Steve Johnson, WR, Buffalo Bills (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2011 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

With the labor uncertainty, there are more unanswered questions entering the summer than usual. The good news is that gives us some more time to discuss the merits of players without having to react (or overreact) to the smallest bits of news about a slight injury in practice, or coach speak. We'll have plenty of time for that when it comes (we hope).

In the meantime, as always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Steve Johnson, WR, Buffalo Bills

Player Page Link: Steve Johnson Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

[*]For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

What I like is that most of the offense is coming back. You have to think Buffalo is a candidate to lose 10+ games this year again. They likely will be behind and throwing the football a lot to try and catch up. I like Steve Johnson to continue what he started last season. He should be seen as a possible WR2 fo most owners in 12 team leagues.

I think a projection of 70/1,000/8TDs is perfectly legit and he exceeded those numbers last year.

 

[finito]

88, 1260, 9 TDs.

Love this guy and think he is a terrific value based on his current ADP.

 

[OrangeCurtain]

Also on the SJ hype train, trying to work a trade that will get rid of Bowe in a dynasty league because I can still use SJ as my WR2 (Austin WR1) plus get Green or Jones in the rookie draft.

90/1300/10

 

[sihaokills]

Also on the SJ hype train, trying to work a trade that will get rid of Bowe in a dynasty league because I can still use SJ as my WR2 (Austin WR1) plus get Green or Jones in the rookie draft.90/1300/10

Woah overrating him... I would say 75/1100/8

 

[We Tigers]

I like Steve Johnson, but don't love him. As long as Fitzpatrick is QB, he will be the #1 target. The Bills seem content to keep that status quo since there really isn't another viable option on the roster, so that does work in his favor. That said, I don't find Johnson to be that special a talent--more a decent to good player in the right place at the right time--and have a hard time bumping him or even expecting him to match last year's numbers.

70 rec/940 yards, 7 TDs

 

[Dinsy Ejotuz]

From the Week 5 bye on last year (when Johnson emerged as the clear #1) he caught six balls per game (65 in 11).

So... for the guys dramatically cutting Johnson's production for 2012 I'm curious why you think that he'll be used so much less this year?

 

[todisco1]

I like Steve Johnson, but don't love him. As long as Fitzpatrick is QB, he will be the #1 target. The Bills seem content to keep that status quo since there really isn't another viable option on the roster, so that does work in his favor. That said, I don't find Johnson to be that special a talent--more a decent to good player in the right place at the right time--and have a hard time bumping him or even expecting him to match last year's numbers. 70 rec/940 yards, 7 TDs

Did you watch him play last year? I'm just asking because you state that you don't think he's a special talent, merely "decent to good." I missed the boat on this guy in all my leagues but watched him closely a couple of games and he looked to me like an absolute beast. He seems to have everything it takes to be a bona fide stud WR... but I only saw him in two complete games (and of course the ESPN highlights). Not that I'm disagreeing with you per se, but I'd like to hear your thought process on why he's not that good. He looked terrific in the limited action I saw him.

 

[We Tigers]

I like Steve Johnson, but don't love him. As long as Fitzpatrick is QB, he will be the #1 target. The Bills seem content to keep that status quo since there really isn't another viable option on the roster, so that does work in his favor. That said, I don't find Johnson to be that special a talent--more a decent to good player in the right place at the right time--and have a hard time bumping him or even expecting him to match last year's numbers. 70 rec/940 yards, 7 TDs

Did you watch him play last year? I'm just asking because you state that you don't think he's a special talent, merely "decent to good." I missed the boat on this guy in all my leagues but watched him closely a couple of games and he looked to me like an absolute beast. He seems to have everything it takes to be a bona fide stud WR... but I only saw him in two complete games (and of course the ESPN highlights). Not that I'm disagreeing with you per se, but I'd like to hear your thought process on why he's not that good. He looked terrific in the limited action I saw him.

I saw a lot of play against lesser DBs (when teams were still focusing on Lee Evans) and a fair amount in garbage time, which I never like to depend on for stats. The Bills didn't do much to expand or diversify their offense in the draft, and I'm not really a believer in the abilities of Ryan Fitzpatrick either. Not every player maintains or improves on his performance from the previous year. On a lousy team, I don't think a 15% downward projection for a receiver with a second-tier QB is too controversial.

