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Scouting the Scouts!(NFL draft guides comparison/opinion) (1 Viewer)

BoltBacker

Footballguy
Consider this thread as a guide to NFL draft guides. What do you think are best? Please include the price in your review.

One of the one's that I'm most interested in is PFF NFL draft scouting. People think that I hate PFF but that's simply not the case. There is no way I'm going to watch every college football game(if that's even possible) so their opinions of college players mean a lot more to me than their pro coverage. When they rate players on every play do they weigh their ranking based on the level of competition? Be it the team they are playing against or the specific player? Also, as near as I can tell the least expensive option is purchasing PFF Edge to get their draft guide for $40. Is that the case or is there a way to purchase just the draft guide a la carte?

One of my favorite people in the industry is Dane Brugler. What are people's thoughts on his draft guide? Kyle Crabtree is another favorite. I assume we'll get a lot of thumbs up for Matt Waldman as well and he's been a wonderful voice on the subject for years and years. 

This thread isn't really a "rank'em" thread, it's more about comparing the costs and relative strengths and weaknesses of each. There is a great deal of hard work put into all of them, but based on price I might be looking to purchase 3 that I've never tried if they get great reviews here instead of one expensive guide. The last thing this thread is for is bashing someone for any of the content that they are selling. A great deal of time and effort is put into all of them I am sure. If you have bought more than one in the past and have a direct comparison between the analysis in one when compared to another that would especially be appreciated. This last month before the draft is always one of the slowest. Not sure, but the NFL draft weekend may be the single weekend I look forward to more than any other. It blows both Christmas and Thanksgiving out of the water.

 

Bri

Footballguy
Matt Miller and Rob Rang.

When he talks draft, Greg Cosell.

Daniel Jeremiah

If you ever have the chance to hear Cosell or Gil Brandt discuss historical stuff, listen

Brandt is a legend that I don't think always does a good interview because hosts get him talking about the old days and random stuff. When he is doing a sincere Q&A, I'd put him atop this list

 

BigTex

Don't mess with Texas
Over the last 6 years I’ve compared scout/draft pundits etc.. to see how they fared and let’s just say my prescription/fee/dues are only limited to a few that actually have panned out, have been fairly accurate and for different reasons.

Tex

 

Bojang0301

Omar4Heisman
cloppbeast said:
Who were the guys who put Jacob's in their top 10?
Bruglar (usually good), Jeremiah, all the Draft Network honks, Bloom says he’s not removing him from top back status... I’m sure there is a litany of others. 

 

King of the Jungle

Footballguy
My only deal with Waldman is that he falls in love with players
I understand that angle as well, but don't we all have our favorites? I just think it is refreshing reading an opinion that doesn't just go by the standard ranking sheet. Plus he has enlightened me to grab certain guys deep in the draft that have really been major contributors. He isn't a 100% on his takes but nobody is.

 

BoltBacker

Footballguy
What’s been folks impression of The Draft Network guys?  
I think you have to separate out each individual. There are some guys on the TDN that I listen closely to everything they say, other guys feel like they are there more for entertainment than information. Their podcasts are a great listen imo.

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
I like TDN but they pretty much ignore any use of analytics so it’s a big hole imo.

also Kyle Crabbs and Joe Marino have the a worst music takes that makes me distrust everything they say. They both hate the Beatles and only know one song by them: Yellow Submarine. Don’t know any Nirvana- thought Marilyn Manson was in the the group. They genuinely like Limp Bizkit music and make references to it. Soooo that’s pretty awful. 

 
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Milkman

Footballguy
I don't take PFF very seriously. I subscribed one year and wasn't very impressed. I think they had Aaron Rodgers ranked as the 15th best QB in the league. Lol see ya!

 

cloppbeast

Footballguy
Ilov80s said:
I like TDN but they pretty much ignore any use of analytics so it’s a big hole imo.

also Kyle Crabbs and Joe Marino have the a worst music takes that makes me distrust everything they say. They both hate the Beatles and only know one song by them: Yellow Submarine. Don’t know any Nirvana- thought Marilyn Manson was in the the group. They genuinely like Limp Bizkit music and make references to it. Soooo that’s pretty awful. 
To be fair, if yellow submarine was the only Beatles song youve heard, you would think they stuck too. 

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
Ilov80s said:
I like TDN but they pretty much ignore any use of analytics so it’s a big hole imo.

also Kyle Crabbs and Joe Marino have the a worst music takes that makes me distrust everything they say. They both hate the Beatles and only know one song by them: Yellow Submarine. Don’t know any Nirvana- thought Marilyn Manson was in the the group. They genuinely like Limp Bizkit music and make references to it. Soooo that’s pretty awful. 
That is awful.

