Shane Vereen (2 Viewers)

[Mr Non Sequitur]

I do not understand the Shane Vereen hype. I can accept that he has played some great games from a FF POV...but I truly think some FF owners out there are not thinking clearly. That could be because they have already drafted or own Vereen in dynasty. Of course everyone that has posted nice things about him will cry they don't own him in any leagues but we(SP) know better.

Vereen's top 10 rush att per game over his 1st 3 seasons: 14, 11, 10, 10, 10, 8, 8, 8, 7, 5...I don't see a guy that will command 14-16 carries a game, he is at best 8-10 guy IMO so the bulk is gonna be via receptions. Now before I roll those numbers out, think about this for a second, you really believe that BB and Brady are dreaming at night of throwing 5 and 6 yd dumps to Vereen on their way to the Super Bowl? Vereen racked up 47 receptions in about 8 games last year so everyone has him penciled in for a cool 100 this year.

I remember when SJax went over 90 one season in receptions and everyone was positive he would catch at least 75 balls the following year and I think we all know how that story ended. RBs that can make a living in the NFL as mostly receiving threats are far and few between, very few can continue to produce year in and year out. One of the best ever IMO was a FB from Ohio State named Keith Byars.

If you are doing projections and you have Vereen at about 80, I think you're making a big mistake. 1st of all, why pump that big of a number in there? How about 50 receptions and perhaps 800/900 total yards, 5-6 TD? Why the need to try and blow this guy up when you have Ridley with 450+ rushing attempts the last 2 seasons and a very versatile rookie in James White who seems like he is going to get some piece of the pie there and seems the most poised to be a 2 or 3 down back on entire drives. I'm not suggesting anyone can be a 300 touch guy in this offense, BB just doesn't do it that way lately, oh the days of Corey Dillon.

So I'm not trying to pick a fight with Vereen supporters but I find it a little extreme how many balls people are counting on him to grab. Gronk, Edelman, Amendola(while healthy), the rest of the WRs who will have to be better.

And I just want it to be said, do not put it above the Pats to go out and sign a WR or trade for a guy late in camp as the season is ready to roll that could shake this up big time. A lot of WRs have been linked to possible trade discussions. I realize it's the off season and everyone is trading everyone but it would seem like NE would be ripe if the right situation presents itself.

I'm not anti-Vereen but I sure am not eager to run to the podium. Not sure where I see his ADP but to this point it feels a little high for me.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Now before I roll those numbers out, think about this for a second, you really believe that BB and Brady are dreaming at night of throwing 5 and 6 yd dumps to Vereen on their way to the Super Bowl?

possibly

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

Now before I roll those numbers out, think about this for a second, you really believe that BB and Brady are dreaming at night of throwing 5 and 6 yd dumps to Vereen on their way to the Super Bowl?

possibly

Looks good untouched and busted coverage, maybe he can rack 4-5 of those over the season. They do play the Jets twice.

2012 BTW, 49-19, same Jets where Sanchez ran into the butt of his OL. And that was Vereen's only receiving TD all season. In fact he only caught only 58 yards worth of offense the other 15 games combined.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Now before I roll those numbers out, think about this for a second, you really believe that BB and Brady are dreaming at night of throwing 5 and 6 yd dumps to Vereen on their way to the Super Bowl?

possibly

Looks good untouched and busted coverage, maybe he can rack 4-5 of those over the season. They do play the Jets twice.

what plays are you imagining bb and brady dream of at night?

because they certainly seem to like the short field.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

what plays are you imagining bb and brady dream of at night?

because they certainly seem to like the short field.

I added a few more notes but I don't think they can rely on the play you highlighted to rest their season on

Can I get some Kool-Aid while you're standing there? Thanks bud.

I don't hate him, he just is gone before I would want to draft him, that's a fair statement.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Now before I roll those numbers out, think about this for a second, you really believe that BB and Brady are dreaming at night of throwing 5 and 6 yd dumps to Vereen on their way to the Super Bowl?

possibly

2012 BTW, 49-19, same Jets where Sanchez ran into the butt of his OL. And that was Vereen's only receiving TD all season. In fact he only caught only 58 yards worth of offense the other 15 games combined.

well, he was in on 13% of the snaps that year, with woodhead getting 34%.

is this actually the snap distribution you're predicting for 2014?

 

[Ghost Rider]

If he can stay healthy this year, Vereen should be a PPR beast. I am surprised anyone would argue otherwise. If he only gets 8-10 carries a game, it won't matter if he catches 75+ balls. See: Darren Sproles in New Orleans.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

Now before I roll those numbers out, think about this for a second, you really believe that BB and Brady are dreaming at night of throwing 5 and 6 yd dumps to Vereen on their way to the Super Bowl?

possibly

2012 BTW, 49-19, same Jets where Sanchez ran into the butt of his OL. And that was Vereen's only receiving TD all season. In fact he only caught only 58 yards worth of offense the other 15 games combined.

well, he was in on 13% of the snaps that year, with woodhead getting 34%.

is this actually the snap distribution you're predicting for 2014?

Good question. I gotta think about that, I'll get back to you.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

If he can stay healthy this year, Vereen should be a PPR beast. I am surprised anyone would argue otherwise. If he only gets 8-10 carries a game, it won't matter if he catches 75+ balls. See: Darren Sproles in New Orleans.

I think 8-10 is generous, I highlighted his largest number of attempts, he doesn't routinely get 10 carries a game.

106/21=5 rush attempts per game the last 2 seasons vs Ridley 468/30=15+ per game.

