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Snowmageddon 2022 (1 Viewer)

I can't wait to see what happens when the "HOLY #### I NEED ALL THE BREAD AND MILK" crowd mixes with the "Nah, I still have time to buy stuff for Thanksgiving" crowd today and tomorrow.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
TheIronSheik said:
TheIronSheik said:
Storm signal showing up for Thanksgiving for the Northeast. Long way out, but interesting. Could see record low temps tonight, then back up in the mid 60's for Monday. Then possibly slamming back down low enough for snow by the end of the week. Perfect weather for getting sick in.
Click to expand...
As others have talked about in here over the weekend, models have all come around to seeing this storm this week. On Saturday, 2 of the 3 major models began seeing a major storm while the third model began trending towards a big storm. By Sunday, all of them were on board.

Of the 3 major models, the most aggressive model for snowfall was the Euro. It was also the model that saw this storm first. This is important because the Euro is the best at handling Nor'easters, which is what this storm will become. So while the other two models have a storm, their snow totals are quite smaller, but still significant.

In my area, I expect to see snow start falling around 8 am and ending around midnight. At some point during the day, some sleet could mix in, but I don't think we'll see a changeover to all rain at any point. I'm saying the we probably see between 4 to 8 inches, and I'm leaning more towards the higher end of that.

One thing I want to address, as many of my friends asked me about this over the weekend: It does not matter how warm it is today. Some people have said that even if it snows, it won't stick to the pavement and they couldn't be more dead wrong. While it is true that the temps will be quite warm today, they have been much colder for much longer. One day of warm temperatures will not affect the frozen ground temps. Also, heavy snow rates can accumulate on very warm surfaces. These two things will mean that today's temps will have no bearing on Wednesday's snowfall. As a reference, the Halloween storm in 2011 was much earlier in the year and two days before it snowed, the temps were in the 70's. Trust me: A late November storm can and will stick to the roads.
Click to expand...
Sorry for the truncated post, doing too many things at once. Temps today don't matter by themselves. With temps forecast in PA to be in the mid to upper 30s on Wed. accumulation on the roads shouldn't be significant. They will be a sloppy mess though.

 
It's important to point out that this thing could still outperform the models. The last I saw (I'm busy this morning at work so I haven't had time to really go over anything weather related) was that the Euro had my area with 8 to 14 inches, the GFS had 4 to 6 inches and the Canadian model was still around 4 inches. While I think that we'll probably see around 8 inches of snow, higher amounts are definitely possible. The NWS has outlined the areas that have the best chance to see a foot or more of snow in this graphic.

Should know more this evening, but this could be a very potent storm.

 
3C said:
TheIronSheik said:
TheIronSheik said:
Storm signal showing up for Thanksgiving for the Northeast. Long way out, but interesting. Could see record low temps tonight, then back up in the mid 60's for Monday. Then possibly slamming back down low enough for snow by the end of the week. Perfect weather for getting sick in.
Click to expand...
As others have talked about in here over the weekend, models have all come around to seeing this storm this week. On Saturday, 2 of the 3 major models began seeing a major storm while the third model began trending towards a big storm. By Sunday, all of them were on board.

Of the 3 major models, the most aggressive model for snowfall was the Euro. It was also the model that saw this storm first. This is important because the Euro is the best at handling Nor'easters, which is what this storm will become. So while the other two models have a storm, their snow totals are quite smaller, but still significant.

In my area, I expect to see snow start falling around 8 am and ending around midnight. At some point during the day, some sleet could mix in, but I don't think we'll see a changeover to all rain at any point. I'm saying the we probably see between 4 to 8 inches, and I'm leaning more towards the higher end of that.

One thing I want to address, as many of my friends asked me about this over the weekend: It does not matter how warm it is today. Some people have said that even if it snows, it won't stick to the pavement and they couldn't be more dead wrong. While it is true that the temps will be quite warm today, they have been much colder for much longer. One day of warm temperatures will not affect the frozen ground temps. Also, heavy snow rates can accumulate on very warm surfaces. These two things will mean that today's temps will have no bearing on Wednesday's snowfall. As a reference, the Halloween storm in 2011 was much earlier in the year and two days before it snowed, the temps were in the 70's. Trust me: A late November storm can and will stick to the roads.
Click to expand...
Sorry for the truncated post, doing too many things at once. Temps today don't matter by themselves. With temps forecast in PA to be in the mid to upper 30s on Wed. accumulation on the roads shouldn't be significant. They will be a sloppy mess though.
Click to expand...
You're wrong.

