Ryan Mathews will not break 1000 yds rushing this year (1 Viewer)

[Balco]

There will be no 8 man fronts against Mathews like there were at Fresno. The Chargers have an elite qb and an elite passing game, that defenses are forced to respect.

What good players have come from Fresno? Last dude was journeyman QB, and the one before that was another journeyman QB with a better career in broadcasting. Lets do an analysis of Fresno first rounders, and see the results.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

There will be no 8 man fronts against Mathews like there were at Fresno. The Chargers have an elite qb and an elite passing game, that defenses are forced to respect.

What good players have come from Fresno? Last dude was journeyman QB, and the one before that was another journeyman QB with a better career in broadcasting. Lets do an analysis of Fresno first rounders, and see the results.

What about Mississippi Valley state before Jerry Rice? East Carolina before Chris Johnson??? etc, etc.

 

[Balco]

Adrian Peterson commonly went in the 5th round of redrafts as a rookie. I'm somewhat confident that we can agree that Peterson > Matthews. So, is everyone really, truly confident that Matthews situation warrants an upward move of 36 slots on the draft list? I was one of many that made sure that I got Peterson that year. It seemed like a no-brainer to me. Matthews doesn't seem like the same no-brainer, and it's costing so much more.I don't get it.

Firstly, I think Peterson was more of a 2nd-3rd rounder that season in most drafts. He probably even went late 1st in many leagues. 5th round does not ring true to me. Secondly, I don't think Peterson is a horrible comparison. That's actually a pretty good comparison in terms of body type, playing style, and skill set. Both are upright runners with good long speed and deceptive elusiveness/power. Peterson is a better version of the same player, but Mathews isn't miles behind. I don't see why he can't come in and be successful. No one has really provided a good reason yet other than "Gee...well...he hasn't done it yet."

And you haven't provided a good reason why he will other than "Gee ...well...I watched him play at Fresno St and dominate again Utah St"

You know you can analyze the talents of a back regardless of the team he faces right? For the record, this is what I wrote after watching him play every snap of the Rutgers game his sophomore year (2008):RYAN MATTHEWS, RUNNING BACK (5'11 210) SOPHOMORE (#21)Stats: 26 carries 163 yards (6.3 avg) 3 tds; 1 catch 20 yardsThe real deal. Hits the hole hard and aside from one play, won't bounce the ball to the outside until he gets past the first wave of defenders. Runs a bit upright. Tremendous balance, always falls forward when he is tackled. Reads blocks well, sees the hole and accelerates through it. Deceptive speed. Workhorse, gets better with more carries. Nose for the end zone. Definitely one to watch.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

Peterson didn't start as a rookie (and wasn't expected to).

I get the coachspeak and everything, but he had 19 carries in his first game. Followed by 20, 25, 12, 20, 12, 20, 30, etc.

Chester Taylor was injured for the first three games.If you don't like my explanation for why Adrian Peterson wasn't drafted very high as a rookie (in redraft leagues), what's yours? Other than the fact that he was in an RBBC, what wasn't to like?

Starter or not, homey was getting work, as most expected he would. Anyone who saw him run at Nebraska knew he was special. While I'm sure Matthews is capable, and I do believe he will do well, I don't think he sniffs Peterson's jock.

Exactly. So why is Mathews' ADP so much higher than Peterson's was? My answer: Because Peterson didn't start as a rookie (and wasn't expected to).

So, some questions:- Bigger threat to touches, Sproles or Taylor? I'd say it's a wash.- Better line? Vikings- Better offense? Chargers- Easier competition? Slight edge to Chargers

Taylor was a far bigger threat to get touches. When both guys were healthy in 2007, Peterson got 1.7 times as many carries as Taylor. When both Tomlinson and Sproles were healthy last year, Tomlinson got 3.5 times as many carries as Sproles.I don't think anyone believes that Sproles will steal substantially more carries from Mathews this year than he did from Tomlinson last year.

 

[sholditch]

What's the reason for your contrarian view Gianmarco? I think the reason the bullish view is the consensus one is because there's a lot to back up the optimism, not the least of which the head coach (noted for a good running attack) has come out and put out very specific expectations for the rookie. Combine that with the fact he was a first rounder, on a team without competition for carries (Turner has already said Sproles is there to to what he did last year...play great special teams and catch passes) and a comfort level that it's hardly unusual for rookie RBs to be fantasy stars, and I think it's easy to project the upside. I'm not saying the downside doesn't have merit, but what's behind it other than you feel that way?

The reason is this:

SD ranked 31st in the league last year in rushing and was dead last in YPC at 3.3 yards per carry. That's not good. In fact, I think it's amazing and it's something that's being overlooked. No team ran worse as a team in terms of gaining yards per carry in the entire NFL. I know LT isn't what he used to be, but Sproles also struggled. I know there were injuries, missing players, etc. from the line, but I don't see them improving that dramatically when it hasn't been addressed substantially as far as I know. Was last year a fluke? Well, not really, since in 2008 they were also pretty bad, ranking 20th in the NFL and only managing 4.1 ypc.

So, now we have a rookie coming in, no major changes to the line, and a coach who has said he'll get about 250 carries. Well, unless he cracks that 4.0 ypc mark, that doesn't = 1000 yds. Is it possible he goes over 250 carries? Of course it is, but I don't see that happening. Is it possible he cracks 4.0 ypc? Definitely, but it's going to be close. I can see him being somewhere in the 3.8-4.2 range. Either way it's going to be pretty close to 1000 yds and that's if things go well. If he misses a game or two, reports late to camp, doesn't pick up pass protection well, or any other number of things, and his margin for error to hit that 1000 yd mark now gets even smaller.

Not many rookies come in and perform at a high level, especially when the burden is placed directly on them unless they have a good O-line to run behind. LT didn't when he came in. Lynch didn't. There just seems to be this assumption that SD is so good and it's going to be automatic for him. I don't see it working out that way.

Again, this is for 2010. And I think he'll improve as the year goes on as well. But there's going to be some growing pains and that doesn't seem to be considered by the vast majority of people. The vast majority sees SD = good offense = only RB = top 10 RB. That equation doesn't seem right to me.

Why is it so few see this?

*cough* Bills were 8th in the league in ypc last year *cough cough*

 

[EBF]

Beast? The guy gained 758 yds on 73 carries against UC Davis, San Jose St, Boise St and Utah St,,,without those games against obviously lame teams, he only had 1050yds on 203 carries for only 5 ydc. Beast? I think not...even Lonyae Miller on the same team averaged 5.2 ydc...and the year before average almost a 1.5 ydc better than Matthews and he wasn't even drafted. Way too much emotion tied to the Mathews arguement....open you eyes a little, it will help you to see

You're right, I should listen to a guy named DansRams on the internet because he knows more than the Chargers front office, who have guided the team to four consecutive playoff appearances. Give me a break. I understand that people have opinions about players and I respect that, but sometimes people take it so far that they lose touch with reality. The Chargers have an entire organization of paid professionals designed to identify good football players. These people were well aware of the fact that Mathews played in a non-BCS conference and that his backup also had a solid YPC average, yet they still liked him enough to draft him in the early first round (while sacrificing another early draft pick to secure his services). They will invest millions of dollars in him and hand him a starting job on a platter. That carries weight with me. Even though Mathews is going early in most rookie drafts, there is still this bizarre movement on these boards insisting that he's an average talent. With few exceptions, average talents don't rush for 150 yards per game, run the 40 in 4.4 seconds at 220 pounds, and get selected in the top 15 of the NFL draft by a team so desperate to acquire them that it's willing to sacrifice another top 40 pick to do it. Virtually all of the objective factors suggest that Ryan Mathews is anything but an average talent. I tend to put more stock in that than the opinions of questionable message board posters, many of whom have probably never even watched Ryan Mathews play an entire game (let alone sifted through tens of hours of Mathews film like the actual NFL scouts who endorsed his status as a top 15 player in the draft). I get that this website is all about personal opinions. We like to make bold calls and pat ourselves on the back. I don't mind that, but I also try not to let the abundance of nonsense cloud my views. People are trying to make the Mathews situation very complicated when in fact it's very simple. The Chargers struggled to run the ball last year because their only two options were an over-the-hill veteran with no burst and an undersized return man. Recognizing this deficiency, they made running back an offseason priority and paid a handsome price to secure Ryan Mathews, widely regarded as the best "every down" RB prospect in the draft because of his speed, size, and production. Mathews was a solid lock for the first round, which is why San Diego had to move up to get him. They'll plug him into their starting role and give him every opportunity to succeed. Based on his first round pedigree, he probably won't disappoint them.

