Steve Smith is undervalued (1 Viewer)

[Chase Stuart]

Last year I said Steve Smith was really undervalued. That didn't turn out to be true, of course, since Smith was a bust. But he wasn't a bust for predictable reasons -- he was a bust because Jake Delhomme got hurt. Now sure, Jake Delhomme isn't an ironman, but for the most part, it's pretty tough to predict which QBs will and won't get hurt. I don't trust anyone who says that QB X is going to get hurt and QB Y is going to stay healthy, unless QB Y is Manning, Favre, Brady or uh, Manning.

Anyway, here's what I wrote last year:

Smith was dominant in 2005, scoring 237 fantasy points and finishing as the top fantasy WR. After averaging 14.8 FP/G during the regular season, he averaged 20.4 FP/G during the playoffs.

Last year, Smith missed two games early in the season, and Jake Delhomme missed three games late in the season. In the other 11 games, Smith totaled 73 receptions for 1,043 yards and 8 TDs, and threw in another 66/1 on the ground. That’s an average of 15.0 FP/G, which is even higher than his stellar ‘05 season. Is it appropriate to ignore the other five games? Chris Weinke was absolutely atrocious last year, and I don’t think projecting Smith in ‘07 off of what he did with Weinke is going to help you make an accurate prediction. While the two missed games are certainly a concern, I don’t think Smith should be downgraded much due to injury risk.

The last 30 times that Steve Smith and Jake Delhomme were on the field together, Smith totaled 3,193 yards and 24 scores. That 15.44 FP/G average is incredible, and no other WR in the league will be able to match that in 2007. While we don’t know that Smith can, not enough has changed in Carolina for me to think that a 28-year old Steve Smith won’t once again be gaining over 100 yards per game.

What's happened since then? In three games together, Smith averaged 17.6 FP/G when Delhomme was healthy. The last 33 games, Steve Smith has been incredibly awesome as a WR whenever he's been healthy and Jake Delhomme has been healthy.I get that Delhomme is an injury risk, and Steve Smith may be one too. I don't think the additions of Hackett/Muhammad cut either way. I still love Smith, and think he's got as good a chance as anyone outside of Moss to be WR1 this year. I think he's undervalued again. An average Steve Smith season would be way better than most WR's career years. In the last 33 games with Delhomme, Smith's totaled 516.2 FP. That's 15.6 FP/G, or 250 FP in a 16-game season.

 

[tribecalledjeff]

Last year I said Steve Smith was really undervalued. That didn't turn out to be true, of course, since Smith was a bust. But he wasn't a bust for predictable reasons -- he was a bust because Jake Delhomme got hurt. Now sure, Jake Delhomme isn't an ironman, but for the most part, it's pretty tough to predict which QBs will and won't get hurt. I don't trust anyone who says that QB X is going to get hurt and QB Y is going to stay healthy, unless QB Y is Manning, Favre, Brady or uh, Manning.

Anyway, here's what I wrote last year:

Smith was dominant in 2005, scoring 237 fantasy points and finishing as the top fantasy WR. After averaging 14.8 FP/G during the regular season, he averaged 20.4 FP/G during the playoffs.

Last year, Smith missed two games early in the season, and Jake Delhomme missed three games late in the season. In the other 11 games, Smith totaled 73 receptions for 1,043 yards and 8 TDs, and threw in another 66/1 on the ground. That’s an average of 15.0 FP/G, which is even higher than his stellar ‘05 season. Is it appropriate to ignore the other five games? Chris Weinke was absolutely atrocious last year, and I don’t think projecting Smith in ‘07 off of what he did with Weinke is going to help you make an accurate prediction. While the two missed games are certainly a concern, I don’t think Smith should be downgraded much due to injury risk.

The last 30 times that Steve Smith and Jake Delhomme were on the field together, Smith totaled 3,193 yards and 24 scores. That 15.44 FP/G average is incredible, and no other WR in the league will be able to match that in 2007. While we don’t know that Smith can, not enough has changed in Carolina for me to think that a 28-year old Steve Smith won’t once again be gaining over 100 yards per game.

What's happened since then? In three games together, Smith averaged 17.6 FP/G when Delhomme was healthy. The last 33 games, Steve Smith has been incredibly awesome as a WR whenever he's been healthy and Jake Delhomme has been healthy.I get that Delhomme is an injury risk, and Steve Smith may be one too. I don't think the additions of Hackett/Muhammad cut either way. I still love Smith, and think he's got as good a chance as anyone outside of Moss to be WR1 this year. I think he's undervalued again. An average Steve Smith season would be way better than most WR's career years. In the last 33 games with Delhomme, Smith's totaled 516.2 FP. That's 15.6 FP/G, or 250 FP in a 16-game season.

Agree 100%. I've been scooping him everywhere I can. You have to feel a little bit better about the QB situation, too. If Moore has to come in again, at least he has a bit of experience, and he did start to click a bit with Smith towards the end of the year.

 

[laughinboy_2000]

Last year I said Steve Smith was really undervalued. That didn't turn out to be true, of course, since Smith was a bust. But he wasn't a bust for predictable reasons -- he was a bust because Jake Delhomme got hurt. Now sure, Jake Delhomme isn't an ironman, but for the most part, it's pretty tough to predict which QBs will and won't get hurt. I don't trust anyone who says that QB X is going to get hurt and QB Y is going to stay healthy, unless QB Y is Manning, Favre, Brady or uh, Manning.

Anyway, here's what I wrote last year:

Smith was dominant in 2005, scoring 237 fantasy points and finishing as the top fantasy WR. After averaging 14.8 FP/G during the regular season, he averaged 20.4 FP/G during the playoffs.

