Doug Martin - hurt, but average when in there.

I would say in every draft you're going to have 6 or so disappointing RB's in the first two rounds. This year was no different. There were steals too. Knowshon Moreno, until playoff time, was the steal of the draft along with Zac Stacy.

So what? Outside of Peyton Manning, who really performed as advertised from a QB standpoint? Brees tanked when it counted. Brady owners were offing themselves most of the year. Rodgers hurt and not puttin up monster #'s even when he was in. Stafford did a mammoth tank job. RGIII horrific. Romo was Romo. Ryan lost his soul when Julio got hurt. Cutler was Cutler. Flacco sucked. Kaepernick huge underperformer. Cam didn't carry people like last year. Eli was the worst of the worst. Wilson was a zero come playoff time. I mean, other than Foles and Rivers, who stepped as a QB to potentially help win Fantasy championships?

As for WR's, Calvin was a total non-factor in weeks 15-16. Bet he wasn't on winning rosters. AJ Green was solid. Dez? Huge rollercoaster all year. Julio hurt. Roddy down. Cruz 4 TD's all year, injured and a victim of Eli. Demarius was good, but his 22 yard performance in the semi's knocked a lot of teams out. Decker was the tail of 2 half seasons - zero the first half, probably #1 the second half. Jordy Nelson and other GB receivers? Quack when Rodgers went out. So which WR's were really worth betting on? Were you going to draft Antonio Brown in the 3rd round when RB's were flying off the board? No. Those of us who got him in round 5 were very happy. DeShaun Jackson? Maybe, but you were betting on Vick at the time. Welker? That didn't win many championships. Other than Antonio, Josh Gordon and Alshon Jeffries were the draft picks who could have made your year at WR. Then of course everyone knew Julius Edelman would be the #1 WR over a multiple week span.

TE - Gronk hurt, Jimmy Graham did nothing when it counted, on and on and on.

Our champion? The guy who had Peyton and Decker. Those guys, McCoy, Charles were probably on a lot of SB teams.

So if you were not lucky enough to get Peyton, what was the "right" strategy this year?

I think you missed the gist of this thread. Completely.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

loool yeah, i guess I should've grabbed mccoy and charles with my first 2 picks...

championship! Oh yeah!

 

[One]

McCoy/Mathews Champ x 2

 

[Rhythmdoctor]

LOL what? Sure lots of RB's tanked - they do every year. But Charles and McCoy were on lots of championship teams. Forte was solid all year. ADP was ADP when not hurt. Marshawn Lynch was still BeastMode in many games. Alfred Morris was 5 YPC most of the year, was victimized by horrible coaching and QB play. Of the second tier backs, DeMarco Murray had many big games and stayed healthy most of the year. So did Reggie Bush. Nobody expected huge upside at 32 for Gore - so you got what you thought you were going to get, and he was healthy most of the year. MJD played as well as expected. My point in the thread was that if you wanted guys like Eddie Lacy etc they were not making it past round 3. Levion Bell went early too. Both were extremely solid as rookies.

The real disappointments this year were:

1) CJ Spiller - probably most baffling to me, about 2 flashes of last year's brilliance and nothing but #### otherwise

2) Trent Richardson - horrible underchiever

3) Arian Foster - hurt, team on downward spiral, had big red flags on draft day

4) Ray Rice - Ravens went from 2 backs who could run the ball to none. While many were iffy on Rice, nobody thought the team couldn't run at all

5) Darren McFadden - had red stop signs all over him, but was still going in round 4.

6) SJax - red signs all over him

7) Doug Martin - hurt, but average when in there.

I would say in every draft you're going to have 6 or so disappointing RB's in the first two rounds. This year was no different. There were steals too. Knowshon Moreno, until playoff time, was the steal of the draft along with Zac Stacy.

So what? Outside of Peyton Manning, who really performed as advertised from a QB standpoint? Brees tanked when it counted. Brady owners were offing themselves most of the year. Rodgers hurt and not puttin up monster #'s even when he was in. Stafford did a mammoth tank job. RGIII horrific. Romo was Romo. Ryan lost his soul when Julio got hurt. Cutler was Cutler. Flacco sucked. Kaepernick huge underperformer. Cam didn't carry people like last year. Eli was the worst of the worst. Wilson was a zero come playoff time. I mean, other than Foles and Rivers, who stepped as a QB to potentially help win Fantasy championships?

