What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

This is a sample guest message. Register a free account today to become a member! Once signed in, you'll be able to participate on this site by adding your own topics and posts, as well as connect with other members through your own private inbox!

Snowmageddon 2022 (2 Viewers)

TheIronSheik said:
Mr. Ected said:
NBC4 station in DC is predicting this for snowfall in DC area.

The weatherman's full forecast is here...
Click to expand...
Those seem low. I think more like 30 to 35 inches in the DC area.

Again, I'm no meteorologist so it's hard to argue with them. :shrug:
Click to expand...
So edumacate me here....How do the make these kinds of long-term, winter-long predictions?

I get the daily stuff...you see fronts coming, look at temps, pressures, etc...but these long-term things are clearly the result of some kind of macro climate models...what drives these?

 
Fat Nick said:
TheIronSheik said:
Mr. Ected said:
NBC4 station in DC is predicting this for snowfall in DC area.

The weatherman's full forecast is here...
Click to expand...
Those seem low. I think more like 30 to 35 inches in the DC area.

Again, I'm no meteorologist so it's hard to argue with them. :shrug:
Click to expand...
So edumacate me here....How do the make these kinds of long-term, winter-long predictions?

I get the daily stuff...you see fronts coming, look at temps, pressures, etc...but these long-term things are clearly the result of some kind of macro climate models...what drives these?
Click to expand...
There's a lot that goes into it. And honestly, it's easier to forecast long term patterns, than day to day patterns. They check things like Sea Surface Temperatures and snow cover, which lead to dips and kinks in the jet streams. By knowing where the oscillations will occur, they can see which areas are most likely to see warmth and which will see cold.

These guys put out outlooks that usually are around 50 to 100 pages explaining everything that they are looking at. They'll compare past years to current scenarios to find which years best line up, then see what happened in those years as a comparison. It's a HUGE amount of work they put in.

 
Looks like our first snow chance will be the beginning of next week. Might be nothing, might be too warm, but it's just nice to be seeing storm signals again.

 
Sheik,

With these abnormally high temperatures, we have yet to have any measurable snowfall in Buffalo. But that said, the lake has stayed unseasonably warm as well. My limited understanding of lake effect snow is that the larger the difference between air temperature and the lake temperature, the increased probability of a lake effect snow event. Lake Erie is currently hovering in the mid-high 40s just west of Buffalo.

Generally we have a few LES events in late November through Christmas with the shores of the lake eventually freezing and generally ending the large-scale LES events for the season.

I know most predictors I've seen have been indicating higher-than-usual temps through December. Are people anticipating a steep dropoff in overall temperatures later in December/January? Should we be worried about later LES events this year? If we're still in the mid-40s through much of December and then all of a sudden start hovering in the high teens/low 20s, it seems like it could be ripe for LES if the lake is still in the mid-high 30s.

TIA

 
Steve Tasker said:
Sheik,

With these abnormally high temperatures, we have yet to have any measurable snowfall in Buffalo. But that said, the lake has stayed unseasonably warm as well. My limited understanding of lake effect snow is that the larger the difference between air temperature and the lake temperature, the increased probability of a lake effect snow event. Lake Erie is currently hovering in the mid-high 40s just west of Buffalo.

Generally we have a few LES events in late November through Christmas with the shores of the lake eventually freezing and generally ending the large-scale LES events for the season.

I know most predictors I've seen have been indicating higher-than-usual temps through December. Are people anticipating a steep dropoff in overall temperatures later in December/January? Should we be worried about later LES events this year? If we're still in the mid-40s through much of December and then all of a sudden start hovering in the high teens/low 20s, it seems like it could be ripe for LES if the lake is still in the mid-high 30s.

TIA
Click to expand...
I'm not super familiar with LES. Temps look to stay around normal or slightly above,as a whole, for the month of December. But we will see cold shots, so the lakes should start cooling. Come January and February, the temps are expected to drop below average. If that is the case, I would think that the LES would just occur later in the season than normal. Again, I really don't know a lot when it comes to LES, but that would be my thoughts.