I knew soneone out there liked that band. Pretty much nullifies the worthyness of the rest of their existence in my view. Or at least question their judgement and a ability to discern good from bad.

 

Milkman

Footballguy
PFF has Montez Sweat as the 47th best prospect in this draft. Like how can they take anybody's money when they put crap out like that. He dominated the SEC. He dominated the senior bowl. He destroyed the combine both with his times and his measurements. Fast and explosive. Huge wingspan. Huge hands. He's closer to the #1 best prospect in this draft than the 47th. 

A big LOL PFF. 

SWEAT IS LITERALLY AS CLOSE TO A CAN'T MISS PROSPECT AS THERE IS. 

 

BigTex

Don't mess with Texas
I understand that angle as well, but don't we all have our favorites? I just think it is refreshing reading an opinion that doesn't just go by the standard ranking sheet. Plus he has enlightened me to grab certain guys deep in the draft that have really been major contributors. He isn't a 100% on his takes but nobody is.
Every league I’m in is about money so I don’t want to follow someone who gives me their opinions when I can form my own. I want stats that have been proven to translate to NFL success as much as I believe in PFF their not the only ones I’m a member of. There’s a few others that provide serious data then there’s one or two that’s just fluff and nothing more than a time vampire.

I don’t need personal options but that’s just me. I play to win, I play for money and I pay sources to help me make the correct decisions and over the last three years have been great. 

I believe this question has different answers because we all don’t have the same objective. So there’s going to be differences of opinion.

Tex

 

BigTex

Don't mess with Texas
I don't take PFF very seriously. I subscribed one year and wasn't very impressed. I think they had Aaron Rodgers ranked as the 15th best QB in the league. Lol see ya!
I do, the thing about PFF is there’s a different angle on things every year. They get input and analysis from real NFL players and scouts who some are very involved in what PFF does. Who else do we know has that type of input??? No one that I currently know. Some things they put out I just read for down time. But there’s data from the that’s 2nd to none and proven to be helpful at least in my experience. 

Tex

 

King of the Jungle

Footballguy
Every league I’m in is about money so I don’t want to follow someone who gives me their opinions when I can form my own. I want stats that have been proven to translate to NFL success as much as I believe in PFF their not the only ones I’m a member of. There’s a few others that provide serious data then there’s one or two that’s just fluff and nothing more than a time vampire.

I don’t need personal options but that’s just me. I play to win, I play for money and I pay sources to help me make the correct decisions and over the last three years have been great. 

I believe this question has different answers because we all don’t have the same objective. So there’s going to be differences of opinion.

Tex
Okay...it is clear you take this more seriously than I do...

I must have given the wrong impression. I don’t use his rankings as my rankings. I also don’t have time to watch countless hours of football. I use his guide for information and combine that with what I see on the field. More so it helps bring attention to prospects that I may not have had a chance to watch and then I try to catch some tape on them. Again the main reason I like it is it is not consensus and brings some sleepers to the forefront of my research.

 

BoltBacker

Footballguy
King of the Jungle said:
I also don’t have time to watch countless hours of football. 
That's where I am as well. It's really not that difficult to watch every down of NFL football every year. But college football? No way I have time(or more importantly interest) in that. While some analysis relies heavily on analytics and other is based on tape I think there is room to appreciate both.

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
Milkman said:
PFF has Montez Sweat as the 47th best prospect in this draft. Like how can they take anybody's money when they put crap out like that. He dominated the SEC. He dominated the senior bowl. He destroyed the combine both with his times and his measurements. Fast and explosive. Huge wingspan. Huge hands. He's closer to the #1 best prospect in this draft than the 47th. 

A big LOL PFF. 

SWEAT IS LITERALLY AS CLOSE TO A CAN'T MISS PROSPECT AS THERE IS. 
I am glad you think that. I feel like there is a good chance Detroit takes him and for whatever reason I just can't get excited about him. 

 

rockaction

Footballguy
That's where I am as well. It's really not that difficult to watch every down of NFL football every year. But college football? No way I have time(or more importantly interest) in that. While some analysis relies heavily on analytics and other is based on tape I think there is room to appreciate both.
I don't even have time to watch every down of NFL football every year, which is why I don't play for serious money. Plus, to watch every down you need Game Pass All 22 for the full story, and I'm not a scout. 

I really agree with the bolded, though, for all sports. Eventually motion trackers and sports science will replace analytics to a degree, but until then, it's a nascent science and only gives you an advantage rather than a definitive conclusion.  

