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Sleeper Alert: Rob Kelley - RB - WAS (1 Viewer)

stbugs said:
I will only say that there's no chance of a pick on AB's TD. Brown had the ball tracked, at worst he makes sure it isn't intercepted. That's what top tier WRs do every time to guys like Breeland. Also, it was a bit under thrown. What I'd take away from that is any top WRs will absolutely be open on Breeland. I wouldn't take away an almost INT on a play where Brown blew by him easily. 
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Link with Picture This is a discussion for another thread though. Mention (or @) me in a Redskins thread if you want to continue the discussion. 

 
@Chaka I don't think he'd be a stud but if he ran for 11/47/1 and then caught 3/25/0 that wouldn't be bad for a flex option. But yes, I agree that there probably isn't much here and at this point there's probably better options even on the waiver wire. 

 
Borden said:
I'm not saying Washington has an elite defence or anything like that but this could have been much closer. Especially, when you compare it to the 38 glowing neon score everyone will see.
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True. If Washington hadn't given up all the points they did, PITT would have had less points.

 
Chaka said:
Personally I don't trust Jay Gruden to 1) commit to the running game and 2) coordinate an effective running game even if he did actually commit to one.

In five seasons as a coordinator or head coach he averaged 439 attempts/season.  But the breakdown is very interesting between Cincinnati where he averaged 457 att/season (3 seasons) way down to 415 att/season (2 seasons) once he was calling all the shots in Washington.  I think the increased emphasis on the run in Cinci probably came from Marvin.

Now you could say that he has never really had much talent to work with and that would be mostly true.  2011 it was an aged out Cedric Benson, who was never truly impressive even in his prime.  2012 it was Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis who was never much of a running talent.  2013 it was BJGE and Bernard.  So I guess it can be argued that he really couldn't scheme much better to improve upon the 3.6, 4.1 & 3.9 yards per attempt during his three seasons in Cincinnati (3.9 ypa over those three seasons).

But in Washington I think it is a different situation.  Alfred Morris may not be his "type of back" but that guy averaged 4.7 yards per attempt on 611 carries in the two seasons prior to Gruden's arrival.  After Jay shows up Alfred averages 3.9 yards per attempt on 467 carries over two seasons.  Morris was a young back just hitting his prime (26 years old) and Gruden couldn't find a way to deploy his, unquestionably, most talented RB to better effect?  I put that on the coach.  Alf may not have been a scheme fit but great coaches figure out how to modify their scheme to maximize the talent they have.

So in two years calling the shots in Washington they have managed a paltry 3.9 yards per attempt on an equally paltry 830 attempts.

Point being, even if Jones and Thompson and every other RB on the roster goes down with ball cancer I wouldn't have high expectations for Rob Kelly.  Gruden just doesn't run enough or scheme the running game well enough to be hopeful for much more than what we have seen.
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:goodposting:

This just about sums it up. I think we can close the thread now. Nothing more to say. 

 
Borden said:
Link with Picture This is a discussion for another thread though. Mention (or @) me in a Redskins thread if you want to continue the discussion. 
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You are right, another thread. I'll be succinct. I saw the play/close up live and I still think it's a gigantic leap to say Breeland should have had the INT. We could take any close up picture of any CB with the ball going by their hands (looking in the opposite direction of the QB) and say they should have had an INT. Pass breakup, maybe, but interception, no.

 
Borden said:
Thompson looked undersized in pass pro
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That's being charitable. He was awful. And just think, Thompson is their replacement for Roy Helu, who always went in on passing downs and was released because he could not or would not block.

 
Chaka said:
Personally I don't trust Jay Gruden to 1) commit to the running game and 2) coordinate an effective running game even if he did actually commit to one.

In five seasons as a coordinator or head coach he averaged 439 attempts/season.  But the breakdown is very interesting between Cincinnati where he averaged 457 att/season (3 seasons) way down to 415 att/season (2 seasons) once he was calling all the shots in Washington.  I think the increased emphasis on the run in Cinci probably came from Marvin.

