Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Buffalo Bills (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2012 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB, Buffalo Bills

Player Page Link: Ryan Fitzpatrick Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[amicsta]

Ryan Fitzpatrick could represent great value this season as a committee type QB. Last season, he was playing great football for an improved Bills offense before getting hurt against the Redskins in week 7. After that, his season seemingly went down the tubes as his balls noticeably lacked any zip. Buffalo has not improved much in terms of their offensive skill players. They added a young WR in Graham who could help them right away to stretch the field, but other than that they have not made any major changes. They have, however, upgraded their defense tremendously and it should keep them in enough games to utilize the 1-2 punch of Jackson and Spiller and not rely on the pass as much. Buffalo's best pass play is perhaps the screen pass, and FJax runs it to perfection, which should help out Fitz' numbers greatly. If we look at those first 7 games, Fitzpatrick put up a 155/229, 1739, 14/7 line, which would extrapolate to 354/523, 3965, 32/16 over a full season. Those numbers would represent career highs in both yards and touchdowns, and the YPA of about 7.58 would grossly outperform his career average of 6.27. We also cannot probably pin ALL of Fitzpatricks awful play in the last 9 games of the season to the injury. So if we scale back those numbers a litte bit, my final projection would be:

340/523, 7.4 YPA, 3870 YDs, 28TD/15INT, 53 carries/267 rush yards

 

[Gottabesweet]

Even before the injury last year, his arm strength was in question. He is a smart Quarterback that is fit for the spread with his lack of skill. Getting the ball out fast will limit his yards unless some big RAC happens. The Bills ran the most 3 and 4 wide reciever sets and I believe that changes with the committee running backs.

3600 yards, 25 TDS - 20 ints. -

 

[GroveDiesel]

I will be keeping a close eye on Fitzpatrick during training camp and preseason. He's been working this offseason with one of the best QB coaches in the league in David Lee. For the first time in his life someone is actually addressing throwing mechanics with him. It's shocking to hear, but Fitzpatrick said he's NEVER had a coach at any level ever talk about mechanics with him before.

They've worked on some footwork issues and have intensely charted and broken down every throw this offseason. The early reports from teammates were that he had more zip on balls thrown across his body and was getting the ball downfield to his left better. Fitzpatrick claims that they've been able to actually chart an increase in his accuracy since working on his mechanics.

It will be interesting to see if there is a noticeable increase in velocity and accuracy of his throws during camp and, more importantly, in preseason action. If his throws really are stronger and his accuracy tightens up some, he could be in for a huge year. He had WRs open deep for huge TDs last year and just couldn't hit them. He could have easily added 350 yards and 5 or 6 TDs last year if he threw the ball downfield more accurately. There's reason to believe that he may actually be able to connect in some of those this year.

 

[Gottabesweet]

I will be keeping a close eye on Fitzpatrick during training camp and preseason. He's been working this offseason with one of the best QB coaches in the league in David Lee. For the first time in his life someone is actually addressing throwing mechanics with him. It's shocking to hear, but Fitzpatrick said he's NEVER had a coach at any level ever talk about mechanics with him before.

They've worked on some footwork issues and have intensely charted and broken down every throw this offseason. The early reports from teammates were that he had more zip on balls thrown across his body and was getting the ball downfield to his left better. Fitzpatrick claims that they've been able to actually chart an increase in his accuracy since working on his mechanics.

It will be interesting to see if there is a noticeable increase in velocity and accuracy of his throws during camp and, more importantly, in preseason action. If his throws really are stronger and his accuracy tightens up some, he could be in for a huge year. He had WRs open deep for huge TDs last year and just couldn't hit them. He could have easily added 350 yards and 5 or 6 TDs last year if he threw the ball downfield more accurately. There's reason to believe that he may actually be able to connect in some of those this year.

Half that was the Giants game ::shaking my head::

 

[TheDirtyWord]

In 2011, Fitzpatrick was startable for the first half of the season. Not so for the 2nd half. In 2012, I suspect you’ll see him revert to his 2nd half form. However, I think the Bills will be a better team for it.

1) With the emergence of CJ Spiller, I think the Bills now have an RB combination they can put their offense on the back of. As such, whereas last season the Bills operated with essentially 1 primary RB, now they’ll have 2 – both of whom are quite proficient in the passing game.

2) The Bills allowed an AFC high 434 points in 2011. The Bills early season success was surprisingly built on the string of some surprising shoot-outs. But I think this team recognizes they won’t be a consistently good team via this philosophy. They’ve got to be smarter about how they control the tempo not only of each game, but their team and identity. 38-35 (OAK), 34-31 (NE), 31-24 (PHI)…this was Fools Gold for BUF.

3) The Bills claim Fitzpatrick was hurt, and that may have been the case – but I think he was simply miscast as a franchise QB and the attention his new contract drew (and his immediate nosedive in play) didn’t do him any favors in that regard. Making the most out of his pass attempts would seem to be a better use of Fitzpatrick’s talents versus having him chuck it up 40x/game.

This is a roster that is truly devoid of a 3rd pass catching option outside their RB’s. David Nelson is an adequate #2 WR and Stevie Johnson probably deserves the same designation as a #1 WR. But simply put, the Bills don’t have the tools to be prolific. IMO, the Bills really need to establish Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller as their 1st and 2nd weapons on offense in capacities where one relieves the other and when they are on the field at the same time. Spiller has more versatility to be moved around in this regard and so his ability to embrace this role is going to be important. But now having tasted some success professionally when he replaced F-Jax, I think his confidence and ability to take on diverse responsibilities may make for a truly unique rotation here.

