LOL at all the 'Skin fans trying to convince themselves they have a chance in this game. I especially like the guy laughing at Seattle for "only" beating the Rams at home by a touchdown, while the 'Skins lost to the Rams this year. And I am also laughing at the comparisons of the two divisions. You seriously want to compare the 'Hawks and 49'ers to the Redskins and .......who? Who? The 'Hawks are expected to win by Vegas and I think they are still not getting it right. I believe the 'Hawks will win by 17+. This game will not be close.
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums
This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!
Seattle @ Washington ... Pregame chatter (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Raider Nation
- Start date
silentcoach
Footballguy
I did. It does not change anything. I already pointed out that stats are backwards looking and can be manipulated to prove what we want. I used season stats to make my assumptions.You didn't check the link out.PPG--you lost @ det and @ mia, i can pin point to things, just like you can. The fact remains that washington is the number 1 rush offense and sea is below average at stopping the run when teams actually run. All stats are backwards looking so they are not indiciative of what will happen, so SEA may be able to stop the run but thinking that SEA is"in the clear" because they faced average qbs and teams that refused to run is an unreasonable argument and makes you look "homerish" at best.Re: silentcoach Read the link above and rethink your arguement.http://www.hawkblogger.com/2013/01/first-impressions-redskins-face-tough.html
Great article with lots of statistical breakdown of both teams. After reading its easy to see why Vegas odd makers have the hawks favored in this one.
PPG allowed is more important then ypc fwiw. Last time I checked at least.
silentcoach
Footballguy
More common opponents would be fun, but we can use the rams as an example:without Garcon the skins put up 28 @ rams...seattle.... 13 and a late 20 at home. Carolina was their only other common opponent. (sea 16 @ car, and wsh 13 at home, again without garcon).
Last edited by a moderator:
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Seahawks have played 6 of the top 10 rushing teams. They beat all 6. I don't think this game comes down to rushing.
Last edited by a moderator:
silentcoach
Footballguy
In the end, I am not suggesting wsh is better than sea, and I'm merely using "actual" reasoning to make points, while everyone else just makes conclusory statements.
silentcoach
Footballguy
sigh, when will you learn? =( You're a fan, I get it. Let me explain why it will come down to rushing. Ready?It will come down to rushing because SEA will win, if you can stop the rush. Redskins will win if you cannot. Hence, it comes to rushing. Comprende ?Seahawks have played 6 of the top 10 rushing teams. They beat all 6. I don't think this game comes down to rushing.
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
I suggest you investigate the meaning of actual.
silentcoach
Footballguy
Bitter, I see I've won here. Good luck on Sunday!!
This is from Mike Clay's twitter feed. I think we all respect Mike's take on things as a huge football and fantasy football insider.
Mike Clay @MikeClayNFL
Even though Seattle would have to win 3 road games to get to the Superbowl, it's hard to pick against them @WAS @ATL and @SF or GB .
Expand
Mike Clay @MikeClayNFL
Even though Seattle would have to win 3 road games to get to the Superbowl, it's hard to pick against them @WAS @ATL and @SF or GB .
Expand
Last edited by a moderator:
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
He just gained a follower.
The 2012 Seacocks remind me a lot of the 2006+ NY Jets.
Second-best in their division, known as much for their trash talking and bravado as their on-field play, and favored by the industry experts (most of the talking heads favored the Seahawks to take the NFC west this year and we know how that worked out).
They're almost universally favored to take out the Redskins this week and make it to the NFC Championship, but outside of the Pacific Northwest, most people are going to enjoy watching them walk their long path to humility.
Second-best in their division, known as much for their trash talking and bravado as their on-field play, and favored by the industry experts (most of the talking heads favored the Seahawks to take the NFC west this year and we know how that worked out).
They're almost universally favored to take out the Redskins this week and make it to the NFC Championship, but outside of the Pacific Northwest, most people are going to enjoy watching them walk their long path to humility.
mad sweeney
Footballguy
Since when? I don't think I saw anyone predict any team but SF to take the NFCW this year. You can make arguments for some of your other points perhaps, but you're completely dead wrong on this one. Also, who else besides Sherman is a trash talker?'mdlane said:
drummer
Footballguy
mdlane is a 49er fan.