 
TheIronSheik said:
TheIronSheik said:
Storm signal showing up for Thanksgiving for the Northeast. Long way out, but interesting. Could see record low temps tonight, then back up in the mid 60's for Monday. Then possibly slamming back down low enough for snow by the end of the week. Perfect weather for getting sick in.
Click to expand...
As others have talked about in here over the weekend, models have all come around to seeing this storm this week. On Saturday, 2 of the 3 major models began seeing a major storm while the third model began trending towards a big storm. By Sunday, all of them were on board.

Of the 3 major models, the most aggressive model for snowfall was the Euro. It was also the model that saw this storm first. This is important because the Euro is the best at handling Nor'easters, which is what this storm will become. So while the other two models have a storm, their snow totals are quite smaller, but still significant.

In my area, I expect to see snow start falling around 8 am and ending around midnight. At some point during the day, some sleet could mix in, but I don't think we'll see a changeover to all rain at any point. I'm saying the we probably see between 4 to 8 inches, and I'm leaning more towards the higher end of that.

One thing I want to address, as many of my friends asked me about this over the weekend: It does not matter how warm it is today. Some people have said that even if it snows, it won't stick to the pavement and they couldn't be more dead wrong. While it is true that the temps will be quite warm today, they have been much colder for much longer. One day of warm temperatures will not affect the frozen ground temps. Also, heavy snow rates can accumulate on very warm surfaces. These two things will mean that today's temps will have no bearing on Wednesday's snowfall. As a reference, the Halloween storm in 2011 was much earlier in the year and two days before it snowed, the temps were in the 70's. Trust me: A late November storm can and will stick to the roads.
Click to expand...
Honestly, why do we care about Grecian snow? ;)

 
TheIronSheik said:
3C said:
TheIronSheik said:
TheIronSheik said:
Storm signal showing up for Thanksgiving for the Northeast. Long way out, but interesting. Could see record low temps tonight, then back up in the mid 60's for Monday. Then possibly slamming back down low enough for snow by the end of the week. Perfect weather for getting sick in.
Click to expand...
As others have talked about in here over the weekend, models have all come around to seeing this storm this week. On Saturday, 2 of the 3 major models began seeing a major storm while the third model began trending towards a big storm. By Sunday, all of them were on board.

Of the 3 major models, the most aggressive model for snowfall was the Euro. It was also the model that saw this storm first. This is important because the Euro is the best at handling Nor'easters, which is what this storm will become. So while the other two models have a storm, their snow totals are quite smaller, but still significant.

In my area, I expect to see snow start falling around 8 am and ending around midnight. At some point during the day, some sleet could mix in, but I don't think we'll see a changeover to all rain at any point. I'm saying the we probably see between 4 to 8 inches, and I'm leaning more towards the higher end of that.

One thing I want to address, as many of my friends asked me about this over the weekend: It does not matter how warm it is today. Some people have said that even if it snows, it won't stick to the pavement and they couldn't be more dead wrong. While it is true that the temps will be quite warm today, they have been much colder for much longer. One day of warm temperatures will not affect the frozen ground temps. Also, heavy snow rates can accumulate on very warm surfaces. These two things will mean that today's temps will have no bearing on Wednesday's snowfall. As a reference, the Halloween storm in 2011 was much earlier in the year and two days before it snowed, the temps were in the 70's. Trust me: A late November storm can and will stick to the roads.
Click to expand...
Sorry for the truncated post, doing too many things at once. Temps today don't matter by themselves. With temps forecast in PA to be in the mid to upper 30s on Wed. accumulation on the roads shouldn't be significant. They will be a sloppy mess though.
Click to expand...
You're wrong.
Click to expand...
Wouldn't be the first time nor the last.

 
3C said:
TheIronSheik said:
3C said:
TheIronSheik said:
TheIronSheik said:
Storm signal showing up for Thanksgiving for the Northeast. Long way out, but interesting. Could see record low temps tonight, then back up in the mid 60's for Monday. Then possibly slamming back down low enough for snow by the end of the week. Perfect weather for getting sick in.
Click to expand...
As others have talked about in here over the weekend, models have all come around to seeing this storm this week. On Saturday, 2 of the 3 major models began seeing a major storm while the third model began trending towards a big storm. By Sunday, all of them were on board.

Of the 3 major models, the most aggressive model for snowfall was the Euro. It was also the model that saw this storm first. This is important because the Euro is the best at handling Nor'easters, which is what this storm will become. So while the other two models have a storm, their snow totals are quite smaller, but still significant.

In my area, I expect to see snow start falling around 8 am and ending around midnight. At some point during the day, some sleet could mix in, but I don't think we'll see a changeover to all rain at any point. I'm saying the we probably see between 4 to 8 inches, and I'm leaning more towards the higher end of that.

