Steven Jackson....convince me on him. (1 Viewer)

[eoMMan]

He's going to be staring at me with my pick. The better backs will all be gone at this point (AP, MJD, Rice, CJ, Gore, etc.). For whatever reason, Jackson doesn't wow me. It seems like he is always getting nicked up and the Rams are HORRIBLE. Add to all of that the fact that they might be starting a rookie at QB and how teams will stack the box to stop Jackson.....it doesn't look good.

I guess the positives are that he has still produced under bad circumstances and the Rams will have an easier schedule this year.

Still, I don't know about this guy.

 

[dansav]

if "I am staring at him with my pick" I will take Andre Johnson and pair him up with a Mendenhall or Greene on the way back in a hearbeat.

SJax has plenty of opportunity and will "get his" assuming he is healthy all year but since this is not the 2006 fantasy football draft I would take AJ over him.

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

6.8 rushing tds per year (double digit TDs once)

1.16 receiving tds per year

has missed 12 games in 6 seasons

averages 1,110 yards rushing per year

averages 46 receptions per year

------------------------------------------

So unless you are in a heavy yardage or ppr league I would look else where. The guy does nothing but disappoint his owners. Let someone else take him and hope his production is able to live up to his talent level, while you draft more of a sure thing.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

You shouldn't. At what point in the draft is he a must pick? He ends up drafted in the middle of the 1st round...take DWill, Turner, lots of other choices. Or take a top flight WR in PPR leagues and grab Charles a round or two later. no reason to grab Sjax and I find it hard for people in dynasty that own him to be objective, and equally hard for people in redraft leagues to go in with a battle plan that includes him. Too much to worry about.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Unquestioned stud production ability

Can produce through injuries

One of the last true feature backs and one of the best pass catching backs in the league

Puts up 100+ total yards most every game even with guys like Keith Null and Kyle Boller at QB

TDs are likely to come back up to 6-8 at worst

STL OL young and likely to improve

STL offense cant get any worse than last year - represents SJax floor

SJax has more upside than Mendenhall or Greene or any other RB you can get outside of the top 7 - he's the only back outside of the top 7 that has demonstrated uberstud ability, and he's just now turning 27 - still very much in his physical prime.

Id love to get him in the late first of a PPR league - a little tougher sell in nonPPR as guys like Greene, Wells, Benson move a little closer to the top tier.

 

[zed2283]

You shouldn't. I wouldn't draft him in the first round.

 

[baconisgood]

You shouldn't. At what point in the draft is he a must pick? He ends up drafted in the middle of the 1st round...take DWill, Turner, lots of other choices. Or take a top flight WR in PPR leagues and grab Charles a round or two later. no reason to grab Sjax and I find it hard for people in dynasty that own him to be objective, and equally hard for people in redraft leagues to go in with a battle plan that includes him. Too much to worry about.

The case for SJax is pretty simple. Not counting his rookie season 116 yards a game and 0.62 TDs per game which puts him on pace for a 1856 yard 10 TD season if he plays 16 games.

 

[TheWick]

6.8 rushing tds per year (double digit TDs once)1.16 receiving tds per yearhas missed 12 games in 6 seasonsaverages 1,110 yards rushing per yearaverages 46 receptions per year------------------------------------------So unless you are in a heavy yardage or ppr league I would look else where. The guy does nothing but disappoint his owners. Let someone else take him and hope his production is able to live up to his talent level, while you draft more of a sure thing.

He finished 10th last year in non-ppr leagues among RBs He Finished 8th in PPR leagues last year among RBsOn a team that scored 175 points total last year and scored only 16 total offensive TDs for the YEARMarc Bulger started 8 games, Kyle Boller started 4 games, Keith Null started 4 games all 3 quaterbacks had ratings of 70.7, 61.2, and 49.9.We are talking about a HISTORICALLY bad offense that was ravaged by injuries.Steven Jackson's totals = 1416 rushing (4.4 avg) 4TDs / 51 rec 322 yards Sure he has a rookie quaterback...but that rookie quaterback simply has to be better than anything that lined up under center last year for this team. His upside is limited by the team he plays on, but his floor is one of the highest amond all first round picks. Even in years where he played 12 games he still finished in the top 15 in PPR and Non-PPR leagues. He may miss a game or 2 but he is almost a LOCK for a top 10 RB finish in all formats except TD heavy.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Unquestioned stud production ability

Can produce through injuries

One of the last true feature backs and one of the best pass catching backs in the league

Puts up 100+ total yards most every game even with guys like Keith Null and Kyle Boller at QB

TDs are likely to come back up to 6-8 at worst

STL OL young and likely to improve

STL offense cant get any worse than last year - represents SJax floor

SJax has more upside than Mendenhall or Greene or any other RB you can get outside of the top 7 - he's the only back outside of the top 7 that has demonstrated uberstud ability, and he's just now turning 27 - still very much in his physical prime.

Id love to get him in the late first of a PPR league - a little tougher sell in nonPPR as guys like Greene, Wells, Benson move a little closer to the top tier.