 

[DansRams]

Beast? The guy gained 758 yds on 73 carries against UC Davis, San Jose St, Boise St and Utah St,,,without those games against obviously lame teams, he only had 1050yds on 203 carries for only 5 ydc. Beast? I think not...even Lonyae Miller on the same team averaged 5.2 ydc...and the year before average almost a 1.5 ydc better than Matthews and he wasn't even drafted. Way too much emotion tied to the Mathews arguement....open you eyes a little, it will help you to see

Hahaha. First off Boise State as a lame team???If you want to cherry pick stats....take out one game last year vs Georgia Tech(68th run D...hardly good) and Spiller didn't even run for 1000 yards and that's only taking out one of his games lol.

Can you name 3 NFL players that came from the Boise St defense the last couple of years?...and please don't compare ACC competition to WAC competition...it makes you look silly

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

Beast? The guy gained 758 yds on 73 carries against UC Davis, San Jose St, Boise St and Utah St,,,without those games against obviously lame teams, he only had 1050yds on 203 carries for only 5 ydc. Beast? I think not...even Lonyae Miller on the same team averaged 5.2 ydc...and the year before average almost a 1.5 ydc better than Matthews and he wasn't even drafted. Way too much emotion tied to the Mathews arguement....open you eyes a little, it will help you to see

Hahaha. First off Boise State as a lame team???If you want to cherry pick stats....take out one game last year vs Georgia Tech(68th run D...hardly good) and Spiller didn't even run for 1000 yards and that's only taking out one of his games lol.

Can you name 3 NFL players that came from the Boise St defense the last couple of years?...and please don't compare ACC competition to WAC competition...it makes you look silly

B/c I'm the one that looks silly here

 

[Instinctive]

What are they going to do while VJax is out? Throw it to Gates 20 times a game?

God I hope so. Gates in the 5th anyone?

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Give me a break. I understand that people have opinions about players and I respect that, but sometimes people take it so far that they lose touch with reality. The Chargers have an entire organization of paid professionals designed to identify good football players. These people were well aware of the fact that Mathews played in a non-BCS conference and that his backup also had a solid YPC average, yet they still liked him enough to draft him in the early first round (while sacrificing another early draft pick to secure his services). They will invest millions of dollars in him and hand him a starting job on a platter.

And that makes them singularly different from 31 other teams?

That carries weight with me.

Really? I have to ask why? The Chargers GM has proudly wagered his future on his curious policy of rewarding below avg talented RB's and watching real talent escape for nothing. The lines on both side have regressed. What about the current Chargers brass impresses you? Is it, "In AJ we trust?"

Even though Mathews is going early in most rookie drafts, there is still this bizarre movement on these boards insisting that he's an average talent. With few exceptions, average talents don't rush for 150 yards per game, run the 40 in 4.4 seconds at 220 pounds, and get selected in the top 15 of the NFL draft by a team so desperate to acquire them that it's willing to sacrifice another top 40 pick to do it. Virtually all of the objective factors suggest that Ryan Mathews is anything but an average talent. I tend to put more stock in that than the opinions of questionable message board posters, many of whom have probably never even watched Ryan Mathews play an entire game (let alone sifted through tens of hours of Mathews film like the actual NFL scouts who endorsed his status as a top 15 player in the draft).

OK, for sake of argument, let's say he is as good as advertised. He is in a less than ideal situation. And the transition from Fresno to the NFL is going to be more than just running off tackle. There are so many complex schemes and protection packages he'll have to learn. And losing McNiel will hurt in both running and protecting. RB is more than just carring the ball.

I get that this website is all about personal opinions. We like to make bold calls and pat ourselves on the back. I don't mind that, but I also try not to let the abundance of nonsense cloud my views. People are trying to make the Mathews situation very complicated when in fact it's very simple. The Chargers struggled to run the ball last year because their only two options were an over-the-hill veteran with no burst and an undersized return man. Recognizing this deficiency, they made running back an offseason priority and paid a handsome price to secure Ryan Mathews, widely regarded as the best "every down" RB prospect in the draft because of his speed, size, and production. Mathews was a solid lock for the first round, which is why San Diego had to move up to get him. They'll plug him into their starting role and give him every opportunity to succeed. Based on his first round pedigree, he probably won't disappoint them.

Going out and getting a first round back before upgrading the line is literally putting the cart before the horse. And first round pedigree? How many top 10 picks struggle their first year? DHB

 

[EBF]

And that makes them singularly different from 31 other teams?

Nope. Draft position is a huge predictor of success regardless of who's pulling the strings.Having said that, I definitely lend more credence to organizations that have a strong recent track record of competence. One of the reasons why I'm down on Spiller compared to Mathews/Best is because I believe the Bills are a rudderless ship destined for several more losing seasons whereas the Chargers and Lions appear to be implementing a sound plan for building/maintaining a winning team. As a Golden State Warriors fan, I have come to understand that some teams always find a way to screw up this process. Usually it's bad ownership and not bad scouting at the root.

Really? I have to ask why? The Chargers GM has proudly wagered his future on his curious policy of rewarding below avg talented RB's and watching real talent escape for nothing. The lines on both side have regressed. What about the current Chargers brass impresses you? Is it, "In AJ we trust?"

They have won their division four out of the past five years. That qualifies them as a competent organization in my book. Maybe we have different definitions.

OK, for sake of argument, let's say he is as good as advertised. He is in a less than ideal situation. And the transition from Fresno to the NFL is going to be more than just running off tackle. There are so many complex schemes and protection packages he'll have to learn. And losing McNiel will hurt in both running and protecting. RB is more than just carring the ball.

I don't buy it. RB is far and away one of the easiest positions to play in the NFL if the prospect in question has the requisite skill set. It has basically zero learning curve, which is the primary reason why so many players are instantly effective at this position.

Going out and getting a first round back before upgrading the line is literally putting the cart before the horse.

Says who? If the Chargers traded up to get a RB instead of an OL then we might assume that they felt RB was the more acute need. They are more familiar with their personnel and needs than myself, so I'm apt to trust their judgment.

And first round pedigree? How many top 10 picks struggle their first year? DHB

DHB was a WR (much different position in terms of instant success) drafted by a terrible franchise with a strong record of making disastrous draft picks. Is there any reason to believe that Mathews is more like DHB than Peterson/J-Stew/Mendenhall/CJ3? No, it's just a lazy example of a draft bust that conveniently suits your pessimistic viewpoint.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

EBF,

I couldn't disagree with you more on this, but I will respectfully agree to disagree with you on all your points. We share different opinions on Matthews. I am only down on him for redraft, not dynasty.

 

[Manster]

just posted about Mathews in the fools gold thread.

i'll regurgitate............basically he's coming into a good situation, yes, but a mid 1st round pick? thats too rich for my blood. i'll let someone else gamble with him.

 

[gianmarco]

What's the reason for your contrarian view Gianmarco? I think the reason the bullish view is the consensus one is because there's a lot to back up the optimism, not the least of which the head coach (noted for a good running attack) has come out and put out very specific expectations for the rookie. Combine that with the fact he was a first rounder, on a team without competition for carries (Turner has already said Sproles is there to to what he did last year...play great special teams and catch passes) and a comfort level that it's hardly unusual for rookie RBs to be fantasy stars, and I think it's easy to project the upside. I'm not saying the downside doesn't have merit, but what's behind it other than you feel that way?