Now you could say that he has never really had much talent to work with and that would be mostly true.  2011 it was an aged out Cedric Benson, who was never truly impressive even in his prime.  2012 it was Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis who was never much of a running talent.  2013 it was BJGE and Bernard.  So I guess it can be argued that he really couldn't scheme much better to improve upon the 3.6, 4.1 & 3.9 yards per attempt during his three seasons in Cincinnati (3.9 ypa over those three seasons).

But in Washington I think it is a different situation.  Alfred Morris may not be his "type of back" but that guy averaged 4.7 yards per attempt on 611 carries in the two seasons prior to Gruden's arrival.  After Jay shows up Alfred averages 3.9 yards per attempt on 467 carries over two seasons.  Morris was a young back just hitting his prime (26 years old) and Gruden couldn't find a way to deploy his, unquestionably, most talented RB to better effect?  I put that on the coach.  Alf may not have been a scheme fit but great coaches figure out how to modify their scheme to maximize the talent they have.

So in two years calling the shots in Washington they have managed a paltry 3.9 yards per attempt on an equally paltry 830 attempts.

Point being, even if Jones and Thompson and every other RB on the roster goes down with ball cancer I wouldn't have high expectations for Rob Kelly.  Gruden just doesn't run enough or scheme the running game well enough to be hopeful for much more than what we have seen.
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That's sadly a good description of Gruden and the misuse of the running game since he's arrived. Alfred Morris is still a better RB than anyone on the Redskins roster, but Gruden spent 2 years phasing him out.

 
stbugs said:
You are right, another thread. I'll be succinct. I saw the play/close up live and I still think it's a gigantic leap to say Breeland should have had the INT. We could take any close up picture of any CB with the ball going by their hands (looking in the opposite direction of the QB) and say they should have had an INT. Pass breakup, maybe, but interception, no.
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"If they could catch, they'd be a WR."

~Said about every DB, everywhere, for decades. 

Every week, most DB's "should" have an Interception - but with oven mitts for hands, sadly, they don't. 

 
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So Gruden comes out and says Rob deserves more touches. Isn't this what everyone here was predicting?

Im surprised by the crickets...

 
I think I'm going to try and make room to stash this week. If he performs well he can earn a big role I think. Kind of like Alf and Jones last year. 

IIRC Gruden and Cousins had comments before the season about how they trust him in pass protection, which is big.

 
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From the comments it sounds like an RBBC forming. 

"I think you'll see more of Robert. I think Robert shows that he's deserving of carries," Skins coach Jay Gruden said Monday. "You know, we like Matt Jones, but I think there's a good combination there where the both of them can get the ball."

So, for FFB purposes, do folks here believe that Washington offers enough touches where two backs can split carries and be fantasy-relevant?  

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
So, for FFB purposes, do folks here believe that Washington offers enough touches where two backs can split carries and be fantasy-relevant?  
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I don't plan on starting him right now or anything.  My thought process remains the same: Matt Jones sucks and any RB getting an opportunity behind such a weak lead back has value.  His value might be higher now as an unknown than it is after he starts playing more, who knows?

I want him on my roster because I'm betting on opportunity, not because I'm betting on his talent.

 
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Chaka said:
Personally I don't trust Jay Gruden to 1) commit to the running game and 2) coordinate an effective running game even if he did actually commit to one.

In five seasons as a coordinator or head coach he averaged 439 attempts/season.  But the breakdown is very interesting between Cincinnati where he averaged 457 att/season (3 seasons) way down to 415 att/season (2 seasons) once he was calling all the shots in Washington.  I think the increased emphasis on the run in Cinci probably came from Marvin.

Now you could say that he has never really had much talent to work with and that would be mostly true.  2011 it was an aged out Cedric Benson, who was never truly impressive even in his prime.  2012 it was Ben Jarvus Green-Ellis who was never much of a running talent.  2013 it was BJGE and Bernard.  So I guess it can be argued that he really couldn't scheme much better to improve upon the 3.6, 4.1 & 3.9 yards per attempt during his three seasons in Cincinnati (3.9 ypa over those three seasons).