 
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BoltBacker

Footballguy
My only deal with Waldman is that he falls in love with players
It's ok with me to fall in love with players as long as you express WHY you think they are such a good prospect. There have been some where I agreed with his reasoning, and others where I disagreed and avoided the player.

 

Interseptopus

Footballguy
It's ok with me to fall in love with players as long as you express WHY you think they are such a good prospect. There have been some where I agreed with his reasoning, and others where I disagreed and avoided the player.
yes I agree, but I think he gets clouded judgement and sees some players through rose colored glasses; he wishes himself to be right so he ignores negatives

 

BoltBacker

Footballguy
Milkman said:
PFF has Montez Sweat as the 47th best prospect in this draft. Like how can they take anybody's money when they put crap out like that. He dominated the SEC. He dominated the senior bowl. He destroyed the combine both with his times and his measurements. Fast and explosive. Huge wingspan. Huge hands. He's closer to the #1 best prospect in this draft than the 47th. 
They also had Leonte Carroo ranked higher than Sterling Sheppard and Michael Thomas a couple of years ago. Not saying this to bash PFF in any way, just pointing out that the analytics and "watching EVERY play" isn't always the magic bullet  that some people think that it is.

PFF does some good work. But so do some of the tape guys. And so does Daniel Jeremiah who does those things AND knows actual scouts around the league so he hears a concensus from actual people in the league(more so than a Mel Kiper at this point). 

 

travdogg

Footballguy
They also had Leonte Carroo ranked higher than Sterling Sheppard and Michael Thomas a couple of years ago. Not saying this to bash PFF in any way, just pointing out that the analytics and "watching EVERY play" isn't always the magic bullet  that some people think that it is.

PFF does some good work. But so do some of the tape guys. And so does Daniel Jeremiah who does those things AND knows actual scouts around the league so he hears a concensus from actual people in the league(more so than a Mel Kiper at this point). 
They did not have Carroo over Shepard or Thomas. They were high on Carroo(an early 2nd round grade, ahead of Will Fuller and Tyler Boyd) but had both Shepard and Thomas as 1st rounders, both ahead of Laquon Treadwell. 

I like PFF, they are certainly not 100% accurate, nobody is, but I think they are certainly above average. 

This year was my first exposure to his work, but I'm not a Matt Miller fan at all. At least not the comparisons, they seem completely random, and just there for the sake of having comps. As opposed to someone like Lance Zeurlein, who seems to put a lot of thought into comps.

I am glad you think that. I feel like there is a good chance Detroit takes him and for whatever reason I just can't get excited about him. 
I'm also worried about Sweat. I think its his lack of pass rushing moves. Its all straight ahead athleticism. I'm a little worried he'll be Vic Beasley. I certainly don't think he's even close to the same league as Bosa or Allen are. Like him more than Rashan Gary though.

 
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Biabreakable

Footballguy
They did not have Carroo over Shepard or Thomas. They were high on Carroo(an early 2nd round grade, ahead of Will Fuller and Tyler Boyd) but had both Shepard and Thomas as 1st rounders, both ahead of Laquon Treadwell. 

I like PFF, they are certainly not 100% accurate, nobody is, but I think they are certainly above average. 

This year was my first exposure to his work, but I'm not a Matt Miller fan at all. At least not the comparisons, they seem completely random, and just there for the sake of having comps. As opposed to someone like Lance Zeurlein, who seems to put a lot of thought into comps.
I think comparing any player can have its problems. They are all different, and have different careers. A players career can be very much about chance and circumstance as it is about talent.

I think making a comparison is hard, but it is done to provide a quick picture or understanding of a player that has similar play style and ability. I have seen LZ make some real head scratching comparisons too. Maybe not as many as Miller. I think a lot of people find some of what Miller says to be questionable. You are not alone in reacting to him that way.

I'm also worried about Sweat. I think its his lack of pass rushing moves. Its all straight ahead athleticism. I'm a little worried he'll be Vic Beasley. I certainly don't think he's even close to the same league as Bosa or Allen are. Like him more than Rashan Gary though.
I don't see the Beasley comparison as Sweat is a larger player than Beasley is.

He does lack pass rushing moves. He needs to learn how to use his hands. A month or so ago Sweat was being mocked to the Vikings so I was reading about him in this light. The narrative was that Vikings defensive line coach Patterson has done such a good job coaching up defensive linemen over the last decade that he would be able to maximize Sweats potential. 

