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Snowmageddon 2022 (2 Viewers)

From the WPC (pretty much sums up the thinking on this system):

A MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST DEPENDS UPON THE EVOLUTION OF N- AND S-
STREAM ENERGY...WHICH AS THIS PRESENT TIME IS BEING POORLY SAMPLED
BY IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS. OF CONCERN HAZARD-WISE IS THE POSSIBILITY
OF WINTER-WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE INTERIOR /ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA ON
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS NOR EXACTLY WHERE THIS
WILL ALL HAPPEN WITH THE DISPARITY IN FORECAST SOLUTIONS/
 
From the WPC (pretty much sums up the thinking on this system):

A MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST DEPENDS UPON THE EVOLUTION OF N- AND S-STREAM ENERGY...WHICH AS THIS PRESENT TIME IS BEING POORLY SAMPLED

BY IN-SITU OBSERVATIONS. OF CONCERN HAZARD-WISE IS THE POSSIBILITY

OF WINTER-WEATHER HEADLINES FOR THE INTERIOR /ABSOLUTELY NO IDEA ON

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS NOR PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS NOR EXACTLY WHERE THIS

WILL ALL HAPPEN WITH THE DISPARITY IN FORECAST SOLUTIONS/
One thing interesting to note, and I stress just to note, is that a couple of models still are seeing a fairly big storm coming for the east coast, from Philly up to Boston. I still see this as unlikely, but we shall see in due time.

 
With knee surgery looming I'm gonna miss this whole season :wall: I can at least sit at the resorts and get #### faced while the family ski's/boards but I'm already bumming on it.

 
With knee surgery looming I'm gonna miss this whole season :wall: I can at least sit at the resorts and get #### faced while the family ski's/boards but I'm already bumming on it.
That sucks. I don't ski, but I golf. And I broke my ankle right as the weather was getting warm this year. So I totally feel for ya, GB.

 
With knee surgery looming I'm gonna miss this whole season :wall: I can at least sit at the resorts and get #### faced while the family ski's/boards but I'm already bumming on it.
I need surgery to remove bone spurs on the top of my feet (think big toe knuckle)... 4-6 weeks in a walking boot. I'm trying to hold off as long as I can.

 
So it looks like the models are starting to think this thing may push out to sea more than ride the coast. If this is true, most places will see a cold drizzle for Saturday with some spots in the mountains getting a dusting or more. But even with that said, the WPC is still not totally convinced that snow is out of the question for the east coast. Here's the Fri to Sat map of snowfall chances. The snowfall is 1 inch or less, so basically just seeing flakes. Here's the 4 inches or more map.

Notice Maine is not shown on the last map. I tend to disagree with this. IF the system does not continue its push out to sea, ME should still be in play for a snow event. While the models are starting to zero in on their thoughts, there is still a bit of disagreement.

APPRECIABLE EARLY-NOVEMBER SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
APPALACHIANS AND LEE OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES IS LOOKING MORE
AND MORE LIKELY---GIVEN THE INITIAL AND SECONDARY SURGES OF
CANADIAN AIR MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST QUARTER OF THE NATION
BETWEEN DAY 3 AND DAY 5. TEMPERATURES FOR DAYS 3-4 WILL BE A GOOD
10F-15F BELOW NORMAL.
 
Of more interest to me is the prediction of snow in the Sierras. Is there a storm coming ashore in NorCal?
I don't see any mention of snow out that way, but I really don't follow that area too much.
The map you showed with the snow forcasts showed snow in the High Sierras. That's what I was going by.
Oh. Whoops. I guess I should learn where the Sierras are. :bag: I got confused and thought you were saying Northern California. But now I see I just read it wrong.

 
Looks like the models are starting to come to an agreement. Unfortunately it's the track that pushes the system out to sea. Still some time for a little wiggle room, but not looking good for anyone hoping to see some flakes this weekend.