The reason is this:

SD ranked 31st in the league last year in rushing and was dead last in YPC at 3.3 yards per carry. That's not good. In fact, I think it's amazing and it's something that's being overlooked. No team ran worse as a team in terms of gaining yards per carry in the entire NFL. I know LT isn't what he used to be, but Sproles also struggled. I know there were injuries, missing players, etc. from the line, but I don't see them improving that dramatically when it hasn't been addressed substantially as far as I know. Was last year a fluke? Well, not really, since in 2008 they were also pretty bad, ranking 20th in the NFL and only managing 4.1 ypc.

So, now we have a rookie coming in, no major changes to the line, and a coach who has said he'll get about 250 carries. Well, unless he cracks that 4.0 ypc mark, that doesn't = 1000 yds. Is it possible he goes over 250 carries? Of course it is, but I don't see that happening. Is it possible he cracks 4.0 ypc? Definitely, but it's going to be close. I can see him being somewhere in the 3.8-4.2 range. Either way it's going to be pretty close to 1000 yds and that's if things go well. If he misses a game or two, reports late to camp, doesn't pick up pass protection well, or any other number of things, and his margin for error to hit that 1000 yd mark now gets even smaller.

Not many rookies come in and perform at a high level, especially when the burden is placed directly on them unless they have a good O-line to run behind. LT didn't when he came in. Lynch didn't. There just seems to be this assumption that SD is so good and it's going to be automatic for him. I don't see it working out that way.

Again, this is for 2010. And I think he'll improve as the year goes on as well. But there's going to be some growing pains and that doesn't seem to be considered by the vast majority of people. The vast majority sees SD = good offense = only RB = top 10 RB. That equation doesn't seem right to me.

Why is it so few see this?

B/c we saw this:

Just because you bypassed him at 1.02 and took Spiller instead is no reason to throw spitwads at Mathews.

What on earth does this post mean?

 

[gianmarco]

It seems that the most logical argument so far is the fact that the Chargers' offensive line will hold back Ryan Mathews. So I took a look at rookie RBs that got 200+ carries since 2003 that were drafted to a team that averaged < 4.00 ypc the previous year. Results with year-end ranking in parantheses:2008: Matt Forte, (4th), Rushing yards: 1238, CHI Previous year YPC: 3.352008: Steve Slaton (6th), 2010 Rushing Yards: 1282, HOU Previous year YPC: 3.932008: Chris Johnson (11th), Rushing Yards: 1228, TEN Previous year YPC: 3.892007: Marshawn Lynch (12th), Rushing Yards: 1115, BUF Previous year YPC: 3.762006: Joseph Addai (11th), Rushing Yards: 1081, IND Previous year YPC: 3.942005: Ronnie Brown (23rd), Rushing Yards: 907, MIA Previous year YPC: 3.512004: Willis McGahee (9th), Rushing Yards: 1128, BUF Previous year YPC: 3.952004: Kevin Jones (21st), Rushing Yards: 1133, DET Previous year YPC: 3.492003: Domanick Williams (Davis) (14th), Rushing Yards: 1031, Houston Previous year YPC: 2.98So only Ronnie Brown didn't reach the 1,000 yard mark in a season where he only got 52% of the Dolphins RB rushing attempts. Barring injury, Mathews will get more than 52% of the carries this year in SD. Kevin Jones (5 TDs) and Williams (a 4th draft pick) were the only 2 to finish outside the top-12 RBs.Mathews' talent will show (he went in the top half of the first round and his collegiate competition didn't seem to matter to San Diego) and as long as he gets 250+ carries like we're all expecting, he's going to produce.

This is definitely encouraging for Mathews and not anything I would have expected. It could be that using last year's poor O-line performance as a reason for him to not perform well isn't enough. Thanks for posting this

So it follows that the formula of first round RB + crap O line from previous year = fantasy success?This sounds like a flawed mutually exclusive argument. Liars figure and figures, they lie. I don't think that one leads the other.Does this formula factor in losing your WR #1, LT #1, and below avg WR corp? Matthews lacks the playmakers necessary to create space and the line is worse than last year. Does that analysis adjust for receding O line talent. I don't hate Mattews talent. It just seems like a recipe for him to struggle and still find some success, but not nearly where some have his ADP.

No, it doesn't follow that formula. There are also rookie RBs who have struggled with over 200 carries. However, the above just shows that it is definitely possible for Mathews to significantly outperform what SD did as a running team. While I realized I could be wrong in posting this, I'm much more open to the possibility of Mathews proving me wrong this coming year. The above post doesn't change my thoughts on how he'll do but it does change how confident I am in that feeling.

 

[TeamSnooki]

I thought I liked Mathews a fair amount and I still think I do, but it seems like others have gone way overboard with the love affair.

SD couldn't run the ball last yr. Are there reasons to think they can do better this year?

Who truly knows how good he is anyway?

I'll take him in the 3rd and I do think he hits 1000 yards, but I don't see him ending up on my teams other than the leagues I'm in with buffoons.

 

[EBF]

I just went back and looked at every RB drafted in the first round in the last 15 years. I then cut that list to only include the players who received 200+ carries in their rookie season. Chronologically that gives you 20 players:

Player - Carries/Yards

Knowshon Moreno - 247/947

Chris Johnson - 251/1228

Adrian Peterson - 238/1341

Marshawn Lynch - 280/1115

Joseph Addai - 226/1081

Ronnie Brown - 207/907

Cadillac Williams - 290/1178

Kevin Jones - 241/1133

William Green - 243/887

LaDainian Tomlinson - 339/1236

Jamal Lewis - 309/1364

Ron Dayne - 228/770

Edgerrin James - 369/1553

Ricky Williams - 253/884

Fred Taylor - 264/1223

Robert Edwards - 291/1115

Warrick Dunn - 224/978

Eddie George - 335/1368

Rashaan Salaam - 296/1074

Marshall Faulk - 314/1282

The average rushing total for this group is 1133 yards.

70% of first round rookie backs who received 200+ carries in their rookie seasons broke the 1000 yards barrier.

I think this bodes well for Mathews. I think it supports the idea that he will probably rush for 1000+ yards this season unless he doesn't get 200+ carries, which would probably only happen if he were to get injured or be such a big disappointment that his coaches won't give him enough carries to get there. Those are two realistic possibilities, but injury risk is a factor for every player (even Gore, ADP, CJ3, etc), so it doesn't make Mathews any more risky than a proven player.

The only reasons I can think of why we should expect a poor season would be a very poor YPC and/or a lack of opportunity. Given San Diego's lack of compelling alternatives in the running game and loss of a key weapon in the passing game, I find the latter unlikely. Mathews will have to really, really suck to stay healthy for 16 games and still fail to exceed 200 carries because the team is going to run the ball 300+ times and he figures to get the lion's share of that by far.

I'll say he's a near lock for 1000+ yards if he gets the 250 carries suggested by the coaches and a real threat for 1200+ yards if his carry total exceeds 280.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

he really was not an overly talented guy in college

- Averaged 150 rushing yards per game last year at 6.6 YPC. - Ran a 4.45 40 at 218 pounds.

- Was picked in the top 15 of the NFL draft.

Not overly talented though.

Against what competition? What conference did he play in? C'mon now EBF, you're way smarter than just to fall for a few numbers. Lot of guys had big numbers in college. If you like him that's fine but I don't find him special.

It's utterly absurd to say that someone who led the entire NCAA in rushing yards per game was "not an overly talented guy in college." Completely ridiculous statement that has no basis in reality. Whether or not you think Mathews is a legit pro prospect, there's no disputing that he was a complete beast last year.

I'm late to the party, but do you remember Ron Dayne? He was pretty darn good in college. Against better competition. So let's not pretend that college production is the single biggest determinant of NFL production.

 

[EBF]

he really was not an overly talented guy in college

- Averaged 150 rushing yards per game last year at 6.6 YPC. - Ran a 4.45 40 at 218 pounds.

- Was picked in the top 15 of the NFL draft.

Not overly talented though.