Last year, Smith missed two games early in the season, and Jake Delhomme missed three games late in the season. In the other 11 games, Smith totaled 73 receptions for 1,043 yards and 8 TDs, and threw in another 66/1 on the ground. That’s an average of 15.0 FP/G, which is even higher than his stellar ‘05 season. Is it appropriate to ignore the other five games? Chris Weinke was absolutely atrocious last year, and I don’t think projecting Smith in ‘07 off of what he did with Weinke is going to help you make an accurate prediction. While the two missed games are certainly a concern, I don’t think Smith should be downgraded much due to injury risk.

The last 30 times that Steve Smith and Jake Delhomme were on the field together, Smith totaled 3,193 yards and 24 scores. That 15.44 FP/G average is incredible, and no other WR in the league will be able to match that in 2007. While we don’t know that Smith can, not enough has changed in Carolina for me to think that a 28-year old Steve Smith won’t once again be gaining over 100 yards per game.

What's happened since then? In three games together, Smith averaged 17.6 FP/G when Delhomme was healthy. The last 33 games, Steve Smith has been incredibly awesome as a WR whenever he's been healthy and Jake Delhomme has been healthy.I get that Delhomme is an injury risk, and Steve Smith may be one too. I don't think the additions of Hackett/Muhammad cut either way. I still love Smith, and think he's got as good a chance as anyone outside of Moss to be WR1 this year. I think he's undervalued again. An average Steve Smith season would be way better than most WR's career years. In the last 33 games with Delhomme, Smith's totaled 516.2 FP. That's 15.6 FP/G, or 250 FP in a 16-game season.

Agree 100%. I have a gut feeling the Panthers turn things around this year and possibly take a trip to the Super Bowl. Jake and Smittee will have a lot do with that. I expect Smittee to be a top 5 WR this year.

 

[LHUCKS]

 

[Bankerguy]

shhhhhhhh

 

[newteech]

I'm curious -- have any other QBs had Tommy John surgery and how did they fare the next year?

This is the only thing that scares me about Smith.

 

[tombonneau]

I've been thinking the exact same thing. Everyone's perception of Smith is still clouded by Carr Stank. He's great value at the end of the second.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I wrote in here

9. Steve Smith: (2.12) Had another down year last year but still had 87-1000-7 TD…I love this guy to rebound this year. Delhomme is back, but if he were to go down, Matt Moore doesn’t look as bad this year as an option. Mush and Hackett were brought in to take some of the pressure off. Stewart joins DeAngelo to make for an exciting dup at RB, OL has been upgraded…what’s not to like? I have him ranked higher than #9. To be able to get him on the turn in the 2/3…WOW!!!

My top 5...

1. R.Moss

2. T.Owens

3. R.Wayne

4. S.Smith

5. M.Colston

 

[jurb26]

Something has got to give here. All of these guys who are supposed to do so well in Car simply can't. I'm not seeing Smith as that great a value. I see very little chance he makes the top 5. He'll be in the 8-12 range for WRs IMO and that is right about where I've seen him drafted, if not higher.

 

[LHUCKS]

I'm curious -- have any other QBs had Tommy John surgery and how did they fare the next year?This is the only thing that scares me about Smith.

Right, you can't discount QB risk.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Something has got to give here. All of these guys who are supposed to do so well in Car simply can't. I'm not seeing Smith as that great a value. I see very little chance he makes the top 5. He'll be in the 8-12 range for WRs IMO and that is right about where I've seen him drafted, if not higher.

If something has to give, I'd bet it would be D.J. Hackett and not Steve Smith.

 

[jurb26]

Something has got to give here. All of these guys who are supposed to do so well in Car simply can't. I'm not seeing Smith as that great a value. I see very little chance he makes the top 5. He'll be in the 8-12 range for WRs IMO and that is right about where I've seen him drafted, if not higher.

If something has to give, I'd bet it would be D.J. Hackett and not Steve Smith.

What about Stewart? This is supposed to be a new and improved power run game.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Something has got to give here. All of these guys who are supposed to do so well in Car simply can't. I'm not seeing Smith as that great a value. I see very little chance he makes the top 5. He'll be in the 8-12 range for WRs IMO and that is right about where I've seen him drafted, if not higher.

If something has to give, I'd bet it would be D.J. Hackett and not Steve Smith.

What about Stewart? This is supposed to be a new and improved power run game.

I think I like Stewart, but I also don't think it really matters. I don't think that a RB like Stewart is ever going to really shift a WR's numbers one way or the other. Unless it's a Bush/Westbrook type of RB, Carolina will either be more effective at running or not more effective at running. I wouldn't worry about the effect that will have on Smith's numbers. I haven't read a study to indicate that adding a stud RB (which, of course, Stewart may not be) is bad for a stud WR.

 

[ThePittbully]

I've been thinking the exact same thing. Everyone's perception of Smith is still clouded by Carr Stank. He's great value at the end of the second.

Got him at the top of the 3rd in my last draft

 

[BigRed]

I get that Delhomme is an injury risk, and Steve Smith may be one too.

Based on your post, no, I don't think you do. You didn't learn your lesson. Given their injury risk, they're going about where they should IMO.

 

[tombonneau]

Just to clarify for everyone, this is the same Delhomme-to-Smith combo that produced this play earlier last season.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qpbl5lch3vc

 

[-jb-]

If I wasn't targeting Stewart in the 5th, I think I would have my eye on Smith. I'd prefer to not have a RB/WR from the same team...but things could be worse if it happened.

I've always been a huge Smith fan...I don't believe there's a more hungry player on the field.

 

[fflnut]

I'm curious -- have any other QBs had Tommy John surgery and how did they fare the next year?This is the only thing that scares me about Smith.

Thought this was a good question. Anyone have any info on this? Many baseball pitchers come back as good or better after TJ surgery. Curious how QBs have done.

 

[EBF]

I think he has a ton of talent, but between injury problems, QB issues, and inconsistency; he's really only posted one truly elite complete season in the past several years. I don't think he's undervalued. Lots of guys in that 5-10 range offer the same kind of risk/reward package.