But in Washington I think it is a different situation.  Alfred Morris may not be his "type of back" but that guy averaged 4.7 yards per attempt on 611 carries in the two seasons prior to Gruden's arrival.  After Jay shows up Alfred averages 3.9 yards per attempt on 467 carries over two seasons.  Morris was a young back just hitting his prime (26 years old) and Gruden couldn't find a way to deploy his, unquestionably, most talented RB to better effect?  I put that on the coach.  Alf may not have been a scheme fit but great coaches figure out how to modify their scheme to maximize the talent they have.

So in two years calling the shots in Washington they have managed a paltry 3.9 yards per attempt on an equally paltry 830 attempts.

Point being, even if Jones and Thompson and every other RB on the roster goes down with ball cancer I wouldn't have high expectations for Rob Kelly.  Gruden just doesn't run enough or scheme the running game well enough to be hopeful for much more than what we have seen.
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Thanks for the like km, reminded me that I wanted to check in at some point and see where Gruden's offense is in rushing attempts.  They average 21 per game (19.6 to RBs), I haven't actually checked for adjusted attempts/game (with the byes and all) but I think that rate would put them at 29th in rushing attempts (4 of the teams below them currently had a bye, although KC is averaging a surprising 20.75 attempts/game).

They are doing much better with yards/attempt tied for 13th with 4.1.

 
I've been holding him in Dynasty because I just don't believe in Matt Jones.  Depending on how he looks when he gets his chance,  I'll probably try to flip him if he gets the starting role and has a decent week or two. 

 
Got awfully quiet in here after a brief groundswell....everyone reports that Kelley will get more touches, the FBG sharks go crazy....then Matt Jones comes out with another huge game and it's :crickets:  16 carries for 135 yards and a TD - yeah, this guy's terrible.  :unsure:

Let's see what Kelley did with his newfound opportunity and coaching love...5 carries for 59 yards...seems impressive until you see the long of 45. 

Not quite the RBBC some thought it would become...Jones appears to have staved off Kelley for yet another week. 

 
SayWhat? said:
16 carries for 135 yards...seems impressive until you see the long of 57.

Yeah, I think that's kind of a poor game to play.  
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Actually, no - it's still impressive. It means he averaged 5.2 yards per carry on the 15 carries that weren't the long run. 

Kelley by comparison averaged 3.5 yards per carry on the 4 carries that weren't the long run. 

I realize math is hard, but this one seemed pretty simple. ;)  

 
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Hot Sauce Guy said:
Actually, no - it's still impressive. It means he averaged 5.2 yards per carry on the 15 carries that weren't the long run. 

Kelley by comparison averaged 3.5 yards per carry on the 4 carries that weren't the long run. 

I realize math is hard, but this one seemed pretty simple. ;)  
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Ok, you're right.  That was dumb.  :lmao:

I should've put more thought into that.  So let's try again.  Since you took out the longest of Kelley's five runs and Jones had three times as many carries, then let's remove Jones' three longest runs.  So subtracting out the 57, 22, and 16 yard gains, then Jones only had 40 yards on 13 carries for 3.1ypc.  So, on a pro rata basis, he was worse than Kelley.  :thumbup:

 
I watch every damn Skins game.  Sorry but Matt Jones is terrible.  He fails to finish runs and use his size.  He runs more upright than even Chris Brown did.  He fails to see the open lanes and runs into traffic all the time.  The Skins blocked better this week because Jordan Reed was out, and the Eagles D was on the field forever because their offense stunk.  The Redskins had the ball for like 29 of the first 45 minutes.  The Eagles had only 6 first downs after the 3rd qtr.

That does not mean Kelley is any better.  He is a different style though, one I think will do better eventually.  But for this season, Jones gets the majority of the carries for now because McCloughan has a hard-on for him.