 

[fightingillini]

Steve Johnson's situation is pretty good. Fitzpatrick will be the QB, he favored Stevie as his #1 target, and the Bills D still will be suspect. My big concern with him is that he dropped too many passes....the one for a TD against the Steelers in OT is a tough one to ignore.

74 rec, 1025 yds, 7TD. Decent #2WR.

 

[rzrback77]

Not a big fan of Stevie the name or Stevie the player. I do not like his situation as the Bills seem to be working up toward a focus on the running game. For the second straight year they drafted an RB and they already have two guys that are capable. I see them running more if they can stay in the games (which may be a stretch).

They have a plethora of young receivers and I just don't think that S Johnson is special. Evans is decent and should be better than in 10 when he was injured. Marcus Easley might get on the field some and surely Spiller, Fred Jackson, and even the rookie RB will catch some balls.

There is also the QB situation where Fitzpatrick may yet have some FA competition and isn't that awesome himself. Finally, there is the weather, where the passing game occassionally deteriorates with the weather around fantasy playoff time.

Johnson had a monster game in week 11 last season with 8 catches for over 100 yards and 3 TDs, but after that game, the performance decreased even with huge target numbers. Over the last six games, Johnson had 58 targets, just under 10 per game and yet only had 30 catches for 345 yards (58 ypg) and only 1 TD. Those target numbers for a full 16 game season would equal 155 targets and yet he managed only 58 yards and 0.17 TDs per game. There is no way that Johnson will see that number of targets (only Fitz, Wayne & Roddy reached that level last season) in 2011.

This guy has disappointment written all over him.

Stevie Johnson 16 gms 120 targets 68 catches 56.7% 816 yds 12.0 ypc and 6 TDs

edited math error in the calcs

 

[GoBills02]

Not a big fan of Stevie the name or Stevie the player. I do not like his situation as the Bills seem to be working up toward a focus on the running game. For the second straight year they drafted an RB and they already have two guys that are capable. I see them running more if they can stay in the games (which may be a stretch).

They have a plethora of young receivers and I just don't think that S Johnson is special. Evans is decent and should be better than in 10 when he was injured. Marcus Easley might get on the field some and surely Spiller, Fred Jackson, and even the rookie RB will catch some balls.

There is also the QB situation where Fitzpatrick may yet have some FA competition and isn't that awesome himself. Finally, there is the weather, where the passing game occassionally deteriorates with the weather around fantasy playoff time.

Johnson had a monster game in week 11 last season with 8 catches for over 100 yards and 3 TDs, but after that game, the performance decreased even with huge target numbers. Over the last six games, Johnson had 58 targets, just under 10 per game and yet only had 30 catches for 345 yards (58 ypg) and only 1 TD. Those target numbers for a full 16 game season would equal 155 targets and yet he managed only 58 yards and 0.17 TDs per game. There is no way that Johnson will see that number of targets (only Fitz, Wayne & Roddy reached that level last season) in 2011.

This guy has disappointment written all over him.

Stevie Johnson 16 gms 120 targets 68 catches 56.7% 816 yds 12.0 ypc and 6 TDs

edited math error in the calcs

So you're not high on Steve Johnson based on the Bills 5th round selection of their 3rd string RB? That's just silly.

I think he did hit his ceiling last year, don't sleep on MArcus Easley either, he was on is way to being the #2 last year until he got hurt in training camp. Also, Roscoe Parrish being lost for the season probably increased Johnson's numbers too, as Roscoe was having a career year before he got hurt. Fitz loved dumping it to him underneath.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Not a big fan of Stevie the name or Stevie the player. I do not like his situation as the Bills seem to be working up toward a focus on the running game. For the second straight year they drafted an RB and they already have two guys that are capable. I see them running more if they can stay in the games (which may be a stretch).

