Some Questions About the Projections for (1 Viewer)

[(HULK)]

So, how come he is projected to regress slightly?

The offical projections have him with less yards and less touchdowns than he had last year.

I know the Giants schedule is hard this year, but is it this hard? What happened to league parity?

I look at him and see an up and coming QB with plenty of great weapons at his disposal. In my opinion, FBGs is seriously missing the boat here.

Someone convince me that he isn't being under-rated here.

///Qualifying statement: I am a Skins homer who pretty much hates the Giants. If I can see him taking another solid step forward even with my strong bias, how come footballguys cannot?

 

[Homey]

He seriously regressed at the end of last season and I think Tiki is less effective and less helpful than last season as well.

 

[radballs]

Wow, I think his projections are a bit too high myself.

 

[(HULK)]

He seriously regressed at the end of last season and I think Tiki is less effective and less helpful than last season as well.

Okay.But, doesn't he have the work ethic his brother has? Don't you think he'll come back this season stronger and faster, and more prepared for games?

As for Tiki being less effective... I agree that will happen. But he will still remain a creditible threat in the backfield.

 

[(HULK)]

Wow, I think his projections are a bit too high myself.

So, after his first full year as a starter, you think he will get significantly worse?

 

[radballs]

Wow, I think his projections are a bit too high myself.

So, after his first full year as a starter, you think he will get significantly worse?

Not significantly. Their current projections are very close to his numbers from last year. Mine are even slightly lower than that.

 

[Homey]

He seriously regressed at the end of last season and I think Tiki is less effective and less helpful than last season as well.

Okay.But, doesn't he have the work ethic his brother has? Don't you think he'll come back this season stronger and faster, and more prepared for games?

No.

 

[(HULK)]

For reference, this is his season last year:

WK	TM	OPP	CMP	ATT	YD	TD	INT	RSH	YD	TD	FPT1	NYG	ARI	10	23	172	2	2	0	0	0	14.62	NYG	NO	13	24	165	1	0	3	0	0	12.23	NYG	SD	24	41	352	2	0	3	13	0	26.94	NYG	STL	19	35	296	4	0	2	-2	0	30.66	NYG	DAL	14	29	215	1	1	1	10	0	14.87	NYG	DEN	23	42	214	2	1	0	0	0	17.78	NYG	WAS	12	31	146	1	1	0	0	0	10.39	NYG	SF	18	33	251	1	0	3	-3	0	16.210	NYG	MIN	23	48	291	1	4	2	24	0	16.911	NYG	PHI	17	26	218	3	0	3	7	0	23.612	NYG	SEA	29	53	344	2	1	3	15	0	25.713	NYG	DAL	12	31	152	0	2	0	0	0	5.614	NYG	PHI	28	44	312	1	3	4	8	1	23.415	NYG	KC	17	32	186	1	1	2	-3	0	1216	NYG	WAS	23	41	244	1	1	2	13	0	16.517	NYG	OAK	12	24	204	1	0	2	-2	0	14TOT	294	557	3762	24	17	30	80	1	281

 

[(HULK)]

Not saying this means anything, but Eli had 281 fantasy points (FBG scoring) in his first full year starting.

These guys had less:

Carson Palmer- 209

Tom Brady- 209 (15 games though)

Brett Farve- 246

Trent Green- 277

Matt Hasselbeck- 230 (14 games)

Peyton Manning- 269

I'm not saying that always happens.

What I am saying is that last year you guys had Carson Palmer ranked around QB18.

The upper eschelon QBs can take the next step towards their full potential once they've got a full season's experience under their belt.

I still believe Eli takes that step this season.

 

[Big Score]

The upper eschelon QBs can take the next step towards their full potential once they've got a full season's experience under their belt.

I still believe Eli takes that step this season.

I'm with you on this one HULK

 

[Purpulhippo999]

eli blows hes such ####

 

[joffer]

The upper eschelon QBs can take the next step towards their full potential once they've got a full season's experience under their belt.

I still believe Eli takes that step this season.

I agree, but that may equate to better leadership, less mistakes, and ultimately more wins. It doesn't necessarily mean better stats.That said, my projections are slightly higher than David's, but I think he's pretty close.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I am curious how many "traditional pocket passer QBs" have ranked top 5 in FF with such an abysmal completion%.

 

[Big Score]

I am curious how many "traditional pocket passer QBs" have ranked top 5 in FF with such an abysmal completion%.

The thought is that with a whole year under his belt, Eli will continue progressing as a QB, not remain at status quo. However, if you think Eli has reached his zenith already, then your comment on his abysmal completion% has merit.

 

[Jason Wood]

While Eli's fantasy numbers were solid, his being heralded as the next great QB is premature. His 52% completion percentage was woeful (among the worst in the league) and he was tied for 2nd most interceptions. His passer rating declined in each successive month last year and, oh, by the way, he's got one of the hardest schedules in the league (on paper).