I've seen some news outlets talking about how warm this winter looks to be, and they are citing the warm start to the winter as evidence. But they are going to be in for a big shock. Some of the coldest winters on record occurred after very warm late falls/early winters. One other thing, when it comes to weather especially, is that people tend to have shoddy memories. I had a friend talking about how the temps were in the upper 50's the past week and that he couldn't remember the last time it was this warm this early into winter. Well, the problem there is a) it's not winter. And b) the average high temp for this time of year is mid 50's. So, yeah, it's slightly warmer, but it's nothing out of the ordinary. I don't mean to imply this is what you are doing by any means. Just trying to give insight into the weather thought process being talked about now.

I would expect the LES events to probably start to ratchet up soon.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Steve Tasker said:
Sheik,

With these abnormally high temperatures, we have yet to have any measurable snowfall in Buffalo. But that said, the lake has stayed unseasonably warm as well. My limited understanding of lake effect snow is that the larger the difference between air temperature and the lake temperature, the increased probability of a lake effect snow event. Lake Erie is currently hovering in the mid-high 40s just west of Buffalo.

Generally we have a few LES events in late November through Christmas with the shores of the lake eventually freezing and generally ending the large-scale LES events for the season.

I know most predictors I've seen have been indicating higher-than-usual temps through December. Are people anticipating a steep dropoff in overall temperatures later in December/January? Should we be worried about later LES events this year? If we're still in the mid-40s through much of December and then all of a sudden start hovering in the high teens/low 20s, it seems like it could be ripe for LES if the lake is still in the mid-high 30s.

TIA
Click to expand...
I'm not super familiar with LES. Temps look to stay around normal or slightly above,as a whole, for the month of December. But we will see cold shots, so the lakes should start cooling. Come January and February, the temps are expected to drop below average. If that is the case, I would think that the LES would just occur later in the season than normal. Again, I really don't know a lot when it comes to LES, but that would be my thoughts.

I've seen some news outlets talking about how warm this winter looks to be, and they are citing the warm start to the winter as evidence. But they are going to be in for a big shock. Some of the coldest winters on record occurred after very warm late falls/early winters. One other thing, when it comes to weather especially, is that people tend to have shoddy memories. I had a friend talking about how the temps were in the upper 50's the past week and that he couldn't remember the last time it was this warm this early into winter. Well, the problem there is a) it's not winter. And b) the average high temp for this time of year is mid 50's. So, yeah, it's slightly warmer, but it's nothing out of the ordinary. I don't mean to imply this is what you are doing by any means. Just trying to give insight into the weather thought process being talked about now.

I would expect the LES events to probably start to ratchet up soon.
Click to expand...
I'm fine with a very cold Jan/Feb if it's staying decent through December. What makes the winter unbearable is when we get those brutal temps right from the start.

 
Looks like the middle of the country could see a huge storm for Christmas. Nightmare travel situation as it will probably start on the 24th. The east coast could see temps up near the 70's again for Christmas, as I am already looking for possible tee times on the 26th.

Just to reiterate what I said earlier, because I see a lot of people (not here) talking about how winter is over. First and foremost, winter hasn't even started. It's still a week away. But more importantly, this warm weather was always forecasted for the east coast. It's not global warming and while it's not the norm, it's not unheard of. It's simply an El Nino year. The peak has happened and the waters are beginning their cooling. Albeit, slower than first forecasted. Thoughts were that the cold winter would hit us by the end of December. Looks like we can push that back by about two weeks to mid January.

As of now, for the east coast, it still looks to be a cold and snowy winter. It won't be as cold as the past 3 winters, but we will see cold shots followed by brief warm ups. When it does snow, it won't look like Minnesota here like the last winters where the snow was on the ground all winter. The chance for big snow storms is much greater this year than the past 4 years. So while we may not see as many snow events as in the past, we will probably still see above average snowfall due to each storm dumping more snow. February and early March is going to be the time frame to watch for the big snow events.

I still think that March will live up to it's motto with it coming in like a lion and out like a lamb. A very stormy start could make way to an early warming spring.

So if you're in the mid Atlantic, I wouldn't count this winter over yet. Some of the snowiest and coldest winters started off with record high temps in December. Of course, as with all cases where you are predicting the future, nothing is a guarantee. But the science is currently telling us that Winter is Coming.

 
russinfortworth said:
TheIronSheik said:
Looks like the middle of the country could see a huge storm for Christmas. Nightmare travel situation as it will probably start on the 24th.
Click to expand...
WeatherSheik

Driving from Fort Worth to Omaha on the 23rd and 24th. What are you seeing?
Click to expand...
In the immortal words of Clubber Lang: Pain.

