Start David Garrard this week (1 Viewer)

[Chase Stuart]

Lots of people doubted that Garrard could be a legitimate QB1 this season, and he didn't exactly put those doubts to rest with his week one performance. I urge you, if you drafted him as part of your committee, to put him in your lineup this week. Why?

He's playing Arizona, who allowed a league-leading 22.5 FP/G to opposing QBs in 2008.

He's playing Arizona at home, who allowed 24.0 FP/G in road games to opposing QBs in '08. To opposing QBs outside of the NFC West, in five games, the Cardinals allowed 31.3 FP/G last year.

He's playing Arizona at home, at 1 P.M. His rookie tackles will look much better playing against the Cardinals than the Colts. Holt looks good, and MJD looks great. I expect, at a minimum, 200/2 by Garrard. Upside? QB1 for the week.

I'm getting as many of my Jaguars into my lineup as I can. I'm even thinking about playing Troy Williamson, although I'll probably go with someone safer like Mark Clayton. I know a lot of people doubt Garrard, but I'm willing to bank on him having a huge game this week. So, please, start him if you got him.

 

[thehornet]

I just dont know about all that.

 

[SuperGreen]

I'm even thinking about playing Troy Williamson

i did that this week and it cost me the game...shoulda known better.

 

[Interseptopus]

Lots of people doubted that Garrard could be a legitimate QB1 this season, and he didn't exactly put those doubts to rest with his week one performance. I urge you, if you drafted him as part of your committee, to put him in your lineup this week. Why?

He's playing Arizona, who allowed a league-leading 22.5 FP/G to opposing QBs in 2008.

He's playing Arizona at home, who allowed 24.0 FP/G in road games to opposing QBs in '08. To opposing QBs outside of the NFC West, in five games, the Cardinals allowed 31.3 FP/G last year.

He's playing Arizona at home, at 1 P.M. His rookie tackles will look much better playing against the Cardinals than the Colts. Holt looks good, and MJD looks great. I expect, at a minimum, 200/2 by Garrard. Upside? QB1 for the week.

I'm getting as many of my Jaguars into my lineup as I can. I'm even thinking about playing Troy Williamson, although I'll probably go with someone safer like Mark Clayton. I know a lot of people doubt Garrard, but I'm willing to bank on him having a huge game this week. So, please, start him if you got him.

Let's not get carried away,Garrard is a good start this week, yes.

Personally, I have McNabb on my team who I am not going to start. I also have Cutler who I have reservations about starting and will not. I am targeting Garrard this week from our WW to start

 

[Jewell]

Thanks. I already had Garrard penciled in for the start. Your stellar stats simply confirmed my belief in Garrard this week.

 

[Knobs]

Is Holt only receiving option worth starting this week? What about the TE? If Garrard is really going to blow up, through whom will he explode?

 

[Cabby]

I really didn't expect much from Garrard against Indy and I have him penciled in for this week as he has a good matchup.

 

[wudaben]

I may be forced to try this out this week after the brutal week 1 performance and the fact that Schaub vs. Tenn isn't very inviting! Garrard, MJD & Holt it is....

 

[Ted Lange as your Bartender]

I'm on board - Schaub to the bench this week

 

[bostonfred]

The Cards have allowed just 209 yards passing and only one passing TD this year.

 

[Buffaloes]

After watching GB play last weekend, benching Palmer for Garrard doesn't seem so crazy this week.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Is Holt only receiving option worth starting this week? What about the TE? If Garrard is really going to blow up, through whom will he explode?

Good question. Holt's an obvious start. After that?Out of Williamson, Sims-Walker and Hughes, one will probably have good numbers. Audible favorites Dillard and Thomas were inactive against the Colts, and will probably be inactive again this week. Lewis and MJD saw half of Garrard's passes against Indy, so I certainly think both could have big numbers if Garrard throws for 320 yards.Bottom line: MJD is always a start. Garrard and Holt are stud QB/WRs this week. Lewis is a high upside play, but TEs are always tricky to spot start. Williamson is probably most likely to beat the Cards for a long score, but who knows who else will get the numbers. But yes, if Garrard goes for 320/3, some of these Jags are going to be worth starting.

