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Safest First Round Pick? (1 Viewer)

B

bigmiiiiike

Footballguy
OK, so LT and SJax are probably the clear cut safest first rounders, but what about after them?

There seems to be a wide variety of opinion out there (at least arguments of "will they see enough TDs", "will they avoid injury", etc) on Frank Gore, Alexander, Westbrook, Maroney, and Addai.

I'd say, without a doubt, the two safest first rounders after LT and SJax are Willie Parker and Rudi Johnson.

Parker is a guy I'm targeting with any middle pick (over Gore, Alexander, Westbrook, and Addai) because his upside seems to be 1600 and 15, and his floor seems to be 1300 and 11. I'm ready to pencil in another 1500 and 12, plus some receiving, for FWP and take him to the fantasy bank!

Rudi is an obvious choice, but his ceiling is much lower than FWP.

 
I agree with you. I like Parker alot this year and I'm hoping I am in a position to take him. I also think Alexander is safe this year. I think last year was a fluke and he will be back to his old 15+ TD's this year.

 
Peyton Manning. I'm not saying I'd necessarily draft him in the first round but he's a pretty safe bet to be at least really good. Though the left tackle retiring does worry me a bit.

Despite the way overblown injury history I think that Frank Gore is a pretty safe pick. Guys who put up numbers like he did last season just don't go away like that.

 
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bigmiiiiike said:
OK, so LT and SJax are probably the clear cut safest first rounders, but what about after them?There seems to be a wide variety of opinion out there (at least arguments of "will they see enough TDs", "will they avoid injury", etc) on Frank Gore, Alexander, Westbrook, Maroney, and Addai. I'd say, without a doubt, the two safest first rounders after LT and SJax are Willie Parker and Rudi Johnson. Parker is a guy I'm targeting with any middle pick (over Gore, Alexander, Westbrook, and Addai) because his upside seems to be 1600 and 15, and his floor seems to be 1300 and 11. I'm ready to pencil in another 1500 and 12, plus some receiving, for FWP and take him to the fantasy bank! Rudi is an obvious choice, but his ceiling is much lower than FWP.
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In non-ppr I assume?
 
Why am I not sold on Rudi this year? I can't shake the feeling I have about him. It's irrational and unsubstantiated but it's there in my gut.

 
Most RB's have ?'s, so for me Peyton is the epitome of safe. 35-40 TDs, tons of yards...just depends on whether or not you're up for taking a QB in the mid/late 1st round. Agree on FWP being the next safest, but interesting to see what happens to him post-Ken Whisenhunt's departure. Westbrook seems to be past his major injury issues, I love that guy. I'd say Addai is about as much as a lock as anyone -- no competition for carries, great offense, no big injury history, young, etc.

 
Given the possibe shake-up on o-line, a new offensive system, and a new defensive system. I wouldn't exactly call Fast Wille P a safe pick.

 
bigmiiiiike said:
Parker is a guy I'm targeting with any middle pick (over Gore, Alexander, Westbrook, and Addai) because his upside seems to be 1600 and 15, and his floor seems to be 1300 and 11. I'm ready to pencil in another 1500 and 12, plus some receiving, for FWP and take him to the fantasy bank!
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On the money.He's answered all questions about his durability. He's young. 3 O-lineman are playing for a contract. Excellent new o-line coach. QB play should be improved. Steelers drafted defense, field position, and run blockers (7th round WR thrown in).Concerns about Arians offense are overblown. He knows FWP is the engine that drives this offense (#9 ranked last season despite Ben's medical issues and Cowher's complacency). He is committed to utilizing him more in the passing game.Excellent schedule until playoff time. That's a consideration both +/-.It's tough to predict TD's, so replicating 16 from a year ago will be tough, but the potential is there (he lost 3 to GL fumbles).LT/S JAx/ FWP on my board.
 
I am not sold on FWP's ability to be the goal line back yet....yeah he did it last year but I would like to see it one more year. I do not think he even gets 10 TDs this season. Time will tell....

 
I have the 5th pick in a PPR this season and assume LT/SJac/LJ/Gore will be gone

I've got FWP/Westbrook penciled in right now ... we'll see how things shake out between now and draft day which is a week from Monday ....