One thing I want to address, as many of my friends asked me about this over the weekend: It does not matter how warm it is today. Some people have said that even if it snows, it won't stick to the pavement and they couldn't be more dead wrong. While it is true that the temps will be quite warm today, they have been much colder for much longer. One day of warm temperatures will not affect the frozen ground temps. Also, heavy snow rates can accumulate on very warm surfaces. These two things will mean that today's temps will have no bearing on Wednesday's snowfall. As a reference, the Halloween storm in 2011 was much earlier in the year and two days before it snowed, the temps were in the 70's. Trust me: A late November storm can and will stick to the roads.
Click to expand...
Sorry for the truncated post, doing too many things at once. Temps today don't matter by themselves. With temps forecast in PA to be in the mid to upper 30s on Wed. accumulation on the roads shouldn't be significant. They will be a sloppy mess though.
Click to expand...
You're wrong.
Click to expand...
Wouldn't be the first time nor the last.
Click to expand...
I'm just telling you that I explained exactly why it wouldn't have trouble accumulating on roads in the post you quoted.

 
NWS in Mt. Holly still has my area down for about 2 inches. :lol: I expect them to come more on board with me after that last Euro run.

 
Swing 51 said:
TheIronSheik said:
NWS in Mt. Holly still has my area down for about 2 inches. :lol: I expect them to come more on board with me after that last Euro run.
Click to expand...
The D.C. snow forecast: 0 to 14 inches
Click to expand...
Yes these guys have the best job ever!
Click to expand...
There's several reasons for that. The main reason being that these types of storms are hard to predict. Why? Because a shift in the low just a couple miles can mean a place goes from nothing to a foot. That, and a lot of other factors, need to be predicted perfectly, or there can be huge shifts in totals. At this point (48 hours out) there is still plenty of time for the low to shift in any direction. So they're not saying DC is GOING to get 0 to 14 inches. They're saying at this point, it could get anywhere between that. As we get closer, those numbers will close up.

 
Billy Bats said:
What's the Philly area looking like Sheik? You in south jersey?
Click to expand...
I'm out in Chester county. Philly is a tough call right now because of where it is. If you would have asked yesterday, I would've thought it wasn't going to be much for Philly. Maybe about 2 to 4 inches. But the low seems to be trending east. I still don't think Philly will see totals quite as high as out west, but now it may be all snow and no rain. Also, if you remember last year's Snow Bowl, Philly got hit harder than any other area because of forcing and bands setting up over Philly. This has the potential for something like that again (at this time).

I think by tonight we'll know a little better, but it's still going to be a tough one to call.

 
Sorry...late to the party. Long weekend as we started sleep training the 5-month old. Good news is he slept 9 hours last night. Bad news is other than that, I got nothing done this weekend.

We're planning to drive from home (Central NJ) to my parents in VA (Winchester, an hour west of DC) tomorrow night. We usually drive down the I-81 corridor. I'm working from home Tuesday, so I guess I could swing driving earlier if needed. From a weather standpoint, when is this thing coming? I'd rather not drive in the snow...again.

 
Fat Nick said:
Sorry...late to the party. Long weekend as we started sleep training the 5-month old. Good news is he slept 9 hours last night. Bad news is other than that, I got nothing done this weekend.

We're planning to drive from home (Central NJ) to my parents in VA (Winchester, an hour west of DC) tomorrow night. We usually drive down the I-81 corridor. I'm working from home Tuesday, so I guess I could swing driving earlier if needed. From a weather standpoint, when is this thing coming? I'd rather not drive in the snow...again.
Click to expand...
Wednesday morning.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Fat Nick said:
Sorry...late to the party. Long weekend as we started sleep training the 5-month old. Good news is he slept 9 hours last night. Bad news is other than that, I got nothing done this weekend.

We're planning to drive from home (Central NJ) to my parents in VA (Winchester, an hour west of DC) tomorrow night. We usually drive down the I-81 corridor. I'm working from home Tuesday, so I guess I could swing driving earlier if needed. From a weather standpoint, when is this thing coming? I'd rather not drive in the snow...again.
Click to expand...
Wednesday morning.
Click to expand...
Awesome. Thanks Sheik. It can snow all it wants once we're there.

 
I'm seeing some forecasts starting to come in with pretty low amounts. Not sure why. Everything I can see leads me to believe we will see fairly significant snowfall totals.

 
Fat Nick said:
TheIronSheik said:
Fat Nick said:
Sorry...late to the party. Long weekend as we started sleep training the 5-month old. Good news is he slept 9 hours last night. Bad news is other than that, I got nothing done this weekend.

