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Snowmageddon 2022 (3 Viewers)

TheIronSheik said:
Lots of changes happened over the weekend. The cold air is still coming but it's going to be mid week rather than early week. This is still pretty much a certainty. The storm that was looking really good for this weekend had an interesting weekend. Friday morning, every model had this system and they were all showing something pretty big. By the Friday night run, almost every single model lost it. They didn't just see it weaker, they actually had no system showing anymore. Very odd. By Saturday's runs, some of the models had it back, but some still had nothing. I'd say at this point, chance of it being anything is about 40%. But it will usher in cold temps and there is another low following right behind it.

That system will arrive around Sun-Tue of next week. And this system looks pretty good. The first system should cool temps down ahead of the second low and force the low up the east coast even more.

The way that the atmosphere is set up right now, most mets feel confident in saying there is a very good chance that the east coast could see a snow storm before November ends. Even if one misses early, the blocking pattern has us set up to see a couple of these chances one after another.
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This reads like the onslaught thread.

 
Otis said:
TheIronSheik said:
Lots of changes happened over the weekend. The cold air is still coming but it's going to be mid week rather than early week. This is still pretty much a certainty. The storm that was looking really good for this weekend had an interesting weekend. Friday morning, every model had this system and they were all showing something pretty big. By the Friday night run, almost every single model lost it. They didn't just see it weaker, they actually had no system showing anymore. Very odd. By Saturday's runs, some of the models had it back, but some still had nothing. I'd say at this point, chance of it being anything is about 40%. But it will usher in cold temps and there is another low following right behind it.

That system will arrive around Sun-Tue of next week. And this system looks pretty good. The first system should cool temps down ahead of the second low and force the low up the east coast even more.

The way that the atmosphere is set up right now, most mets feel confident in saying there is a very good chance that the east coast could see a snow storm before November ends. Even if one misses early, the blocking pattern has us set up to see a couple of these chances one after another.
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This reads like the onslaught thread.
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My bad. I was seriously trying to make it readable.

 
OK, east coast. The next 10 days could be a fun ride. Thursday night into Friday could be our first chance to see flakes. Little or no accumulation, but flakes nonetheless.

System moving in Sunday night is still all over the board on what to expect. Could be nothing. Could be some light snow. Not a lot of confidence in this one.

System moving in around the 20th is still looking promising. This one has the potential to be big.

 
Tonight should be SE PA's first snowfall. Not much in the way of accumulation but the snow could look pretty good at times. Depending on how far north and west of Philly you are, you could see the grass get a coating.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Tonight should be SE PA's first snowfall. Not much in the way of accumulation but the snow could look pretty good at times. Depending on how far north and west of Philly you are, you could see the grass get a coating.
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I was out hunting this afternoon and had no idea it was supposed to sleet/rain. God that stuff is cold. I'd rather it snow if it's going to be that cold.

 
JetMaxx said:
TheIronSheik said:
Tonight should be SE PA's first snowfall. Not much in the way of accumulation but the snow could look pretty good at times. Depending on how far north and west of Philly you are, you could see the grass get a coating.
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Got over 2" accumulation at my house
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Yeah, it definitely over performed. Wonder if that's a sign for the coming winter. We got just under an inch. But any snowfall in November is cool with me. It's just bonus snow. :thumbup:

 
TheIronSheik said:
JetMaxx said:
TheIronSheik said:
Tonight should be SE PA's first snowfall. Not much in the way of accumulation but the snow could look pretty good at times. Depending on how far north and west of Philly you are, you could see the grass get a coating.
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Got over 2" accumulation at my house
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Yeah, it definitely over performed. Wonder if that's a sign for the coming winter. We got just under an inch. But any snowfall in November is cool with me. It's just bonus snow. :thumbup:
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Absolutely. I live on a hill at about 800' in elevation and we tend to do a lot better than other areas in events like this.
 