 

[Chase Stuart]

The Cards have allowed just 209 yards passing and only one passing TD this year.

Guess they're due for a huge week then.

 

[Aardvarks]

Arizona at Jax...hmmm

The Garrard fascination with some FBG staffers is baffling.

He's not a fantasy QB. Garrard is sorta the new Brad Johnson... some W's under his belt thanks to good decision-making. But in this hobby he's not going to give you what you want. Every once in a while he throws 2 Tds and adds 58 yards rushing, causing a fantasy stir. But it's fleeting and unreliable. And his WRs flat suck.

Arizona's defense is underrated.

There are 14-16 other QBs I'd start this week, not including whoever starts for Philly.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Watch out for Marcedes this week. Vernon Davis got open a ton against Arizona on the GW drive, and Lewis actually looked more with it than any of the Jags WRs except maybe Holt.

 

[Maven]

Week 1...Old man Issac Bruce , 8T, 4rec, 74yds, 18.5 PER CATCH!

T. Holt can do that easily..you may be right

 

[SuperGreen]

Is Holt only receiving option worth starting this week? What about the TE? If Garrard is really going to blow up, through whom will he explode?

But yes, if Garrard goes for 320/3, some of these Jags are going to be worth starting.

Q: how many times has garrard thrown for 320 yds in his last 39 starts?A: onceQ: how many times has garrard thrown for 3 TD in his last 39 starts?A: twicetall odds there to pull a game like that out of his ###...is arizona really THAT bad?

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

I can't wait to bump this Monday and Tuesday Wensday ect ect

 

[kutta]

I said it in preseason and I'll say it now, I just don't get the Garrard love from FBG's. I think a lot of people are going to be pretty bummed out come week 7 or 8 and they have Garrard as their starting QB.

 

[perry147]

Is Holt only receiving option worth starting this week? What about the TE? If Garrard is really going to blow up, through whom will he explode?

But yes, if Garrard goes for 320/3, some of these Jags are going to be worth starting.

Q: how many times has garrard thrown for 320 yds in his last 39 starts?A: onceQ: how many times has garrard thrown for 3 TD in his last 39 starts?A: twicetall odds there to pull a game like that out of his ###...is arizona really THAT bad?

In 2008 Arizona gave up three or more TD passes 6 times, including such great QBs as Tarvaris Jackson and Matt Cassel.The unstoppable object meets the force made of Jello.

 

[moneyman]

I'm in

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I'm guessing that those stats allowed by Arizona are biased towards passing numbers, but Garrard's fantasy value is more reliant on him rushing than most other fantasy QBs. Not sure they have the weapons in the passing game to put up huge numbers against that D, who was all over Shaun Hill this week and gave up no room to Frank Gore in the running game either.

 

[lod01]

David Garrard and big game....in the same sentence.....

 

[kutta]

I'm guessing that those stats allowed by Arizona are biased towards passing numbers, but Garrard's fantasy value is more reliant on him rushing than most other fantasy QBs. Not sure they have the weapons in the passing game to put up huge numbers against that D, who was all over Shaun Hill this week and gave up no room to Frank Gore in the running game either.

I agree.The Arizona D played a pretty good game Sunday. They gave up a total of 209 passing yards and 21 rushing yards - the total net yards given up by AZ was 203 (including sacks, etc.). And 80 of those yards came in the fourth quarter on one drive. So in the first three quarters they held SF to around 120 total yards of offense.Granted, SF is not exactly a high-powered offense, but the AZ D is better than most give them credit for.

 

[thehornet]

As a completely unknown internet poster, I would strongly suggest that you do not start any of your Jaguars outside of MJD unless you have very little else to choose from.

