Steven Jackson to ATL (1 Viewer)

[bigmarc27]

Plus you could make the argument that the falcons won't run him to death and save him for the playoff.

I don't think they'll be able to run and hide from the division. To do that, they'd have to lock up home field.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Reports of SJax demise have been greatly overestimated, based on last week basically.

After AD, I think the the RB I trust the most to produce is SJax. The guy just has the heart and motor many dont, & I dont see him falling off the shelf this year.

Look for the Eagles/Panther replay on NFL Network. If Lesean McCoy isn't a top 3 back this year...

By trust in this sense, I just meant in regards to his drive for the game. I love Shady this year and will certainly draft him before SJax if I can

 

[We Tigers]

~1400 total yards, and, based on his red zone success rate and the Falcons' level of red zone carries, around 10-11 TDs (Jackson scored at about an 18% rate in St. Louis, and the Ryan/Roddy/Julio/Gonzo Falcons gave Turner 50 and 59 red zone carries in their two years together). There's upside for more on top of that if things really get humming, but that's my realistic projection.

how many 30 yr old rb's with his mileage have ever done that. Hint not many

How many 30 year old RBs play on an offense that lets its QB constantly audible to inside runs against nickel and dime defenses, and produce 50+ red zone carries a year for the lead back?Also: off the top of my head Thomas Jones, Ricky Watters, Curtis Martin, Tiki Barber, and Emmett Smith all produced really well at age 30 and beyond, all after long careers. No, there aren't a ton of guys who do it, but "this guy's 30 and thus he's gonna suck" is a pretty simple viewpoint that doesn't quite approach the level of "analysis."

And yes, I know there are some hall of famers on that list, but if Steven Jackson had spent his 20s on even a decent team, he'd be a hall of famer, too.

 

[unckeyherb]

~1400 total yards, and, based on his red zone success rate and the Falcons' level of red zone carries, around 10-11 TDs (Jackson scored at about an 18% rate in St. Louis, and the Ryan/Roddy/Julio/Gonzo Falcons gave Turner 50 and 59 red zone carries in their two years together). There's upside for more on top of that if things really get humming, but that's my realistic projection.

how many 30 yr old rb's with his mileage have ever done that. Hint not many

Tiki Barber, Priest Holmes, Curtis Martin, Corey Dillon, Warrick Dunn, Thomas Jones, Fred Taylor, Ricky Williams, LT2, Willis McGahee, Mike Anderson, Marshall Faulk all had very productive seasons at 30+.

 

[pantherclub]

Only tiki and priest had any kind of numbers close to what you guys are predicting for Jackson. Plus those guys had way less mileage. Look at the numbers for Lt and faulk after ages 29 and 30.

 

[pantherclub]

Oops miss martin. He seems to be the aberration

 

[We Tigers]

Only tiki and priest had any kind of numbers close to what you guys are predicting for Jackson. Plus those guys had way less mileage. Look at the numbers for Lt and faulk after ages 29 and 30.

Huh? Dillon, Smith, Watters, and TJ all easily topped 1400 total yards, the latter two multiple times. Okay, Watters only had 7 TDs when he was 31. I could go back and show you numbers for even more of these guys, but this should be enough to show you that a big career workload + age is not a death sentence for a running back, especially one in a high-scoring offense that sees the red zone a lot.

 

[pantherclub]

Only tiki and priest had any kind of numbers close to what you guys are predicting for Jackson. Plus those guys had way less mileage. Look at the numbers for Lt and faulk after ages 29 and 30.

Huh? Dillon, Smith, Watters, and TJ all easily topped 1400 total yards, the latter two multiple times. Okay, Watters only had 7 TDs when he was 31. I could go back and show you numbers for even more of these guys, but this should be enough to show you that a big career workload + age is not a death sentence for a running back, especially one in a high-scoring offense that sees the red zone a lot.

On the flip side I could easily go back and give numerous examples of guys that hit 30 that just nose dived. I am sure my list would have more examples.

 

[unckeyherb]

Only tiki and priest had any kind of numbers close to what you guys are predicting for Jackson. Plus those guys had way less mileage. Look at the numbers for Lt and faulk after ages 29 and 30.

