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Steven Jackson to ATL (1 Viewer)
- Thread starter Nucker101
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Biabreakable
Footballguy
SJax is one of my fav players. He put that StL team on his shoulders every week and now he finally gets his shot at playing on a Super Bowl caliber team. He is going to give 110% out there and have an awesome season imo. He'll play his heart out a la Corey Dillon on NE, trying for that Super Bowl ring. With that O around him, I think Atl will be pretty scary this year. If they were playing in the AFC, they'd be right up there with Denver as the fav to go to the championship.
No way the wheels fall off for SJax this year -- next year, maybe.
No way the wheels fall off for SJax this year -- next year, maybe.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
It isn't up to him.
I wouldn't worry about those numbers. His touches have tailed off the last two years. The two years that I bolded, he had about the same number of touches and the yards came out about the same. If he gets 260/40 again, he'll put up at least 1400 in this offense with the added bonus of touchdowns.Slapdash said:
ghostguy123
Footballguy
I don't think there is anyway around it.............if he is healthy all year he is going to put up low end RB-1 numbers. Even at 4 YPC. Even if he puts up a Michael Turner like showing, he will score more on the receptions that Turner never got.
If Jackson is your #2 RB, you are looking pretty good. If he is your #1, not as much.
If Jackson is your #2 RB, you are looking pretty good. If he is your #1, not as much.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
No I'm projecting Jackson to get about the same work he got last year. Last year he had 257 rushes and 38 reception for 295 touches. I gave him 280 touches.
But, what you aren't factoring in that he's going to a new team that was near the bottom of the league in rushing last year and was significantly worse than the team he's coming from. The Falcons had 40 less rush attempts and where a 1/2 a yard per attempt worse than STL. Even though no RB on Atlanta accomplished it last year, I still gave SJAX a 4.0 ypr average. I also gave him an uptick in TDs because Atlanta does score more than STL. I think I was pretty generous in my assesment.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
Well I am factoring that in as I do with every player.
You do realize that Jackson was spelled at times last season by Richardson correct? He may have had even less carries than he did if the Rams would have done what BriShotty wanted to do which is have 2RB with similar amount of carries, but that he could not do that later in the season because the Rams were competing for a playoff spot and then started to lean on Jackson more. Because he gave them the best chance to win.
Then you cross reference this with the Falcons 2012 season which was the worst year they have had running the ball and Turner had fallen off greatly in his productivity. I think almost any sensible person would not consider this a good basis for expectations of Jackson in the same offense.
From the spotlight thread earlier this season:
So I went and looked at the last 3 seasons of both the Falcons and Rams offenses, specifically their running games. The last 3 seasons for Atlanta has been with Matt Ryan breaking out in 2010 and increasing his passing attempts by about 100 a season since then. Michael Turner as the main RB over these past 3 seasons has been in steady decline.
2012 Falcons 615pa 378ra Turner 222ra 112ra 94 to Rodgers/18Snelling 3.7ypc season 26th in RA 29th in yards 29th in ypc
2011 Falcons 594pa 453 Turner 301ra 101ra split between Rodgers/Snelling 4 ypc season 11th in RA 17th in yards 21tst in ypc
2010 Falcons 577pa 497ra Turner 334ra Snelling 87ra FB36ra 36Johnson 3.8ypc season 5th in RA 12th in yards 26th in ypc
In Turners 1st season the Falcons were close to 500 rushing attempts but the yards per carry were pretty bad. Shows commitment to the running game and having a lead to close out games. The Falcons phased out one of their COP RB roles. 2011 seems like where the Falcons would like to be as far as distribution and players being healthy all season. 2012 Turner clearly declined and that is the main reason for the 80-100 less carries that I think this offense wants to run. Steven Jackson is a career 4.2 ypc RB so I see that meeting somewhere between the Falcons recent team ypc. So 4ypc expected.
2012 Rams 557pa 410ra 257ra Jackson 98ra Richardson 22nd in rushing
2011 Rams 549pa 409ra Jackson 260ra Carnell Williams 87ra 23rd in rushing
2010 Rams 590a 429ra Jackson 330ra 3.8ypc Darby 34ra Bradford rookie year 25th in rushing
I can see why some may percieve Jackson as slipping with the low ypc on 330 carries in 2010 as a sign that he may have lost some of his ability. However with a rookie QB this is why they were conservative and defenses were more effective against Jackson imo.
