Running Backs to Exploit and Avoid for 2022 (1 Viewer)

[BobbyLayne]

Last Running Back to finish Top 5 age 26 or older?

LeSean McCoy 2016

Notable running backs who will be over the age of 26 for the 2022 season:

• Alvin Kamara
• Leonard Fournette
• Ezekiel Elliott
• Austin Ekeler
• Dalvin Cook
• James Conner
• Nick Chubb
• Aaron Jones
• Derrick Henry

Dave Kluge @DaveKluge · Apr 22

You mentioned 26 or older but I am pretty sure you meant 27 or older. Ekeler and Connor were Top 5 last year and were 26. Henry and Jones were 26 in 2020. In 2016, McCoy and Murray were 28.

Thanks

As noted in my post, was quoting a FBG staffer and didn't double check the accuracy

 

[jm192]

Rashaad Penny-Let’s talk $$$ and then let’s talk about the Rookie they drafted. Penny was a 1st Rd Draftee and the Seahawks opted to exercise the 5th Year Option and what you have here is a RB age 26 entering his 5th year, will a team pay him Big Bucks in 2023 at the age of 27 to be their starting RB for a 2-3 years because that will be about the shelf life he would have left based on age alone not so much wear and tear. In fact, the $5.5M+ the Seahawks are paying him in 2022 seems to be based largely on their own though vs production since Penny has missed so much time due to injuries. Even his 4 game run at the end of last season which pushed many folks deep into the Playoffs with his surge.

Penny is being paid like a starting RB and since I don’t believe the Seahawks will retain him past 2022, Penny will want to try to replicate some of his heroics in ’21 so he can find a decent contract. If you want to look at it from just that POV, there’s a lot of motivation for him to do well and he has a Rookie behind him that likely will be starting in 2023 just due to economics and how RBs are treated in the NFL. Kenneth Walker is nursing an injury to my knowledge right now and I think they will bring him along slowly, they never rushed or pushed Penny and he missed a lot of time. I’m not predicting that with Walker who is going to be a terrific RB at some point but I see them being cautious early in the season and likely more touches will be had in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th month of the season. And with Penny’s injury history you might be wise to back him up quickly. The fact is you are not having to get Penny in the early rounds and he could come out in September getting a lot of touches early in the season. But the back 8-9 games of the season I can see a bigger split of perhaps 60/40 and since Penny is not likely retained, why would Seattle want to risk a lot of injury with Walker as he learns the ropes?

Overall, I am not a fan of the Seattle Offense but mostly because of the QB, there is talent at WR and TE, this could be a surprise team in terms of Offense. They’re dangerous when they are down 21-7 and have nothing to lose. They still can hand off to Penny running into Nickel and Dime packages trying to cover DK Metcalf and the rest, could be some easy chunks there for guys like Penny. You could do a lot worse down here but overall the Seahawks Offense is going to be Bottom 10 when you look around at what other teams are wheeling out. Health with Penny would be main concern for Redraft ’22…I don’t care about 2023 right now so Penny should elevate above this draft spot.

It's certainly a double edged sword, but I really like Penny now that Walker's had to have surgery.

Everything I've read in regards to this backfield was they want to give it to Penny 20 times a game. And that was before Walker had surgery. I fully believe the work load will be there. He's never held up for a full season. It's hard to believe he will this year. But if you're getting him round 7/8/9, I don't mind the injury risk so much.

 

[jm192]

Nick Chubb-The issue I have is not his talent but he never seems to get enough touches over an entire season to exploit his potential. 2019-1772yds/8Tds on 334 touches and then injuries have limited him to 206 and 248 the last 2 seasons and also sharing some time with Kareem Hunt who is actively seeking a trade OUT of Cleveland. The Browns seem to have a never ending stable of RBs that look great every time they step on the field. You wonder why they don’t try and run the Wishbone?

I try and talk myself into Chubb being a 1st Rd Rb when I watch him play but the reality is Cleveland will be without a major weapon at QB. Things could change between now and say Week 1-2-3 but at the moment I think you could find better options or selections that will result in more steady production. Teams are going to try and dare the Browns into throwing the football until Watson returns Dec 4th.

The talent is there with Chubb and he looks sensational at times. The actual scoreboard says you might have challenges expecting 300+ touches and even if that is the case, you could see a drop off in ypc and yds per touch overall.

I've loved Chubb in previous years. I agree 100% with your take here. Even going mid-late 2nd round, I don't feel excited to draft him. Feels like his efficiency is going to fall off quite a bit given the QB situation. Cleveland may wind up in a lot of close grind it out games. Or they may struggle to put up points to such an extent that they're frequently behind and left passing. And Hunt will be in for more of those situations than not.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Last Running Back to finish Top 5 age 26 or older?

LeSean McCoy 2016

Notable running backs who will be over the age of 26 for the 2022 season:

• Alvin Kamara
• Leonard Fournette
• Ezekiel Elliott
• Austin Ekeler
• Dalvin Cook
• James Conner
• Nick Chubb
• Aaron Jones
• Derrick Henry

Dave Kluge @DaveKluge · Apr 22

This is awesome Bobby, how do you take any of those names when the trend is what you posted?

I can live without most of them and can argue a bunch of reasons why on top of age... Kamara WILL be without Payton, Fournette has never been a good wire to wire RB, Zeke looks old and tired of hearing about hampering injuries, Cook misses time, Conner managed to stay pretty healthy last year, Chubb doesn't get enough touches, Jones shares time and Henry has a lot of wear and tear. Those are just flippant quick takes but I zoned in on Najee Harris near the top of the Draft and some of the appeal is how young he is and only entering Year 2 and expecting him to see a LION's SHARE of the touches at RB. The Steelers' OL is terrible from what I am reading, would like that to get figured out.

I don't have hesitancy on drafting any of those guys. At current ADP I probably prefer Dillon over Jones, Hunt over Chubb, Pollard over Zeke. I'll probably go heavy receiver with a hero RB and backfill RBs in the middle rounds (I have the 11th pick w/ no 3RR.)

 

[Ministry of Pain]

For those a little wary of Swift at his price, Jamaal Malik Williams is a fairly cheap handcuff.

That's not very comforting, Williams is about 4.2 yds per touch and that's on the lower end for RBs that would be thrust into being a starter. You're right about the cheap handcuff but I don't think you want to start Williams very often. That's where you must take that RB-Flex you have been relying on and promote him to RB1 or RB2 slot and shuffle your roster around.

I guess I am saying that there better be a back up plan that is more complete than taking Williams late as the handcuff. Swift and and RB2 and then a committee of RBs for Flex and Spot starts with the hope one of them breaks out and makes you start them on your line up.

 

[nightmare]

Rashaad Penny is a unrestricted Free agent after this season.

 

[foxco]

Great thread MOP, love the info here.

Crazy how short a lifespan RBs have as top level producers, they are the mayflies of the NFL.

I pick 9th & 11th in my redrafts and Kamara is probably my guy if he's there.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Rashaad Penny-Let’s talk $$$ and then let’s talk about the Rookie they drafted. Penny was a 1st Rd Draftee and the Seahawks opted to exercise the 5th Year Option and what you have here is a RB age 26 entering his 5th year, will a team pay him Big Bucks in 2023 at the age of 27 to be their starting RB for a 2-3 years because that will be about the shelf life he would have left based on age alone not so much wear and tear. In fact, the $5.5M+ the Seahawks are paying him in 2022 seems to be based largely on their own though vs production since Penny has missed so much time due to injuries. Even his 4 game run at the end of last season which pushed many folks deep into the Playoffs with his surge.

