shader
Footballguy
To this point, Mathews has not shown that he is better than Tolbert at ANYTHING, aside from occasionally breaking a long run due to speed.
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Ryan Mathews & Mike Tolbert, RBs, San Diego Chargers (2 Viewers)
- Thread starter Jason Wood
- Start date
Besides speed, balance, vision, cut back ability, etc I guess you're right. I've always felt those are important qualities for a rb.Tolbert has more power and experience though, so he has that to hang his hat on.
shader
Footballguy
Power, hands, blocking, short yardage, sure-handed....Those are what Tolbert brings to the table and why he is the back who plays in the redzone. I don't know that Mathews has better balance or cutback ability. Thus far he is a speed back who can't stay healthy. Hopefully for his sake that changes this year.
Mathews seems to be made of glass and possibly doesn't work hard as it seems he is still poor at pass protection.His qualities are obvious, but it doesn't matter If he's in the trainers room every other week.
RBM
Footballguy
Relax guy, the season hasnt started yet.Fighting Noles
Footballguy
LOL - My drafts are before the season starts though....
RBM
Footballguy
Sure, but you dont know whether a guy is warranting their draft spot yet.
leave a whisper
Footballguy
Tolbert is the only player I have on all 3 of my teams this year.
@ #103 as RB5
@ #74 as RB4 (main/$ league - RB's go quick)
@ #89 as RB5
(all three 10 team non-ppr)
(** I do not own Mathews in any **)
@ #103 as RB5
@ #74 as RB4 (main/$ league - RB's go quick)
@ #89 as RB5
(all three 10 team non-ppr)
(** I do not own Mathews in any **)
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JuSt CuZ
Footballguy
To think Norv is gonna do anything but put the most effective player on the field, is just not being well informed.
Matthews has shown he is as fragile as it gets at a position that takes a beating, so that makes Tolberts value higher by default.
Matthews has shown he is not ready to carry the rock 20 times a game, and if he was, they wouldn't be splitting time with him and a fullback.
Tolbert has shown he is the better player at the goal line and is just a beast to bring down. He is like Chritian Okoye on Nintendo, goes out of his way to knock fools out.
Matthews has talent, and his production remains to be seen, but to rank Matthews above Tolbert for any reason is not well informed in fantasy football, your just hoping he has a break out year, and thats fine...but please stop acting like its so obvious Matthews should be liked and ranked higher than Tolbert.
Matthews has shown he is as fragile as it gets at a position that takes a beating, so that makes Tolberts value higher by default.
Matthews has shown he is not ready to carry the rock 20 times a game, and if he was, they wouldn't be splitting time with him and a fullback.
Tolbert has shown he is the better player at the goal line and is just a beast to bring down. He is like Chritian Okoye on Nintendo, goes out of his way to knock fools out.
Matthews has talent, and his production remains to be seen, but to rank Matthews above Tolbert for any reason is not well informed in fantasy football, your just hoping he has a break out year, and thats fine...but please stop acting like its so obvious Matthews should be liked and ranked higher than Tolbert.
RBM
Footballguy
When? Where? Because of that one ankle sprain last year?
VaTerp
Footballguy
Interesting thread.
I'm someone who was admittedly higher than I should have been on Mathews last summer (didnt end up drafting him though) and picked up Tolbert off the wire in my both of two main leagues where he helped me win some cash (and likely would have won another chip if he hadn't nearlt died in week 16).
Anyways, I was about to come in here and say they both offer good value this year then I took a look at Mathews ADP and was a bit surprised. I'm REALLY late on my prep work this year but I'd have to say that Mathews is going too high right now IMO. He showed up to camp out of shape, a red flag because of maturity issues in his past, he seems to have some ball security issues, and the presence and role of Tolbert cannot be denied.
I am a believer in Mathews' talent but I think those pulling the trigger on him in the 4th or sooner may be a year too early. Tolbert is in line for PPR and TD love and getting him in the 8th/9th is just MUCH better value right now. I really don't see the argument the other way. In fact maybe it's not so much that Mathews is going too high but that Tolbert is undervalued and going to low. And again, this is coming from someone who is probably higher than the avg on Mathews talent.
I'm someone who was admittedly higher than I should have been on Mathews last summer (didnt end up drafting him though) and picked up Tolbert off the wire in my both of two main leagues where he helped me win some cash (and likely would have won another chip if he hadn't nearlt died in week 16).
Anyways, I was about to come in here and say they both offer good value this year then I took a look at Mathews ADP and was a bit surprised. I'm REALLY late on my prep work this year but I'd have to say that Mathews is going too high right now IMO. He showed up to camp out of shape, a red flag because of maturity issues in his past, he seems to have some ball security issues, and the presence and role of Tolbert cannot be denied.