They have a plethora of young receivers and I just don't think that S Johnson is special. Evans is decent and should be better than in 10 when he was injured. Marcus Easley might get on the field some and surely Spiller, Fred Jackson, and even the rookie RB will catch some balls.

There is also the QB situation where Fitzpatrick may yet have some FA competition and isn't that awesome himself. Finally, there is the weather, where the passing game occassionally deteriorates with the weather around fantasy playoff time.

Johnson had a monster game in week 11 last season with 8 catches for over 100 yards and 3 TDs, but after that game, the performance decreased even with huge target numbers. Over the last six games, Johnson had 58 targets, just under 10 per game and yet only had 30 catches for 345 yards (58 ypg) and only 1 TD. Those target numbers for a full 16 game season would equal 155 targets and yet he managed only 58 yards and 0.17 TDs per game. There is no way that Johnson will see that number of targets (only Fitz, Wayne & Roddy reached that level last season) in 2011.

This guy has disappointment written all over him.

Stevie Johnson 16 gms 120 targets 68 catches 56.7% 816 yds 12.0 ypc and 6 TDs

edited math error in the calcs

So you're not high on Steve Johnson based on the Bills 5th round selection of their 3rd string RB? That's just silly.

I think he did hit his ceiling last year, don't sleep on MArcus Easley either, he was on is way to being the #2 last year until he got hurt in training camp. Also, Roscoe Parrish being lost for the season probably increased Johnson's numbers too, as Roscoe was having a career year before he got hurt. Fitz loved dumping it to him underneath.

Good point on Parrish. The truth is that Gailey LOVES Parrish and was planning on using him a ton in all sorts of ways before he got hurt. And from what I'm hearing, that will still be in place this coming year. Easley is also a big question mark, but he obviously has talent, although I donn't think he ever seriously challenged Johnson for the #2 spot. He was clearly going to be the #4 WR IMO.

 

[GoBills02]

So I was already for a big aha argument with stats and numbers, and so I crunched them myself.

Roscoe Parrish - Games 1- 9 9 games 33 Rec. 400 Yards. 2 TD: 3.6 Rec/game 44.4 yds/game

Steve Johnson - Games 1-9 9 Games 41 Rec. 554 Yards 6 TD 4.6 Rec/game 61.5 yds/game

Steve Johnson - Games 10-17 8 Games 41 Rec. 522 Yrds 4 TD 5.1 Rec/.game 65.3 yds/ game

So in summary, Steve Johnson averaged .5 more catches a game and 4 yards more with Parrish out of the line up. Not as big a difference as I assumed.

 

[mlball77]

So I was already for a big aha argument with stats and numbers, and so I crunched them myself.Roscoe Parrish - Games 1- 9 9 games 33 Rec. 400 Yards. 2 TD: 3.6 Rec/game 44.4 yds/gameSteve Johnson - Games 1-9 9 Games 41 Rec. 554 Yards 6 TD 4.6 Rec/game 61.5 yds/gameSteve Johnson - Games 10-17 8 Games 41 Rec. 522 Yrds 4 TD 5.1 Rec/.game 65.3 yds/ gameSo in summary, Steve Johnson averaged .5 more catches a game and 4 yards more with Parrish out of the line up. Not as big a difference as I assumed.

I think your calc has Johnson playing 17 games in 2010. Might have missed his bye week in one of the two time periods.

 

[az_prof]

It is not unusual for WRs to fall off from their career production, especially young WRS who have not proven that they are year in year out performers. I fully expect Johnson to decline from last year. Teams will better prepare to defend him. And the team did not upgrade at QB. I think 55/750/ 5 TDs is about right. He may get to 1000 yards but I will be surprised.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

I think teams will better prepare for him next season. I do see him as the Bills Wr1 but I just don't see him doing better than he did in 2010.

70 receptions 920 yards and 7 Td's

 

[GoBills02]

So I was already for a big aha argument with stats and numbers, and so I crunched them myself.Roscoe Parrish - Games 1- 9 9 games 33 Rec. 400 Yards. 2 TD: 3.6 Rec/game 44.4 yds/gameSteve Johnson - Games 1-9 9 Games 41 Rec. 554 Yards 6 TD 4.6 Rec/game 61.5 yds/gameSteve Johnson - Games 10-17 8 Games 41 Rec. 522 Yrds 4 TD 5.1 Rec/.game 65.3 yds/ gameSo in summary, Steve Johnson averaged .5 more catches a game and 4 yards more with Parrish out of the line up. Not as big a difference as I assumed.

