cstu
Footballguy
He had a faster 20 yard split at the combine than Sproles.
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Steven Jackson to ATL (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Nucker101
- Start date
Concept Coop
Footballguy
It's worth pointing out that the elusive rankings love Rodgers. He's breaking tackles at a pretty high rate, which is a good sign.
I don't think he's Sproles, by any means. But I don't think he as bad as his raw YPC suggests either.
I don't think he's Sproles, by any means. But I don't think he as bad as his raw YPC suggests either.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I agree with what most have been saying here that Jackson should be able to get double digit TD in Atlanta and that will make him a RB1 most likely in 2013.
From what I saw of Jackson last season he is has not lost any ability. Still as talented now and in a improved situation.
I do not think Jackson's workload will have any bearing on his ability as a RB in years beyond 2013 at all. I actually consider his former workload a positive. What does concern me about him long term is his age. Most RB will have a decline when they cross the 30 threshold. I do think he could be a productive player even beyond 2013 however and might be a useful but declining player in the 2 seasons following this one. I would not expect much after he turns 32 and project a more dramatic fall off at that point, until he declines to a point that he needs to be replaced.
So a very good season in 2013 with the chance to repeat that in 2014 followed by a likely 20% reduction in performance in 2015 with an outside chance of RB3 numbers in 2016 if he does well but 2015/2016 you would likely not want to be starting him if he is still with the team.
The Falcons have gone down this road before with Turner now so I see them planning on Jackson being that guy for them until he does decline too much as Turner now has.
I do not see Rodgers as a threat to Jackson's opportunity. I see Rodgers as a nice receiving RB like Mewelde Moore who will limit Jackson's targets in the passing game but is no contest to Jackson as a runner.
From what I saw of Jackson last season he is has not lost any ability. Still as talented now and in a improved situation.
I do not think Jackson's workload will have any bearing on his ability as a RB in years beyond 2013 at all. I actually consider his former workload a positive. What does concern me about him long term is his age. Most RB will have a decline when they cross the 30 threshold. I do think he could be a productive player even beyond 2013 however and might be a useful but declining player in the 2 seasons following this one. I would not expect much after he turns 32 and project a more dramatic fall off at that point, until he declines to a point that he needs to be replaced.
So a very good season in 2013 with the chance to repeat that in 2014 followed by a likely 20% reduction in performance in 2015 with an outside chance of RB3 numbers in 2016 if he does well but 2015/2016 you would likely not want to be starting him if he is still with the team.
The Falcons have gone down this road before with Turner now so I see them planning on Jackson being that guy for them until he does decline too much as Turner now has.
I do not see Rodgers as a threat to Jackson's opportunity. I see Rodgers as a nice receiving RB like Mewelde Moore who will limit Jackson's targets in the passing game but is no contest to Jackson as a runner.
ghostguy123
Footballguy
Did you just use 2016 and Steven Jackson in the same sentence??? Yeesh
Wise Old Owl
Footballguy
If Rodgers was ever going to have the emergence that people keep expecting him to have it would have been last year when the wheels fell off Turner. I've heard that he's anywhere from a MJD/Rice clone to the next Sporles, hes not strong or fast enough to be either.
You're deluding yourself if you think that Jackson won't get the lion's share and Rodgers will be anything more than a COP back. Even with a reduced workload (by his standards) I think Jackson is great value in redraft simply by being in the best offense of his career. All this is assuming he stays healthy of course.
You're deluding yourself if you think that Jackson won't get the lion's share and Rodgers will be anything more than a COP back. Even with a reduced workload (by his standards) I think Jackson is great value in redraft simply by being in the best offense of his career. All this is assuming he stays healthy of course.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
I could see Jackson still playing at age 34 if he wants to. I do recall him talking about retiring however so perhaps he does not want to play that long.
http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcsouth/post/_/id/46123/breaking-down-steven-jacksons-contractSo it is not likely he will play for the last year of this contract unless he is doing very well.
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Sabertooth
Footballguy
Looks like he's running in quicksand. No thanks.
bengalbuck
Footballguy
So that deal looks like it could be a 1 year, $5.25 Million.