I am a believer in Mathews' talent but I think those pulling the trigger on him in the 4th or sooner may be a year too early. Tolbert is in line for PPR and TD love and getting him in the 8th/9th is just MUCH better value right now. I really don't see the argument the other way. In fact maybe it's not so much that Mathews is going too high but that Tolbert is undervalued and going to low. And again, this is coming from someone who is probably higher than the avg on Mathews talent.
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goodoldalky
Footballguy
IMO, Mathews floor is the percentage of carries he was given last year over 16 games. He averaged 13 carries per game, over a 16 game season, roughly 210 carries at 4.3 ypc is 910 on the ground. We will say Tolbert still gets the GL love, and conservatively estimate Mathews to stay at 7 rushing TD's this year. We will further assume that Tolbert keeps the third down duties and keeps Mathews reception rate at exactly the same it was last year, 29 catches on the season for 350 yards.
Based on last year's statistics, with no improvement whatsoever in efficiency or number of carries, this projects Mathews to hit
210 for 910/7 on the ground, 29/350/0 in the air. 1260/7 overall if he plays 16 games.
Tolbert, if we do the exact same thing, extrapolate his 15 game statistics from last year with no changes, projects to hit
194 for 776/11 on the ground, 27/388/0 in the air. 1164/11 overall over 16 games.
Now honestly, I think these guys are both solid buys at their ADP. The Chargers will have a very good offense and will produce lots of touchdowns. Mathews burned a bunch of owners last year (including myself with the 8th overall pick), which has driven his ADP down despite a solid rookie season despite missing 4 games to a HAS. Tolbert has fallen unreasonably far in drafts, and I'm not sure why, other than it is likely that Turner increases Mathews' workload this year. When you bring in a 1st round draft pick for millions of dollars and work on developing that talent, the talent always sees the field. His durability may be a concern, but high ankle sprains, unlike concussions or knee injuries, are less likely to be recurrent.
Neither has looked great in the preseason. Mathews has been inconsistent but explosive, but also lost a fumble. Tolbert has a paltry 2.8 ypc. I envision the first half of the season having the same split as last year, as above, with the balance shifting toward Mathews in the second half. Overall:
Mathews 240/1039/8, 29/350/0
Tolbert 160/640/10, 27/388/0
Based on last year's statistics, with no improvement whatsoever in efficiency or number of carries, this projects Mathews to hit
210 for 910/7 on the ground, 29/350/0 in the air. 1260/7 overall if he plays 16 games.
Tolbert, if we do the exact same thing, extrapolate his 15 game statistics from last year with no changes, projects to hit
194 for 776/11 on the ground, 27/388/0 in the air. 1164/11 overall over 16 games.
Now honestly, I think these guys are both solid buys at their ADP. The Chargers will have a very good offense and will produce lots of touchdowns. Mathews burned a bunch of owners last year (including myself with the 8th overall pick), which has driven his ADP down despite a solid rookie season despite missing 4 games to a HAS. Tolbert has fallen unreasonably far in drafts, and I'm not sure why, other than it is likely that Turner increases Mathews' workload this year. When you bring in a 1st round draft pick for millions of dollars and work on developing that talent, the talent always sees the field. His durability may be a concern, but high ankle sprains, unlike concussions or knee injuries, are less likely to be recurrent.
Neither has looked great in the preseason. Mathews has been inconsistent but explosive, but also lost a fumble. Tolbert has a paltry 2.8 ypc. I envision the first half of the season having the same split as last year, as above, with the balance shifting toward Mathews in the second half. Overall:
Mathews 240/1039/8, 29/350/0
Tolbert 160/640/10, 27/388/0
JuSt CuZ
Footballguy
LOL, yup that ankle sprain also need a big old cast on his elbow, too. :doyourresearch:And the ankle, yeah if once, maybe...but how many times did he hurt it last year alone? :doyourresearch:
When did he show this? Before he injured his ankle (week 1) and after it was healed (weeks 14-17), he averaged 18 carries per game, finishing with a 26 carry game against Denver.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Matthews was getting blasted on the local SD morning show today for hitting the trainer's table after he fumbled (reportedly he tweaked his hamstring). They've started mentioning him and LB English in the same breath as Buster Davis in terms of failed 1st round picks.