I think with the departure of Glenn in Indy there will be more pressure on Addai to concentrate on blocking assignments ... he'll still be a force but it has to knock him down into the 7-8 range in my thinking

:bag:

 
Sweetness_34 said:
I am not sold on FWP's ability to be the goal line back yet....yeah he did it last year but I would like to see it one more year. I do not think he even gets 10 TDs this season. Time will tell....
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I agree with this statement 150%. The Steelers have resigned Davenport , Veronon Haynes, and signed free agent Kevan Barlow for a reason. If I'm correct FWP lead the league for RB's in fumbles last season with seven. And as someone post 3 on the goal line. Coach Tomlin has already stated that he would like have a RB help FWP. I think we will see Davenport or Barlow assume the role as the 3rd down back and steal some goal line carries from FWP. Remember Duce and the Bus a few years back. I don't see a RBBC, just a decrease in work load.
 
Scott G said:
I agree with this statement 150%. The Steelers have resigned Davenport , Veronon Haynes, and signed free agent Kevan Barlow for a reason. If I'm correct FWP lead the league for RB's in fumbles last season with seven. And as someone post 3 on the goal line. Coach Tomlin has already stated that he would like have a RB help FWP. I think we will see Davenport or Barlow assume the role as the 3rd down back and steal some goal line carries from FWP. Remember Duce and the Bus a few years back. I don't see a RBBC, just a decrease in work load.
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Thing is, none of the backs you mentioned are GL type backs. Haynes is recovering from a shredded knee, Barlow may not even make it out of camp (completely sucks). Davenport has zero body lean and ankles of glass. I don't think the RB stable has changed dramatically from last season. If anything it looks like they will rely on Willie more if that is possible.Willie was very effective in short yardage situations, but had fumbling issues at the GL. Correctable? We'll see.I'm hoping he sees fewer carries and more receptions with his total touches staying about the same.Still fewer ?? than Westy and Addai. With the LJ holdout and Gore losing Norv. I still think he's a reasonable #3.
 
If your talking about "safe" it has nothing to do with the ceiling and everything to do with the floor. If your drafting him, your probably getting him at 01.06 I just think everyone is setting the floor too high given the situation in Pittsburgh right now. That's just me, but I'd feel a lot safer drafting a guy in the exact same situation that he was in last year. I know where the floor is on a guy like that.

 
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treat88 said:
Scott G said:
I agree with this statement 150%. The Steelers have resigned Davenport , Veronon Haynes, and signed free agent Kevan Barlow for a reason. If I'm correct FWP lead the league for RB's in fumbles last season with seven. And as someone post 3 on the goal line. Coach Tomlin has already stated that he would like have a RB help FWP. I think we will see Davenport or Barlow assume the role as the 3rd down back and steal some goal line carries from FWP. Remember Duce and the Bus a few years back. I don't see a RBBC, just a decrease in work load.
Click to expand...
Thing is, none of the backs you mentioned are GL type backs. Haynes is recovering from a shredded knee, Barlow may not even make it out of camp (completely sucks). Davenport has zero body lean and ankles of glass. I don't think the RB stable has changed dramatically from last season. If anything it looks like they will rely on Willie more if that is possible.Willie was very effective in short yardage situations, but had fumbling issues at the GL. Correctable? We'll see.I'm hoping he sees fewer carries and more receptions with his total touches staying about the same.Still fewer ?? than Westy and Addai. With the LJ holdout and Gore losing Norv. I still think he's a reasonable #3.
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I have to disagree. Yes, Haynes is recovering from a knee injury, But if healthy the Steelers love him as a 3rd down back a role that he has held in the past. IMO Davenport has the size to be a 3rd down/goal line back. He is 6'1 234 pounds. The problem with Davenport is that he doesn't run like a big man. He is more of a finesse back. That is why the Steelers brought in Barlow. Barlow is 6'1 234 pounds. IMO Barlow may do well as a 3rd down/goal line back. After all he did have some success in SF sharing carries with Garrison Hearst. Last year Barlow had 9 goal line carries, 6 for touchdowns. I don't think that is to shabby. FWP is only 5'10 234 pounds. A bit under sized. Often times backs of this size don't receive G/L touches. Brian Westbrook and Warrick Dunn to name a few.I also see the Steelers throwing more in goal line situations. Heath Miller is a huge target, and now they have added 3rd round draft pick Matt Spaeth, and 7th rounder Dallas Baker.
 
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