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
travdogg said:
They did not have Carroo over Shepard or Thomas. They were high on Carroo(an early 2nd round grade, ahead of Will Fuller and Tyler Boyd) but had both Shepard and Thomas as 1st rounders, both ahead of Laquon Treadwell. 

I like PFF, they are certainly not 100% accurate, nobody is, but I think they are certainly above average. 

This year was my first exposure to his work, but I'm not a Matt Miller fan at all. At least not the comparisons, they seem completely random, and just there for the sake of having comps. As opposed to someone like Lance Zeurlein, who seems to put a lot of thought into comps.

I'm also worried about Sweat. I think its his lack of pass rushing moves. Its all straight ahead athleticism. I'm a little worried he'll be Vic Beasley. I certainly don't think he's even close to the same league as Bosa or Allen are. Like him more than Rashan Gary though.
I’m a Michigan homer and I acknowledge Gary is wildly overrated. He’s an all world athlete but he only flashed glimpses of dominant play.

 

travdogg

Footballguy
I’m a Michigan homer and I acknowledge Gary is wildly overrated. He’s an all world athlete but he only flashed glimpses of dominant play.
I'm a Wisconsin native, so I end up seeing a lot of Michigan, and I thought/think both Hurst and Winovich were far superior players to Gary. Maybe you can answer this for me, Winovich, both ability and appearance wise, looks like Clay Matthews of 10 years ago, why don't more people like him?

Biabreakable said:
I think comparing any player can have its problems. They are all different, and have different careers. A players career can be very much about chance and circumstance as it is about talent.

I think making a comparison is hard, but it is done to provide a quick picture or understanding of a player that has similar play style and ability. I have seen LZ make some real head scratching comparisons too. Maybe not as many as Miller. I think a lot of people find some of what Miller says to be questionable. You are not alone in reacting to him that way.

I don't see the Beasley comparison as Sweat is a larger player than Beasley is.

He does lack pass rushing moves. He needs to learn how to use his hands. A month or so ago Sweat was being mocked to the Vikings so I was reading about him in this light. The narrative was that Vikings defensive line coach Patterson has done such a good job coaching up defensive linemen over the last decade that he would be able to maximize Sweats potential. 
Good to know about Miller, I feel like the last week or 2, a lot of Faust's updates have been Miller comps, and they have seemed about 90% awful. 

The Beasley/Sweat comparison was more about that lack of a plan than anything else. Like, they both are great athletes, but if they can't win solely with that, then its over for them. Hopefully for Sweat he can develop some moves, its probably already too late for Beasley. I do agree with PFF that Sweat is a riskier pick, and I don't have him as a top-20 prospect in this draft, I don't know I'd have him in the 40's like they do, but I don't think its a crazy ranking.

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
I'm a Wisconsin native, so I end up seeing a lot of Michigan, and I thought/think both Hurst and Winovich were far superior players to Gary. Maybe you can answer this for me, Winovich, both ability and appearance wise, looks like Clay Matthews of 10 years ago, why don't more people like him?
I think honestly Chase was behind in the process because of Gary and because he’s white. People assumed Gary was the one drawing double teams teams and creating room for Chase. Also most of the pre-combine stuff on Chase was “high motor but lacks athleticism” and then he tested and what do you know, he’s pretty damn athletic. I think he will end up in the first round and teams will like him more than a lot of draft “experts”.

 
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BoltBacker

Footballguy
travdogg said:
They did not have Carroo over Shepard or Thomas. They were high on Carroo(an early 2nd round grade, ahead of Will Fuller and Tyler Boyd) but had both Shepard and Thomas as 1st rounders, both ahead of Laquon Treadwell. 
They didn't? Then who published this?.......

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-2016-wr-prospect-rankings-draft-class-heavy-with-secondary-talent

"

This year’s class of wide receiver draft prospects isn’t as deep in top-end talent as last year’s class, but this group is deeper in players who could be very good secondary receivers on rosters throughout the NFL.

Here are our rankings for the top wide receivers in the 2016 NFL draft:

ROUND 1

1. Corey Coleman, Baylor

Coleman stands out as the top receiver in a class short on top-end talent. Questions about his height were answered when he checked in at 5-11 and produced a 40-and-a-half-inch vertical jump at the scouting combine in Indianapolis. A talented player with the ball in his hands, Coleman forced 13 missed tackles on 74 receptions in 2015, and was the nation’s leader in yards per route run prior to Baylor’s top two quarterbacks going down with injuries. If there is a knock on him, it’s the reliability of his hands — he dropped 10 passes last season.