Tiki Barber, Priest Holmes, Curtis Martin, Corey Dillon, Warrick Dunn, Thomas Jones, Fred Taylor, Ricky Williams. These guys all had above 1300 YFS all the way up 2390 YFS (Tiki in back to back years had 2127 and 2390). Also, SJax is bigger than everyone on that list and takes very good care of his body year round.

Look, the guy has eclipsed 1250 YFS for the last 8 seasons in a row and has averaged somewhere around 20 touches a game. 30 is just a number. If you think he'll fall off like Alexander or Edge, fine. I can't really argue with you cause I don't know how quantities of carries affect him versus anyone else. I just think that you can't argue that his situation is better than it has ever been in St Louis. Turner had double the runs inside the 10 yard line that SJax did last year. Pass interference calls in the end zone alone will probably give him more scoring opportunities than he got last year.

 

[unckeyherb]

Only tiki and priest had any kind of numbers close to what you guys are predicting for Jackson. Plus those guys had way less mileage. Look at the numbers for Lt and faulk after ages 29 and 30.

Huh? Dillon, Smith, Watters, and TJ all easily topped 1400 total yards, the latter two multiple times. Okay, Watters only had 7 TDs when he was 31. I could go back and show you numbers for even more of these guys, but this should be enough to show you that a big career workload + age is not a death sentence for a running back, especially one in a high-scoring offense that sees the red zone a lot.

On the flip side I could easily go back and give numerous examples of guys that hit 30 that just nose dived. I am sure my list would have more examples.

how many examples are 6'-2" / 240 and health nuts?

 

[We Tigers]

Only tiki and priest had any kind of numbers close to what you guys are predicting for Jackson. Plus those guys had way less mileage. Look at the numbers for Lt and faulk after ages 29 and 30.

Huh? Dillon, Smith, Watters, and TJ all easily topped 1400 total yards, the latter two multiple times. Okay, Watters only had 7 TDs when he was 31. I could go back and show you numbers for even more of these guys, but this should be enough to show you that a big career workload + age is not a death sentence for a running back, especially one in a high-scoring offense that sees the red zone a lot.

On the flip side I could easily go back and give numerous examples of guys that hit 30 that just nose dived. I am sure my list would have more examples.

Sure. The difference in our perspectives appears to be that I'm willing to consider a player and his situation individually and in context (red zone opps, Turner's decent production even when broken down, etc.) rather than ascribe his success or failure solely to a "trend" that, while pervasive, is far from all-encompassing. You don't seem to be.And that's fine! Draft someone else! You're certainly entitled to do just that.

 

[Bayhawks]

Only tiki and priest had any kind of numbers close to what you guys are predicting for Jackson. Plus those guys had way less mileage. Look at the numbers for Lt and faulk after ages 29 and 30.

Huh? Dillon, Smith, Watters, and TJ all easily topped 1400 total yards, the latter two multiple times. Okay, Watters only had 7 TDs when he was 31. I could go back and show you numbers for even more of these guys, but this should be enough to show you that a big career workload + age is not a death sentence for a running back, especially one in a high-scoring offense that sees the red zone a lot.

On the flip side I could easily go back and give numerous examples of guys that hit 30 that just nose dived. I am sure my list would have more examples.

Whenever you are ready, I'd like to see that list.

 

[ghostguy123]

Only tiki and priest had any kind of numbers close to what you guys are predicting for Jackson. Plus those guys had way less mileage. Look at the numbers for Lt and faulk after ages 29 and 30.

Huh? Dillon, Smith, Watters, and TJ all easily topped 1400 total yards, the latter two multiple times. Okay, Watters only had 7 TDs when he was 31. I could go back and show you numbers for even more of these guys, but this should be enough to show you that a big career workload + age is not a death sentence for a running back, especially one in a high-scoring offense that sees the red zone a lot.

On the flip side I could easily go back and give numerous examples of guys that hit 30 that just nose dived. I am sure my list would have more examples.

Whenever you are ready, I'd like to see that list.

Me too. And how many in that list will be the physical specimen that Sjax was, and is.