Against what competition? What conference did he play in? C'mon now EBF, you're way smarter than just to fall for a few numbers. Lot of guys had big numbers in college. If you like him that's fine but I don't find him special.

It's utterly absurd to say that someone who led the entire NCAA in rushing yards per game was "not an overly talented guy in college." Completely ridiculous statement that has no basis in reality. Whether or not you think Mathews is a legit pro prospect, there's no disputing that he was a complete beast last year.

I'm late to the party, but do you remember Ron Dayne? He was pretty darn good in college. Against better competition. So let's not pretend that college production is the single biggest determinant of NFL production.

I never pretended that it is.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I never pretended that it is.

Then why even bother with that post???Regardless, I'm with your overall stance in here. Matthews is likely to break 1000 yards, if he stays healthy. For all the reasons you've articulated.This was an interesting thread, wish I had seen it earlier today.

 

[Abrantes]

I never pretended that it is.

Then why even bother with that post???

Because the previous post was dismissing Mathews' college production, not his NFL potential.

 

[Catbird]

Good thread. But I am confused about what is being projected here. The argument seems to be whether Mathews will gain 1,000 yards and whether he is deservedly a first rounder in redraft. Aren't those 2 things pretty different? The FBG staff projections have between 15 and 18 guys logging 1,000 rush yards. If 18, 1K gets you mid-second quality, and less than that in a 10 teamer.

I think Gianmarco, Raidersfan and others raise a number of reasons to be less than thrilled with Mathews '10 prospects - not the least of which is that rookies are just unpredicable and the wall often cuts short even good seasons. With a weak SD OL and upright style that can leave hits taking a higher toll, there are lots of concerns ... but there are a lot of good things about his situation too and he appears to have very good talent. I think Mathews offers a good deal more than Moreno, at least in dynasty.

It seems to me that although 1,000 is likely, and maybe 1,100 is supportable, that still doesn't get him into the first round of a redraft without better than average receiving - which I think is a big reach to project year 1. I think the 1k is just about right or slightly low, and that this makes him a legit early to mid second rounder, with risk/and some reward upside (or he can be William Green). You don't get a first rounder out of me for him.

But you can get more than you will for Gianmarco's pet: Spiller.

 

[msommer]

he really was not an overly talented guy in college

- Averaged 150 rushing yards per game last year at 6.6 YPC. - Ran a 4.45 40 at 218 pounds.

- Was picked in the top 15 of the NFL draft.

Not overly talented though.

Against what competition? What conference did he play in? C'mon now EBF, you're way smarter than just to fall for a few numbers. Lot of guys had big numbers in college. If you like him that's fine but I don't find him special.

It's utterly absurd to say that someone who led the entire NCAA in rushing yards per game was "not an overly talented guy in college." Completely ridiculous statement that has no basis in reality. Whether or not you think Mathews is a legit pro prospect, there's no disputing that he was a complete beast last year.

I'm late to the party, but do you remember Ron Dayne? He was pretty darn good in college. Against better competition. So let's not pretend that college production is the single biggest determinant of NFL production.

I remember JJ Arrington leading the NCAA in rushing yards as well.Anyway that particular statement does not carry so much weight, with me at least for NFL or FF purposes.

Catbird, good post!

 

[Doug Drinen]

I can even remember the last time a rookie was a Top 12 fantasy pick at RB.

Fun trip down memory lane here. Rookie RB ADPs since 2000:2006 Reggie Bush 122010 Ryan Mathews 122001 Michael Bennett 142000 Ron Dayne 162000 Jamal Lewis 182001 LaDainian Tomlinson 182005 Cadillac Williams 202008 Darren McFadden 202006 Joseph Addai 222007 Adrian Peterson 222005 J.J. Arrington 222006 Mike Bell 232007 Marshawn Lynch 242000 Thomas Jones 242002 Clinton Portis 242010 Jahvid Best 24

Where did this come from Doug? I just pulled up my drafts from 2007, and the earliest I drafted Peterson was in the 4th. In fact, the more I look at that list, none of it seems right to me.

The number listed their is the positional ADP. I.e. Peterson was RB22. His overall ADP was 43.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

Good thread. But I am confused about what is being projected here. The argument seems to be whether Mathews will gain 1,000 yards and whether he is deservedly a first rounder in redraft. Aren't those 2 things pretty different? The FBG staff projections have between 15 and 18 guys logging 1,000 rush yards. If 18, 1K gets you mid-second quality, and less than that in a 10 teamer. I think Gianmarco, Raidersfan and others raise a number of reasons to be less than thrilled with Mathews '10 prospects - not the least of which is that rookies are just unpredicable and the wall often cuts short even good seasons. With a weak SD OL and upright style that can leave hits taking a higher toll, there are lots of concerns ... but there are a lot of good things about his situation too and he appears to have very good talent. I think Mathews offers a good deal more than Moreno, at least in dynasty. It seems to me that although 1,000 is likely, and maybe 1,100 is supportable, that still doesn't get him into the first round of a redraft without better than average receiving - which I think is a big reach to project year 1. I think the 1k is just about right or slightly low, and that this makes him a legit early to mid second rounder, with risk/and some reward upside (or he can be William Green). You don't get a first rounder out of me for him. But you can get more than you will for Gianmarco's pet: Spiller.

I must say, that is an excellent summary of this thread so far. The focus is whether or not Matthews can rush for 1000 yards. I think it is entirely possible. But I think that is close to his ceiling. Others are willing to spend a high pick to see if they catch some rookie gold. He definitely is worth a 3rd rounder because of his situation in San Diego. Even then, I personally will pass, as I don't like the upside. I might sound pessimistic on him overall, but I think, in part, it's a natural reaction to hearing people talk about in the first round.Catbird is the voice of reason here.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Good morning everyone,

I wanted to address a couple things because I felt like the posts were snowballing yesterday and I refuse to get into a screaming match over one or two points. Again I will repeat that I was a big fan of Ryan Mathews before the NFL draft and then started to back off that opinion. You can pull up the threads from early Spring for Mathews if you care to and you can see what I posted. I think I am entitled to change my opinion or come off that stance if I choose to.

Level of competition seemed to strike a nerve and I want to cover that in this post. I never posted that stars in the NFL do not emerge from lesser programs or from smaller schools. We have examples of it but it certainly is not the norm in the NFL. A much larger chunk of players in the NFL play at big time programs in college. That doesn't mean that players cannot come out of lesser known schools. But to me we jumped the shark when we start throwing around LT or Chris Johnson. Again pull the Chris Johnson thread from 2008 before the draft and you will find me in there leading the charge, I'm well aware of smaller school guys and sometimes like Chris Johnson it is obvious they are special. LT looked amazing even in his HS films.

I'm disappointed because in another thread yesterday we talked about things in the SP that cloud judgement when folks post. And it came up that posters sometimes have tunnel vision. You want to look past certain things but I found a few of the posts in here to truly not be sincere in wanting to debate, they were much more flame thrower like. I would hope at this stage of the game that folks would know I don't just post to try and get under someone's skin. I was having a debate with EBF, and he and I go way back so perhaps we take some liberties with each other that we might not do with other posters. I do this with guys like EBF, Gainmarco, David Yudkin and mostly because if things get heated its not personal. But when someone asks "Do you watch the games?" That's like asking if you clean up after going to the bathroom...it's not a question that should be dignified with an answer. No matter how that question is answered it's a lose lose situation for the poster being asked. It's not genuine, it feels like it is being asked with malice. Especially after EBF and I went into detail combing thru the Fresno St schedule.

I also find the act of coming over the top of two people debating and saying this guy is owned, you lose, etc...those are only posted because you obviously agree with what is being said against that poster. It's unnecesary and does not stimulate conversation/debate, it only makes others not want to post.

I'm a big boy, I've been posting a long time in here, I can handle myself but I can clearly see how soemone who might be a little new in here would be scared to death to say anything. Please guys, I didn't point the finger at any one psoter so please don't take it personal. It's not meant to be but where I come from a player's level of competition is a legitimate concern.