The Falcons were willing to give Turner a heavy workload. I think Jackson is a better player today than Turner was even in 2010. Jackson's career speaks for itself. http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/J/JackSt00.htm
Jackson 275-320 carries 4.1-4.4 ypc 1128-1408yds 8-14TD 39-63 receptions for 312-504 yards 1-3TD or 1440-1912 total yards 9-17TD is my projection for him.
rizzler
Footballguy
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Richardson got 6.1 carries per game last year. Rodger got 5.9 carries per game. So Richardson didn't steal an inordinate amount of carries from Jackson. Most backups get around 4-6 carries per game.
Also, since the Falcons traded for Tony Gonzalez, the passing attempts have gone up, the rushing attempts have gone down.
Stephen Jackson has had a nice career, but I don't really care what he did 3 to 5 years ago. I find it interesting that Turner fell off the map when he turned 30.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
doesn't this speak more to the crappiness that was Micheal Turner last year and/or how much better SJax is than what they've had recently? SJax hasn't faced less than 17 in the box since Holt retired. Matty Ice throwing to Julio/Roddy/Gonzo by default makes his offensive line better at run protection.
SJax is a bruiser that they can use to close out games (something they didn't do well last year at all) as well as a legit pass catcher who can stay on the field for all three downs (something they've not had since Warrick Dunn). Turner averaged 12 TD's as the starter in Atlanta not because he is a great RB but because of how prolific this offense is. That hasn't changed. SJax may lead the league in TDs this year. Seriously.
288 @ 4.1 for 1180 rush/12 TDs 55 rec's @ 8.0 for 440 rec/4 TDs. 313 FFP's or Top 3 RB last year.
Stud.
Breesisdaman
Footballguy
I like SJax a lot he has always been a yards monster that lacked the toches inside the 20' to get the TD points. With Gonzo , Roddy and Julio does he see as many opportunities in the red zone or less? That the one question I have about him
Papa Georgio
Footballguy
I think I read on here or saw on TV a stat that compared Jackson's touches last year inside the 10 to Turner's and Turner had over triple. I might be dreaming though.
Phenix
Footballguy
I went to the ATL/BAL game tonight (home now at th 2 min warning) and sat in the right spot to see all 22 players. Sjax ran well when the opportunity was there.
The Ravens were routinely going to a nickel against 2TE and a dime against ATL's 3-wide and that's where Ryan audibled to run after run and the ATL line and SJax gobbled up the yards against the short-handed Ravens defense. It would have been nice to see more successful runs with FB-in-formation vs 7 ITB...but you cant really complain about Sjax doing what he's supposed to do vs defenses guarding against the pass.
8 for 42 and 1 for 13. Didn't watch the game but suspect that was 6.5 ff pts in 1.5 quarters or less. That's about 15 ff pts a week when he doesn't socre a TD and 20+ in the 10+ games he does socre a TD.
Kenny Powers
Footballguy
Reports of SJax demise have been greatly overestimated, based on last week basically.
After AD, I think the the RB I trust the most to produce is SJax. The guy just has the heart and motor many dont, & I dont see him falling off the shelf this year.
After AD, I think the the RB I trust the most to produce is SJax. The guy just has the heart and motor many dont, & I dont see him falling off the shelf this year.
bulger2holt
Footballguy
Mostly because the Rams have sucked basically SJ entire career. No fault of his. He's a warrior. Imagine if he played on a good team his entire career?
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Snotbubbles
Footballguy
I might agree except here are the averages of the Rams RBs last year:
SJax ypc 4.1
Richardson ypc 4.8
Pead ypc 5.4
Compared to the Falcons RBs:
Turner ypc 3.6
Rodgers ypc 3.9
Snelling ypc 3.5
As you can see, all the Rams RBs had over 4 ypc. All the Falcons RBs had under 4 ypc. Those numbers point to a blocking/scheme issue.
340+ touches for SJAX? He hasn't done that since 2010. Oh and as I said before, Michael Turner was actually pretty good for Atlanta. I wonder what age he began to suck?
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
Look for the Eagles/Panther replay on NFL Network. If Lesean McCoy isn't a top 3 back this year...
pantherclub
Footballguy
define cheap
unckeyherb
Footballguy
You may be right. I think those YPC numbers are an indication of the mediocrity at RB, but I'd be stupid to think that line issues aren't partially to blame. I guess my point is that SJax has been at best a top 3 RB in the league and at worst a viable FF RB, year in and year out on perennially horrible offenses. Turner, while a very good RB for a couple of years, was never as good a ball carrier as SJax and certainly never an elite pass catcher like SJax.
