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Snowmageddon 2022 (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter =Smackdown=
- Start date
Snow is a few hours later arriving than originally forecast imo. We were supposed to get freezing rain/snow starting late yesterday afternoon, but it did not get here until late last night. Still snowing this AM until about 1, when we were originally supposed to be done by early morning.
Still less than expected, but enough to make today snow day #12, and a decent chance it won't be cleared up enough by tomorrow. Not bad for a school system that "planned" for 2 snow days.
Still less than expected, but enough to make today snow day #12, and a decent chance it won't be cleared up enough by tomorrow. Not bad for a school system that "planned" for 2 snow days.
The Hank
Footballguy
avoiding injuries
Footballguy
3-4 here so far. Supposed to come down until about noon and then we could see a sunset.
Apple Jack
Footballguy
4-5 here. 1.5 liters of wine last night and about to go shovel. I'd like to kick mother nature in the uterus. Again.
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
WARNING: this is just for the clowns who enjoy the Severe NJ Weather/ Weatherboy Facebook Feud...
I don't know what kind of kool-aid severe NJ weather slings but good god these yentas that follow him defend him til the end... guy had a great early run of predictions but has whiffed on the last 2-3 storms. Not a big deal, that's weather, but he was big on the "I'M TELLING YOU WHAT YOU'LL HEAR FROM THE BIG WEATHER GUYS TOMORROW BRO" stuff. He clung to the heavy snow for NJ prediction and I sit here without a flake.
Here's a sample comment from his page (I didn't read much into it but this cracked me up
Why do people feel the need to point out in capital and bold that the forecast wrong???? It wasn't wrong it just shifted there is still a major storm in NJ or do you people think NJ only consists only of your town. I have never seen so many grumpy, rude, obnoxious adults in my life....get over it!!!!!
so the forecaster was right, the earth was wrong, thanks honey
I don't know what kind of kool-aid severe NJ weather slings but good god these yentas that follow him defend him til the end... guy had a great early run of predictions but has whiffed on the last 2-3 storms. Not a big deal, that's weather, but he was big on the "I'M TELLING YOU WHAT YOU'LL HEAR FROM THE BIG WEATHER GUYS TOMORROW BRO" stuff. He clung to the heavy snow for NJ prediction and I sit here without a flake.
Here's a sample comment from his page (I didn't read much into it but this cracked me up
Why do people feel the need to point out in capital and bold that the forecast wrong???? It wasn't wrong it just shifted there is still a major storm in NJ or do you people think NJ only consists only of your town. I have never seen so many grumpy, rude, obnoxious adults in my life....get over it!!!!!
so the forecaster was right, the earth was wrong, thanks honey
Tom Servo
Nittany Beavers
I lived there for 3 years. Beautiful town.Leesburg, VA - 5-6" here. May get several more; we are due for snow into the middle afternoon. Due for another storm later this week. Looks like they will cancel school until April.
sho nuff
Footballguy
I think the rest of the Nashville area and just north of here in Clarksville got it bad.
Here, just east of the Airport...its not too bad around my house. Roads seem a bit slick, but its not like a sheet of anything...just a dusting of snow over a tiny bit of ice. Im sure its slick in places... if I actually got out there. But, watching the news and twitter, seems every else around town got it much worse.
Here, just east of the Airport...its not too bad around my house. Roads seem a bit slick, but its not like a sheet of anything...just a dusting of snow over a tiny bit of ice. Im sure its slick in places... if I actually got out there. But, watching the news and twitter, seems every else around town got it much worse.
belljr
Footballguy
um got about 4 inchesSmack Tripper said:WARNING: this is just for the clowns who enjoy the Severe NJ Weather/ Weatherboy Facebook Feud...
I don't know what kind of kool-aid severe NJ weather slings but good god these yentas that follow him defend him til the end... guy had a great early run of predictions but has whiffed on the last 2-3 storms. Not a big deal, that's weather, but he was big on the "I'M TELLING YOU WHAT YOU'LL HEAR FROM THE BIG WEATHER GUYS TOMORROW BRO" stuff. He clung to the heavy snow for NJ prediction and I sit here without a flake.
Here's a sample comment from his page (I didn't read much into it but this cracked me up
Why do people feel the need to point out in capital and bold that the forecast wrong???? It wasn't wrong it just shifted there is still a major storm in NJ or do you people think NJ only consists only of your town. I have never seen so many grumpy, rude, obnoxious adults in my life....get over it!!!!!
flapgreen
Footballguy
Pretty rough in Gallatin but much worse in Bowling Green, where some of my family lives.