My best example of a player that went to a small school and laid the foundation for a fruitful NFL career was a boy that marched into Doak Campbell Stadium in 1989 when FSU was in the middle of their run and typically finishing 2nd every year to the mighty Hurricanes...anyways this young man marched down the field with very little time remaining in the game and calmly stood under center, took the ball, naked bootleg roll to his left as a right handed QB and flipped the ball into the end zone for the game winning score. This Qb was of course none other than Brett Favre.

It's a team game no doubt, but few QBs in the 80s and 90s can lay claim to beating the Seminoles on the road. To me that's a defining game. Some in here feel mathews had that moment against Boise St and not 1, not 2, but 3 seperate 60 yd runs. That' fine, i respect that and if I didn't show that I apologize. But I question that schedule and several other respected writers and site owners out there that specialize in nothign but the NFL draft have called into question this concern as well. I hope Ryan Mathews excels at the next level because it only broadens the talent pool, we all win in that sense.

Thanks for reading this folks and I hope it better explains where I was coming from.

Cheers,

MOP

 

[Tanner9919]

Just because you bypassed him at 1.02 and took Spiller instead is no reason to throw spitwads at Mathews.

It's even more of a reason as it would look silly if I took him but then posted this. There's a reason I passed on him, although it's more to do with what I think of Spiller and much less to do with what I think of Best and Mathews. And, despite the fact that you may not have read very carefully, I actually like both Mathews AND Best a good bit (much more than other rookies in the recent past).I just don't think Mathews is going to be this top 10 RB in 2010 like many seem to think. To me, it seems many are looking at him being the sole ball carrier and that he's some lock for 1200 yds and double digit TDs. The SD O-line isn't as good as people think and I don't see Mathews approaching 300 carries as a rookie. I think it's going to take some time for him.

1200 and double digit TD's constitutes a top 10 RB? sounds like Ryan Grant-like numbers, i.e., RB #13 or so..if that's the case I'll take Mathews in a NY minute.Chargers finished in the middle of the pack in terms of rush attempts, 11th in rush tds, 31st in rush yards - with a hobbled worn down LT2 rushing the football...

you don't think Mathews can do better than Tomlinson's paltry 3.3 ypc avg?

what I like most is the rush TD ranking - 11th..Mathews should easily help them improve this stat.

while I'm not one to put Mathews in the top 10, I could see him pulling down RB #12-13 stats...perhaps a carbon copy of Ryan Grant.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

I never pretended that it is.

Then why even bother with that post???

Because the previous post was dismissing Mathews' college production, not his NFL potential.

So? Unless his college production has some great meaning, the debate is irrelevant.

 

[Alex P Keaton]

Good thread. But I am confused about what is being projected here. The argument seems to be whether Mathews will gain 1,000 yards and whether he is deservedly a first rounder in redraft. Aren't those 2 things pretty different? The FBG staff projections have between 15 and 18 guys logging 1,000 rush yards. If 18, 1K gets you mid-second quality, and less than that in a 10 teamer.

I think Gianmarco, Raidersfan and others raise a number of reasons to be less than thrilled with Mathews '10 prospects - not the least of which is that rookies are just unpredicable and the wall often cuts short even good seasons. With a weak SD OL and upright style that can leave hits taking a higher toll, there are lots of concerns ... but there are a lot of good things about his situation too and he appears to have very good talent. I think Mathews offers a good deal more than Moreno, at least in dynasty.

It seems to me that although 1,000 is likely, and maybe 1,100 is supportable, that still doesn't get him into the first round of a redraft without better than average receiving - which I think is a big reach to project year 1. I think the 1k is just about right or slightly low, and that this makes him a legit early to mid second rounder, with risk/and some reward upside (or he can be William Green). You don't get a first rounder out of me for him.

But you can get more than you will for Gianmarco's pet: Spiller.

It's possible that some of us were oddly confused by the debate in this thread -- is Matthews worthy of his ADP -- and the actual thread title "Ryan Matthews will not break 1000 yds rushing this year."It's fairly likely that, barring injury, Matthews will break 1000 yards. As you point out above, that doesn't necessarily mean he will be worth his ADP.

Great post overall.

 

[Buckna]

Good thread. But I am confused about what is being projected here. The argument seems to be whether Mathews will gain 1,000 yards and whether he is deservedly a first rounder in redraft. Aren't those 2 things pretty different? The FBG staff projections have between 15 and 18 guys logging 1,000 rush yards. If 18, 1K gets you mid-second quality, and less than that in a 10 teamer. I think Gianmarco, Raidersfan and others raise a number of reasons to be less than thrilled with Mathews '10 prospects - not the least of which is that rookies are just unpredicable and the wall often cuts short even good seasons. With a weak SD OL and upright style that can leave hits taking a higher toll, there are lots of concerns ... but there are a lot of good things about his situation too and he appears to have very good talent. I think Mathews offers a good deal more than Moreno, at least in dynasty. It seems to me that although 1,000 is likely, and maybe 1,100 is supportable, that still doesn't get him into the first round of a redraft without better than average receiving - which I think is a big reach to project year 1. I think the 1k is just about right or slightly low, and that this makes him a legit early to mid second rounder, with risk/and some reward upside (or he can be William Green). You don't get a first rounder out of me for him. But you can get more than you will for Gianmarco's pet: Spiller.

I must say, that is an excellent summary of this thread so far. The focus is whether or not Matthews can rush for 1000 yards. I think it is entirely possible. But I think that is close to his ceiling. Others are willing to spend a high pick to see if they catch some rookie gold. He definitely is worth a 3rd rounder because of his situation in San Diego. Even then, I personally will pass, as I don't like the upside. I might sound pessimistic on him overall, but I think, in part, it's a natural reaction to hearing people talk about in the first round.Catbird is the voice of reason here.

Yes, well said. Probably partially my fault for introducing the ADP of RB11 argument. I love Mathews for dynasty and think he will succeed, but for redraft I think there is too little reward for too much risk at his ADP. Yes, it's true that any 1st rounder could bust and 50% of top 10 RB's usually don't repeat, but I'd much rather take a chance on a guy who's played an nfl down and I can evaluate based on that than a rookie who hasn't taken an nfl snap yet.

 

[H.K.]

Really? I have to ask why? The Chargers GM has proudly wagered his future on his curious policy of rewarding below avg talented RB's and watching real talent escape for nothing. The lines on both side have regressed. What about the current Chargers brass impresses you? Is it, "In AJ we trust?"

They have won their division four out of the past five years. That qualifies them as a competent organization in my book. Maybe we have different definitions.

"Competent" compared to this:AFC West from 2007 through 2009:

Chiefs are 10-38 (best year - 4 wins)

Raiders are 14-34 (best year - 5 wins)

Broncos are 23-25 (best year - 8 wins)

Total combined record 47 - 97.

The past three seasons, no other team in the Chargers' division has been above .500 and none have made the playoffs.

The Raiders have been a mess with Davis, Russell etc., same for the Chiefs with Edwards (Thigpen & Huard, seriously?), and the Broncos are now in the mix with McDaniels. The reality is the three other teams in that division have completely imploded. When you remove those teams from the equation and look at Smith's personnel moves and earlier successive playoff exits each year, AJ Smith is looking more and more like the beneficiary of circumstance than he does a good GM.

 

[rizzler]

can we just drop the bickering as say this:

will be reach 1000yds? most likely... not overly difficult getting a reported 250 carries.

will his ever dropping ADP correlate with his production? not bloody likely, but not impossible.

by early sept, I bet his overall ADP is anywhere from 10-14. outlandish!

 

[Carolina Hustler]

just posted about Mathews in the fools gold thread.i'll regurgitate............basically he's coming into a good situation, yes, but a mid 1st round pick? thats too rich for my blood. i'll let someone else gamble with him.