I just don't see a gap between Smith and guys like Boldin, Fitzgerald, Colston, Chad, and Holt.

 

[Fear & Loathing]

Last year I said Steve Smith was really undervalued. That didn't turn out to be true, of course, since Smith was a bust. But he wasn't a bust for predictable reasons -- he was a bust because Jake Delhomme got hurt. Now sure, Jake Delhomme isn't an ironman, but for the most part, it's pretty tough to predict which QBs will and won't get hurt. I don't trust anyone who says that QB X is going to get hurt and QB Y is going to stay healthy, unless QB Y is Manning, Favre, Brady or uh, Manning.

Anyway, here's what I wrote last year:

Smith was dominant in 2005, scoring 237 fantasy points and finishing as the top fantasy WR. After averaging 14.8 FP/G during the regular season, he averaged 20.4 FP/G during the playoffs.

Last year, Smith missed two games early in the season, and Jake Delhomme missed three games late in the season. In the other 11 games, Smith totaled 73 receptions for 1,043 yards and 8 TDs, and threw in another 66/1 on the ground. That’s an average of 15.0 FP/G, which is even higher than his stellar ‘05 season. Is it appropriate to ignore the other five games? Chris Weinke was absolutely atrocious last year, and I don’t think projecting Smith in ‘07 off of what he did with Weinke is going to help you make an accurate prediction. While the two missed games are certainly a concern, I don’t think Smith should be downgraded much due to injury risk.

The last 30 times that Steve Smith and Jake Delhomme were on the field together, Smith totaled 3,193 yards and 24 scores. That 15.44 FP/G average is incredible, and no other WR in the league will be able to match that in 2007. While we don’t know that Smith can, not enough has changed in Carolina for me to think that a 28-year old Steve Smith won’t once again be gaining over 100 yards per game.

What's happened since then? In three games together, Smith averaged 17.6 FP/G when Delhomme was healthy. The last 33 games, Steve Smith has been incredibly awesome as a WR whenever he's been healthy and Jake Delhomme has been healthy.I get that Delhomme is an injury risk, and Steve Smith may be one too. I don't think the additions of Hackett/Muhammad cut either way. I still love Smith, and think he's got as good a chance as anyone outside of Moss to be WR1 this year. I think he's undervalued again. An average Steve Smith season would be way better than most WR's career years. In the last 33 games with Delhomme, Smith's totaled 516.2 FP. That's 15.6 FP/G, or 250 FP in a 16-game season.

Steve Smith is a bad###. A playmaker's playmaker.

It should surprise nobody if Smith finishes as the WR1 this year. Swing for the fences. . . .

 

[Interseptopus]

Steve Smith was a bust last year? I highly disagree...

2003: 88/1110/7

2004: HURT

2005: 103/1563/12

2006: 83/1166/8

2007: 87/1002/7

If anything, hhis stats last year were about 100 yards short of what would be expected, but 3 of the last 4 years healthy he's posted 80/1100/7. So what I'd say is that he fell back down to earth after 1 fluke season. 2 years in a row posting the same numbers...

Sure, 2005 he was incredible, but that was 2005. This is 3 years later.

I wouldn't want him as my #1 WR unless I got him cheap in my auction draft. I think he's highly OVER valued in most leagues as he's consistently ranked in the top 10.

In 2006 he finished ranked 7th, and in 2007 17th. Sure, 2007 was a year of crazy WRs (lots of TDs and more points from WRs last year), but that doesn't take away from the fact that he's roughly 9th on top 10 at best... and even so I think that's overrated.

The funny thing about fluke seasons is that no one EVER seems to forget about them, no matter how many seasons they have at 80/1100/7

Sure, Smith is a solid WR option with plenty of upside. We've seen his top 5 ability. However, let's not ignore the stats that he's posted in the last 4 years... If you're a betting man you go with what comes up more often. 3 of the last 4 years have come up 80/1100/7... 75% chance that it'll occur this year according to that

 

[Chase Stuart]

I think he has a ton of talent, but between injury problems, QB issues, and inconsistency; he's really only posted one truly elite complete season in the past several years. I don't think he's undervalued. Lots of guys in that 5-10 range offer the same kind of risk/reward package. I just don't see a gap between Smith and guys like Boldin, Fitzgerald, Colston, Chad, and Holt.

None of those guys are 15 FP/G guys like Smith, though.In terms of upside, Smith's in another tier, IMO, as long as he and Delhomme are healthy.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Steve Smith was a bust last year? I highly disagree... 2003: 88/1110/72004: HURT2005: 103/1563/122006: 83/1166/82007: 87/1002/7If anything, hhis stats last year were about 100 yards short of what would be expected, but 3 of the last 4 years healthy he's posted 80/1100/7. So what I'd say is that he fell back down to earth after 1 fluke season. 2 years in a row posting the same numbers...Sure, 2005 he was incredible, but that was 2005. This is 3 years later. I wouldn't want him as my #1 WR unless I got him cheap in my auction draft. I think he's highly OVER valued in most leagues as he's consistently ranked in the top 10.In 2006 he finished ranked 7th, and in 2007 17th. Sure, 2007 was a year of crazy WRs (lots of TDs and more points from WRs last year), but that doesn't take away from the fact that he's roughly 9th on top 10 at best... and even so I think that's overrated. The funny thing about fluke seasons is that no one EVER seems to forget about them, no matter how many seasons they have at 80/1100/7Sure, Smith is a solid WR option with plenty of upside. We've seen his top 5 ability. However, let's not ignore the stats that he's posted in the last 4 years... If you're a betting man you go with what comes up more often. 3 of the last 4 years have come up 80/1100/7... 75% chance that it'll occur this year according to that

What's convenient in your analysis is you're ignoring the health of his QB. Smith averaged more FP/G in '06 and in '07 than in '05, when Delhomme was healthy. Does three times in three years sound better than one time in four?