James Daulton
Footballguy
You were right, we didn't even get 6 inches here in Catonsville (just west of Baltimore).The_Man said:
Good call!
sho nuff
Footballguy
Road outside my house is almost dry.
My driveway was a bit slicker than the road.
Barely a coating of ice on the leafs of the shrubs out front.
Going to venture out in a little bit to see how bad things are now and if it looks like it will be bad again tomorrow.
Smack Tripper
Footballguy
Where?um got about 4 inchesSmack Tripper said:WARNING: this is just for the clowns who enjoy the Severe NJ Weather/ Weatherboy Facebook Feud...
I don't know what kind of kool-aid severe NJ weather slings but good god these yentas that follow him defend him til the end... guy had a great early run of predictions but has whiffed on the last 2-3 storms. Not a big deal, that's weather, but he was big on the "I'M TELLING YOU WHAT YOU'LL HEAR FROM THE BIG WEATHER GUYS TOMORROW BRO" stuff. He clung to the heavy snow for NJ prediction and I sit here without a flake.
Here's a sample comment from his page (I didn't read much into it but this cracked me up
Why do people feel the need to point out in capital and bold that the forecast wrong???? It wasn't wrong it just shifted there is still a major storm in NJ or do you people think NJ only consists only of your town. I have never seen so many grumpy, rude, obnoxious adults in my life....get over it!!!!!
Fat Nick
Footballguy
His info says SNJ = Southern New Jersey. The snowfall line looks like it was just south of Trenton, so if he's further south than that, I could easily see 4". I'd imagine some of the southern-most areas down inland of Cape May probably got a decent amount of snow.Where?um got about 4 inches
I sometimes forget how long of a state NJ actually is. North-South it's probably as "tall" as Pennsylvania. As an NJ transplant, my observation is that I find many of the folks in the northern half of the state are almost unaware that the southern half exists.
belljr
Footballguy
NJ. My gma got 6 in Gloucester countyWhere?um got about 4 inchesSmack Tripper said:WARNING: this is just for the clowns who enjoy the Severe NJ Weather/ Weatherboy Facebook Feud...
I don't know what kind of kool-aid severe NJ weather slings but good god these yentas that follow him defend him til the end... guy had a great early run of predictions but has whiffed on the last 2-3 storms. Not a big deal, that's weather, but he was big on the "I'M TELLING YOU WHAT YOU'LL HEAR FROM THE BIG WEATHER GUYS TOMORROW BRO" stuff. He clung to the heavy snow for NJ prediction and I sit here without a flake.
Here's a sample comment from his page (I didn't read much into it but this cracked me up
Why do people feel the need to point out in capital and bold that the forecast wrong???? It wasn't wrong it just shifted there is still a major storm in NJ or do you people think NJ only consists only of your town. I have never seen so many grumpy, rude, obnoxious adults in my life....get over it!!!!!
Apple Jack
Footballguy
2:57 - procrastination of shovel job ongoing. send chinese food, stat.
belljr
Footballguy
yep we are really 2 statesHis info says SNJ = Southern New Jersey. The snowfall line looks like it was just south of Trenton, so if he's further south than that, I could easily see 4". I'd imagine some of the southern-most areas down inland of Cape May probably got a decent amount of snow.Where?um got about 4 inches
I sometimes forget how long of a state NJ actually is. North-South it's probably as "tall" as Pennsylvania. As an NJ transplant, my observation is that I find many of the folks in the northern half of the state are almost unaware that the southern half exists.
I am 20 minutes east of phillySmack Tripper
Footballguy
Well I'm in Essex. There was nothing. Which is fine! But most "name" forecasters downgraded on Saturday from the 8-12 inch range to 3-6 and some 2-4. He mocked them in a post he appears to have pulled saying he expected heavy nnj snow still. He then settled on 2-4 and we got nothing. Again, it's fine and forecasting is fickle. This tool takes it personally, deleting comments of those that would question.NJ. My gma got 6 in Gloucester countyWhere?um got about 4 inchesSmack Tripper said:WARNING: this is just for the clowns who enjoy the Severe NJ Weather/ Weatherboy Facebook Feud...