 
SayWhat? said:
Ok, you're right.  That was dumb.  :lmao:

I should've put more thought into that.  So let's try again.  Since you took out the longest of Kelley's five runs and Jones had three times as many carries, then let's remove Jones' three longest runs.  So subtracting out the 57, 22, and 16 yard gains, then Jones only had 40 yards on 13 carries for 3.1ypc.  So, on a pro rata basis, he was worse than Kelley.  :thumbup:
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Wow - really had to research for that one.  :pokey:

lol - look, the point wasn't that Matt Jones dramatically outperformed Kelley (which make no mistake, he totally, totally did), the point was that Kelley showed no signs of 1. making this a RBBC, or 2. Pushing Jones for more carries. 

I think the Rob Kelley luster may have worn off unless there's a Matt Jones injury. 

 
SayWhat? said:
If the above is your point, then I think you're about six weeks late on this. Kelley's luster was gone when he logged zero carries in week 1. 
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No, it was resurrected last week by news of coaches wanting to get Kelley more touches. This created a bit of a groundswell, which seems to have been quashed by another fine performance from Matt Jones.  

Granted, 5 is more than 0, but the dramatic increase in touches never really manifested for Kelley. 

 
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Why are you trying so hard to disparage Kelly? Fat Rob has looked pretty damn good everytime he's gotten an opportunity. The right type of opportunity hasn't emerged yet and it might not this year. Or it might. Who knows?... Matt Jones running style does lend itself to injury. Rob's the epitome of an ear to the ground, hand on the wire guy. 

 
LawFitz said:
Why are you trying so hard to disparage Kelly? Fat Rob has looked pretty damn good everytime he's gotten an opportunity. The right type of opportunity hasn't emerged yet and it might not this year. Or it might. Who knows?... Matt Jones running style does lend itself to injury. Rob's the epitome of an ear to the ground, hand on the wire guy. 
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Im not. Just observing that the dramatic increase in carries did not happen and that he was outperformed again by Jones.

it's not personal - just posting an update to a topic I've been involved with since week 1.  Why insinuate that it's a personal vendetta against Kelly? He didn't eat my cheeseburger or sleep with my sister then never call her again. I have nothing against Mr Kelley and wish him well. 

But the question here is whether he's worth rostering in 12+ team leagues.  Just a fantasy football discussion - try not to take it so seriously. 

 
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I like Kelley a good bit more than Jones, but I'd grab Thompson if you need a handcuff for Jones.  That's the only reason to get a Skins RB at this point.  

Thompson seems to be in the game  on important plays.  Plus Cousins has missed him numerous times in the flat on broken plays where he was WIDE open.

 
Brunell4MVP said:
I like Kelley a good bit more than Jones, but I'd grab Thompson if you need a handcuff for Jones.  That's the only reason to get a Skins RB at this point.  

Thompson seems to be in the game  on important plays.  Plus Cousins has missed him numerous times in the flat on broken plays where he was WIDE open.
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Yeah I kind of agree. After looking at SSND's utilization spreadsheet if Jones gets injured I see Kelly being the main rushing RB in Washington and Thompson seeing a modest increase in carries but maintaining his current role for the most part.  But, despite all the talk coming out of Washington, I don't see Kelly just stealing more than a handful of touches from Jones right now.

 
Seems like Thompson has leapfrogged Kelly based on their respective usage this weekend.

im actually considering a Thompson addition. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Actually, no - it's still impressive. It means he averaged 5.2 yards per carry on the 15 carries that weren't the long run. 

Kelley by comparison averaged 3.5 yards per carry on the 4 carries that weren't the long run. 

I realize math is hard, but this one seemed pretty simple. ;)  
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Variance comes into play quite a bit when dealing with such small sample sizes.   Blindly comparing YPC assumes there is the same potential for yards on every carry.   I'm not sure what kind of sample size you need for YPC to mean anything, but given the amount of variables that are out of the players control but contribute to that stat I am guessing it's longer than any player plays football. 

Matt Jones is bad,  but bad players can still produce fantasy points.  Rob Kelley doesn't look much better but he also doesn't look any worse and is free,  so I'm going to just hold. 

 
kittenmittens said:
Variance comes into play quite a bit when dealing with such small sample sizes.   Blindly comparing YPC assumes there is the same potential for yards on every carry.   I'm not sure what kind of sample size you need for YPC to mean anything, but given the amount of variables that are out of the players control but contribute to that stat I am guessing it's longer than any player plays football. 