2. Josh Doctson, TCU

Doctson ran a 4.50 40-yard dash at the combine, and does lack true deep speed, but there’s a lot to like when you look at his film. A big target at 6-2, he had a vertical leap of 41 inches in Indianapolis, showcasing the leaping ability that saw him go up and win the ball time and time again. He dropped just six of the 84 catchable passes thrown his way in 2015, and has shown himself capable of making circus catches in his time at TCU.

3. Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss

Treadwell has seen his star fall slightly after finishing the 2015 season, when many were calling him a top-10 draft pick. On tape he looks to lack the speed-to-gain separation, and he opted not to run the 40 at the scouting combine. While he may struggle getting separation downfield, he’s as good as anyone in this draft class at using his body to shield defenders away from the ball on slants, and he forced 31 missed tackles over the past two seasons — proving he can make things happen after the catch.

4. Leonte Carroo, Rutgers

When breaking down Carroo’s tape, it at times felt like you were watching two completely different players. When fully healthy he was up there with the best receivers in this class, but the drop-off when he was coming back from injury was severe. Despite that, he still managed to force seven missed tackles on 39 receptions in 2015, and had an impressive one-handed grab in his final game of the year against Maryland to add some wow factor.

5. Sterling Shepard, Oklahoma

The tough thing to project with Shepard is whether or not he’ll only be a slot receiver in the NFL. At 5-10 you would think so, and that’s where he saw 69 percent of his snaps in 2015, but we also saw a player who had the ability to track the deep ball very well and go up and win one-on-one battles versus corners when he had to. He was second among all receivers with a 3.17 yards per-route-run average from the slot, and looks to be a good slot receiver at worst, but perhaps with the potential to be much more. Like Tyler Lockett the year before him, Sterling ranked No. 1 in PFF wide receiver grades.

6. Michael Thomas, Ohio State

A 4.57 40-yard dash at the combine confirmed what we thought about Thomas on film — that he lacks the speed to be a downfield burner in the NFL. However, he uses his hands and feet very well to get separation. He might not fly past defensive backs in the NFL, and that might limit him to being a good No. 2 receiver rather than a No. 1. However, he does the little things well and has shown that he can go up and win the ball in the air — something he had to do at times given Ohio State’s quarterback situation.

ROUND 2

7. Michael Thomas, Southern Miss

He played against lesser competition in the MAC, and wasn’t even invited to the scouting combine, but the “other Michael Thomas” had a very impressive 2015 season, highlighted by a big-time showing in the bowl game against Washington when he racked up 190 receiving yards and two touchdowns. He averaged 19.3 yards per reception and forced nine missed tackles on 72 receptions over the course of the year. It’s understandable to question the level of competition, but Thomas was tied with Treadwell in terms of receiving grade, and warrants consideration on Day 2.

8. Daniel Braverman, Western Michigan

Another player who didn’t face top competition, Braverman would have probably been considered a late-round draft pick five years ago. But in a league that utilizes the slot as much as the NFL does now, his ability has some serious value. Nobody in this draft class averaged more yards per route run from the slot than the 3.27 Braverman managed.

9. Rashard Higgins, Colorado State

Higgins was the highest-graded receiver in this draft class back in 2014, racking up close to 1,800 yards and forcing 23 missed tackles on 96 receptions. He dropped to seventh this year, with just 1,062 yards and eight missed tackles forced on 75 receptions. His timed speed of 4.64 seconds in the 40-yard dash didn’t help his case, but Higgins showed good hands in college, with just 11 drops from the 182 catchable passes thrown his way in the past two seasons.

10. Will Fuller, Notre Dame

There are two problems with Fuller, the first being the fact that he dropped 21 of the 159 catchable passes thrown his way between 2014 and 2015. The second is that many see him as a one-trick pony who can only really have success as a speedster on go routes. The thing is, he’s pretty good at that one trick, and his 4.32 40-yard dash time backs up the fact that he is one of the few receivers in this draft class who can burn defensive backs downfield. He led the nation in deep-ball catch rate, pulling in 17-of-29 targets thrown 20 or more yards downfield, including 10 touchdowns.

11. Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh

Boyd is another player who tested fairly average in Indianapolis, with a hardly eye-popping 40 time of 4.58. However, Boyd showed a safe pair of hands for Pittsburgh in 2015, dropping just five of the 99 catchable passes thrown his way. If there’s an issue, it’s that he forced just six missed tackles on 94 receptions in 2015, but he should find a role in the NFL if he can maintain such a low drop rate.

12. Malcolm Mitchell, Georgia

Mitchell had a solid combine, running a 4.45 40-yard dash and adding a 36-inch vertical leap. He had the 16th-highest grade of all the receivers in this draft class, and he forced 13 missed tackles on just 58 receptions in 2015. It was an impressive year for Mitchell after playing less than 300 snaps in 2014 — he dropped just three of the 61 catchable passes thrown his way."