You may want to rethink that a bit

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

Drafting Steven Jackson feels like kissing your sister. Just dont like him. Sure he represents value in the late first, but Ill pass

 

[Donsmith753]

He has nice hair.

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

Unquestioned stud production ability

Can produce through injuries

One of the last true feature backs and one of the best pass catching backs in the league

Puts up 100+ total yards most every game even with guys like Keith Null and Kyle Boller at QB

TDs are likely to come back up to 6-8 at worst

STL OL young and likely to improve

STL offense cant get any worse than last year - represents SJax floor

SJax has more upside than Mendenhall or Greene or any other RB you can get outside of the top 7 - he's the only back outside of the top 7 that has demonstrated uberstud ability, and he's just now turning 27 - still very much in his physical prime.

Id love to get him in the late first of a PPR league - a little tougher sell in nonPPR as guys like Greene, Wells, Benson move a little closer to the top tier.

D.Williams has been uberstud like and I would have zero problem taking R.Mathews, J.Stewart, Ryan Grant, or Pierre Thomas over SJax. I can't think of another RB that has had ONE good year and 5 mediocre/bad years, & gets treated like SJax does. He may have a good year, but year in and year out the guy is a fantasy disappointment.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

You shouldn't. At what point in the draft is he a must pick? He ends up drafted in the middle of the 1st round...take DWill, Turner, lots of other choices. Or take a top flight WR in PPR leagues and grab Charles a round or two later. no reason to grab Sjax and I find it hard for people in dynasty that own him to be objective, and equally hard for people in redraft leagues to go in with a battle plan that includes him. Too much to worry about.

The case for SJax is pretty simple. Not counting his rookie season 116 yards a game and 0.62 TDs per game which puts him on pace for a 1856 yard 10 TD season if he plays 16 games.

How many times has he hit 1,856 yds? What is his avg Tds per season the past 3 years??? Is he going into year 7 with an injury chart that is mounting year by year? Does he play on soft grass or a concrete jungle? Please understand that I was never in doubt of his talent but when he was drafted I posted that his running style mixed with the hard surface of the dome he plays in regularly would not be a good mix. So many safer choices in the 1st round.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

He has nice hair.

Doesn't everyone have nice hair in Scotland?

 

[TheWick]

Unquestioned stud production ability

Can produce through injuries

One of the last true feature backs and one of the best pass catching backs in the league

Puts up 100+ total yards most every game even with guys like Keith Null and Kyle Boller at QB

TDs are likely to come back up to 6-8 at worst

STL OL young and likely to improve

STL offense cant get any worse than last year - represents SJax floor

SJax has more upside than Mendenhall or Greene or any other RB you can get outside of the top 7 - he's the only back outside of the top 7 that has demonstrated uberstud ability, and he's just now turning 27 - still very much in his physical prime.

Id love to get him in the late first of a PPR league - a little tougher sell in nonPPR as guys like Greene, Wells, Benson move a little closer to the top tier.

D.Williams has been uberstud like and I would have zero problem taking R.Mathews, J.Stewart, Ryan Grant, or Pierre Thomas over SJax. I can't think of another RB that has had ONE good year and 5 mediocre/bad years, & gets treated like SJax does. He may have a good year, but year in and year out the guy is a fantasy disappointment.

Yeah because all those guys year in and year out put up big fantasy numbers. There are just as many injury concerns with any of those players. DeAngelo Williams has finished and RB1 and RB14 the last 2 years and was off the radar before that and even if healthy all year will not get the kind of touches Jackson will.

Ryan Grant only had 4 TDs in 2008...do you expect last years 11 to now be the norm? We know he wil trail Sjax in yards by a large margin.

If you don't like the player I understand but your arguement has zero merit.

 

[TheWick]

You shouldn't. At what point in the draft is he a must pick? He ends up drafted in the middle of the 1st round...take DWill, Turner, lots of other choices. Or take a top flight WR in PPR leagues and grab Charles a round or two later. no reason to grab Sjax and I find it hard for people in dynasty that own him to be objective, and equally hard for people in redraft leagues to go in with a battle plan that includes him. Too much to worry about.

The case for SJax is pretty simple. Not counting his rookie season 116 yards a game and 0.62 TDs per game which puts him on pace for a 1856 yard 10 TD season if he plays 16 games.

How many times has he hit 1,856 yds? What is his avg Tds per season the past 3 years??? Is he going into year 7 with an injury chart that is mounting year by year? Does he play on soft grass or a concrete jungle? Please understand that I was never in doubt of his talent but when he was drafted I posted that his running style mixed with the hard surface of the dome he plays in regularly would not be a good mix. So many safer choices in the 1st round.

