Sell High on Addai (1 Viewer)

[Max Power]

I just like the title because it rhymes

On a serious note... its hard to sell high on someone who had an ADP of 5. I know people have already open this thread with the idea of calling me crazy, stupid, insane, all the other good ones too. Just hear me out on this though.

So first lets look at the 4 guys that went before Addai. LT, SJAX, LJ, & Gore. Right now only Gore owners are happy with thier first pick. LT owners are probably not paniced yet. 2 tough games against tough Ds. Jax and LJ owners are probably not doing the best in most leagues. In my 2 big money leagues LT, Sjax, & LJ owners are a combined 5-7 record right now. (assuming tonight doesnt change anything) With one team (LT owner) at 2-0. So point one is that the owners of the big 3 are not sitting as pretty as they thought at this point. I know first picks dont make or break your team, and owners can overcome a first rounder that under produces. But from what I have seen so far, these owners are not lighting up the scoreboard right now.

A very strong case can be made for addai that he averages about 100 yards and a TD per game. Putting him on pace for a 1600 yard 16 TD season. so minus one bad game, 1500yrds-15TDs. Those are some top tier numbers. I bet you would be hard pressed to find an owner who would turn down a sales a pitch like that.

What I have seen from addai so far this season has been very average IMO. He is a good RB, but really just a product of the system. Addai does not seem to have the break away ability of elite backs. From watching the games, I noticed that addai got both of those TDs by luck. Harrison running out of bounds or going down right as he catches the ball inside the 5 yard line. Indy has scored most of thier TDs on the longer throws. They are an O that can score on any play from anywhere. I just dont see Addai getting the TD handed to him from inside the 5 every game.

We must also consider the fact that addai has NEVER carried the full load before. Im guessing he will max out around the 20 rushes per game. Yes I know he already has had a 23 rush game. Dungy needs to be careful with addai. If he goes down, it wont stop the O from moving the ball, but it will make the games a lot harder. Now consider that Indy has the playoffs clinched by week 13 or 14. I doubt you will get the full "Addai experience" during your playoffs run. Again what motivation does Dungy have to pound him late in the season? I can see him dropping down to about 12-15 carries at this point.

So my point is IF you can swing a deal for LJ, or Sjax, or even another great deal, you might want to consider it. (looks like I am about to get LJ, Calvin Johnson, & winslow for Addai, Crayton and scaife)

Addai's value will go up for another week or two max. Then the colts start thier tough stretch.

My point is just consider trading him...I know I am.

BTW I see him as 1300yrds 13 TD max guy right now.

 

[Raider Nation]

Wouldn't take me long to name the RBs I'd rather have than him.

 

[SeniorVBDStudent]

What I have seen from addai so far this season has been very average IMO. He is a good RB, but really just a product of the system.

So you are saying that if you knew what SJAX would do last year at the start of the year, you wouldn't want him?

 

[Avery]

What I have seen from addai so far this season has been very average IMO. He is a good RB, but really just a product of the system.

Hell of a system though.I'm not the biggest fan of Addai and I agree with the assessment about his abilities. Having said that in my league, I don't get bonus points for "innate skill" or a penalty for "product-of-the-system scores".It's all about the stats and, like him or not, I don't see how he will not continue to rack 'em up.

 

[Rev]

I'm ownin', and I'm not sellin'.

Your point about Addai not looking spectacular so far this year (which I disagree with but will grant for argument's sake) cuts both ways. If he continues to develop (this is his first season as a starting RB and 2nd NFL season), imagine the ceiling that he could have. The Colts will always be in the redzone, so I'm not worried about him getting plenty of goalline touches, and they will usually be ahead, meaning that he will continue to rack up good yardage games.

As his receiving ability develops, I actually see his stock rising, especially in PPR leagues.

Now if Manning, Harrison, and Wayne all get injured, and if Dungy gets fired, I'll sell him to you fairly cheap.

 

[Acme CEO]

this is horrible, this idea.

 

[Addai's Adidas]

I would sell if I thought he peaked. He hasn't. Quite average so far actually.

 

[Debeucci]

max,

it kind of sounds like you're trying to justify your trade of addai for LJ. i have addai in a league, but just being objective, his production thus far in the season to date has more than justified his 1.5-1.6 draft selection. but to hypothesize that dungy won't play addai much past weeks 13-14.. or that he can't shoulder a full load because he has never done so before... or that he is 'lucky' because receivers are stepping out of bounds inside the 5 yard line... none of those are concrete reasons to downgrade his anticipated production. it sounds like wishful thinking from someone that's about to trade him away. your thought that he is a product of the system would lead me to believe that it's a fantastic system, and any owner would be lucky to have him (and his system).

