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Snowmageddon 2022 (1 Viewer)

Sheik, give me some timing of when its gonna hit the philly area on Friday night.
That's a tough one to nail down just yet. The best range I can really give is somewhere between 5pm and midnight, with somewhere in the middle being the most likely. The problem still is that at this current time, the pieces of energy are just starting to come together. So it's not even really a storm yet. Almost, but still coming together. I would think that by later this afternoon, models will start to get a better idea of timing.

 
The potential flooding is a big issue for the Jersey shore all the way up to where I am in Hoboken. A lot of those shore towns have barely recovered, if at all, from Sandy and there are people who have just recently gotten their houses rebuilt, again if at all. Do everyone a favor and think of those people as you cheer for your 2 feet of snow, you savages.
I understand what you're saying, but cheering for snow has no effect on whether it hits or doesn't.
And I've heard this response before. Cheering for sports teams doesn't have an effect on whether they win or not, and yet people do. There's a reason they do.So let's play this out...you're cheering for a bunch of snow, for what exactly? When it materializes, what do you do? Do you get frustrated by all the shoveling, being forced inside, not being able to park on the street? Or do you get some level of enjoyment out of it?
Because people enjoy the sight of snow, going out and sledding or building a snowman with their family. I for one, very much look forward to a good storm and that doesn't mean that I want people, who chose to live in areas of risk, to suffer the consequences related to severe weather. I feel for them but am still entitled to enjoy a solid snowstorm.
Heartless *******....

 
So I started my prepping last night - considering multiple models show 24+ inches in my area. I found the shovels, called a neighbor with a skid loader to find out how much it would be to clear my driveway ($150?!?!?!Juan :rant: ), and lugged my generator up my back yard hill from my shed to my back deck. That last one was a huge pain in the butt, as this thing is heavy as you know what, especially when it has a full tank of fuel. I finally got it up on the deck and placed it where I wanted it. I knew after doing all this, all I'd really accomplished is guaranteeing that we won't lose power at all during this event.

I then wanted to be sure it didn't have any issues, so I attempted to start it up. Turned the key, pulled the choke, opened the fuel line, and gave it a pull on the pull start. Normally she starts right up. Nothing. Tried again, still nothing. 50 more pulls with the choke in different positions - nothing. I pulled the spark plug, and confirmed it was firing when pulling on the pull start. Shocked myself :rant: . Gave up on it thinking I had flooded it. Tried again this morning, and on the third pull, the rope of the pull start snapped. I've now guaranteed that the entire electrical grid of the mid Atlantic will be down by 8 PM Friday. Sorry guys.
Change the oil!
Likely will, to a different weight better suited for the cold.
Did you try a little spray of starting fluid?
I didn't, but I will

 
The latest NAM holds strong with its totals. And the thing to remember with the NAM is that it is a short range model. So it's just starting to enter its wheelhouse range. It wouldn't surprise me if those totals are the new trend.
What does the latest NAM look like for Southern MD? Lots of differing ranges this morning. Seen anywhere from 1" to 18".
I know I've asked this before and I apologize for asking again but: What exactly is S MD? It's like the only state that if you say "south" it could be all over the place. E of the CBay, 12 and under. W of the CBay, 1 to 3 feet. Out west, about a foot.

 
The potential flooding is a big issue for the Jersey shore all the way up to where I am in Hoboken. A lot of those shore towns have barely recovered, if at all, from Sandy and there are people who have just recently gotten their houses rebuilt, again if at all. Do everyone a favor and think of those people as you cheer for your 2 feet of snow, you savages.
I understand what you're saying, but cheering for snow has no effect on whether it hits or doesn't.
And I've heard this response before. Cheering for sports teams doesn't have an effect on whether they win or not, and yet people do. There's a reason they do.So let's play this out...you're cheering for a bunch of snow, for what exactly? When it materializes, what do you do? Do you get frustrated by all the shoveling, being forced inside, not being able to park on the street? Or do you get some level of enjoyment out of it?
Because people enjoy the sight of snow, going out and sledding or building a snowman with their family. I for one, very much look forward to a good storm and that doesn't mean that I want people, who chose to live in areas of risk, to suffer the consequences related to severe weather. I feel for them but am still entitled to enjoy a solid snowstorm.
Heartless *******....
I know terrible, right?