Looks like the long range for the Northeast has calmed down a touch. The storm signal that was showing for the 20th-21st has been flip flopping a lot on the models over the weekend. Looks like high pressure could keep any moisture from moving up the coast. Not a definite, but the chances of anything hitting this week seem to be fading.

Current storm may bring some back end snow showers to a good amount of places, but nothing worth writing home about in my area. Overnight could be interesting for us, though, as the temps will drop down into the 20's and fail to rise above freezing all day tomorrow. With all the rain we're seeing today, could be a lot of icy spots (spots, not pots) on roadways.

And to add to the bitterly cold weather tomorrow, we'll also see strong wind gusts that will make it feel like the teens during the day. That's a frigid day for January, let alone November.

We move back to near normal temps for Thanksgiving to break the Arctic chill for a little bit, after that.

 
This cold front is bringing in tornado alerts with it across North Florida.

High today was supposed to push 80. Tomorrow night we have a hard freeze warning.

 
Yeah. This cold front is pretty powerful. Warm air out in front, very cold air behind it. Looks like Tornado Watch boxes are up from FL to NC.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Looks like the long range for the Northeast has calmed down a touch. The storm signal that was showing for the 20th-21st has been flip flopping a lot on the models over the weekend. Looks like high pressure could keep any moisture from moving up the coast. Not a definite, but the chances of anything hitting this week seem to be fading.

Current storm may bring some back end snow showers to a good amount of places, but nothing worth writing home about in my area. Overnight could be interesting for us, though, as the temps will drop down into the 20's and fail to rise above freezing all day tomorrow. With all the rain we're seeing today, could be a lot of icy spots (spots, not pots) on roadways.

And to add to the bitterly cold weather tomorrow, we'll also see strong wind gusts that will make it feel like the teens during the day. That's a frigid day for January, let alone November.

We move back to near normal temps for Thanksgiving to break the Arctic chill for a little bit, after that.
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Might be something for next week, Sunday into Monday. But the temperatures will be fairly warm, so right now it looks like if something hits us, it would be mostly rain.

 
eoMMan said:
JaxBill said:
This cold front is bringing in tornado alerts with it across North Florida.

High today was supposed to push 80. Tomorrow night we have a hard freeze warning.
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Saw that we just got Tornado Watch for our county in SW FL.
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Nice water spout over the bay earlier. We lost power for some unknown reason for about 2 hours.

A "little" blizzard for the upper midwest Sunday/Monday.

 
What's this crap I heard on the radio about Buffalo getting 5' of snow in some localized lake-effect blizzard? Ha Ha. Buffalo.

 
Storm signal showing up for Thanksgiving for the Northeast. Long way out, but interesting. Could see record low temps tonight, then back up in the mid 60's for Monday. Then possibly slamming back down low enough for snow by the end of the week. Perfect weather for getting sick in.

 
Lake Effect Snows are dumping upwards of 85 inches of snow in some areas, with several reports of thundersnow. If you've never heard thundersnow, it's an incredible sound. Thunder in cold weather can be twice as loud as thunder in warm weather.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Lake Effect Snows are dumping upwards of 85 inches of snow in some areas, with several reports of thundersnow. If you've never heard thundersnow, it's an incredible sound. Thunder in cold weather can be twice as loud as thunder in warm weather.
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I've heard it and it's awesome.

My favorite weather event. :thumbup:

 
Tom Servo said:
TheIronSheik said:
Lake Effect Snows are dumping upwards of 85 inches of snow in some areas, with several reports of thundersnow. If you've never heard thundersnow, it's an incredible sound. Thunder in cold weather can be twice as loud as thunder in warm weather.
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I've heard it and it's awesome.My favorite weather event. :thumbup:
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Happened in Mobile in 1995. Thunder is like a daily occurrence here but that was incredibly different.
 
Currently in Vegas not sure if I can make it home to Buffalo tonight. All Southwest flights are cancelled through 4:30 PM and pretty much everything has been cancelled all day.