As for WR's, Calvin was a total non-factor in weeks 15-16. Bet he wasn't on winning rosters. AJ Green was solid. Dez? Huge rollercoaster all year. Julio hurt. Roddy down. Cruz 4 TD's all year, injured and a victim of Eli. Demarius was good, but his 22 yard performance in the semi's knocked a lot of teams out. Decker was the tail of 2 half seasons - zero the first half, probably #1 the second half. Jordy Nelson and other GB receivers? Quack when Rodgers went out. So which WR's were really worth betting on? Were you going to draft Antonio Brown in the 3rd round when RB's were flying off the board? No. Those of us who got him in round 5 were very happy. DeShaun Jackson? Maybe, but you were betting on Vick at the time. Welker? That didn't win many championships. Other than Antonio, Josh Gordon and Alshon Jeffries were the draft picks who could have made your year at WR. Then of course everyone knew Julius Edelman would be the #1 WR over a multiple week span.

TE - Gronk hurt, Jimmy Graham did nothing when it counted, on and on and on.

Our champion? The guy who had Peyton and Decker. Those guys, McCoy, Charles were probably on a lot of SB teams.

So if you were not lucky enough to get Peyton, what was the "right" strategy this year?

I think you missed the gist of this thread. Completely.

Or you did. Its his thread.

 

[Reegus]

Was able to get jamaal and mccoy while everyone made a qb run. Championship? Check.

 

[pantherclub]

Was able to get jamaal and mccoy while everyone made a qb run. Championship? Check.

4 team league?

 

[Simon Shepherd]

That was a whole load of 16 pts of nothing from Graham this week ....

But I agree with the main premise of the argument. How many top 20 RBs were drafted outside of the top 4 rounds? How many top 20 WRs were? How many top 10 QBs? I don't have time to run the numbers but I imagine it's extremely favourable for RBs.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Two championship games:

• 10 teamer loaded with RBs, but you can only start two: Gio, Forte, Lacy & Stacy, with pathetic WRs. Runner-up.
• 12 teamer (18 years) loaded with WRs - after Shady, went A.J. Green, V-Jax, Colston, and took mid-round flyers on Gordon and Blackmon. Romped to the title, wasn't a close game in the last four weeks.

Small sample size, but the trend (IME) of the last 5-6 years is load up on WRs early and often and you'll do well. It's not hard to find RBs mid-to-late rounds who emerge, and in 12 teamers, you'll still find productive RBs on the wire. Not true (IME) for WRs. I've never had good luck reaching for QBs and TEs early - I end up with weak WR corps, we don't flex (straight 3 WR 2 RB), and it's PPR. That's just IME - your league & scoring system may vary.

 

[Reegus]

Was able to get jamaal and mccoy while everyone made a qb run. Championship? Check.

4 team league?

12 team money league actually.

 

[pantherclub]

Was able to get jamaal and mccoy while everyone made a qb run. Championship? Check.

4 team league?

12 team money league actually.

Of course.

 

[Long Ball Larry]

TE - Jimmy Graham did nothing when it counted, on and on and on.

Huh?

 

[pantherclub]

TE - Jimmy Graham did nothing when it counted, on and on and on.

Huh?

hes rolling

 

[Judge Smails]

Re Graham - our owner got eliminated in Week 15 when he went 2 for 25 yards, no TD's.

 

[pantherclub]

Re Graham - our owner got eliminated in Week 15 when he went 2 for 25 yards, no TD's.

your point?

 

[Breesisdaman]

The thread that doomed my season

 

[32 Counter Pass]

The LOL is because of the suggestion that you better use your first two, and maybe even three picks on the RB position regardless of value elsewhere. Even reading that sentence makes me LOL.

It is and always will be about production, regardless of position.

What makes it even funnier is the suggestion that if you don't blindly pick RBs with these picks you will miss out on any opportunity to land a top 20 RB. First, looking at ppr scoring (ffpc), I see that Lacy, L. Bell, J. Bell, FJax, Woodhead, PThomas, Bernard and Stacy all finished in the top 20. That is 8 RBs that were picked outside the 3rd round. If my roster is producing monster numbers elsewhere I am more than satisfied with any two of these RBs in my starting lineup. But that is what makes this hobby so interesting, I guess.

 

[One]

Thank You, Foles/McCoy!

 

[ImTheScientist]

I was all set to go RB, RB, RB from the first pick. Thinking maybe MJD and Wilson at the 2/3 turn.