 

[ttea]

As a McNabb owner I endorse this message.

 

[Black]

Do you get residuals?

Seriously though...he's starting given that he's my #2 behind McNabb. Tell me though, would you start Gerrard over:

Flacco @SD

Sh Hill v. SEA

T. Edwards v.TB

Orton v. CLE

Myself and 100-1000s(?) of David Dodds readers are following you on this.

 

[fozzy fosbourne]

This is really difficult. I have the Schaub/Garrard combo but like another poster mentioned, it's hard to see Garrard capitalizing on a particular D. He's not a feast or famine type of guy, so will he really take advantage of it? Even with the matchup, Schaub seems like a more likely candidate for a home run although he could have a bad week, too.

And I might need a home run this week. I definitely need to do better than last week with the combo.

 

[Maven]

Do you get residuals?Seriously though...he's starting given that he's my #2 behind McNabb. Tell me though, would you start Gerrard over:Flacco @SDSh Hill v. SEAT. Edwards v.TBOrton v. CLEMyself and 100-1000s(?) of David Dodds readers are following you on this.

Flacco time

 

[None_More_Black]

What is up with the Footballguys love for a below average QB on a run first team?

 

[Hawk Fan]

What is up with the Footballguys love for a below average QB on a run first team?

Garrard was 7th in pass attempts last year.

 

[None_More_Black]

What is up with the Footballguys love for a below average QB on a run first team?

Garrard was 7th in pass attempts last year.

How about yards per game, TDS, yards per attempt, or passer rating?

 

[tomarken]

As talented as the linebackers are, the strength of the Arizona defense is the secondary. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie ("DRC") and Adrian Wilson are going to be perennial Pro Bowl candidates for the next few years. DRC is already one of the most athletic defensive players in the NFL and is a terrific playmaker who had four INTs in the second half of the season and then two more in the playoffs. Adrian Wilson can do it all - get to the passer (8 sacks in 2005, 2 in the NFC Championship Game), create turnovers and make big plays (his resume includes both a 99-yard fumble return TD and 99-yard INT return TD). Wilson will continue to move to linebacker in dime sets to get as many athletic defenders on the field as possible. Antrel Rolle is another terrific athlete who plays "centerfield" for the Cardinals. He struggled initially in '08 as he transitioned from corner to safety, but he was living up to high expectations by the end of the year. Arizona signed yet another ex-Steeler, Bryant McFadden, to play the other cornerback spot. McFadden is just hitting his prime and was one of the more prized free agents this offseason. He's a solid cover corner who played very well down the stretch, and will provide a nice upgrade to the Arizona secondary.

 

[SCT]

As talented as the linebackers are, the strength of the Arizona defense is the secondary. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie ("DRC") and Adrian Wilson are going to be perennial Pro Bowl candidates for the next few years. DRC is already one of the most athletic defensive players in the NFL and is a terrific playmaker who had four INTs in the second half of the season and then two more in the playoffs. Adrian Wilson can do it all - get to the passer (8 sacks in 2005, 2 in the NFC Championship Game), create turnovers and make big plays (his resume includes both a 99-yard fumble return TD and 99-yard INT return TD). Wilson will continue to move to linebacker in dime sets to get as many athletic defenders on the field as possible. Antrel Rolle is another terrific athlete who plays "centerfield" for the Cardinals. He struggled initially in '08 as he transitioned from corner to safety, but he was living up to high expectations by the end of the year. Arizona signed yet another ex-Steeler, Bryant McFadden, to play the other cornerback spot. McFadden is just hitting his prime and was one of the more prized free agents this offseason. He's a solid cover corner who played very well down the stretch, and will provide a nice upgrade to the Arizona secondary.

 

[footballnerd]

Is Holt only receiving option worth starting this week? What about the TE? If Garrard is really going to blow up, through whom will he explode?

But yes, if Garrard goes for 320/3, some of these Jags are going to be worth starting.