I've never even seen him go in the first round outside of a rookie draft. much less "mid first round"The guy has great tools. Strongest of all, he has great balance and vision of the field. He has nice moves, not the best ever but certainly strong in that category. Good speed, breaks tackles, can run inside or outside. I hear some knock him as a pass catcher, I don't see it.So, from my perspective, the only factor to use against him would be the current o-line. The offensive team as a whole is good and I think that allows Matthews opportunities. Both in having more touches available, and in keeping opposing teams from stacking the line.Last year was one of the worst rushing years for the chargers in recent history. And there was a lot of things you could point your finger at. To think a personnel change on the offensive line is the only possible way that the Chargers rushing offense will improve would be like saying it would be the only way for a passing game to improve.

 

[Insein]

I agree with the OP. Its not about whether Matthews will be good or not. Its about whether Matthews is worth a RB1 pick in your draft. I don't see how anyone can justify the immense risk you would be taking by making Matthews your RB1. If he were going in the 3rd or 4th round, as past rookie "stud" RB prospects have been (ADP, McFadden, etc), then Matthews would be a great pick. First or 2nd round is taking too much risk for little reward when their are comparable players at the pick he's going who have done it already in the NFL.

 

[eoMMan]

I read something about him getting hurt a lot in college? True?

 

[omahabrad]

The reason their rushing average has sucked since 2008 is because LT has been washed up for two years. Hence why the Chargers finally cut bait and paid a king's ransom to move up and get Mathews. The fact that one crappy player struggled in a particular situation doesn't in any way prove that the situation itself is toxic. Citing San Diego's recent struggles in the ground game is not a compelling argument for why Mathews will struggle because the players who failed to produce were incapable of succeeding. It's sort of like saying Randy Moss couldn't succeed in New England because David Givens didn't. It's pretty easy to see the problem with this statement.

To blame all the problems of a rushing game on one player, is pretty naive. Not too many RB's in the league could have made San Diego's running game look good. Norv spent too much time talking up the running game instead of working on it.

 

[David Yudkin]

For those considering taking Matthews in the first or early second . . .

I have seen him getting drafted in the RB 7-13 range and by the time the season rolls around I would guess his ADP will be around RB 10.

In the past 10 seasons, the RB10 each year has averaged: 287-1163-8 with 46-353-2 for a total of 208 fantasy points.

Basically, 333 touches, 1516 yfs, 10 total TD.

In those 10 years, there have been 8 rookie RB to hit the 208 points scored mark (0 PPR):

Clinton Portis 2002 289

Mike Anderson 2000 256

Matt Forte 2008 244

Adrian Peterson 2007 239

Maurice Jones-Drew 2006 228

Steve Slaton 2008 226

LaDainian Tomlinson 2001 220

Chris Johnson 2008 209

I'm not saying Matthews can't score 208 points this year. I'm not saying he won't score 208 points this year. But I'm not sure I would put a lot of money that he will score 208 points this year. Bottom line, for me, for him to ear back his draft spot, there very likely won't be much upside past that, so as I see it, drafting Matthews you are at beast hoping to break even.

 

[eoMMan]

For those considering taking Matthews in the first or early second . . .I have seen him getting drafted in the RB 7-13 range and by the time the season rolls around I would guess his ADP will be around RB 10.In the past 10 seasons, the RB10 each year has averaged: 287-1163-8 with 46-353-2 for a total of 208 fantasy points.Basically, 333 touches, 1516 yfs, 10 total TD.In those 10 years, there have been 8 rookie RB to hit the 208 points scored mark (0 PPR):Clinton Portis 2002 289 Mike Anderson 2000 256 Matt Forte 2008 244 Adrian Peterson 2007 239 Maurice Jones-Drew 2006 228 Steve Slaton 2008 226LaDainian Tomlinson 2001 220Chris Johnson 2008 209I'm not saying Matthews can't score 208 points this year. I'm not saying he won't score 208 points this year. But I'm not sure I would put a lot of money that he will score 208 points this year. Bottom line, for me, for him to ear back his draft spot, there very likely won't be much upside past that, so as I see it, drafting Matthews you are at beast hoping to break even.

Not a bad analysis, but I'd like to see ALL of the RB's that hit 208 pts over those 10 seasons. The fact that he is a rookie doesn't mean a ton to me.

 

[Gr00vus]

In those 10 years, there have been 8 rookie RB to hit the 208 points scored mark (0 PPR):...Bottom line, for me, for him to ear back his draft spot, there very likely won't be much upside past that, so as I see it, drafting Matthews you are at beast hoping to break even.

So based on that sample there's a 0.8 probability of a rookie hitting the 208 points scored mark per year, making it more likely that one will this year than not. So which rookie this year do you think is most likely to be that guy?Once you get past the top 4 (give or take) guys in the draft this year, breaking even sounds pretty good to me. I think that's the reason Matthews is ranked so high - there's a ton of uncertainty outside the known high end. As mentioned above, if you're doing your projections anything like realistically for the Chargers, the numbers you come up with for their RB1 mandate a pretty high pick. It happens the name for that guy is Matthews and so he goes in that slot.You see a lot of people saying "No way I'd take so and so in the 1st round." Problem is, unless you're in a 5 team league, eventually you're going to have to take somebody in the 1st round - so who is it going to be? Chargers RB1 has been a pretty reliably productive guy - even when the actual player was completely run down. You plug a decently talented youngster (which is a marked improvement over the guy who had the job the last 2 years) into that spot and it's not crazy to see why people would consider taking what seems like guaranteed money there instead of rolling the dice on something like whether losing Boldin and Warner will make Fitz's numbers take a huge hit.Saying a guy doesn't belong at ADP X can sound good out of context - but show me the guys you're sure belong ahead of him if you want to make me buy into your argument.

 

[doowain]

Disagree completely. He has much better big play capabilities than Moreno and the Chargers are a much better team than the Broncos. He also gets to play the Chiefs, Raiders, and Broncos 6 times. I see him easily surpassing 1000 yards rushing and possibly exceeding 1200-1300 yards. He's easily my pick for ROY in non-PPR formats.

People still play non-PPR? I wonder if those same people have 8 track players installed in their new cars.

 

[bmj87]

I read something about him getting hurt a lot in college? True?

2007: Missed bowl game w/ torn muscle near his collarbone. 2008: Missed 5 games and parts of 3 others with knee/foot injury2009: Missed 1.5 games with concussion

 

[David Yudkin]

In those 10 years, there have been 8 rookie RB to hit the 208 points scored mark (0 PPR):...Bottom line, for me, for him to ear back his draft spot, there very likely won't be much upside past that, so as I see it, drafting Matthews you are at beast hoping to break even.

So based on that sample there's a 0.8 probability of a rookie hitting the 208 points scored mark per year, making it more likely that one will this year than not. So which rookie this year do you think is most likely to be that guy?Once you get past the top 4 (give or take) guys in the draft this year, breaking even sounds pretty good to me. I think that's the reason Matthews is ranked so high - there's a ton of uncertainty outside the known high end. As mentioned above, if you're doing your projections anything like realistically for the Chargers, the numbers you come up with for their RB1 mandate a pretty high pick. It happens the name for that guy is Matthews and so he goes in that slot.You see a lot of people saying "No way I'd take so and so in the 1st round." Problem is, unless you're in a 5 team league, eventually you're going to have to take somebody in the 1st round - so who is it going to be? Chargers RB1 has been a pretty reliably productive guy - even when the actual player was completely run down. You plug a decently talented youngster (which is a marked improvement over the guy who had the job the last 2 years) into that spot and it's not crazy to see why people would consider taking what seems like guaranteed money there instead of rolling the dice on something like whether losing Boldin and Warner will make Fitz's numbers take a huge hit.Saying a guy doesn't belong at ADP X can sound good out of context - but show me the guys you're sure belong ahead of him if you want to make me buy into your argument.