 
Looks like the models are starting to come to an agreement. Unfortunately it's the track that pushes the system out to sea. Still some time for a little wiggle room, but not looking good for anyone hoping to see some flakes this weekend.
...and looking good for anyone hoping to go fishing on his burfday! :thumbup:

 
Looks like the models are starting to come to an agreement. Unfortunately it's the track that pushes the system out to sea. Still some time for a little wiggle room, but not looking good for anyone hoping to see some flakes this weekend.
Still looking like Maine is going to be the only place that gets any accumulating snow from this. But the WPC has not ruled out most of the Northeast having a chance to see their first snowflakes of the season.

 
With most of the moisture offshore, most people will just see bitterly cold weather and strong winds. There is a chance that places in the Northeast as far south as NYC could see a snowflake or two, but unless you are in NH or ME, no accumulating snow. If you do live in one of those states, you could see quite a nice snowstorm. Northern ME could see upwards to a foot of snow.

Temperatures should even back out for the next two weeks after the system pulls through.

 
Looking at the short range forecast:

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 316 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 31 2014 - 12Z Sun Nov 2 2014

***Major trough setting up over the Eastern U.S.***

***Drought relief on the way for California***

***Arctic surface high settles southward into U.S.***

The weather pattern will get interesting as we head into the weekend as a Manitoba mauler (a low pressure system coming from the Canadian province of Manitoba) dives southward towards the southern Appalachians by Saturday morning. This will result in the development of a highly amplified trough over the East Coast and a strong surface low developing offshore. In terms of sensible weather impacts, expect much colder weather by Saturday with numerous showers, and accumulating snow in the higher elevations of the Appalachians. Rain and windy conditions are likely for eastern New England by Sunday as the offshore low intensifies.
Everyone has heard the term Alberta Clipper. But there are 2 other clipper systems from Canada. They are the Saskatchewan Screamer and the Manitoba Mauler. They aren't as prevalent as the clipper from further west, but they do have more snow associated with them.

The more you know...

 
Looking at the short range forecast:

Short Range Forecast Discussion

NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 316 AM EDT Fri Oct 31 2014

Valid 12Z Fri Oct 31 2014 - 12Z Sun Nov 2 2014

***Major trough setting up over the Eastern U.S.***

***Drought relief on the way for California***

***Arctic surface high settles southward into U.S.***

The weather pattern will get interesting as we head into the weekend as a Manitoba mauler (a low pressure system coming from the Canadian province of Manitoba) dives southward towards the southern Appalachians by Saturday morning. This will result in the development of a highly amplified trough over the East Coast and a strong surface low developing offshore. In terms of sensible weather impacts, expect much colder weather by Saturday with numerous showers, and accumulating snow in the higher elevations of the Appalachians. Rain and windy conditions are likely for eastern New England by Sunday as the offshore low intensifies.
Everyone has heard the term Alberta Clipper. But there are 2 other clipper systems from Canada. They are the Saskatchewan Screamer and the Manitoba Mauler. They aren't as prevalent as the clipper from further west, but they do have more snow associated with them.

The more you know...
you forgot the Canadian Crippler

 
One-Two punch coming this weekend. Looks like end of this week and beginning of next week is when the next round begins.

 
Looking like late week will be a clipper system that could drop some snow over the Northeast. But the bigger system would be for early next week. This system has the potential to be another coastal system similar to the Halloween one. Almost all of the models have something forming, but the intensity and track (as usual) are still a disagreement.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Looking like late week will be a clipper system that could drop some snow over the Northeast. But the bigger system would be for early next week. This system has the potential to be another coastal system similar to the Halloween one. Almost all of the models have something forming, but the intensity and track (as usual) are still a disagreement.
Latest models show a TON of Arctic air coming into the Northeast next week. This could be our first real taste of full blown winter.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Looking like late week will be a clipper system that could drop some snow over the Northeast. But the bigger system would be for early next week. This system has the potential to be another coastal system similar to the Halloween one. Almost all of the models have something forming, but the intensity and track (as usual) are still a disagreement.
Latest models show a TON of Arctic air coming into the Northeast next week. This could be our first real taste of full blown winter.
Is it a regular ton or a ####-ton?