With White entering the picture I don't see Vereen getting a larger share of the pie. Especially with more weapons and more guys coming back healthy to start the season. I see him in the 850-1,000 yds total for the season and TD will be harder to predict but he isn't gonna see a lot of red zone looks on the ground.

What are your totals right now or do you go more on a feeling/Info read than hard stats? Was Vereen hurt weeks 14-16 last year? He got all of 6 rushing attempts with Ridley in the dog house at the time IIRC and he racked up 7 total receptions over those same 3 weeks. He did manage a couple TDs but that seems kind of fluky on such a low number of attempts and covers up some interesting numbers.

Food for thought, always like your posts.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Was Vereen hurt weeks 14-16 last year?

he left early week 16 with a groin injury

he caught 12 balls on 17 targets in week 14, so I have no idea wtf you're talking about there

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Now before I roll those numbers out, think about this for a second, you really believe that BB and Brady are dreaming at night of throwing 5 and 6 yd dumps to Vereen on their way to the Super Bowl?

possibly

Looks good untouched and busted coverage, maybe he can rack 4-5 of those over the season. They do play the Jets twice.

2012 BTW, 49-19, same Jets where Sanchez ran into the butt of his OL. And that was Vereen's only receiving TD all season. In fact he only caught only 58 yards worth of offense the other 15 games combined.

oh, also, I should probably correct this, as these threads get so cluttered with misinformation.

he had 2 other receiving td in the playoff game against houston, for a total of 3 in that game and 124 yds, catching 5 balls.

I believe he got more than 13% of the snaps that week

 

[PatsWillWin]

If he can stay healthy this year, Vereen should be a PPR beast. I am surprised anyone would argue otherwise. If he only gets 8-10 carries a game, it won't matter if he catches 75+ balls. See: Darren Sproles in New Orleans.

I think 8-10 is generous, I highlighted his largest number of attempts, he doesn't routinely get 10 carries a game.

106/21=5 rush attempts per game the last 2 seasons vs Ridley 468/30=15+ per game.

With White entering the picture I don't see Vereen getting a larger share of the pie. Especially with more weapons and more guys coming back healthy to start the season. I see him in the 850-1,000 yds total for the season and TD will be harder to predict but he isn't gonna see a lot of red zone looks on the ground.

What are your totals right now or do you go more on a feeling/Info read than hard stats? Was Vereen hurt weeks 14-16 last year? He got all of 6 rushing attempts with Ridley in the dog house at the time IIRC and he racked up 7 total receptions over those same 3 weeks. He did manage a couple TDs but that seems kind of fluky on such a low number of attempts and covers up some interesting numbers.

Food for thought, always like your posts.

White is getting a lot of hype considering there hasn't even been a pre-season game yet. Personally, I think the hole left by Blount will be larger than the impact of White.

 

[Boston]

Now before I roll those numbers out, think about this for a second, you really believe that BB and Brady are dreaming at night of throwing 5 and 6 yd dumps to Vereen on their way to the Super Bowl?

possibly

Looks good untouched and busted coverage, maybe he can rack 4-5 of those over the season. They do play the Jets twice.

2012 BTW, 49-19, same Jets where Sanchez ran into the butt of his OL. And that was Vereen's only receiving TD all season. In fact he only caught only 58 yards worth of offense the other 15 games combined.

oh, also, I should probably correct this, as these threads get so cluttered with misinformation.

he had 2 other receiving td in the playoff game against houston, for a total of 3 in that game and 124 yds, catching 5 balls.

I believe he got more than 13% of the snaps that week

Vereen is like Edelman last year...if he can stay on the field for 16 games he will be a big part of the offense...it is that simple...the kid is a playmaker and both BB and Brady trust him...for fantasy purposes it is safer to focus on his reception totals since that will be his bread and butter and predicting rushing carries for any Patriot RB is always a dicey situation unless it is 2004 and your name is Corey Dillon...

 

[CentralPA]

Now before I roll those numbers out, think about this for a second, you really believe that BB and Brady are dreaming at night of throwing 5 and 6 yd dumps to Vereen on their way to the Super Bowl?

possibly

Rex Ryan can kiss his butt

 

[CentralPA]

Love Vereen's skill set but i'm with Non-Sequitir, not buying him at his current ADP. He drops in to the 6th or 7th round then i'll snag him. BB is just way to unpredictable with his play calling. Have no clue how many snaps Vereen will be in on.

 

[Warpig]

I think part of the allure is they let Blount walk and Ridley has a tendency to wind up in the dog house due to his fumbling or other mental blunders. They (BB and co.) may trust Vereen more in certain scenarios. We've known the Pats to throw the ball all over the field and perhaps last year was an anomaly since I believe they ran more than usual late in games more than they've done in years past. Word so far sounds like they are wanting to go back to more of a passing game that worked so well for them in previous years...spreading teams out wide with Gronk over the middle and Vereen underneath. If that is the case, Vereen could be a bargain if healthy. 4 - 5 receptions per game with 8 carries per game would be good to me. I am a Vereen owner and he helped me a good deal last year. I do expect his numbers to increase this year...IF HEALTHY. Seems like most people are down on him so if you can get him cheap then it may be worth the investment. But there are a few out there that over value him...stay away from those guys.

And Ridley is a FA next year. Vereen is listed as the #1 RB on the depth chart. Not saying that means much at this time or in a Pats offense...but the possibility is there.

 

[PhantomJB]

Vereen has high-end RB2 upside being drafted as a mid-RB2 in PPR.

Mid RB2 upside being drafted as a low-end RB2 in non-PPR.