Penny is being paid like a starting RB and since I don’t believe the Seahawks will retain him past 2022, Penny will want to try to replicate some of his heroics in ’21 so he can find a decent contract. If you want to look at it from just that POV, there’s a lot of motivation for him to do well and he has a Rookie behind him that likely will be starting in 2023 just due to economics and how RBs are treated in the NFL. Kenneth Walker is nursing an injury to my knowledge right now and I think they will bring him along slowly, they never rushed or pushed Penny and he missed a lot of time. I’m not predicting that with Walker who is going to be a terrific RB at some point but I see them being cautious early in the season and likely more touches will be had in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th month of the season. And with Penny’s injury history you might be wise to back him up quickly. The fact is you are not having to get Penny in the early rounds and he could come out in September getting a lot of touches early in the season. But the back 8-9 games of the season I can see a bigger split of perhaps 60/40 and since Penny is not likely retained, why would Seattle want to risk a lot of injury with Walker as he learns the ropes?

Overall, I am not a fan of the Seattle Offense but mostly because of the QB, there is talent at WR and TE, this could be a surprise team in terms of Offense. They’re dangerous when they are down 21-7 and have nothing to lose. They still can hand off to Penny running into Nickel and Dime packages trying to cover DK Metcalf and the rest, could be some easy chunks there for guys like Penny. You could do a lot worse down here but overall the Seahawks Offense is going to be Bottom 10 when you look around at what other teams are wheeling out. Health with Penny would be main concern for Redraft ’22…I don’t care about 2023 right now so Penny should elevate above this draft spot.

It's certainly a double edged sword, but I really like Penny now that Walker's had to have surgery.

Everything I've read in regards to this backfield was they want to give it to Penny 20 times a game. And that was before Walker had surgery. I fully believe the work load will be there. He's never held up for a full season. It's hard to believe he will this year. But if you're getting him round 7/8/9, I don't mind the injury risk so much.

Seattle is saying despite surgery he can play Week1...yeah right. I wouldn't be shocked if we see very little of Walker until he is completely healthy, not being pushed because they are so desperate at RB. In fact their other RBs if they still are on the roster, both Homer and Dallas are decent players and have been in the system for a little while, there's just not a desperate need to play Walker. I'm sure he will see plenty of action but early on it should be the Penny show for a few weeks at least.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Do people bother with drafting handcuffs?

I think about it in terms of what each RB's role is expected to be. Since I'm in full PPR, I like drafting guys who will see targets. I can't predict TDs and half the league is a timeshare backfield these days.

1. one hero RB I know will see consistent touches
2. 6th/7th round - timeshare RB who will get a lot of targets - Edmonds. Hunt, Pollard
3. the remaining RBs (3-4) will be guys with a clearly defined role (3rd down back like James Cook or Hines or Gainwell or McKIssic) or has a path to upside (Brian Robinson or Allgeier) or could see more touches if the star falters or is injured (Carter or Herbert)

Drafts are fluid, but generally I'm only drafting 1-2 RBs the first 5 rounds and then backfilling later. In our setup (start 3 WR + W/R/T Flex) I want premium WRs on the front half. After the first 8-10 RBs there's too much uncertainty so I'm happy pivoting until the draft is up to around RB25 or so.

 

[Leroy Hoard]

For those a little wary of Swift at his price, Jamaal Malik Williams is a fairly cheap handcuff.

That's not very comforting, Williams is about 4.2 yds per touch and that's on the lower end for RBs that would be thrust into being a starter. You're right about the cheap handcuff but I don't think you want to start Williams very often. That's where you must take that RB-Flex you have been relying on and promote him to RB1 or RB2 slot and shuffle your roster around.

I guess I am saying that there better be a back up plan that is more complete than taking Williams late as the handcuff. Swift and and RB2 and then a committee of RBs for Flex and Spot starts with the hope one of them breaks out and makes you start them on your line up.

I'm also looking at which teams run the ball a lot. The Lions will be running no matter who is in the backfield.

Do people bother with drafting handcuffs?

I think about it in terms of what each RB's role is expected to be. Since I'm in full PPR, I like drafting guys who will see targets. I can't predict TDs and half the league is a timeshare backfield these days.

1. one hero RB I know will see consistent touches
2. 6th/7th round - timeshare RB who will get a lot of targets - Edmonds. Hunt, Pollard
3. the remaining RBs (3-4) will be guys with a clearly defined role (3rd down back like James Cook or Hines or Gainwell or McKIssic) or has a path to upside (Brian Robinson or Allgeier) or could see more touches if the star falters or is injured (Carter or Herbert)

Drafts are fluid, but generally I'm only drafting 1-2 RBs the first 5 rounds and then backfilling later. In our setup (start 3 WR + W/R/T Flex) I want premium WRs on the front half. After the first 8-10 RBs there's too much uncertainty so I'm happy pivoting until the draft is up to around RB25 or so.

I'm in a small league with big rosters so it's an easy stash like someone on I.R.

 

[Anarchy99]

Damien Harris-Fresh of 1,000+ yds and 15 TD last season in a mini-breakout year for him. Year 4 of his Rookie deal and not likely to be retained. The Patriots also have a strong RB behind him in Stevenson. I don’t have a lot to say about Harris and the Pats’ Offense which is being led by Matt Patricia. I am not a fan of this offense and what I am watching. Mac Jones was efficient as a Rookie and will likely get better but his weapons are lacking right now except for his backfield which has a few guys walking around with real potential. Harris only touched the ball 220 times last year but managed 15 Touchdowns! What if that trims back to 8? I have nothing concrete to say that will happen but Stevenson is going to see the ball even more than he did last year. They combined for 367 touches which is what you would see from the RB1 if they were lead back on a run first type team but New England uses more of an RBBC and no problems playing the hot hand if any of them are breaking tackles.

To muddy things up further the Pats have Pierre Strong they took and he looks great in camp. I believe Strong will see a limited number of touches his rookie year but in 2023 you will see something more like Stevenson 45%, Strong 30%, RB 3/4 the other 25% or some variant but I do not expect Harris to be retained. But I do feel they will use Harris plenty this season since they aren’t likely to resign him. Another 1,000 yds and perhaps 8-10 TDs are not unreasonable and for where you can grab him, you might have another one of those floaters at RBBC if you waited.

Rhamondre Stevenson-133/600+ yds on the ground 4.6 ypc behind an average OL, 147 touches and 5 TDs as a rookie behind an RB1 that saw 15 rush TDs. Plenty of red zone looks at the goal line to go around as the patriots are one of the more committed to the ground game and how important it is for Mac Jones as a young NFL QB. Unless Rhamondre or Damien Harris suddenly become unavailable for a long stretch, you are always going to be limited in what these guys can do. I also think New England will take a step back this year and miss the Playoffs. Maybe 8-9 record and look decent or win a few games they shouldn’t because they have a Hall of Fame head Coach but that’s not a reason to grab both Stevenson and Harris, that might be a tough juggle week to week but the investment is not that high so it’s understandable why many are gravitating towards one or the other as a possible value around this section.

I love the thread but felt compelled to round this out a little. From the midpoint of the season on, RS actually had more touches than DH did. I posted in other threads that NE RB's generally haven't gone back-to-back seasons with double digit TD. BJGE was the only one in the past 15 seasons, and that was 10 years ago.

Not sure where you say that Strong has looked great in camp. Reports are that he hasn't shown much as of yet and there has been talk of whether he will make the final roster, if they can get him onto the practice squad, or if they might put him on IR to stash him until next season.