 
TheIronSheik said:
Looking like late week will be a clipper system that could drop some snow over the Northeast. But the bigger system would be for early next week. This system has the potential to be another coastal system similar to the Halloween one. Almost all of the models have something forming, but the intensity and track (as usual) are still a disagreement.
Latest models show a TON of Arctic air coming into the Northeast next week. This could be our first real taste of full blown winter.
Is it a regular ton or a ####-ton?
metric ####-ton

 
TheIronSheik said:
Looking like late week will be a clipper system that could drop some snow over the Northeast. But the bigger system would be for early next week. This system has the potential to be another coastal system similar to the Halloween one. Almost all of the models have something forming, but the intensity and track (as usual) are still a disagreement.
Latest models show a TON of Arctic air coming into the Northeast next week. This could be our first real taste of full blown winter.
Is it a regular ton or a ####-ton?
The latter. My area could see lows in the teens and highs in the 30's.

Typhoon Nuri is moving towards Alaska and is set to become a huge Alaskan super storm. This will feed the Arctic air down the trough and into the east. This will last only a couple of days, but it will be a shock to the system.

The blocking that's setting up now is what we will most likely see throughout the winter. This will mean fewer extended cold spells with the Polar Vortex. We'll probably see a lot of cold blasts followed by moderating temperatures. This pattern could mean fewer storms than last year for the east coast, but more powerful storms when they do happen.

 
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

A LEAD STRONG SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST WILL LIFT AWAY

FRI-SAT SO EXPECT RNFL AND COLD SECTOR SNOW TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY

QUICKLY AFTER A DECENT BURST. TRAILING FEATURES SHOULD FOCUS AREAS

OF MOSTLY LGT PCPN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS.

FRONTS EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SOUTH/GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY BE

PROGRESSIVE WITH LIMITED PRECEDING GULF INFLOW SO ANY RNFL OVER

THE SRN STATES IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LGT SIDE. CONFIDENCE

REMAINS LOW WITH PRECISE DETAILS OF EVOLUTION SFC/ALOFT AND ASSOC

SENSIBLE WEATHER NEAR THE EAST COAST SUN-TUE...BUT MODEL TRENDS

AND SUPPORTIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING UPSTREAM COULD SUPPORT

ANOTHER ORGANIZED COASTAL LOW/ASSOC PCPN POTENTIAL LIFTING UP OFF

THE ERN SEABOARD TOWARD NEW ENG AS PER WPC PROGS IN ADVANCE OF

ANOTHER INLAND COLD SURGE. AN AMPLIFIED OVERALL FLOW SCENARIO

ALOFT WOULD MEANWHILE ALSO ALLOW LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR TO SPILL

FROM CANADA INTO THE NWRN US AND MORE ERNESTLY WELL DOWN THROUGH

THE CENTRAL US DAYS 6/7 THAT COULD RESULT IN MODEST UPSLOPE

N-CENTRAL ROCKY STATES SNOWS.

SCHICHTEL
Models still thinking early next week could be a pretty decent sized coastal storm.

 
...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

A LEAD STRONG SYSTEM AFFECTING THE NORTHEAST WILL LIFT AWAY

FRI-SAT SO EXPECT RNFL AND COLD SECTOR SNOW TO TAPER OFF FAIRLY

QUICKLY AFTER A DECENT BURST. TRAILING FEATURES SHOULD FOCUS AREAS

OF MOSTLY LGT PCPN ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN HALF OF THE CONUS.