Seems about right.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

Was Vereen hurt weeks 14-16 last year?

he left early week 16 with a groin injury

he caught 12 balls on 17 targets in week 14, so I have no idea wtf you're talking about there

His last 3 games of 2013, am I seeing things? I see 3 out of 7 targets, 1 out of 2, and 3 out of 5 or 7 receptions as I mentioned.

Game 14-12/15 3 receptions

Game 15-12/22 1 reception

Game 16-12/29 3 receptions

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/V/VereSh00/gamelog//

 

[Ghost Rider]

If he can stay healthy this year, Vereen should be a PPR beast. I am surprised anyone would argue otherwise. If he only gets 8-10 carries a game, it won't matter if he catches 75+ balls. See: Darren Sproles in New Orleans.

I think 8-10 is generous, I highlighted his largest number of attempts, he doesn't routinely get 10 carries a game.

106/21=5 rush attempts per game the last 2 seasons vs Ridley 468/30=15+ per game.

With White entering the picture I don't see Vereen getting a larger share of the pie. Especially with more weapons and more guys coming back healthy to start the season. I see him in the 850-1,000 yds total for the season and TD will be harder to predict but he isn't gonna see a lot of red zone looks on the ground.

What are your totals right now or do you go more on a feeling/Info read than hard stats? Was Vereen hurt weeks 14-16 last year? He got all of 6 rushing attempts with Ridley in the dog house at the time IIRC and he racked up 7 total receptions over those same 3 weeks. He did manage a couple TDs but that seems kind of fluky on such a low number of attempts and covers up some interesting numbers.

Food for thought, always like your posts.

Vereen had 47 catches in 8 games last year, and then another 16 in only 2 playoff games, so it's easy to think he'll be a beast in PPR if he plays a full slate of games this year. Sproles averaged less than 5 carries games in his three years in NO and was a PPR monster thanks to having 232 catches in those three years. I am not saying NE will use Vereen just like Sproles did, but I think the ratio of carries to catches will be similar, especially if we use last year as a useful guide. Touchdowns are obviously impossible to predict, especially with a RB being primarily used as a catching back, but I think 6-8 seems like a safe bet. In other words, Vereen won't need a lot of carries to still be a highly productive fantasy RB in PPR leagues.

 

[[icon]]

Was Vereen hurt weeks 14-16 last year?

he left early week 16 with a groin injury

he caught 12 balls on 17 targets in week 14, so I have no idea wtf you're talking about there

Burn.

2012 BTW, 49-19, same Jets where Sanchez ran into the butt of his OL. And that was Vereen's only receiving TD all season. In fact he only caught only 58 yards worth of offense the other 15 games combined.

well, he was in on 13% of the snaps that year, with woodhead getting 34%.

is this actually the snap distribution you're predicting for 2014?

Burn.

Love Vereen's skill set but i'm with Non-Sequitir, not buying him at his current ADP. He drops in to the 6th or 7th round then i'll snag him. BB is just way to unpredictable with his play calling. Have no clue how many snaps Vereen will be in on.

In 12T PPR Leagues over the last month (per FFCalc) Vereen is currently RB18 at 4.01 just beating out Gerhart, Jennings, and Sankey.

You are seeing Vereen down in the RB30 range in PPR? (round 6-7)? Around Woodhead/Sproles/Ridley tier then?

What are your projections for Vereen this year?

 

[humpback]

Was Vereen hurt weeks 14-16 last year?

he left early week 16 with a groin injury

he caught 12 balls on 17 targets in week 14, so I have no idea wtf you're talking about there

His last 3 games of 2013, am I seeing things? I see 3 out of 7 targets, 1 out of 2, and 3 out of 5 or 7 receptions as I mentioned.

Game 14-12/15 3 receptions

Game 15-12/22 1 reception

Game 16-12/29 3 receptions

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/V/VereSh00/gamelog//

Difference between weeks and games.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

Was Vereen hurt weeks 14-16 last year?

he left early week 16 with a groin injury

he caught 12 balls on 17 targets in week 14, so I have no idea wtf you're talking about there

His last 3 games of 2013, am I seeing things? I see 3 out of 7 targets, 1 out of 2, and 3 out of 5 or 7 receptions as I mentioned.

Game 14-12/15 3 receptions

Game 15-12/22 1 reception

Game 16-12/29 3 receptions

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/V/VereSh00/gamelog//

Difference between weeks and games.

Do his last 3 weeks of the season show the numbers I highlighted or no? I'm kind of surprised folks are getting that dicey about this. I linked to PFR, can anyone explain the Pats game plan those last 3 weeks of 2013?

Here's a real shocker, Vereen in 3 seasons has not gone over 700 yards combined, never had 100 carries in a season either. To act like there is no risk here or possible swings is a little obtuse IMO. But to each their own.

 

[[icon]]

I have Vereen at 13G - 78 Rec - 700 Rec Yds - 425 Rush Yds - 7 TDs Total

If he's able to 16G (a gamble admittedly), I don't think 90/850 Receiving is outlandish at all which would put him as a top 20 WR without even running the ball once. With moderate Rushing estimates that would put him in RB5-7 range.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I don't think what Vereen did in 2011 and 2012 matters since he was barely used and/or hurt, plus he clearly knew the offense a lot better last year than he did the first two years.

To me, the biggest concern would be if the Patriots defense is a lot better this year, which could put them in less shootouts than last year and/or games where they are playing from behind a lot.

Also, to correct myself, he had 14 targets, not catches, in the playoff games last year. He had 7 catches in those two games. I read it wrong earlier.

 

[humpback]

Was Vereen hurt weeks 14-16 last year?

he left early week 16 with a groin injury

he caught 12 balls on 17 targets in week 14, so I have no idea wtf you're talking about there

His last 3 games of 2013, am I seeing things? I see 3 out of 7 targets, 1 out of 2, and 3 out of 5 or 7 receptions as I mentioned.