I don't know what kind of kool-aid severe NJ weather slings but good god these yentas that follow him defend him til the end... guy had a great early run of predictions but has whiffed on the last 2-3 storms. Not a big deal, that's weather, but he was big on the "I'M TELLING YOU WHAT YOU'LL HEAR FROM THE BIG WEATHER GUYS TOMORROW BRO" stuff. He clung to the heavy snow for NJ prediction and I sit here without a flake.
Here's a sample comment from his page (I didn't read much into it but this cracked me up
Why do people feel the need to point out in capital and bold that the forecast wrong???? It wasn't wrong it just shifted there is still a major storm in NJ or do you people think NJ only consists only of your town. I have never seen so many grumpy, rude, obnoxious adults in my life....get over it!!!!!
Again, not earth moving but good for a chuckle. From my perspective
1. Who knew there was so many arm chair meteorologists?
2. Who knew they fight with each other?
belljr
Footballguy
i have no clue about the weather war nerds...was just saying I still got snowWell I'm in Essex. There was nothing. Which is fine! But most "name" forecasters downgraded on Saturday from the 8-12 inch range to 3-6 and some 2-4. He mocked them in a post he appears to have pulled saying he expected heavy nnj snow still. He then settled on 2-4 and we got nothing. Again, it's fine and forecasting is fickle. This tool takes it personally, deleting comments of those that would question. Again, not earth moving but good for a chuckle. From my perspectiveNJ. My gma got 6 in Gloucester countyWhere?um got about 4 inchesSmack Tripper said:WARNING: this is just for the clowns who enjoy the Severe NJ Weather/ Weatherboy Facebook Feud...
I don't know what kind of kool-aid severe NJ weather slings but good god these yentas that follow him defend him til the end... guy had a great early run of predictions but has whiffed on the last 2-3 storms. Not a big deal, that's weather, but he was big on the "I'M TELLING YOU WHAT YOU'LL HEAR FROM THE BIG WEATHER GUYS TOMORROW BRO" stuff. He clung to the heavy snow for NJ prediction and I sit here without a flake.
Here's a sample comment from his page (I didn't read much into it but this cracked me up
Why do people feel the need to point out in capital and bold that the forecast wrong???? It wasn't wrong it just shifted there is still a major storm in NJ or do you people think NJ only consists only of your town. I have never seen so many grumpy, rude, obnoxious adults in my life....get over it!!!!!
1. Who knew there was so many arm chair meteorologists?
2. Who knew they fight with each other?
luckily not the 6 to 10Apple Jack
Footballguy
Shovel status: COMPLETE
That was wicked brutal. There is literally a sheet of ice under the snow, probably 1/8". Our street is ice end to end.
That was wicked brutal. There is literally a sheet of ice under the snow, probably 1/8". Our street is ice end to end.
Apple Jack
Footballguy
Pretty much anybody who skis is inherently a winter weather nerd. Especially if you grew up skiing in the mid-Atlantic where the snow/rain line bounces around like an untethered firehose.
Billy Bats
Footballguy
This is what you get when you have all day news coverage for 4" of snow.
http://twitpic.com/dx8vzs?fb_action_ids=10203276172851092&fb_action_types=og.likes&fb_source=other_multiline&action_object_map=[603563693058317]&action_type_map=[%22og.likes%22]&action_ref_map=[]
http://twitpic.com/dx8vzs?fb_action_ids=10203276172851092&fb_action_types=og.likes&fb_source=other_multiline&action_object_map=[603563693058317]&action_type_map=[%22og.likes%22]&action_ref_map=[]
Koya
Footballguy
Barely a dusting on Long Island.
In this the winter of the storm my wife is now utilizing the "penis" method of snow measurement. When they were predicting 6-8 inches for this current storm she said oh, that's like a penis worth of snow. 4-6 is that belonging to a certain far eastern group of people while 8-10 ... You get it.
This time, not even a tip.
In this the winter of the storm my wife is now utilizing the "penis" method of snow measurement. When they were predicting 6-8 inches for this current storm she said oh, that's like a penis worth of snow. 4-6 is that belonging to a certain far eastern group of people while 8-10 ... You get it.
This time, not even a tip.
TheIronSheik
SUPER ELITE UPPER TIER
So in case anyone was wondering what happened with this storm, let me explain a little.
As I was saying last week, the models had all set up to show a stationary front that stretched across most of the country, centered over the Mason Dixon Line on the East Coast. This is a rare (not extremely rare, but rare) occurrence in Winter. What the models saw was very warm and moist air from the south running over very cold Arctic air from the north. This was the reason that every model, and therefore every forecaster had their call as it was.