It's funny how people perceive things. There isn't anything that Harris does poorly. He's led all NE RB in receptions this training camp. He plays hard and fights for every yard. But Stevenson will go out and make people miss on some plays and people are wowed . . . even if the cumulative stats show Harris might be more productive. RS had one of the highest missed tackle rates in the league last year,

Both Harris and Stevenson should see more targets when they are in the game, and both could stay on the field in third and short. But the receiving back on passing downs / hurry up / two-minute situations will most likely be Ty Montgomery.

Blending all that together, if one of DH or RS is out, the other guy should be considered a Top 5-10 RB that week. And if one of them had a long-term injury, the healthy one would be fantasy gold. That isn't always the case when another back takes over.

Given that Harris is typically getting picked up in the RB 28-20 range and Stevenson drafted in the 30-34 range (basically Rounds 7 / 8 / 9 in 12-team redraft leagues), if a savvy owner loaded up on other spots early, there are worse things to do then play both guys with a WR heavy roster. And as I just mentioned, if one is out, the other guy is gold. Once Stevenson got into the mix in October, there were 4 games when only one of the two played. In standard / 0 PPR scoring, the guy that played scored 23.3, 23.4, 4.0, and 28.3 fantasy points (an average of 19.8 points). On a per game basis, only Taylor and Henry averaged more than that. I expect Stevenson will earn more touches as the season progresses, but the fact that there are two guys is pushing the ADP of both guys down. I haven't looked at many recent drafts and maybe both guys are going earlier than the range I gave, but both look like decent investments if you can get them in rounds 7-9.

 

[Nick Vermeil]

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Damien Harris-Fresh of 1,000+ yds and 15 TD last season in a mini-breakout year for him. Year 4 of his Rookie deal and not likely to be retained. The Patriots also have a strong RB behind him in Stevenson. I don’t have a lot to say about Harris and the Pats’ Offense which is being led by Matt Patricia. I am not a fan of this offense and what I am watching. Mac Jones was efficient as a Rookie and will likely get better but his weapons are lacking right now except for his backfield which has a few guys walking around with real potential. Harris only touched the ball 220 times last year but managed 15 Touchdowns! What if that trims back to 8? I have nothing concrete to say that will happen but Stevenson is going to see the ball even more than he did last year. They combined for 367 touches which is what you would see from the RB1 if they were lead back on a run first type team but New England uses more of an RBBC and no problems playing the hot hand if any of them are breaking tackles.

To muddy things up further the Pats have Pierre Strong they took and he looks great in camp. I believe Strong will see a limited number of touches his rookie year but in 2023 you will see something more like Stevenson 45%, Strong 30%, RB 3/4 the other 25% or some variant but I do not expect Harris to be retained. But I do feel they will use Harris plenty this season since they aren’t likely to resign him. Another 1,000 yds and perhaps 8-10 TDs are not unreasonable and for where you can grab him, you might have another one of those floaters at RBBC if you waited.

Rhamondre Stevenson-133/600+ yds on the ground 4.6 ypc behind an average OL, 147 touches and 5 TDs as a rookie behind an RB1 that saw 15 rush TDs. Plenty of red zone looks at the goal line to go around as the patriots are one of the more committed to the ground game and how important it is for Mac Jones as a young NFL QB. Unless Rhamondre or Damien Harris suddenly become unavailable for a long stretch, you are always going to be limited in what these guys can do. I also think New England will take a step back this year and miss the Playoffs. Maybe 8-9 record and look decent or win a few games they shouldn’t because they have a Hall of Fame head Coach but that’s not a reason to grab both Stevenson and Harris, that might be a tough juggle week to week but the investment is not that high so it’s understandable why many are gravitating towards one or the other as a possible value around this section.

I love the thread but felt compelled to round this out a little. From the midpoint of the season on, RS actually had more touches than DH did. I posted in other threads that NE RB's generally haven't gone back-to-back seasons with double digit TD. BJGE was the only one in the past 15 seasons, and that was 10 years ago.

Not sure where you say that Strong has looked great in camp. Reports are that he hasn't shown much as of yet and there has been talk of whether he will make the final roster, if they can get him onto the practice squad, or if they might put him on IR to stash him until next season.

It's funny how people perceive things. There isn't anything that Harris does poorly. He's led all NE RB in receptions this training camp. He plays hard and fights for every yard. But Stevenson will go out and make people miss on some plays and people are wowed . . . even if the cumulative stats show Harris might be more productive. RS had one of the highest missed tackle rates in the league last year,

Both Harris and Stevenson should see more targets when they are in the game, and both could stay on the field in third and short. But the receiving back on passing downs / hurry up / two-minute situations will most likely be Ty Montgomery.

Blending all that together, if one of DH or RS is out, the other guy should be considered a Top 5-10 RB that week. And if one of them had a long-term injury, the healthy one would be fantasy gold. That isn't always the case when another back takes over.

Given that Harris is typically getting picked up in the RB 28-20 range and Stevenson drafted in the 30-34 range (basically Rounds 7 / 8 / 9 in 12-team redraft leagues), if a savvy owner loaded up on other spots early, there are worse things to do then play both guys with a WR heavy roster. And as I just mentioned, if one is out, the other guy is gold. Once Stevenson got into the mix in October, there were 4 games when only one of the two played. In standard / 0 PPR scoring, the guy that played scored 23.3, 23.4, 4.0, and 28.3 fantasy points (an average of 19.8 points). On a per game basis, only Taylor and Henry averaged more than that. I expect Stevenson will earn more touches as the season progresses, but the fact that there are two guys is pushing the ADP of both guys down. I haven't looked at many recent drafts and maybe both guys are going earlier than the range I gave, but both look like decent investments if you can get them in rounds 7-9.

This is great.

Harris still only got 220 touches and it would be interesting I guess if you have both, not a bad strategy. Harris was pretty consistent, his TDs didn't all come in a 3-4 weeks span. Stevenson looked terrific and is fun to watch. Didn't know Strong was a longshot to make the roster but with Harris and Stevenson in front of him, doubt he would see much action in 2022.

Any trepidations about Matt Patricia running the offense?

 

[BobbyLayne]

For those a little wary of Swift at his price, Jamaal Malik Williams is a fairly cheap handcuff.

That's not very comforting, Williams is about 4.2 yds per touch and that's on the lower end for RBs that would be thrust into being a starter. You're right about the cheap handcuff but I don't think you want to start Williams very often. That's where you must take that RB-Flex you have been relying on and promote him to RB1 or RB2 slot and shuffle your roster around.

I guess I am saying that there better be a back up plan that is more complete than taking Williams late as the handcuff. Swift and and RB2 and then a committee of RBs for Flex and Spot starts with the hope one of them breaks out and makes you start them on your line up.

I'm also looking at which teams run the ball a lot. The Lions will be running no matter who is in the backfield.

Do people bother with drafting handcuffs?

I think about it in terms of what each RB's role is expected to be. Since I'm in full PPR, I like drafting guys who will see targets. I can't predict TDs and half the league is a timeshare backfield these days.

1. one hero RB I know will see consistent touches
2. 6th/7th round - timeshare RB who will get a lot of targets - Edmonds. Hunt, Pollard
3. the remaining RBs (3-4) will be guys with a clearly defined role (3rd down back like James Cook or Hines or Gainwell or McKIssic) or has a path to upside (Brian Robinson or Allgeier) or could see more touches if the star falters or is injured (Carter or Herbert)

Drafts are fluid, but generally I'm only drafting 1-2 RBs the first 5 rounds and then backfilling later. In our setup (start 3 WR + W/R/T Flex) I want premium WRs on the front half. After the first 8-10 RBs there's too much uncertainty so I'm happy pivoting until the draft is up to around RB25 or so.