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Touchdown There
Footballguy
Mathews never had a cast on his arm. What you saw was a massive tape job. That specific wrap is precautionary after a player hyper-extends their elbow. Beyond the obvious pain of a hyper-extension, the joint becomes weak and at risk for a biceps tear.Trainers add artificial support to prevent further damage. They do this by adding strips of tape from the forearm to the biceps while your arm is bent at a 45 degree angle. The trainers then thickly wrap around the strips. The wrap will be very tight at first, but as the player warms up and gets sweaty, the custom tape job tends to slide and stretch just to the point to where you can use your arm 100%, but is supported from further hyper-extension.The SD beat writer did report another injury to Mathews' wrist:San Diego Chargers RB Ryan Mathews (wrist) underwent surgery in January to repair an injured wrist. Mathews' ankle injury that caused him problems during the season is 100 percent healed.- Acee
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Tolbert was a tailback in college. His window of being a fullback was actually just his first two years out of college.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Did you know that Tolbert had 6 carries for 20+ yards last year, 2 more than Matthews, landing him in a 3 way tie for 18th with Frank Gore (20 more carreis than Tolbert) and Fred Jackson (40 more carries than Tolbert)? Tolbert had 24 more carries than Matthews last year.
mathews has a hurt hamstring now? i cant find this anywhere on the web.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
The implication from the radio was the injury wasn't significant and they were mocking him for running to the training table after fumbling instead of "taking it like a man." I haven't read anything about him hurting his hamstring in that game either.
LittlePhatty
Footballguy
Did you know that this year things will be different than last year?
footballnerd
Footballguy
He was having his forearm/wrist looked at after that fumble.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Change is constant.
Gr00vus
Footballguy
Since my comment was a response to another implying Tolbert is slow, giving some statistics showing Tolbert isn't as slow as he may have thought, are you saying Tolbert is now slower than he was last year? That'd be good information to have. Please cite your measurement techniques when backing up this claim (if indeed you were making such a claim). Otherwise, what's your point exactly?
Short Corner
Footballguy
Loser's Limp
RBM
Footballguy
Are you serious with this? He never had a cast and he had a high ankle sprain in week 2 last year. Those usually last a long time.Wow
Blackjacks
Footballguy
Ryan Mathews - RB - Chargers Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune advises to not count on Ryan Mathews to "carry your running game" in fantasy football.
Acee confirms that Mathews and Mike Tolbert will "split time" in the backfield, with Tolbert vulturing the vast majority of red-zone carries and passing-down work. "Consider Mathews as your number two running back and Tolbert a number three/flex option," writes Acee. The sentiment is as expected. Mathews loses a significant amount of his upside to Tolbert.
Acee confirms that Mathews and Mike Tolbert will "split time" in the backfield, with Tolbert vulturing the vast majority of red-zone carries and passing-down work. "Consider Mathews as your number two running back and Tolbert a number three/flex option," writes Acee. The sentiment is as expected. Mathews loses a significant amount of his upside to Tolbert.
Touchdown There
Footballguy
Does Acee play fantasy? I have heard him on a few podcasts, but this statement does not correlate to Mathews ADP at all. No one is drafting him to carry a fantasy squad. Mathews is going in rounds 4-6, which is RB3 for some folks.
joffer
Footballguy
As much as I love them both, it's blatantly obvious that the better value/ADP is in Tolbert. Scoring him as my RB3 in the 6th made me happy. Mathews went in the 5th, where I snagged my WR3 as Stevie Johnson... had I gone with Mathews in the 5th (I couldn't have), I would have been looking at Garcon/Mike Thomas/Meachem/AJ Green as a WR in the 6th... quite a bit a dropoff there. I'll take stevie and tolbert over mathews/mike thomas any day of the week.
fantasyplayer
Footballguy
Good posting. I own Mathews in my main keeper league, but it seems clear to me the Tolbert is the better VALUE at the current ADP for each. I'll be targeting Tolbert in my other redraft leagues.
bonesman
Footballguy
We Tigers
Footballguy
I actually still kinda like both guys. I have Mathews in one league and Tolbert in another. Mathews' upside is great for a guy coming off in the RB20-25 range--young, has all the physical tools, and his so-so off-season is already built.into his price--and Tolbert seems awfully likely for 800-1000 total yards and around 8+ touchdowns, given how solid he is at the goal line and as a receiver. I got Tolbert as an RB4 in a flex league over the weekend and am pretty pleased to have him as my bye week/injury insurance guy.
I don't think either guy is going to end up with, say, 70% of the team's fantasy points, making both pretty decent value plays on a powerful offense.
I don't think either guy is going to end up with, say, 70% of the team's fantasy points, making both pretty decent value plays on a powerful offense.
The Stuttering Auctioneer
Footballguy
Last night in my 1st live draft of the year Matthews went 4th Rd & was the #19th RB off the board ( His RB#2 ). The owner regretted the pick as he made it but felt like he was the best RB available. Then in Rd9 I took Tolbert as the #35RB off the board ( My #5 RB ). With that said, I hope all my drafts go like that. No reason Matthews cant have a good year if he is healthy but me personally, I rather draft Tolbert late for good value/depth vs Matthews w/ his current ADP.
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Acee didnt write that article anyway. Rotoworld botched it.