Q: how many times has garrard thrown for 320 yds in his last 39 starts?A: onceQ: how many times has garrard thrown for 3 TD in his last 39 starts?A: twicetall odds there to pull a game like that out of his ###...is arizona really THAT bad?

Garrard would never get you those numbers, but he can get you a consistent 250 and 2TDs (passing or rushing) when his O-line is healthy (last year they were not), and that's what people are expecting from him this year. I wouldn't expect over 300 yds and 3TDs type games, he doesn't have the receivers for that.

 

[CletiusMaximus]

I said it in preseason and I'll say it now, I just don't get the Garrard love from FBG's.

I got an email from Joe earlier today telling me to "Downgrade" Garrard, so it seems FBG is covered this weekend either way.

 

[Couch Potato]

He's playing Arizona at home, who allowed 24.0 FP/G in road games to opposing QBs in '08. To opposing QBs outside of the NFC West, in five games, the Cardinals allowed 31.3 FP/G last year.

Those QBs were:Campbell 193-2 plus 26 rushing. Campbell threw 30 times. Numbers were OK but not special.

Favre 289-6. Favre threw 34 times. Arizona starting CB Eric Green was injured with an ankle sprain in the 2nd qtr on the 2nd TD play and did not return. Without him the secondary was in trouble and his replacement was picked on continually.

Delhomme 248-2. Steve Smith was 117-2.

McNabb 260-4 plus 24 rushing. McNabb threw 39 times.

Cassel 345-3 plus 19 rushing. Cassel threw 36 times. Moss, Welker, Gaffney combined for 247-2

So, the sample Chase gives us is 5 games, conveniently leaving out 11 other games. Last I looked, Garrard is not McNabb or a healthy Favre, or throwing to Steve Smith or Randy Moss or Wes Welker, and we should not expect the same production if he throws the ball 34 times or 39 times or 36 times. Nor should we expect Zona's starting CB to go out for the game in the 2nd quarter like he did in Favre's fluky 6 TD game.

For the record, here are Garrard's stat lines last year when throwing 30+ times. 12 games total, 1 TD in 10 of them, 2 TDs in 2 of them, and 0 TDs in 2 of them. An average of 1 TD. Far less productive than Favre's 6, McNabb's 4, or the Patriots offense's 3 with 30+ passes wouldn't you say?

215-1 (35 passes)

236-1 (32 passes)

200-1 (32 passes)

276-1 (34 passes)

283-2 (42 passes)

229-0 (38 passes)

135-0 (30 passes)

317-1 (45 passes)

287-1 (35 passes)

178-1 (38 passes)

238-2 (33 passes)

329-1 (41 passes)

Average of those 12 games:

244-1 (36 passes)

The Jags will try to run against the Cardinals to keep Fitz/Boldin/etc. off the field, and their passes by and large will be of the short variety as they have been in the past (9 of 14 completions last week were to RB/TE, even with Colts' safety Bob Sanders out of the lineup). And especially near the goal line, they will run run run, just like always. You don't average one TD pass per game on 36 attempts per game, over 12 games, if you are looking to pass near the goal line. That's not Del Rio's way. And the "lie with statistics" approach which by happenstance included high scoring games from Favre, McNabb, and Cassel (while with the Patriots) in Chase's small sample of 5 games should be ignored when evaluating how Zona's defense will do against Garrard this week.

 

[Mookie Blaylock]

Why do I feel like this thread is a joke?

 

[two_dollars]

Shark play is Mike Sims-Walker

 

[Couch Potato]

Why do I feel like this thread is a joke?