FRONTS EXTENDING SWD INTO THE SOUTH/GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY BE

PROGRESSIVE WITH LIMITED PRECEDING GULF INFLOW SO ANY RNFL OVER

THE SRN STATES IS EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LGT SIDE. CONFIDENCE

REMAINS LOW WITH PRECISE DETAILS OF EVOLUTION SFC/ALOFT AND ASSOC

SENSIBLE WEATHER NEAR THE EAST COAST SUN-TUE...BUT MODEL TRENDS

AND SUPPORTIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING UPSTREAM COULD SUPPORT

ANOTHER ORGANIZED COASTAL LOW/ASSOC PCPN POTENTIAL LIFTING UP OFF

THE ERN SEABOARD TOWARD NEW ENG AS PER WPC PROGS IN ADVANCE OF

ANOTHER INLAND COLD SURGE. AN AMPLIFIED OVERALL FLOW SCENARIO

ALOFT WOULD MEANWHILE ALSO ALLOW LOWER LEVEL COLD AIR TO SPILL

FROM CANADA INTO THE NWRN US AND MORE ERNESTLY WELL DOWN THROUGH

THE CENTRAL US DAYS 6/7 THAT COULD RESULT IN MODEST UPSLOPE

N-CENTRAL ROCKY STATES SNOWS.

SCHICHTEL
Models still thinking early next week could be a pretty decent sized coastal storm.
Models now starting to disagree a little on whether there will be a storm or not. The Super Typhoon is really playing havoc with the models. That said, storm or no storm, the cold air is almost a definite. Just how cold still needs to be seen, but it will definitely be well below average in most areas of the east coast.

 
A nice little image of the cold air flowing into the US from the Arctic. Storm details are still all over the place for next week. So much so that the WPC has pretty much said :shrug: wait and see for now.

Northern New England could see another foot of snow from the storm that will march through over the next couple of days. That means some places in ME could already be at 24 inches for the winter and November just started!

 
So there are three things to talk about for the East here.

1) Current system - This system is a combination of cold fronts that will slide through the area. There is a chance of some thunder with these showers through the mid Atlantic, while places in ME could see another foot of snow. These fronts will drop the temperatures as each one passes though. This system is actually happening, so the chances are 100% for this.

2) Early next week - The next system is still giving models headaches and fits. It is fairly certain that cold air will rush down from the Arctic into the east. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average with this system. Models are starting to lean towards the system not being a big coastal storm, but we are still days away from this, so anything is possible. The key here is that there is plenty of cold air to work with. Thoughts currently are that New England could see some back end snow from this system as it swings by offshore. This is looking more like just slightly less than a 50/50 chance of happening.

3) Next weekend - Now this is very far out, so this is nothing more than a storm signal. This means that models are hinting at something, but it's merely something to watch and not an actual forecast. That said, one of the models has this a something possibly huge. So it's something to definitely watch. But that's all. There are also models that show nothing. The key here is that 10 days out, it's something to keep an eye on.

 
So there are three things to talk about for the East here.

1) Current system - This system is a combination of cold fronts that will slide through the area. There is a chance of some thunder with these showers through the mid Atlantic, while places in ME could see another foot of snow. These fronts will drop the temperatures as each one passes though. This system is actually happening, so the chances are 100% for this.

2) Early next week - The next system is still giving models headaches and fits. It is fairly certain that cold air will rush down from the Arctic into the east. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average with this system. Models are starting to lean towards the system not being a big coastal storm, but we are still days away from this, so anything is possible. The key here is that there is plenty of cold air to work with. Thoughts currently are that New England could see some back end snow from this system as it swings by offshore. This is looking more like just slightly less than a 50/50 chance of happening.

3) Next weekend - Now this is very far out, so this is nothing more than a storm signal. This means that models are hinting at something, but it's merely something to watch and not an actual forecast. That said, one of the models has this a something possibly huge. So it's something to definitely watch. But that's all. There are also models that show nothing. The key here is that 10 days out, it's something to keep an eye on.
That third one is looking pretty interesting right now. Models are showing accumulating snow possibly along the I 95 corridor down through VA.