Tau837
Footballguy
Yeah, but, come on, Tolbert is more agile!5 for 78 for Mathews tonight, including a 56 yard TD run.
He finishes the preseason 24 carries for 187 yards, 2 TDs. 1 catch, for 9 yards.
Tolbert ends the preseason 14 carries for 39 yards, 0 TDs. 4 catches, 45 yards, and a TD.
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
If the kid stays healthy, he's going to be a monster value play this year.Yeah, but, come on, Tolbert is more agile!5 for 78 for Mathews tonight, including a 56 yard TD run.
He finishes the preseason 24 carries for 187 yards, 2 TDs. 1 catch, for 9 yards.
Tolbert ends the preseason 14 carries for 39 yards, 0 TDs. 4 catches, 45 yards, and a TD.
Fighting Noles
Footballguy
Yep - Matthews started Preseason Week 4 with Volek (& Tolzien handing to him on the SECOND Qtr TD run) while Tolbert, Rivers, VJax, Gates & floyd all sat. Hmmm....Yeah, but, come on, Tolbert is more agile!5 for 78 for Mathews tonight, including a 56 yard TD run.
He finishes the preseason 24 carries for 187 yards, 2 TDs. 1 catch, for 9 yards.
Tolbert ends the preseason 14 carries for 39 yards, 0 TDs. 4 catches, 45 yards, and a TD.
Fighting Noles
Footballguy
The following RB's sat out the Week 4 preseason games: Fred Jackson, Addai, Benson (& Scott), Ray Rice (& Ricky),
Michael Turner, Felix Jones, Reggie Bush, Bradshaw (& Jacobs), McCoy (& Brown), Greene (& LT), Blount, Hightower (& Helu), Forte, Hillis (& Hardesty), AP, Foster (& Tate/Ward), CJ (Obviously), Ingram (& PThomas), Mendy, DWilliams,
Moreno (& McGahee), Gore, & Tolbert....
The only starting RB's who played were teams who played their entire starting units also (QB/WR's, etc):
MJD, SJax, Best, Wells, NEng Backfield, KC Backs, GBay Backs....These teams were giving their starters at least one series
(or more in KC's case - who knows what Haley is doing).
So are you guys really excited that Matthews busted one in the second quarter with the backup QB against SF's backup front 7 - no Willis or other starting LB's/DL's?
He also badly whiffed on a block leading to LB Bowman taking down Volek for a sack...
Michael Turner, Felix Jones, Reggie Bush, Bradshaw (& Jacobs), McCoy (& Brown), Greene (& LT), Blount, Hightower (& Helu), Forte, Hillis (& Hardesty), AP, Foster (& Tate/Ward), CJ (Obviously), Ingram (& PThomas), Mendy, DWilliams,
Moreno (& McGahee), Gore, & Tolbert....
The only starting RB's who played were teams who played their entire starting units also (QB/WR's, etc):
MJD, SJax, Best, Wells, NEng Backfield, KC Backs, GBay Backs....These teams were giving their starters at least one series
(or more in KC's case - who knows what Haley is doing).
So are you guys really excited that Matthews busted one in the second quarter with the backup QB against SF's backup front 7 - no Willis or other starting LB's/DL's?
He also badly whiffed on a block leading to LB Bowman taking down Volek for a sack...
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Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
I have to ask, why is Ryan Mathews doing anything in a week #4 preseason game? Why would Norv rest Tolbert the entire game? Preseason 4 games are scrub matches. Why is this game of any relevance or change anything?5 for 78 for Mathews tonight, including a 56 yard TD run. He finishes the preseason 24 carries for 187 yards, 2 TDs. 1 catch, for 9 yards.Tolbert ends the preseason 14 carries for 39 yards, 0 TDs. 4 catches, 45 yards, and a TD.
Raiderfan32904
Footballguy
No you din't just compare him to HIM!!!
tommyGunZ
Footballguy
Lots of starters play in the 4th preseason game. I don't think Norv wanted to give Todman 35 touches. Mathews got all of 5 carries and was spectacular. As someone who believes Mathews is a value play this year, I couldn't be happier with his ~ 8 ypc and 2 TDs this preseason. He's been healthy and shown big time explosiveness. I think the preseason carry breakdown between Mathews and Tolbert is about what it'll be all season - Mathews getting almost double.I have to ask, why is Ryan Mathews doing anything in a week #4 preseason game? Why would Norv rest Tolbert the entire game? Preseason 4 games are scrub matches. Why is this game of any relevance or change anything?5 for 78 for Mathews tonight, including a 56 yard TD run. He finishes the preseason 24 carries for 187 yards, 2 TDs. 1 catch, for 9 yards.Tolbert ends the preseason 14 carries for 39 yards, 0 TDs. 4 catches, 45 yards, and a TD.
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