 
The worst thing about this to me is the prime shoveling times will be during the championship games on Sunday afternoon.

 
The potential flooding is a big issue for the Jersey shore all the way up to where I am in Hoboken. A lot of those shore towns have barely recovered, if at all, from Sandy and there are people who have just recently gotten their houses rebuilt, again if at all. Do everyone a favor and think of those people as you cheer for your 2 feet of snow, you savages.
I understand what you're saying, but cheering for snow has no effect on whether it hits or doesn't.
And I've heard this response before. Cheering for sports teams doesn't have an effect on whether they win or not, and yet people do. There's a reason they do.

So let's play this out...you're cheering for a bunch of snow, for what exactly? When it materializes, what do you do? Do you get frustrated by all the shoveling, being forced inside, not being able to park on the street? Or do you get some level of enjoyment out of it?
who invited Debbie downer to the snowball fight?

 
The worst thing about this to me is the prime shoveling times will be during the championship games on Sunday afternoon.
I know you're making a joke, but I'd suggest going out and shoveling at least 3 or 4 times during the storm. It'll be much easier to shovel 10 inches 3 times than 30 inches 1 time. YWIA

 
The potential flooding is a big issue for the Jersey shore all the way up to where I am in Hoboken. A lot of those shore towns have barely recovered, if at all, from Sandy and there are people who have just recently gotten their houses rebuilt, again if at all. Do everyone a favor and think of those people as you cheer for your 2 feet of snow, you savages.
I understand what you're saying, but cheering for snow has no effect on whether it hits or doesn't.
And I've heard this response before. Cheering for sports teams doesn't have an effect on whether they win or not, and yet people do. There's a reason they do.

So let's play this out...you're cheering for a bunch of snow, for what exactly? When it materializes, what do you do? Do you get frustrated by all the shoveling, being forced inside, not being able to park on the street? Or do you get some level of enjoyment out of it?
who invited Debbie downer to the snowball fight?
Just think of all those starving children in China who don't even HAVE snow....

 
The potential flooding is a big issue for the Jersey shore all the way up to where I am in Hoboken. A lot of those shore towns have barely recovered, if at all, from Sandy and there are people who have just recently gotten their houses rebuilt, again if at all. Do everyone a favor and think of those people as you cheer for your 2 feet of snow, you savages.
I understand what you're saying, but cheering for snow has no effect on whether it hits or doesn't.
And I've heard this response before. Cheering for sports teams doesn't have an effect on whether they win or not, and yet people do. There's a reason they do.So let's play this out...you're cheering for a bunch of snow, for what exactly? When it materializes, what do you do? Do you get frustrated by all the shoveling, being forced inside, not being able to park on the street? Or do you get some level of enjoyment out of it?
who invited Debbie downer to the snowball fight?
You gotta think he's just fishing for something. No one could really have their panties up in a bunch over people enjoying snow, right?

 
Just got off a conference call about the storm from a First Energy perspective (West Penn Power, Jersey Central, Met-Ed, Potomac Edison). Plans are supposed to come out later today on staging crews - at least initially - in the McConnelsburg, PA area. Certainly, crews from the other FE companies such as Ohio Edison, Toledo Edison, and Cleveland Electric Illuminating will be sending crews.
Yikes. So if this thing ends up hitting 100 miles further west than anticipated (not sure how likely that is at this point), we're going to be without power and crew to fix it.
Generally, FE will ramp up their involvement. They employ weather services to gauge the impact of the storms on facilities. We generally don't empty out everyone and flood the affected area.

Were I to guess, they'll start by asking for 15-25% of the linemen to go, and ramp up from there as needed. In a small center like ours, we end up getting everyone sent away sometimes. However, we have other nearby centers cover for us.

Right now, I would say you're safe as far as physical worker coverage.