 

[Grahamburn]

~1400 total yards, and, based on his red zone success rate and the Falcons' level of red zone carries, around 10-11 TDs (Jackson scored at about an 18% rate in St. Louis, and the Ryan/Roddy/Julio/Gonzo Falcons gave Turner 50 and 59 red zone carries in their two years together). There's upside for more on top of that if things really get humming, but that's my realistic projection.

how many 30 yr old rb's with his mileage have ever done that. Hint not many

There have been 16 RBs manage 200+ fantasy points in their age 30 season. There are some pretty great RBs who have accomplished the feat. Perrenial pro bowlers. Hall of Famers. Jackson is in the conversation with some of these guys.

Each of them played at least 14 games, which Jackson has done in all but 2 of his seasons. 13 of the 16 managed double digit TDs. I think we can all agree Jackson has a very good shot at 10+ TDs. Only one of the 16 had 15 receptions or fewer, which was Corey Dillon in 2004, and each back remaining had at least 27 receptions. Jackson is highly likely to have 40+ receptions in this offense. His lowest total disregarding his rookie year is 38.

He definitely fits the criteria for becoming the 17th RB to reach 200+ fantasy points in his age 30 season.

 

[pantherclub]

Only tiki and priest had any kind of numbers close to what you guys are predicting for Jackson. Plus those guys had way less mileage. Look at the numbers for Lt and faulk after ages 29 and 30.

Huh? Dillon, Smith, Watters, and TJ all easily topped 1400 total yards, the latter two multiple times. Okay, Watters only had 7 TDs when he was 31. I could go back and show you numbers for even more of these guys, but this should be enough to show you that a big career workload + age is not a death sentence for a running back, especially one in a high-scoring offense that sees the red zone a lot.[/

On the flip side I could easily go back and give numerous examples of guys that hit 30 that just nose dived. I am sure my list would have more examples.

Whenever you are ready, I'd like to see that list.

Lt

Jamal Lewis

S Alexander

M Faulk

Edge

Eddie George

Deshaun foster

Michael turner

Jamal Anderson

That's without looking anything up and going by memory. I am sure the list goes on and on

Of the guys over 30 only like 2 had seasons where you guys are projecting Jackson and even they took a hard nosedive the next year

My point is it is simply to risky to draft him in the first and expect him to be your rb1 the whole year. The wheels most certianly are going to fall of its just a matter of when. To gamble it is not going to be this year is just too much risk for me.

 

[pantherclub]

Terrell Davis

Jerome Bettis

The list goes on and on

 

[Sabertooth]

Yup

 

[unckeyherb]

Lt

Jamal Lewis

S Alexander

M Faulk

Edge

Eddie George

Deshaun foster

Michael turner

Jamal Anderson

How many of these guys went to a markedly better offense the year they turned 30? We can do this all day, you see a RB destined to fall apart because he is 30; I see a RB who is finally in a situation that will highlight his massive ability. To each his own. He'll be on my team and won't be on yours. Lets revisit this thread in October and see where we're at. Good discussion all around, BTW.

 

[Bayhawks]

Only tiki and priest had any kind of numbers close to what you guys are predicting for Jackson. Plus those guys had way less mileage. Look at the numbers for Lt and faulk after ages 29 and 30.

Huh? Dillon, Smith, Watters, and TJ all easily topped 1400 total yards, the latter two multiple times. Okay, Watters only had 7 TDs when he was 31. I could go back and show you numbers for even more of these guys, but this should be enough to show you that a big career workload + age is not a death sentence for a running back, especially one in a high-scoring offense that sees the red zone a lot.[/

On the flip side I could easily go back and give numerous examples of guys that hit 30 that just nose dived. I am sure my list would have more examples.

Whenever you are ready, I'd like to see that list.

Lt

Jamal Lewis

S Alexander

M Faulk

Edge

Eddie George

Deshaun foster

Michael turner

Jamal Anderson

That's without looking anything up and going by memory. I am sure the list goes on and on

Of the guys over 30 only like 2 had seasons where you guys are projecting Jackson and even they took a hard nosedive the next year

My point is it is simply to risky to draft him in the first and expect him to be your rb1 the whole year. The wheels most certianly are going to fall of its just a matter of when. To gamble it is not going to be this year is just too much risk for me.

So you are predicting an injury? Because only two those RBs you named played more thn 14 games (and listing Foster? Where did he take a nose dive from?)

Dillon seems to be the best, recent comparison. He had a lot of mileage when he came to NE, was 30, was leaving a poor offensive situation for a better one, and he responded.

