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Snowmageddon 2022 (1 Viewer)

It's amazing how popular I get on days like this. My phone has been buzzing off the hook. (Is that still a saying?) My boss called me down to his office and when I got there all he wanted was for me to give him updates on the storm.

 
It's amazing how popular I get on days like this. My phone has been buzzing off the hook. (Is that still a saying?) My boss called me down to his office and when I got there all he wanted was for me to give him updates on the storm.
My office amateur met retired over the summer.... I need to get my hook up some where.

 
The NAM just came in with a huge hit for my area. Crazy thing about the model is that you are either a HUGE hit or a coating of snow. The entire northern cutoff line divides counties where the southern part of the county is getting 1 to 2 feet of snow while the northern part of the county is lucky to see flurries. It's crazy!

 
It's amazing how popular I get on days like this. My phone has been buzzing off the hook. (Is that still a saying?) My boss called me down to his office and when I got there all he wanted was for me to give him updates on the storm.
I was just talking to our survey manager, giving him your updates. Keep the info coming - he needs to schedule his field crews.

:thumbup: (seriously, much appreciate all the info here from everyone)

 
I always feel I have to reiterate this (and even though it may sound like CYA, it's really not), but keep in mind 2 things here: 1) I'm not a meteorologist by any means. 2) The information I'm giving out is based solely on what the models are showing at this time. These things are all subject to change and most likely will. That said, I can give you my informed breakdown of what the models are saying and make guesses at what I see.

That said, here's the NAM snow map. This is not a forecast. I'm only really posting it to show just how crazy the northern cutoff is.

 
I'm right in SW PA, right on this cut-off area. No idea. Could get a coating, could get over a foot. Wonderful.....

 
I am driving back from the NOVA area on Thursday evening. The flight re arrangemetns sucked for me so just going to get the heck out of dodge and back to Raleigh.

 
They're saying the storm surge on the coast could be as bad or worse than Sandy. :(

Just a reminder to those worried about losing porn/internet due to the storm. Just because your power is out, doesnt mean your Internet is down. Run an extension cord from a power inverter in your car to your modem/router/laptop and wa la, back in business. :thumbup:

 
I'm right in SW PA, right on this cut-off area. No idea. Could get a coating, could get over a foot. Wonderful.....
NW PA to get almost nothing. There'll be nothing to see here, which I like as my grandma is in hospice and I live an hour from her and don't need the headache.

 
need a few pounds of bacon and bourbon ill be good to go

probably go with some sierra Nevada torpedo and some light beer to mix it up while shoveling

 
For my Richmond people. Looking more and more like we are getting whacked the hardest.

If not by the snow, but the wind seems to shaping up to be violent on Saturday.

Iced wires with 30-40 mph wind gusts = power outtages.

Stock up IMO (especially since I've learned as a New Englander, that no one knows how to drive down here)
I got a buddy in Richmond, and we've got a wager going. Over/under 12" in his front yard (measured by his wife) - I've got the over - with a good six pack of beer on the line here.....what say you?

 
For my Richmond people. Looking more and more like we are getting whacked the hardest.

If not by the snow, but the wind seems to shaping up to be violent on Saturday.

Iced wires with 30-40 mph wind gusts = power outtages.

Stock up IMO (especially since I've learned as a New Englander, that no one knows how to drive down here)
I got a buddy in Richmond, and we've got a wager going. Over/under 12" in his front yard (measured by his wife) - I've got the over - with a good six pack of beer on the line here.....what say you?
:lol: :softball:

 
For my Richmond people. Looking more and more like we are getting whacked the hardest.

If not by the snow, but the wind seems to shaping up to be violent on Saturday.

Iced wires with 30-40 mph wind gusts = power outtages.

Stock up IMO (especially since I've learned as a New Englander, that no one knows how to drive down here)
I got a buddy in Richmond, and we've got a wager going. Over/under 12" in his front yard (measured by his wife) - I've got the over - with a good six pack of beer on the line here.....what say you?
Tricky part for us is how close we are to the line. It could be 4" or 24" and I think it's an either or thing for us at this point.

I'm betting on the over at this point.

 
For my Richmond people. Looking more and more like we are getting whacked the hardest.

If not by the snow, but the wind seems to shaping up to be violent on Saturday.

Iced wires with 30-40 mph wind gusts = power outtages.

Stock up IMO (especially since I've learned as a New Englander, that no one knows how to drive down here)
I got a buddy in Richmond, and we've got a wager going. Over/under 12" in his front yard (measured by his wife) - I've got the over - with a good six pack of beer on the line here.....what say you?
Tricky part for us is how close we are to the line. It could be 4" or 24" and I think it's an either or thing for us at this point.

I'm betting on the over at this point.
Have to factor in drifting as well. Could screw you if the snow is blown out of his yard.