Ended up with

Peterson, Julio Jones, and Brandon Marshall because everyone went RBs so early.

Who are your RB?

Its an FPC league. Starts 1QB, 2RB, 2WR, 2Flex, TE

QB: Peyton Manning, Vick

RB: Peterson, Mathews, Bradshaw, Christine Michael, Felix Jones

WR: Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, Mike Wallace, Golden Tate, Malcom Floyd, C. Patterson, Percy Harvin

TE: Fred Davis, Julius Thomas, Fasano

Finished 2nd...didn't go rb rb

 

[rjv]

Finished 2nd went RB RB RB QB WR WR

12 team PPR

Newton

Forte,Bush,T. Rich

Garcon,Allen,A.Brown

J.Thomas

Gould

Chiefs

 

[General Tso]

Finished 1st in 12 team league. Went QB, TE, WR, RB, WR, RB.

I did something similar last year and finished 2nd. In both years i finished with the most points in the regular season. I used to be a big proponent of the stud RB theory, but not anymore.

 

[mbuehner]

Moral of the thread- grab the 2 of 12 rbs that dont tank.

 

[smapdi]

I'm playing for my league championship this week and I didn't take a RB until the 4th round:

10 Team, PPR, 6 pt ALL TD, Flex

1.7. Calvin Johnson

2. Dez Bryant

3. Cam Newton

4. MJD

I am 11-5 and the dominance by my WR's have given me my 6 game win streak to the top. My normal starting line up would be:

QB: Cam Newton

RB: Andre Brown (WW pick up)

RB: MJD or CJ Spiller (Traded Eric Decker for Spiller) or Ben Tate or Lamar Miller/Bilal Powell (Early in the season for those 2)

WR: Calvin Johnson

WR: Dez Bryant

FLEX: Josh Gordon (14th round pick)

TE: Jordan Cameron

Mega and Gordon are tied for #1 WR with 328.2 points a piece in this league. Not many teams have been able to handle the combo of Mega, Dez, and Gordon. My RB's really haven't even mattered. I regret not taking Peyton Manning over Newton but would not change my 1st 2 picks at all.

I think the old RB, RB, RB adage has gone the way of the dinosaurs; especially in PPR leagues.

 

[Dragon1952]

This was the most bizarre year I've participated in as far as injuries and under-performers. And week 16 just took the cake. Anybody that made any predictions for this year that now look silly should be given a pardon.

 

[Judge Smails]

The LOL is because of the suggestion that you better use your first two, and maybe even three picks on the RB position regardless of value elsewhere. Even reading that sentence makes me LOL.

It is and always will be about production, regardless of position.

What makes it even funnier is the suggestion that if you don't blindly pick RBs with these picks you will miss out on any opportunity to land a top 20 RB. First, looking at ppr scoring (ffpc), I see that Lacy, L. Bell, J. Bell, FJax, Woodhead, PThomas, Bernard and Stacy all finished in the top 20. That is 8 RBs that were picked outside the 3rd round. If my roster is producing monster numbers elsewhere I am more than satisfied with any two of these RBs in my starting lineup. But that is what makes this hobby so interesting, I guess.

Yep - I could completely see how you could say that was my suggestion from the original post - which you probably didn't even read. I never suggested following the run nor did I draft that way. Here was the post. So what was the "suggestion" again? That being said, I promise I'll get thicker skin and get back to servin' up chili!

"Our big money league is very competitive. No guppies. 15+ years playing for a 6K+ pot. Maybe because it's a 6point TD league for all we've never followed the stud RB theory as closely as some others. Sure, the top guys always go in round 1 but top QB's get picked up and there is always a big run in rounds 2 and 3 to nab top WR's. You could always find some depth in rounds 3-5 as guys went after other positions.

Not this year.

HUGE run on RB's.

11 of the 12 picks in the first round:

ADP

Martin

Charles

McCoy

Foster

Spiller

Rice

Calvin

Richardson

Lynch

Morris

Forte

I somewhat expected that, but what I didn't expect was the huge run continuing. SJax at 2.03, CJ at 2.04 - and the kicker - GORE at 2.06. That pick really shifted the draft into a frenzy. Ridley then went 2.08 and MJD 2.11. So when Murray went 3.01, Reggie Bush, 3.04, David Wilson 3.05 there was really nothing after that. Lacy went 3.12. D. Richardson went 4.01, McFadden 4.2, Sproles 4.5, Mathews 4.6, L. Miller 4.10, etc. Bernard from Cincy went 5.1!!!

