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Sleepers, Breakouts, and Busts (1 Viewer)

Doctor Detroit

Please remove your headgear
So let's take 3B

Sleeper: Josh Donaldson is being drafted in the 7th/8th round, if he plays 140+ games he's probably earning 3rd round value

Breakout: Nick Senzel should get everyday playing time and although he won't be playing 3B, he's eligible there in most places

Bust: Miguel Andujar is absolutely horrific in the field and a platoon role seems likely if he slumps

 

Encyclopedia Brown

Footballguy
Sleeper: Nick Pivetta with 15 wins and 200 K's.

Breakout: Paul Goldschmidt finishes in the major league top five in each of the Triple Crown categories.

Bust: Trevor Bauer. Big mouth, bad attitude finally meets karma.

 

MAC_32

Footballguy
I'm not drafting Charlie Blackmon anywhere near his current rate, but there's only one bat in the first five rounds that isn't anywhere near my top 100 - Gleyber Torres.  So for bust, him. His SwStr of 14% is eye-opening and his swing/contact rates provide support. Hitting the ball hard and in the air is a good thing in that division, but pull-happy young guys always leave me concerned about slump potential. And his numbers in the last 4 months of 2018 indicate pitchers already adjusted: .247/.319/.423 w 15 HR and 5 SB, production that compares with Marcus Semien (ADP 225).  And most places project him to hit near the bottom third of the lineup.

I don't think he's the only early round bat priced at his upside, but I think his injury withstanding down side is substantially lower than anyone else in the early rounds. If I'm wrong about him then it'll be on someone else's team.  I'm not investing in that profile.  

 

wikkidpissah

Footballguy
I really like German Marquez this year.  Dude was mowing down guys end of last year
Agree. Filthy, swingbreaking stuff. As a Mountainwester, it breaks my heart to see the Ubaldo-type guys come up in Denver, cuz it seems like it's only a matter of time. Hope he has a nice reign, though, and he and JTaillon will be the anchors of my fantasy staffs this season

 

MAC_32

Footballguy
I'm a Philly homer but Arrieta will outperform his ADP.  He's going way too late in drafts.
Talk me into him.  He's on my stream against the Marlins list, but I'm not drafting any of those dudes.

He just went under the knife.  The BB's are now a trend - and it's supported by his o-swing.  The K's took another dive last year - and it's supported by his lack of swinging strikes/contact rates.  The HR's are a year away from being a trend - and it's probably a produce of the previous two problems.  And that cutter is now more than 3 years in the past.  

 

eoMMan

Footballguy
Talk me into him.  He's on my stream against the Marlins list, but I'm not drafting any of those dudes.

He just went under the knife.  The BB's are now a trend - and it's supported by his o-swing.  The K's took another dive last year - and it's supported by his lack of swinging strikes/contact rates.  The HR's are a year away from being a trend - and it's probably a produce of the previous two problems.  And that cutter is now more than 3 years in the past.  
I agree that his strikeouts took a dive last year but can we chalk some of that up to his knee?

He's showing no ill effects from his offseason surgery and is throwing well in spring training (threw three perfect innings on Sunday).

Assuming his health holds up all season, I think he's a lock for double digit wins and an ERA around 4.00.  His ERA of 3.96 last seasons was his highest since 2013.

The Phillies are a better team defensively (getting Hoskins out of the outfield and back to first helps) and Arrieta will definitely have better run support this year.

CBS has his ADP at pick 158 and him as the 61st ranked SP.  I think he's pretty much guaranteed to be a top 50 SP with potential for more if he gets his K's back up.

 

Gally

Footballguy
What are people's thoughts on Tyler Glasnow and his breakout possibility?  I just acquired him in a dynasty league and have extremely high expectations moving forward. 

 

eoMMan

Footballguy
Gally said:
What are people's thoughts on Tyler Glasnow and his breakout possibility?  I just acquired him in a dynasty league and have extremely high expectations moving forward. 
He's got high breakout potential but has looked rough this spring.  On of his biggest assets, imo, is his duel RP/SP eligibility.

 

Gally

Footballguy
He's got high breakout potential but has looked rough this spring.  On of his biggest assets, imo, is his duel RP/SP eligibility.
I don't put a lot of stock into spring outings for pitchers because many times they are working on one particular aspect of their arsenal and aren't necessarily trying to get batters out.  It can artificially inflate some of their outings because the batters can zero in on certain things or they aren't up to game speed yet.