Obviously we are still very far out from those dates, but right now a storm signal is showing for that area. Could be a mess. You're definitely going to need to keep an eye on the forecast as it gets closer.

 
russinfortworth said:
sheik............any update?

Don't see anything until later in the week/weekend.
Click to expand...
Looks like the system is going to be warmer than first looked. The south is going to see severe weather, but looks like wintry weather will not be an issue. Thunderstorms and flash flooding could be an issue for the south, though, depending where you are and when. By the 23rd, I believe the severe weather will have moved east of the Fort Worth area.

 
Snowed a little on the afternoon of Friday 12/18, but it had nearly all melted by the time I left work at 5. Some of the southern burbs picked up a few inches but I have to imagine it's gone by now.

Forecasts of 59-56-48 for the 23rd through Christmas and continuing into the mid-40s for all of next week. The average high for this time of year is 34 degrees, and the lowest forecasted high over the next 10 days is 41 degrees. What an odd December this has been.

 
Enjoy the warmth while you can. Looks like the pattern change will hit right around the first week of January. Maybe slightly before.

 
Sheik,

How bad does that storm that is supposed to start Friday in the Texas Panhandle look. I've seen a model from our weatherman here that shows parts of Oklahoma and Kansas getting 18+ inches Friday-Monday.

Just wondering if it will be bad when we head back?

 
TheIronSheik said:
Looks like a possible storm signal for right around January 6-8 time frame for the East Coast. Will keep monitoring.
Click to expand...
This is moving a couple days later to about the January 8-10 time frame. Models show some very nice blocking setting up. This is definitely one to keep an eye on for now.

Some icing will happen tonight in N PA, N NJ and NY. Be careful if you drive in the morning.

 
Going to get somewhere around a foot up here outside of Green Bay, WI tonite. It will delay my trip home one day because we have nothing really planned, and it's not worth pushing. At least we get a taste of winter on our trip up north!!

 
I used to laugh when I'd hear that Tennesee or Atlanta got a couple inches of snow and the roads shutdown.

3.5 inches in the Twin Cities and my son's high school basketball game was cancelled today. :bag:

Pathetic.

 
Chicago got the weirdest, wettest snow cone type of precip I've ever seen. It felt like driving through concrete last night.

 
TheIronSheik said:
TheIronSheik said:
Looks like a possible storm signal for right around January 6-8 time frame for the East Coast. Will keep monitoring.
Click to expand...
This is moving a couple days later to about the January 8-10 time frame. Models show some very nice blocking setting up. This is definitely one to keep an eye on for now.

Some icing will happen tonight in N PA, N NJ and NY. Be careful if you drive in the morning.
Click to expand...
The active pattern begins at this timeframe and will most likely stay with us until March. What's that mean? That means the chance for large coastal storms for the east coast. It's been about 5-6 years since the pattern has been this favorable for long duration, coastal storms for us. So if this first storm signal doesn't materialize, there are several others lined up right after it.

So nothing has changed from the original call of this winter. The mild start to the winter was always called for. The backend of winter will be cold and snowy like we haven't seen in about half a decade.

 
Here in the mid Atlantic it feels like our calendar is set a month ahead. It used to get cold here in November and last til about March. Now it doesn't get cold until January and extends into late April.

 
TheIronSheik said:
STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:
Here in the mid Atlantic it feels like our calendar is set a month ahead. It used to get cold here in November and last til about March. Now it doesn't get cold until January and extends into late April.
Click to expand...
It's due to the El Nino. This was expected.
Click to expand...
my plants are trying to grow again after this 70 degree weather . looking forward to some feet of snow and days off.. my chili ingredients and liquor are fully stocked!

my broinlaw bought me a electric shovel looking forward to getting drunk and being that guy

 
VA703 said:
TheIronSheik said:
STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:
Here in the mid Atlantic it feels like our calendar is set a month ahead. It used to get cold here in November and last til about March. Now it doesn't get cold until January and extends into late April.
Click to expand...
It's due to the El Nino. This was expected.
Click to expand...
my plants are trying to grow again after this 70 degree weather . looking forward to some feet of snow and days off.. my chili ingredients and liquor are fully stocked!

my broinlaw bought me a electric shovel looking forward to getting drunk and being that guy
Click to expand...
What is this thing you speak of?