 
The latest NAM holds strong with its totals. And the thing to remember with the NAM is that it is a short range model. So it's just starting to enter its wheelhouse range. It wouldn't surprise me if those totals are the new trend.
post the NAM porn please
Stolen image
:unsure:

Wait. What?

I'm only supposed to be getting 3-6". EPAWA would never lie to me.
haha, suck it PA hillbilly

 
The potential flooding is a big issue for the Jersey shore all the way up to where I am in Hoboken. A lot of those shore towns have barely recovered, if at all, from Sandy and there are people who have just recently gotten their houses rebuilt, again if at all. Do everyone a favor and think of those people as you cheer for your 2 feet of snow, you savages.
I understand what you're saying, but cheering for snow has no effect on whether it hits or doesn't.
And I've heard this response before. Cheering for sports teams doesn't have an effect on whether they win or not, and yet people do. There's a reason they do.So let's play this out...you're cheering for a bunch of snow, for what exactly? When it materializes, what do you do? Do you get frustrated by all the shoveling, being forced inside, not being able to park on the street? Or do you get some level of enjoyment out of it?
Because people enjoy the sight of snow, going out and sledding or building a snowman with their family. I for one, very much look forward to a good storm and that doesn't mean that I want people, who chose to live in areas of risk, to suffer the consequences related to severe weather. I feel for them but am still entitled to enjoy a solid snowstorm.
I'm just waiting for the storm so I can watch WUSA over the internet and their storm coverage. :shrug:

 
The latest NAM holds strong with its totals. And the thing to remember with the NAM is that it is a short range model. So it's just starting to enter its wheelhouse range. It wouldn't surprise me if those totals are the new trend.
What does the latest NAM look like for Southern MD? Lots of differing ranges this morning. Seen anywhere from 1" to 18".
I know I've asked this before and I apologize for asking again but: What exactly is S MD? It's like the only state that if you say "south" it could be all over the place. E of the CBay, 12 and under. W of the CBay, 1 to 3 feet. Out west, about a foot.
Lol, I'm in St Mary's County, which is west of the Bay

 
Can anyone tell me when businesses in North Jersey will start shutting down? Today? Tomorrow? Not until Saturday? Once that happens, I can pretty much kick ####ing back for the rest of the day.

 
Blizzard Watches just went up for Philly and surrounding areas. My county is split in two and only the other half got the BW so far.

 
The latest NAM holds strong with its totals. And the thing to remember with the NAM is that it is a short range model. So it's just starting to enter its wheelhouse range. It wouldn't surprise me if those totals are the new trend.
post the NAM porn please
Stolen image
So if I'm in that little white dot in the middle, is that like being in the eye of a hurricane where it will be nice and pleasant this whole time?

 
The latest NAM holds strong with its totals. And the thing to remember with the NAM is that it is a short range model. So it's just starting to enter its wheelhouse range. It wouldn't surprise me if those totals are the new trend.
post the NAM porn please
Stolen image
As far as I can tell (image is small) I'm in the whitish area just west of DC. I read that as past the purples into the 48 inch range.

WOW!!!

 
I plan on burning a ton of calories shoveling snow multiple times Saturday. I plan on replenishing those calories with booze, pizza, chips, and dip Saturday and Sunday.

Win/win.

 
Can anyone tell me when businesses in North Jersey will start shutting down? Today? Tomorrow? Not until Saturday? Once that happens, I can pretty much kick ####ing back for the rest of the day.
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY

Timing: The first snowflakes are expected to start falling about 6 a.m. Saturday, and the snow is expected to become moderate to heavy fairly quickly, according to the weather service. Snow will continue throughout the day on Saturday and come to an end by Sunday afternoon.

Snowfall projection: 8 to 12 inches in Warren, Sussex and Morris counties, and also 8 to 12 inches in Bergen, Passaic, Essex, Hudson and Union counties. Essex, Hudson and Union counties are now under a blizzard watch, along with New York City, Staten Island and Long Island.

Winds: Sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph are expected during most of the day on Saturday in areas further west, with gusts up to 30 mph. In the areas under the blizzard watch, sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph are possible, and gusts could reach as high as 50 mph.