LJ is a beast. i was at the bears/chiefs game yesterday, and he is a big, big man. but without anybody helping him on the offensive line, or a qb that can take the pressure off the box, he's in for a long season. he'll have his games, but i think i'd stick with addai at this point...

your trade sounds good if you're in need to wr and te help... but if you're ok at those positions already...

 

[FFdork]

Maybe I'm lacking vision, but right now LT is the only guy I would try to trade Addai for (and obviously you'd still have to give more than Addai to get it done). I'd consider Gore straight up.

I'm sure things will get better for LJ and S. Jax, but how much better?

 

[Kovax]

I took Addai at 6 in both my main leagues. I've watched both his games and was satisfied.

I will be trading Addai this year but only because I think there is a good chance he plays less near the end of the season with the Colts wanting to rest some top players.

I think the original trade mentioned (Addai, Crayton, Scaife for Winslow, CJ and LJ) is a great trade for the pre-trade Addai owner. But is it really reflective of how he would be valued in the majority of leagues?

I was a little disappointed at the playcalling this past Sunday. Several times the Colts were inside the 5 and Manning chose to pass. And it didn't turn out the best. I think the Colts will look to establish the run inside the 5 and give Addai more carries. I think Addai will continue to have a great season.

 

[Dt's Mules]

last year, i overthought things in a contract league i'm in and traded gore for ronnie brown early in the year when the were both overachieving (but i thought gore was overachieving more)...gore only had 2 years on his deal and brown had 3....sometimes the best trade is the one you don't make

i won't make that same mistake this year with addai.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Ill give you this, thats the most work i have ever noticed someone do to hide a ACF question.

 

[playin4beer]

I have him in two leagues and am actually trying to trade him straight up for S.Jax. My reasoning??? It's as simple as this:

Payton Manning is a ####### BALL HOG!!

I watched the complete Indy/Tenn game and at the end with Indy nursing a 2pt lead and needing to kill the clock what was Manning doing?? Yep, chucking the ball all over the place. The announcers were all over his jock about how he was soooo smart to run the play clock down to 1-2 secs before taking the snap. Great, but what does that do when you quickly throw an incomplete pass?

I was rooting for the Titans to drive down the field and kick a FG to win it after Manning throwing a couple of quick passes. At that time in a game with the clock needing to be killed, you run, run, and run some more. It wasn't like Addai wasn't effective, he was gaining yards in chunks.

Now I know what you're thinking...but it's PAYTON MANNING!! Who's hands do you want the game in when it's on the line? And therein is my point...It will ALWAYS be in Payton's hands at the end of the game.

I want the RB that's going to get force fed the ball with a lead late in the game....that's not Addai. He's the SAFE pick, but he won't get you that 25 point game.

 

[Raider Nation]

I will be trading Addai this year but only because I think there is a good chance he plays less near the end of the season with the Colts wanting to rest some top players.

Pretty much the worst reason I've ever heard to trade someone. It's a myth that the Colts rest their players late in the season every year. Even when they do, it's only for a portion of week 17. I remember a couple of years ago, Manning played a little less than a half in week 17 against Denver. He put up WAY better stats in far fewer snaps than Sorgi did with far more snaps. Plus, with so many good teams in the AFC, there is a good chance that Indy will still have a seed on the line in their last couple of games.

 

[FFdork]

I forgot to mention that I would do LJ, Calvin Johnson, & winslow for Addai, Crayton and scaife.

 

[Max Power]

Well as a poster above mentioned, maybe I am just tryin to justify my trade. I needed to do it though. My WR#3 and TE combined for .90 points this weekend.

Wish I would have gaged Addai's value better. So what I am getting is that the forum thinks Addai will finish as the #2 RB in fantasy this year?

Id take that bet anyday....

My only real point was that the big 3 have not been all that impressive so far. If you can pick one of them and another reliable starter for addai, you should do it

 

[menobrown]

Addai will produce top notch numbers all year long while he remains healthy but I've to say owning him is making me a nervous wreck. He's been the man for two games now and in both games he has taken hard shots and had to leave the game. The only big time starting RB I think would make me nervous owning is Frank Gore. Things like the trainer looking at his knee at the end of the game this week is just the kind of nerve wracking stuff I try to avoid.