 

[joffer]

you've got to look at ppg with Smith, especially when considering 2006

 

[Interseptopus]

Steve Smith was a bust last year? I highly disagree... 2003: 88/1110/72004: HURT2005: 103/1563/122006: 83/1166/82007: 87/1002/7If anything, hhis stats last year were about 100 yards short of what would be expected, but 3 of the last 4 years healthy he's posted 80/1100/7. So what I'd say is that he fell back down to earth after 1 fluke season. 2 years in a row posting the same numbers...Sure, 2005 he was incredible, but that was 2005. This is 3 years later. I wouldn't want him as my #1 WR unless I got him cheap in my auction draft. I think he's highly OVER valued in most leagues as he's consistently ranked in the top 10.In 2006 he finished ranked 7th, and in 2007 17th. Sure, 2007 was a year of crazy WRs (lots of TDs and more points from WRs last year), but that doesn't take away from the fact that he's roughly 9th on top 10 at best... and even so I think that's overrated. The funny thing about fluke seasons is that no one EVER seems to forget about them, no matter how many seasons they have at 80/1100/7Sure, Smith is a solid WR option with plenty of upside. We've seen his top 5 ability. However, let's not ignore the stats that he's posted in the last 4 years... If you're a betting man you go with what comes up more often. 3 of the last 4 years have come up 80/1100/7... 75% chance that it'll occur this year according to that

What's convenient in your analysis is you're ignoring the health of his QB. Smith averaged more FP/G in '06 and in '07 than in '05, when Delhomme was healthy. Does three times in three years sound better than one time in four?

Delhomme played a full 16 games in 2004 and 13 games in 2006. 3 in 2007So in 2006 Delhomme sat out weeks 14, 15, and 16. In that time frame Smith posted:14: 5/6715: 5/5616: 0/0Before that he was averaging about 6 catches a game for about 60 yards, with 4 games of over 100 yards. The only difference is that he got the ball more in the endzone when Delhomme was in. Yes, you are correct that he averaged more with Delhomme healthy, but you need to include how much. Disregarding the lack of TDs scored in those 3 games, he did pretty much the same as he did in previous weeks. Sure, 2 games last year he was incredible, but 15/170/4 in 2 of those games (I won't count game 3). You, a footballguy, should know of anyone else here that you can't judge a season on 2 games. Especially when those 2 games are against what finished the 21st ranked passing D (STL week 1) and 25th ranked pass D (HOU in week 2). Yes, Steve Smith can be considered under rated if someone has him out of the top 15. Hell, I may even be underrating him some, but to say he'll be the #1 WR this year... or to imply that he will be top 5, that's a little ridiculous considering his streaky play and lack of consistency, not to mention brittle QB. Which poses another concernDelhomme is 33 years old... the body doesn't heal as well at 33. He hasn't completed a full season in the last 2 years. If I have to hinge my fantasy hopes on Jake Delhomme... or worse David Carr if Delhomme gets hurt... well, then that player just isn't worth taking a big gamble on. He's got high reward, but the risk seems too great for me. Injury prone QB in the last 2 years and Steve Smith is no ironman himself. Just way too many questionmarks to deem him a top 5 WR

 

[Chase Stuart]

Steve Smith was a bust last year? I highly disagree... 2003: 88/1110/72004: HURT2005: 103/1563/122006: 83/1166/82007: 87/1002/7If anything, hhis stats last year were about 100 yards short of what would be expected, but 3 of the last 4 years healthy he's posted 80/1100/7. So what I'd say is that he fell back down to earth after 1 fluke season. 2 years in a row posting the same numbers...Sure, 2005 he was incredible, but that was 2005. This is 3 years later. I wouldn't want him as my #1 WR unless I got him cheap in my auction draft. I think he's highly OVER valued in most leagues as he's consistently ranked in the top 10.In 2006 he finished ranked 7th, and in 2007 17th. Sure, 2007 was a year of crazy WRs (lots of TDs and more points from WRs last year), but that doesn't take away from the fact that he's roughly 9th on top 10 at best... and even so I think that's overrated. The funny thing about fluke seasons is that no one EVER seems to forget about them, no matter how many seasons they have at 80/1100/7Sure, Smith is a solid WR option with plenty of upside. We've seen his top 5 ability. However, let's not ignore the stats that he's posted in the last 4 years... If you're a betting man you go with what comes up more often. 3 of the last 4 years have come up 80/1100/7... 75% chance that it'll occur this year according to that

What's convenient in your analysis is you're ignoring the health of his QB. Smith averaged more FP/G in '06 and in '07 than in '05, when Delhomme was healthy. Does three times in three years sound better than one time in four?

Delhomme played a full 16 games in 2004 and 13 games in 2006. 3 in 2007So in 2006 Delhomme sat out weeks 14, 15, and 16. In that time frame Smith posted:14: 5/6715: 5/5616: 0/0Before that he was averaging about 6 catches a game for about 60 yards, with 4 games of over 100 yards. The only difference is that he got the ball more in the endzone when Delhomme was in. Yes, you are correct that he averaged more with Delhomme healthy, but you need to include how much. Disregarding the lack of TDs scored in those 3 games, he did pretty much the same as he did in previous weeks. Sure, 2 games last year he was incredible, but 15/170/4 in 2 of those games (I won't count game 3). You, a footballguy, should know of anyone else here that you can't judge a season on 2 games. Especially when those 2 games are against what finished the 21st ranked passing D (STL week 1) and 25th ranked pass D (HOU in week 2). Yes, Steve Smith can be considered under rated if someone has him out of the top 15. Hell, I may even be underrating him some, but to say he'll be the #1 WR this year... or to imply that he will be top 5, that's a little ridiculous considering his streaky play and lack of consistency, not to mention brittle QB. Which poses another concernDelhomme is 33 years old... the body doesn't heal as well at 33. He hasn't completed a full season in the last 2 years. If I have to hinge my fantasy hopes on Jake Delhomme... or worse David Carr if Delhomme gets hurt... well, then that player just isn't worth taking a big gamble on. He's got high reward, but the risk seems too great for me. Injury prone QB in the last 2 years and Steve Smith is no ironman himself. Just way too many questionmarks to deem him a top 5 WR

The last 33 games Delhomme/Smith have played together, Smith has averaged 15.6 FP/G. At what point is that not a fluke?If Smith and Delhomme play 16 games, Smith is a lock for the top 5. If you want to say one of them will be hurt, then sure, I agree Smith won't be top five.