I think he is working on a new windup for deception purposes and that is where is trouble has been happening.  I liked what he did once he moved to the Rays and into a starting rotation spot at the end of last year.  He wasn't stretched out for starting because Pitt used him as a RP for most of the year but he had high K's numbers.  I am hoping that continues. 

 

Notorious T.R.E.

Showdown!™ Administrator
I don't put a lot of stock into spring outings for pitchers because many times they are working on one particular aspect of their arsenal and aren't necessarily trying to get batters out.  It can artificially inflate some of their outings because the batters can zero in on certain things or they aren't up to game speed yet.

I think he is working on a new windup for deception purposes and that is where is trouble has been happening.  I liked what he did once he moved to the Rays and into a starting rotation spot at the end of last year.  He wasn't stretched out for starting because Pitt used him as a RP for most of the year but he had high K's numbers.  I am hoping that continues. 
He seems to be a popular sleeper pick. I have to admit his inability to hit the strike zone this spring has scared me off.

 

fred_1_15301

Footballguy
He seems to be a popular sleeper pick. I have to admit his inability to hit the strike zone this spring has scared me off.
He's never been able to hit the strike zone.  In the minors, it didn't matter because his stuff was so filthy.  I'm not sure he'll ever fulfill that potential against major league hitters.  

 

eoMMan

Footballguy
Gio Gonzalez, SP (free agent)

He's still a good pitcher and could be had for your last pick in your draft.  He's been linked to some quality teams (Brewers, Yankees, etc.).  I can see him signing somewhere within the next month after teams evaluate injuries and their starting rotations.

 

guru_007

Footballguy
Couple guys I'd be looking at:

Franmil Reyes.  Yesterday's moon shot not withstanding, guy obviously has power.  Last year's cup of coffee with the Pads had him hit 16 hr's in 280 abs, with an 838 OPS, 130 OPS+, not bad for a 22 year old.  Opportunity may be an issue however as the Padres OF is pretty crowded - Wil Myers, Hunter Renfroe and Manuel Margot should get majority of the ABs'  Seems like the Padres have a bunch of corner OF's, but if he starts hot, they may throw Myers into center, and Margot may be the odd man out.  Frenchy Cordero also hanging around with some talent.  May be just a matter of who has the hot hand there.

Sean Newcomb.  Big lefty and just 25, should be a rotation starter for the improved Braves and get you 30 starts.  While his k rate isn't outstanding, it's still decent at about a k/ip and he lowered his walk rate nicely last year.  Another step forward this year and I think you could do worse than Newcomb as your 5th or 6th starter.  

 

TripItUp

Footballguy
Some guys that aren’t in many sleeper articles(like Glasnow for example) and are relatively off the radar...I only play points leagues so disregard if your league overvalues steals .   :)

Josh James - electric stuff, like syndegaard electric.  I reach on him in every league. 

Paul Dejong - SS with power in an improved lineup, possibly batting 3rd for the Cardinals.  

Eloy Jimenez - Again, better in points leagues, but a rookie that will get called up in April that has a good shot at top 20 OF production. ADP has been creeping up. 

Jose Peraza - a young SS that has good pop and hit for excellent average last year, has been hot in spring training

Roberto Osuna - RP that moves to Houston and looks to be their primary closer.  Has above average stuff and Houston seems to make every pitcher better.   

Ryan OHearn - 1b for the Royals that raked last year in a small sample.  He’s got the job to hisself this year.  More of a deeep sleeper as he was not highly regarded prior to last year’s callup. 

Josh bell - has always shown good pop, but entering prime years and has 35HR potential at a thin position. 

C. Paddack - one of the top young arms for the Padres and has been impressing in spring.  

 
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Smack Tripper

Footballguy
Some guys that aren’t in many sleeper articles(like Glasnow for example) and are relatively off the radar...I only play points leagues so disregard if your league overvalues steals .   :)

Josh James - electric stuff, like syndegaard electric.  I reach on him in every league. 

Paul Dejong - SS with power in an improved lineup, possibly batting 3rd for the Cardinals.  

Eloy Jimenez - Again, better in points leagues, but a rookie that will get called up in April that has a good shot at top 20 OF production. ADP has been creeping up. 