1 LaDainian Tomlinson rb 2005--2009 1518 6588 4.3399 320 84 349 238 1928 8.1008 84 9 1438.1000 2 Steven Jackson rb 2005--2009 1416 6046 4.2698 280 37 354 262 2096 8.0000 87 7 1082.3000 3 Thomas Jones rb 2005--2009 1542 6374 4.1336 304 42 185 137 778 5.6788 35 3 985.0000 4 Brian Westbrook rb 2005--2009 969 4374 4.5139 224 27 432 307 2670 8.6971 114 19 980.4000 5 Frank Gore rb 2005--2009 1167 5553 4.7584 233 32 318 224 1831 8.1741 72 7 972.4000 6 Larry Johnson rb 2005--2009 1280 5538 4.3266 286 45 195 132 1093 8.2803 51 4 961.3000 7 Maurice Jones-Drew rb 2006--2009 840 3922 4.6690 206 48 262 201 1785 8.8806 82 5 888.7000 8 Clinton Portis rb 2005--2009 1268 5279 4.1632 262 39 175 131 1050 8.0153 50 1 882.5000 9 Marion Barber rb 2005--2009 927 3984 4.2977 239 43 208 163 1231 7.5521 58 6 815.5000 10 Willis McGahee rb 2005--2009 1158 4680 4.0415 244 37 168 128 823 6.4297 38 3 790.3000 2005-2009...how does it get any safer than that?

 

[CB31]

Ok, I'll try.

1) 2nd in the league in rushing yards

2) Average of 47 catches per season (if you're in a PPR)

3) Like Sig said, he did 1 and 2 in the worst possible situation

4) Only 27 years old

5) Has averages 27.3, 23, 24, and 25 touches per game since '06, making him one of the very few every-down backs

6) Can't get any worse...can it?

 

[zed2283]

I'm not going to try to confuse myself with facts, but I see Steven Jackson the same as how Fred Taylor used to be. You know the guy has great talent, and you know he's going to explode one of these years, but in the end it's just best to let someone else have the heartburn, disappointment, etc.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

At SJax's ADP, I'd be happy to grab him and go if it was non-PPR. He is an elite talent, and if the Rams even improve incrementally with a new QB, improvement in the line, he can only get better. I think he has already produced his production floor within his prime years. He probably only has a couple more prime years left, and he is one of the true bell cows in the NFL. A lot of people overuse the term "bellcow", but not in SJax case. He will consistently get you plenty of FF points because of his incredible percentage of team offense. His upside is less than the top 5 RBs, but his floor is very high.

In PPR, If AJ is unavailable, I'd also consider Greene or Turner, but since I like to take chances more with my round 3-7 picks, I like SJax's safety net standing. He won't lose you your league. It will be the other picks that will eventually make your team shine.

If I am in your shoes, I take SJax and be happy. And I'd worry more about what falls to me in the next rounds.

 

[PranksterJD]

D.Williams has been uberstud like and I would have zero problem taking R.Mathews, J.Stewart, Ryan Grant, or Pierre Thomas over SJax. I can't think of another RB that has had ONE good year and 5 mediocre/bad years, & gets treated like SJax does. He may have a good year, but year in and year out the guy is a fantasy disappointment.

In what world is 1700+ yards a fantasy disappointment?

 

[CB31]

I'm not going to try to confuse myself with facts, but I see Steven Jackson the same as how Fred Taylor used to be. You know the guy has great talent, and you know he's going to explode one of these years, but in the end it's just best to let someone else have the heartburn, disappointment, etc.

He was 10th in non-ppr and 9th in PPR, and he played in 15 games. How is that "disappointing"? If you're getting him at 7th or later, and he did what he did with Keith Null and Kyle Boller at QB on a 1-15 team in 15 games, isn't that a good pick?

 

[zed2283]

I'm not going to try to confuse myself with facts, but I see Steven Jackson the same as how Fred Taylor used to be. You know the guy has great talent, and you know he's going to explode one of these years, but in the end it's just best to let someone else have the heartburn, disappointment, etc.

He was 10th in non-ppr and 9th in PPR, and he played in 15 games. How is that "disappointing"? If you're getting him at 7th or later, and he did what he did with Keith Null and Kyle Boller at QB on a 1-15 team in 15 games, isn't that a good pick?

Yeah, I guess at the end of the 1st maybe it is a good pick. But at that point you also have to weigh in the VBD, as someone said earlier. Why shouldn't I take the top WR on my board and grab a RB on the way back?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

He's started 38 games out of 48 the past 3 years...can we start there?

His Td totals the past 3 years are 4, 8, and 6...That's 18 or less than .5 per start.

Last year when it mattered most in weeks 13 and beyond...18/39 20/82, missed week 15, and 20/63...Not a single Td all of the post season for FF owners...have at it guys.

Are people arguing just to do it or are folks serious that they want SJax in the middle of the 1st? He is not putting owners over the top each year, not even close the past 3 seasons. Pull the SJax threads from the forums the past 2-3 years, lot of bellyaching and crying.

 

[TheNext0]

Just wanted to chime in that, last year, a big selling point on SJax was that the Rams couldn't be worse than the year before. Well, turns out they did much worse and his TD totals suffered. What was nice was that the yardage was still there, which says a lot for him as a runner. I had him, watched a lot of his games, and he just runs like a beast.

He'll be available to me this year, and I kind of feel like I don't want to roll the dice with him two years in a row. I'm going to have to see something special from Bradford in training camp / preseason to really get excited about SJax again.

 

[CB31]

He's started 38 games out of 48 the past 3 years...can we start there?

His Td totals the past 3 years are 4, 8, and 6...That's 18 or less than .5 per start.