 
So there are three things to talk about for the East here.

1) Current system - This system is a combination of cold fronts that will slide through the area. There is a chance of some thunder with these showers through the mid Atlantic, while places in ME could see another foot of snow. These fronts will drop the temperatures as each one passes though. This system is actually happening, so the chances are 100% for this.

2) Early next week - The next system is still giving models headaches and fits. It is fairly certain that cold air will rush down from the Arctic into the east. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average with this system. Models are starting to lean towards the system not being a big coastal storm, but we are still days away from this, so anything is possible. The key here is that there is plenty of cold air to work with. Thoughts currently are that New England could see some back end snow from this system as it swings by offshore. This is looking more like just slightly less than a 50/50 chance of happening.

3) Next weekend - Now this is very far out, so this is nothing more than a storm signal. This means that models are hinting at something, but it's merely something to watch and not an actual forecast. That said, one of the models has this a something possibly huge. So it's something to definitely watch. But that's all. There are also models that show nothing. The key here is that 10 days out, it's something to keep an eye on.
That third one is looking pretty interesting right now. Models are showing accumulating snow possibly along the I 95 corridor down through VA.
The NWS is really liking this possible storm next weekend. Obviously long range here, but models are all seeing the same thing.

 
Are you talking about the

So there are three things to talk about for the East here.

1) Current system - This system is a combination of cold fronts that will slide through the area. There is a chance of some thunder with these showers through the mid Atlantic, while places in ME could see another foot of snow. These fronts will drop the temperatures as each one passes though. This system is actually happening, so the chances are 100% for this.

2) Early next week - The next system is still giving models headaches and fits. It is fairly certain that cold air will rush down from the Arctic into the east. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average with this system. Models are starting to lean towards the system not being a big coastal storm, but we are still days away from this, so anything is possible. The key here is that there is plenty of cold air to work with. Thoughts currently are that New England could see some back end snow from this system as it swings by offshore. This is looking more like just slightly less than a 50/50 chance of happening.

3) Next weekend - Now this is very far out, so this is nothing more than a storm signal. This means that models are hinting at something, but it's merely something to watch and not an actual forecast. That said, one of the models has this a something possibly huge. So it's something to definitely watch. But that's all. There are also models that show nothing. The key here is that 10 days out, it's something to keep an eye on.
That third one is looking pretty interesting right now. Models are showing accumulating snow possibly along the I 95 corridor down through VA.
The NWS is really liking this possible storm next weekend. Obviously long range here, but models are all seeing the same thing.
How much snow in Baltimore/DC?

 
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Are you talking about the

So there are three things to talk about for the East here.

1) Current system - This system is a combination of cold fronts that will slide through the area. There is a chance of some thunder with these showers through the mid Atlantic, while places in ME could see another foot of snow. These fronts will drop the temperatures as each one passes though. This system is actually happening, so the chances are 100% for this.

2) Early next week - The next system is still giving models headaches and fits. It is fairly certain that cold air will rush down from the Arctic into the east. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average with this system. Models are starting to lean towards the system not being a big coastal storm, but we are still days away from this, so anything is possible. The key here is that there is plenty of cold air to work with. Thoughts currently are that New England could see some back end snow from this system as it swings by offshore. This is looking more like just slightly less than a 50/50 chance of happening.

3) Next weekend - Now this is very far out, so this is nothing more than a storm signal. This means that models are hinting at something, but it's merely something to watch and not an actual forecast. That said, one of the models has this a something possibly huge. So it's something to definitely watch. But that's all. There are also models that show nothing. The key here is that 10 days out, it's something to keep an eye on.
That third one is looking pretty interesting right now. Models are showing accumulating snow possibly along the I 95 corridor down through VA.
The NWS is really liking this possible storm next weekend. Obviously long range here, but models are all seeing the same thing.
How much snow in Baltimore/DC?
Waaaaaaaaaaaay too early to know that. At this point, it's not even a sure thing that there will be a storm. In this time range, all they are looking at is that the models are showing that a system is possible. And that it has the potential to be a pretty nice sized system.