I'm in a small league with big rosters so it's an easy stash like someone on I.R.

Yeah we have 18 with two IR spots (can’t be used for suspensions) - personally I’m not interested in “locking up” a backfield. I pick a winner & if I’m wrong I cut bait. Hate RBBC roster cloggers, rather be sitting on lottery tickets that might break out late.

Usually draft 6-7 RBs and sometimes I’ll have 8 or 9 including the IR spot. Just need one of them to be right for the playoffs.

 

[Anarchy99]

I've already spent too much time in this thread, but back when I did extensive research on RB's, prior year workload (350+ touches including post season) was a good predictor of an upcoming breakdown. Part of the reason older backs generally struggle to rank in the Top 5 is they often aren't on the field for every game.

The RB landscape has changed a lot in the past 10 years. I know I am changing the goalposts a little but here were the number of backs ranking in the Top 10 in PPG for 1 PPR scoring over the past 10 seasons that were 27 or older:

2021 - 1
2020 - 0
2019 - 0
2018 - 0
2017 - 2
2016 - 2
2015 - 5
2014 - 5
2013 - 5
2012 - 2

Once the crop of older backs aged out, they were replaced with rookies that were way younger. Until those guys get older (which is about where we are now in their timeline), it will appear on the surface that only younger guys are Top 5-10 candidates. I suspect we will see more 27+ aged backs get back on the list this year or next.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I think about it in terms of what each RB's role is expected to be. Since I'm in full PPR, I like drafting guys who will see targets. I can't predict TDs and half the league is a timeshare backfield these days.

1. one hero RB I know will see consistent touches
2. 6th/7th round - timeshare RB who will get a lot of targets - Edmonds. Hunt, Pollard
3. the remaining RBs (3-4) will be guys with a clearly defined role (3rd down back like James Cook or Hines or Gainwell or McKIssic) or has a path to upside (Brian Robinson or Allgeier) or could see more touches if the star falters or is injured (Carter or Herbert)

Drafts are fluid, but generally I'm only drafting 1-2 RBs the first 5 rounds and then backfilling later. In our setup (start 3 WR + W/R/T Flex) I want premium WRs on the front half. After the first 8-10 RBs there's too much uncertainty so I'm happy pivoting until the draft is up to around RB25 or so.

I like this as one of several plans depending on what players come off the board. Last season, I did not do a great job of drafting a quality RB2 or RBBC to fill in for RB2 and sometimes a Flex. I struggled all season, this year I feel more confident there are strong RBs to be had a little later.

Akers, Mitchell, Monty, Dev Singletary and I am starting to warm up to Tony Pollard with the departure of Cooper and Wilson, grab a couple of these guys if you can to go with 1 Big RB somewhere in the first 2-3 rounds and you should be one of the stronger teams at the RB/WR spots but you might have to sacrifice at TE and take a QB in the 9-12 range.

 

[Anarchy99]

Any trepidations about Matt Patricia running the offense?

I don't actually believe Patricia is running the offense. I think it is a collaborative effort and BB is the prime play caller and game planner. I do have concerns that the OL is working out a lot of kinks and their attempt to install a zone blocking scheme isn't going well. The defense is also expected to be weaker. Based on that, I think NE will be a more pass dependent team than most are predicting. We saw a similar trend with Brady in Year 2 when his attempts went from 413 to 601. Jones had 521 attempts last year. Every team wants to be successful, but if you struggle to run and get behind, you have to pass more. It would not shock me if NE had to pass a lot more to stay competitive . . . and I can see Jones with 600+ attempts. Most projections have Jones between 530-540 attempts.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Any trepidations about Matt Patricia running the offense?

I don't actually believe Patricia is running the offense. I think it is a collaborative effort and BB is the prime play caller and game planner. I do have concerns that the OL is working out a lot of kinks and their attempt to install a zone blocking scheme isn't going well. The defense is also expected to be weaker. Based on that, I think NE will be a more pass dependent team than most are predicting. We saw a similar trend with Brady in Year 2 when his attempts went from 413 to 601. Jones had 521 attempts last year. Every team wants to be successful, but if you struggle to run and get behind, you have to pass more. It would not shock me if NE had to pass a lot more to stay competitive . . . and I can see Jones with 600+ attempts. Most projections have Jones between 530-540 attempts.

Wouldn't that have a pretty big impact on this Harris/Stevenson duo we are talking up here?

 

[Anarchy99]

Any trepidations about Matt Patricia running the offense?

I don't actually believe Patricia is running the offense. I think it is a collaborative effort and BB is the prime play caller and game planner. I do have concerns that the OL is working out a lot of kinks and their attempt to install a zone blocking scheme isn't going well. The defense is also expected to be weaker. Based on that, I think NE will be a more pass dependent team than most are predicting. We saw a similar trend with Brady in Year 2 when his attempts went from 413 to 601. Jones had 521 attempts last year. Every team wants to be successful, but if you struggle to run and get behind, you have to pass more. It would not shock me if NE had to pass a lot more to stay competitive . . . and I can see Jones with 600+ attempts. Most projections have Jones between 530-540 attempts.

Wouldn't that have a pretty big impact on this Harris/Stevenson duo we are talking up here?

It could . . . but both should be more involved in the passing game. NE has been practicing with a lot more passes to guys out of the backfield. Part of the issue is they don't have much of a deep threat. Thornton was taking on that role and was opening up some space at the line, but he is out for September (at least). I will give BB the benefit of the doubt in that he won't call plays that he knows won't work well in actual games. So I think they will continue to work on the ZBS stuff in practice and start introducing it when they can run it well.

I have heard the OL has had issues in camp, but they have had guys out with injuries, they've mixed and matched, they've held guys out, etc. The point being, I can't tell how big an issue it will be given that they are always playing with a different combination of guys and their long-time OL and RB coaches have retired. Wehn and if the run blocking improves is a bit of a mystery.

 

[VikingFrog]

Tony Pollard

I assume the Tyron Smith injury might affect this thought process.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Tony Pollard

I assume the Tyron Smith injury might affect this thought process.

I was reading about that this morning, this brings up a great time to discuss Tackles vs IOL or Guards and Center.

-When an OT be it the Left or Right is injured and the back up Tackle has to play meaningful snaps, it impacts the down field passing. The QB assuming they are pocket passers, will not have enough time to drop back because they are now having pressure come from around the end and the pushes them up into the center and quickens the release impacting the timing.

-Usually OG and OC that make up the IOL do not yield a ton of sacks. If a Nose Tackle on 1st Down is blowing thru the A-Gap of the interior, you have major problems. Usually OL with better footwork and more nimble tend to play on the outside at Tackle.

-An injury at OG/OC IMO usually impacts the RB the worst.

-Smith's injury will hurt Dak Prescott the most IMHO, because it will force him to get rid of the ball quicker since Smith plays Left tackle, Dak's blind side.

Does that help at all or explain how I view the OL and how injuries impact them?

 

[VikingFrog]

Tony Pollard

I assume the Tyron Smith injury might affect this thought process.

I was reading about that this morning, this brings up a great time to discuss Tackles vs IOL or Guards and Center.

-When an OT be it the Left or Right is injured and the back up Tackle has to play meaningful snaps, it impacts the down field passing. The QB assuming they are pocket passers, will not have enough time to drop back because they are now having pressure come from around the end and the pushes them up into the center and quickens the release impacting the timing.