Last year when it mattered most in weeks 13 and beyond...18/39 20/82, missed week 15, and 20/63...Not a single Td all of the post season for FF owners...have at it guys.

Are people arguing just to do it or are folks serious that they want SJax in the middle of the 1st? He is not putting owners over the top each year, not even close the past 3 seasons. Pull the SJax threads from the forums the past 2-3 years, lot of bellyaching and crying.

And yet you'd rather take DeAngelo, who had 113 TOTAL yards and zero TDs over the last FOUR weeks, not playing in the last 2 weeks? Or Michael Turner, who put up 40 total yards and zero TDs from week 11 on? Seems hypocritical to me.

 

[Raiderfan32904]

He is not putting owners over the top each year, not even close the past 3 seasons. Pull the SJax threads from the forums the past 2-3 years, lot of bellyaching and crying.

Do those owners pin their hopes and dreams of an FF championship on a single player in the first round? Those whiners sound like a bunch of guppies. Championships are made in the 3 through 7th rounds, and some key in-season moves. Variances of points scored by your #1 guy wont make much of a difference if your team just flat sucks.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

He's started 38 games out of 48 the past 3 years...can we start there?

His Td totals the past 3 years are 4, 8, and 6...That's 18 or less than .5 per start.

Last year when it mattered most in weeks 13 and beyond...18/39 20/82, missed week 15, and 20/63...Not a single Td all of the post season for FF owners...have at it guys.

Are people arguing just to do it or are folks serious that they want SJax in the middle of the 1st? He is not putting owners over the top each year, not even close the past 3 seasons. Pull the SJax threads from the forums the past 2-3 years, lot of bellyaching and crying.

And yet you'd rather take DeAngelo, who had 113 TOTAL yards and zero TDs over the last FOUR weeks, not playing in the last 2 weeks? Or Michael Turner, who put up 40 total yards and zero TDs from week 11 on? Seems hypocritical to me.

I'll take prop bets for 2010 on DWill and Turner vs SJax in 2010, no problem.

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

D.Williams has been uberstud like and I would have zero problem taking R.Mathews, J.Stewart, Ryan Grant, or Pierre Thomas over SJax. I can't think of another RB that has had ONE good year and 5 mediocre/bad years, & gets treated like SJax does. He may have a good year, but year in and year out the guy is a fantasy disappointment.

In what world is 1700+ yards a fantasy disappointment?

If yards are all you care about then he should be your 2nd pick in the draft. Good luck with that.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

He is not putting owners over the top each year, not even close the past 3 seasons. Pull the SJax threads from the forums the past 2-3 years, lot of bellyaching and crying.

Do those owners pin their hopes and dreams of an FF championship on a single player in the first round? Those whiners sound like a bunch of guppies. Championships are made in the 3 through 7th rounds, and some key in-season moves. Variances of points scored by your #1 guy wont make much of a difference if your team just flat sucks.

Tell that to LT owners in 2006, Chris Johnson owners in 2009, many times the 1st round pick makes it almost impossible for owners to not go far or win the whole thing if they are even half decent as assembling a team. I say this every year...in fact every few months but it's a handful and just a handful of players that truly make the difference for the season. You can go thru your league drafts from the past 4 or 5 years and every round or two in those middle rounds there will only be a player or two that truly helps their owner.

 

[CB31]

He is not putting owners over the top each year, not even close the past 3 seasons. Pull the SJax threads from the forums the past 2-3 years, lot of bellyaching and crying.

Do those owners pin their hopes and dreams of an FF championship on a single player in the first round? Those whiners sound like a bunch of guppies. Championships are made in the 3 through 7th rounds, and some key in-season moves. Variances of points scored by your #1 guy wont make much of a difference if your team just flat sucks.

Tell that to LT owners in 2006, Chris Johnson owners in 2009, many times the 1st round pick makes it almost impossible for owners to not go far or win the whole thing if they are even half decent as assembling a team. I say this every year...in fact every few months but it's a handful and just a handful of players that truly make the difference for the season. You can go thru your league drafts from the past 4 or 5 years and every round or two in those middle rounds there will only be a player or two that truly helps their owner.

Once again, neither DWill nor Turner, who you'd pick over SJax, did any of that for you last year. You're allowed to not like Jackson, but if it's the "he didn't help in the playoffs" argument, we've gotta put both those guys in that boat as well.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Unquestioned stud production ability

Can produce through injuries

One of the last true feature backs and one of the best pass catching backs in the league

Puts up 100+ total yards most every game even with guys like Keith Null and Kyle Boller at QB

TDs are likely to come back up to 6-8 at worst

STL OL young and likely to improve

STL offense cant get any worse than last year - represents SJax floor

SJax has more upside than Mendenhall or Greene or any other RB you can get outside of the top 7 - he's the only back outside of the top 7 that has demonstrated uberstud ability, and he's just now turning 27 - still very much in his physical prime.

Id love to get him in the late first of a PPR league - a little tougher sell in nonPPR as guys like Greene, Wells, Benson move a little closer to the top tier.