Manning could regress slightly and still be a viable fantasy QB1. Of course, given his youth and what I've perceived to be a strong work ethic, it also wouldn't be unusual to see Manning improve due to the natural career arc a starting QB would normally experience.

 

[CalBear]

Please note that Manning threw 557 passes last year; that's #18 out of all QB seasons since 2000 (192 team-years). Some of the seasons ahead of him in attempts are 2001 Brad Johnson, 2001 Jon Kitna, and 2000 Vinny Testaverde. He had six games with over 40 attempts, and one with over 50. I think it's fair to expect that, even if Eli improves, he will not be among the top 10% in passing attempts this year, which will impact his fantasy production.

2005 was only the second time a Tom Coughlin-coached team has been in the top 10 in passing attempts. Half the time, Coughlin's teams have been in the 20+ range. I think you're very likely to see 50 fewer attempts from Manning, and it's quite possible he'll have 100 fewer attempts in 2006 compared to 2005.

 

[Construction Man Jim]

I'm with you Hulk. A lot of people are sleeping on Eli this season.

The Giants return their entire offensive line and all 11 starters on offense. Plus Sinorice moss was added in the draft. This will be Eli's 3rd year in the league and 2nd full season as the starter - a point where many other QBs have made enormous strides. These are all reasons to expect greater consistency.

Anybody who thinks Eli regressed in the second half last season didn't watch the games.

The only negative is the tough schedule. But Eli showed he can perform well in tough situations and against top competition (see San Diego, Denver, Seattle games).

There is no basis for downgrading Eli's production from last year

 

[Blackjacks]

For reference, this is his season last year:

WK TM OPP CMP ATT YD TD INT RSH YD TD FPT1 NYG ARI 10 23 172 2 2 0 0 0 14.62 NYG NO 13 24 165 1 0 3 0 0 12.23 NYG SD 24 41 352 2 0 3 13 0 26.94 NYG STL 19 35 296 4 0 2 -2 0 30.66 NYG DAL 14 29 215 1 1 1 10 0 14.87 NYG DEN 23 42 214 2 1 0 0 0 17.78 NYG WAS 12 31 146 1 1 0 0 0 10.39 NYG SF 18 33 251 1 0 3 -3 0 16.210 NYG MIN 23 48 291 1 4 2 24 0 16.911 NYG PHI 17 26 218 3 0 3 7 0 23.612 NYG SEA 29 53 344 2 1 3 15 0 25.713 NYG DAL 12 31 152 0 2 0 0 0 5.614 NYG PHI 28 44 312 1 3 4 8 1 23.415 NYG KC 17 32 186 1 1 2 -3 0 1216 NYG WAS 23 41 244 1 1 2 13 0 16.517 NYG OAK 12 24 204 1 0 2 -2 0 14TOT 294 557 3762 24 17 30 80 1 281

Everyone keeps talking about this tough schedule.....where is it???????????His first 3 out of four are cupcakes with S.D. being his hard one. I can think of harder defenses for my fantsy qb to go against.

Then he goes on a third games stretch which is tough, not impossible but tough. I will say Dallas and Washington have 2 of the better pass defense in the league. I wouldn't put Denver in that same category but they are good.

The he has another four game stretch that doesn't scare me. SF, Minn, Philly and Seattle. While I like Minn and Philly's secondary and pass rush I don't know if I'd put them in the top ten, I love the shootout possibilty against Seattle and SF well I think their actions speak better than words.

Then he ends with a descent last five. Again, unfortunetly he runs into the Skins and Boys again. However though KC Philly and Oakland are nice teams to be playing downt he stretch.

I do think one advantage he could have is I don't think the G-MEN are going to be very good this year. Usually losing teams do have to throw alittle more.

I think Eli is a superb young qb and a consistent top 5 fantasy qb for many year to come.

 

[CalBear]

\

Everyone keeps talking about this tough schedule.....where is it???????????

His first 3 out of four are cupcakes with S.D. being his hard one. I can think of harder defenses for my fantsy qb to go against.

You're looking at his schedule from last year, which was indeed easy. This year it looks like this:Sep 10 Indianapolis 5:15pm

Sep 17 @Philadelphia 10:00am

Sep 24 @Seattle 1:15pm

Week 4 BYE

Oct 8 Washington 10:00am

Oct 15 @Atlanta 10:00am

Oct 23 @Dallas 5:30pm

Oct 29 Tampa Bay 10:00am

Nov 5 Houston 10:00am

Nov 12 Chicago 10:00am

Nov 20 @Jacksonville 5:30pm

Nov 26 @Tennessee 10:00am

Dec 3 Dallas 10:00am

Dec 10 @Carolina 10:00am

Dec 17 Philadelphia 10:00am

Dec 24 New Orleans 10:00am

Dec 30 @Washington

So he starts the season with seven tough games in a row, and really only gets three or four easier games after that (Houston, @Tenn, New Orleans).