 

[Interseptopus]

I'm not trying to prove you wrong, I'm just trying to offer the other side of the story. Guys seem to be getting erections on Steve Smith in this thread and I feel like they should calm down a little and sure, expect top 10 numbers if Delhomme is healthy and Smith is healthy, but let's not get ridiculous...

Agree to disagree I guess, good luck with Steve Smith. I may very well draft him if I can get a good deal for him at my auction, but I will be sure to get another top 10 WR as my WR2.

 

[Interseptopus]

Steve Smith was a bust last year? I highly disagree... 2003: 88/1110/72004: HURT2005: 103/1563/122006: 83/1166/82007: 87/1002/7If anything, hhis stats last year were about 100 yards short of what would be expected, but 3 of the last 4 years healthy he's posted 80/1100/7. So what I'd say is that he fell back down to earth after 1 fluke season. 2 years in a row posting the same numbers...Sure, 2005 he was incredible, but that was 2005. This is 3 years later. I wouldn't want him as my #1 WR unless I got him cheap in my auction draft. I think he's highly OVER valued in most leagues as he's consistently ranked in the top 10.In 2006 he finished ranked 7th, and in 2007 17th. Sure, 2007 was a year of crazy WRs (lots of TDs and more points from WRs last year), but that doesn't take away from the fact that he's roughly 9th on top 10 at best... and even so I think that's overrated. The funny thing about fluke seasons is that no one EVER seems to forget about them, no matter how many seasons they have at 80/1100/7Sure, Smith is a solid WR option with plenty of upside. We've seen his top 5 ability. However, let's not ignore the stats that he's posted in the last 4 years... If you're a betting man you go with what comes up more often. 3 of the last 4 years have come up 80/1100/7... 75% chance that it'll occur this year according to that

What's convenient in your analysis is you're ignoring the health of his QB. Smith averaged more FP/G in '06 and in '07 than in '05, when Delhomme was healthy. Does three times in three years sound better than one time in four?

Delhomme played a full 16 games in 2004 and 13 games in 2006. 3 in 2007So in 2006 Delhomme sat out weeks 14, 15, and 16. In that time frame Smith posted:14: 5/6715: 5/5616: 0/0Before that he was averaging about 6 catches a game for about 60 yards, with 4 games of over 100 yards. The only difference is that he got the ball more in the endzone when Delhomme was in. Yes, you are correct that he averaged more with Delhomme healthy, but you need to include how much. Disregarding the lack of TDs scored in those 3 games, he did pretty much the same as he did in previous weeks. Sure, 2 games last year he was incredible, but 15/170/4 in 2 of those games (I won't count game 3). You, a footballguy, should know of anyone else here that you can't judge a season on 2 games. Especially when those 2 games are against what finished the 21st ranked passing D (STL week 1) and 25th ranked pass D (HOU in week 2). Yes, Steve Smith can be considered under rated if someone has him out of the top 15. Hell, I may even be underrating him some, but to say he'll be the #1 WR this year... or to imply that he will be top 5, that's a little ridiculous considering his streaky play and lack of consistency, not to mention brittle QB. Which poses another concernDelhomme is 33 years old... the body doesn't heal as well at 33. He hasn't completed a full season in the last 2 years. If I have to hinge my fantasy hopes on Jake Delhomme... or worse David Carr if Delhomme gets hurt... well, then that player just isn't worth taking a big gamble on. He's got high reward, but the risk seems too great for me. Injury prone QB in the last 2 years and Steve Smith is no ironman himself. Just way too many questionmarks to deem him a top 5 WR

The last 33 games Delhomme/Smith have played together, Smith has averaged 15.6 FP/G. At what point is that not a fluke?If Smith and Delhomme play 16 games, Smith is a lock for the top 5. If you want to say one of them will be hurt, then sure, I agree Smith won't be top five.

I assume 15.6 isn't ppr. I think that's where we are having a disagrement. I play in a PPR league therefore everyone I look at I include receptions. Someone with low receptions like Steve Smith isn't a top 10 WR in a PPR league in my opinion

 

[newteech]

I'm curious -- have any other QBs had Tommy John surgery and how did they fare the next year?

This is the only thing that scares me about Smith.

Thought this was a good question. Anyone have any info on this? Many baseball pitchers come back as good or better after TJ surgery. Curious how QBs have done.

a quick Google search revealed that Rob Johnson also had Tommy John surgery. From Wiki:

A year after his surgery, Johnson worked out for the Tennessee Titans, but was clearly still not in game shape; reports suggested his arm strength was under 50%. A year later, however, Johnson tried out for, and was signed by, the New York Giants and battled for a backup spot behind Eli Manning. Johnson once again lost out to Tim Hasselbeck however, and was cut before the preseason came to an end.

 

[SSOG]

I think he has a ton of talent, but between injury problems, QB issues, and inconsistency; he's really only posted one truly elite complete season in the past several years. I don't think he's undervalued. Lots of guys in that 5-10 range offer the same kind of risk/reward package. I just don't see a gap between Smith and guys like Boldin, Fitzgerald, Colston, Chad, and Holt.