Could SJax get hurt? Sure, any RB could, but I can't predict that, and neither can you.

 

[pantherclub]

What happened after Dillons magical season in which he turned 30?

Straight down

 

[pantherclub]

Cedric Benson

Clinton port is

Stephen davis

Deuce mccallister

Ahmad green

The list is endless and these are guys in the past 5 years

 

[pantherclub]

Larry Johnson

Brian Westbrook

Mike alstot

Jamal lewis

 

[Bayhawks]

What happened after Dillons magical season in which he turned 30?

Straight down

Every players goes down at some point. You seem to think Jackson will do so this season, based on his age. You cite anecdotal evidence to support your belief, and ignore anecdotal evidence that refutes tour belief. Good luck with that.

 

[pantherclub]

The majority of running backs go down at age 30 or below. Risking a first round pick on someone like Jackson is much too big of a risk for me. You guys have shown like 2-3 backs over 30 that have had seasons that would justify a first round pick. Good luck with that.

 

[Bayhawks]

The majority of running backs go down at age 30 or below. Risking a first round pick on someone like Jackson is much too big of a risk for me. You guys have shown like 2-3 backs over 30 that have had seasons that would justify a first round pick. Good luck with that.

Wow, you are really going out on a limb right here. Since the average NFL career is like 5 years, and most NFL players begin their career before they hit 25, you're making a bold statement by suggesting that the majority of NFL running backs go down at the end of their career.

The fact is that the majority of RBs who are playing in the NFL when they hit age 30 aren't moving to a far superior offense. The fact is that Jackson hasn't shown any real signs of slowing down, but he played on a pretty pedestrian team the last several years. The fact is that Jackson has now moved to a far superior offensive team. The fact is that Jackson has had 300+ receiving yards for each of the last 5 years. All he has to do to hit 1400 yards is get 260 carries @ 4.2 YPC (his career average), get his normal receiving stats, and he'll hit 1400 total yards. You don't think it will happen, don't draft him. Good luck.

 

[unckeyherb]

And it wasn't long ago that the given recovery time for an ACL tear was 2 years. Rules change. 30 is not the wall it once was ( at least I don't believe it is in this case).

 

[pantherclub]

He is going to hit the wall it happens to all of the and 29-30 seems to be the number as history shows. If you are willing to risk a first then go ahead. Its too risky for me.

 

[Koya]

Anything relating to S JAX here, as opposed to every other 30+ year old back in NFL history?

 

[unckeyherb]

He is going to hit the wall it happens to all of the and 29-30 seems to be the number as history shows. If you are willing to risk a first then go ahead. Its too risky for me.

I think this has been beaten to death. We get it. You think all RBs will immediately break down at 30. Thus, Sjax will break down this season. Agree to disagree.

Out of curiosity, what are you projecting for him?

 

[pantherclub]

He is going to hit the wall it happens to all of the and 29-30 seems to be the number as history shows. If you are willing to risk a first then go ahead. Its too risky for me.

I think this has been beaten to death. We get it. You think all RBs will immediately break down at 30. Thus, Sjax will break down this season. Agree to disagree.

Out of curiosity, what are you projecting for him?

I don't necessarily think he breaks down this year but based on his carries and history it is too much for me to risk picking Him as my rb1.

I don't make projections for him because there is no way I would draft him. I normally pick a wr late in the first and even if he fell to me in the second I don't trust himas my rb1. Nonetheless someone like guys in this thread are going to have a hardon for him thinking he is going to have some crazy career year and pick him way too high. Kenny powers said he trusts him right after adp to get his points more than anyone else. People like him are going to draft him 5-8. Which imo is nuts. I think there are too many mouths to feed in that offense for anyone to have a crazy type year.

I would think his ceiling is the 30 catch range. 1300 ish yards and 8-10 tds. That would be the absolute max IMO. The flip side obviously would be a total breakdown a la S Alexander or some of the others I mentioned above. Do a little research on some of those guys and just see how quickly they fall in the 29,30 age range. And these are hof world class runners like LT and Faulk.

 

[unckeyherb]

You think his ceiling is less total yards than hes ever had, career low in receptions and less TDs than Turner ever put up in this offense? Mkay, we are worlds apart man. To each his own. Good luck!