Jose Peraza - a young SS that has good pop and hit for excellent average last year, has been hot in spring training

Roberto Osuna - RP that moves to Houston and looks to be their primary closer.  Has above average stuff and Houston seems to make every pitcher better.   

Ryan OHearn - 1b for the Royals that raked last year in a small sample.  He’s got the job to hisself this year.  More of a deeep sleeper as he was not highly regarded prior to last year’s callup. 

Josh bell - has always shown good pop, but entering prime years and has 35HR potential at a thin position. 

C. Paddack - one of the top young arms for the Padres and has been impressing in spring.  
35 homers for bell?   I'm intrigued but that seems a massive leap, what makes you think this?

 

TripItUp

Footballguy
35 homers for bell?   I'm intrigued but that seems a massive leap, what makes you think this?
35 was the wrong number, 30 is probably more accurate in terms of upside given his total of 26 HR in 2017....baseball prospectus projects an increase in production and I tend to agree given his age and profile and anticipated increase in at bats.  He's going undrafted in many leagues so I think he's worth a late round flier, nothing more.

 

MAC_32

Footballguy
35 was the wrong number, 30 is probably more accurate in terms of upside given his total of 26 HR in 2017....baseball prospectus projects an increase in production and I tend to agree given his age and profile and anticipated increase in at bats.  He's going undrafted in many leagues so I think he's worth a late round flier, nothing more.
10 of his 26 home runs in 2017 were classified as 'just enough' in the year in which the baseball was (allegedly) juiced.

I don't disagree about him possibly turning a profit given his current pricetag, but given that info I don't think he has the upside you do.

 

MAC_32

Footballguy
Now that I got him in Pie - Greg Allen.  Probably just a watch list guy in shallower league's, but if you're behind in SB in a deep league take the shot on him.  He had an abysmal cameo that dragged down his overall numbers last year, but he was 310/379/405 w 15 SB in 45 games after his second call-up.  Given his minor leeg performance there may be legitimacy to his average (probably not 300+ though) and unlike the majors he's demonstrated the ability to take a walk too.  I don't think he's going to open the season leading off, but a hot start will open the door.  And given his OF competition he's going to be given a shot.  If Tyler Naquin or Jordan Luplow are playing instead of him it isn't because of what they're doing; it's because of what Allen's not doing.

 

MAC_32

Footballguy
I think I mentioned him before in a different thread, but shallower league's - Ramon Laureano.  Price tag is creeping up, but still a turning a profit.  I think he has a wide range of potential outcomes, but he can hit 30 bombs or steal 30 bases.  He's not going to do both, but 12/30 and 30/12 are both in play - as well as just about every combo in between.  He isn't going to hit 288 again, but he buys walks on a good offense playing a good CF.  He'll open the season around #7 in the order, but has the ability to hit himself higher.  At his current price point he'll turn a profit if he just hits for 60/15/60/15.  Barring injury his floor is higher than that.

 

MAC_32

Footballguy
If Tyler Skaggs' season ended before his groin injury this was his final line - 19 G, 8 W, 2.62 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9.41 K/9, 2.54 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9, 47% GB rate.  On pace with an arm like Thor, but more than 200 picks cheaper.

 

MAC_32

Footballguy
One more for the cheap speed crowd, if in a jam at MI - I get the sense the Mess are going to bury him in the bottom third of the lineup, but maybe with Lowrie's injury Amed Rosario will get a shot leading off in April.  Once they stopped screwing around with him last year and just let him go he hit 284/318/413 w 15 SB and 5 HR across the final two months in his trial at lead off.  There's not much reason to believe he'll start walking more, but if he hits like that then he can be justified a premium spot in the order.  

The lineup doesn't appear dangerous on first glance, but put him with an 85/10/50/30/320 line at the top then slide everyone down and it's formidable.  Especially after Alonso gets called up and Lowrie comes back.

 

KarmaPolice

Footballguy
As for Ps, Nola is going early, but the other Phillies pitchers are pretty cheap.   Pivetta is getting a lot of buzz on podcasts and articles I read, but I also like Eflin towards the end of drafts too. 

Seems like in the drafts I have been doing lately, I have been taking 1 maybe 2 Ps in my top 15-20, and then gobbling up guys like Pivetta, Eflin, Bieber, Weaver, Darvish, Skaggs, Glasnow, Musgrove.