You may want to rethink that a bit

STL had the lowest point total of any offense in the last 3 seasons, I think its a safe bet that they can't get any worse.Jason Smith should be ready to step up in his second year, this year's second round pick Saffold will help immediately, and remember they signed one of the best centers in the league (Jason Brown) last year. The line should improve.

 

[baconisgood]

You shouldn't. At what point in the draft is he a must pick? He ends up drafted in the middle of the 1st round...take DWill, Turner, lots of other choices. Or take a top flight WR in PPR leagues and grab Charles a round or two later. no reason to grab Sjax and I find it hard for people in dynasty that own him to be objective, and equally hard for people in redraft leagues to go in with a battle plan that includes him. Too much to worry about.

The case for SJax is pretty simple. Not counting his rookie season 116 yards a game and 0.62 TDs per game which puts him on pace for a 1856 yard 10 TD season if he plays 16 games.

How many times has he hit 1,856 yds? What is his avg Tds per season the past 3 years??? Is he going into year 7 with an injury chart that is mounting year by year? Does he play on soft grass or a concrete jungle? Please understand that I was never in doubt of his talent but when he was drafted I posted that his running style mixed with the hard surface of the dome he plays in regularly would not be a good mix. So many safer choices in the 1st round.

The past 3 years he has averaged 113 y/g and 0.46 TDs per game. Over 16 games those totals would put him at RB#6-8 every year for the past 5 years. Since he is going at RB#7 those last 3 years are only "scary" due to his injury risk. As he is one of the few backs in the league to put up a truly monstrous season in 2009 he was RB#10In 2008 you needed your RB#3 to average 10.3 pts/game as Jackson's backup to get RB#6 pts from a Jackson draft pick. In 2007 10 pts a game from RB#3 gets you RB#7 productionin 2006 he was RB#3 (with production that would have been #1 or #2 in 80-90% of seasons in the NFL)in 2005 he was RB#7

 

[Ministry of Pain]

You shouldn't. At what point in the draft is he a must pick? He ends up drafted in the middle of the 1st round...take DWill, Turner, lots of other choices. Or take a top flight WR in PPR leagues and grab Charles a round or two later. no reason to grab Sjax and I find it hard for people in dynasty that own him to be objective, and equally hard for people in redraft leagues to go in with a battle plan that includes him. Too much to worry about.

The case for SJax is pretty simple. Not counting his rookie season 116 yards a game and 0.62 TDs per game which puts him on pace for a 1856 yard 10 TD season if he plays 16 games.

How many times has he hit 1,856 yds? What is his avg Tds per season the past 3 years???

Is he going into year 7 with an injury chart that is mounting year by year? Does he play on soft grass or a concrete jungle? Please understand that I was never in doubt of his talent but when he was drafted I posted that his running style mixed with the hard surface of the dome he plays in regularly would not be a good mix.

So many safer choices in the 1st round.

The past 3 years he has averaged 113 y/g and 0.46 TDs per game. Over 16 games those totals

As I posted, he has missed a lot of time the past 3 years, and even when he starts he's not 100%, going into year 7 for a RB with an injury resume...it's fine if you want to lock in on him Bacon in the 1st, just not a guy that I want on my roster, sorry.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Unquestioned stud production ability

Can produce through injuries

One of the last true feature backs and one of the best pass catching backs in the league

Puts up 100+ total yards most every game even with guys like Keith Null and Kyle Boller at QB

TDs are likely to come back up to 6-8 at worst

STL OL young and likely to improve

STL offense cant get any worse than last year - represents SJax floor

SJax has more upside than Mendenhall or Greene or any other RB you can get outside of the top 7 - he's the only back outside of the top 7 that has demonstrated uberstud ability, and he's just now turning 27 - still very much in his physical prime.

Id love to get him in the late first of a PPR league - a little tougher sell in nonPPR as guys like Greene, Wells, Benson move a little closer to the top tier.

You may want to rethink that a bit

STL had the lowest point total of any offense in the last 3 seasons, I think its a safe bet that they can't get any worse.Jason Smith should be ready to step up in his second year, this year's second round pick Saffold will help immediately, and remember they signed one of the best centers in the league (Jason Brown) last year. The line should improve.

As I wrote in the OL article..."The Rams are trying to get better but this OL is still a work in progress. Jason Smith is making the jump from RT to LT. He only played 330 snaps last year and looked promising only yielding two sacks and called for one penalty during that stretch. It is going to be a challenge for him at LT. When I watch him I don't always see a guy that has the speed and footwork to shine at LT. It's a tall order for him to protect a rookie QB's blind side. At RT, it looks like Rodger Staffold; a rookie will be given the chance to start. A rookie QB, rookie RT, and a LT that is doing it in the NFL for the 1st time...it just doesn't add up to success in 2010, sorry St Louis fans."I'm not saying SJax is not talented. If he was traded to San Fran for Frank Gore tomorrow I would have him up much higher on my charts...but he isn't and he's going to have a very challenged offense in 2010. St Louis was 1 game from tying Detroit for the worst record ever last year, let's have some perspective. Bradford is not signed and has very suspect protection. Jason Smith is not Jake Long, let's be clear here. Long was drafted a spot or two ahead of Smith and has 2 Pro Bowls in 2 seasons, Smith is not even close to that. He might be labeled a bust quickly. All we heard was how happy a guy he was, that doesn't always make for a good grinding LT in this league.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Unquestioned stud production ability

Can produce through injuries

One of the last true feature backs and one of the best pass catching backs in the league

Puts up 100+ total yards most every game even with guys like Keith Null and Kyle Boller at QB

TDs are likely to come back up to 6-8 at worst

STL OL young and likely to improve

STL offense cant get any worse than last year - represents SJax floor

SJax has more upside than Mendenhall or Greene or any other RB you can get outside of the top 7 - he's the only back outside of the top 7 that has demonstrated uberstud ability, and he's just now turning 27 - still very much in his physical prime.

