As far as the last part goes, I don't have enough data to know if Mathews were to be more efficient than he would score many more TDs than LT did. For example, let's say the Chargers on several occasions gave Tomlinson the ball three times in a row say at the two yard line and he finally pounded it into the endzone. Now let's say Mathews was able to get in in one try or sometimes two. Both guys would have gotten TDs, it took Mathews fewer attempts, but that wouldn't mean the Chargers had more trips to the goal line.We also don't know if the Chargers opted to run the ball more frequently deep in enemy territory because they had LT. I'm not saying they won't give Mathews the ball at the goal line or that he can't get in the endzone, but maybe they will change their play calling more and call a few more passing plays.Long story short, we don't know how the loss of LT and the addition of Mathews will impact the Chargers. The assumption is that they do everything the same and substitute Tomlinson for Mathews. But they could very well augment what they do and their offensive plan anywhere from a little to a lot and all points in between. I agree that it's unlikely that suddently the Chargers would scrap red zone rushing attempts, but I could see them throwing for more TDs to Gates or receivers (not a ton more but some more).My overall take on Mathews was not so much that he won't do well but more the cost to acquire hime (basicallay a Top 10 to Top 15 overall pick or so in a redraft).
Yudkin, I agree wholeheartedly with the points you have raised.To project Matthews to be a top 15 pick without taking his first NFL snap is crazy. But that is what people will do based on "conservative" projections of some folks. What do we know about Matthews? He was apparently a small school stud with injury history, who runs in an upright style. The game tape and measurables are good enough for some to think he will be a plug and play guy, with double digit TD's a baseline. The 2010 Chargers aren't the 2009 Chargers. So much could, and I believe will change. The defense has regressed, so P. Rivers will need to use his elite talent to keep his team in games, which means more passing. The red zone philosophy could also change as you suggested. LT2 was legendary for his "nose for the goal". What if after a few failed goalline conversions, Norv has seen enough and tries to force it into Gates at the goalline as a reaction to Matthews not getting the TD's? What if Matthews turns out to be a good between the 20's runner, but needs to be subbed out in the RZ? What if he fumbles the ball at an inopportune time or too much in general? Will he be relegated to complimentary back while they look for a back that can get it done?Again, there are too many variables, too many unknowns to spend a top pick on a rookie back with arguably the worst OL. His current ADP is based on the past success of the Chargers and I feel is irrelevant to his draft status. Certainly later on begiining in the 3rd, he has some value. I said the same for Moreno last year, who had a decent year for a rookie with expected ups and downs. Matthews will have the same learning curve, and you have to consider if you want to tough it out with him as your RB1, while he makes his way. In redraft, who of us has the patience?
)
one game he left early due to injury and he sat out another due to injuryif you hold to the tenant that 'you can't predict injuries', his 2 full games he averaged 65 yards/game65 yards/game * 12 remaining games + 156 current yards = 936 yards