Never seen anything like it in our league. Guys were hoarding 3 in the their first 3 picks. It was like a RB hurricane warning was announced and the owners raided the convenience and hardware stores to stock up on any living, breathing RB. "

 

[pantherclub]

Lol at Smails. Got owned.

 

[need2know]

I won my league using rainey and vereen as my 2 rbs in the championship game

 

[Long Ball Larry]

Lol at Smails. Got owned.

Seriously, the thread title says "running backs - get 'em."

But he didn't really mean that you should get them.

 

[BigDave]

I've always been a big fan of stud RB's, but I must confess it's a QB league now and not many stud RB's left.

Most NFL teams have RBBC. So, even when you go RB heavy early in the draft, your not getting true stud one back AP type players. Is it smart to stock up on those types over other positions? Not so much any more.

I had Martin in the first - DUD

Took D. Wilson in the 4th and L. Miller in the 5th - DUDS

Took Lacy in the 6th - S T U D

I was able to grab A.Brown and Mathews off the wire

My biggest mistake was dropping Moreno early when there was a lot of indecision in the Denver backfield.

If I had held on, my RB's would have been STUDS even with my misses early in the draft.

Next year I'm getting 1-2 high quality RB's in the 1st 6 rounds. BPA otherwise.

 

[TheFootballJesus]

LOL what? Sure lots of RB's tanked - they do every year. But Charles and McCoy were on lots of championship teams. Forte was solid all year. ADP was ADP when not hurt. Marshawn Lynch was still BeastMode in many games. Alfred Morris was 5 YPC most of the year, was victimized by horrible coaching and QB play. Of the second tier backs, DeMarco Murray had many big games and stayed healthy most of the year. So did Reggie Bush. Nobody expected huge upside at 32 for Gore - so you got what you thought you were going to get, and he was healthy most of the year. MJD played as well as expected. My point in the thread was that if you wanted guys like Eddie Lacy etc they were not making it past round 3. Levion Bell went early too. Both were extremely solid as rookies.

The real disappointments this year were:

1) CJ Spiller - probably most baffling to me, about 2 flashes of last year's brilliance and nothing but #### otherwise

2) Trent Richardson - horrible underchiever

3) Arian Foster - hurt, team on downward spiral, had big red flags on draft day

4) Ray Rice - Ravens went from 2 backs who could run the ball to none. While many were iffy on Rice, nobody thought the team couldn't run at all

5) Darren McFadden - had red stop signs all over him, but was still going in round 4.

6) SJax - red signs all over him

7) Doug Martin - hurt, but average when in there.

I would say in every draft you're going to have 6 or so disappointing RB's in the first two rounds. This year was no different. There were steals too. Knowshon Moreno, until playoff time, was the steal of the draft along with Zac Stacy.

So what? Outside of Peyton Manning, who really performed as advertised from a QB standpoint? Brees tanked when it counted. Brady owners were offing themselves most of the year. Rodgers hurt and not puttin up monster #'s even when he was in. Stafford did a mammoth tank job. RGIII horrific. Romo was Romo. Ryan lost his soul when Julio got hurt. Cutler was Cutler. Flacco sucked. Kaepernick huge underperformer. Cam didn't carry people like last year. Eli was the worst of the worst. Wilson was a zero come playoff time. I mean, other than Foles and Rivers, who stepped as a QB to potentially help win Fantasy championships?

As for WR's, Calvin was a total non-factor in weeks 15-16. Bet he wasn't on winning rosters. AJ Green was solid. Dez? Huge rollercoaster all year. Julio hurt. Roddy down. Cruz 4 TD's all year, injured and a victim of Eli. Demarius was good, but his 22 yard performance in the semi's knocked a lot of teams out. Decker was the tail of 2 half seasons - zero the first half, probably #1 the second half. Jordy Nelson and other GB receivers? Quack when Rodgers went out. So which WR's were really worth betting on? Were you going to draft Antonio Brown in the 3rd round when RB's were flying off the board? No. Those of us who got him in round 5 were very happy. DeShaun Jackson? Maybe, but you were betting on Vick at the time. Welker? That didn't win many championships. Other than Antonio, Josh Gordon and Alshon Jeffries were the draft picks who could have made your year at WR. Then of course everyone knew Julius Edelman would be the #1 WR over a multiple week span.

TE - Gronk hurt, Jimmy Graham did nothing when it counted, on and on and on.