-Usually OG and OC that make up the IOL do not yield a ton of sacks. If a Nose Tackle on 1st Down is blowing thru the A-Gap of the interior, you have major problems. Usually OL with better footwork and more nimble tend to play on the outside at Tackle.

-An injury at OG/OC IMO usually impacts the RB the worst.

-Smith's injury will hurt Dak Prescott the most IMHO, because it will force him to get rid of the ball quicker since Smith plays Left tackle, Dak's blind side.

Does that help at all or explain how I view the OL and how injuries impact them?

Yea thank you.

I was under the impression that Pollard was more of an outside runner… so thought it might affect that. But I’m not an expert at offensive line, so I appreciate the insight.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Tony Pollard

I assume the Tyron Smith injury might affect this thought process.

I was reading about that this morning, this brings up a great time to discuss Tackles vs IOL or Guards and Center.

-When an OT be it the Left or Right is injured and the back up Tackle has to play meaningful snaps, it impacts the down field passing. The QB assuming they are pocket passers, will not have enough time to drop back because they are now having pressure come from around the end and the pushes them up into the center and quickens the release impacting the timing.

-Usually OG and OC that make up the IOL do not yield a ton of sacks. If a Nose Tackle on 1st Down is blowing thru the A-Gap of the interior, you have major problems. Usually OL with better footwork and more nimble tend to play on the outside at Tackle.

-An injury at OG/OC IMO usually impacts the RB the worst.

-Smith's injury will hurt Dak Prescott the most IMHO, because it will force him to get rid of the ball quicker since Smith plays Left tackle, Dak's blind side.

Does that help at all or explain how I view the OL and how injuries impact them?

Yea thank you.

I was under the impression that Pollard was more of an outside runner… so thought it might affect that. But I’m not an expert at offensive line, so I appreciate the insight.

You bring up an excellent point about the outside running but it could be countered with more dump off and shorter passes by Dak Prescott and that would likely mean more catches for Pollard.
A guy that doesn't figure to see a lot of touches inside the Tackles but that also can be a giveaway to a Defense that they don't need to worry about stopping thr run in the middle vs Zeke Elliot who makes a living in there.

 

[Chaka]

Tony Pollard

I assume the Tyron Smith injury might affect this thought process.

I was reading about that this morning, this brings up a great time to discuss Tackles vs IOL or Guards and Center.

-When an OT be it the Left or Right is injured and the back up Tackle has to play meaningful snaps, it impacts the down field passing. The QB assuming they are pocket passers, will not have enough time to drop back because they are now having pressure come from around the end and the pushes them up into the center and quickens the release impacting the timing.

-Usually OG and OC that make up the IOL do not yield a ton of sacks. If a Nose Tackle on 1st Down is blowing thru the A-Gap of the interior, you have major problems. Usually OL with better footwork and more nimble tend to play on the outside at Tackle.

-An injury at OG/OC IMO usually impacts the RB the worst.

-Smith's injury will hurt Dak Prescott the most IMHO, because it will force him to get rid of the ball quicker since Smith plays Left tackle, Dak's blind side.

Does that help at all or explain how I view the OL and how injuries impact them?

I would suggest that it also allows defenses to commit fewer resources to outside pass rush & contain allowing them more opportunities to defeat the offensive scheme regardless of run or pass play call.

ETA: The bottom line is losing your best OL hurts the whole offense no matter what.

 

[BobbyLayne]

Tyron injury worse than originally reported.

[Rapoport] Cowboys standout LT Tyron Smith actually suffered an avulsion fracture of the knee, meaning the hamstring tendon that sits at the back of the knee pulled off the bone and he needs surgery, sources say. If he’s back at all, it’ll be December. A tough loss.

The Cowboys don’t have a good swing T so they’re kind of ****ed. Josh Ball hasn’t played a down, Matt Waletzko and Aviante Collins are a bad idea, Tyler Smith is competing at LG bc excessive penalties,

Maybe sign Eric Fisher, Jason Peters, Nate Solder or Darryl Williams.

 

[Gatorman]

MOP _ nice thread.

I agree with you on at the top of the draft especially with Mixon and Najee, although a bad O line is never a good thing for a RB. Najee may work around it bc I think the QB there will scramble enough to keep drives alive (something big ben could no longer do).

I disagree on Saquon. Injuries happen to the best of them, but he is still young and much like Dalvin early, once those injuries solve themselves that's how you win a league. Guy also has the ability to house it from any spot on the field and not many RBs can say that.

I think that Akers is an interesting bet as well especially since the backfield has narrowed a bit vs the last few years for the rams.

New England backfield: I see the pats being behind a lot this year. That is likely going to put Ty Monty on the field a good amount. Miami and Bills D is no joke this year and their offense is having the "growing pains" issue which means they are going to have to go hurry up at some point. I could see making a bet of both RBs (harris/RS) if you hold the right turn picks.

I like singletary but their best weapon on the ground is Josh Allen.

 

[Buck Bradcanon]

I disagree on Saquon. Injuries happen to the best of them, but he is still young and much like Dalvin early, once those injuries solve themselves that's how you win a league. Guy also has the ability to house it from any spot on the field and not many RBs can say that.

I love Saquon this year. Getting him in the 2nd feels like a cheat code!

 

[Ilov80s]

Do people bother with drafting handcuffs?

I think about it in terms of what each RB's role is expected to be. Since I'm in full PPR, I like drafting guys who will see targets. I can't predict TDs and half the league is a timeshare backfield these days.

1. one hero RB I know will see consistent touches
2. 6th/7th round - timeshare RB who will get a lot of targets - Edmonds. Hunt, Pollard
3. the remaining RBs (3-4) will be guys with a clearly defined role (3rd down back like James Cook or Hines or Gainwell or McKIssic) or has a path to upside (Brian Robinson or Allgeier) or could see more touches if the star falters or is injured (Carter or Herbert)

Drafts are fluid, but generally I'm only drafting 1-2 RBs the first 5 rounds and then backfilling later. In our setup (start 3 WR + W/R/T Flex) I want premium WRs on the front half. After the first 8-10 RBs there's too much uncertainty so I'm happy pivoting until the draft is up to around RB25 or so.

I try to avoid handcuff RBs unless it's the final couple rounds when there aren't many options available anyway. Plus, the last couple picks are usually the guys that get dropped early in the season anyway so why not roster a backup for a week or 2 to see if there is an injury.

 

[Ilov80s]

Travis Etienne-I’m a little surprised a guy that missed his entire Rookie Year and seemed as though nobody knew how he would be utilized, how can that guy go in the Top 20 RBs this year? I understand that many feel the new Head Coach and a Top Draft pick at QB going into his 2nd season, there should be some normalcy around Jacksonville this year. It’s hard to predict numbers or usage since there isn’t a track record here so most folks are shooting in the dark but pinning their hopes that Etienne will be on the field a lot more and since Jacksonville figures to be behind a lot, Travis is going to see a lot of targets out of the back field. James Robinson should not be discounted between the Tackles and at some point being the lead back on running plays. Etienne has possibilities but you are taking a lot of risk here.

I think there are 6 clear reasons why ETN is deserving of being in that RB15-20 range.