I think your calc has Johnson playing 17 games in 2010. Might have missed his bye week in one of the two time periods.

Yep, sorry. Agree with the last two posters. I expect Johnson's numbers to fall, and Spiller receptions to increase.

 

[Eminence]

Seems like a lot of people are sour because they didn't recognize his talent before he broke out. Reminds me of the Roddy White denial a few years back. This guy will be a perennial 1,000 Yard / 6 TD guy.

In the current offense I see his ceiling at about 1,200 Yard / 12TD.

Great value; only downside is he'll be on Revis Island 2x a year.

 

[Football Critic]

Ok so if he had a pretty good season once, why cant he do it again?

I've learned on this board if you dont have the SEXY name, you wont get respect.

Fact - he got 82/1073/10, pretty dang good.

Fact - Buffalo will have to pass a lot, and i mean a lot...they suck. People assume they will run, hello, fantasy and pro football 101...you cant run if your behind...ALL THE TIME.

Fact - Stevie is one of the fastest in the league and has talent, you can not over look that in the NFL.

Fact - 11th in the league in targets per game, yup I see them forgetting all about this kid who made the Bills and Fitzy look good at times, not Spiller the stud rookie or anyone else, it was Stevie. Fitzy was nothing without this kid.

Stevie Johnson is the Definition of WR1, and you can get him after round 5, yup sign me up. It dont matter who you are when your recieving top 10 targets, your a #1 WR, especially when you catch 80, 1000 plus, and 10 scores.

You can say Stevie wont do that again, but whats even funnier is people believe Llyod will do it again, hmm.

Stevie had better stats than Marshall, Colston, Welker, both Mike Williams, and 4 catches and 100 yards less but 2 more TDs than Andre Johnson.

Yup, but lets bash a guy like this cuz it aint sexy, I guess thats why most lose and a few win, because of oversights lke these.

 

[HellToupee]

Ok so if he had a pretty good season once, why cant he do it again?

I've learned on this board if you dont have the SEXY name, you wont get

Fact - Stevie is one of the fastest in the league and has talent, you can not over look that in the NFL.

I own SJ & like him but I thought he was a 4.55-4.59 guy

 

[LHUCKS]

Fact - Stevie is one of the fastest in the league

Link??there are a lot of sub 4.4 guys in the league...

 

[We Tigers]

Ok so if he had a pretty good season once, why cant he do it again?

Antonio Bryant, Mike Sims-Walker, Roy Williams, Lee Evans, and countless others to the white courtesy phone, please...It's not about Johnson not having a sexy name, nor is it even about people expecting him to suck. The lower projections in this thread--920/7, 940/7, 860/6--aren't even that low. It's skepticism about a guy with little track record on a lousy team. Some people are all about the risk in that situation, while others will avoid it. I think the scope of the projections so far pretty fairly reflects those mindsets.

 

[az_prof]

Ok so if he had a pretty good season once, why cant he do it again?

Antonio Bryant, Mike Sims-Walker, Roy Williams, Lee Evans, and countless others to the white courtesy phone, please...It's not about Johnson not having a sexy name, nor is it even about people expecting him to suck. The lower projections in this thread--920/7, 940/7, 860/6--aren't even that low. It's skepticism about a guy with little track record on a lousy team. Some people are all about the risk in that situation, while others will avoid it. I think the scope of the projections so far pretty fairly reflects those mindsets.

Exactly. People aren't saying he will suck or that he shouldn't be drafted. But there is historically wide variation in top 20 WR production. There are a handful of WRs who year in and year out produce at high level (over 70 receptions and over 1000 yards); but until a player has done it twice in a row, a healthy scepticism is natural. And I have to say that the comparison to Roddy White is way off base. Roddy White took a while to break out but he was an NFL first round pick. Stevie Johnson was a 7th round pick. So, the lack of pedigree is part of what gives me pause. The poor quality of the QB also gives me pause (I don't expect the QB to improve).

