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I will bet you any sum you wish that Ryan Mathews won't even get 70% of the carries. (seriously... we can have Abraham hold it in escrow)
At that point Matthews is definitely a pretty solid value.very interested to see what Mathews does as my RB3/RB4. people were passing on him like the plague until i said screw it, I'll take him at the bottom of the 5th.'[icon] said:Really enjoyed scarfing up Tolbert as a RB4/RB5 laaaaate in all my drafts this weekend.
No, it sure doesnt. He got the carries in game 1 and didnt play well. In game 2, he got hurt. When he came back he disappointed in the NE game and they were quickly back to a RBBC. And then when he came back the second time the only time he out-carried Tolbert was when Tolbert was hurt. Again, he was a * disappointment*. His own teammates were saying so just yesterday (which is rare), so I'd just go ahead and concede this lest we have to have RM give each of you a call personally on the subject.All this being said...he could certainly turn it around and will get plenty of opportunity to do so; I think he's a great selection for fantasy leagues b/c of his lowish ADP and the variability around his mean projections. Variability wins championships. If he plays like he did against the Bengals & Broncos (when Tolbert was hurt for 6 of the 8 quarters) then he'll be just fine...but he is certainly not the GL RB. If Tolbert keeps fumbling and RM stops fumbling himself, RM will be even better.
The anecdote from Tolbert's interview yesterday re: the Dallas game says a lot about the GL situation in San Diego. It's in post #254, 4th bullet.
yes it does. So Mathews is probably only going to score TDs on long TD runs/rec or if Tolbert gets hurt. sounds like he'll be lucky to match his 7 from last year. how many 20 yard TD runs can you expect?
I dont think anyone is saying to take tolbert ahead of mathews.
You said when he was healthy he didn't shoulder the load. As I said, this is false. The only time he was fully healthy all season were the first 5 quarters of the season, during which time he shouldered the load. It's as straightforward as it gets. BTW, can you provide a link to where his teammates specifically said he was a disappointment last season?
overthinking is when you rationalize away tangible evidence such as, tolbert is always in on the goal line, and tolbert is almost always in on passing downs, beat writers predict 50/50 split, coaches and players concede there will be a split, etc. now, mathews may still be worth a 4th rounder as hes still in line for 200-220 carries and 20-40 catches.
This is classic bulletin board deflection; ignore all the salient points in an argument and focus on a sliver of a side-piece to focus on that has a modicum of truth. But I'll bite. Even this splinter argument is questionable. So you're argument is that he was healthy in week 1 (and went 20 for 78) and since he got 20 carries was "relied upon". How do you explain what happened after the STL and New England games? Was he healthy in the Tennessee, Houston, KC and San Fran games later in the year? Yes he was and he simply wasnt relied upon. The coaching staff went RBBC all the way until Tolbert got hurt. Thanks for playing.
What beat writers are predicting a 50/50 split? I don't think that is what Acee is predicting, and IMO he is the best Chargers beat writer.
This. Everything I've read suggests that Tolbert will play a substantial role, but that there is no doubt Mathews is the "lead back". To me, that seems like a 60/40 split, with Mathews getting the all important first dibs to put a stranglehold on the job. I think it really comes down to whether you believe in Mathews' talent. B/c if you do (as I do), you're likely to believe he succeeds and flourishes. If you don't, it's perfectly rationale to believe that Tolbert is a big value play and that Mathews is overrated.
Classic deflection? Hardly. One of your early posts in this thread had a faulty premise and I corrected you on it. If you don't think Mathews was set to carry the load to open the season last year, and you don't find the results from the first 5 quarters when he was healthy compelling, I suggest you go back and reread all of the news around this time last year. He was most certainly expected to carry the load last season. Once he got hurt, it opened the door for Tolbert to impress, which he did.In case you aren't aware, high ankle sprains are serious injuries that take quite some time to heal, and he reaggravated it later in the season. Furthermore, as I already posted in this thread, after the initial injury, Mathews rarely practiced the rest of the season... further evidence that he wasn't 100% and further reason for him to share the load when he played later in the season.
Man I hope my league is full of this attitude.God no, PLEASE!!! Don't suck me back into the Ryan Mathews vortex!! Must.....avoid....