None of those guys are 15 FP/G guys like Smith, though.

Fitzgerald is with Warner under center.

 

[SSOG]

The last 33 games Delhomme/Smith have played together, Smith has averaged 15.6 FP/G. At what point is that not a fluke?If Smith and Delhomme play 16 games, Smith is a lock for the top 5. If you want to say one of them will be hurt, then sure, I agree Smith won't be top five.

One big problem. Doubling the players that a top-5 finish is depending on increases the chances that it doesn't happen. If every player in the entire NFL has a flat 25% chance of getting injured, then there's a 44% chance that one member of the Smiff/Delhomme combo goes down. And I'd argue that both players, Delhomme especially, are probably a larger injury risk than league average for their position. As a result, while I don't like trying to predict injuries, you have to acknowledge that Smiff is RADICALLY more likely to be derailed by such than his peers. If you think he's capable of top-5 production, you have to discount him for the dramatically increased risk.

 

[tex]

I've been thinking the exact same thing. Everyone's perception of Smith is still clouded by Carr Stank. He's great value at the end of the second.

Got him at the top of the 3rd in my last draft

Yea I got him at 3.01 after getting Moss at 2.05 in my initial dynasty draft.

 

[benm3218]

The last 33 games Delhomme/Smith have played together, Smith has averaged 15.6 FP/G. At what point is that not a fluke?If Smith and Delhomme play 16 games, Smith is a lock for the top 5. If you want to say one of them will be hurt, then sure, I agree Smith won't be top five.

One big problem. Doubling the players that a top-5 finish is depending on increases the chances that it doesn't happen. If every player in the entire NFL has a flat 25% chance of getting injured, then there's a 44% chance that one member of the Smiff/Delhomme combo goes down. And I'd argue that both players, Delhomme especially, are probably a larger injury risk than league average for their position. As a result, while I don't like trying to predict injuries, you have to acknowledge that Smiff is RADICALLY more likely to be derailed by such than his peers. If you think he's capable of top-5 production, you have to discount him for the dramatically increased risk.

Hey I value your opinion, so not being confrontational at all with this question next. Why do you say Smith is more likely to be injured at his position? I would assume it is due to him being injured badly before or playing so hard... But, want to know your response. I always hate knocking a guy just because of one fluke injury. I don't think Smith has had a pattern of injury has he?

 

[SSOG]

The last 33 games Delhomme/Smith have played together, Smith has averaged 15.6 FP/G. At what point is that not a fluke?If Smith and Delhomme play 16 games, Smith is a lock for the top 5. If you want to say one of them will be hurt, then sure, I agree Smith won't be top five.

One big problem. Doubling the players that a top-5 finish is depending on increases the chances that it doesn't happen. If every player in the entire NFL has a flat 25% chance of getting injured, then there's a 44% chance that one member of the Smiff/Delhomme combo goes down. And I'd argue that both players, Delhomme especially, are probably a larger injury risk than league average for their position. As a result, while I don't like trying to predict injuries, you have to acknowledge that Smiff is RADICALLY more likely to be derailed by such than his peers. If you think he's capable of top-5 production, you have to discount him for the dramatically increased risk.

Hey I value your opinion, so not being confrontational at all with this question next. Why do you say Smith is more likely to be injured at his position? I would assume it is due to him being injured badly before or playing so hard... But, want to know your response. I always hate knocking a guy just because of one fluke injury. I don't think Smith has had a pattern of injury has he?

He only weighs 185 pounds, he's only played in all 16 games twice in his 7-year career, and he seems to play with a sort of reckless abandon that, while part of what makes him great, also exposes him to a lot more hits. I don't think he's a significant injury risk, but I think he's a more significant injury risk than his peers (his peers being other top-10 fantasy WRs, such as Fitz, Moss, Colston, The Chad, Wayne, and the like).

 

[ImTheScientist]

WAYYYYYY to many questions about this guy. I will pass and let someone else take a chance. NEXT!

 

[The Man with the Plan]

2nd round pick last season. 2nd maybe 3rd round pick this season. No big deal.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Smith is valued right where he should be, and has little upside. When is the last time a WR who has an ADP in the mid-2nd to early 3rd really outplayed his draft position?

 

[SSOG]

Smith is valued right where he should be, and has little upside. When is the last time a WR who has an ADP in the mid-2nd to early 3rd really outplayed his draft position?

That's a ridiculous definition of "upside". According to that definition, the #1 draft pick has absolutely no upside at all, because no player can outperform that position. I mean, you might think that Tomlinson will rush for 2800 yards and 42 TDs, but why bother drafting him- it's not like that presents any upside, after all.A player with "upside" is a player with the potential to single-handedly carry you to a fantasy championship. Randy Moss has that kind of upside. Tom Brady has that kind of upside. Tomlinson, Peterson, and Westbrook have that kind of upside. Steve Smith, as he's demonstrated on the field, belongs in the very exclusive list of players with that kind of upside.

 

[Burning Sensation]

Smith is valued right where he should be, and has little upside. When is the last time a WR who has an ADP in the mid-2nd to early 3rd really outplayed his draft position?

That's a ridiculous definition of "upside". According to that definition, the #1 draft pick has absolutely no upside at all, because no player can outperform that position. I mean, you might think that Tomlinson will rush for 2800 yards and 42 TDs, but why bother drafting him- it's not like that presents any upside, after all.A player with "upside" is a player with the potential to single-handedly carry you to a fantasy championship. Randy Moss has that kind of upside. Tom Brady has that kind of upside. Tomlinson, Peterson, and Westbrook have that kind of upside. Steve Smith, as he's demonstrated on the field, belongs in the very exclusive list of players with that kind of upside.