But a passing game built around this aspect of your offense is going to curtail the type of numbers that Fitzpatrick is going to be able to put up. Whereas his YPA during that torrid 7 game stretch was 7.6, I expect it to be closer to 7. In addition, He needs to cut down his INT’s. We all know he led the NFL in this category in 2011, but again – Games 1-7, his INT rate was an acceptable 3.06%.

I’m forecasting Fitzpatrick’s return to being an average NFL starting QB, but one that has command of his team. Statistically speaking, he’s not going to produce anything special. But his ability to make everything work will be what makes him indispensible to the Bills.

Prediction: 317 Completions, 503 Attempts, 3561 Passing Yards, 21 TD’s, 14 INT’s; 47 Rushes, 179 Rushing Yards, 1 TD.

 

[LittlePhatty]

Fitzpatrick has strung together two good weeks after starting the season with 3 INTs in game 1.

He's currently QB12 in my league (6pt. passing TDs). While I don't expect him to stay there, I really only see maybe 3 or 4 QBs behind him that I'd bump in front of him. A QB16 finish would equal a pretty decent backup on your FF roster who will outperform several guys that were probably drafted much earlier.

I haven't been able to watch a single Buffalo game though, so for those who have seen the games, how does he look? Is he on the cusp of making some great plays, or is he squeaking by and narrowly missing some disastrous ones? One stat that I like is that he's only been sacked once in 3 games, so it seems like he's getting some good protection.

 

[TeamDingo]

FWIW He is my starter and I am scared. Struggles to get over 200 YPG and do not think he will keep up the 2.67 TD per game.

 

[Gawain]

Fitzpatrick has strung together two good weeks after starting the season with 3 INTs in game 1.He's currently QB12 in my league (6pt. passing TDs). While I don't expect him to stay there, I really only see maybe 3 or 4 QBs behind him that I'd bump in front of him. A QB16 finish would equal a pretty decent backup on your FF roster who will outperform several guys that were probably drafted much earlier. I haven't been able to watch a single Buffalo game though, so for those who have seen the games, how does he look? Is he on the cusp of making some great plays, or is he squeaking by and narrowly missing some disastrous ones? One stat that I like is that he's only been sacked once in 3 games, so it seems like he's getting some good protection.

Fitzpatrick is tied for sixth among QB's in my league and tied for seventh overall. I would love to move him. His completion percentage is shaky at best, his passing yardage is 26th in the league and he encounters significant weather problems later in the year. The loss of Spiller and Jackson will also take it's toll, because both are great out of the backfield. Fitz's TD to Spiller yesterday was a dumpoff where CJ did the work. This is likely the high water mark for Fitz this year and if you can get any sort of upgrade for him, i would jump all over it.

 

[Gawain]

After Rodgers gets 70 yards tonight, the only starting quarterbacks that Fitzy will have more passing yards than are Freeman, Gabbert, Kolb and Wilson (and if Wilson throws for 300, he will pass Fitz as well)

Not what I want my fantasy team to rely on (although, like TeamDingo, I too start him in a 2QB league.)

 

[TeamDingo]

After Rodgers gets 70 yards tonight, the only starting quarterbacks that Fitzy will have more passing yards than are Freeman, Gabbert, Kolb and Wilson (and if Wilson throws for 300, he will pass Fitz as well)Not what I want my fantasy team to rely on (although, like TeamDingo, I too start him in a 2QB league.)

I wish ...1 QB League. Some ill advised tactics at the auction left me with Fitz (supposed to be my backup) as my starter.

 

[D'OHtis]

I'd take anything anyone would give me. (I don't ever pay anything for backup fantasy QB's so my expectations aren't much)

i never envision starting Fitzpatrick (really never envision owning Fitzpatrick period), but if someone will give me a player I could envision ever starting, I'd be all over it.

He actually was off to an even better start through 3 games last year -- 9 TD 3 INT 841 yards pass (vs. 8/3/581 this year)

 

[GroveDiesel]

One stat that I like is that he's only been sacked once in 3 games, so it seems like he's getting some good protection.

The Bills gave up the least number of sacks in the league last year. They've given up the least QB hurries so far this year as well.And FWIW, the Bills still haven't really given up a sack. The "sack" was recorded on a play where the officials ruled on replay that Fitz fumbled instead of throwing an incomplete pass. That made it a sack that they credited to the Cleveland defense as a whole. The overturning was questionable at best.

 

[LittlePhatty]

After Rodgers gets 70 yards tonight, the only starting quarterbacks that Fitzy will have more passing yards than are Freeman, Gabbert, Kolb and Wilson (and if Wilson throws for 300, he will pass Fitz as well)Not what I want my fantasy team to rely on (although, like TeamDingo, I too start him in a 2QB league.)

Fitz ranked 11th in passing yards last year (over 3800). Maybe he's just off to a slow start, or maybe we've seen his best and he'll regress this season to 200 per game, but either way I like the 8 passing TDs over the first 3 games. I don't know, but I just have a hunch that he could finish this year as a very high QB2 or a low QB1.