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Not a big fan of Stevie the name or Stevie the player. I do not like his situation as the Bills seem to be working up toward a focus on the running game. For the second straight year they drafted an RB and they already have two guys that are capable. I see them running more if they can stay in the games (which may be a stretch).

They have a plethora of young receivers and I just don't think that S Johnson is special. Evans is decent and should be better than in 10 when he was injured. Marcus Easley might get on the field some and surely Spiller, Fred Jackson, and even the rookie RB will catch some balls.

There is also the QB situation where Fitzpatrick may yet have some FA competition and isn't that awesome himself. Finally, there is the weather, where the passing game occassionally deteriorates with the weather around fantasy playoff time.

Johnson had a monster game in week 11 last season with 8 catches for over 100 yards and 3 TDs, but after that game, the performance decreased even with huge target numbers. Over the last six games, Johnson had 58 targets, just under 10 per game and yet only had 30 catches for 345 yards (58 ypg) and only 1 TD. Those target numbers for a full 16 game season would equal 155 targets and yet he managed only 58 yards and 0.17 TDs per game. There is no way that Johnson will see that number of targets (only Fitz, Wayne & Roddy reached that level last season) in 2011.

This guy has disappointment written all over him.

Stevie Johnson 16 gms 120 targets 68 catches 56.7% 816 yds 12.0 ypc and 6 TDs

edited math error in the calcs

So you're not high on Steve Johnson based on the Bills 5th round selection of their 3rd string RB? That's just silly.

If you only read one sentence perhaps that's all you would get out of it. I think there was some pretty good analysis in there that you must have glossed over.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

Fact - he got 82/1073/10, pretty dang good.

Fact - Buffalo will have to pass a lot, and i mean a lot...they suck. People assume they will run, hello, fantasy and pro football 101...you cant run if your behind...ALL THE TIME.

Fact - Stevie is one of the fastest in the league and has talent, you can not over look that in the NFL.

Fact - 11th in the league in targets per game, yup I see them forgetting all about this kid who made the Bills and Fitzy look good at times, not Spiller the stud rookie or anyone else, it was Stevie. Fitzy was nothing without this kid.

Your second "Fact" is more of an opinion - the Bills had a young defense last year with some talent and had a pretty good draft to add some more.Your third "Fact" is actually an "untruth" in that Johnson isn't even close to being one of the fastest WRs in the league. He ran a 4.59 40 at the combine and wasn't even close to being one of the fastest WRs in his draft class.

Personally being an AFC East guy I've seen him play quite a bit and I'm a beleiver in his talent, but I think a few factors work against him repeating his numbers from last season. Some have already been mentioned, but the biggest one is that I just don't think Ryan Fitzpatrick is a very good quarterback. He compiled some nice fantasy stats through a high volume of passing, but I do think a focus on the run and an (even if only slightly) improved defense will cut down some of the "garabage time" production.

72 receptions, 935 yards, 7 TDs - still a viable WR3.

 

[GoBills02]

Not a big fan of Stevie the name or Stevie the player. I do not like his situation as the Bills seem to be working up toward a focus on the running game. For the second straight year they drafted an RB and they already have two guys that are capable. I see them running more if they can stay in the games (which may be a stretch).

They have a plethora of young receivers and I just don't think that S Johnson is special. Evans is decent and should be better than in 10 when he was injured. Marcus Easley might get on the field some and surely Spiller, Fred Jackson, and even the rookie RB will catch some balls.

There is also the QB situation where Fitzpatrick may yet have some FA competition and isn't that awesome himself. Finally, there is the weather, where the passing game occassionally deteriorates with the weather around fantasy playoff time.

Johnson had a monster game in week 11 last season with 8 catches for over 100 yards and 3 TDs, but after that game, the performance decreased even with huge target numbers. Over the last six games, Johnson had 58 targets, just under 10 per game and yet only had 30 catches for 345 yards (58 ypg) and only 1 TD. Those target numbers for a full 16 game season would equal 155 targets and yet he managed only 58 yards and 0.17 TDs per game. There is no way that Johnson will see that number of targets (only Fitz, Wayne & Roddy reached that level last season) in 2011.