 
Are you talking about the

So there are three things to talk about for the East here.

1) Current system - This system is a combination of cold fronts that will slide through the area. There is a chance of some thunder with these showers through the mid Atlantic, while places in ME could see another foot of snow. These fronts will drop the temperatures as each one passes though. This system is actually happening, so the chances are 100% for this.

2) Early next week - The next system is still giving models headaches and fits. It is fairly certain that cold air will rush down from the Arctic into the east. Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees below average with this system. Models are starting to lean towards the system not being a big coastal storm, but we are still days away from this, so anything is possible. The key here is that there is plenty of cold air to work with. Thoughts currently are that New England could see some back end snow from this system as it swings by offshore. This is looking more like just slightly less than a 50/50 chance of happening.

3) Next weekend - Now this is very far out, so this is nothing more than a storm signal. This means that models are hinting at something, but it's merely something to watch and not an actual forecast. That said, one of the models has this a something possibly huge. So it's something to definitely watch. But that's all. There are also models that show nothing. The key here is that 10 days out, it's something to keep an eye on.
That third one is looking pretty interesting right now. Models are showing accumulating snow possibly along the I 95 corridor down through VA.
The NWS is really liking this possible storm next weekend. Obviously long range here, but models are all seeing the same thing.
How much snow in Baltimore/DC?
Waaaaaaaaaaaay too early to know that. At this point, it's not even a sure thing that there will be a storm. In this time range, all they are looking at is that the models are showing that a system is possible. And that it has the potential to be a pretty nice sized system.
Oh C'mon! I want to tell my daughter she's getting off school next week. I look like a hero/wizard when I predict storms before anyone else does.

 
Lots of changes happened over the weekend. The cold air is still coming but it's going to be mid week rather than early week. This is still pretty much a certainty. The storm that was looking really good for this weekend had an interesting weekend. Friday morning, every model had this system and they were all showing something pretty big. By the Friday night run, almost every single model lost it. They didn't just see it weaker, they actually had no system showing anymore. Very odd. By Saturday's runs, some of the models had it back, but some still had nothing. I'd say at this point, chance of it being anything is about 40%. But it will usher in cold temps and there is another low following right behind it.

That system will arrive around Sun-Tue of next week. And this system looks pretty good. The first system should cool temps down ahead of the second low and force the low up the east coast even more.

The way that the atmosphere is set up right now, most mets feel confident in saying there is a very good chance that the east coast could see a snow storm before November ends. Even if one misses early, the blocking pattern has us set up to see a couple of these chances one after another.

 
Just had to make a run to the post office and grab lunch from western, WI. It certainly is snowing and blowing. The roads will be very icy as it is that heavy snow that compacts on the roads and makes ice. Nothing we aren't used to but certainly things will be slowing down. I believe we are in the 13"+ area of the storm.

 
72 degrees and beautiful outside, but in the last 30 minutes the wind has just taken off and the clouds are coming in--the called for low is 19 tonight.

Edit--3 hours later temp is 25 degrees, snow and 40-50 mph--I love Colorado!!

 
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Before I post this, I just want to point out again that what I'm talking about in these posts are not actual forecasts. They are just observations of the current models. Things that are in models can change and are never a certainty.

I point that out mainly because of what the models are showing for next week. Time frame looks to be the 20th. The Euro is showing a HUGE snowstorm. Moisture from the GOM moving up the eastern seaboard with plenty of cold air. Very, very long range at this point, but this is definitely one to keep an eye on.

 
Before I post this, I just want to point out again that what I'm talking about in these posts are not actual forecasts. They are just observations of the current models. Things that are in models can change and are never a certainty.
As opposed to all of those flawless actual forecasts we always see?

;)

 

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