Id love to get him in the late first of a PPR league - a little tougher sell in nonPPR as guys like Greene, Wells, Benson move a little closer to the top tier.

You may want to rethink that a bit

STL had the lowest point total of any offense in the last 3 seasons, I think its a safe bet that they can't get any worse.Jason Smith should be ready to step up in his second year, this year's second round pick Saffold will help immediately, and remember they signed one of the best centers in the league (Jason Brown) last year. The line should improve.

As I wrote in the OL article..."The Rams are trying to get better but this OL is still a work in progress. Jason Smith is making the jump from RT to LT. He only played 330 snaps last year and looked promising only yielding two sacks and called for one penalty during that stretch. It is going to be a challenge for him at LT. When I watch him I don't always see a guy that has the speed and footwork to shine at LT. It's a tall order for him to protect a rookie QB's blind side. At RT, it looks like Rodger Staffold; a rookie will be given the chance to start. A rookie QB, rookie RT, and a LT that is doing it in the NFL for the 1st time...it just doesn't add up to success in 2010, sorry St Louis fans."I'm not saying SJax is not talented. If he was traded to San Fran for Frank Gore tomorrow I would have him up much higher on my charts...but he isn't and he's going to have a very challenged offense in 2010. St Louis was 1 game from tying Detroit for the worst record ever last year, let's have some perspective. Bradford is not signed and has very suspect protection. Jason Smith is not Jake Long, let's be clear here. Long was drafted a spot or two ahead of Smith and has 2 Pro Bowls in 2 seasons, Smith is not even close to that. He might be labeled a bust quickly. All we heard was how happy a guy he was, that doesn't always make for a good grinding LT in this league.

success? no. improvement? yes.

 

[baconisgood]

Unquestioned stud production ability

Can produce through injuries

One of the last true feature backs and one of the best pass catching backs in the league

Puts up 100+ total yards most every game even with guys like Keith Null and Kyle Boller at QB

TDs are likely to come back up to 6-8 at worst

STL OL young and likely to improve

STL offense cant get any worse than last year - represents SJax floor

SJax has more upside than Mendenhall or Greene or any other RB you can get outside of the top 7 - he's the only back outside of the top 7 that has demonstrated uberstud ability, and he's just now turning 27 - still very much in his physical prime.

Id love to get him in the late first of a PPR league - a little tougher sell in nonPPR as guys like Greene, Wells, Benson move a little closer to the top tier.

You may want to rethink that a bit

STL had the lowest point total of any offense in the last 3 seasons, I think its a safe bet that they can't get any worse.Jason Smith should be ready to step up in his second year, this year's second round pick Saffold will help immediately, and remember they signed one of the best centers in the league (Jason Brown) last year. The line should improve.

As I wrote in the OL article..."The Rams are trying to get better but this OL is still a work in progress. Jason Smith is making the jump from RT to LT. He only played 330 snaps last year and looked promising only yielding two sacks and called for one penalty during that stretch. It is going to be a challenge for him at LT. When I watch him I don't always see a guy that has the speed and footwork to shine at LT. It's a tall order for him to protect a rookie QB's blind side. At RT, it looks like Rodger Staffold; a rookie will be given the chance to start. A rookie QB, rookie RT, and a LT that is doing it in the NFL for the 1st time...it just doesn't add up to success in 2010, sorry St Louis fans."I'm not saying SJax is not talented. If he was traded to San Fran for Frank Gore tomorrow I would have him up much higher on my charts...but he isn't and he's going to have a very challenged offense in 2010. St Louis was 1 game from tying Detroit for the worst record ever last year, let's have some perspective. Bradford is not signed and has very suspect protection. Jason Smith is not Jake Long, let's be clear here. Long was drafted a spot or two ahead of Smith and has 2 Pro Bowls in 2 seasons, Smith is not even close to that. He might be labeled a bust quickly. All we heard was how happy a guy he was, that doesn't always make for a good grinding LT in this league.

The problem I have with this analysis is that the guy primarily being replaced at LT (Barron) was rated as one of the worst Ts in the league last season and the QBs being replaced were also rated at the bottom. The Rams were SO bad that even a Rookie, Rookie, 2nd combination still stands a good chance at being an improvement.

As I posted, he has missed a lot of time the past 3 years, and even when he starts he's not 100%, going into year 7 for a RB with an injury resume...it's fine if you want to lock in on him Bacon in the 1st, just not a guy that I want on my roster, sorry.