As far as bats go, guys I have been eyeing later in drafts have been Kepler, Bradley JR, Schoop, D.Santana, Winker, F.Reyes.   

 

Doctor Detroit

Please remove your headgear
KarmaPolice said:
As for Ps, Nola is going early, but the other Phillies pitchers are pretty cheap.   Pivetta is getting a lot of buzz on podcasts and articles I read, but I also like Eflin towards the end of drafts too. 

Seems like in the drafts I have been doing lately, I have been taking 1 maybe 2 Ps in my top 15-20, and then gobbling up guys like Pivetta, Eflin, Bieber, Weaver, Darvish, Skaggs, Glasnow, Musgrove.

As far as bats go, guys I have been eyeing later in drafts have been Kepler, Bradley JR, Schoop, D.Santana, Winker, F.Reyes.   
I've bought a lot of shares of Pivetta and Skaggs. 

 

Doctor Detroit

Please remove your headgear
Now that I got him in Pie - Greg Allen.  Probably just a watch list guy in shallower league's, but if you're behind in SB in a deep league take the shot on him.  He had an abysmal cameo that dragged down his overall numbers last year, but he was 310/379/405 w 15 SB in 45 games after his second call-up.  Given his minor leeg performance there may be legitimacy to his average (probably not 300+ though) and unlike the majors he's demonstrated the ability to take a walk too.  I don't think he's going to open the season leading off, but a hot start will open the door.  And given his OF competition he's going to be given a shot.  If Tyler Naquin or Jordan Luplow are playing instead of him it isn't because of what they're doing; it's because of what Allen's not doing.
Agree, one of the cheapest source of SBs out there and he's gonna play 150 if healthy.  I think 30+ steals is possible and that's a really cheap 30 steals.  Guys like Allen who are really good fielders are gonna get a chance to play a lot, he's saving runs in the big picture.  I think he's draftable in all formats 10 teams and above, or he'll be a hot WW commodity. 

I think I mentioned him before in a different thread, but shallower league's - Ramon Laureano.  Price tag is creeping up, but still a turning a profit.  I think he has a wide range of potential outcomes, but he can hit 30 bombs or steal 30 bases.  He's not going to do both, but 12/30 and 30/12 are both in play - as well as just about every combo in between.  He isn't going to hit 288 again, but he buys walks on a good offense playing a good CF.  He'll open the season around #7 in the order, but has the ability to hit himself higher.  At his current price point he'll turn a profit if he just hits for 60/15/60/15.  Barring injury his floor is higher than that.
Disagree, I think his ceiling is 15/15 and he probably will be worse.  I can see the playing time drying up for a new A's jelly of the month.  For the amount he strikes out his BABIP is ridiculously high, completely unsustainable.  I like him as a 4th OF in deep roto, but he could also crash and burn. Neither Steamer or ZIPS thinks much of him, in avg leagues he's likely to disappoint.  I think he's a pretty good real-life baseball player, fantasy not so much. 

If Tyler Skaggs' season ended before his groin injury this was his final line - 19 G, 8 W, 2.62 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 9.41 K/9, 2.54 BB/9, 0.65 HR/9, 47% GB rate.  On pace with an arm like Thor, but more than 200 picks cheaper.
I'm a huge Skaggs fan, I don't think he has a Thor ceiling but that is a very interesting comparison.  I think his upside is probably a #3 fantasy pitcher, but there is a lot to like at his current price.  He's gonna return a profit if he pitches 150 innings. 

 

Doctor Detroit

Please remove your headgear
Some guys that aren’t in many sleeper articles(like Glasnow for example) and are relatively off the radar...I only play points leagues so disregard if your league overvalues steals .   :)

Josh James - electric stuff, like syndegaard electric.  I reach on him in every league. 

Paul Dejong - SS with power in an improved lineup, possibly batting 3rd for the Cardinals.  

Eloy Jimenez - Again, better in points leagues, but a rookie that will get called up in April that has a good shot at top 20 OF production. ADP has been creeping up. 

Jose Peraza - a young SS that has good pop and hit for excellent average last year, has been hot in spring training

Roberto Osuna - RP that moves to Houston and looks to be their primary closer.  Has above average stuff and Houston seems to make every pitcher better.   