I love Chase. He's put out many very interesting articles and quizzes and blog posts (Pro Football Reference) with lots of food for thought. He loves looking back at historical numbers and great players in football history. Some really interesting stuff, many many times.But IMO there's a disconnect here. Chase (as well as lots of other guys) relies too much on looking back at numbers, especially averages, and translating those into predictions. Those are a piece of the puzzle, but more important are the facts and circumstances that led to the past numbers, and the facts and circumstances surrounding the future we are trying to evaluate, and adjusting accordingly. Especially with a small sample size, you often end up talking yourself into or out of things by looking too much at past numbers rather than looking at roles and matchups and team philosophies.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Lots of people doubted that Garrard could be a legitimate QB1 this season, and he didn't exactly put those doubts to rest with his week one performance. I urge you, if you drafted him as part of your committee, to put him in your lineup this week. Why?

He's playing Arizona, who allowed a league-leading 22.5 FP/G to opposing QBs in 2008.

He's playing Arizona at home, who allowed 24.0 FP/G in road games to opposing QBs in '08. To opposing QBs outside of the NFC West, in five games, the Cardinals allowed 31.3 FP/G last year.

He's playing Arizona at home, at 1 P.M. His rookie tackles will look much better playing against the Cardinals than the Colts. Holt looks good, and MJD looks great. I expect, at a minimum, 200/2 by Garrard. Upside? QB1 for the week.

I'm getting as many of my Jaguars into my lineup as I can. I'm even thinking about playing Troy Williamson, although I'll probably go with someone safer like Mark Clayton. I know a lot of people doubt Garrard, but I'm willing to bank on him having a huge game this week. So, please, start him if you got him.

I'm actually forced into it, Chase as McNabb is my starter. I've got Garrard as my backup with about 3 QB's selected in my add/drop like Garcia, Sanchez and M. Campbell (kind of like Campbell this week versus St. Louis too as a decent start) but I hope you are right and will remember to throw you some props even if you're remotely correct. In this particular league I had Brady last year and McNabb this year, I'm feeling a little snake bit.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Why do I feel like this thread is a joke?

The thread is not a joke. Strongly advise starting Garrard this week.

 

[Mookie Blaylock]

Why do I feel like this thread is a joke?

The thread is not a joke. Strongly advise starting Garrard this week.

No, no...I get that you like him this week. I get that. And I get what AZ did last year defensively. I mean, before they played in the SB. But what I don't get is what Garrard is going to do this season that Hill (18-31, 209, 1/0), Gore (30/1, 3/18/1) and the Niners couldn't. It's not like we're talking about the Pats offense either. I mean, I come to this site and to these threads to learn something. To me it looks like a strog play for MJD, not so much Garrard. So, for example, who would you NOT start him over this week? Because just strongly advising really tells me nothing.

 

[gonzobill5]

Is Holt only receiving option worth starting this week? What about the TE? If Garrard is really going to blow up, through whom will he explode?

But yes, if Garrard goes for 320/3, some of these Jags are going to be worth starting.

Q: how many times has garrard thrown for 320 yds in his last 39 starts?A: onceQ: how many times has garrard thrown for 3 TD in his last 39 starts?A: twicetall odds there to pull a game like that out of his ###...is arizona really THAT bad?

This sums it up. Those of us that drafted Garrard should have done it for his consistency. He doesn't turn the ball over much and he contributes a few extra points on the ground. But just the same, he probably isn't going to throw for 3 TDs or 300 yards, even against a bad pass defense. Whoever said 250 total yards and 2 TDs had it about right IMO. And after all, aren't those QB1 numbers? I'm starting him over Palmer in one league and over Orton in the other, no brainers.

 

[Mookie Blaylock]

Is Holt only receiving option worth starting this week? What about the TE? If Garrard is really going to blow up, through whom will he explode?

But yes, if Garrard goes for 320/3, some of these Jags are going to be worth starting.

Q: how many times has garrard thrown for 320 yds in his last 39 starts?A: onceQ: how many times has garrard thrown for 3 TD in his last 39 starts?A: twicetall odds there to pull a game like that out of his ###...is arizona really THAT bad?