 
TheIronSheik said:
VA703 said:
TheIronSheik said:
STEADYMOBBIN 22 said:
Here in the mid Atlantic it feels like our calendar is set a month ahead. It used to get cold here in November and last til about March. Now it doesn't get cold until January and extends into late April.
Click to expand...
It's due to the El Nino. This was expected.
Click to expand...
my plants are trying to grow again after this 70 degree weather . looking forward to some feet of snow and days off.. my chili ingredients and liquor are fully stocked!

my broinlaw bought me a electric shovel looking forward to getting drunk and being that guy
Click to expand...
What is this thing you speak of?
Click to expand...
havnt opened the box yet but its pretty much a snow blower in shovel form

 
Tom Servo said:
Still in the 50s here in NW PA. All hail El Nino!!!! :tebow:
Click to expand...
It's been in the 70s for over a week now in NC. Rained a lot but warm all day and nights (60ish). Crazy weather. Warmest December I can recall in almost 10 years and nothing anywhere close. I always tell people we can get those spot 70 plus days, but this is over a week straight of 70 plus.
 
TheIronSheik said:
TheIronSheik said:
TheIronSheik said:
Looks like a possible storm signal for right around January 6-8 time frame for the East Coast. Will keep monitoring.
Click to expand...
This is moving a couple days later to about the January 8-10 time frame. Models show some very nice blocking setting up. This is definitely one to keep an eye on for now.

Some icing will happen tonight in N PA, N NJ and NY. Be careful if you drive in the morning.
Click to expand...
The active pattern begins at this timeframe and will most likely stay with us until March. What's that mean? That means the chance for large coastal storms for the east coast. It's been about 5-6 years since the pattern has been this favorable for long duration, coastal storms for us. So if this first storm signal doesn't materialize, there are several others lined up right after it.

So nothing has changed from the original call of this winter. The mild start to the winter was always called for. The backend of winter will be cold and snowy like we haven't seen in about half a decade.
Click to expand...
Looks like the 11th is going to be the day for the possible big storm. Also, the following weekend of the 16th looks like another strong storm signal.

 
TheIronSheik said:
TheIronSheik said:
TheIronSheik said:
TheIronSheik said:
Looks like a possible storm signal for right around January 6-8 time frame for the East Coast. Will keep monitoring.
Click to expand...
This is moving a couple days later to about the January 8-10 time frame. Models show some very nice blocking setting up. This is definitely one to keep an eye on for now.

Some icing will happen tonight in N PA, N NJ and NY. Be careful if you drive in the morning.
Click to expand...
The active pattern begins at this timeframe and will most likely stay with us until March. What's that mean? That means the chance for large coastal storms for the east coast. It's been about 5-6 years since the pattern has been this favorable for long duration, coastal storms for us. So if this first storm signal doesn't materialize, there are several others lined up right after it.

So nothing has changed from the original call of this winter. The mild start to the winter was always called for. The backend of winter will be cold and snowy like we haven't seen in about half a decade.
Click to expand...
Looks like the 11th is going to be the day for the possible big storm. Also, the following weekend of the 16th looks like another strong storm signal.
Click to expand...
Flight on Monday the 18th . . . .

 
Monday is looking less and less exciting if you are a snow lover in my area. The pattern change really takes effect that day, so while it would have been awesome to have a storm on the first day of the pattern change, not a huge deal it's going to most likely be a miss. The week is ahead is still ripe with storm signals, and those will most likely continue into mid March.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Monday is looking less and less exciting if you are a snow lover in my area. The pattern change really takes effect that day, so while it would have been awesome to have a storm on the first day of the pattern change, not a huge deal it's going to most likely be a miss. The week is ahead is still ripe with storm signals, and those will most likely continue into mid March.
Click to expand...
Where is your area, so I know how relevant this is to us East Coast folks?

 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Ministry of Pain
So I bought into a "Craft" Beer n Wine store with a Drive-Thru
2
Replies
81
Views
5K
Instinctive
Instinctive
DJackson10
Need some Work related issue advice on how to settle a matter
Replies
4
Views
726
Ghost Rider
Ghost Rider
randall146
randall's ALS diary
10 11 12
Replies
588
Views
43K
Galileo
Galileo

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top