Threats: Heavy accumulation of snow on roads, dangerous driving conditions —especially in the blizzard watch area — and possible power outages.

 
The latest NAM holds strong with its totals. And the thing to remember with the NAM is that it is a short range model. So it's just starting to enter its wheelhouse range. It wouldn't surprise me if those totals are the new trend.
post the NAM porn please
Stolen image
As far as I can tell (image is small) I'm in the whitish area just west of DC. I read that as past the purples into the 48 inch range.

WOW!!!
Please don't believe the NAM maps. Figure 2" of liquid precip at 10:1 ratio and you're looking conservatively at 20". Yes, someone will probably do better than that, but it is impossible to know where - though it's usually in the colder and more elevated areas north and west of the city.

It's still going to be amazing, but nobody is getting 4 feet of snow.

 
The potential flooding is a big issue for the Jersey shore all the way up to where I am in Hoboken. A lot of those shore towns have barely recovered, if at all, from Sandy and there are people who have just recently gotten their houses rebuilt, again if at all. Do everyone a favor and think of those people as you cheer for your 2 feet of snow, you savages.
I understand what you're saying, but cheering for snow has no effect on whether it hits or doesn't.
And I've heard this response before. Cheering for sports teams doesn't have an effect on whether they win or not, and yet people do. There's a reason they do.So let's play this out...you're cheering for a bunch of snow, for what exactly? When it materializes, what do you do? Do you get frustrated by all the shoveling, being forced inside, not being able to park on the street? Or do you get some level of enjoyment out of it?
who invited Debbie downer to the snowball fight?
You gotta think he's just fishing for something. No one could really have their panties up in a bunch over people enjoying snow, right?
Not fishing at all. I just find the "cheering for snow doesn't actually make it snow" excuse laughable. Enjoy the snow all you want...you're admitting it, that's great. You're not hiding behind a bunch of BS.

 
GFS moves its handling of the storm in line with the NAM. But the snow totals are quite a bit less. Like, my are goes from about 26 inches to 16 inches. Thoughts are that the NAM is over amplifying while the GFS isn't handling the data correctly. I'm leaning more towards the NAM here, but I don't think that means the totals are correct.

 
Hmm, might have to change what I just said.

The GFS gives the entire DC/Balt metro 28"+

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/uploads/monthly_01_2016/post-1746-0-39368000-1453391459.gif

This is insanity. Would truly be a once in a lifetime event if it verifies. Comparable to the famous Washington-Jefferson snow, when both of those guys wrote in their diaries about a 3-foot snowstorm.
Yeah, the mets I've been talking with are very hesitant to admit totals this high, but they are saying that it's getting harder and harder to disagree with what they are seeing. The parallels to the BO96 are spot on. This thing has the potential to be HUGE! But no met ever likes to forecast historic numbers.

 
I feel bad for you guys on that northern cutoff. One model is predicting 4" for areas in central NJ and another is 20"+.

Hard to know what's going to happen.

My big concern is keeping the snow off the DirecTV dish for viewing purposes. Though it might snow hard enough that the signal itself is disrupted, like in thunderstorms.

 
I feel bad for you guys on that northern cutoff. One model is predicting 4" for areas in central NJ and another is 20"+.

Hard to know what's going to happen.

My big concern is keeping the snow off the DirecTV dish for viewing purposes. Though it might snow hard enough that the signal itself is disrupted, like in thunderstorms.
I'm most worried about the power. ETA: Oh. And the people on the Jersey Shore.

Speaking of thunderstorms, there should be a very good chance for thundersnow anywhere in the area that is seeing the large snow totals.