5 digit know nothing
Footballguy
Redskins have only played 2 of the top 10 teams for rush defense in the league:Tampa and PittsburghWAS attempted on average 26 rushes against these two teams, 20% fewer rush attempts compared to their per game averageWAS attempted 35 pass attempts in each of these games, 30% more pass attempts compared to their per game average'silentcoach said:
Last edited by a moderator:
I think most Skins fans on this board have been saying that this game should be one of the best this weekend win or lose. Should be a great matchup with the two best rookie QBs going head to head.
Is it all the rain that makes you guys such complete dooshbags?
5 digit know nothing
Footballguy
FTR I am not a Seahawk fan.
fatness
Footballguy
southeastjerome
Footballguy
The Seahawks played the top 11 passing teams and went 11-0 against them.
dgreen
Footballguy
At least the Pats fans waited for a Super Bowl win.Remember when Seahawks fans were accused of badmouthing a dead Sean Taylor in the 2007 playoffs?
dgreen
Footballguy
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Skins posted 31 vs the Bengals and 28 at the Rams. They didn't struggle against those defenses, they just lost close games.This is just one part coincidence and one part just a reflection of the fact that a team with a good defense is more likely to be a good team and therefore more difficult to beat. It doesn't "clearly suggest" anything. And it's kinda weird to see someone sharp enough to read and cite footballoutsiders' DVOA stats who doesn't understand that.'ImTheScientist said:
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
Captain Quinoa
Footballguy
Congrats ITS you are officially the new Lhucks
RGIII HTTR
Footballguy
*sigh*
Hooper31
Footballguy
I can't understand how people perceive there is this collective "Seahawks fans" group. Their is no collective us. Please quit trying to label us as a group based on the homer rants of one guy. You're just being lazy.
I'm a Seattle fan and think this game is a coin flip. Instead of trying to search for some meaningless stat that will make me feel better I think I'll just wait for the game and enjoy it.
I'm a Seattle fan and think this game is a coin flip. Instead of trying to search for some meaningless stat that will make me feel better I think I'll just wait for the game and enjoy it.
dgreen
Footballguy
Cousins has run more QB draws in the last 7 weeks that Griffin. (OK, I made that up. Cousins has run it once and I just don't remember Griffin running it in a long time. It's possible he has.) They used it to great effect early in the season and have put that play away since then. I wouldn't rule it out going forward, but the QB draw just isn't something opposing teams will see on recent tape.
dgreen
Footballguy
Mr. Bojangles
Footballguy
Would you feel better if Seahawks fans just posted why the team will lose on Sunday?
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
Regardless of who you're a fan of, I think we'd all feel better if people stopped cherry-picking statistics and acting like they have some special insight.It's really pretty simple. By and large the advanced metrics tell you that on a neutral field, Seattle (#1 in the league in DVOA and weighted DVOA, to pick one system) would be a decent but not overwhelming favorite over Washington (#9 in DVOA, #6 in weighted DVOA). The fact that the game is in Washington moves it closer to even, although it probably still leaves Seattle as a slight favorite. The Vegas line confirms it.Talking about grass/synthetic or common opponents or looking for rhyme or reason in how one offense or defense did against other offenses or defenses of a certain rank is useless. I could probably cherry-pick an argument to show the Jaguars would beat the Broncos if you want. But why look at just part of the picture?
5 digit know nothing
Footballguy
who does that make silentcoach?