I dont understand this thinking. He was a rookie who got hurt in week 2 last year...it wasnt that bad man.God no, PLEASE!!! Don't suck me back into the Ryan Mathews vortex!! Must.....avoid....
Your "key" is incorrect. He owned the HB position in the NE game, went 8 for 15 and clearly "hadnt gotten it going" all season long to that point. The next week RM and MT split carries from that point forward until MTs injury. RM had every chance to grab the spot when he came back and didnt run with it.
Well, "we" aren't saying it. You clearly oppose the idea of Mathews being a feature RB, as do others. That said, those of us who believe in Mathews are saying he will be a top 20 RB because of his talent, which will win out over the course of the season.The "we" who talked about the 5 healthy quarters was me. And I brought it up to dispel the notion that Mathews was never considered the guy who would carry the load for the Chargers last season. Clearly, he was set to perform in exactly that role to open the season, and then he got injured early in game 2. The rest of the season he was less than 100% and rarely practiced. So the rest of the season proves nothing about Mathews' ability (or lack thereof) to be a feature RB who carries the load.And IMO it is oversimplification to say the story becomes that Mathews wasn't healthy all year. A high ankle sprain is a serious injury for a RB, and yet he still had a healthy ypc average and scored 7 TDs, despite missing game and practice time and then sharing time with Tolbert, who emerged due to Mathews' injury.I guess I've posted enough about it. It's clear that both sides are generally dug in at this point. It will be interesting to see it play out.
I think this is overstating it, especially after Tolbert's had yet another fumble inside the 10 yard line against Dallas. I think there is a very good chance Mathews ends up scoring 2X as many TDs this year as Tolbert b/c he shows he can be trusted in the red zone and has a nose for the end zone.
I don't think Tolbert is going to be THE goal line back. I think we'll see instances where Mathews punches it in, another time Tolbert will punch it in. I have my doubts that Norv is going to use Tolbert as the exclusive goal line back.
Perhaps like Bradshaw/Jacobs last year? I loved Bradshaw's output, but I felt like it was a coinflip for who was the goal line back for any given red zone trip. Sadly, I have Bradshaw as a keeper, and would like to avoid having a second RB that won't have exclusive goal line work (easier said than done). Post 4th round, I just see better value in someone like Ingram (who seems to be getting a ton of goal line work). Building off that thought, I also took Mathews in the 3rd last year and I am clearly a sucker for rookie RB hype.'Mr Rodgers neighborhood said:
Boom or bust though right? One huge run and really poor ypc before that I think. I know the big run counts, I'm just saying he leaves the door open for Tolbert.
Much like Barry Sanders.
Boom!
Dont care how he gets the numbers. Just happy the guy is capable of popping a 50 yarder every now and then. Exploded thru the hole on that run.
THIS....I also WATCHED the game. Before that run (when AZ was up 2 TDs, had some backup D in & SD was inside their own 10), Matthews was 8 carries for 16 yards (midway through 3rd Qtr) & had 1 carry for 6 yds (7 for 10 yards otherwise). He came out on EVERY passing down AND came out on EVERY RedZone play. He has 1 Reception in all 3 preseason games. The Sanders big run comparison for his stats is ridiculous right now (since he so far has broken very few of them).
You've got to be kidding, also no one is judging things off one preseason game, at least they shouldnt be. Tolbert has no vision, speed, cut back ability, etc. He is a straight ahead power runner who averages less then 4ypc.What he is better at is experience and short yardage running. Once Mathews gets up to speed on blocking he'll very likely take the 3rd down role as well.
at using a 6 carry sample from a preseason game to judge things.Tolbert is what he is, he won't hurt his team but he won't help them much either. He's basically a warm body.
The realistic Tolbert owners realize he's a short term spot player until Mathews gets more experience, when that happens Tolbert can return to his natural fb role muck like McClain did after his "breakout" season a few years ago.Tolbert will be an ok play in td only leagues but his value in more traditional scoring leagues is very low unless Mathews gets injured.
I agree to start the season Tolbert has those roles, but also feel that is Mathews can stay healthy that by mid season with more experience he could start to eat into the roles Tolbert currently fills.As of now Mathews upside is limited, but if he is what SD thought they drafted he will begin to fill a larger role as the season progresses.My advice, sell Tolbert by mid season before he loses all value in FF.