We're planning to drive from home (Central NJ) to my parents in VA (Winchester, an hour west of DC) tomorrow night. We usually drive down the I-81 corridor. I'm working from home Tuesday, so I guess I could swing driving earlier if needed. From a weather standpoint, when is this thing coming? I'd rather not drive in the snow...again.
Click to expand...
Wednesday morning.
Click to expand...
Awesome. Thanks Sheik. It can snow all it wants once we're there.
Click to expand...
I haven't really looked at the forecast for down in VA, but I don't think the snow is supposed to start until about rush hour Wednesday morning. I think if you leave Tuesday night, you'll be in the clear.

 
From Mt. Holly:

THE STORM...

OUR RECOMMENDATION: TO REACH YOUR HOLIDAY DESTINATION ON TIME WITH
PROBABLY A MINIMUM OF WEATHER RELATED TRAVEL DELAYS...AND ESPECIALLY
TRAVELING WEST OF I-95 INTO NORTHWEST NJ...EASTERN PA...TRAVEL SHOULD
BE COMPLETED BY 10 AM WEDNESDAY.

THE WATCH WILL BE EXPANDED SOUTHWARD TO JUST NW OF I-95 IN THE 330 PM.
ANY FURTHER CHANGE AFTER THIS WRITING IS RELATED TO A SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGE IN THE EVENTUAL 12Z ECMWF RECEIPT.
Click to expand...
 
DCThunder said:
Here is the latest for the DC metro area from the Captial Weather Gang at the WaPo:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/11/24/wednesday-winter-storm-a-little-wet-snow-favored-inside-beltway-increasing-amounts-north-and-west/
Click to expand...
Nice. Right smack in the middle of the 3-6" band.

Between this and Sheik's comment on timing, I'm happy. I really didn't want to drive during the day and be forced to leave earlier. I hate driving on I-81 because I go road rage and want to kill people, so we tend to drive late night...much easier as the baby sleeps the whole way too.

 
NWS just issued the Winter Storm Watch for our area. In the watch they say 4 to 8 inches. They still have it starting as rain, then quickly turning to snow. I'm not sold on this yet. We'll see how it pans out.

 
Fat Nick said:
TheIronSheik said:
Fat Nick said:
Sorry...late to the party. Long weekend as we started sleep training the 5-month old. Good news is he slept 9 hours last night. Bad news is other than that, I got nothing done this weekend.

We're planning to drive from home (Central NJ) to my parents in VA (Winchester, an hour west of DC) tomorrow night. We usually drive down the I-81 corridor. I'm working from home Tuesday, so I guess I could swing driving earlier if needed. From a weather standpoint, when is this thing coming? I'd rather not drive in the snow...again.
Click to expand...
Wednesday morning.
Click to expand...
Awesome. Thanks Sheik. It can snow all it wants once we're there.
Click to expand...
For VA, that area will see the most snow. Enjoy!

 
Interesting to note that the NWS has made a point to say that this snow will be very heavy. And that all it will take is snow accumulating 4 inches or more to bring down limbs and power lines. In other words, there is a significant threat for power outages that could last well into the holiday weekend.

 
TheIronSheik said:
TheIronSheik said:
Gamma1210 said:
Sheik, what is the outlook for NYC? Any chance this thing holds off until later in the day Wednesday?
Click to expand...
Timing is still being worked out. I'm not totally familiar with the NYC area, but this is the map from the NWS.
Click to expand...
I did some quick checking off the timing for NYC and it looks like late morning is what they're thinking right now. Maybe around 10 am.
Click to expand...
Thanks, that sucks. I'll be out there all day inflating the balloons for Macy's. Was hoping it would hold off.

 
TheIronSheik said:
Interesting to note that the NWS has made a point to say that this snow will be very heavy. And that all it will take is snow accumulating 4 inches or more to bring down limbs and power lines. In other words, there is a significant threat for power outages that could last well into the holiday weekend.
Click to expand...
Best of luck to all you guys. That I won't miss. Already had one power outage this month. Fortunately wasn't long and it wasn't too cold.

 
Cool Sheik. Channel 6 just said we're right on the snow/sleet line and are just calling for maybe 1-3 in the city with most of it being a lehigh valley event.

 
Just from looking quickly at the weather data this morning, it appears that the storm is still moving faster than expected. My area will probably see snow start between 5 and 7 am. (Timing is tough to predict, so don't take this as a guarantee.) I'm still thinking that we get around 6 to 9 inches after it's all said and done around 10 pm.

 
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