1. 1st round draft pick.
2. Elite college career in terms of production and efficiency.
3. Prototypical size and athleticism
4. Lance Zierlein is as seasoned a college scout as we have in the media and he gave ETN the 8th highest film score he's ever given for a RB behind Saquon, Zeke, Fournette, Dalvin, Gordon, Gurley and Swift. Pretty nice company there.
5. Stiffest backfield competition is a guy in the last year of his contract trying to make a near historic recovery from a catastrophic injury.
6. He is tied to the QB who has demonstrated a willingness to pass him the ball regularly and who also happens to be an elite NFL QB prospect.

I don't think ETN ever becomes a Zeke or Najee kind of workhorse. I think players like Aaron Jones, Kamara, Swift and Ekeler show the path to major upside that ETN has in front of him.

 

[Team Chaos]

Great Thread MoP. Thanks!

 

[zamboni]

D.Henry-Last season was a big disappointment for Henry, those who drafted him and of course the Titans in general did not achieve what they did the season prior and now have a potential QB controversy brewing on the horizon. If you believe Henry will be upright and if you think like most RBs, all of them spend some part of at least 1-2 seasons battling injuries and disappointing early 1st Rd Drafters. You know what you are getting with him but he also will not have as many weapons at WR stretching the field. I like Henry and am happy he isn’t going #1 Overall any more. I’m not itching to draft him but short of injury he is still running strong. He turns 29 in January so he will be living his 30th Year when he takes hand offs in 2023 if you need to be scared of how age impacts RBs

Great thread as always, MoP.

Henry scares me more than anyone this year near the top. Injuries can happen to anyone, but the wear and tear is a big red flag, as is the fact that, for PPR leagues, he rarely catches passes. The only guy with that kind of wear and tear is Zeke, but he doesn't cost nearly as much.

 

[Gatorman]

Travis Etienne-I’m a little surprised a guy that missed his entire Rookie Year and seemed as though nobody knew how he would be utilized, how can that guy go in the Top 20 RBs this year? I understand that many feel the new Head Coach and a Top Draft pick at QB going into his 2nd season, there should be some normalcy around Jacksonville this year. It’s hard to predict numbers or usage since there isn’t a track record here so most folks are shooting in the dark but pinning their hopes that Etienne will be on the field a lot more and since Jacksonville figures to be behind a lot, Travis is going to see a lot of targets out of the back field. James Robinson should not be discounted between the Tackles and at some point being the lead back on running plays. Etienne has possibilities but you are taking a lot of risk here.

I think there are 6 clear reasons why ETN is deserving of being in that RB15-20 range.

1. 1st round draft pick.
2. Elite college career in terms of production and efficiency.
3. Prototypical size and athleticism
4. Lance Zierlein is as seasoned a college scout as we have in the media and he gave ETN the 8th highest film score he's ever given for a RB behind Saquon, Zeke, Fournette, Dalvin, Gordon, Gurley and Swift. Pretty nice company there.
5. Stiffest backfield competition is a guy in the last year of his contract trying to make a near historic recovery from a catastrophic injury.
6. He is tied to the QB who has demonstrated a willingness to pass him the ball regularly and who also happens to be an elite NFL QB prospect.

I don't think ETN ever becomes a Zeke or Najee kind of workhorse. I think players like Aaron Jones, Kamara, Swift and Ekeler show the path to major upside that ETN has in front of him.

Don't completely disagree here except Doug Pederson doesn't seem to workhorse his backs, and even when he has tried, they tend to get hurt. He does seem like the most likely "guy I got in the 5th in 2022 who is a first rounder in 2023" kind of season but that whole Offense is a leap of faith this year

 

[Ilov80s]

Don't completely disagree here except Doug Pederson doesn't seem to workhorse his backs, and even when he has tried, they tend to get hurt. He does seem like the most likely "guy I got in the 5th in 2022 who is a first rounder in 2023" kind of season but that whole Offense is a leap of faith this year

Under Pederson:

Jamaal Charles- averaged 15 rushes and 4 receptions a game
Miles Sanders- averaged 12 rushes and 3 receptions a game

I think that is probably what we are looking at for ETN. 15-19 touches works for me as long as he's also getting RZ looks.

 

[TZMarkie]

Don't completely disagree here except Doug Pederson doesn't seem to workhorse his backs, and even when he has tried, they tend to get hurt. He does seem like the most likely "guy I got in the 5th in 2022 who is a first rounder in 2023" kind of season but that whole Offense is a leap of faith this year

Under Pederson:

Jamaal Charles- averaged 15 rushes and 4 receptions a game
Miles Sanders- averaged 12 rushes and 3 receptions a game

I think that is probably what we are looking at for ETN. 15-19 touches works for me as long as he's also getting RZ looks.

I know you are just making a point brother......but don't you dare compare the greatness known as JAMAAL CHARLES to that gimp committee back Miles Sanders.

 

[Anarchy99]

Don't completely disagree here except Doug Pederson doesn't seem to workhorse his backs, and even when he has tried, they tend to get hurt. He does seem like the most likely "guy I got in the 5th in 2022 who is a first rounder in 2023" kind of season but that whole Offense is a leap of faith this year

Under Pederson:

Jamaal Charles- averaged 15 rushes and 4 receptions a game
Miles Sanders- averaged 12 rushes and 3 receptions a game

I think that is probably what we are looking at for ETN. 15-19 touches works for me as long as he's also getting RZ looks.

ETN average 12 carries and 1.8 receptions per game in college playing against inferior competition in 15 games . . . compare that to the talent level on defense in the NFL in a 17-game season. His senior year at Clemson was his least efficient as a runner in his 4 years there. There were only 10 RB in the NFL last year that averaged 15 touches a game and played in at least 14 games. I think you might be wishing him a bigger workload than he will actually see,

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Travis Etienne-I’m a little surprised a guy that missed his entire Rookie Year and seemed as though nobody knew how he would be utilized, how can that guy go in the Top 20 RBs this year? I understand that many feel the new Head Coach and a Top Draft pick at QB going into his 2nd season, there should be some normalcy around Jacksonville this year. It’s hard to predict numbers or usage since there isn’t a track record here so most folks are shooting in the dark but pinning their hopes that Etienne will be on the field a lot more and since Jacksonville figures to be behind a lot, Travis is going to see a lot of targets out of the back field. James Robinson should not be discounted between the Tackles and at some point being the lead back on running plays. Etienne has possibilities but you are taking a lot of risk here.

I think there are 6 clear reasons why ETN is deserving of being in that RB15-20 range.

1. 1st round draft pick.
2. Elite college career in terms of production and efficiency.
3. Prototypical size and athleticism
4. Lance Zierlein is as seasoned a college scout as we have in the media and he gave ETN the 8th highest film score he's ever given for a RB behind Saquon, Zeke, Fournette, Dalvin, Gordon, Gurley and Swift. Pretty nice company there.
5. Stiffest backfield competition is a guy in the last year of his contract trying to make a near historic recovery from a catastrophic injury.
6. He is tied to the QB who has demonstrated a willingness to pass him the ball regularly and who also happens to be an elite NFL QB prospect.

I don't think ETN ever becomes a Zeke or Najee kind of workhorse. I think players like Aaron Jones, Kamara, Swift and Ekeler show the path to major upside that ETN has in front of him.

Great post, will take another look at him. Still feel Jacksonville is trying to crawl out of the 2021 season. Where they should be in 2022, feel like they are just starting out again. Yes, Lawrence had a full season but it didn't feel like he was able to show a lot.

I have a soft and slow approach with the Jags this year. Hope they do well, they deserve better than they got last year but there's a lot of work to do there.