Our champion? The guy who had Peyton and Decker. Those guys, McCoy, Charles were probably on a lot of SB teams.

So if you were not lucky enough to get Peyton, what was the "right" strategy this year?

Seems like you're calling a lot of guys that happened to have a single dud performance in the playoffs unworthy of 2nd/3rd round status. Owners were pretty happy with the production they got from Calvin Johnson, Jimmy Graham, Demaryius Thomas, Drew Brees, and Dez Bryant this year- they wouldn't have made it to the fantasy postseason without them.

As is the case every year a lot of 1st/2nd/3rd round running backs ended up underperforming. You mentioned a couple of them, but the list you ended up providing is incomplete. In addition to the 7 you mentioned:

1) Stevan Ridley- Drafted in the 2nd round of all 3 leagues I was in, looked good on the field but kept fumbling his way out of a job

2) Maurice Jones-Drew- Also a regular 2nd round pick, You claim he performed as well as expected....1000 total yards and 5 TDs is well below any preseason projection he had.

3) David Wilson- The preseason hype on this guy was deafening, he was pretty much going regularly in the 3rd round of almost every draft by preseason week 3.

4) Lamar Miller- Saw pretty wide range in terms of where this guy was being drafted, but saw him go in the 3rd round a number of times.

You didn't mention a lot of fantasy WRs that justified 2nd/3rd round status. Andre Johnson was a PPR monster yet again. Brandon Marshall's numbers declined but you can't complain 1200+ yards and 11 TDs. Vincent Jackson appears on pace to come close to last year's numbers. Of course, there were a number of WR busts scattered around the 3rd round area (Amendola, Colston, Bowe).

To answer your question, there is no "right" strategy". The idea that there is only one draft theory that works is a myth. The monotheists that say "get RBs early" get proven wrong year after year. There are going to be busts at every single position as well as late round/free agent gems at every position. Claiming that you had to get RBs early based on your own personal draft experience was pretty foolish... and then to try and justify that viewpoint from 4 months ago by declaring guys like Jimmy Graham "didn't produce when it counted" makes you look stubborn and irrational.

 

[32 Counter Pass]

The LOL is because of the suggestion that you better use your first two, and maybe even three picks on the RB position regardless of value elsewhere. Even reading that sentence makes me LOL.

It is and always will be about production, regardless of position.

What makes it even funnier is the suggestion that if you don't blindly pick RBs with these picks you will miss out on any opportunity to land a top 20 RB. First, looking at ppr scoring (ffpc), I see that Lacy, L. Bell, J. Bell, FJax, Woodhead, PThomas, Bernard and Stacy all finished in the top 20. That is 8 RBs that were picked outside the 3rd round. If my roster is producing monster numbers elsewhere I am more than satisfied with any two of these RBs in my starting lineup. But that is what makes this hobby so interesting, I guess.

Yep - I could completely see how you could say that was my suggestion from the original post - which you probably didn't even read. I never suggested following the run nor did I draft that way. Here was the post. So what was the "suggestion" again? That being said, I promise I'll get thicker skin and get back to servin' up chili!

"Our big money league is very competitive. No guppies. 15+ years playing for a 6K+ pot. Maybe because it's a 6point TD league for all we've never followed the stud RB theory as closely as some others. Sure, the top guys always go in round 1 but top QB's get picked up and there is always a big run in rounds 2 and 3 to nab top WR's. You could always find some depth in rounds 3-5 as guys went after other positions.

Not this year.

HUGE run on RB's.

11 of the 12 picks in the first round:

ADP

Martin

Charles

McCoy

Foster

Spiller

Rice

Calvin

Richardson

Lynch

Morris

Forte

I somewhat expected that, but what I didn't expect was the huge run continuing. SJax at 2.03, CJ at 2.04 - and the kicker - GORE at 2.06. That pick really shifted the draft into a frenzy. Ridley then went 2.08 and MJD 2.11. So when Murray went 3.01, Reggie Bush, 3.04, David Wilson 3.05 there was really nothing after that. Lacy went 3.12. D. Richardson went 4.01, McFadden 4.2, Sproles 4.5, Mathews 4.6, L. Miller 4.10, etc. Bernard from Cincy went 5.1!!!

