Ryan Mathews & Mike Tolbert, RBs, San Diego Chargers (1 Viewer)

[We Tigers]

My problem with Tolbert right now is how little he's doing in the rush game. The receptions will be there, but he's not going to catch 100 passes. Let's see how he does in terms of rush attempts this week. I think calling Tolbert more than a super-handcuff--second probably only to Michael Bush--is a little iffy right now. However, that still makes him RB25-30 going forward, I'll guess. The nature of his TD-heavy production makes him a splash player, though--5 point weeks and 15+ point weeks, with not much in between. I'm using him as a bye week/injury guy, hoping that I get one of those TD games. What this all means is that he probably is a tough player to trade; no one will pay a lot for him, and no one will want to give him up based on the potential. What's changed in SD since preseason is Mathews, not Tolbert, so a guy so dependent on another player is a hard one to evaluate.

He is actually on pace to catch 100 passes. Right now he has 25 catches for 206 yards on the year (31 targets). If you play in PPR, his floor is pretty high.

Right. My point is that the pace is likely unsustainable. Not many RBs catch 100 passes, especially when they have another good pass-catching back on the roster.

 

[Touchdown There]

My problem with Tolbert right now is how little he's doing in the rush game. The receptions will be there, but he's not going to catch 100 passes. Let's see how he does in terms of rush attempts this week. I think calling Tolbert more than a super-handcuff--second probably only to Michael Bush--is a little iffy right now. However, that still makes him RB25-30 going forward, I'll guess. The nature of his TD-heavy production makes him a splash player, though--5 point weeks and 15+ point weeks, with not much in between. I'm using him as a bye week/injury guy, hoping that I get one of those TD games. What this all means is that he probably is a tough player to trade; no one will pay a lot for him, and no one will want to give him up based on the potential. What's changed in SD since preseason is Mathews, not Tolbert, so a guy so dependent on another player is a hard one to evaluate.

He is actually on pace to catch 100 passes. Right now he has 25 catches for 206 yards on the year (31 targets). If you play in PPR, his floor is pretty high.

Right. My point is that the pace is likely unsustainable. Not many RBs catch 100 passes, especially when they have another good pass-catching back on the roster.

Sure. I am just trying to point out that his floor could be 10 points a week in PPR. If he gets into the endzone 50% of the games, and has 15-40 yards rushing per game, he is a reliable fantasy starter. Bad day for Tolbert: 4 catches for 36, 5 rushes for 22 yards, 0 touchdowns = 9.8 points in a PPR.

 

[Tau837]

Tolbert is averaging 2.6 ypc. That is awful, and there is no reason to give him any substantive carries over Mathews (4.7 ypc), other than short yardage. It seems the coaching staff agrees... Tolbert had 12 carries in game 1 but has only 19 total in the 3 games since. Meanwhile, Mathews' carries have increased (12, 12, 21, 16).

Wouldn't it stand to reason that his YPC wouldn't be that high since he's running the ball mostly in short yardage situations?

Except that isn't the case. Here are his splits for this season from ESPNOWN = 1 TO GO 3-7: 4/15 (3.8 ypc)DOWN = 1 TO GO 8-10: 17/44 (2.6 ypc)DOWN = 2 TO GO 1-2: 2/3 (1.5 ypc)DOWN = 2 TO GO 3-7: 5/13 (2.6 ypc)DOWN = 3 TO GO 1-2: 2/6 (3.0 ypc)DOWN = 4 TO GO 1-2: 1/0 (0.0 ypc)Combining these:TO GO 1-2: 5/9 (1.8 ypc)TO GO 3+: 26/72 (2.8 ypc)And, just in case you would debate the definition of short yardage, consider:TO GO 6+: 19/54 (2.8 ypc)31 carries is not a large sample size, but there just isn't anything here to get excited about. Meanwhile, there is a lot to get excited about with regard to Mathews' performance. It would be the equivalent of football coaching malpractice for the San Diego coaching staff not to reduce Tolbert's role and give more touches to Mathews. For all his faults, Norv Turner has made good decisions about his RBs throughout his career.

 

[FF Ninja]

Sure. I am just trying to point out that his floor could be 10 points a week in PPR. If he gets into the endzone 50% of the games, and has 15-40 yards rushing per game, he is a reliable fantasy starter. Bad day for Tolbert: 4 catches for 36, 5 rushes for 22 yards, 0 touchdowns = 9.8 points in a PPR.

This is a great illustration for why PPR is an abomination of fantasy football.Full disclosure: I have Sproles and Tolbert in my ppr league. I take the points but I don't have to like it.