The situation that all of us SJax fans have been praying for, for years, is finally upon us. He has multiple receiving threats and a QB to get them the ball, which should mean that for the first time in a long time, he'll be facing less than 14 in the box. His TD totals should at least triple from previous years alone.
I might be way off, but I see an elite RB, finally getting a shot with an elite offense. Stars are aligned and all that stuff.
We'll see.
Biabreakable
Footballguy
The offensive line is certainly something I can see holding Jackson back from the top tier of RB. In the spotlight I linked some articles of interest about that. The offensive line went younger, because they want the new players to build chemistry with each other over the next 3 seasons. There is an adjustment period expected for that to develop. They may not have good enough players right now and it is possible the Falcons are one of the bottom 10 offensive lines in the league. That is a legit concern.
Age 30 is a concern as well. There are reasons why Jackson is not considered in the top tier of RB.
I do see that upside being there however, particularly if he ends up having over 60 receptions, which seems very possible.
Age 30 is a concern as well. There are reasons why Jackson is not considered in the top tier of RB.
I do see that upside being there however, particularly if he ends up having over 60 receptions, which seems very possible.
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
I don't think he's gonna suck by any means. I just don't think he's gonna get the amount of touches that SJax enthusiast believe to put him in the 1700 total yard range. He hasn't gotten those kind of touches for a couple years now.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
he's had 295, 302, 375, 375 over the last 4 years. No reason to think he can't see an uptick in his touches on this team.
per KFFL...
per KFFL...
bigmarc27
Footballguy
The falcons are going to run him into the ground. This is all or nothing for them this year and Steven Jackson is a two year rental at most so there's not reason not to use him until the wheels fall off.
The offensive line is a legit concern, but I would be shocked if Jackson isn't near the top of the league in touches - in fact if he plays all 16, I bet he gets close to 400 touches.
The offensive line is a legit concern, but I would be shocked if Jackson isn't near the top of the league in touches - in fact if he plays all 16, I bet he gets close to 400 touches.
Sabertooth
Footballguy
I guess I don't understand how they are going to have Julio and Roddy be top receivers, Ryan be a top QB, and Gonzo be a top TE again. There are only so many touches to go around.
bigmarc27
Footballguy
I suspect White/Jones/Gonzalez will lose a small % of touches to Jackson. They brought him in to be a 3 down guy and catch the ball. Michael Turner had 70 receptions in his entire career - I suspect Jackson will match that total. So yeah, I can see the others taking a dip in receptions as well as quizz. I can also see Ryan's comp % improving a tad with better a better dump-off option.
All that to say, I have no idea how well Jackson will perform or what he'll do with those touches. I just think he's going to get a lot of them.
pantherclub
Footballguy
You think Ajax is catching 70 balls this year?
Jesus guys pump the brakes
Jesus guys pump the brakes
unckeyherb
Footballguy
They can have a great passing game and also have a great running game. SJax should be heavily involved in both, which is why I think he is set for a big year. There were a lot of times last year that ATL got up early and struggled to run in the fourth quarter to ice the game. They be force feeding SJax in the second half a lot. Like someone said above, I think they will run him into the ground.
bigmarc27
Footballguy
pantherclub
Footballguy
Snotbubbles
Footballguy
bigmarc27
Footballguy
It's not the same, it's better. This is a rental and there's nothing to save him for long-term.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
While he is certainly capable of doing just that, I think 70 is a little high. A slight bump in his career average from 45 up to 50-55 is pretty realistic, I think.
Take his average YPR of 8.2 and you've got 410 to 450 yards. You're talking an extra 100 points in PPR leagues.
unckeyherb
Footballguy
Concept Coop
Footballguy
We Tigers
Footballguy
~1400 total yards, and, based on his red zone success rate and the Falcons' level of red zone carries, around 10-11 TDs (Jackson scored at about an 18% rate in St. Louis, and the Ryan/Roddy/Julio/Gonzo Falcons gave Turner 50 and 59 red zone carries in their two years together). There's upside for more on top of that if things really get humming, but that's my realistic projection.
pantherclub
Footballguy
Plus you could make the argument that the falcons won't run him to death and save him for the playoff.
pantherclub
Footballguy
how many 30 yr old rb's with his mileage have ever done that. Hint not many
bigmarc27
Footballguy
They might not, but I'm accounting for it with a down tick across the board everywhere else. MJD had 384 touches with Dirk Koetter two yea ago. Koetter now has a 3 down RB in ATL, I just think he's going to be heavily involved.
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