IMO, I would not slot a team with the worst ypc in the league as a team that would produce a fantasy first round pick. To make a comparison, this would be similar to making Beanie Wells a first round pick last year. ARI had terrible rushing numbers and Wells only had to beat out Hightower. Both had big passing attacks. Both were going to get the run game going. Yet Wells ended the season ranked 31st.So to your point, I would not slot the SD running game as one that would produce a Top 10 fantasy RB. Add in the risk of an unproven rookie and I would choose to pass on taking him at the spot he is getting drafted.Again, this is not to say that Matthews can't or won't do well this year, but as an investment for 2010, I would look to put my fantasy dollars elsewhere and let someone else incur the risk. In this scenario, I would say that the best case for Matthews at his current ADP is getting a dollar for a one dollar investment with a decent chance of having to eat some of my investment costs.In fantasy terms, Matthews could score 150-175 fantasy points this year, but if the cost was a projected 208 fantasy points, to me that's not a great pick. If I had to guess, I would suggest Matthews would be closer to 175 points scored this year than say 225 points.

 

[JohnnyU]

Disagree completely. He has much better big play capabilities than Moreno and the Chargers are a much better team than the Broncos. He also gets to play the Chiefs, Raiders, and Broncos 6 times. I see him easily surpassing 1000 yards rushing and possibly exceeding 1200-1300 yards. He's easily my pick for ROY in non-PPR formats.

People still play non-PPR? I wonder if those same people have 8 track players installed in their new cars.

No, those are reserved for TD only leagues.

 

[Ray_T]

I think Ryan Matthews is a good player, but hes going into an offense that is geared toward throwing the ball. I figure it will take at least a year or two until he finds his Niche in that offense. As such, I am calling for a Mediocre rookie season where he runs for 8-900 yards and catches maybe a dozon passes for another 80-100 yards.

It will take him a few games to get on track and once he does, they will still pull him on third & medium and use sproles as the scat back in those situations.

I could be wrong and I hope I am... but I think the best advice for Matthews is to wait a year.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

In those 10 years, there have been 8 rookie RB to hit the 208 points scored mark (0 PPR):...Bottom line, for me, for him to ear back his draft spot, there very likely won't be much upside past that, so as I see it, drafting Matthews you are at beast hoping to break even.

So based on that sample there's a 0.8 probability of a rookie hitting the 208 points scored mark per year, making it more likely that one will this year than not. So which rookie this year do you think is most likely to be that guy?Once you get past the top 4 (give or take) guys in the draft this year, breaking even sounds pretty good to me. I think that's the reason Matthews is ranked so high - there's a ton of uncertainty outside the known high end. As mentioned above, if you're doing your projections anything like realistically for the Chargers, the numbers you come up with for their RB1 mandate a pretty high pick. It happens the name for that guy is Matthews and so he goes in that slot.You see a lot of people saying "No way I'd take so and so in the 1st round." Problem is, unless you're in a 5 team league, eventually you're going to have to take somebody in the 1st round - so who is it going to be? Chargers RB1 has been a pretty reliably productive guy - even when the actual player was completely run down. You plug a decently talented youngster (which is a marked improvement over the guy who had the job the last 2 years) into that spot and it's not crazy to see why people would consider taking what seems like guaranteed money there instead of rolling the dice on something like whether losing Boldin and Warner will make Fitz's numbers take a huge hit.Saying a guy doesn't belong at ADP X can sound good out of context - but show me the guys you're sure belong ahead of him if you want to make me buy into your argument.

IMO, I would not slot a team with the worst ypc in the league as a team that would produce a fantasy first round pick. To make a comparison, this would be similar to making Beanie Wells a first round pick last year. ARI had terrible rushing numbers and Wells only had to beat out Hightower. Both had big passing attacks. Both were going to get the run game going. Yet Wells ended the season ranked 31st.So to your point, I would not slot the SD running game as one that would produce a Top 10 fantasy RB. Add in the risk of an unproven rookie and I would choose to pass on taking him at the spot he is getting drafted.Again, this is not to say that Matthews can't or won't do well this year, but as an investment for 2010, I would look to put my fantasy dollars elsewhere and let someone else incur the risk. In this scenario, I would say that the best case for Matthews at his current ADP is getting a dollar for a one dollar investment with a decent chance of having to eat some of my investment costs.In fantasy terms, Matthews could score 150-175 fantasy points this year, but if the cost was a projected 208 fantasy points, to me that's not a great pick. If I had to guess, I would suggest Matthews would be closer to 175 points scored this year than say 225 points.

While that is a good point David, I believe Tim Hightower's 143 carries for 598 yards 8 and 61 for 424.Sproles career high's in 4 years in the NFL are 93 carries and 45 receptions....and both of those were last year....with a very ordinary LT.So while Beanie and Mathews may be comparable.....Hightower to Sproles is not.

 

[David Yudkin]

In those 10 years, there have been 8 rookie RB to hit the 208 points scored mark (0 PPR):...Bottom line, for me, for him to ear back his draft spot, there very likely won't be much upside past that, so as I see it, drafting Matthews you are at beast hoping to break even.

So based on that sample there's a 0.8 probability of a rookie hitting the 208 points scored mark per year, making it more likely that one will this year than not. So which rookie this year do you think is most likely to be that guy?Once you get past the top 4 (give or take) guys in the draft this year, breaking even sounds pretty good to me. I think that's the reason Matthews is ranked so high - there's a ton of uncertainty outside the known high end. As mentioned above, if you're doing your projections anything like realistically for the Chargers, the numbers you come up with for their RB1 mandate a pretty high pick. It happens the name for that guy is Matthews and so he goes in that slot.You see a lot of people saying "No way I'd take so and so in the 1st round." Problem is, unless you're in a 5 team league, eventually you're going to have to take somebody in the 1st round - so who is it going to be? Chargers RB1 has been a pretty reliably productive guy - even when the actual player was completely run down. You plug a decently talented youngster (which is a marked improvement over the guy who had the job the last 2 years) into that spot and it's not crazy to see why people would consider taking what seems like guaranteed money there instead of rolling the dice on something like whether losing Boldin and Warner will make Fitz's numbers take a huge hit.Saying a guy doesn't belong at ADP X can sound good out of context - but show me the guys you're sure belong ahead of him if you want to make me buy into your argument.

IMO, I would not slot a team with the worst ypc in the league as a team that would produce a fantasy first round pick. To make a comparison, this would be similar to making Beanie Wells a first round pick last year. ARI had terrible rushing numbers and Wells only had to beat out Hightower. Both had big passing attacks. Both were going to get the run game going. Yet Wells ended the season ranked 31st.So to your point, I would not slot the SD running game as one that would produce a Top 10 fantasy RB. Add in the risk of an unproven rookie and I would choose to pass on taking him at the spot he is getting drafted.Again, this is not to say that Matthews can't or won't do well this year, but as an investment for 2010, I would look to put my fantasy dollars elsewhere and let someone else incur the risk. In this scenario, I would say that the best case for Matthews at his current ADP is getting a dollar for a one dollar investment with a decent chance of having to eat some of my investment costs.In fantasy terms, Matthews could score 150-175 fantasy points this year, but if the cost was a projected 208 fantasy points, to me that's not a great pick. If I had to guess, I would suggest Matthews would be closer to 175 points scored this year than say 225 points.

While that is a good point David, I believe Tim Hightower's 143 carries for 598 yards 8 and 61 for 424.Sproles career high's in 4 years in the NFL are 93 carries and 45 receptions....and both of those were last year....with a very ordinary LT.So while Beanie and Mathews may be comparable.....Hightower to Sproles is not.

Hightower had a 2.8 ypc while Sproles has had a high of 5.7 for a ypc. IMO, Hightower would be less likely to get the ball a ton compared to Sproles, and I'm pretty sure Sproles gets paid a lot more than Hightower. It certainly was not an apples to apples comparison, but it was in the realm of being somewhat similar.

 

[benson_will_lead_the_way]

In those 10 years, there have been 8 rookie RB to hit the 208 points scored mark (0 PPR):...Bottom line, for me, for him to ear back his draft spot, there very likely won't be much upside past that, so as I see it, drafting Matthews you are at beast hoping to break even.