 
Going to wait until Friday because I can but looks like I'll be canceling our hotel in Baltimore for Saturday night as we likely wouldn't be able to make it down from PA on Saturday afternoon. Here is to hoping Baltimore takes a wallop and the concert we were going to gets canceled so I can either get my money back or tickets for another show.

 
For my Richmond people. Looking more and more like we are getting whacked the hardest.

If not by the snow, but the wind seems to shaping up to be violent on Saturday.

Iced wires with 30-40 mph wind gusts = power outtages.

Stock up IMO (especially since I've learned as a New Englander, that no one knows how to drive down here)
I got a buddy in Richmond, and we've got a wager going. Over/under 12" in his front yard (measured by his wife) - I've got the over - with a good six pack of beer on the line here.....what say you?
Tricky part for us is how close we are to the line. It could be 4" or 24" and I think it's an either or thing for us at this point.

I'm betting on the over at this point.
He's about a mile from the track. If he were in his old place further out west I'd feel better about the wager.

 
Keep in mind, we are still 3 days out. I wouldn't put too much stock into what the snow maps are saying just yet, other than track and run to run consistency.

 
Keep in mind, we are still 3 days out. I wouldn't put too much stock into what the snow maps are saying just yet, other than track and run to run consistency.
I was just going to say the same thing. There are going to be some incredibly intense bands of snow - whoever ends up under those will be the one who gets 30". This run of the GFS put those bands right over DC, but those bands will jump around on the models from now right up until the start of the storm and it's impossible to know where they'll really be. My experience is that they usually end up north and west of DC, somewhere on the line between Columbia and Westminster.

The thing to bank on is that the overall trend continues to show 20" for everyone in DC/Baltimore.

 
How does a dense city like DC handle snow removal of this magnitude? When I lived near Chicago we got that 24" snow and they literally had to scoop it into dump trucks and dump it in Lake Michigan. Nowhere to plow that much snow.

 
How does a dense city like DC handle snow removal of this magnitude? When I lived near Chicago we got that 24" snow and they literally had to scoop it into dump trucks and dump it in Lake Michigan. Nowhere to plow that much snow.
I was living in Baltimore during the big snow storm of 2010. They were dumping snow into the Inner Harbor.

 
From our buddy Jay's Wintry Mix on FB, who is very good for NoVA.

When talking about this winter back in the fall, what was discussed was

1) Super El Nino and its propensity for extreme events
2) Patience (November, December and 73 degree Christmas Eve)
3) When there was cold air, you had to take advantage due to a very active southern jet stream
4) A higher than normal chance of a historic event
5) a year like 1982-1983 where it was mostly warm but was known for a historical storm(Blizzard of 1983).
6) that February would be the likeliest
timeframe for big snow. I think i also said that trying to rely on a historical storm to make your winter is a tall order.

At any rate, we are now under a blizzard watch in January...not February :) with a storm that has potential of being the greatest of all time for the DC area. And yes...the bust potential is always in my mind. Ive seen too many busts to discount the possibility. I think we will see alot of 2 foot totals and jackpot areas are still to be determined. If it snows 10-15 inches, to me that will be a bust.
 
They're saying the storm surge on the coast could be as bad or worse than Sandy. :(

Just a reminder to those worried about losing porn/internet due to the storm. Just because your power is out, doesnt mean your Internet is down. Run an extension cord from a power inverter in your car to your modem/router/laptop and wa la, back in business. :thumbup:
That's a good idea. The pilot can certainly handle that.
 
How does a dense city like DC handle snow removal of this magnitude? When I lived near Chicago we got that 24" snow and they literally had to scoop it into dump trucks and dump it in Lake Michigan. Nowhere to plow that much snow.
I was living in Baltimore during the big snow storm of 2010. They were dumping snow into the Inner Harbor.
I was there, too. It was a freaking nightmare on the side streets for days & days.

 
How does a dense city like DC handle snow removal of this magnitude? When I lived near Chicago we got that 24" snow and they literally had to scoop it into dump trucks and dump it in Lake Michigan. Nowhere to plow that much snow.
I was living in Baltimore during the big snow storm of 2010. They were dumping snow into the Inner Harbor.
I was there, too. It was a freaking nightmare on the side streets for days & days.
I was living in the Northern part of the city and thankfully had a little bit of a driveway. But the streets and parking was a total disaster there for awhile.

 
How does a dense city like DC handle snow removal of this magnitude? When I lived near Chicago we got that 24" snow and they literally had to scoop it into dump trucks and dump it in Lake Michigan. Nowhere to plow that much snow.
Not well. :Drops Mic:

You need to have snow removal equipment to handle snow. They don't have it. We normally don't get enough big storms to justify the need for such equipment. The city will be shut down until June.