Game 14-12/15 3 receptions

Game 15-12/22 1 reception

Game 16-12/29 3 receptions

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/V/VereSh00/gamelog//

Difference between weeks and games.

Do his last 3 weeks of the season show the numbers I highlighted or no? I'm kind of surprised folks are getting that dicey about this. I linked to PFR, can anyone explain the Pats game plan those last 3 weeks of 2013?

Here's a real shocker, Vereen in 3 seasons has not gone over 700 yards combined, never had 100 carries in a season either. To act like there is no risk here or possible swings is a little obtuse IMO. But to each their own.

I'm just pointing out why the numbers are different- you originally said weeks 14-16, then you said games. The 12 catches came in week 14, which was game 13. As far as explaining the game plan, he did have 7 targets against Miami, Baltimore was a blowout win, and he had 5 targets and a TD against the Bills. Those also came during the period where they were feeding Blount because he was very effective.

That being said, who is saying that there's no risk with him? He's being drafted as a RB 2, which seems about right to me. Has both upside and downside from there.

 

[FF Ninja]

If you are doing projections and you have Vereen at about 80, I think you're making a big mistake.

This is my thinking, too. If you are drafting Vereen, you are pretty much living on a prayer. You NEED Ridley to get in the dog house and for White to be a bust and another Gronk/Dola injury. Vereen was featured last year in the passing game because they had no other options. This year they don't have as nice of receiving options as they've had in the past, but this set of options is an embarrassment of riches compared to last year. Their #1 option in week 1 was an undrafted FA who caught 4 of 14 targets. Amendola is actually pretty good when healthy, some of the best hands in the game. Plus they just paid Edelman. Both of those guys will eat into Vereen's would-be (read: short) targets. Thompkins and Dobson should both be improved and they brought in LaFell for some reason I have to assume. A healthy Gronk will command a lot of targets.

Bottom line is that this is a different team than last year. Vereen won't be as needed as a safety valve. If you draft him, you desperately need some outside help. You are pretty much going for a runner-runner flush in hold'em. Don't be that guy.

Also, most of his supporters make sure to qualify "PPR" in their posts, but do you guys still draft him in 0.5 leagues? What about 0 ppr leagues where his ADP drops from RB18 to RB24?

Vereen is not a smart play this year, but there are some possible, albeit unpredictable, scenarios where his supporters could foul hook an RB2 here and act like they saw it coming all along.

 

[IheartGuinness]

Vereen has high-end RB2 upside being drafted as a mid-RB2 in PPR.

Mid RB2 upside being drafted as a low-end RB2 in non-PPR.

Seems about right.

I'd agree with that. In a 12T PPR keeper league, I'm keeping him at the price of a sixth-round pick. I think that's decent, but not great value. In a standard league, I wouldn't have even considered keeping him at that price.

 

[JamesTheScot]

If you are doing projections and you have Vereen at about 80, I think you're making a big mistake.

This is my thinking, too. If you are drafting Vereen, you are pretty much living on a prayer. You NEED Ridley to get in the dog house and for White to be a bust and another Gronk/Dola injury. Vereen was featured last year in the passing game because they had no other options. This year they don't have as nice of receiving options as they've had in the past, but this set of options is an embarrassment of riches compared to last year. Their #1 option in week 1 was an undrafted FA who caught 4 of 14 targets. Amendola is actually pretty good when healthy, some of the best hands in the game. Plus they just paid Edelman. Both of those guys will eat into Vereen's would-be (read: short) targets. Thompkins and Dobson should both be improved and they brought in LaFell for some reason I have to assume. A healthy Gronk will command a lot of targets.

Bottom line is that this is a different team than last year. Vereen won't be as needed as a safety valve. If you draft him, you desperately need some outside help. You are pretty much going for a runner-runner flush in hold'em. Don't be that guy.

Also, most of his supporters make sure to qualify "PPR" in their posts, but do you guys still draft him in 0.5 leagues? What about 0 ppr leagues where his ADP drops from RB18 to RB24?

Vereen is not a smart play this year, but there are some possible, albeit unpredictable, scenarios where his supporters could foul hook an RB2 here and act like they saw it coming all along.

What makes you think that his performance on the field in 2013 didn't impact how the coaches perceive his utility this season?

You act as if it's unheard of for a guy to get on the field and actually earn more touches based on how effective he is once he gets out there.

 

[Run It Up]

They utiilized Vereen in that role for the first time Week 1. I think its safe to say they had plans to use him that way regardless of the fact that they were heavily handicapped.

 

[Biabreakable]

I have Vereen at 13G - 78 Rec - 700 Rec Yds - 425 Rush Yds - 7 TDs Total

If he's able to 16G (a gamble admittedly), I don't think 90/850 Receiving is outlandish at all which would put him as a top 20 WR without even running the ball once. With moderate Rushing estimates that would put him in RB5-7 range.

Over the last 3 seasons only one RB has had more than 77 receptions. That was Darrin Sproles in 2011 who had 86 receptions.

Going back further only 3 RB have had 90 or more receptions. LT in 2003 had 100, Steven Jackson in 2006 had 90, Brian Westbrook in 2007 had 90.

I have Shane Vereen getting 105 rushing attempts 452 rushing yards 2TD 65 targets 51 receptions 535 receiving yards 2TD. and I consider that projection to be optimistic.

 

[Chaka]

If he can stay healthy this year, Vereen should be a PPR beast. I am surprised anyone would argue otherwise. If he only gets 8-10 carries a game, it won't matter if he catches 75+ balls. See: Darren Sproles in New Orleans.

8 carries/game and 75 balls puts him at 203 touches on the season. That seems high to me.

I think Kevin Faulk is a good comp for what to expect from Vereen. Faulk played 15 or more games 8 times with New England and had one season with 226 touches (24 years old) and one season with 215 touches (27) so it is certainly possible that Vereen gets 200+ touches. However in those six other seasons Faulk had 141 (32), 109 (31), 99 (33), 89 (26), 71 (25) & 68 (30) touches.

Faulk also never had more than 58 receptions in a season. Those 58 receptions represents the most receptions by any running back in 14 years of the Belichick/Brady offense in New England.

I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for 75 receptions or 200 touches for Vereen.

 

[IheartGuinness]

I have Vereen at 13G - 78 Rec - 700 Rec Yds - 425 Rush Yds - 7 TDs Total

If he's able to 16G (a gamble admittedly), I don't think 90/850 Receiving is outlandish at all which would put him as a top 20 WR without even running the ball once. With moderate Rushing estimates that would put him in RB5-7 range.

Over the last 3 seasons only one RB has had more than 77 receptions. That was Darrin Sproles in 2011 who had 86 receptions.

Going back further only 3 RB have had 90 or more receptions. LT in 2003 had 100, Steven Jackson in 2006 had 90, Brian Westbrook in 2007 had 90.

I have Shane Vereen getting 105 rushing attempts 452 rushing yards 2TD 65 targets 51 receptions 535 receiving yards 2TD. and I consider that projection to be optimistic.

Which would put him right within the RB2 tier in a PPR league, which I think is fair. I think he's a serviceable RB2 or a solid flex in PPR, but definitely not a No. 1. We won't see Sproles' 2011 numbers from this guy.

 

[[icon]]

I have Vereen at 13G - 78 Rec - 700 Rec Yds - 425 Rush Yds - 7 TDs Total

If he's able to 16G (a gamble admittedly), I don't think 90/850 Receiving is outlandish at all which would put him as a top 20 WR without even running the ball once. With moderate Rushing estimates that would put him in RB5-7 range.

Over the last 3 seasons only one RB has had more than 77 receptions. That was Darrin Sproles in 2011 who had 86 receptions.

Going back further only 3 RB have had 90 or more receptions. LT in 2003 had 100, Steven Jackson in 2006 had 90, Brian Westbrook in 2007 had 90.

I have Shane Vereen getting 105 rushing attempts 452 rushing yards 2TD 65 targets 51 receptions 535 receiving yards 2TD. and I consider that projection to be optimistic.

So you are projecting a 50% drop in utilization in the passing game over last year?

 

[matuski]

I have Vereen at 13G - 78 Rec - 700 Rec Yds - 425 Rush Yds - 7 TDs Total

If he's able to 16G (a gamble admittedly), I don't think 90/850 Receiving is outlandish at all which would put him as a top 20 WR without even running the ball once. With moderate Rushing estimates that would put him in RB5-7 range.

You are predicting him to have more receiving yards than any single combined yardage in his career. You are predicting him to have more combined yardage in 2014 than his entire career combined.

 

[Chaka]

I have Vereen at 13G - 78 Rec - 700 Rec Yds - 425 Rush Yds - 7 TDs Total

If he's able to 16G (a gamble admittedly), I don't think 90/850 Receiving is outlandish at all which would put him as a top 20 WR without even running the ball once. With moderate Rushing estimates that would put him in RB5-7 range.

Over the last 3 seasons only one RB has had more than 77 receptions. That was Darrin Sproles in 2011 who had 86 receptions.

Going back further only 3 RB have had 90 or more receptions. LT in 2003 had 100, Steven Jackson in 2006 had 90, Brian Westbrook in 2007 had 90.

I have Shane Vereen getting 105 rushing attempts 452 rushing yards 2TD 65 targets 51 receptions 535 receiving yards 2TD. and I consider that projection to be optimistic.

So you are projecting a 50% drop in utilization in the passing game over last year?

You are predicting something that has never happened in 14 years under Bill Belichick with Tom Brady as the QB. Vereen is capable of catching 70 passes but I sincerely doubt it in this offense. 90 catches is an outrageous prediction.

There are too many receiving options and Brady is too good at distributing the ball for a back to pad his stats with a bunch of dump offs.

 

[Biabreakable]

I have Vereen at 13G - 78 Rec - 700 Rec Yds - 425 Rush Yds - 7 TDs Total

If he's able to 16G (a gamble admittedly), I don't think 90/850 Receiving is outlandish at all which would put him as a top 20 WR without even running the ball once. With moderate Rushing estimates that would put him in RB5-7 range.

Over the last 3 seasons only one RB has had more than 77 receptions. That was Darrin Sproles in 2011 who had 86 receptions.

Going back further only 3 RB have had 90 or more receptions. LT in 2003 had 100, Steven Jackson in 2006 had 90, Brian Westbrook in 2007 had 90.

I have Shane Vereen getting 105 rushing attempts 452 rushing yards 2TD 65 targets 51 receptions 535 receiving yards 2TD. and I consider that projection to be optimistic.

So you are projecting a 50% drop in utilization in the passing game over last year?

No.

Last season Shane Vereen had 44 rushing attempts 208 rushing yards 1TD 69 targets 47 receptions 427 receiving yards 3TD

My projection would not be a 50% drop in utilization. It is actually an increase.

Your numbers seem to be pro rating the 8 games he played into 16 games at the same level.