Reports of 40+ inches in some southern suburbs. A buddy from a few blocks away from where I live took a pic outside....1 inch of snow, if that. Some of the northern suburbs have none. I'm supposed to be driving to Chicago tomorrow, if I can make it home tonight.....what nightmare.

 
Steve Tasker said:
Currently in Vegas not sure if I can make it home to Buffalo tonight. All Southwest flights are cancelled through 4:30 PM and pretty much everything has been cancelled all day.

Reports of 40+ inches in some southern suburbs. A buddy from a few blocks away from where I live took a pic outside....1 inch of snow, if that. Some of the northern suburbs have none. I'm supposed to be driving to Chicago tomorrow, if I can make it home tonight.....what nightmare.
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Good luck Pete, be safe. :thumbup:

 
Steve Tasker said:
Currently in Vegas not sure if I can make it home to Buffalo tonight. All Southwest flights are cancelled through 4:30 PM and pretty much everything has been cancelled all day.

Reports of 40+ inches in some southern suburbs. A buddy from a few blocks away from where I live took a pic outside....1 inch of snow, if that. Some of the northern suburbs have none. I'm supposed to be driving to Chicago tomorrow, if I can make it home tonight.....what nightmare.
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Stuck in Vegas due to a Buffalo snowstorm. Seems almost as cruel as my former boss who was stuck on Kauai due to 9/11.

 
Steve Tasker said:
Currently in Vegas not sure if I can make it home to Buffalo tonight. All Southwest flights are cancelled through 4:30 PM and pretty much everything has been cancelled all day.

Reports of 40+ inches in some southern suburbs. A buddy from a few blocks away from where I live took a pic outside....1 inch of snow, if that. Some of the northern suburbs have none. I'm supposed to be driving to Chicago tomorrow, if I can make it home tonight.....what nightmare.
Click to expand...
I'm in downtown Buffalo working - and it isn't bad except for the howling wind that will knock you on your feet if you don't pay attention. They were talking about the band coming back north tonight and then the downtown and north will get a foot tonight. Customer I was at had many people missing today.

Enjoy Vegas

 
ffldrew said:
Steve Tasker said:
Currently in Vegas not sure if I can make it home to Buffalo tonight. All Southwest flights are cancelled through 4:30 PM and pretty much everything has been cancelled all day.

Reports of 40+ inches in some southern suburbs. A buddy from a few blocks away from where I live took a pic outside....1 inch of snow, if that. Some of the northern suburbs have none. I'm supposed to be driving to Chicago tomorrow, if I can make it home tonight.....what nightmare.
Click to expand...
I'm in downtown Buffalo working - and it isn't bad except for the howling wind that will knock you on your feet if you don't pay attention. They were talking about the band coming back north tonight and then the downtown and north will get a foot tonight. Customer I was at had many people missing today.

Enjoy Vegas
Click to expand...
The band is apparently about 15 miles wide. If you're in that band, you can be seeing around 70 to 80 inches of snow. If you are outside of that band, you can be seeing around 1 to 3 inches of snow. It is insane.

 
TheIronSheik said:
ffldrew said:
Steve Tasker said:
Currently in Vegas not sure if I can make it home to Buffalo tonight. All Southwest flights are cancelled through 4:30 PM and pretty much everything has been cancelled all day.

Reports of 40+ inches in some southern suburbs. A buddy from a few blocks away from where I live took a pic outside....1 inch of snow, if that. Some of the northern suburbs have none. I'm supposed to be driving to Chicago tomorrow, if I can make it home tonight.....what nightmare.
Click to expand...
I'm in downtown Buffalo working - and it isn't bad except for the howling wind that will knock you on your feet if you don't pay attention. They were talking about the band coming back north tonight and then the downtown and north will get a foot tonight. Customer I was at had many people missing today.