OK, if what i say is so ridiculous, show me a WR who has been drafted in the 2nd, early 3rd round who has significantly outplayed his draft position? Can Smith put up numbers to justify a 2nd round pick? sure, but upside from that spot, no chance.

 

[SSOG]

Smith is valued right where he should be, and has little upside. When is the last time a WR who has an ADP in the mid-2nd to early 3rd really outplayed his draft position?

That's a ridiculous definition of "upside". According to that definition, the #1 draft pick has absolutely no upside at all, because no player can outperform that position. I mean, you might think that Tomlinson will rush for 2800 yards and 42 TDs, but why bother drafting him- it's not like that presents any upside, after all.A player with "upside" is a player with the potential to single-handedly carry you to a fantasy championship. Randy Moss has that kind of upside. Tom Brady has that kind of upside. Tomlinson, Peterson, and Westbrook have that kind of upside. Steve Smith, as he's demonstrated on the field, belongs in the very exclusive list of players with that kind of upside.

OK, if what i say is so ridiculous, show me a WR who has been drafted in the 2nd, early 3rd round who has significantly outplayed his draft position? Can Smith put up numbers to justify a 2nd round pick? sure, but upside from that spot, no chance.

I can find you dozens, but first let me pose a challenge for you- name me one player drafted #1 overall who has exceeded his draft position. Then get back to me on how stupid that definition of "upside" really is. I mean, when the last pick in the draft has SIGNIFICANTLY more "upside" than the #1 overall selection, it leads me to believe that "upside" is not something I want on my team.Now, on to the list of WRs who have outperformed a late 2nd round draft position. I'm going to use VBD as an objective metric- any WR who ranks in the top 18 in VBD will be said to have "outperformed" a late-2nd draft pick (i.e. pick 20 or later).

2007- Randy Moss (3rd), Terrell Owens (6th), Braylon Edwards (7th), Reggie Wayne (11th), Larry Fitzgerald (13th), Chad Johnson (15th).

2006- Marvin Harrison (8th), Terrell Owens (11th), Reggie Wayne (15th), Chad Johnson (17th)

2005- Steve Smith (6th), Larry Fitzgerald (9th), Santana Moss (10th), Chad Johnson (11th), Joey Galloway (15th), Torry Holt (16th), Chris Chambers (17th), Anquan Boldin (18th)

2004- Muhsin Muhammad (7th), Javon Walker (14th), Joe Horn (15th), Terrell Owens (16th), Marvin Harrison (17th), Drew Bennett (18th)

2003- Randy Moss (5th), Torry Holt (6th), Chad Johnson (11th), Anquan Boldin (14th), Marvin Harrison (15th), Hines Ward (17th), Derrick Mason (18th)

2002- Marvin Harrison (6th), Terrell Owens (11th), Hines Ward (12th), Eric Moulds (16th), Randy Moss (17th)

Want me to keep going on, or do you get the picture by now?

Oh, and before you pull out the argument that someone who gets drafted 24th and puts up a VBD value that ranks 18th only outperformed his draft position by 6 spots, I'll head you off at the pass. Not every draft slot is made equally. Drafting 24th and finishing 18th is not the same as drafting 124th and finishing 118th. According to the handy pick value calculator, the difference between the 24th pick and the 18th pick is 153 points, or the same as the difference between pick 124 (11.04) and pick 91 (8.07)- three rounds worth of "upside".

 

[Chase Stuart]

I think he has a ton of talent, but between injury problems, QB issues, and inconsistency; he's really only posted one truly elite complete season in the past several years. I don't think he's undervalued. Lots of guys in that 5-10 range offer the same kind of risk/reward package. I just don't see a gap between Smith and guys like Boldin, Fitzgerald, Colston, Chad, and Holt.

None of those guys are 15 FP/G guys like Smith, though.

Fitzgerald is with Warner under center.

Yes, if Warner was the starter, I'd feel a bit differently about Fitzgerald. I'd still put him slightly below Smith on the high upside list, but he'd be the next guy on there.

 

[varmint cong]

I'm curious -- have any other QBs had Tommy John surgery and how did they fare the next year?This is the only thing that scares me about Smith.

Thought this was a good question. Anyone have any info on this? Many baseball pitchers come back as good or better after TJ surgery. Curious how QBs have done.

i read somewhere that only one previous QB had this surgery and never came back the same, however the doctor/trainer who was involved with that previous surgery is the same doc/trainer who is also involved with delhomme's.

 

[Tanner9919]

I'm curious -- have any other QBs had Tommy John surgery and how did they fare the next year?

This is the only thing that scares me about Smith.

you're looking at the bigger picture...Delhomme has missed 16 games in the past two seasons, and as a 33-yr old coming off Tommy John surgery, its hard for me to get my hopes up. Contrary to the title of this thread, I think Steve Smith is actually overrated..only once in his NFL career has he caught MORE than 88 balls in a single season, and only once in his NFL career has he caught more than 8 TDs, coincidentally, both stats occurring in the same year, 2005..

over his 7-yr NFL career, Smith averages just 61/838/5..WORSE numbers than Derrick Mason and MANY, MANY others...

Smith has missed 18 games over the past 4 seasons..In 2007, 21 different WR's caught 80 or more balls, 18 WR's caught 7 or more TDs, and 20 WR's had 1000+ yard seasons...if its 80/1000/7 you're looking for, you can EASILY find it elsewhere..

Smith and Delhomme combined, have missed a whopping 34 games over the past 4 seasons..

nothing screams 'stay away' more than Carolina's passing offense this season.

 

[Payne]

shhhhhhhh

 

[Ripleys]

Calvin is better.

I LOVE Smitty

 

[Jeff Haseley]

Calvin is better. I LOVE Smitty

 

[Burning Sensation]

Smith is valued right where he should be, and has little upside. When is the last time a WR who has an ADP in the mid-2nd to early 3rd really outplayed his draft position?