This guy has disappointment written all over him.

Stevie Johnson 16 gms 120 targets 68 catches 56.7% 816 yds 12.0 ypc and 6 TDs

edited math error in the calcs

So you're not high on Steve Johnson based on the Bills 5th round selection of their 3rd string RB? That's just silly.

If you only read one sentence perhaps that's all you would get out of it. I think there was some pretty good analysis in there that you must have glossed over.

Agreed and apologize.

 

[Zimm]

I am on the Johnson band wagon i think he can put together another good year as the number 1 target as a Bill....Playing in that tough division they are always going to be loosing and throwing the ball a lot.

85-1100-9

 

[Go deep]

Its hard for me to believe he peaked in his 3rd year and first year as a starter. As a Bills fan im convinced he has the talent to be a top 10 WR in this league and im pretty excited to see what he can do having a full offseason with Fitzpatrick as the starter.

145 targets, 88 rec, 1190 yards, 9 TD's

 

[vandyt]

Fitzpatrick has played well in spurts in his career, but never has been able to show sustained success.

OL is still terrible.

I doubt its possible for Lee Evans and CJ Spiller to be as underutilized as they were last year.

David Nelson may (may) give them a legitimate non-smurf 3rd WR option for the first time in awhile.

65/900/6 and at least one breakdown during a press conference.

 

[I was in the pool]

Targets fall to 110 for 2011, catching 60% - 66 REC x 13.5 YPC = 891 Yards.

66/891/7 TDs

Parrish back, Evans better, Nelson/Easley more involved, some semblance of a TE presence = back to earth for Stevie Johnson

 

[OrangeCurtain]

Targets fall to 110 for 2011, catching 60% - 66 REC x 13.5 YPC = 891 Yards.66/891/7 TDsParrish back, Evans better, Nelson/Easley more involved, some semblance of a TE presence = back to earth for Stevie Johnson

Why Evans better NOW, he's been riding the mediocrity train for what, 5 years now?I'll dial back my admittedly irrationally exuberant projections above and say 85/1100/9

 

[I was in the pool]

What I mean is that evans gets more than 40 catches in 2011.

 

[Go deep]

Targets fall to 110 for 2011, catching 60% - 66 REC x 13.5 YPC = 891 Yards.66/891/7 TDsParrish back, Evans better, Nelson/Easley more involved, some semblance of a TE presence = back to earth for Stevie Johnson

Why Evans better NOW, he's been riding the mediocrity train for what, 5 years now?I'll dial back my admittedly irrationally exuberant projections above and say 85/1100/9

Plus its not like the Bills have any better options in the passing game. The TEs are still bad, Lee Evans best days are behind him although he is still a pretty good WR. Nelson, Parrish and Easley will fight for the #3 WR spot, but none of them are a threat to Johnsons playing time. Im not sure how anyone can think he has peaked. Fitzpatrick didn't even start the season and now the two will have a full offseason together. The offensive line still wont be that good, but will at least be as good as last year. The Bills will pass alot again this season and there schedule is a little easier. Johnson may not get the TDs from last season, but I think his receptions and yardage increase a bit.

 

[Go deep]

What I mean is that evans gets more than 40 catches in 2011.

Your probably right, I'm just not sure they will come at Johnsons expense. Plus they wont go up that much, Evans isn't going to catch 70 balls.

 

[IHEARTFF]

Johnson had a monster game in week 11 last season with 8 catches for over 100 yards and 3 TDs, but after that game, the performance decreased even with huge target numbers. Over the last six games, Johnson had 58 targets, just under 10 per game and yet only had 30 catches for 345 yards (58 ypg) and only 1 TD. Those target numbers for a full 16 game season would equal 155 targets and yet he managed only 58 yards and 0.17 TDs per game. There is no way that Johnson will see that number of targets (only Fitz, Wayne & Roddy reached that level last season) in 2011.