With about 24 hours left before the storm, the models began to show that the cold Polar Vortex was much stronger than anticipated. So much stronger, that when the new models ran, they had the storm so much further south than previous runs that forecasters saw them as wrong. Such a large shift seemed ridiculous. So to hedge their bets, they began to lower snowfall totals north and up them south.
The problem was that the stationary front never happened. The Polar Vortex was so much stronger and colder that the front became a cold front and moved through the mid-Atlantic south. With less than 12 hours until the storm, forecasters (who were still not convinced the models were correct) did not want to take the chance of saying snow chances in PA/NJ/NY area were slim to none. They erred on the side of caution. As we all now know, the models were right and most of us got nothing.
I hear a lot of people in this area saying that the weather guys got it wrong and that it was a bust, but in reality, they got it right, except for the exact location. But as I even pointed out on Friday, any type of shift could really change who gets what. I had even told one poster that DC could end up seeing all snow even though they were calling for rain and sleet.
As for the long range forecast, the Friday storm signal has moved off shore on three of the four models. Only one still has a possible major storm hitting the NE, but the chances seem to be fading with each model run. It is interesting to note that the one model that has the storm still hitting is the one that has been the most reliable all season.
After that, there was another storm signal for the 13/14, but that, too, is looking less and less likely. After that, a warm up is expected for the second half of the month.
So if all holds true (and it probably won't), unless we get a rare April storm, the PA/NJ/NY area may be done with snow for this season.
As I was saying last week, the models had all set up to show a stationary front that stretched across most of the country, centered over the Mason Dixon Line on the East Coast. This is a rare (not extremely rare, but rare) occurrence in Winter. What the models saw was very warm and moist air from the south running over very cold Arctic air from the north. This was the reason that every model, and therefore every forecaster had their call as it was.
With about 24 hours left before the storm, the models began to show that the cold Polar Vortex was much stronger than anticipated. So much stronger, that when the new models ran, they had the storm so much further south than previous runs that forecasters saw them as wrong. Such a large shift seemed ridiculous. So to hedge their bets, they began to lower snowfall totals north and up them south.
The problem was that the stationary front never happened. The Polar Vortex was so much stronger and colder that the front became a cold front and moved through the mid-Atlantic south. With less than 12 hours until the storm, forecasters (who were still not convinced the models were correct) did not want to take the chance of saying snow chances in PA/NJ/NY area were slim to none. They erred on the side of caution. As we all now know, the models were right and most of us got nothing.
I hear a lot of people in this area saying that the weather guys got it wrong and that it was a bust, but in reality, they got it right, except for the exact location. But as I even pointed out on Friday, any type of shift could really change who gets what. I had even told one poster that DC could end up seeing all snow even though they were calling for rain and sleet.
As for the long range forecast, the Friday storm signal has moved off shore on three of the four models. Only one still has a possible major storm hitting the NE, but the chances seem to be fading with each model run. It is interesting to note that the one model that has the storm still hitting is the one that has been the most reliable all season.
After that, there was another storm signal for the 13/14, but that, too, is looking less and less likely. After that, a warm up is expected for the second half of the month.
So if all holds true (and it probably won't), unless we get a rare April storm, the PA/NJ/NY area may be done with snow for this season.
Swing 51
Footballguy
This is almost always the case in the DC area. They have a tough time with estimates or even deciding on rain/sleet/snow. Its why they usually just say areas west and north of the city (DC) will get hit harder than those south and east.
The Hank
Footballguy
TheIronSheik
SUPER ELITE UPPER TIER
This happens in every city. DC is not special. The reason for this is that cities are warmer than outlying areas.
TheIronSheik
SUPER ELITE UPPER TIER
So the threat for Friday is officially done. The low will move out to see and no phasing will take place as a clipper moves through the east with only flurries possible.
As for the next storm signal, that one is a little more interesting. It's still 9 days out, so take all of this with a grain of salt. The way it usually works is that if there is no storm signal, the chances of snow are near 0%. If there is a storm signal, the chances are probably more around the 30% range.
So here's what's happening. Of the 4 major models, 3 of them are setting up some type of storm for the 12th to 14th range. And while usually 3 out of 4 is a very strong indication, even at 9 days out, they all have a different set up than each other. It's kind of strange. The GFS and the Canadian models are showing a moderate storm (think 6 inches), while the Euro is showing a huge storm.