So based on that sample there's a 0.8 probability of a rookie hitting the 208 points scored mark per year, making it more likely that one will this year than not. So which rookie this year do you think is most likely to be that guy?Once you get past the top 4 (give or take) guys in the draft this year, breaking even sounds pretty good to me. I think that's the reason Matthews is ranked so high - there's a ton of uncertainty outside the known high end. As mentioned above, if you're doing your projections anything like realistically for the Chargers, the numbers you come up with for their RB1 mandate a pretty high pick. It happens the name for that guy is Matthews and so he goes in that slot.You see a lot of people saying "No way I'd take so and so in the 1st round." Problem is, unless you're in a 5 team league, eventually you're going to have to take somebody in the 1st round - so who is it going to be? Chargers RB1 has been a pretty reliably productive guy - even when the actual player was completely run down. You plug a decently talented youngster (which is a marked improvement over the guy who had the job the last 2 years) into that spot and it's not crazy to see why people would consider taking what seems like guaranteed money there instead of rolling the dice on something like whether losing Boldin and Warner will make Fitz's numbers take a huge hit.Saying a guy doesn't belong at ADP X can sound good out of context - but show me the guys you're sure belong ahead of him if you want to make me buy into your argument.

IMO, I would not slot a team with the worst ypc in the league as a team that would produce a fantasy first round pick. To make a comparison, this would be similar to making Beanie Wells a first round pick last year. ARI had terrible rushing numbers and Wells only had to beat out Hightower. Both had big passing attacks. Both were going to get the run game going. Yet Wells ended the season ranked 31st.So to your point, I would not slot the SD running game as one that would produce a Top 10 fantasy RB. Add in the risk of an unproven rookie and I would choose to pass on taking him at the spot he is getting drafted.Again, this is not to say that Matthews can't or won't do well this year, but as an investment for 2010, I would look to put my fantasy dollars elsewhere and let someone else incur the risk. In this scenario, I would say that the best case for Matthews at his current ADP is getting a dollar for a one dollar investment with a decent chance of having to eat some of my investment costs.In fantasy terms, Matthews could score 150-175 fantasy points this year, but if the cost was a projected 208 fantasy points, to me that's not a great pick. If I had to guess, I would suggest Matthews would be closer to 175 points scored this year than say 225 points.

While that is a good point David, I believe Tim Hightower's 143 carries for 598 yards 8 and 61 for 424.Sproles career high's in 4 years in the NFL are 93 carries and 45 receptions....and both of those were last year....with a very ordinary LT.So while Beanie and Mathews may be comparable.....Hightower to Sproles is not.

Hightower had a 2.8 ypc while Sproles has had a high of 5.7 for a ypc. IMO, Hightower would be less likely to get the ball a ton compared to Sproles, and I'm pretty sure Sproles gets paid a lot more than Hightower. It certainly was not an apples to apples comparison, but it was in the realm of being somewhat similar.

In 2009, Hightower 4.2, Sproles 3.7. GL...Hightower would get work....but sproles wont. Sproles 5.4 ypc high in his 4 year career was on 61 carries. Hightowers 2.8 ypc his rookie year was on 143 carries.I just think Hightower was more of a threat last year to get carries from Wells...than Sproles would be from Mathews...by a large margin.

 

[David Yudkin]

Since 2006, here's a breakdown of the SD backfield situation . . .

RB touches, RB fantasy points, non-LT touches, % of non-LT touches

2006 537, 525, 133, 24.8% (0.978 FP/touch)

2007 523, 392, 148, 28.3% (0.750)

2008 499, 388, 155, 31.1% (0.778)

2009 482, 367, 239, 49.6% (0.761)

How Matthews does will be directly tied to what percentage of touches he gets.

For example, with RB touches trending downward, for argument's sake, let's say the Chargers have 475 RB touches this year. And let's give Matthews 60% of the workload and use a 0.750 FP/touch scoring rate.

475 * 0.6 * 0.75 = 285 touches and 214 fantasy points

In this scenario, Matthews ADP and his projected fantasy scoring would be just about equal.

I guess we will have to see if the other backs on the roster get a bigger workload than in the past with LT in the fold . . .

 

[Multiple Scores]

In those 10 years, there have been 8 rookie RB to hit the 208 points scored mark (0 PPR):...

Bottom line, for me, for him to ear back his draft spot, there very likely won't be much upside past that, so as I see it, drafting Matthews you are at beast hoping to break even.

So based on that sample there's a 0.8 probability of a rookie hitting the 208 points scored mark per year, making it more likely that one will this year than not. So which rookie this year do you think is most likely to be that guy?Once you get past the top 4 (give or take) guys in the draft this year, breaking even sounds pretty good to me. I think that's the reason Matthews is ranked so high - there's a ton of uncertainty outside the known high end. As mentioned above, if you're doing your projections anything like realistically for the Chargers, the numbers you come up with for their RB1 mandate a pretty high pick. It happens the name for that guy is Matthews and so he goes in that slot.

You see a lot of people saying "No way I'd take so and so in the 1st round." Problem is, unless you're in a 5 team league, eventually you're going to have to take somebody in the 1st round - so who is it going to be? Chargers RB1 has been a pretty reliably productive guy - even when the actual player was completely run down. You plug a decently talented youngster (which is a marked improvement over the guy who had the job the last 2 years) into that spot and it's not crazy to see why people would consider taking what seems like guaranteed money there instead of rolling the dice on something like whether losing Boldin and Warner will make Fitz's numbers take a huge hit.

Saying a guy doesn't belong at ADP X can sound good out of context - but show me the guys you're sure belong ahead of him if you want to make me buy into your argument.

IMO, I would not slot a team with the worst ypc in the league as a team that would produce a fantasy first round pick. To make a comparison, this would be similar to making Beanie Wells a first round pick last year. ARI had terrible rushing numbers and Wells only had to beat out Hightower. Both had big passing attacks. Both were going to get the run game going. Yet Wells ended the season ranked 31st.So to your point, I would not slot the SD running game as one that would produce a Top 10 fantasy RB. Add in the risk of an unproven rookie and I would choose to pass on taking him at the spot he is getting drafted.

Again, this is not to say that Matthews can't or won't do well this year, but as an investment for 2010, I would look to put my fantasy dollars elsewhere and let someone else incur the risk. In this scenario, I would say that the best case for Matthews at his current ADP is getting a dollar for a one dollar investment with a decent chance of having to eat some of my investment costs.

In fantasy terms, Matthews could score 150-175 fantasy points this year, but if the cost was a projected 208 fantasy points, to me that's not a great pick. If I had to guess, I would suggest Matthews would be closer to 175 points scored this year than say 225 points.

While that is a good point David, I believe Tim Hightower's 143 carries for 598 yards 8 and 61 for 424.Sproles career high's in 4 years in the NFL are 93 carries and 45 receptions....and both of those were last year....with a very ordinary LT.

So while Beanie and Mathews may be comparable.....Hightower to Sproles is not.

Hightower had a 2.8 ypc while Sproles has had a high of 5.7 for a ypc. IMO, Hightower would be less likely to get the ball a ton compared to Sproles, and I'm pretty sure Sproles gets paid a lot more than Hightower. It certainly was not an apples to apples comparison, but it was in the realm of being somewhat similar.

You say it's "IMO" but it doesn't cut the mustard when fact checking. I think Hightower sucks, that is IMO. If you read your quote there is no "IMO", the FACTS are that Hightower gets more carries, period, it's not an opinion, it's a fact and it's a fact coming from someone who thinks Sproles is much better. Perhaps what you're really saying is that now the Chargers downgraded at RB from LT to Mathews and now Sproles gets an increased role, if that's what your saying then I am speechless.

 

[David Yudkin]

You say it's "IMO" but it doesn't cut the mustard when fact checking. I think Hightower sucks, that is IMO. If you read your quote there is no "IMO", the FACTS are that Hightower gets more carries, period, it's not an opinion, it's a fact and it's a fact coming from someone who thinks Sproles is much better. Perhaps what you're really saying is that now the Chargers downgraded at RB from LT to Mathews and now Sproles gets an increased role, if that's what your saying then I am speechless.

As far as Sproles goes, I don't think his role will change much, but I don't think 100-110 carries is out of the question. That's basically 1 carry more per game.