 

[Tau837]

My problem with Tolbert right now is how little he's doing in the rush game. The receptions will be there, but he's not going to catch 100 passes. Let's see how he does in terms of rush attempts this week. I think calling Tolbert more than a super-handcuff--second probably only to Michael Bush--is a little iffy right now. However, that still makes him RB25-30 going forward, I'll guess. The nature of his TD-heavy production makes him a splash player, though--5 point weeks and 15+ point weeks, with not much in between. I'm using him as a bye week/injury guy, hoping that I get one of those TD games. What this all means is that he probably is a tough player to trade; no one will pay a lot for him, and no one will want to give him up based on the potential. What's changed in SD since preseason is Mathews, not Tolbert, so a guy so dependent on another player is a hard one to evaluate.

He is actually on pace to catch 100 passes. Right now he has 25 catches for 206 yards on the year (31 targets). If you play in PPR, his floor is pretty high.

Right. My point is that the pace is likely unsustainable. Not many RBs catch 100 passes, especially when they have another good pass-catching back on the roster.

Sure. I am just trying to point out that his floor could be 10 points a week in PPR. If he gets into the endzone 50% of the games, and has 15-40 yards rushing per game, he is a reliable fantasy starter. Bad day for Tolbert: 4 catches for 36, 5 rushes for 22 yards, 0 touchdowns = 9.8 points in a PPR.

Maybe this is nitpicking, but this is probably a more accurate line without a TD: 4/33/0 receiving and 5/13/0 rushing = 8.6 points in a PPR.

 

[Mag1234]

I would think Tolbert may also pickup second half carries if SD ever manages to blow a team out. So he could have extra value against bad teams. Given that Tolbert is used in short yardage seemingly to limit punishment on Mathews I could see them preserving Mathews when he is not needed. It is hard to predict but may add some upside to Tolbert's value.

 

[Bobtender]

My problem with Tolbert right now is how little he's doing in the rush game. The receptions will be there, but he's not going to catch 100 passes. Let's see how he does in terms of rush attempts this week. I think calling Tolbert more than a super-handcuff--second probably only to Michael Bush--is a little iffy right now. However, that still makes him RB25-30 going forward, I'll guess. The nature of his TD-heavy production makes him a splash player, though--5 point weeks and 15+ point weeks, with not much in between. I'm using him as a bye week/injury guy, hoping that I get one of those TD games. What this all means is that he probably is a tough player to trade; no one will pay a lot for him, and no one will want to give him up based on the potential. What's changed in SD since preseason is Mathews, not Tolbert, so a guy so dependent on another player is a hard one to evaluate.

He is actually on pace to catch 100 passes. Right now he has 25 catches for 206 yards on the year (31 targets). If you play in PPR, his floor is pretty high.

Right. My point is that the pace is likely unsustainable. Not many RBs catch 100 passes, especially when they have another good pass-catching back on the roster.

Sure. I am just trying to point out that his floor could be 10 points a week in PPR. If he gets into the endzone 50% of the games, and has 15-40 yards rushing per game, he is a reliable fantasy starter. Bad day for Tolbert: 4 catches for 36, 5 rushes for 22 yards, 0 touchdowns = 9.8 points in a PPR.

Maybe this is nitpicking, but this is probably a more accurate line without a TD: 4/33/0 receiving and 5/13/0 rushing = 8.6 points in a PPR.

Your right... nitpicking

 

[Bobtender]

Coach Norv Turner suggested Wednesday that the Chargers would prefer to give Ryan Mathews 24 to 25 carries in games moving forward.

"He's playing with great confidence," said Turner. "I've been around some great backs ... That's why you want to get them in the (24-25 carries range). He got what 16 carries, 18 carries (last week)? If we can get him that 24, 25 carries it's gonna help him." Turner has been careful to avoid blatantly saying Mike Tolbert's role will diminish, but the writing is on the wall with Mathews averaging 4.72 YPC and 135.5 total yards per game

More touches for Matthews

If that's the case, Mathews will be out with an injury with-in 2 to 3 weeks and Tolbert's value will be back up to the 15-20 range.

 

[Hendo]

Mathews could join a DMC like level if given the full load... its painfully obvious how talented he is out on the field. He's looked like a complete every down factor back this year, something I thought he would resemble last year but never materialized.

Great skill, perfect squaty build, can run inside/out, catch and pick up a blitz. Really everything you want at that position.

 

[Raider Nation]

Mathews out with a calf injury. It only took five weeks.