 

[Tom Baker]

I have him in two leagues and am actually trying to trade him straight up for S.Jax. My reasoning??? It's as simple as thisayton Manning is a ####### BALL HOG!!I watched the complete Indy/Tenn game and at the end with Indy nursing a 2pt lead and needing to kill the clock what was Manning doing?? Yep, chucking the ball all over the place. The announcers were all over his jock about how he was soooo smart to run the play clock down to 1-2 secs before taking the snap. Great, but what does that do when you quickly throw an incomplete pass?I was rooting for the Titans to drive down the field and kick a FG to win it after Manning throwing a couple of quick passes. At that time in a game with the clock needing to be killed, you run, run, and run some more. It wasn't like Addai wasn't effective, he was gaining yards in chunks.Now I know what you're thinking...but it's PAYTON MANNING!! Who's hands do you want the game in when it's on the line? And therein is my point...It will ALWAYS be in Payton's hands at the end of the game.I want the RB that's going to get force fed the ball with a lead late in the game....that's not Addai. He's the SAFE pick, but he won't get you that 25 point game.

EXCELLENT point. It would have been divine justice had the Colts lost that game, the way they were dicking around at the end to pad the Golden Boy's stats, rather than simply putting away the Titans with a couple of runs and, if necessary, a field goal.

 

[Native]

Some comments:

Addai has been asked to pass block more in the first two games than any Indi RB in recent memory. This may be a byproduct of Tarik Glenn retiring and Tony Ugoh still not being entirely comfortable playing on an island (he was ok on Sunday but he still had some trouble on isolated plays vs Van Der Bosch). Whatever the reason, Addai has not been involved in the passing game at all thus far.

That said, I expect this to change as Ugoh continues to gain confidence/experience. As Ugoh progresses, I wouldnt be surprised if the Colts gradually go away from Max Protection. Plus, as teams watch tape of the first few games and begin scheming more against the Colts WR's and TE's, its inevitable that Manning will adjust and get Addai more involved as a passing threat. I know Addai worked a LOT on his receiving during the preaseason so Id be surprised if we dont see him more involved in the passing game at some point this year.

Just my two cents. Addai hasnt yet come close to reaching his full potential yet.

 

[switz]

So what I am getting is that the forum thinks Addai will finish as the #2 RB in fantasy this year?Id take that bet anyday....My only real point was that the big 3 have not been all that impressive so far. If you can pick one of them and another reliable starter for addai, you should do it

Problem is that OF the big 3, the only one I seriously foresee finishing the season with better stats than Addai is LT. Does that mean Addai is going to finish #2? Not at all, but it does mean I don't see SJAx or LJ finishing ahead of him either. Gore could, FWP could, but if you trade Addai for those guys it's a bad deal on your end. And do you REALLY think you're going to get LT, LJ, or SJax PLUS a player for Addai???

 

[Cool in the pocket]

I have him in two leagues and am actually trying to trade him straight up for S.Jax. My reasoning??? It's as simple as thisayton Manning is a ####### BALL HOG!!I watched the complete Indy/Tenn game and at the end with Indy nursing a 2pt lead and needing to kill the clock what was Manning doing?? Yep, chucking the ball all over the place. The announcers were all over his jock about how he was soooo smart to run the play clock down to 1-2 secs before taking the snap. Great, but what does that do when you quickly throw an incomplete pass?I was rooting for the Titans to drive down the field and kick a FG to win it after Manning throwing a couple of quick passes. At that time in a game with the clock needing to be killed, you run, run, and run some more. It wasn't like Addai wasn't effective, he was gaining yards in chunks.Now I know what you're thinking...but it's PAYTON MANNING!! Who's hands do you want the game in when it's on the line? And therein is my point...It will ALWAYS be in Payton's hands at the end of the game.I want the RB that's going to get force fed the ball with a lead late in the game....that's not Addai. He's the SAFE pick, but he won't get you that 25 point game.

If memory serves, Addai had a 4 TD game last year while sharing the load with Rhodes. I can't think of a scoring system where this isn't well over 25 points...Teams have to respect the Colts ability to throw the ball, so Addai will be able to run the ball, he just needs to make sure he uses the opps he gets.

 

[delusional]

Seeing how other top RBs are doing this season, I think it would be a bad move to sell Addai.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

I just offered Larry Johnson to the Addai owner straight up and was refused. However, Addai has some additional value in our league for next season due to our keeper rules (can be kept for a 6th rnd. pick). I was willing to throw in a mid-tier receiver like S. Holmes but was told not to bother.

 

[ocho]

i was offered Addai for Chad Johnson and Thomas Jones in a 12 team PPR league, i would be short at WR but my backs would be Addai,Travis, ADP and Green

 

[kutta]

I will be trading Addai this year but only because I think there is a good chance he plays less near the end of the season with the Colts wanting to rest some top players.