That's a ridiculous definition of "upside". According to that definition, the #1 draft pick has absolutely no upside at all, because no player can outperform that position. I mean, you might think that Tomlinson will rush for 2800 yards and 42 TDs, but why bother drafting him- it's not like that presents any upside, after all.A player with "upside" is a player with the potential to single-handedly carry you to a fantasy championship. Randy Moss has that kind of upside. Tom Brady has that kind of upside. Tomlinson, Peterson, and Westbrook have that kind of upside. Steve Smith, as he's demonstrated on the field, belongs in the very exclusive list of players with that kind of upside.

OK, if what i say is so ridiculous, show me a WR who has been drafted in the 2nd, early 3rd round who has significantly outplayed his draft position? Can Smith put up numbers to justify a 2nd round pick? sure, but upside from that spot, no chance.

I can find you dozens, but first let me pose a challenge for you- name me one player drafted #1 overall who has exceeded his draft position. Then get back to me on how stupid that definition of "upside" really is. I mean, when the last pick in the draft has SIGNIFICANTLY more "upside" than the #1 overall selection, it leads me to believe that "upside" is not something I want on my team.Now, on to the list of WRs who have outperformed a late 2nd round draft position. I'm going to use VBD as an objective metric- any WR who ranks in the top 18 in VBD will be said to have "outperformed" a late-2nd draft pick (i.e. pick 20 or later).

2007- Randy Moss (3rd), Terrell Owens (6th), Braylon Edwards (7th), Reggie Wayne (11th), Larry Fitzgerald (13th), Chad Johnson (15th).

2006- Marvin Harrison (8th), Terrell Owens (11th), Reggie Wayne (15th), Chad Johnson (17th)

2005- Steve Smith (6th), Larry Fitzgerald (9th), Santana Moss (10th), Chad Johnson (11th), Joey Galloway (15th), Torry Holt (16th), Chris Chambers (17th), Anquan Boldin (18th)

2004- Muhsin Muhammad (7th), Javon Walker (14th), Joe Horn (15th), Terrell Owens (16th), Marvin Harrison (17th), Drew Bennett (18th)

2003- Randy Moss (5th), Torry Holt (6th), Chad Johnson (11th), Anquan Boldin (14th), Marvin Harrison (15th), Hines Ward (17th), Derrick Mason (18th)

2002- Marvin Harrison (6th), Terrell Owens (11th), Hines Ward (12th), Eric Moulds (16th), Randy Moss (17th)

Want me to keep going on, or do you get the picture by now?

Oh, and before you pull out the argument that someone who gets drafted 24th and puts up a VBD value that ranks 18th only outperformed his draft position by 6 spots, I'll head you off at the pass. Not every draft slot is made equally. Drafting 24th and finishing 18th is not the same as drafting 124th and finishing 118th. According to the handy pick value calculator, the difference between the 24th pick and the 18th pick is 153 points, or the same as the difference between pick 124 (11.04) and pick 91 (8.07)- three rounds worth of "upside".

I think you are missing the point. The thread title is "Steve Smith is undervalued". The 1.1 pick certaintly cant exceed its draft position, but not many people are starting threads stating that LT is undervalued if he is consistently going 1.1.Your list of WR's is flawed as well. I didnt see one draft where Randy Moss went in the 2nd round last year. Braylon Edwards, seriously? Unless you where in a draft with a fortune teller, NO WAY somebody draftd him anywhere near the 2nd round. Fitz and CJ may have put up solid numbers last year, but i dont think their numbers made them undervalued compared to where they were taken.

 

[FreeBaGeL]

Whether or not Delhomme stays healthy is really only half important. Smith was fine with crap like Moore and Testeverde throwing him the ball. People are wildly underrating the David Carr effect.

We have two very talented WRs that have played with Carr, and with other QBs, they look like...

Andre Johnson was average with David Carr as his QB.

Andre Johnson was a monster with every other QB he's played with (Rosenfels, Schaub)

Steve Smith was garbage with David Carr as his QB

Steve Smith was great with every other QB he's ever played with.

Seriously, check out Steve Smith's splits last year in the 5 games he played with Carr vs. the 10 games he played with other QBs (and these other guys include the likes of Vinny Testeverde and Matt Moore, so it's not even good QBs, just not guys that are as monstrously awful as Carr);

With Carr: 33.8 yards per game, 0.2 TDs per game

With anyone else: 83.3 yards per game, 0.6 TDs per game

Projecting his numbers with other QBs over a full season (I know that's risky business) that's 1330yds and 10TDs even though he was playing with some QBs that were still pretty bad (Testeverde/Moore).

 

[QUEZILLA]

I wouldn't draft any WR that had to go up against Tampa twice.

 

[tombonneau]

Whether or not Delhomme stays healthy is really only half important. Smith was fine with crap like Moore and Testeverde throwing him the ball. People are wildly underrating the David Carr effect.

We have two very talented WRs that have played with Carr, and with other QBs, they look like...

Andre Johnson was average with David Carr as his QB.

Andre Johnson was a monster with every other QB he's played with (Rosenfels, Schaub)

Steve Smith was garbage with David Carr as his QB

Steve Smith was great with every other QB he's ever played with.

Seriously, check out Steve Smith's splits last year in the 5 games he played with Carr vs. the 10 games he played with other QBs (and these other guys include the likes of Vinny Testeverde and Matt Moore, so it's not even good QBs, just not guys that are as monstrously awful as Carr);

With Carr: 33.8 yards per game, 0.2 TDs per game

With anyone else: 83.3 yards per game, 0.6 TDs per game

Projecting his numbers with other QBs over a full season (I know that's risky business) that's 1330yds and 10TDs even though he was playing with some QBs that were still pretty bad (Testeverde/Moore).

I didn't really comprehend how bad David Carr is until I watched Panthers games last year.