Or a 2 year, $8.25 Million.
Doubt he sees the third year.
Or a 2 year, $8.25 Million.
Doubt he sees the third year.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Gonna be fascinating to see where S-Jax lands in my live drafts. I am pumped up about the marriage of Jackson and the Falcons from a fantasy standpoint, but I have an angel on one shoulder and the devil on the other shoulder, and they are screaming at each other.
On the one hand, he'll never see a defense which is primarily geared to stop the run, like he saw every week in St. Louis. In theory, it should be like stealing. On the other hand, between rushes and receptions, he has touched the ball over 2,800 times. It's scary just typing that. But if the change of scenery and the chance to win energizes him enough to overcome all of the miles on his odometer, you could have a fantasy steal on your hands. Barring injury, there is simply no way he doesn't get double-digit TDs. And again, he should see some monster holes with Julio, Roddy and Gonzo commanding all of the attention.
Just gonna be interesting to see how coveted he is by most owners.
On the one hand, he'll never see a defense which is primarily geared to stop the run, like he saw every week in St. Louis. In theory, it should be like stealing. On the other hand, between rushes and receptions, he has touched the ball over 2,800 times. It's scary just typing that. But if the change of scenery and the chance to win energizes him enough to overcome all of the miles on his odometer, you could have a fantasy steal on your hands. Barring injury, there is simply no way he doesn't get double-digit TDs. And again, he should see some monster holes with Julio, Roddy and Gonzo commanding all of the attention.
Just gonna be interesting to see how coveted he is by most owners.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
I agree with pretty much everything here RN. I also feel like SJax got out of RB purgatory and finally has his shot to shine, and a chance at a ring. He has been on average RB14 the last 3 years, and no worse than RB17. In those 3 years, he played on absolutely awful teams, now he is on an elite offense. TDs have always been the thing holding SJax back from stardom, shouldnt be a problem this year. Turner's ADP was far lower last year because everyone saw it coming, but put up top 10 numbers in previous years..
I cant say something like passion for the game, or getting a ring, etc is a reason why I would be buying a player, but SJax just seems like 1 of those guys who I can believe in, and is going to give it all this year just for that chance. He was stuck in an awful situation his whole career, he signed with a team like ATL for a reason.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
From FalconsBlitz:
- Turner ranked first and second in goal line carries in 2011 and 2012 respectively.
Goal line carries (3 yards or less) the past two years: Turner - 36, Jackson - 10.
The opportunities will be there.
- Turner ranked first and second in goal line carries in 2011 and 2012 respectively.
Goal line carries (3 yards or less) the past two years: Turner - 36, Jackson - 10.
The opportunities will be there.
Phenix
Footballguy
Phenix
Footballguy
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
LOL @ judging him after 3 carries in the first preseason game. Overreact more.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
MORE FOR ME!!!
rizzler
Footballguy
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
rizzler
Footballguy
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
In all fairness to Sjax, Atlanta's line stinks at run blocking; he barely had the ball before he was met by several defenders on several of those carries tonight. But he did look slow.
pantherclub
Footballguy
1100 carries since 2009 with an average of 5 tds a year
not counting his receptions
This just screams headache and bust all over it. Not seeing why he is going late first early second. Makes no sense whatsoever
need2know
Footballguy
I have had him rated pretty high all off season and am now really rethinking his ranking
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Can we at least wait until he craps the bed in a real game before ripping him?
LT in his prime used to have 4 carries for 2 yards in preseason games.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Also, I'm not telling anyone to overspend for him. But if he falls to you in a reasonable spot, I don't think there's any reason whatsoever to avoid him.
pantherclub
Footballguy
I look at carries
when you look at 04-07 LT got an enormous amount of carries along with his receptions. I dont give a rats ### who you are that is going to catch up with you no matter what. The trend is clearly showing with Jackson if you look at his stats but yet folks have him ranked in the top 10. Its asinine.
pantherclub
Footballguy
There is no reasonable spot to pick him at where he is going.Also, I'm not telling anyone to overspend for him. But if he falls to you in a reasonable spot, I don't think there's any reason whatsoever to avoid him.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Well, regarding your stat above about the 5 TDs/year, that was clearly a product of being on a terrible team year in and year out. Preseason games typically don't make me lose sleep about a player. Most of them just want to break a sweat and then get out.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Then you won't be owning him.There is no reasonable spot to pick him at where he is going.Also, I'm not telling anyone to overspend for him. But if he falls to you in a reasonable spot, I don't think there's any reason whatsoever to avoid him.