I'm not talking about locking into him, I'm talking about why his probable value (12-14 games of very good production, 2-4 games of backup production) is worth right around where he is being drafted.

 

[Donsmith753]

He has nice hair.

Doesn't everyone have nice hair in Scotland?

Yeah and lots of it!

 

[Mello]

If he drops towards the end of the first round, I don't see how you can pass him up. There's an injury risk, but I don't think it's much higher than the baseline risk for RBs. He has shown the willingness to play through injuries and still perform at a high level. He's an extremely consistent RB the has no RBBC to worry about. Last year in my main league, he fell to 12th. I wasn't real high on him, but the value at 12 was too good to pass up with about every other top RB off the board. Carried me to first in my league during the regular season, outperforming all but 4 RBs chosen ahead of him. And that was with a down year in TDs. I wouldn't take him at his ADP of 8 but if he dropped to 10 or lower, I can't see passing him up.

 

[footballman_696969]

Since SJax has become the starter he has averaged:

20.2 carries at 4.24 yards/carry = 85.65 yards/game = 1370 yards/season

3.73 catches/game at 7.96 yards/catch = 59.68 catches at 475 yards/season

0.63 total tds/game = 10 total tds/season

1845 yards, 60 catches, and 10 tds averaged over 10 seasons = 304.5 points/season in PPR

This guy is an absolute beast when it comes to PPR leagues. His production when healthy has been awesome. I noticed that someone mentioned that he didn't put up good numbers down the stretch in fantasy playoffs last year. That is because the guy was struggling with a back injury. Take a look at what he did in the fantasy playoffs in the three years prior to that. The only one knock against this guy is that he can't stay healthy. He has only played one 16 game season in the last 6 years. But every player has an injury risk to some extent and no one you pick at the end of the first is going to be perfect. Other than that you can't say much bad about this guy. Sure he is on a very bad team.. But this same team has been very bad for the few seasons. Sure the O-Line isn't great this year.. but it hasn't been that great the last few seasons. This guy seems to consistantly produce no matter what when he is healthy. Looking at what he has done in the past I don't see how you can't say that SJax has a very high floor and a very high ceiling. I would love him in the late first in a PPR league. Who would you rather have? Michael Turner is consistant, but he doesn't catch enough passes. DeAngelo Williams is uber talented, but he's got to share the load with another uber talented RB. You could go with Randy Moss, Reggie Wayne, Larry Fitzgerald or even Miles Austn in the late first, but I'm not in love with any of these guys this year and chances are that one of them will still be there in the early 2nd.

 

[MongoL3]

Drafting Steven Jackson feels like kissing your sister. Just dont like him. Sure he represents value in the late first, but Ill pass

I'll pass on him and Gore all day. Ive had both in the past and they always seem to leave me wanting more....

 

[sholditch]

Unquestioned stud production ability

Can produce through injuries

One of the last true feature backs and one of the best pass catching backs in the league

Puts up 100+ total yards most every game even with guys like Keith Null and Kyle Boller at QB

TDs are likely to come back up to 6-8 at worst

STL OL young and likely to improve

STL offense cant get any worse than last year - represents SJax floor

SJax has more upside than Mendenhall or Greene or any other RB you can get outside of the top 7 - he's the only back outside of the top 7 that has demonstrated uberstud ability, and he's just now turning 27 - still very much in his physical prime.

Id love to get him in the late first of a PPR league - a little tougher sell in nonPPR as guys like Greene, Wells, Benson move a little closer to the top tier.

I have been one of his biggest detractors the past few years where his ADP was seemingly built on his one stud season. Now it seems like his ADP is finally going to reflect the inherent risk he represents. I only take issue with the bolded statement: regardless of age, anyone who has been asked to carry the load he has and suffered the injuries he has is on the downslope of his career, so I have him rated much lower in dynasty than in redraft. If I am looking at him in the early second I would not hesitate to draft him.

 

[pantherclub]

So the question was asked earlier I would love to hear some of your answers:

At what point/pick in the draft do you absolutely have to draft him? For me if he is there in the 3rd for some insane reason I would have to take him. But not before.

 

[sholditch]

I think him falling further than 2.4 is insanity in a 12-teamer.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

So the question was asked earlier I would love to hear some of your answers:At what point/pick in the draft do you absolutely have to draft him? For me if he is there in the 3rd for some insane reason I would have to take him. But not before.

I would smile like the cat who ate the canary if I can get him in the 2nd - means he's your RB2, or you got a sick WR1 to team him with.

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

Unquestioned stud production ability

Can produce through injuries

One of the last true feature backs and one of the best pass catching backs in the league

Puts up 100+ total yards most every game even with guys like Keith Null and Kyle Boller at QB

TDs are likely to come back up to 6-8 at worst

STL OL young and likely to improve

STL offense cant get any worse than last year - represents SJax floor

SJax has more upside than Mendenhall or Greene or any other RB you can get outside of the top 7 - he's the only back outside of the top 7 that has demonstrated uberstud ability, and he's just now turning 27 - still very much in his physical prime.