 

[KOTC]

Mathews out with a calf injury. It only took five weeks.

[/quote

done for the game or no? how severe?

 

[Raider Nation]

done for the game or no? how severe?

What I wrote is what I heard.

 

[nysportsfan]

done for the game or no? how severe?

What I wrote is what I heard.

Was wondering why they were giving lesser backs the touches, thanks.

 

[Raider Nation]

done for the game or no? how severe?

What I wrote is what I heard.

Was wondering why they were giving lesser backs the touches, thanks.

My reply wasn't intended to sound rude, BTW. That's just all they said.

 

[nysportsfan]

done for the game or no? how severe?

What I wrote is what I heard.

Was wondering why they were giving lesser backs the touches, thanks.

My reply wasn't intended to sound rude, BTW. That's just all they said.

Mine either I just turned on the game, saw Tolbert running into the line, Hester doing the same, and I thought something was amiss.

 

[nysportsfan]

Mathews back in and looking great after contact.

 

[Raider Nation]

done for the game or no? how severe?

What I wrote is what I heard.

Was wondering why they were giving lesser backs the touches, thanks.

My reply wasn't intended to sound rude, BTW. That's just all they said.

Mine either

LOL. No, I know. I just re-read mine and it sounded unnecessarily curt. Carry on.

 

[flapgreen]

back

 

[Raider Nation]

Tolbert has a concussion. Will not return.

 

[NBusiness]

Matthews looks like he just broke his shoulder. He's ok now

 

[Phil4]

What's going on with Mathews ? He's not on the field ...

 

[LittlePhatty]

What's going on with Mathews ? He's not on the field ...

Because the game is over.

 

[shadyridr]

What's going on with Mathews ? He's not on the field ...

supposedly limped off a third time

 

[Louisville Slugger]

What's going on with Mathews ? He's not on the field ...

supposedly limped off a third time

"Ryan Mathews left the stadium on crutches Sunday due to a calf injury"This guy is made of glass. Glad he has his bye week next week.

 

[shadyridr]

oof wish i had tolbert

 

[phillybirds]

Coach Norv Turner suggested Wednesday that the Chargers would prefer to give Ryan Mathews 24 to 25 carries in games moving forward.

"He's playing with great confidence," said Turner. "I've been around some great backs ... That's why you want to get them in the (24-25 carries range). He got what 16 carries, 18 carries (last week)? If we can get him that 24, 25 carries it's gonna help him." Turner has been careful to avoid blatantly saying Mike Tolbert's role will diminish, but the writing is on the wall with Mathews averaging 4.72 YPC and 135.5 total yards per game

More touches for Matthews

If that's the case, Mathews will be out with an injury with-in 2 to 3 weeks and Tolbert's value will be back up to the 15-20 range.

 

[shadyridr]

funny he got exactly 24 carries and then left hurt. hopefully the crutches is just a precautionary thing, although id think a guy could limp around with a bad calf without crutches. hopefully the bye week is enough for him

 

[Hendo]

Relax, people like to blow things out of proportion. We dont even know anything definitive yet and they have their bye coming up.

 

[LittlePhatty]

This guy is made of glass.

Jeez, this is a ridiculous thing to say. He kept playing today after getting banged up TWICE during the game.

 

[Phil4]

Update: Calf and wrist injuries. Hope the bye week will be enough but I don't count on that. Thoses injuries will force me to shop for another good RB just in case. I'm not sold on the fact that he will be 100% for the rest of the year.

Still, Mathews is a beast and I still rank him in the top 5 going foward, unless he play injured ...

 

[Walton Goggins]

Ryan Mathews expected to play after bye week

Though he "probably" wouldn't be ready if the Chargers had a Week 6 game, the San Diego Union-Tribune confirms that Ryan Mathews (calf, wrist) is expected to return against the Jets in Week 7.

Mike Tolbert (concussion) is also expected to play against New York, following San Diego's Week 6 bye. As for Mathews, beat reporter Kevin Acee writes, "the belief is the bye will allow him (enough) time to heal." Mathews is currently third in the NFL in yards from scrimmage, behind only Wes Welker and Fred Jackson. He's averaging 4.86 yards per carry, up from his 4.29 rookie clip.

Source: San Diego Union-Tribune

 

[Raider Nation]

I'm so over this stupid time-share. Norv can eat me. I'm ready to play Hardesty over Mathews going forward.

 

[Hendo]

I'm so over this stupid time-share. Norv can eat me. I'm ready to play Hardesty over Mathews going forward.