 

[Buckna]

I've already spent too much time in this thread, but back when I did extensive research on RB's, prior year workload (350+ touches including post season) was a good predictor of an upcoming breakdown. Part of the reason older backs generally struggle to rank in the Top 5 is they often aren't on the field for every game.

The RB landscape has changed a lot in the past 10 years. I know I am changing the goalposts a little but here were the number of backs ranking in the Top 10 in PPG for 1 PPR scoring over the past 10 seasons that were 27 or older:

2021 - 1
2020 - 0
2019 - 0
2018 - 0
2017 - 2
2016 - 2
2015 - 5
2014 - 5
2013 - 5
2012 - 2

Once the crop of older backs aged out, they were replaced with rookies that were way younger. Until those guys get older (which is about where we are now in their timeline), it will appear on the surface that only younger guys are Top 5-10 candidates. I suspect we will see more 27+ aged backs get back on the list this year or next.

Was going to say something similar, I think this is somewhat a function that the RB landscape was REALLY poor for a period of time and continues to dwindle. Injuries have taken a rough toll as well (Todd Gurley is only 28 this year and it seems like an age since he was a cornerstone stud RB.) I think from about 2009 to 2014 you have a lot of disappointing RB classes due to lack of talent, outright busts to bad injuries, even a few years in there with zero RBs in the 1st round of the NFL draft. Those would have been the classes of players entering their age 27 and older seasons the past 4 to 5 years.

 

[Buckna]

Rashaad Penny-Let’s talk $$$ and then let’s talk about the Rookie they drafted. Penny was a 1st Rd Draftee and the Seahawks opted to exercise the 5th Year Option and what you have here is a RB age 26 entering his 5th year, will a team pay him Big Bucks in 2023 at the age of 27 to be their starting RB for a 2-3 years because that will be about the shelf life he would have left based on age alone not so much wear and tear. In fact, the $5.5M+ the Seahawks are paying him in 2022 seems to be based largely on their own though vs production since Penny has missed so much time due to injuries. Even his 4 game run at the end of last season which pushed many folks deep into the Playoffs with his surge.

Penny is being paid like a starting RB and since I don’t believe the Seahawks will retain him past 2022, Penny will want to try to replicate some of his heroics in ’21 so he can find a decent contract. If you want to look at it from just that POV, there’s a lot of motivation for him to do well and he has a Rookie behind him that likely will be starting in 2023 just due to economics and how RBs are treated in the NFL. Kenneth Walker is nursing an injury to my knowledge right now and I think they will bring him along slowly, they never rushed or pushed Penny and he missed a lot of time. I’m not predicting that with Walker who is going to be a terrific RB at some point but I see them being cautious early in the season and likely more touches will be had in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th month of the season. And with Penny’s injury history you might be wise to back him up quickly. The fact is you are not having to get Penny in the early rounds and he could come out in September getting a lot of touches early in the season. But the back 8-9 games of the season I can see a bigger split of perhaps 60/40 and since Penny is not likely retained, why would Seattle want to risk a lot of injury with Walker as he learns the ropes?

Overall, I am not a fan of the Seattle Offense but mostly because of the QB, there is talent at WR and TE, this could be a surprise team in terms of Offense. They’re dangerous when they are down 21-7 and have nothing to lose. They still can hand off to Penny running into Nickel and Dime packages trying to cover DK Metcalf and the rest, could be some easy chunks there for guys like Penny. You could do a lot worse down here but overall the Seahawks Offense is going to be Bottom 10 when you look around at what other teams are wheeling out. Health with Penny would be main concern for Redraft ’22…I don’t care about 2023 right now so Penny should elevate above this draft spot.

Minor nitpick, but the Seahawks did not exercise Penny's 5th year option. He was a free agent and they signed him a to 1 year deal in March a few days into Free Agency. Supposedly he took less money to come back and it was also after Wilson was traded so kind of interesting that he did resign with them.

 

[travdogg]

D.Henry-Last season was a big disappointment for Henry, those who drafted him and of course the Titans in general did not achieve what they did the season prior and now have a potential QB controversy brewing on the horizon. If you believe Henry will be upright and if you think like most RBs, all of them spend some part of at least 1-2 seasons battling injuries and disappointing early 1st Rd Drafters. You know what you are getting with him but he also will not have as many weapons at WR stretching the field. I like Henry and am happy he isn’t going #1 Overall any more. I’m not itching to draft him but short of injury he is still running strong. He turns 29 in January so he will be living his 30th Year when he takes hand offs in 2023 if you need to be scared of how age impacts RBs

Great thread as always, MoP.

Henry scares me more than anyone this year near the top. Injuries can happen to anyone, but the wear and tear is a big red flag, as is the fact that, for PPR leagues, he rarely catches passes. The only guy with that kind of wear and tear is Zeke, but he doesn't cost nearly as much.

For what it's worth, Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, and Jonathan Taylor had very similar per game receiving numbers last season. I find myself ending up with Henry in a lot of mocks.

Zeke's issue is more Pollard than anything else I think. If he were still getting Henry's workload I think he might be a 1st rounder still.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Rashaad Penny-Let’s talk $$$ and then let’s talk about the Rookie they drafted. Penny was a 1st Rd Draftee and the Seahawks opted to exercise the 5th Year Option and what you have here is a RB age 26 entering his 5th year, will a team pay him Big Bucks in 2023 at the age of 27 to be their starting RB for a 2-3 years because that will be about the shelf life he would have left based on age alone not so much wear and tear. In fact, the $5.5M+ the Seahawks are paying him in 2022 seems to be based largely on their own though vs production since Penny has missed so much time due to injuries. Even his 4 game run at the end of last season which pushed many folks deep into the Playoffs with his surge.

Penny is being paid like a starting RB and since I don’t believe the Seahawks will retain him past 2022, Penny will want to try to replicate some of his heroics in ’21 so he can find a decent contract. If you want to look at it from just that POV, there’s a lot of motivation for him to do well and he has a Rookie behind him that likely will be starting in 2023 just due to economics and how RBs are treated in the NFL. Kenneth Walker is nursing an injury to my knowledge right now and I think they will bring him along slowly, they never rushed or pushed Penny and he missed a lot of time. I’m not predicting that with Walker who is going to be a terrific RB at some point but I see them being cautious early in the season and likely more touches will be had in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th month of the season. And with Penny’s injury history you might be wise to back him up quickly. The fact is you are not having to get Penny in the early rounds and he could come out in September getting a lot of touches early in the season. But the back 8-9 games of the season I can see a bigger split of perhaps 60/40 and since Penny is not likely retained, why would Seattle want to risk a lot of injury with Walker as he learns the ropes?

Overall, I am not a fan of the Seattle Offense but mostly because of the QB, there is talent at WR and TE, this could be a surprise team in terms of Offense. They’re dangerous when they are down 21-7 and have nothing to lose. They still can hand off to Penny running into Nickel and Dime packages trying to cover DK Metcalf and the rest, could be some easy chunks there for guys like Penny. You could do a lot worse down here but overall the Seahawks Offense is going to be Bottom 10 when you look around at what other teams are wheeling out. Health with Penny would be main concern for Redraft ’22…I don’t care about 2023 right now so Penny should elevate above this draft spot.

Minor nitpick, but the Seahawks did not exercise Penny's 5th year option. He was a free agent and they signed him a to 1 year deal in March a few days into Free Agency. Supposedly he took less money to come back and it was also after Wilson was traded so kind of interesting that he did resign with them.

That's good info and part of why I write this out in the Shark Pool, thanks.