SEVERAL THINGS:1. The other thing that is crazy about how we are cherry picking stats is that it often misses the notion that teams "evolve." Take the Redskins for instance. In many respects, they are a much different team before the bye (3-6) than after the bye (7-0). There is some very specific differences.For instance, defensively, before the bye, the Redskins lost a lot of those games due to their penchant for giving up the long bomb. Examples: Cincinnati, Giants. After the bye, they have adjusted that defense so they are not giving up as many big plays. You are not being objective by pulling all stats from the entire year to evaluate the Redskins CURRENT defense. I'm not saying they are an elite defense or anything -- just that your stats and analysis is by it's nature flawed, as it does not take into account that the teams actually play NEXT week with their CURRENT teams and not through some sort of magical aggregation of the entire year. Or, we've been talking a lot about the Rams. One poster said that it was a joke that the Redskins were bringing up the Rams example as the Skins lost to them and Seattle beat them. News flash: like Washington, Seattle lost to the Rams when they played on the road. You neglected to acknowledge that fact. But the point is, you can't just look at the idea that the Redskins lost to the Rams then; therefore, they would lose to them 9 out of 10 games now. The Skins defense (the reason they lost most of those early games) is totally different now.The other thing is, folks are acting like if you shut down the Read Option, the Redskins have no other offense, totally ignoring the fact that they have varied their offense ever since the Baltimore game -- Cleveland, Philly, Dallas -- none of those games were won because RGIII "took over." If Seattle shuts down RGIII's running, the Redskins will have another plan. They aren't going into the game thinking: let's do this one thing and if it doesn't work, f it. The game is simply more dynamic than that.2. Even as a Skins fan, I'm not saying that the team is going to crush Seattle. In fact, I think that it's appropriate that Seattle is favored. They have a better defense and an equivalent offense, so giving them the edge is legit. At the same time, some of you guys are saying things like: Seattle is going to win by 17 or Seattle will "easily stop RGIII." Those comments do not arise out of some well thought out anaysis of football. By contrast, history shows us that these games are very often close, even if one team is favored. The fallacy comes in because people are homers and just see what they want to see. Example: Seattle fans really think just because they are physical, they will totally styme the Redskins rushing attack; basically there is nothing they can do about it, the game is over. They can say this because there is this sense that the Redskins offensive line sucks. Apparently we only have Trent Williams and then 4 other guys that should be backups; that's what everyone -- including many Redskins fans think. But the reality is this: those 4 guys are grown men and they are not coming into the game thinking: "I'm not blocking because some guy on the Internet says I have no shot." They are thinking, "we are the number 1 rush offense in the NFL. Yes, those guys are good, but we will knock them back." In this respect the game will not come down to stats. The game will come down to who executes better -- in this case the Redskins offensive line vs. the Seattle defensive front. This is not Madden. These are real men playing the game. The Redskins will suit up just like the Seahawks. Saying the Skins will lose by 17 is actually a joke. And I'm saying this as someone who says the Hawks would win say 7 out of 10 times but I'm just hoping that Sunday is one of the 3 times. That's how football is...you just have to win on that Sunday and you move on. I think I'm with the poster that says in a way stats are pointless in this respect. We just have to watch the game and see who executes the best. Often a game comes down to who makes more plays. It's very likely that that happens once more...
Last edited by a moderator:
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
I was thinking the same. That guy must have missed the endless hours of RGIII love. Most people didn't even see the hawks play until the media decided to hype them after the niners game. Id imagine there are some fans that believe this is a rivalry game between two teams in the same state.
Me, I'm a Redskins fan and I HATE the RGIII hype. I think it's unfair to him and really sets him up for failure. The guy is still a rookie and he can and will make mistakes. For instance, he obviously still needs to learn to protect himself. But instead of seeing him as a rookie who needs to learn, we see it as a "tragic flaw" that he will be injured his whole career.On the east coast, we know that Seattle is good but they certainly haven't been a media darling. Honestly, even though Dallas is mediocre I see them hyped more than anyone...
CapnJB
Footballguy
What you said here is exactly true. And also completely applicable to the Seahawks. Both teams finished the season 7-1 and are playing completely different football then they were in the beginning of the year. Should be a great game! It's tough being a Seahawk fan stuck in the DC area but this week has been fun. I do like the Skins and always root for them right up until the point they play Seattle... and I'm really glad we get to see a RGIII vs Wilson game. I'm thrilled that one of them is going to get a playoff win in their rookie season... Here's hoping for long, amazing careers for them both!
TobiasFunke
Footballguy
That's only two things
And one of the two stats I cite, weighted DVOA, does exactly what you complain about stats not doing- values recent performance and trends over data from earlier in the year.But otherwise, yes, predictions as definite as "Seattle will win by 17" or that they'll "easily " do something are really stupid. They might win by 30. And they might lose by 30. But either result is unlikely, and therefore a dumb thing to predict. If you were smart enough to consistently project results that varied from the Vegas lines by two TDs, you'd be posting from your $20 million villa on your private island purchased from your gambling winnings. Anyone doing that?