 

[Biabreakable]

I have Vereen at 13G - 78 Rec - 700 Rec Yds - 425 Rush Yds - 7 TDs Total

If he's able to 16G (a gamble admittedly), I don't think 90/850 Receiving is outlandish at all which would put him as a top 20 WR without even running the ball once. With moderate Rushing estimates that would put him in RB5-7 range.

Over the last 3 seasons only one RB has had more than 77 receptions. That was Darrin Sproles in 2011 who had 86 receptions.

Going back further only 3 RB have had 90 or more receptions. LT in 2003 had 100, Steven Jackson in 2006 had 90, Brian Westbrook in 2007 had 90.

I have Shane Vereen getting 105 rushing attempts 452 rushing yards 2TD 65 targets 51 receptions 535 receiving yards 2TD. and I consider that projection to be optimistic.

Which would put him right within the RB2 tier in a PPR league, which I think is fair. I think he's a serviceable RB2 or a solid flex in PPR, but definitely not a No. 1. We won't see Sproles' 2011 numbers from this guy.

Over the last 3 seasons RB24 has averaged 166.7 points in PPR

So my my projection for Vereen would be a borderline RB2 to RB3

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Was Vereen hurt weeks 14-16 last year?

he left early week 16 with a groin injury

he caught 12 balls on 17 targets in week 14, so I have no idea wtf you're talking about there

His last 3 games of 2013, am I seeing things? I see 3 out of 7 targets, 1 out of 2, and 3 out of 5 or 7 receptions as I mentioned.

Game 14-12/15 3 receptions

Game 15-12/22 1 reception

Game 16-12/29 3 receptions

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/V/VereSh00/gamelog//

some number of years ago the nfl instituted what they call 'bye weeks' where each team gets a week off during the season.

since then week 14 =/ game 14.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Was Vereen hurt weeks 14-16 last year?

he left early week 16 with a groin injury

he caught 12 balls on 17 targets in week 14, so I have no idea wtf you're talking about there

His last 3 games of 2013, am I seeing things? I see 3 out of 7 targets, 1 out of 2, and 3 out of 5 or 7 receptions as I mentioned.

Game 14-12/15 3 receptions

Game 15-12/22 1 reception

Game 16-12/29 3 receptions

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/V/VereSh00/gamelog//

Difference between weeks and games.

Do his last 3 weeks of the season show the numbers I highlighted or no? I'm kind of surprised folks are getting that dicey about this. I linked to PFR, can anyone explain the Pats game plan those last 3 weeks of 2013?

Here's a real shocker, Vereen in 3 seasons has not gone over 700 yards combined, never had 100 carries in a season either. To act like there is no risk here or possible swings is a little obtuse IMO. But to each their own.

ok, I'll draft that other guy in the 4th with no risk or possible variation.

thx for the heads up

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

If you are doing projections and you have Vereen at about 80, I think you're making a big mistake.

This is my thinking, too. If you are drafting Vereen, you are pretty much living on a prayer. You NEED Ridley to get in the dog house and for White to be a bust and another Gronk/Dola injury. Vereen was featured last year in the passing game because they had no other options. This year they don't have as nice of receiving options as they've had in the past, but this set of options is an embarrassment of riches compared to last year. Their #1 option in week 1 was an undrafted FA who caught 4 of 14 targets. Amendola is actually pretty good when healthy, some of the best hands in the game. Plus they just paid Edelman. Both of those guys will eat into Vereen's would-be (read: short) targets. Thompkins and Dobson should both be improved and they brought in LaFell for some reason I have to assume. A healthy Gronk will command a lot of targets.

did edelman eat his targets last year?

did gronk?

what numbers did vereen put up in week 1 when amendola got 14 targets?

I doubt even the truest vereen believer is predicting he'll get 100% of the pats offensive production this year.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

ok, I'll draft that other guy in the 4th with no risk or possible variation.
thx for the heads up

Kool

 

[IheartGuinness]

I have Vereen at 13G - 78 Rec - 700 Rec Yds - 425 Rush Yds - 7 TDs Total

If he's able to 16G (a gamble admittedly), I don't think 90/850 Receiving is outlandish at all which would put him as a top 20 WR without even running the ball once. With moderate Rushing estimates that would put him in RB5-7 range.

Over the last 3 seasons only one RB has had more than 77 receptions. That was Darrin Sproles in 2011 who had 86 receptions.

Going back further only 3 RB have had 90 or more receptions. LT in 2003 had 100, Steven Jackson in 2006 had 90, Brian Westbrook in 2007 had 90.

I have Shane Vereen getting 105 rushing attempts 452 rushing yards 2TD 65 targets 51 receptions 535 receiving yards 2TD. and I consider that projection to be optimistic.

Which would put him right within the RB2 tier in a PPR league, which I think is fair. I think he's a serviceable RB2 or a solid flex in PPR, but definitely not a No. 1. We won't see Sproles' 2011 numbers from this guy.

Over the last 3 seasons RB24 has averaged 166.7 points in PPR

So my my projection for Vereen would be a borderline RB2 to RB3

I was an English major, so my math might be off (and obviously scoring systems will vary) but to me this looks like:

452 rushing yards = 45 points

2TDs = 12 points

51 receptions = 51 points

535 receiving yards = 54 points

2TD = 12 points

That's 174 points (I rounded the receiving yards). That would've made him a top-20 back last year, and a solid RB2.

 

[[icon]]

Last season Shane Vereen had 44 rushing attempts 208 rushing yards 1TD 69 targets 47 receptions 427 receiving yards 3TD

My projection would not be a 50% drop in utilization. It is actually an increase.

Your numbers seem to be pro rating the 8 games he played into 16 games at the same level.

Of course my numbers project out to a 16 game season. Has the NFL shortened their season and I somehow missed it, or are you definitively projecting Vereen to only play 8 games again this year?