 

[Blackjacks]

\

Everyone keeps talking about this tough schedule.....where is it???????????

His first 3 out of four are cupcakes with S.D. being his hard one. I can think of harder defenses for my fantsy qb to go against.

You're looking at his schedule from last year, which was indeed easy. This year it looks like this:Sep 10 Indianapolis 5:15pm

Sep 17 @Philadelphia 10:00am

Sep 24 @Seattle 1:15pm

Week 4 BYE

Oct 8 Washington 10:00am

Oct 15 @Atlanta 10:00am

Oct 23 @Dallas 5:30pm

Oct 29 Tampa Bay 10:00am

Nov 5 Houston 10:00am

Nov 12 Chicago 10:00am

Nov 20 @Jacksonville 5:30pm

Nov 26 @Tennessee 10:00am

Dec 3 Dallas 10:00am

Dec 10 @Carolina 10:00am

Dec 17 Philadelphia 10:00am

Dec 24 New Orleans 10:00am

Dec 30 @Washington

So he starts the season with seven tough games in a row, and really only gets three or four easier games after that (Houston, @Tenn, New Orleans).

I apologize. I saw that on this page and on another not updated site. Thanks for update.First three aren't all that bad

The next three out of four are pretty brutal though.

Then an easy two and a very hard two.

And I guess the only positive thing to say about the last five is he has Philly and NO during the playofs.

I haven't really looked at his schedule before this, so after looking a this let me say...........I'm really happy I have Trent Green as well.

 

[Construction Man Jim]

I do think one advantage he could have is I don't think the G-MEN are going to be very good this year. Usually losing teams do have to throw alittle more.

Sorry to be harsh but do you even watch football?

 

[delusional]

10am game? wtf..lol

eagles D is MUCH improved this year, eli is going to have a rough year.

 

[Mooks77]

Please note that Manning threw 557 passes last year; that's #18 out of all QB seasons since 2000 (192 team-years). Some of the seasons ahead of him in attempts are 2001 Brad Johnson, 2001 Jon Kitna, and 2000 Vinny Testaverde. He had six games with over 40 attempts, and one with over 50. I think it's fair to expect that, even if Eli improves, he will not be among the top 10% in passing attempts this year, which will impact his fantasy production.

2005 was only the second time a Tom Coughlin-coached team has been in the top 10 in passing attempts. Half the time, Coughlin's teams have been in the 20+ range. I think you're very likely to see 50 fewer attempts from Manning, and it's quite possible he'll have 100 fewer attempts in 2006 compared to 2005.

WHY did Eli attempt so many passes last season in Coughlin's system? And what has changed this offseason to think his number of attempts will be less?

 

[CalBear]

WHY did Eli attempt so many passes last season in Coughlin's system? And what has changed this offseason to think his number of attempts will be less?

Partly, it's because he completed relatively few passes. Consider that he threw 198 passes on second down and completed just 98 of them (49.5%) for 5.7 yards per attempt; both those numbers were below his averages for the season, and indicate that he was putting the Giants in third-down passing situations more often. So if he completes more passes on second down, his game performance would improve, but not necessarily his fantasy performance.Four of the five games the Giants lost in the regular season, Manning had more than 40 pass attempts, and only one of those was a blowout game. I'd expect Coughlin would revert to his typical, more conservative offense that produced positive results.

 

[Mooks77]

Four of the five games the Giants lost in the regular season, Manning had more than 40 pass attempts, and only one of those was a blowout game. I'd expect Coughlin would revert to his typical, more conservative offense that produced positive results.

Thanks for the stats and analysis. But that brings up another question. If the Giants have a tougher schedule this year, and they are behind in more games, won't they be forced to pass the ball more than last year? Even if Couhglin wants to run the ball more, you just can't do that when you're behind.

 

[CalBear]

Four of the five games the Giants lost in the regular season, Manning had more than 40 pass attempts, and only one of those was a blowout game. I'd expect Coughlin would revert to his typical, more conservative offense that produced positive results.

Thanks for the stats and analysis. But that brings up another question. If the Giants have a tougher schedule this year, and they are behind in more games, won't they be forced to pass the ball more than last year? Even if Couhglin wants to run the ball more, you just can't do that when you're behind.

Projections are not an exact science, and there is always more than one way to look at things. But I would be suspicious of anyone projecting Eli Manning to be in the 90th percentile in pass attempts in 2006, as he was in 2005. If he drops to 500 receptions, which is probably where I'd project him, he'd need to improve to 58.8% just to get the same number of completions.