Ryan OHearn - 1b for the Royals that raked last year in a small sample.  He’s got the job to hisself this year.  More of a deeep sleeper as he was not highly regarded prior to last year’s callup. 

Josh bell - has always shown good pop, but entering prime years and has 35HR potential at a thin position. 

C. Paddack - one of the top young arms for the Padres and has been impressing in spring. 
Pretty good list here. 

I bought some Josha James shares, but hate zygote pitchers.  Soooo.....

Dejong is undervalued, Peraza is a cheap steals source, Osuna could be the #1 saves guy, and Paddack is a guy I barely miss getting in every league.

Bell hits the ball hard but he seems like black Brandon Belt, NTTATWWT.  Not sure about O'Hearn, but he's cheap so cool.

Eloy is my guy.  Took him 4th overall in a deep keeper in 2017 and I was at his first AA game in Birmingham.  He's the next Mike/Giancarlo Stanton IMO, but with a higher average.  He's a massive man, his hard hit return will be elite right out of the gate, and he'll stick in RF for awhile.  Given how much I hate the White Sox, take this for what it's worth.  I've never seen Vlad Jr in person, but I doubt he's gonna be better than Eloy.  This is a 3rd round pick next year, and 1st or 2nd round for many years to come.  He's can't-miss more than probably any minor leaguer I've ever seen (Fernando Tatis Jr is my second love), and I tend to see a lot of those games.  :2cents:

 

Smack Tripper

Footballguy
I think I mentioned him before in a different thread, but shallower league's - Ramon Laureano.  Price tag is creeping up, but still a turning a profit.  I think he has a wide range of potential outcomes, but he can hit 30 bombs or steal 30 bases.  He's not going to do both, but 12/30 and 30/12 are both in play - as well as just about every combo in between.  He isn't going to hit 288 again, but he buys walks on a good offense playing a good CF.  He'll open the season around #7 in the order, but has the ability to hit himself higher.  At his current price point he'll turn a profit if he just hits for 60/15/60/15.  Barring injury his floor is higher than that.
Along these lines, what do you guys think of teoscar?

 

MAC_32

Footballguy
Along these lines, what do you guys think of teoscar?
I think Toronto is going to platoon him and McKinney to start the year, so my interest is more of the in-season waiver variety than dollar derby target.  He probably needs to get the K's under control before the Jays give him more PT.

 

Encyclopedia Brown

Footballguy
Yu Darvish has been hitting 95 MPH, consistently and easily. He also passes the eye test. He looks calm, focused and relaxed out on the mound.

I am buying in this year.

 

guru_007

Footballguy
Yu Darvish has been hitting 95 MPH, consistently and easily. He also passes the eye test. He looks calm, focused and relaxed out on the mound.

I am buying in this year.
I'm gonna be honest, I'm buying a lot of Cubs this year.  I have multiple shares of Darvish and Quintana - and also own some Bryant, Rizzo and Hendricks.  This team is coming off a down year and all of the sudden they're bums?  Darvish just 32, Hendricks 29 and Quintana 30 - they are going real late in drafts and I'm able to pickup on the cheap.

Rizzo and Bryant should still be in their primes ffs.  

I don't like paying for last year's stats, so I have no Baez, I don't usually take pitchers over 35 so I'll let others grab Hamels and Lester who both seem to be going much higher in drafts than the three other starters :shrug:   And I kinda like Ian Happ but he is an average drain and kind of a man without a position so he's more valuable in daily lineup leagues than weekly, imo.  

 

cosjobs

Footballguy
I'm gonna be honest, I'm buying a lot of Cubs this year.  I have multiple shares of Darvish and Quintana - and also own some Bryant, Rizzo and Hendricks.  This team is coming off a down year and all of the sudden they're bums?  Darvish just 32, Hendricks 29 and Quintana 30 - they are going real late in drafts and I'm able to pickup on the cheap.

Rizzo and Bryant should still be in their primes ffs.  

I don't like paying for last year's stats, so I have no Baez, I don't usually take pitchers over 35 so I'll let others grab Hamels and Lester who both seem to be going much higher in drafts than the three other starters :shrug:   And I kinda like Ian Happ but he is an average drain and kind of a man without a position so he's more valuable in daily lineup leagues than weekly, imo.  
I know we can't predict injuries, but Yu has pitched over 145 innings ONCE since 2013. 