Because if you're not projecting a halving of his utilization, it kinda HAS to be one or the other.

 

[Mr Non Sequitur]

Last season Shane Vereen had 44 rushing attempts 208 rushing yards 1TD 69 targets 47 receptions 427 receiving yards 3TD

My projection would not be a 50% drop in utilization. It is actually an increase.

Your numbers seem to be pro rating the 8 games he played into 16 games at the same level.

Of course my numbers project out to a 16 game season. Has the NFL shortened their season and I somehow missed it, or are you definitively projecting Vereen to only play 8 games again this year?

Because if you're not projecting a halving of his utilization, it kinda HAS to be one or the other.

People did the same with Amendola last year and started reaching for him in the 3rd round, 4th in most drafts. He had/has a lengthy injury history. I usually like my players who I plan on starting to be able to show that they can stay moderately healthy and relevant for weeks and weeks at a time. Have you looked over Vereen's career numbers to this point? He is almost a non factor in the running game, perhaps that changes in year 4 but at the end of the year last season he avg 2 carries per game, that's a FACT!

Now you want folks to adopt your projections of 16 games and receiving numbers that could possibly crack some all time numbers for RBs. I'm not here to try and rain on anyone's parade, I'm asking questions because the price tag on him for basically a single threat RB seems high.

Yes Sproles produced some really big numbers in the receiving department in NO but he also did it there for a few seasons, granted no one was sure when he went to NO exactly what his role would be.

FBG has him about mid 5th, that's almost the 6th round. I think in many local Hooters draft leagues you can get him in the 5th-6th, that might not be too bad honestly. I see people talking 4th which means a panic and some folks reaching in the 3rd.

Andre Ellington is about the same size, had about 1,000 combined, less than 150 carries and just under 40 receptions and he is going mid 3rd.

I think this should be an open dialogue and there doesn't need to be a rush to be right or wrong one way or the other. I'm just trying to ask what i feel are logical questions based on stat history of RBs who lean heavily on the passing game.

 

[FF Ninja]

If you are doing projections and you have Vereen at about 80, I think you're making a big mistake.

This is my thinking, too. If you are drafting Vereen, you are pretty much living on a prayer. You NEED Ridley to get in the dog house and for White to be a bust and another Gronk/Dola injury. Vereen was featured last year in the passing game because they had no other options. This year they don't have as nice of receiving options as they've had in the past, but this set of options is an embarrassment of riches compared to last year. Their #1 option in week 1 was an undrafted FA who caught 4 of 14 targets. Amendola is actually pretty good when healthy, some of the best hands in the game. Plus they just paid Edelman. Both of those guys will eat into Vereen's would-be (read: short) targets. Thompkins and Dobson should both be improved and they brought in LaFell for some reason I have to assume. A healthy Gronk will command a lot of targets.

Bottom line is that this is a different team than last year. Vereen won't be as needed as a safety valve. If you draft him, you desperately need some outside help. You are pretty much going for a runner-runner flush in hold'em. Don't be that guy.

Also, most of his supporters make sure to qualify "PPR" in their posts, but do you guys still draft him in 0.5 leagues? What about 0 ppr leagues where his ADP drops from RB18 to RB24?

Vereen is not a smart play this year, but there are some possible, albeit unpredictable, scenarios where his supporters could foul hook an RB2 here and act like they saw it coming all along.

What makes you think that his performance on the field in 2013 didn't impact how the coaches perceive his utility this season?

You act as if it's unheard of for a guy to get on the field and actually earn more touches based on how effective he is once he gets out there.

Earning more touches is one thing, but drawing 100 short passes is another. With all the weapons they've got, you think they are going to run 1/5th or 1/4th of their plays (pass+rush) through Vereen? He's a committee back. They've got several well paid, talented short target players. Why is Vereen going to get a ton of targets combined with a handful of rushing attempts?

They utiilized Vereen in that role for the first time Week 1. I think its safe to say they had plans to use him that way regardless of the fact that they were heavily handicapped.

What? I think it is safe to say they had very few other options in week 1, so yeah, of course they planned to use him. Now that they have other options, it is no longer a safe assumption to expect 2013 utilization.

Also, Brady threw the ball 628 times last year, making the third straight year for over 600 attempts. Should they pull the plug on that style, things won't be pretty for fantasy owners. Last year they threw 120 passes to RBs. If people think Vereen is going to have 75 receptions, then they must be expecting at least 100 targets. So that means almost no passes for White, Ridley, or Bolden. Good luck with that.

 

[FF Ninja]

If you are doing projections and you have Vereen at about 80, I think you're making a big mistake.

This is my thinking, too. If you are drafting Vereen, you are pretty much living on a prayer. You NEED Ridley to get in the dog house and for White to be a bust and another Gronk/Dola injury. Vereen was featured last year in the passing game because they had no other options. This year they don't have as nice of receiving options as they've had in the past, but this set of options is an embarrassment of riches compared to last year. Their #1 option in week 1 was an undrafted FA who caught 4 of 14 targets. Amendola is actually pretty good when healthy, some of the best hands in the game. Plus they just paid Edelman. Both of those guys will eat into Vereen's would-be (read: short) targets. Thompkins and Dobson should both be improved and they brought in LaFell for some reason I have to assume. A healthy Gronk will command a lot of targets.

did edelman eat his targets last year?

did gronk?

what numbers did vereen put up in week 1 when amendola got 14 targets?

I doubt even the truest vereen believer is predicting he'll get 100% of the pats offensive production this year.