Last edited by a moderator:
Tau837
Footballguy
It is true that they are 3-5 on the road this year, but I think people are overestimating how how meaningful that is.1. All 5 road losses were by 7 points or less, so they were competitive in every road game.2. The loss at Arizona in week 1 was Wilson's first NFL start, and he threw 2 or 3 passes in the final minute that should have been caught for the game winning TD. They should be 4-4 on the road.3. They were 1-4 on the road in the first half of the season but are 2-1 on the road in the second half, with the only loss in a 1 pm EST game as far across the country (Miami) from Seattle as possible. And with a quality win at Chicago. Normally, this sample size might not mean much, but it could be meaningful with a rookie QB. Clearly, Wilson has gotten a lot more comfortable as the season has progressed, and it's showing in their results on the field.
I agree that it is true of the Seahawks too. For instance, they re-invigorated their offense mid season with more read option which makes their final run much more applicable than the early games. Seattle, like Washington is better RIGHT NOW than their season long stats. This is why I don't assume for a minute Skins will win, though as a Skins fan, I'm obviously rooting for them.Sorry you are a Hawks fan stuck in DC but we do get a lot of "transplants" because of the job market particularly...so I'm sure you're not alone!What you said here is exactly true. And also completely applicable to the Seahawks. Both teams finished the season 7-1 and are playing completely different football then they were in the beginning of the year. Should be a great game! It's tough being a Seahawk fan stuck in the DC area but this week has been fun. I do like the Skins and always root for them right up until the point they play Seattle... and I'm really glad we get to see a RGIII vs Wilson game. I'm thrilled that one of them is going to get a playoff win in their rookie season... Here's hoping for long, amazing careers for them both!
Ha, my fingers got tired...That's only two things
ImTheScientist
Footballguy
In analysis of your own team what do they do that pisses you off? I would be curious to hear what Redskin fans get pissed about or even Seahawk fans but I imagine Hawk fans share some of my own feelings posted below.
-Refuse to Blitz- you will never see this team blitz....maybe once every few games. They 100% rely on their front four to get to the QB. I would just like to see it every once in awhile to throw people off.
-Marcus Trufant- he is the nickle corner and is absolute garbage. Hopefully with Browner back Trufant never see's the field again in a seahawks uniform as they can use Lane at the nickle (I pray).
-Run, Run, Pass- this happened a lot more in the early portions of the season but even if the run game was ineffective they would call two straight runs and put Wilson in 3rd and long. Just mix it up.
-Field Goals- We don't try 50 yard field goals. Apparently Hauschka has the weakest leg in the NFL.
-Breno Giacomini- he is possible the dumbest human being on planet earth. I will poke my eyes out if he gets another penalty for running into a pile at full speed after the whistle.
-Refuse to Blitz- you will never see this team blitz....maybe once every few games. They 100% rely on their front four to get to the QB. I would just like to see it every once in awhile to throw people off.
-Marcus Trufant- he is the nickle corner and is absolute garbage. Hopefully with Browner back Trufant never see's the field again in a seahawks uniform as they can use Lane at the nickle (I pray).
-Run, Run, Pass- this happened a lot more in the early portions of the season but even if the run game was ineffective they would call two straight runs and put Wilson in 3rd and long. Just mix it up.
-Field Goals- We don't try 50 yard field goals. Apparently Hauschka has the weakest leg in the NFL.
-Breno Giacomini- he is possible the dumbest human being on planet earth. I will poke my eyes out if he gets another penalty for running into a pile at full speed after the whistle.
Last edited by a moderator:
5 digit know nothing
Footballguy
RGIII Passer Rating before their BYE: 95.0 (median: 90.4)
RGIII Passer Rating after their BYE: 110.5 (median: 102.2)
Wilson Passer Rating before their BYE: 93.0 (median: 98.1)
Wilson Passer Rating after their BYE: 112.5 (median: 110.1)
They have both come a long way
RGIII Passer Rating after their BYE: 110.5 (median: 102.2)
Wilson Passer Rating before their BYE: 93.0 (median: 98.1)
Wilson Passer Rating after their BYE: 112.5 (median: 110.1)
They have both come a long way
Last edited by a moderator:
