Bogeys
Footballguy
But you are our weather nerdThey're pay sites. Yes. I'm a weather nerd.
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Snowmageddon 2022 (3 Viewers)
- Thread starter =Smackdown=
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ClownCausedChaos2
Footballguy
TheIronSheik
SUPER ELITE UPPER TIER
I know.Oh, dude.They're pay sites. Yes. I'm a weather nerd.
Fat Nick
Footballguy
1) I didn't know those existed. Do they bill discreetly? How does the future Mrs. Iron Sheik feel about this discretionary spending?They're pay sites. Yes. I'm a weather nerd.
2) I'll gladly trade small engine repair tips for weather tips as long as I can put a percentage chance on everything so that I'm never wrong. i.e. "I'm 80% sure if you tip your lawn mower on its side, you'll get gas in your intake."
TheIronSheik
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1) I didn't know those existed. Do they bill discreetly? How does the future Mrs. Iron Sheik feel about this discretionary spending?They're pay sites. Yes. I'm a weather nerd.
2) I'll gladly trade small engine repair tips for weather tips as long as I can put a percentage chance on everything so that I'm never wrong. i.e. "I'm 80% sure if you tip your lawn mower on its side, you'll get gas in your intake."
She's fine with it. In fact, most of my friends will text me and ask me the weather if they are planning something. I'm their personal weather guy.
The sites aren't that expensive. A lot of them price depending on what you want. You could spend a fortune if you wanted everything. I think a lot of businesses that operate outside probably use these sites. I just pay to be on the forums and get detailed analyses of model runs and things like that. I've always enjoyed weather. And if I would have been able to do any math above a 5th grade level, I probably would have gone to college for weather.
Instead, it's just a inexpensive hobby of mine now.
ClownCausedChaos2
Footballguy
Parrothead
Footballguy
Pay weather sites are a better investment than pay pron site for IS (over 40).. more storms than boners these days.. amirite? 
PatriotJohn
Footballguy
If the La-Nina that they have been projecting to setup does not happen again, leaving us neutral like last year, we could be in for a repeat of last winter, much like the back to back winters of 77/78.
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
Pay weather sites? These exist?
PatriotJohn
Footballguy
HamWeather is one....WeatherTap is another, but you pay for up to date radar, satellite and other info but well worth the $$ for what they offer. Most others are private weather firms that charge for the use of their graphics or services.
STEADYMOBBIN 22
Footballguy
Sheehan?I know.Oh, dude.They're pay sites. Yes. I'm a weather nerd.
Fat Nick
Footballguy
TheIronSheik
SUPER ELITE UPPER TIER
Plus, if people are always mocking you, that means they love you deep down. Why else would Pickles take the time to do so?
Mr. Pickles
Footballguy
TheIronSheik
SUPER ELITE UPPER TIER
Depends on who you're asking. If you are asking a company, the answer is that they want detailed weather reports and they want them constantly updated. They want long range outlooks for their areas of concern. This is something that you can't get from watching the weather.
If you are asking a person, they can get detailed reports, along with expert analysis of model runs, long range forecasting and up to the minute forecasts for their area.
Companies usually need global weather reports. Individuals want reports for the areas they live in.
Mr. Ected
Footballguy
Heard today that El Niño might be like 2009-2010. Here in DC we had 3 18"-24"+ storms in a month or two; each of those is far more than we usually get in a winter.
PatriotJohn
Footballguy
I am getting timely up to date radar and aviation weather data that I need to brief pilots and decision makers for resource protection. This is our main backup to our Gibson Ridge radar and everything else if our base internet goes down. plus I can use it for Metwatch from home for severe weather recall purposes.
Tom Servo
Nittany Beavers
Tom Servo
Nittany Beavers
TheIronSheik
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Long range forecasting is by no means 100% accurate, but it is a very useful tool. That said, a lot prognosticators are saying the set up could be a mild beginning to the winter, followed by a cold and snowy winter. The setup of the Arctic Jet Stream could be conducive to Nor'easters for the first quarter of the year.
Looks like the end of October we could see a warm up on the East Coast with temperatures above average. Just need to get through the first part of a cold October.
TheIronSheik
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Parts of MN and WI could see up to 4 inches of snow in certain areas over the next 48 hours.
Otis
Footballguy
Wow, can't believe it's that time of year already. Off we go!
Excited for some bit NY snowstorms this winter
TheIronSheik
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TheIronSheik
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Not sure who you mean by "they" but when forecasters do long range forecasts like that, they're using a lot of things. And depending on who they are, they may put more weight on some things than others do. They watch things like jet streams and how they are bouncing. As they go up and down, they develop patterns. These patterns can be drawn out over long periods. Sea Surface Temps also are big indicators, hence all the talk about El Nino and La Nina.
From that, they'll use historical data to match current findings and then see how past years performed. Long term forecasting is by no means completely accurate, but it's usually a fair indicator of what to expect.
TheIronSheik
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Here's a 2014-15 Winter Outlook that does an AMAZING job at explaining everything. It's a great read. Of course, if you just want the conclusion, skip all the way to the end.
Mark him as another met who thinks the Mid Atlantic is in for a wild winter this year.
Mark him as another met who thinks the Mid Atlantic is in for a wild winter this year.
TheIronSheik
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I can't speak for TWC, but I know that most long range forecasts called for a below average temp and above average precip winter for the Northeast. No one thought it would be as bad as it was, but for the most part, these were the calls I saw.
TheIronSheik
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Classic Nor'easter setting up for New England the next couple of days. Temps still too warm for snow, but this could be a sign of what's to come this winter.