Gronk and Amendola missed a lot of the year and/or played injured. But sure, let's just look at one week where Brady threw 52 times and extrapolate that for 16 weeks. I look forward to Brady's 832 pass attempt season.

I would love to see team projections, with targets, from those predicting 75 +/- receptions for Vereen.

 

[Chaka]

Last season Shane Vereen had 44 rushing attempts 208 rushing yards 1TD 69 targets 47 receptions 427 receiving yards 3TD

My projection would not be a 50% drop in utilization. It is actually an increase.

Your numbers seem to be pro rating the 8 games he played into 16 games at the same level.

Of course my numbers project out to a 16 game season. Has the NFL shortened their season and I somehow missed it, or are you definitively projecting Vereen to only play 8 games again this year?

Because if you're not projecting a halving of his utilization, it kinda HAS to be one or the other.

Do you honestly believe that something that has never happened in 14 years with Belichick and Brady will now happen? No RB during BB's tenure as HC has even had 60 catches let alone 75 or 90 (Kevin Faulk had 8 seasons with 15 or more games with the pats and maxed out at 58 catches and he is easily as good as Shane Vereen). Look at what happened with the Pats receivers last year.

Amendola 12 games, 6 starts

Gronk 7 games, 6 starts

Dobson 12 games, 9 starts

Thompkins 12 games, 8 starts

Hoomanawanui 13 games, 10 starts

Edelman is the only receiver on the Pats to be upright for all 16 games (11 starts). So unless anyone is predicting 5 receivers missing 24 games (and being hobbled for who knows how many more) I don't think it is realistic to project any Pat's pro-rated statistics over a whole season.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I think Kevin Faulk is a good comp for what to expect from Vereen. Faulk played 15 or more games 8 times with New England and had one season with 226 touches (24 years old) and one season with 215 touches (27) so it is certainly possible that Vereen gets 200+ touches. However in those six other seasons Faulk had 141 (32), 109 (31), 99 (33), 89 (26), 71 (25) & 68 (30) touches.

Faulk also never had more than 58 receptions in a season. Those 58 receptions represents the most receptions by any running back in 14 years of the Belichick/Brady offense in New England.

I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for 75 receptions or 200 touches for Vereen.

A WR had also never caught more than 101 balls in a season or gone over 1,200 receiving yards or caught 21 touchdowns before Randy Moss and Wes Welker got there.

No, I am not equating Vereen to Randy Moss, but simply pointing out that what they have done with past RBs is fairly irrelevant, since Belichick has shown that he will change his offensive philosophy from year to year. If he thinks Vereen getting the ball in his hands will help them win, he'll do it, and based on what we saw last year, I feel confident that he thinks that.

Also, with all due respect to Kevin Faulk, Vereen is more dynamic than he was; I am just not sure he is as durable. That is the big question with Vereen: can he stay healthy?

 

[Chaka]

I think Kevin Faulk is a good comp for what to expect from Vereen. Faulk played 15 or more games 8 times with New England and had one season with 226 touches (24 years old) and one season with 215 touches (27) so it is certainly possible that Vereen gets 200+ touches. However in those six other seasons Faulk had 141 (32), 109 (31), 99 (33), 89 (26), 71 (25) & 68 (30) touches.

Faulk also never had more than 58 receptions in a season. Those 58 receptions represents the most receptions by any running back in 14 years of the Belichick/Brady offense in New England.

I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for 75 receptions or 200 touches for Vereen.

A WR had also never caught more than 101 balls in a season or gone over 1,200 receiving yards or caught 21 touchdowns before Randy Moss and Wes Welker got there.

No, I am not equating Vereen to Randy Moss, but simply pointing out that what they have done with past RBs is fairly irrelevant, since Belichick has shown that he will change his offensive philosophy from year to year. If he thinks Vereen getting the ball in his hands will help them win, he'll do it, and based on what we saw last year, I feel confident that he thinks that.

Also, with all due respect to Kevin Faulk, Vereen is more dynamic than he was; I am just not sure he is as durable. That is the big question with Vereen: can he stay healthy?

No it's not irrelevant, it's a historical trend that should not be ignored unless you actually are suggesting that Vereen is close to a Wes Welker caliber player. Frankly I doubt he is a better player than Kevin Faulk and I have no idea what you mean by suggesting that Vereen is more dynamic than Faulk. Faulk was probably the most dynamic player on their offense for many seasons he did it all for the Pats for 13 years. Vereen needs to show a lot more than a single broken play before I will be willing to concede that he is a better player than Faulk.

You think 75 receptions is realistic which is fine but it is based on little more than hope. I will bet on the historical record and gladly take the under on that one.

 

[Run It Up]

They utiilized Vereen in that role for the first time Week 1. I think its safe to say they had plans to use him that way regardless of the fact that they were heavily handicapped.

What? I think it is safe to say they had very few other options in week 1, so yeah, of course they planned to use him. Now that they have other options, it is no longer a safe assumption to expect 2013 utilization.

Also, Brady threw the ball 628 times last year, making the third straight year for over 600 attempts. Should they pull the plug on that style, things won't be pretty for fantasy owners. Last year they threw 120 passes to RBs. If people think Vereen is going to have 75 receptions, then they must be expecting at least 100 targets. So that means almost no passes for White, Ridley, or Bolden. Good luck with that.

Gronk was out and Dobson was a game time decision and didn't play, Thompkins, Amendola, Edelman, Vereen and Ridley were all 100% going into the game and they utilized Vereen all game.

Im confused at how this doesn't look like a clear indication that using Vereen as a prototypical Sproles-esque role type player from the get-go? I mean, I watched the game - they very clearly wanted to use Vereen like that, and they did. I don't think it was an accident or out of necessity.