Never seen anything like it in our league. Guys were hoarding 3 in the their first 3 picks. It was like a RB hurricane warning was announced and the owners raided the convenience and hardware stores to stock up on any living, breathing RB. "

Yes, I read the entire original post, then read it again in this response. Still funny. The suggestion comes from the title of this thread

Running backs - get 'em. Trust me.If you didn't mean to suggest pursuing this strategy then the title is very misleading. Then you go on to say " Guys were hoarding 3 in the their first 3 picks." I wonder where I got the idea that you were suggesting pick RBs with your first three picks. Foolish. But funny.

 

[Run It Up]

So if you were not lucky enough to get Peyton, what was the "right" strategy this year?

Same strategy thats worked for me has continued to work, RB/TE/WR (Mccoy, Graham, Demaryious) then a late QBBC.

The amount of teams I was able to grab Romo and Rivers (and even Stafford in one instance) past the 8th round is ridiculous.

PPR of course.

 

[cobalt_27]

Been saying this for years now, if you are an RB-RB-RB kind of guy, start your own fantasy RB league and just follow your favorite site's rankings. Leave the heavy lifting, the true analytical work, to the rest of us who truly play fantasy football.

I hope the past few years have served a lesson to the RB dogma that still inexplicably attracts the same lemmings to the edge of the same cliff season after season after season.

 

[moleculo]

bah. Just finished a draft - 10 teams, ppr for TE and WR, start 1 RB, 2 WR, 2 flex (RB, WR, or TE), 3 IDP. Took my first RB in the 3rd, second in the 5th. The fact that I only need to start 1 RB gave me the freedom to zig when everyone else zags, so of course it's line-up dependent. I went WR/TE and was still able to pick up Chris Johnson in the 3rd, Miller in the 5th, Bernard in the 6th, and still find RB depth deeper in the draft. I'm a little weak @ QB - I was the last one to take one, but I feel good about this over all.


drafting out of the #4 spot:

1.04 Johnson, Calvin DET WR
2.07 Graham, Jimmy NOS TE
3.04 Johnson, Chris TEN RB
4.07 White, Roddy ATL WR
5.04 Miller, Lamar MIA RB
6.07 Bernard, Giovani CIN RB ®
7.04 Decker, Eric DEN WR
8.07 Shorts, Cecil JAC WR
9.04 Andrew Luck IND QB
10.07 Kuechly, Luke CAR LB
11.04 Tate, Ben HOU RB
12.07 Ingram, Mark NOS RB
13.04 Jackson, D'Qwell CLE LB
14.07 Josh Freeman TB QB
15.04 Lofton, Curtis NOS LB
16.07 Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR ®
17.04 Thomas, Julius DEN TE
18.07 Giants, New York NYG TMPK

eta: full disclosure: there were some guppies drafting in this league, specifically in 1-3 spots. I mean, they have been in the league for a decade, but still haven't quite figured out how fantasy football works. Aaron Rodgers went at 1.03, Brees @ 2.10, Brady @ 3.02. I think they were still in shell-shock after last years QB-heavy draft.

this team took 3rd overall and placed 2nd in scoring. Unlucky break in semi-finals, when Jimmy Graham and Calvin both had poor games. Ended up snagging Rivers off of the WW, and started both Jimmy Graham and Julius Thomas most of the season.

eta: it wasn't Calvin that sucked week 15, it was nearly everyone else on my roster, up and down the starting line-up. 3rd lowest point total of the season. Nearly every line-up decision I made was wrong - just one of those days.

 

[Ack88]

Cobalt's last post was the best I've seen in a while here.

The stud rb theory has been dead for at least 5 years. The nature of real football, and thus fantasy football, has significantly changed.

 

[Dez]

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/redblueradio/2013/07/20/ffwc-history-is-made-our-1st-qualifier-draft-live-on-rvb

I did an online draft with a fantasy show doing the pick by pick commentary and they had several "experts" on critiquing the teams. I drew pick 11 and I decided to go WR/WR to start went AJ Green/Julio Jones...the experts said on the show that this was not going to work this year and that last year was last year and this year you had to get RB's early and often. If you listen to some of the early podcast I was even referenced by name "I keep telling Henry this is not last year" as far as going WR/WR...another expert said "I certainly would not have gone AJ Green and Julio Jones to start my draft"...I won 20 championships this year but there is no doubt the one I wanted the most was this league's championship after being told my draft strategy would not work on live air that night in June. The fact I lost Julio, A-Rodgers and Bradshaw 3 of my top 5 picks made it that much sweeter that I still won it.