 

[Ozymandias]

Eli Manning 2005

Games 1-8:

QB rating 84.3

Yards 1,811

TD's 14

Int's 5

Games 9-16:

QB rating 68.6

Yards 1,951

Td's 10

Int's 12

Maybe he's got all his problems solved. But it may be that defenses found out how to read him, and that is why the second half was worse, in spite of more attempts.

With a tougher schedule, I'd be leery.

 

[(HULK)]

Lots of good info here.

I still believe he's got the stuff though.

And really, what it boils down to is does he have it?

People talking about coaching and schedule here are over-analyzing. Is Marvin Lewis a Mike Martz clone? No, but that didn't stop Carson from having a great season last year.

A great talent can be great no matter what. For a lesser talent, situation plays a much stronger role, but for great talents, they find a way to be great regardless of the situation.

Eli's situation is sprinkled with things both good and bad for his situation. The real question is do you think he can live up to his first overall billing?

I do.

 

[Construction Man Jim]

No doubt defenses started game planning for him and that was a factor. But he is a cerebral QB like his brother and will have the entire off season to study tape and make adjustments.

Also, he had an undisclosed injury that was clearly affecting him as the season wore on (probably aggrevated the injury he suffered in the pre-season). The fact that he toughed it out and didn't miss any time or use it as an excuse is not a negative that should be held against him.

 

[Mooks77]

Lots of good info here.

I still believe he's got the stuff though.

And really, what it boils down to is does he have it?

People talking about coaching and schedule here are over-analyzing. Is Marvin Lewis a Mike Martz clone? No, but that didn't stop Carson from having a great season last year.

A great talent can be great no matter what. For a lesser talent, situation plays a much stronger role, but for great talents, they find a way to be great regardless of the situation.

Eli's situation is sprinkled with things both good and bad for his situation. The real question is do you think he can live up to his first overall billing?

I do.

Not that I am disagreeing with you Hulk, as I think Eli will be good this year. But Palmer finished 2004 very well, which carried over into 2005. As the stats show Eli didn't finish very well. Like Ozymandius said, maybe he has fixed all of his problems, maybe not. My gut says that he simply wore down in his first full NFL season and he will have a very good year, just like his first half last year.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Just wanted to point out that... despite picking his stats apart and turning up whatever negatives you can... dude was only in his 2nd year in the NFL. Pretty sure he still has room to improve as an NFL passer.

 

[CalBear]

Just wanted to point out that... despite picking his stats apart and turning up whatever negatives you can... dude was only in his 2nd year in the NFL. Pretty sure he still has room to improve as an NFL passer.

My point is that he can improve as an NFL passer without improving in fantasy terms.

 

[shamrock84]

eli blows hes such ####

Hmmmm.... interesting argument...

 

[radballs]

Just wanted to point out that... despite picking his stats apart and turning up whatever negatives you can... dude was only in his 2nd year in the NFL.  Pretty sure he still has room to improve as an NFL passer.

My point is that he can improve as an NFL passer without improving in fantasy terms.

Just like his brother did from '04 to '05.

 

[(HULK)]

Not that I am disagreeing with you Hulk, as I think Eli will be good this year. But Palmer finished 2004 very well, which carried over into 2005. As the stats show Eli didn't finish very well. Like Ozymandius said, maybe he has fixed all of his problems, maybe not. My gut says that he simply wore down in his first full NFL season and he will have a very good year, just like his first half last year.

I don't know about this theory. It helped me snag Chad Johnson the year he became elite, but after drafting both Julius Jones and Kevin Jones last year, I feel kinda burned by it.Its a new season. He has a years more experience. I think he's capable of learning from his mistakes.

 

[nygiants56]

Wow, I think his projections are a bit too high myself.

So, after his first full year as a starter, you think he will get significantly worse?

Not significantly. Their current projections are very close to his numbers from last year. Mine are even slightly lower than that.

many of last years #'s came from the G-men trailing in the 2nd half of games, and Eli having to air it out as a result...I think his numbers might go down slightly but the Giants will win more games, imo..that defense is going to be ferocious and will keep games close enough that Manning won't need to throw as much to keep the Giants competitive..

 

[CalBear]

many of last years #'s came from the G-men trailing in the 2nd half of games, and Eli having to air it out as a result...I think his numbers might go down slightly but the Giants will win more games, imo..that defense is going to be ferocious and will keep games close enough that Manning won't need to throw as much to keep the Giants competitive..

Eli had more attempts, more yardage and more TDs in the first half than in the second half and OT last year, so I don't think there's any evidence he was throwing because the Giants were trailing in the second half of games. (Plus they were 11-5; how many games were they significantly behind in the second half?)The idea that the Giants will win more than 11 games seems farcical to me.