Oddly enough, the Blizzard of '93 hit on this same time frame, so don't be surprised to start seeing news programs talking about the "similarities" to this possible storm. Plenty of time to hype this storm.
Again, come end of next week, it could be sunny and warm. These models are no guarantee. But just thought I'd let you guys know that something could be brewing.
As for the next storm signal, that one is a little more interesting. It's still 9 days out, so take all of this with a grain of salt. The way it usually works is that if there is no storm signal, the chances of snow are near 0%. If there is a storm signal, the chances are probably more around the 30% range.
So here's what's happening. Of the 4 major models, 3 of them are setting up some type of storm for the 12th to 14th range. And while usually 3 out of 4 is a very strong indication, even at 9 days out, they all have a different set up than each other. It's kind of strange. The GFS and the Canadian models are showing a moderate storm (think 6 inches), while the Euro is showing a huge storm.
Oddly enough, the Blizzard of '93 hit on this same time frame, so don't be surprised to start seeing news programs talking about the "similarities" to this possible storm. Plenty of time to hype this storm.
Again, come end of next week, it could be sunny and warm. These models are no guarantee. But just thought I'd let you guys know that something could be brewing.
TheIronSheik
SUPER ELITE UPPER TIER
So the Canadian model run still wants to see something happen for Friday, but it's the only model that thinks so. It has southern Jersey as it's only real target.
But the latest Euro run looks to still want to support a possible big storm for late end of week next week.
But the latest Euro run looks to still want to support a possible big storm for late end of week next week.
Leeroy Jenkins
Footballguy
TheIronSheik
SUPER ELITE UPPER TIER
The latest model runs still have a potential storm for Wednesday, next week. But the models are still all over the place on the actual setup.
TheIronSheik
SUPER ELITE UPPER TIER
Up until this morning, there was one final setup for a big storm early next week. But it appears that the models have given up on that idea as of the early morning runs. With the long range models showing a temperature moderation back to normal temps, it appears that we may be done for snowfall in the Mid Atlantic for the season, barring any freak April storms.
glock
"Don't grumble, give a whistle!"
Otis
Footballguy
TheIronSheik
SUPER ELITE UPPER TIER
Not happening. That was the storm I was talking about next week. It's no longer showing up on the models as of yesterday morning.
The_Man
Footballguy
It's back...
Although I'm pretty skeptical of mid-March storm forecasts, 5 days out
Koya
Footballguy
There's a huge storm coming, but it will be north of NYC for the most part. Upstate and Northern NE could get slammed from what I understand. We hit almost 60 today, already down ten or more degrees with rain starting, and by the middle of the night it will be about 20, maybe lower. In NYC / Long Island we might get an inch or so after all the rain, but then it will get back into the 40's Friday and mid 50's saturday.
Damn Smarch weather.
TheIronSheik
SUPER ELITE UPPER TIER
You're right. My bad. I've been sick this past week and haven't really been watching the models too much. In fact, this post was the only post I made yesterday. Luckily I made it count by being wrong.
So looking at the current model runs, of the 4 major models, 2 of them have nothing happening Monday. These 2 models have not wavered, as they have never seen anything. Then one model has been flip flopping with each run, from big storm to no storm. And finally, the Canadian model is the one that, starting yesterday, began to slowly bring back the idea of the huge storm for the Mid Atlantic. The Canadian model runs showed a large swath of 1 to 2 feet across the Mid Atlantic. Those aren't actual snowfall predictions, but rather an indication of what models could see. (Rarely do long range model runs and actual snowfall totals match up.)
As you said, 5 days out is still a long way, but going into today's runs, we should start to get a better idea. Normally, when only one model see something, the confidence in a storm aren't that high. But, things that are working in it's favor are that other models were seeing this storm a few days ago, so some wavering back and forth could be a good sign for storm development.
I believe that by tonight or tomorrow morning, we'll probably no one way or another.
ClownCausedChaos2
Footballguy
Stick to predicting sandstorms. Lol. Blouses.You're right. My bad. I've been sick this past week and haven't really been watching the models too much. In fact, this post was the only post I made yesterday. Luckily I made it count by being wrong.
As you said, 5 days out is still a long way, but going into today's runs, we should start to get a better idea. Normally, when only one model see something, the confidence in a storm aren't that high. But, things that are working in it's favor are that other models were seeing this storm a few days ago, so some wavering back and forth could be a good sign for storm development.
I believe that by tonight or tomorrow morning, we'll probably no one way or another.
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