Scouting the Scouts!(NFL draft guides comparison/opinion) (1 Viewer)

[menobrown]

This year was my first exposure to his work, but I'm not a Matt Miller fan at all.

Not a fan of his comps but he was the only one I know who had Michael Thomas as his #1 WR.

 

[BoltBacker]

That article was from 2016? You know they’ve change their evaluations a lot since then? I’m seriously asking not trying to be funny.

Tex

Well, I would certainly ASSUME so but I have no proof that it has changed. Just as I would assume their evaluations will have changed a lot in 2022 from what they are doing now. Do you honestly think they won't change the way they are doing evaluations today in any way three years from now?

I guess I don't subscribe to the idea, "Well, they were selling evaluations back then that were different than the way they do them today so you can't really hold them accountable for their 2016 evals. Oh, and you can't really hold them accountable for the evals they are doing right now because it's too early to tell if there is any value in them or not based on how the players have done in the NFL. But it deosn't really matter because three years from now they will be doing evals in some new way and how they did back in 2019 won't really matter either." Sounds to me like you are saying people should never pay for what PFF is selling THIS YEAR. The good stuff is what they will be selling three years from now. And people think that I hate PFF! I do know for sure that people were throwing around PFF opinions in 2016 as if they were stone cold facts that should be the final word on pretty much any subject football related. 

If you use our product and nothing is happening..... that's how you know it's working!

 

[King of the Jungle]

Nobody nails it every time. It is impossible. Especially when you consider these rankings are pre-draft. Not knowing the upcoming team, coaching, competition, injury setbacks, and work ethic are HUGE factors that nobody can foresee. Wall Street cannot figure itself out with all of the fundamental and technical information available. Throw in human behavior and other factors and we are left believing in some analytical system or somebody’s gut feeling. Ultimately I am not sure how impressive any of it is (even the against the norm hits) as they have also had misses. Just like the stock market there is no magic formula. And if we decide there is and we all use it, it loses its magic. But we are all human so let’s keep searching for it.

With that longer than needed babble being said I do prefer a systematic approach with some type of numerical evaluation. I think when we can establish useful numerical trends we can decrease our chances of failure (not eliminate). That may be our best bet. 

Of course in the end doesn’t it always feel best when we “hit” with our gut?

 

[BigTex]

Nobody nails it every time. It is impossible. Especially when you consider these rankings are pre-draft. Not knowing the upcoming team, coaching, competition, injury setbacks, and work ethic are HUGE factors that nobody can foresee. Wall Street cannot figure itself out with all of the fundamental and technical information available. Throw in human behavior and other factors and we are left believing in some analytical system or somebody’s gut feeling. Ultimately I am not sure how impressive any of it is (even the against the norm hits) as they have also had misses. Just like the stock market there is no magic formula. And if we decide there is and we all use it, it loses its magic. But we are all human so let’s keep searching for it.

With that longer than needed babble being said I do prefer a systematic approach with some type of numerical evaluation. I think when we can establish useful numerical trends we can decrease our chances of failure (not eliminate). That may be our best bet. 

Of course in the end doesn’t it always feel best when we “hit” with our gut?

Hammer hits nail!

I don’t think we can eliminate all failure but we can certainly increase the probability on hits. It’s about data, finding the right data to support success rate therefore decreasing that failure rate. I’m not going to get caught up in a unless debate about someone’s ranking that will end up nowhere. I’d rather know what intangible data or system has been successful. There has been some data that has increased my winnings but I to expand on a larger level and I’m not sure I’m ready to get in that ring yet but that time will come.

Tex

 

[BigTex]

We'll have to revisit this after he plays in the NFL. He's a more complete player than Bosa imo and he'll make more plays around the LOS not just rush the passer. He was the best player at the senior bowl. I like PFF but sometimes I don't understand some of their rankings. 

I’m confused, are they not supporting what you are saying?

Tex

 

[Milkman]

I’m confused, are they not supporting what you are saying?

Tex

They have him ranked as the 47th best player in this draft. I have him tied with Bosa and ranked 2nd. That's where we differ. 

 

[Bronco Billy]

They have him ranked as the 47th best player in this draft. I have him tied with Bosa and ranked 2nd. That's where we differ. 

News flash: That PFF doesn’t align with your opinion of players doesn’t make them the joke you seem to think they are.

 

[Men-in-Cleats]

There was plenty of competition for targets when Thomas arrived in NO.  He wasn’t given anything - he earned it through shear talent.  I tend to believe that Caroo would not have done the same thing.  Talent always wins out.  Thomas would have been fine in MIA.  He would have soaked up a ton of opportunity because he would have been hands down the best WR on their roster and QBs throw those guys the football a lot - and losing teams provide WRs lots of opportunities.

NO did not have that much in the way of serious talent when Thomas arrived other than Cooks.  Carroo was more of a deep threat in college and would have had to deal with Cooks in New Orleans and Thomas would have had to deal with a more similar player to himself in Jarvis Landry and the two probably would have hurt each other's numbers.  In New Orleans, Thomas didn't have any other real talents to beat out for catches other than Cooks, and those two complemented each other's talents moreso than hurt each other's numbers.

That said, I had a bunch of picks in that draft and ended up getting the dogcrap trifecta out of that draft as I had a need at WR in my dynasty league and ended up with Treadwell, Carroo, and the Miss. St. Mike Thomas with Jordan Payton thrown in late for good measure.  Treadwell paces the group with 56-517-1 over three seasons while the rest combined for 21-325-2 over that span.  It was one of those drafts where everyone I really wanted went 1-3 picks before my turn.