TheIronSheik
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I've talked about it in the Severe Weather thread, but figured I'd post it here, too. Last couple model runs have all been hinting that this pattern continues. So the coastal storm that is affecting the Northeast today seems to be a reoccurring theme over the next couple of weeks. This week's storm didn't have much in the way of cold weather to tap into, so we are seeing places in New England getting hammered with wind and rain. But that will change over the next couple of weeks.
A storm signal for Oct.31/Nov.1 shows that another coastal storm is possible. This one could have cold enough temps to see some frozen precipitation. And the following storm signal, for Nov.4-6 will also have cold temps.
These are only model runs, and they can change. A lot. Add into it that there was a loss of satellite data that has affected all long term models:
...and things can get even more tricky. But the pattern is there. And winter is coming. So. There's that.
TheIronSheik
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Satellite data is back and models are running correctly again. Many of the models backed off of the huge trough dipping down into the south, but the trough is still there. Just not as big. Next weekend is still something to keep an eye on. Some models are still showing cold enough solutions that could warrant precipitation of the frozen variety for some. Will some places see their first snowflakes early? Tune in tomorrow! Same snow time. Same snow channel.
TheIronSheik
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Model runs are still hinting that this weekend storm could produce snow for parts of the Northeast. But where and how much is still up for debate. System is still offshore, and while it's offshore, models will usually fluctuate. Once it comes ashore in the next couple days, we'll get a better sense of what will happen once it heads east.
Temperatures will definitely be cold enough across most of the region, but it looks like the amount of moisture will be the determining factor. I wouldn't be surprised if many places from PA on northward saw at least their first flakes of the season. That is, unless they already saw a dusting with the storm a week ago.
Temperatures will definitely be cold enough across most of the region, but it looks like the amount of moisture will be the determining factor. I wouldn't be surprised if many places from PA on northward saw at least their first flakes of the season. That is, unless they already saw a dusting with the storm a week ago.
TheIronSheik
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So here's the GFS model run for Friday into Saturday.
Before anyone goes too crazy, these totals that are listed are not actual totals. So let me explain a little bit. This will be a wet snow, as opposed to a dry snow. Wet snow occurs when the air temperature and ground temperature are close to freezing. This snow is heavier and sits down more. Dry snow is fluffy and therefore can accumulate to deeper depths.
Without going into great, boring details, there are two factors to add to the model snow totals. First, due to it being very wet snow, the actual snow totals would be cut in half. So if your area says 4 inches, it's actually predicting 2 inches of snow. The next thing here is the ground temperature and angle of the sun. Both will limit what can stick to the ground without melting. So even if 2 inches of snow falls, it most likely will not mean 2 inches of snow will stick.
If this model were to prove correct, most areas would see flakes and maybe a dusting, while those purple areas saw some accumulation.
Before anyone goes too crazy, these totals that are listed are not actual totals. So let me explain a little bit. This will be a wet snow, as opposed to a dry snow. Wet snow occurs when the air temperature and ground temperature are close to freezing. This snow is heavier and sits down more. Dry snow is fluffy and therefore can accumulate to deeper depths.
Without going into great, boring details, there are two factors to add to the model snow totals. First, due to it being very wet snow, the actual snow totals would be cut in half. So if your area says 4 inches, it's actually predicting 2 inches of snow. The next thing here is the ground temperature and angle of the sun. Both will limit what can stick to the ground without melting. So even if 2 inches of snow falls, it most likely will not mean 2 inches of snow will stick.
If this model were to prove correct, most areas would see flakes and maybe a dusting, while those purple areas saw some accumulation.
TheIronSheik
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Models are converging on two solutions. First solution has a good snow fall over N New England with not much precipitation elsewhere. Second solution keeps the LOW further south. This would be more in line with the snowfall map I posted a little bit ago.
Looks like cold air will filter in before the system moves in. Saturday should be our first real taste of Winter 2014-15.
Looks like cold air will filter in before the system moves in. Saturday should be our first real taste of Winter 2014-15.
3C's
Footballguy
here on the good side of the state (
) it will still hit near 60 Sunday afternoon (40 overnight) and no precip in sight.
TheIronSheik
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Good article talking about this weekend's storm.
There May or May Not Be a Snowstorm in the Northeast This Weekend
There May or May Not Be a Snowstorm in the Northeast This Weekend
PatriotJohn
Footballguy
Models are almost always in a flux during the first few events of the season.
TheIronSheik
SUPER ELITE UPPER TIER
Models are still liking something happening this weekend. Ones that weren't on board earlier are now starting to come around. We're entering the time frame where models begin to become more reliable, so seeing them all start to agree is a good sign.
TheIronSheik
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Models are really trying to put together a fairly big storm for this weekend. If this was February, I'd be all in on the models. But seeing as we are still in October, I'm a little leery of believing it. At least at this point.
But this weekend could be something special in the Northeast.
TheIronSheik
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As we start to move into the more reliable model time frame, things are starting to take shape. This weekend may not bring an epic snow storm to the whole Northeast, but we will all see very cold temperatures and windy conditions. This weekend, winter will come visit. But it will be a short visit. And we should see a warm up until almost Thanksgiving.
So will we see an historic snow event this weekend? For most, no. For some, maybe. Looks like the brunt of the storm will affect places in New England, but even then, it's all going to depend if/when'where the heavy bands set up. I wouldn't be surprised if a couple places get walloped. But most of us will struggle to see anything. Maybe some flurries. Maybe some snow showers.
There's still some wiggle room left to see if things change, but as of now, nothing historic to speak of. That said, any snow this time of the year is still impressive, so it's definitely something to watch.
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