 

travdogg

Footballguy
Ok, one of their writers had Carroo higher than Shepard and Thomas 7 weeks before the draft. 

In the website's final rankings before the draft, the WR's were ranked:

1. Coleman 2.Doctson 3. Shepard 4. Thomas(OSU) 5. Treadwell (Round 2) 6. Carroo

I'd call that a decent ranking. Not great, but decent, too high on Carroo sure, and too low on Will Fuller, but also lower than most on Treadwell, and higher than most on Shepard and Thomas.  

In that same draft, they had Chris Jones as a top-12 pick, when almost nobody else had him as a 1st rounder. Had Artie Burns as a day-3 pick, and had Hackenburg as undraftable. 

 

BoltBacker

Footballguy
Ok, one of their writers had Carroo higher than Shepard and Thomas 7 weeks before the draft. 
Yeah, maybe he was on a podcast talking about the Carroo ranking because that's all I remembered because it stood out. I've never actually been a subscriber to the site so I don't know what the official rank for the site was.

To be fair, like so many receivers and players in general, landing spot is everything and landing in the MIA mess is about as big a hurdle as a receiver could have. 

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
Yeah, maybe he was on a podcast talking about the Carroo ranking because that's all I remembered because it stood out. I've never actually been a subscriber to the site so I don't know what the official rank for the site was.

To be fair, like so many receivers and players in general, landing spot is everything and landing in the MIA mess is about as big a hurdle as a receiver could have. 
That is the great mystery of all this. How would Carroo and Micheal Thomas look now if they landed in opposite spots? 

 

Bronco Billy

Footballguy
That is the great mystery of all this. How would Carroo and Micheal Thomas look now if they landed in opposite spots? 


There was plenty of competition for targets when Thomas arrived in NO.  He wasn’t given anything - he earned it through shear talent.  I tend to believe that Caroo would not have done the same thing.  Talent always wins out.  Thomas would have been fine in MIA.  He would have soaked up a ton of opportunity because he would have been hands down the best WR on their roster and QBs throw those guys the football a lot - and losing teams provide WRs lots of opportunities.

 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
There was plenty of competition for targets when Thomas arrived in NO.  He wasn’t given anything - he earned it through shear talent.  I tend to believe that Caroo would not have done the same thing.  Talent always wins out.  Thomas would have been fine in MIA.  He would have soaked up a ton of opportunity because he would have been hands down the best WR on their roster and QBs throw those guys the football a lot - and losing teams provide WRs lots of opportunities.
You are probably right on this one since there’s such a disparity between them. Maybe a more interesting comparison would be switching Thomas and someone like Shepherd. Though I think you are still right that Thomas just has something special about his mindset that guys like Doctson and Corey Coleman don’t.

 

Bronco Billy

Footballguy
You are probably right on this one since there’s such a disparity between them. Maybe a more interesting comparison would be switching Thomas and someone like Shepherd. Though I think you are still right that Thomas just has something special about his mindset that guys like Doctson and Corey Coleman don’t.


I don’t disagree with your premise, just the application.  Thomas is a hard comparison because he’s so special.  But take two guys who aren’t so dominant and would otherwise be roughly equivalent and situation becomes very meaningful.

 

BigTex

Don't mess with Texas
He's the best prospect I've seen since Aaron Donald and Khalil Mack. 

That knock on Sweat is he needs to get stronger. Lol

https://www.facebook.com/HailStateFB/videos/240133030213284/?sfnsn=cl

Looks plenty strong in that ^^^^^^ vid......
I’ve found four articles on Montez from PFF: 

From Michael in December of 2018: Polite was talked about in the same breath as Josh Allen, Brian Burns and Montez Sweat for the best first step in this class prior to the combine.

We at PFF have said for years that sack numbers can be misleading. Even the most prolific pass-rushers will still only register sacks on less than five percent of their pass-rushes. That’s why even though we have Sweat down for 23 sacks over the last two seasons, we’re worried about his pass-rushing production. He’s only notched 44 pressures this season which ranks 30th among edge defenders and of those 44 pressures, 17 were either unblocked or deemed clean-up pressures. That translates to only a few true pass-rushing wins per game which sounds far less impressive than his sack totals. 

Steve’s Mock Drafting October 2018 going #32 to the Rams: LOS ANGELES RAMS – EDGE MONTEZ SWEAT, MISSISSIPPI STATE. The Rams still lack elite playmakers on the edge, and Sweat has developed nicely, picking up 27 pressures on only 174 rushes this season.