Matt Jones is bad,  but bad players can still produce fantasy points.  Rob Kelley doesn't look much better but he also doesn't look any worse and is free,  so I'm going to just hold. 
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Except it seems like Rob Kelly isn't the beneficiary of Matt Jones reduced workload since Thompson dominated touches and was very productive.

you're free to do what you like with your roster - I wish you luck. 

The post you quoted is from week 6's game. Time moves forward. New samples are sized. ;)  

 
rascal said:
Isn't Chris Thompson the backup?
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Looking at this topic, not remotely. What are you, crazy? How dare you insult the greatness that is Rob Kelly?!? Good way to rile up the villagers dude - next thing you know they'll be lighting torches and burning your castle to the ground, while telling you to shut your whore mouth.  :unsure:

Looking at the usage by the team, 100% absolutely no question. 

:lol:  

Jokes aside, Gruden is saying Matt Jones isn't losing carries, but the tale of the tape says different - Thompson appears to have taken over but it could change week to week.  5+ YPC, lots of receptions, outperforming Jones & Kelly. If I had a gun to my head and had to start one, it would be Thompson.  But who the hell knows. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Except it seems like Rob Kelly isn't the beneficiary of Matt Jones reduced workload since Thompson dominated touches and was very productive.

you're free to do what you like with your roster - I wish you luck. 

The post you quoted is from week 6's game. Time moves forward. New samples are sized. ;)  
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I was actually just pointing out the irony in the simple math schtick while at the same time you were not appreciating the variance involved with that same simple calculation.

We will see what happens.  

I would rather have Thompson in PPR,  but he is fairly widely owned in my dynasty leagues already and this is the Rob Kelley thread. 

 
kittenmittens said:
I was actually just pointing out the irony in the simple math schtick while at the same time you were not appreciating the variance involved with that same simple calculation.

We will see what happens.  

I would rather have Thompson in PPR,  but he is fairly widely owned in my dynasty leagues already and this is the Rob Kelley thread. 
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Oh I appreciated it. But in the context of the discussion, e.g. "who performed better in the game", the sample size was irrelevant. You know, since the context was "1 game". 

Taking someone's post out of context doesn't make it ironic. FYI. 

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Looking at this topic, not remotely. What are you, crazy? How dare you insult the greatness that is Rob Kelly?!? Good way to rile up the villagers dude - next thing you know they'll be lighting torches and burning your castle to the ground, while telling you to shut your whore mouth.  :unsure:

Looking at the usage by the team, 100% absolutely no question. 

:lol:  

Jokes aside, Gruden is saying Matt Jones isn't losing carries, but the tale of the tape says different - Thompson appears to have taken over but it could change week to week.  5+ YPC, lots of receptions, outperforming Jones & Kelly. If I had a gun to my head and had to start one, it would be Thompson.  But who the hell knows. 
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As a Rob Kelley owner, I would have to agree.  Thompson has out snapped this alleged starter, Matt Jones over the past two weeks.  Thompson seems to be their best RB right now.

 
Hot Sauce Guy said:
Oh I appreciated it. But in the context of the discussion, e.g. "who performed better in the game", the sample size was irrelevant. You know, since the context was "1 game". 

Taking someone's post out of context doesn't make it ironic. FYI. 
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LOL.   Ypc is useless in the context of a one game sample size,  so obviously you didn't appreciate it or you would have realized what I was referring to.  

Ypc assumes all carries have the same potential for yardage, which they don't. 

 
kittenmittens said:
LOL.   Ypc is useless in the context of a one game sample size,  so obviously you didn't appreciate it or you would have realized what I was referring to.  
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No, it is you who doesn't understand what I understood when another person and I were coming to an understanding. Understand?  :unsure:

Ypc assumes all carries have the same potential for yardage, which they don't. 
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Yes, I understand that.   :yawn:

 
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