 

Smack Tripper

Footballguy
35 was the wrong number, 30 is probably more accurate in terms of upside given his total of 26 HR in 2017....baseball prospectus projects an increase in production and I tend to agree given his age and profile and anticipated increase in at bats.  He's going undrafted in many leagues so I think he's worth a late round flier, nothing more.
I didn’t mean to break balls I misread his line I thought he was coming off 19 hr I didn’t know he hit 26 last year 👍

 

Eephus

Footballguy
What’s tatis’ Lower profile like?  15 homer guy or more?
Way moar
Long term sure but not this year.  I'm definitely not as high on Tatis in redrafts as some other guy in every league.  He's never appeared above AA and Petco is a lot tougher environment than the Texas league.  His strikeouts are already high and will increase against big league pitching.  It remains to be seen if he's a major league base stealer; his fantasy value goes up if he can reach 15-20 SBs.

 

MAC_32

Footballguy
Long term sure but not this year.  I'm definitely not as high on Tatis in redrafts as some other guy in every league.  He's never appeared above AA and Petco is a lot tougher environment than the Texas league.  His strikeouts are already high and will increase against big league pitching.  It remains to be seen if he's a major league base stealer; his fantasy value goes up if he can reach 15-20 SBs.
Yeah, I think he needs to display major gains quickly to get anything more than cameo appearances before late summer. 

 

wikkidpissah

Footballguy
I would put Tatis on a par with Xander Bogaerts. There's 30 HR in that bat if he is taught or decides to turn on the ball, but Xander's in his walk yr and hasn't got there yet. Jr will come up when Machado needs the table set, so power won't be his focus this season

 
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Northern Voice

Footballguy
I think Toronto is going to platoon him and McKinney to start the year, so my interest is more of the in-season waiver variety than dollar derby target.  He probably needs to get the K's under control before the Jays give him more PT.
FWIW, I had assumed Grichuk would get 500+ PAs finally this year but there's been word that it will be a Grichuk/McKinney platoon which would be good news for Teoscar.

Grichuk still seems like the best of the three to me.

 

Northern Voice

Footballguy
Agree, one of the cheapest source of SBs out there and he's gonna play 150 if healthy.  I think 30+ steals is possible and that's a really cheap 30 steals.  Guys like Allen who are really good fielders are gonna get a chance to play a lot, he's saving runs in the big picture.  I think he's draftable in all formats 10 teams and above, or he'll be a hot WW commodity. 

Disagree, I think his ceiling is 15/15 and he probably will be worse.  I can see the playing time drying up for a new A's jelly of the month.  For the amount he strikes out his BABIP is ridiculously high, completely unsustainable.  I like him as a 4th OF in deep roto, but he could also crash and burn. Neither Steamer or ZIPS thinks much of him, in avg leagues he's likely to disappoint.  I think he's a pretty good real-life baseball player, fantasy not so much. 
Laureano is really really good defensively, I think he gets his playing time for that reason alone. I don't see how he would have 30 HR power in his profile but can see 15 HR and 20-30 SB pretty easily. Even zips/steamer etc being down on him all give him at least 15 HR and SB and I really don't think playing time will be an issue with his fielding ability.

 

Northern Voice

Footballguy
I'm sure every fan has questions about the closer they see most often but I'm selling Osuna. Ryan Pressly is a better arm IMO.

 

MAC_32

Footballguy
Laureano is really really good defensively, I think he gets his playing time for that reason alone. I don't see how he would have 30 HR power in his profile but can see 15 HR and 20-30 SB pretty easily. Even zips/steamer etc being down on him all give him at least 15 HR and SB and I really don't think playing time will be an issue with his fielding ability.
Pretty much, those projection systems are quite conservative and even they have him turning a profit.  I keep just missing him, so perhaps I'm not as high on him relative to others though.

 

Northern Voice

Footballguy
Few teams punt their high-priced reliever before they #### up.
I'm sure Osuna will get tons of chances, I just don't think he's as good as his reputation and over long term don't think he'll be as safe as is assumed. He's obviously the closer starting the year, I just wouldn't draft him as a top 5 RP.

His k/9 fell all the way to 7.58 last year from 11.67 the year before and with the off field stuff his leash may be shorter

 
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