From Michael’s Mock Draft in February of 2019: 16. CAROLINA PANTHERS – MONTEZ SWEAT, EDGE, MISSISSIPPI STATE. Sweat fits the size/length profile the Panthers seem to prefer from their ends. With Julius Peppers hanging it up, it’s a glaring need.

So What’s exactly wrong about what they are saying here?

Tex

 

BigTex

Don't mess with Texas
Ok, one of their writers had Carroo higher than Shepard and Thomas 7 weeks before the draft. 

In the website's final rankings before the draft, the WR's were ranked:

1. Coleman 2.Doctson 3. Shepard 4. Thomas(OSU) 5. Treadwell (Round 2) 6. Carroo

I'd call that a decent ranking. Not great, but decent, too high on Carroo sure, and too low on Will Fuller, but also lower than most on Treadwell, and higher than most on Shepard and Thomas.  

In that same draft, they had Chris Jones as a top-12 pick, when almost nobody else had him as a 1st rounder. Had Artie Burns as a day-3 pick, and had Hackenburg as undraftable. 
Some people will form an opinion off what see but they can’t see the forest.

Tex

 

JohnnyU

Footballguy
They didn't? Then who published this?.......

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-2016-wr-prospect-rankings-draft-class-heavy-with-secondary-talent

"

This year’s class of wide receiver draft prospects isn’t as deep in top-end talent as last year’s class, but this group is deeper in players who could be very good secondary receivers on rosters throughout the NFL.

Here are our rankings for the top wide receivers in the 2016 NFL draft:

ROUND 1

1. Corey Coleman, Baylor

Coleman stands out as the top receiver in a class short on top-end talent. Questions about his height were answered when he checked in at 5-11 and produced a 40-and-a-half-inch vertical jump at the scouting combine in Indianapolis. A talented player with the ball in his hands, Coleman forced 13 missed tackles on 74 receptions in 2015, and was the nation’s leader in yards per route run prior to Baylor’s top two quarterbacks going down with injuries. If there is a knock on him, it’s the reliability of his hands — he dropped 10 passes last season.

2. Josh Doctson, TCU

Doctson ran a 4.50 40-yard dash at the combine, and does lack true deep speed, but there’s a lot to like when you look at his film. A big target at 6-2, he had a vertical leap of 41 inches in Indianapolis, showcasing the leaping ability that saw him go up and win the ball time and time again. He dropped just six of the 84 catchable passes thrown his way in 2015, and has shown himself capable of making circus catches in his time at TCU.

3. Laquon Treadwell, Ole Miss

Treadwell has seen his star fall slightly after finishing the 2015 season, when many were calling him a top-10 draft pick. On tape he looks to lack the speed-to-gain separation, and he opted not to run the 40 at the scouting combine. While he may struggle getting separation downfield, he’s as good as anyone in this draft class at using his body to shield defenders away from the ball on slants, and he forced 31 missed tackles over the past two seasons — proving he can make things happen after the catch.

4. Leonte Carroo, Rutgers

When breaking down Carroo’s tape, it at times felt like you were watching two completely different players. When fully healthy he was up there with the best receivers in this class, but the drop-off when he was coming back from injury was severe. Despite that, he still managed to force seven missed tackles on 39 receptions in 2015, and had an impressive one-handed grab in his final game of the year against Maryland to add some wow factor.

5. Sterling Shepard, Oklahoma

The tough thing to project with Shepard is whether or not he’ll only be a slot receiver in the NFL. At 5-10 you would think so, and that’s where he saw 69 percent of his snaps in 2015, but we also saw a player who had the ability to track the deep ball very well and go up and win one-on-one battles versus corners when he had to. He was second among all receivers with a 3.17 yards per-route-run average from the slot, and looks to be a good slot receiver at worst, but perhaps with the potential to be much more. Like Tyler Lockett the year before him, Sterling ranked No. 1 in PFF wide receiver grades.

6. Michael Thomas, Ohio State

A 4.57 40-yard dash at the combine confirmed what we thought about Thomas on film — that he lacks the speed to be a downfield burner in the NFL. However, he uses his hands and feet very well to get separation. He might not fly past defensive backs in the NFL, and that might limit him to being a good No. 2 receiver rather than a No. 1. However, he does the little things well and has shown that he can go up and win the ball in the air — something he had to do at times given Ohio State’s quarterback situation.