Pretty much the worst reason I've ever heard to trade someone. It's a myth that the Colts rest their players late in the season every year. Even when they do, it's only for a portion of week 17. I remember a couple of years ago, Manning played a little less than a half in week 17 against Denver. He put up WAY better stats in far fewer snaps than Sorgi did with far more snaps. Plus, with so many good teams in the AFC, there is a good chance that Indy will still have a seed on the line in their last couple of games.

It is going to be very interesting to see if Indy or NE end up with homefield throughout. That may not be decided until week 17 is in the books.

 

[jdoggydogg]

Completely disagree with the title post. I don't own Addai, but no way would I trade him for anything less than LT.

 

[meanjoegreen]

I will be trading Addai this year but only because I think there is a good chance he plays less near the end of the season with the Colts wanting to rest some top players.

Pretty much the worst reason I've ever heard to trade someone. It's a myth that the Colts rest their players late in the season every year. Even when they do, it's only for a portion of week 17. I remember a couple of years ago, Manning played a little less than a half in week 17 against Denver. He put up WAY better stats in far fewer snaps than Sorgi did with far more snaps.

A couple years ago (2005), Sorgi did WAY better than Manning.Week 16 Colts vs Seattle

Sorgi 22/31 237 yards 1 touchdown

Manning 9/12 116 yards

Week 17 Colts vs Arizona

Sorgi 20/30 237 yards 2 touchdowns 1 interception

Manning 1/2 5 yards

 

[Gbagzz]

I just like the title because it rhymes On a serious note... its hard to sell high on someone who had an ADP of 5. I know people have already open this thread with the idea of calling me crazy, stupid, insane, all the other good ones too. Just hear me out on this though.So first lets look at the 4 guys that went before Addai. LT, SJAX, LJ, & Gore. Right now only Gore owners are happy with thier first pick. LT owners are probably not paniced yet. 2 tough games against tough Ds. Jax and LJ owners are probably not doing the best in most leagues. In my 2 big money leagues LT, Sjax, & LJ owners are a combined 5-7 record right now. (assuming tonight doesnt change anything) With one team (LT owner) at 2-0. So point one is that the owners of the big 3 are not sitting as pretty as they thought at this point. I know first picks dont make or break your team, and owners can overcome a first rounder that under produces. But from what I have seen so far, these owners are not lighting up the scoreboard right now.A very strong case can be made for addai that he averages about 100 yards and a TD per game. Putting him on pace for a 1600 yard 16 TD season. so minus one bad game, 1500yrds-15TDs. Those are some top tier numbers. I bet you would be hard pressed to find an owner who would turn down a sales a pitch like that. What I have seen from addai so far this season has been very average IMO. He is a good RB, but really just a product of the system. Addai does not seem to have the break away ability of elite backs. From watching the games, I noticed that addai got both of those TDs by luck. Harrison running out of bounds or going down right as he catches the ball inside the 5 yard line. Indy has scored most of thier TDs on the longer throws. They are an O that can score on any play from anywhere. I just dont see Addai getting the TD handed to him from inside the 5 every game.We must also consider the fact that addai has NEVER carried the full load before. Im guessing he will max out around the 20 rushes per game. Yes I know he already has had a 23 rush game. Dungy needs to be careful with addai. If he goes down, it wont stop the O from moving the ball, but it will make the games a lot harder. Now consider that Indy has the playoffs clinched by week 13 or 14. I doubt you will get the full "Addai experience" during your playoffs run. Again what motivation does Dungy have to pound him late in the season? I can see him dropping down to about 12-15 carries at this point.So my point is IF you can swing a deal for LJ, or Sjax, or even another great deal, you might want to consider it. (looks like I am about to get LJ, Calvin Johnson, & winslow for Addai, Crayton and scaife)Addai's value will go up for another week or two max. Then the colts start thier tough stretch. My point is just consider trading him...I know I am. BTW I see him as 1300yrds 13 TD max guy right now.

I'd rather have a decent RB in an awesome system Addai/Colts then an excellent rb in a horrible system LJ/Chiefs.And why would you want a rb that's carried the load... that just means they're more worn down... less tread in the tires.

 

[bostonfred]

I will be trading Addai this year but only because I think there is a good chance he plays less near the end of the season with the Colts wanting to rest some top players.

Pretty much the worst reason I've ever heard to trade someone. It's a myth that the Colts rest their players late in the season every year. Even when they do, it's only for a portion of week 17. I remember a couple of years ago, Manning played a little less than a half in week 17 against Denver. He put up WAY better stats in far fewer snaps than Sorgi did with far more snaps. Plus, with so many good teams in the AFC, there is a good chance that Indy will still have a seed on the line in their last couple of games.

It is going to be very interesting to see if Indy or NE end up with homefield throughout. That may not be decided until week 17 is in the books.

That's true, but it will really be decided in week 9.