To drive this point home even further I won a championship in a $500 satellite in the FFPC this year where I drafted only 1 RB in the first 7 rounds and he was a big time bust Lamar Miller yet still won it.

I will never forget in 2003 in my first ever high stakes draft I was the only team to go WR/WR/WR/WR to start and only 1 out of the other 71 teams even went WR/WR and I was called dead money on the message board for taking 4 WR's in a row to start the draft. My team was within 1 play of winning the overall championship that year just missing finishing 3rd overall out of the 72 teams losing by 6 pts. Then in 2012 I drafted just 1 RB with my first 6 picks and went on to win $100,000 with that team.

 

[pantherclub]

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/redblueradio/2013/07/20/ffwc-history-is-made-our-1st-qualifier-draft-live-on-rvb

I did an online draft with a fantasy show doing the pick by pick commentary and they had several "experts" on critiquing the teams. I drew pick 11 and I decided to go WR/WR to start went AJ Green/Julio Jones...the experts said on the show that this was not going to work this year and that last year was last year and this year you had to get RB's early and often. If you listen to some of the early podcast I was even referenced by name "I keep telling Henry this is not last year" as far as going WR/WR...another expert said "I certainly would not have gone AJ Green and Julio Jones to start my draft"...I won 20 championships this year but there is no doubt the one I wanted the most was this league's championship after being told my draft strategy would not work on live air that night in June. The fact I lost Julio, A-Rodgers and Bradshaw 3 of my top 5 picks made it that much sweeter that I still won it.

To drive this point home even further I won a championship in a $500 satellite in the FFPC this year where I drafted only 1 RB in the first 7 rounds and he was a big time bust Lamar Miller yet still won it.

I will never forget in 2003 in my first ever high stakes draft I was the only team to go WR/WR/WR/WR to start and only 1 out of the other 71 teams even went WR/WR and I was called dead money on the message board for taking 4 WR's in a row to start the draft. My team was within 1 play of winning the overall championship that year just missing finishing 3rd overall out of the 72 teams losing by 6 pts. Then in 2012 I drafted just 1 RB with my first 6 picks and went on to win $100,000 with that team.

Dude. Just dude.

 

[MattFancy]

I my finals I beat a guy that had ADP, Gore, and Reggie Bush at RB. My RBs for the final were Eddie Lacy and Dennis Johnson.

I really think to be successful in fantasy anymore, you just really need 1 stud RB. I think the days of loading up on RBs are over, especially in PPR.

 

[buck naked]

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/redblueradio/2013/07/20/ffwc-history-is-made-our-1st-qualifier-draft-live-on-rvb

I did an online draft with a fantasy show doing the pick by pick commentary and they had several "experts" on critiquing the teams. I drew pick 11 and I decided to go WR/WR to start went AJ Green/Julio Jones...the experts said on the show that this was not going to work this year and that last year was last year and this year you had to get RB's early and often. If you listen to some of the early podcast I was even referenced by name "I keep telling Henry this is not last year" as far as going WR/WR...another expert said "I certainly would not have gone AJ Green and Julio Jones to start my draft"...I won 20 championships this year but there is no doubt the one I wanted the most was this league's championship after being told my draft strategy would not work on live air that night in June. The fact I lost Julio, A-Rodgers and Bradshaw 3 of my top 5 picks made it that much sweeter that I still won it.

To drive this point home even further I won a championship in a $500 satellite in the FFPC this year where I drafted only 1 RB in the first 7 rounds and he was a big time bust Lamar Miller yet still won it.

I will never forget in 2003 in my first ever high stakes draft I was the only team to go WR/WR/WR/WR to start and only 1 out of the other 71 teams even went WR/WR and I was called dead money on the message board for taking 4 WR's in a row to start the draft. My team was within 1 play of winning the overall championship that year just missing finishing 3rd overall out of the 72 teams losing by 6 pts. Then in 2012 I drafted just 1 RB with my first 6 picks and went on to win $100,000 with that team.

Dude. Just dude.

He can't help it. Just look at his over-the-top sig, which in fact he just updated for us.

 

[Shutout]

I my finals I beat a guy that had ADP, Gore, and Reggie Bush at RB. My RBs for the final were Eddie Lacy and Dennis Johnson.

I really think to be successful in fantasy anymore, you just really need 1 stud RB. I think the days of loading up on RBs are over, especially in PPR.