This guy has disappointment written all over him.

Stevie Johnson 16 gms 120 targets 68 catches 56.7% 816 yds 12.0 ypc and 6 TDs

edited math error in the calcs

I agree about the major slowdown after his monster game. I don't know if defenses paid more attention or it's just cold in Buffalo or what. I'm not a big fan of Buffalo's passing offense and I would especially temper my expectations here.76 catches, 890 yards, 6 TD

 

[I was in the pool]

Sell high while some still believe in 2010's stats.

I like the range of 65-75 catches, 850-1000 yards and under 8 TDs that most of these projections are within.

 

[Reaper]

Fact - he got 82/1073/10, pretty dang good.

Fact - Buffalo will have to pass a lot, and i mean a lot...they suck. People assume they will run, hello, fantasy and pro football 101...you cant run if your behind...ALL THE TIME.

Fact - Stevie is one of the fastest in the league and has talent, you can not over look that in the NFL.

Fact - 11th in the league in targets per game, yup I see them forgetting all about this kid who made the Bills and Fitzy look good at times, not Spiller the stud rookie or anyone else, it was Stevie. Fitzy was nothing without this kid.

Your second "Fact" is more of an opinion - the Bills had a young defense last year with some talent and had a pretty good draft to add some more.Your third "Fact" is actually an "untruth" in that Johnson isn't even close to being one of the fastest WRs in the league. He ran a 4.59 40 at the combine and wasn't even close to being one of the fastest WRs in his draft class.

Especially on the Speed issue.

And then I think Football Critic has to watch out on his next comment -

"Stevie Johnson is the Definition of WR1, and you can get him after round 5, yup sign me up. "

I've seen him drafted in round 4 and his Concensus ADP listed at FBG is Pick 56... At RTsports it's pick 51. NOT "after round 5". At this point if you really want him you're pulling the trigger at round 4 thru round 5.

Don't hate him but, Where I see him going so far, I'm not a buyer....

Yeah, though if I'm Football critic and see him falling to round 6 (After round 5) I start getting tempted.

 

[houndirish]

There's been some positive offseason chatter about Marcus Easley. If he were to get additional playing time and opportunities, would it come at Evans or Johnson's expense? I'm not familiar enough with Buffalo's depth chart or the specialties of all three wideouts. Just wondering who stands to suffer a falloff if the fluff pieces about Easley actually come to fruition.

Also, can we please stop calling him Stevie? This isn't Pop Warner ball.

 

[Go deep]

There's been some positive offseason chatter about Marcus Easley. If he were to get additional playing time and opportunities, would it come at Evans or Johnson's expense? I'm not familiar enough with Buffalo's depth chart or the specialties of all three wideouts. Just wondering who stands to suffer a falloff if the fluff pieces about Easley actually come to fruition.Also, can we please stop calling him Stevie? This isn't Pop Warner ball.

As a Bills homer, I like both Easley and Nelson. Neither is much of a threat to Johnson or Evans this season though. One of them could take over that #2 spot along side Johnson in 2012, but are likely relegated to #3 duties this season. In the event Easley plays so well they can't keep him off the field, I think it would come at Evans expense. There is a reason Johnson caught twice as many balls in Buffalo last year. The Bills have said they will try to get the ball to Evans more this season, but they have been saying that every season since Losman left.

 

[Clifford]

I like Steve Johnson, but don't love him. As long as Fitzpatrick is QB, he will be the #1 target. The Bills seem content to keep that status quo since there really isn't another viable option on the roster, so that does work in his favor. That said, I don't find Johnson to be that special a talent--more a decent to good player in the right place at the right time--and have a hard time bumping him or even expecting him to match last year's numbers. 70 rec/940 yards, 7 TDs

Did you watch him play last year? I'm just asking because you state that you don't think he's a special talent, merely "decent to good." I missed the boat on this guy in all my leagues but watched him closely a couple of games and he looked to me like an absolute beast. He seems to have everything it takes to be a bona fide stud WR... but I only saw him in two complete games (and of course the ESPN highlights). Not that I'm disagreeing with you per se, but I'd like to hear your thought process on why he's not that good. He looked terrific in the limited action I saw him.