Nothing wrong with that.
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Jackson averaging 5 TDs a year the last few years is completely irrelevant. I am pretty sure he will get more scoring opportunities with the Falcons than he did with the Rams.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
He won't finish in the top 15 for rbs.
pantherclub
Footballguy
I hear what you are saying but Jackson is clearly trending on the way down, for folks to put him on the cusp of the top 10 is just crazy. He is old, beat up and has a ton of miles. What could you reasonably expect from him? Like I said in the other thread, I think guys like Ballard, Dwill, Matthews all perform equal or better than Jackson. You simply cannot disregard his workload since he changed teams. Players dont trend down and then all of a sudden sky rocket up after the carries.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I think he'll score enough to finish in the 11-15 range in many formats, but if he gets dinged up or some of those goal line opportunities are not converted and he ends up not playing a full schedule and/or only scoring 6-8 times, he could be a major bust.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
Because it's perfectly logical to operate under the assumption that that was almost completely caused by the fact he played on a terrible offense.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
Because the Rams gave him fewer scoring opportunities, especially at the goal line, than the Falcons are likely to give him. An over the hill and fat and slow Michael Turner still scored double digit TDs for them last year. You really don't see the difference?
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pantherclub
Footballguy
in a 12 team redraft where would he have to fall to you where you have to draft him.
For me I dont think there is a spot, I am pretty sure he will be a RB2 at best this year
Ghost Rider
Footballguy
I don't do drafts anymore, but in auctions, if I can get him for under or around $20, I will take my chances.
pantherclub
Footballguy
he has broken double digits once, once in his career, the next closest is 8, once. You can blame bad offense all you want but A)his best years are clearly behind him and B) he needs to get double digit td's to justify his ADP, it just aint happening. There is clearly a trend with this guy and some people refuse to see it
We Tigers
Footballguy
Well, it actually is very relevant, but not in the way you think. His numbers the last two seasons:
2011: 17 red zone rushes, 4 TDs; 23.5% success
2012: 27 red zone rushes, 4 TDs; 14.8% success
That comes out to an 18% success rate over the past two seasons. In Atlanta, Turner's numbers looked like this:
2011: 59 red zones rushes, 9 TDs; 15.3% success
2012: 50 red zone rushes, 9 TDs; 18% success
Success rate: 16.5%. So, Steven Jackson has been a higher percentage runner in the red zone than Michael Turner, but has only had about 1/3 of his opportunity. If the Falcons give their lead back 50-59 red zone rushes again, Jackson has a very good shot at producing at least 9-10 rushing TDs.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
IF Jackson fails, it will almost certainly be because his O-line sucks beyond belief, not because of the mileage on his legs.
pantherclub
Footballguy
And thats my point, people disregard the mileage and think he is now a top 10 rb because he is on the Falcons, it doesnt work like that.
Thats an insane amount of punishment to put on your body and the fact that everything was already trending down is pretty telling.
Raider Nation
Devil's Advocate
I'll be honest, the most concerning thing to me about Jackson is the schedule. Are you hoping to be in your championship game? Week 16: Atlanta @ San Francisco. Ughhh. That has 11/29/0 written all over it. The shark move - if you draft him - is to move him before the week 10 game against Seattle. He's got a very, very easy early-season schedule.
pantherclub
Footballguy
good strategy but my gut tells me he is exposed way before then. Granted I didnt see the game tonight but I saw enough last year to see that he has lost that first step "pop" that he had early in his career that would could turn the corner and bust a big play. Now he makes his move and lowers his head for contact. Thats not how I remember him early on at all.
ConnSKINS26
Footballguy
All of this, and you didn't even see him play tonight? You can't make this stuff up.
Vector
Footballguy
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