 
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The potential flooding is a big issue for the Jersey shore all the way up to where I am in Hoboken. A lot of those shore towns have barely recovered, if at all, from Sandy and there are people who have just recently gotten their houses rebuilt, again if at all. Do everyone a favor and think of those people as you cheer for your 2 feet of snow, you savages.
I understand what you're saying, but cheering for snow has no effect on whether it hits or doesn't.
And I've heard this response before. Cheering for sports teams doesn't have an effect on whether they win or not, and yet people do. There's a reason they do.So let's play this out...you're cheering for a bunch of snow, for what exactly? When it materializes, what do you do? Do you get frustrated by all the shoveling, being forced inside, not being able to park on the street? Or do you get some level of enjoyment out of it?
who invited Debbie downer to the snowball fight?
You gotta think he's just fishing for something. No one could really have their panties up in a bunch over people enjoying snow, right?
Not fishing at all. I just find the "cheering for snow doesn't actually make it snow" excuse laughable. Enjoy the snow all you want...you're admitting it, that's great. You're not hiding behind a bunch of BS.
Well a seismologist doesn't root for an earthquake with death and destruction. But if an 8.5 hits NYC it's an event that they don't see, can learn from and study. I doubt anyone is rooting for people or property damage here, but a fascination and interest in meteorology. Don't take t personally. :shrug:

 
I feel bad for you guys on that northern cutoff. One model is predicting 4" for areas in central NJ and another is 20"+.

Hard to know what's going to happen.

My big concern is keeping the snow off the DirecTV dish for viewing purposes. Though it might snow hard enough that the signal itself is disrupted, like in thunderstorms.
I'm most worried about the power. ETA: Oh. And the people on the Jersey Shore.

Speaking of thunderstorms, there should be a very good chance for thundersnow anywhere in the area that is seeing the large snow totals.
Ooooooh, thundersnow.

:jealous:

 
Can anyone tell me when businesses in North Jersey will start shutting down? Today? Tomorrow? Not until Saturday? Once that happens, I can pretty much kick ####ing back for the rest of the day.
Seems like stuff starts 5 am Saturday so I don't think anything will close Friday.

-QG

 
Not fishing at all. I just find the "cheering for snow doesn't actually make it snow" excuse laughable. Enjoy the snow all you want...you're admitting it, that's great. You're not hiding behind a bunch of BS.
What are you talking about? Admitting that we like snow? I think most people will admit that. What is laughable is that you are mad at people who do not affect an outcome. Go hang out in the other thread I created for you. You can wish no snow all you want there. Just remember, when you wish for no snow, that means drought conditions. And that means farmers lose out and go bankrupt. I hope you can live with that.

 
Not fishing at all. I just find the "cheering for snow doesn't actually make it snow" excuse laughable. Enjoy the snow all you want...you're admitting it, that's great. You're not hiding behind a bunch of BS.
What are you talking about? Admitting that we like snow? I think most people will admit that. What is laughable is that you are mad at people who do not affect an outcome. Go hang out in the other thread I created for you. You can wish no snow all you want there. Just remember, when you wish for no snow, that means drought conditions. And that means farmers lose out and go bankrupt. I hope you can live with that.
You hope for 8 inches of snow which gets you a day home from work, your kids off from school, and a nice family day making snowmen and drinking hot chocolate around the fire? Congrats, you're a normal person.

You hope for 3 feet of snow and are disappointed when it doesn't come, you're an #######, sorry.

If you can't comprehend that I'm not sure what else to tell you.

 
Not fishing at all. I just find the "cheering for snow doesn't actually make it snow" excuse laughable. Enjoy the snow all you want...you're admitting it, that's great. You're not hiding behind a bunch of BS.
What are you talking about? Admitting that we like snow? I think most people will admit that. What is laughable is that you are mad at people who do not affect an outcome. Go hang out in the other thread I created for you. You can wish no snow all you want there. Just remember, when you wish for no snow, that means drought conditions. And that means farmers lose out and go bankrupt. I hope you can live with that.
You hope for 8 inches of snow which gets you a day home from work, your kids off from school, and a nice family day making snowmen and drinking hot chocolate around the fire? Congrats, you're a normal person.

You hope for 3 feet of snow and are disappointed when it doesn't come, you're an #######, sorry.

If you can't comprehend that I'm not sure what else to tell you.
I hope you never wish for a sunny vacation. People need rain you animal.

 

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