Enjoy Vegas
Click to expand...
The band is apparently about 15 miles wide. If you're in that band, you can be seeing around 70 to 80 inches of snow. If you are outside of that band, you can be seeing around 1 to 3 inches of snow. It is insane.
Click to expand...
Like whoa

 
TheIronSheik said:
ffldrew said:
Steve Tasker said:
Currently in Vegas not sure if I can make it home to Buffalo tonight. All Southwest flights are cancelled through 4:30 PM and pretty much everything has been cancelled all day.

Reports of 40+ inches in some southern suburbs. A buddy from a few blocks away from where I live took a pic outside....1 inch of snow, if that. Some of the northern suburbs have none. I'm supposed to be driving to Chicago tomorrow, if I can make it home tonight.....what nightmare.
Click to expand...
I'm in downtown Buffalo working - and it isn't bad except for the howling wind that will knock you on your feet if you don't pay attention. They were talking about the band coming back north tonight and then the downtown and north will get a foot tonight. Customer I was at had many people missing today.

Enjoy Vegas
Click to expand...
The band is apparently about 15 miles wide. If you're in that band, you can be seeing around 70 to 80 inches of snow. If you are outside of that band, you can be seeing around 1 to 3 inches of snow. It is insane.
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:shock: Unreal.

 
TheIronSheik said:
ffldrew said:
Steve Tasker said:
Currently in Vegas not sure if I can make it home to Buffalo tonight. All Southwest flights are cancelled through 4:30 PM and pretty much everything has been cancelled all day.

Reports of 40+ inches in some southern suburbs. A buddy from a few blocks away from where I live took a pic outside....1 inch of snow, if that. Some of the northern suburbs have none. I'm supposed to be driving to Chicago tomorrow, if I can make it home tonight.....what nightmare.
Click to expand...
I'm in downtown Buffalo working - and it isn't bad except for the howling wind that will knock you on your feet if you don't pay attention. They were talking about the band coming back north tonight and then the downtown and north will get a foot tonight. Customer I was at had many people missing today.

Enjoy Vegas
Click to expand...
The band is apparently about 15 miles wide. If you're in that band, you can be seeing around 70 to 80 inches of snow. If you are outside of that band, you can be seeing around 1 to 3 inches of snow. It is insane.
Click to expand...
I can't even imagine 6 feet of snow. That's completely insane.

 
Snow coming down at a rate of 4 to 5 inches an hour!

DISCUSSION...A STEADY LAKE-EFFECT SNOW BAND PERSISTS ALONG THE
LONG-AXIS ORIENTATION OF LAKE ERIE...INTO SUBURBAN AREAS IMMEDIATELY
S OF THE NEARLY PERFECT ALONG-LAKE FETCH AND WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR
BELOW 700 MB WILL MAINTAIN THE STRONG SNOW BAND FOR SEVERAL MORE
HOURS.VERY LARGE AIR-LAKE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES ARE DRIVING
INTENSE CONVECTIVE MIXING WITHIN THE LAKE PLUME...AS EVIDENCED BY
THE 30-40 KT WNW-NW SURFACE WINDS AND STRONG CONVERGENCE INTO THE
BAND OVER THE NE PART OF LAKE ERIE. THERMAL PROFILES ARE MOST
FAVORABLE FOR THE DEEPEST CONVECTION NOW /AS EVIDENCED BY A FEW
LIGHTNING FLASHES IN THE PAST HOUR/...AND PROFILES SHOULD REMAIN
FAVORABLE THIS AFTERNOON. NEAR OR AFTER 00Z...EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS
WILL LOWER AND THE DEPTH OF THE LAKE BAND WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH.....COINCIDENT WITH VEERING OF THE MIDLEVEL FLOW AND A
RESULTANT SWD SHIFT OF THE BAND AS A MIDLEVEL TROUGH PROGRESSES E OF
LAKE ERIE. THUS...THE VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 4-6 HOURS IMMEDIATELY S OF BUF WHERE
EXCEPTIONAL SNOW TOTALS NEAR 4 FEET HAVE ALREADY BEEN OBSERVED.
Click to expand...
 
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