 
How does a dense city like DC handle snow removal of this magnitude? When I lived near Chicago we got that 24" snow and they literally had to scoop it into dump trucks and dump it in Lake Michigan. Nowhere to plow that much snow.
Not well. :Drops Mic:

You need to have snow removal equipment to handle snow. They don't have it. We normally don't get enough big storms to justify the need for such equipment. The city will be shut down until June.
Down here in Southern MD, it's even worse. So many country backroads that if we get more than a foot, they could probably be out of school most of next week.

 
For my Richmond people. Looking more and more like we are getting whacked the hardest.

If not by the snow, but the wind seems to shaping up to be violent on Saturday.

Iced wires with 30-40 mph wind gusts = power outtages.

Stock up IMO (especially since I've learned as a New Englander, that no one knows how to drive down here)
I got a buddy in Richmond, and we've got a wager going. Over/under 12" in his front yard (measured by his wife) - I've got the over - with a good six pack of beer on the line here.....what say you?
Tricky part for us is how close we are to the line. It could be 4" or 24" and I think it's an either or thing for us at this point.

I'm betting on the over at this point.
Over, no doubt.

 
How does a dense city like DC handle snow removal of this magnitude? When I lived near Chicago we got that 24" snow and they literally had to scoop it into dump trucks and dump it in Lake Michigan. Nowhere to plow that much snow.
Not well. :Drops Mic:

You need to have snow removal equipment to handle snow. They don't have it. We normally don't get enough big storms to justify the need for such equipment. The city will be shut down until June.
Down here in Southern MD, it's even worse. So many country backroads that if we get more than a foot, they could probably be out of school most of next week.
I bet you will have even worse conditions with heavier, wet snow due to being close to the water.

 
How does a dense city like DC handle snow removal of this magnitude? When I lived near Chicago we got that 24" snow and they literally had to scoop it into dump trucks and dump it in Lake Michigan. Nowhere to plow that much snow.
Not well. :Drops Mic:

You need to have snow removal equipment to handle snow. They don't have it. We normally don't get enough big storms to justify the need for such equipment. The city will be shut down until June.
Down here in Southern MD, it's even worse. So many country backroads that if we get more than a foot, they could probably be out of school most of next week.
I bet you will have even worse conditions with heavier, wet snow due to being close to the water.
Hoping we avoid flooding when it all starts to melt

 
I always feel I have to reiterate this (and even though it may sound like CYA, it's really not), but keep in mind 2 things here: 1) I'm not a meteorologist by any means. 2) The information I'm giving out is based solely on what the models are showing at this time. These things are all subject to change and most likely will. That said, I can give you my informed breakdown of what the models are saying and make guesses at what I see.

That said, here's the NAM snow map. This is not a forecast. I'm only really posting it to show just how crazy the northern cutoff is.
I'm going to change the oil in my snowblower. This will guarantee we get zero snow.

FWIW, it is virtually impossible to accurately predict snowfall in the Pocono Mountains. I asked an old codger up here how much know he thought we'd get, and he said, "I'll tell you when it stops snowing. Anyone who tells you they know how much snow we're going to get on this mountain is lying."

On that map...see that little blotch of yellow on the NE PA/NJ border, and then the tiny speck of dark orange NW of it right in the Poconos?

That's my house.

 
For my Richmond people. Looking more and more like we are getting whacked the hardest.

If not by the snow, but the wind seems to shaping up to be violent on Saturday.

Iced wires with 30-40 mph wind gusts = power outtages.

Stock up IMO (especially since I've learned as a New Englander, that no one knows how to drive down here)
I got a buddy in Richmond, and we've got a wager going. Over/under 12" in his front yard (measured by his wife) - I've got the over - with a good six pack of beer on the line here.....what say you?
Tricky part for us is how close we are to the line. It could be 4" or 24" and I think it's an either or thing for us at this point.

I'm betting on the over at this point.
Over, no doubt.
My only issue is the potential for "mixing" that far south and east of the "sweet spot".

 
There are going to be people getting buried in 2 feet of snow while others 100 miles away will use this storm as a reference point a year from now as to why forecasts are #### and mets always get things wrong.

 
they are saying it will be impossible to navigate during this storm

hopefully nobody will need medical attention

 
I could be wrong, but didn't Boston have an issue with not being able to dump the snow into the harbor last year? Something about it being considered not environmentally friendly? That's why they had that huge pile that took until August to melt.

 
I could be wrong, but didn't Boston have an issue with not being able to dump the snow into the harbor last year? Something about it being considered not environmentally friendly? That's why they had that huge pile that took until August to melt.
If it were just dumping snow, it would fine. It is all the oil, trash, shopping carts and assorted random crap that gets dumped in as well that is the issue. The Boston area hasn't used the charles or harbor in years for snow removal. It has helped the pollution issues in both.

 

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