ROUND 2

7. Michael Thomas, Southern Miss

He played against lesser competition in the MAC, and wasn’t even invited to the scouting combine, but the “other Michael Thomas” had a very impressive 2015 season, highlighted by a big-time showing in the bowl game against Washington when he racked up 190 receiving yards and two touchdowns. He averaged 19.3 yards per reception and forced nine missed tackles on 72 receptions over the course of the year. It’s understandable to question the level of competition, but Thomas was tied with Treadwell in terms of receiving grade, and warrants consideration on Day 2.

8. Daniel Braverman, Western Michigan

Another player who didn’t face top competition, Braverman would have probably been considered a late-round draft pick five years ago. But in a league that utilizes the slot as much as the NFL does now, his ability has some serious value. Nobody in this draft class averaged more yards per route run from the slot than the 3.27 Braverman managed.

9. Rashard Higgins, Colorado State

Higgins was the highest-graded receiver in this draft class back in 2014, racking up close to 1,800 yards and forcing 23 missed tackles on 96 receptions. He dropped to seventh this year, with just 1,062 yards and eight missed tackles forced on 75 receptions. His timed speed of 4.64 seconds in the 40-yard dash didn’t help his case, but Higgins showed good hands in college, with just 11 drops from the 182 catchable passes thrown his way in the past two seasons.

10. Will Fuller, Notre Dame

There are two problems with Fuller, the first being the fact that he dropped 21 of the 159 catchable passes thrown his way between 2014 and 2015. The second is that many see him as a one-trick pony who can only really have success as a speedster on go routes. The thing is, he’s pretty good at that one trick, and his 4.32 40-yard dash time backs up the fact that he is one of the few receivers in this draft class who can burn defensive backs downfield. He led the nation in deep-ball catch rate, pulling in 17-of-29 targets thrown 20 or more yards downfield, including 10 touchdowns.

11. Tyler Boyd, Pittsburgh

Boyd is another player who tested fairly average in Indianapolis, with a hardly eye-popping 40 time of 4.58. However, Boyd showed a safe pair of hands for Pittsburgh in 2015, dropping just five of the 99 catchable passes thrown his way. If there’s an issue, it’s that he forced just six missed tackles on 94 receptions in 2015, but he should find a role in the NFL if he can maintain such a low drop rate.

12. Malcolm Mitchell, Georgia

Mitchell had a solid combine, running a 4.45 40-yard dash and adding a 36-inch vertical leap. He had the 16th-highest grade of all the receivers in this draft class, and he forced 13 missed tackles on just 58 receptions in 2015. It was an impressive year for Mitchell after playing less than 300 snaps in 2014 — he dropped just three of the 61 catchable passes thrown his way."
OUCH!!

 
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BigTex

Don't mess with Texas
That article was from 2016? You know they’ve change their evaluations a lot since then? I’m seriously asking not trying to be funny.

Tex

 

Milkman

Footballguy
I’ve found four articles on Montez from PFF: 

From Michael in December of 2018: Polite was talked about in the same breath as Josh Allen, Brian Burns and Montez Sweat for the best first step in this class prior to the combine.

We at PFF have said for years that sack numbers can be misleading. Even the most prolific pass-rushers will still only register sacks on less than five percent of their pass-rushes. That’s why even though we have Sweat down for 23 sacks over the last two seasons, we’re worried about his pass-rushing production. He’s only notched 44 pressures this season which ranks 30th among edge defenders and of those 44 pressures, 17 were either unblocked or deemed clean-up pressures. That translates to only a few true pass-rushing wins per game which sounds far less impressive than his sack totals. 

Steve’s Mock Drafting October 2018 going #32 to the Rams: LOS ANGELES RAMS – EDGE MONTEZ SWEAT, MISSISSIPPI STATE. The Rams still lack elite playmakers on the edge, and Sweat has developed nicely, picking up 27 pressures on only 174 rushes this season.

From Michael’s Mock Draft in February of 2019: 16. CAROLINA PANTHERS – MONTEZ SWEAT, EDGE, MISSISSIPPI STATE. Sweat fits the size/length profile the Panthers seem to prefer from their ends. With Julius Peppers hanging it up, it’s a glaring need.

So What’s exactly wrong about what they are saying here?

Tex
We'll have to revisit this after he plays in the NFL. He's a more complete player than Bosa imo and he'll make more plays around the LOS not just rush the passer. He was the best player at the senior bowl. I like PFF but sometimes I don't understand some of their rankings. 

 

menobrown

Footballguy
I don't take PFF very seriously.
I actually agree with this if we are talking about their rankings. If you use PFF for just data it's really good,  not sure it's worth the price but it's really good data, I've never cared at all for their actual rankings.

 

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