Id love to get him in the late first of a PPR league - a little tougher sell in nonPPR as guys like Greene, Wells, Benson move a little closer to the top tier.

I have been one of his biggest detractors the past few years where his ADP was seemingly built on his one stud season. Now it seems like his ADP is finally going to reflect the inherent risk he represents. I only take issue with the bolded statement: regardless of age, anyone who has been asked to carry the load he has and suffered the injuries he has is on the downslope of his career, so I have him rated much lower in dynasty than in redraft. If I am looking at him in the early second I would not hesitate to draft him.

Tomlinson's record breaking season came at 27 years old, and he had more mileage on him than SJax at the time.

 

[KellysHeroes]

If hes on the board after AJ / Fitz / Wayne / Marshall then I'll consider him.

Usually it the 1st big 4 RBs off / then AJ and Gore / then maybe a QB / Fitz... usually around where Fitz goes is where SJax goes and I rather Wayne or Marshall myself and just get a RB in the 2nd. The RB field is becoming very deep.

 

[David Yudkin]

Here are the fantasy ppg totals for RBs with at least 500 touches over the past 5 seasons (0 ppr):

1 LaDainian Tomlinson 18.44

2 Chris Johnson 17.93

3 Tiki Barber 17.12

4 Adrian Peterson 16.91

5 Steven Jackson 15.45

6 Brian Westbrook 15.32

7 Shaun Alexander 14.25

8 Maurice Jones-Drew 14.20

9 Clinton Portis 13.79

10 Larry Johnson 13.76

11 Frank Gore 13.33

12 Joseph Addai 12.74

13 Matt Forte 12.73

14 Thomas Jones 12.55

15 Ronnie Brown 12.36

16 DeAngelo Williams 11.65

17 Ryan Grant 11.30

18 Kevin Smith 11.03

19 Marion Barber 10.87

20 Edgerrin James 10.73

The guy's been a stud when he plays. Sure, he may miss a game here and there, but you can't argue that on a ppg basis he hasn't been one of the best and consistent producers.

 

[heidbrink]

His health is my primary concern.

I'm surprised nobody in this thread has mentioned that he had back surgery in April.

 

[Buddy Ball 2K3]

Unquestioned stud production ability

Can produce through injuries

One of the last true feature backs and one of the best pass catching backs in the league

Puts up 100+ total yards most every game even with guys like Keith Null and Kyle Boller at QB

TDs are likely to come back up to 6-8 at worst

STL OL young and likely to improve

STL offense cant get any worse than last year - represents SJax floor

SJax has more upside than Mendenhall or Greene or any other RB you can get outside of the top 7 - he's the only back outside of the top 7 that has demonstrated uberstud ability, and he's just now turning 27 - still very much in his physical prime.

Id love to get him in the late first of a PPR league - a little tougher sell in nonPPR as guys like Greene, Wells, Benson move a little closer to the top tier.

I have been one of his biggest detractors the past few years where his ADP was seemingly built on his one stud season. Now it seems like his ADP is finally going to reflect the inherent risk he represents. I only take issue with the bolded statement: regardless of age, anyone who has been asked to carry the load he has and suffered the injuries he has is on the downslope of his career, so I have him rated much lower in dynasty than in redraft. If I am looking at him in the early second I would not hesitate to draft him.

Tomlinson's record breaking season came at 27 years old, and he had more mileage on him than SJax at the time.

I think this is pretty much bunk. SJax (IMO more talented than Tomlinson) has played behind horrible offensive lines. The guy gets beaten up every single year. Tomlinson had more carries but there is no way that you can convince me that SJax has not taken more damage in the same amount of time.

 

[heidbrink]

Unquestioned stud production ability

Can produce through injuries

One of the last true feature backs and one of the best pass catching backs in the league

Puts up 100+ total yards most every game even with guys like Keith Null and Kyle Boller at QB

TDs are likely to come back up to 6-8 at worst

STL OL young and likely to improve

STL offense cant get any worse than last year - represents SJax floor

SJax has more upside than Mendenhall or Greene or any other RB you can get outside of the top 7 - he's the only back outside of the top 7 that has demonstrated uberstud ability, and he's just now turning 27 - still very much in his physical prime.

Id love to get him in the late first of a PPR league - a little tougher sell in nonPPR as guys like Greene, Wells, Benson move a little closer to the top tier.

I have been one of his biggest detractors the past few years where his ADP was seemingly built on his one stud season. Now it seems like his ADP is finally going to reflect the inherent risk he represents. I only take issue with the bolded statement: regardless of age, anyone who has been asked to carry the load he has and suffered the injuries he has is on the downslope of his career, so I have him rated much lower in dynasty than in redraft. If I am looking at him in the early second I would not hesitate to draft him.

Tomlinson's record breaking season came at 27 years old, and he had more mileage on him than SJax at the time.

I think this is pretty much bunk. SJax (IMO more talented than Tomlinson) has played behind horrible offensive lines. The guy gets beaten up every single year. Tomlinson had more carries but there is no way that you can convince me that SJax has not taken more damage in the same amount of time.

I think he is perhaps the most punishing runner in the NFL. That combined with his huge workload has gotta take a huge toll on his body.