 

[Ilov80s]

ETN average 12 carries and 1.8 receptions per game in college playing against inferior competition in 15 games . . . compare that to the talent level on defense in the NFL in a 17-game season. His senior year at Clemson was his least efficient as a runner in his 4 years there. There were only 10 RB in the NFL last year that averaged 15 touches a game and played in at least 14 games. I think you might be wishing him a bigger workload than he will actually see,

Clemson was a pretty dominant team for most of those years and there were lots of other weapons to feature. They didn't need to use him that often. It didn't limit his production, he was average 7-8 ypc and scoring at a ridiculous rate. Senior year was less efficient but really the whole offense struggled a bit that year- Lawrence included. They didn't have any WRs with speed to create space.

As for the 15 touches a game, some of these guys got hurt but by my count there were 18 RBs who got 15 touches per game when they were starting. Aaron Jones was 14.9, Darrell Henferson was 14. 8. It's really not an unreasonable number IMO.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Pierce was chewing it up in the 1st Q for the Texans tonight. I know it's preseason but I did have him ranked pretty high in the RB class, not sure why i am resistant to what i am watching unfold. Teams will stack them up in the regular season, Pierce will jump another round or two after tonight is my guess.

 

[crushedspirit]

Pierce was chewing it up in the 1st Q for the Texans tonight. I know it's preseason but I did have him ranked pretty high in the RB class, not sure why i am resistant to what i am watching unfold. Teams will stack them up in the regular season, Pierce is jump another round or two after tonight is my guess.

One major thing I noticed about him this pre season is his instincts. Kid knows where to run, and has the burst to get going.

 

[NYRAGE]

C.McCaffrey- Christian will enter YEAR 6 of his NFL career(2017 Class has a bunch) and many felt after his 3rd season that we had found a future HoF RB in the same production of guys we don’t see as often. RBs where the entire offense funnels thru them including pass plays. 350 and then 400+ touches his 2nd and 3rd season gave way to a very empty Season 4 and Season 5 last year. And yet there seems to be no discount in obtaining McCaffrey and for those reasons I find his ADP right now to be a smidge high if you take a step back and look at the entire board. He offers great rewards but there seems to be a lot of downside with the Carolina Offense and he might not see chunks of yards in the way he has previously in his career. Plus, he has a mounting medical chart that rivals Dalton from Roadhouse. He is hard to take off the field when healthy and Carolina has not invested in a quality back up or someone that can push or take touches from a healthy Christian McCaffrey.

J.Taylor- 268 touches as a Rookie turned into 372 touches his 2nd Season and let that be a guiding light to what some 2nd Year RBs later in this Draft might be able to piece together if they also see an increase in their touches from Year 1 to Year 2.

3,639 yds from scrimmage, 32 TDs, 76 receptions and many feel Matt Ryan will be a steadier hand at QB than Wentz was in 2021. He seems like a no brainer to take #1 Overall unless his number of touches scares you but he is still just 23 yrs old and 332 carries is about 20 per game in a 17 game season where he started every week. Can’t ask for a lot more.

Gotta love the Roadhouse reference especially since I caught parts of this twice this week.

 

[:deadbevo:]

Took JT, ELi Mitchell, Montgomery.

Good to have MoP on my side.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

C.McCaffrey- Christian will enter YEAR 6 of his NFL career(2017 Class has a bunch) and many felt after his 3rd season that we had found a future HoF RB in the same production of guys we don’t see as often. RBs where the entire offense funnels thru them including pass plays. 350 and then 400+ touches his 2nd and 3rd season gave way to a very empty Season 4 and Season 5 last year. And yet there seems to be no discount in obtaining McCaffrey and for those reasons I find his ADP right now to be a smidge high if you take a step back and look at the entire board. He offers great rewards but there seems to be a lot of downside with the Carolina Offense and he might not see chunks of yards in the way he has previously in his career. Plus, he has a mounting medical chart that rivals Dalton from Roadhouse. He is hard to take off the field when healthy and Carolina has not invested in a quality back up or someone that can push or take touches from a healthy Christian McCaffrey.

J.Taylor- 268 touches as a Rookie turned into 372 touches his 2nd Season and let that be a guiding light to what some 2nd Year RBs later in this Draft might be able to piece together if they also see an increase in their touches from Year 1 to Year 2.

3,639 yds from scrimmage, 32 TDs, 76 receptions and many feel Matt Ryan will be a steadier hand at QB than Wentz was in 2021. He seems like a no brainer to take #1 Overall unless his number of touches scares you but he is still just 23 yrs old and 332 carries is about 20 per game in a 17 game season where he started every week. Can’t ask for a lot more.

Gotta love the Roadhouse reference especially since I caught parts of this twice this week.

 

[rockaction]

What about Breece Hall? Anything on my guy?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

What about Breece Hall? Anything on my guy?

Tier 4

Breece Hall-Rookie RB drafted by the New York Jets. My thoughts from a guy who is heavily invested in Elijah Moore, not feeling great about the overall Offense in New York and think the first month could be rocky. Zach is out for a month and likely missing Week 1 but you talk to fans and media, they all seem to think Joe Flacco is the man and will be just fine. Call me skeptical that I will be watching Joe Flacco nursing a 4-point lead in the 4th Q and handing the ball off to Hall as the Jets close out the clock and another victory…see that sounds farfetched to me. I feel like there are better options around here but understand if someone watched him religiously in college and feels we simply don’t know his talent yet.

-Both of the last RBs are young or lack any game experience in the NFL, difficult to gauge what that will mean for them. Some of the next guys in this tier do have some proven worth.

He typically is listed behind Etienne in the 18-22 range of most mocks and projections. I find that that price tag a little high right now when you see others you can secure with more proven track record and history. Jets offense is up and coming let's say...but they have some OL issues already, not every NFL team can win 11-12 games this year and the Jets IMHO are not going to be running the clock out that often.

What's your take on him?

 

[rockaction]

What's your take on him?

Scared. I have him in dynasty and drafted him as an RB2 the other day in redraft. He is not trending upward. I was worried coming into the year (in the back of my mind) that perhaps he was too patient a runner for the wide zone scheme the Jets want to run. But I put that aside, thinking he would adjust. He's going to have to if he wants to succeed.

I agree with you about his team situation, too. He's a hard avoid this year, it seems, though I believe in the talent.

eta* And I missed your original analysis. Sorry about that.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

What's your take on him?

Scared. I have him in dynasty and drafted him as an RB2 the other day in redraft. He is not trending upward. I was worried coming into the year (in the back of my mind) that perhaps he was too patient a runner for the wide zone scheme the Jets want to run. But I put that aside, thinking he would adjust. He's going to have to if he wants to succeed.

I agree with you about his team situation, too. He's a hard avoid this year, it seems, though I believe in the talent.

eta* And I missed your original analysis. Sorry about that.

I do think he will have a much stronger 2nd Half of the season. Some RBs come in right away and take off, others need half a season to really adjust and get right.

I know the Shark Pool takes great pride in predicting the RB1 for all 32 teams but like @BobbyLayne posted yesterday, half of the NFL teams run a 2-Back system or an RBBC one way or the other. Carter has established himself for at least half the touches and I think a few more than that in September going into October. That still leaves all of Nov and Dec for a team i feel will know definitively by that point that they will miss the Playoffs and I think they might take more chances at that point.

I saw Mims wanted out of New York, that tells you the talent at WR already with Moore and Wilson. I point this out because Zach is getting off to a rough NFL start but you've seen the arm, it's evident. At some point things could start clicking in the passing game, that should open up more holes but again i revert to the OL and the mystery surrounding them with injuries, could be a long season there.