Had him in a couple of leagues last year and streaky is the way I would describe him. I'd sit him one week, he'd blow up, I'd curse myself, and he'd go out and get me 3 points the next week.All of last year he had three massive, monster games. He had some significant drops last year and seems to have some trouble tracking the ball.I question his ability to break into the truly elite and think he'll have Maclin-like numbers.65 for 1090 and 8

 

[T with T]

Ok so if he had a pretty good season once, why cant he do it again?

I've learned on this board if you dont have the SEXY name, you wont get respect.

Fact - he got 82/1073/10, pretty dang good.

Fact - Buffalo will have to pass a lot, and i mean a lot...they suck. People assume they will run, hello, fantasy and pro football 101...you cant run if your behind...ALL THE TIME.

Fact - Stevie is one of the fastest in the league and has talent, you can not over look that in the NFL.

Fact - 11th in the league in targets per game, yup I see them forgetting all about this kid who made the Bills and Fitzy look good at times, not Spiller the stud rookie or anyone else, it was Stevie. Fitzy was nothing without this kid.

Stevie Johnson is the Definition of WR1, and you can get him after round 5, yup sign me up. It dont matter who you are when your recieving top 10 targets, your a #1 WR, especially when you catch 80, 1000 plus, and 10 scores.

You can say Stevie wont do that again, but whats even funnier is people believe Llyod will do it again, hmm.

Stevie had better stats than Marshall, Colston, Welker, both Mike Williams, and 4 catches and 100 yards less but 2 more TDs than Andre Johnson.

Yup, but lets bash a guy like this cuz it aint sexy, I guess thats why most lose and a few win, because of oversights lke these.

People OVERANALYZE, they are always looking for reasons for you to fail, I agree SJOHNSON has stud written all over him

 

[T with T]

What I mean is that evans gets more than 40 catches in 2011.

who says, it seems like you went into all the scenarios that would need to happen to have Stevie come down to earth... I think he is just fine hovering over it....80-1200-10 is a pretty reasonable projection for the bills # 1 wideout

 

[-jb-]

I'm still not sure where I stand with him, but after watching highlights, the one thing that really impresses me is his field awareness. It's tremendous. Good footwork around the end zone and makes great decisions coming out of a catch.

Need to research this guy.

 

[TheWick]

more Parrish, Evans, Spiller, Easley

less Johnson

64 / 920 / 6

 

[Gottabesweet]

I'm a Buffalo homer, Stevie is legit WR we haven't had since Moulds hay-day. What we thought was with Lee Evans was only as good as JP Losman was throwing him deep balls, Stevie has the will-and-desire and thrives to be a beast. He loves the fame and the spot-light and that's what most WR's have these days.

77-1199-8

 

[Team ROFLCOPTERS]

I am not a fan of where you will have to draft him.

 

[Anonymous Internet User]

Dude was top 10 last year, his situation this year couldn't possibly be any worse than it was. Last year was his third year, but it was only his first season where he played any significant role. In that sense he faced many of the same issues a rookie receiver would face in terms of playing at NFL game speed over a full season. I don't expect his numbers to be far off from last year. I don't see the problem with getting him in the fifth round.

 

[the spanker]

Any more thoughts on this guy? Evans gone probably jurts, but D still underachieving and leaving them to play catch up should mean plenty of targets for being #1.

Is there a WR in history we can go back to who was in a similar situation to get a handle on his production this year?

Got him in the 6th round as my #2 in PPR but now a little nervous about taking him.

 

[GroveDiesel]

Any more thoughts on this guy? Evans gone probably jurts, but D still underachieving and leaving them to play catch up should mean plenty of targets for being #1.Is there a WR in history we can go back to who was in a similar situation to get a handle on his production this year?Got him in the 6th round as my #2 in PPR but now a little nervous about taking him.

Relax, Stevie is a stud. Fitzpatrick loves him and the Bills are still going to throw it a ton this year. Even with Evans gone, the Bills still have Parrish who can also stretch the field and open things up for Stevie J. He'll have a great season.