I actually agree with your thought but, just to mention it:

In the past three years in my most competitive league (16 team dynasty, long-term league, etc), I saw a team win it with Ray Rice only, then saw a team win it with Gore and Reggie Bush, and then saw a team heavy with RBs in McCoy, Murray, and Moreno win it.

I think if you have a well-balanced scoring system, you can skin a cat many ways but for this year, at least, if you had any 2 of those elite 5-6 Rbs, you had a crazy advantage. Partly because you simply had that advantage and partly because the WR eliteness gap wasn't as strong this year as it was the past few years.

 

[Judge Smails]

The LOL is because of the suggestion that you better use your first two, and maybe even three picks on the RB position regardless of value elsewhere. Even reading that sentence makes me LOL.

It is and always will be about production, regardless of position.

What makes it even funnier is the suggestion that if you don't blindly pick RBs with these picks you will miss out on any opportunity to land a top 20 RB. First, looking at ppr scoring (ffpc), I see that Lacy, L. Bell, J. Bell, FJax, Woodhead, PThomas, Bernard and Stacy all finished in the top 20. That is 8 RBs that were picked outside the 3rd round. If my roster is producing monster numbers elsewhere I am more than satisfied with any two of these RBs in my starting lineup. But that is what makes this hobby so interesting, I guess.

Yep - I could completely see how you could say that was my suggestion from the original post - which you probably didn't even read. I never suggested following the run nor did I draft that way. Here was the post. So what was the "suggestion" again? That being said, I promise I'll get thicker skin and get back to servin' up chili!

"Our big money league is very competitive. No guppies. 15+ years playing for a 6K+ pot. Maybe because it's a 6point TD league for all we've never followed the stud RB theory as closely as some others. Sure, the top guys always go in round 1 but top QB's get picked up and there is always a big run in rounds 2 and 3 to nab top WR's. You could always find some depth in rounds 3-5 as guys went after other positions.

Not this year.

HUGE run on RB's.

11 of the 12 picks in the first round:

ADP

Martin

Charles

McCoy

Foster

Spiller

Rice

Calvin

Richardson

Lynch

Morris

Forte

I somewhat expected that, but what I didn't expect was the huge run continuing. SJax at 2.03, CJ at 2.04 - and the kicker - GORE at 2.06. That pick really shifted the draft into a frenzy. Ridley then went 2.08 and MJD 2.11. So when Murray went 3.01, Reggie Bush, 3.04, David Wilson 3.05 there was really nothing after that. Lacy went 3.12. D. Richardson went 4.01, McFadden 4.2, Sproles 4.5, Mathews 4.6, L. Miller 4.10, etc. Bernard from Cincy went 5.1!!!

Never seen anything like it in our league. Guys were hoarding 3 in the their first 3 picks. It was like a RB hurricane warning was announced and the owners raided the convenience and hardware stores to stock up on any living, breathing RB. "

Yes, I read the entire original post, then read it again in this response. Still funny. The suggestion comes from the title of this thread

Running backs - get 'em. Trust me.If you didn't mean to suggest pursuing this strategy then the title is very misleading. Then you go on to say " Guys were hoarding 3 in the their first 3 picks." I wonder where I got the idea that you were suggesting pick RBs with your first three picks. Foolish. But funny.

Ahh. Agree with the title. Intent of the whole post was that RB's were flying off the draft boards faster than at any time I've seen in 15+ years of playing this game. More as a prep that in most leagues, if you think you were going to get a Eddie Lacy in round 5, forget about it. I didn't agree with the mad rush and went Morris, AJ Green and Cruz myself, but was just pointing out the trend in trying to help others who were drafting after me. Not what to do. What to expect. And I think that panned out in the majority of drafts that were posted on this board.

I do think Fantasy Football drafting has continued to change. It wasn't that long ago where the guy that got the first pick in the draft had a huge advantage. In 6 point TD leagues we had guys who drafted Steve Young dominate. Then Priest Holmes. The shift to basically no touching of WR's has made it a passing game, and the shift away from having 1 featured back has made it tougher to have true RB1's. But there is no one formula. I think we'll all agree that it's key to get value in your first several rounds and avoid guys who might be too risky. Even though the guy in our league won after drafting Foster, that is rare. But you have to hit homeruns on your upside and lottery ticket guys. Knowshon, Zac Stacy, Keenan Allen, Josh Gordon, Edelman, Foles, Decker, Antonio Brown - guys that delivered way above their ADP. Take those with a Peyton, McCoy, Charles etc and you have the recipe for a SB team. Lots of different ways to draft and get there.