This sums it up. Those of us that drafted Garrard should have done it for his consistency. He doesn't turn the ball over much and he contributes a few extra points on the ground. But just the same, he probably isn't going to throw for 3 TDs or 300 yards, even against a bad pass defense. Whoever said 250 total yards and 2 TDs had it about right IMO. And after all, aren't those QB1 numbers? I'm starting him over Palmer in one league and over Orton in the other, no brainers.

No brainers because it's Palmer and Orton. Not because it's Garrard. (IMO)

 

[Chase Stuart]

Why do I feel like this thread is a joke?

The thread is not a joke. Strongly advise starting Garrard this week.

No, no...I get that you like him this week. I get that. And I get what AZ did last year defensively. I mean, before they played in the SB. But what I don't get is what Garrard is going to do this season that Hill (18-31, 209, 1/0), Gore (30/1, 3/18/1) and the Niners couldn't. It's not like we're talking about the Pats offense either. I mean, I come to this site and to these threads to learn something. To me it looks like a strog play for MJD, not so much Garrard. So, for example, who would you NOT start him over this week? Because just strongly advising really tells me nothing.

The Cardinals at home are much, much different than the Cardinals on the road. A 1PM start for the Cards on the East Coast has, for decades, been very bad. Even last year in the best season in Arizona history, the Cards still put up a bunch of stinkers.

 

[Mookie Blaylock]

Why do I feel like this thread is a joke?

The thread is not a joke. Strongly advise starting Garrard this week.

No, no...I get that you like him this week. I get that. And I get what AZ did last year defensively. I mean, before they played in the SB. But what I don't get is what Garrard is going to do this season that Hill (18-31, 209, 1/0), Gore (30/1, 3/18/1) and the Niners couldn't. It's not like we're talking about the Pats offense either. I mean, I come to this site and to these threads to learn something. To me it looks like a strog play for MJD, not so much Garrard. So, for example, who would you NOT start him over this week? Because just strongly advising really tells me nothing.

The Cardinals at home are much, much different than the Cardinals on the road. A 1PM start for the Cards on the East Coast has, for decades, been very bad. Even last year in the best season in Arizona history, the Cards still put up a bunch of stinkers.

That I can work with.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Is Holt only receiving option worth starting this week? What about the TE? If Garrard is really going to blow up, through whom will he explode?

But yes, if Garrard goes for 320/3, some of these Jags are going to be worth starting.

Q: how many times has garrard thrown for 320 yds in his last 39 starts?A: once

Q: how many times has garrard thrown for 3 TD in his last 39 starts?

A: twice

tall odds there to pull a game like that out of his ###...is arizona really THAT bad?

This sums it up. Those of us that drafted Garrard should have done it for his consistency. He doesn't turn the ball over much and he contributes a few extra points on the ground. But just the same, he probably isn't going to throw for 3 TDs or 300 yards, even against a bad pass defense. Whoever said 250 total yards and 2 TDs had it about right IMO. And after all, aren't those QB1 numbers? I'm starting him over Palmer in one league and over Orton in the other, no brainers.

I don't believe there's such a thing as QB consistency, at least in a predictive sense. You can predict a QB's average production, but you can't predict a QB's consistency. Over the course of a season or several seasons, individual QBs will have consistent or inconsistent results; but that does not mean that going forward, those QBs will maintain their consistency.The short of it is, Garrard's a good QB and a good fantasy QB. He'll have some really great weeks and some clunkers. Home against Arizona should be a great week. I say he'll be in the top five among QBs this week.

 

[gheemony]

Chase, I want to get a better sense of how strongly you feel about it. Would you bench over a top tier QB with a bad matchup, like Rivers vs. Baltimore? What about another back up QB with a strong matchup, like Favre vs. Detroit?

Even I buy Garrard, I don't see Holt doing more than his usual 5-50 schtick. Sounds like the benefit is of someone getting behind the secondary, and that's not Holt. Or I can see MJD scoring on a screen or dump off. Garrard may pick up yards and TDS like that, but I don't see how Holt is helping him with that.

 

[djjosee]

Choo Choo ....