Hardesty? Lmfao... goodluck with that one let us know how it works out for you.

 

[Raider Nation]

I'm so over this stupid time-share. Norv can eat me. I'm ready to play Hardesty over Mathews going forward.

Hardesty? Lmfao... goodluck with that one let us know how it works out for you.

Okay...

 

[shadyridr]

I'm so over this stupid time-share. Norv can eat me. I'm ready to play Hardesty over Mathews going forward.

Mathews was hurt and ineffective. Tolbert was effective. I own Mathews and not Tolbert but isnt the goal winning games? Which yeah they didnt do but Mathews had more touches than Tolbert. Maybe that was the reason (or Rivers sucking).

 

[Apple Jack]

I'm so over this stupid time-share. Norv can eat me. I'm ready to play Hardesty over Mathews going forward.

Mathews was out for some of the game with a thumb injury. Fwiw, I'm pretty sure Tolbert's TD came while he was still sitting for the injury.

 

[krugoh]

What do you think happens here IF both backs are 100% healthy for an entire game (Crazy talk, RIGHT?). Will Tolbert get the goalline snaps, or will it be a crapshoot ala bradshaw/jacobs?

 

[Gr00vus]

What do you think happens here IF both backs are 100% healthy for an entire game (Crazy talk, RIGHT?). Will Tolbert get the goalline snaps, or will it be a crapshoot ala bradshaw/jacobs?

I'd give a higher probability of Tolbert getting those carries, but not a 100% probability. It's a 2 man RBBC folks, and it's justified in order to attempt to keep both available for the entirety of the season.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

I sense an opening right now to trade for Mathews once again and I'm trying to make it happen for cheap. I already have Tolbert but the bye and the down week with another injury could give me the window I need. It helps that the Mathews owner is pretty set at RB but beyond thin at WR while I'm the opposite.

Would not mind one bit owning both.

ETA: Success!

 

[scrumptrulescent]

What do you think happens here IF both backs are 100% healthy for an entire game (Crazy talk, RIGHT?). Will Tolbert get the goalline snaps, or will it be a crapshoot ala bradshaw/jacobs?

I'd give a higher probability of Tolbert getting those carries, but not a 100% probability. It's a 2 man RBBC folks, and it's justified in order to attempt to keep both available for the entirety of the season.

For the NFL this is the wisest route, for FF it stinks. It completely makes sense to split carries between RB's if you have the luxury of more than one talented RB. SD has that luxury.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

So how iffy is tolbert at this point?

 

[T J]

So how iffy is tolbert at this point?

Don't know but hopefully extremely... like can't-go type of iffy.

 

[Squintz82]

So how iffy is tolbert at this point?

(TheHuddle) San Diego Chargers RB Mike Tolbert (hand, hamstring) did not participate in practice Thursday, Oct. 27.Analysis: The Chargers are on a little different schedule because they play Monday; so this Thursday is like a 'Wednesday"... meaning Tolbert still has time to get right. We won't rule him out yet but if you planned to start him you should be exploring other options.

This is big for Mathews owners. Tolbert had a similar issue before facing the Chiefs week 3 (limited all week), and Mathews had a HUGE game with 2 TD's.

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

Today is probably make or break although there is some reprieve with mnf.

 

[Hank Mardukas]

Tolbert missed practice again. Wasn't even seen working out on the sidelines. I smell a huge day for Mathews.

 

[scrumptrulescent]

Mike Tolbert (hamstring/hand) missed Chargers practice again on Friday and is uncertain to play on Monday night.The Chargers will release their official injury report on Friday, but Tolbert looks headed for a questionable tag. Per Michael Gehlken of NBC San Diego, Tolbert wasn't even working out to the side of Friday's practice. Look for Ryan Mathews to receive upwards of 25-28 touches against the Chiefs if Tolbert can't play. We'll know more about Tolbert's status this weekend.

Just traded for Mathews

 

[Dought Man]

We're looking at 175 yards total and likely 2-3 TD's from Mathews this week.

His floor would be 100 total yards and 2 TD's...

 

[steelerfan1]

We're looking at 175 yards total and likely 2-3 TD's from Mathews this week. His floor would be 100 total yards and 2 TD's...

or a turned ankle, sprained thumb, pulled hammy in the 1rst

 

[Leeroy Jenkins]

 

[Hank Mardukas]

Do people see Forte, AP, Foster, et al. significantly outperforming Mathews the rest of the way? If Tolbert was out of the picture, is there any RB you'd rather have?