 

[pantherclub]

I don't need luck as I am not drafting him.

 

[unckeyherb]

Okay

 

[need2know]

He is going to hit the wall it happens to all of the and 29-30 seems to be the number as history shows. If you are willing to risk a first then go ahead. Its too risky for me.

I think this has been beaten to death. We get it. You think all RBs will immediately break down at 30. Thus, Sjax will break down this season. Agree to disagree.

Out of curiosity, what are you projecting for him?

I don't necessarily think he breaks down this year but based on his carries and history it is too much for me to risk picking Him as my rb1.

I don't make projections for him because there is no way I would draft him. I normally pick a wr late in the first and even if he fell to me in the second I don't trust himas my rb1. Nonetheless someone like guys in this thread are going to have a hardon for him thinking he is going to have some crazy career year and pick him way too high. Kenny powers said he trusts him right after adp to get his points more than anyone else. People like him are going to draft him 5-8. Which imo is nuts. I think there are too many mouths to feed in that offense for anyone to have a crazy type year.

I would think his ceiling is the 30 catch range. 1300 ish yards and 8-10 tds. That would be the absolute max IMO. The flip side obviously would be a total breakdown a la S Alexander or some of the others I mentioned above. Do a little research on some of those guys and just see how quickly they fall in the 29,30 age range. And these are hof world class runners like LT and Faulk.

What about as a rb2? That's what I am trying for. Early second round redraft pick

 

[Kenny Powers]

He is going to hit the wall it happens to all of the and 29-30 seems to be the number as history shows. If you are willing to risk a first then go ahead. Its too risky for me.

I think this has been beaten to death. We get it. You think all RBs will immediately break down at 30. Thus, Sjax will break down this season. Agree to disagree.

Out of curiosity, what are you projecting for him?

I don't necessarily think he breaks down this year but based on his carries and history it is too much for me to risk picking Him as my rb1.

I don't make projections for him because there is no way I would draft him. I normally pick a wr late in the first and even if he fell to me in the second I don't trust himas my rb1. Nonetheless someone like guys in this thread are going to have a hardon for him thinking he is going to have some crazy career year and pick him way too high. Kenny powers said he trusts him right after adp to get his points more than anyone else. People like him are going to draft him 5-8. Which imo is nuts. I think there are too many mouths to feed in that offense for anyone to have a crazy type year.

Um, no. I said I trust him more than anyone besides Peterson to give everything he can because of his drive and determination. Had nothing to do with how many points I expect him to get.

And in general, it just seems like you are throwing things out there to make your stance sound right. People are going to draft him 5-8? Um, no. His ADP is late 2nd round, so youre either pairing him with an elite RB1 as your RB2, or he ends up your RB1 because you took a Megatron or something with your 1st pick.

You think its a risk having him as your RB1? Well good luck with the options you will have in the 3rd round as your RB1.

 

[pantherclub]

Who said this?

After AD, I think the the RB I trust the most to produce is SJax. The guy just has the heart and motor many dont, & I dont see him falling off the shelf this year.

 

[Kenny Powers]

Who said this?

After AD, I think the the RB I trust the most to produce is SJax. The guy just has the heart and motor many dont, & I dont see him falling off the shelf this year.

Where do I say that I project his stats to make him the 2nd best RB or that I would take him in the 1st round? However, I specifically say I trust him because of his heart and drive, and clarified in another post after someone mentioned McCoy that was what I meant. Either youre fishing or like I said, trying to make your stance sound right when no one is making that argument in the 1st place (SJax going in the 1st round, SJax typically being a RB1).

 

[pantherclub]

He is currently being drafted 2.01 and rising. If you are not drafting him as your #1 then what exactly are you drafting him for?

And lol at your heart and drive explanation.

 

[Kenny Powers]

He is currently being drafted 2.01 and rising. If you are not drafting him as your #1 then what exactly are you drafting him for?

And lol at your heart and drive explanation.

According to MFL, in drafts since Aug 15th his ADP is 21st. Its ~21st for both PPR and non-PPR as well.

And I said heart and drive in that original post, so not sure how much more clear I can be especially after clarifying that statement twice now. Thinking I meant SJax has more of heart than any other RB besides Peterson is pretty reasonable I think. Not sure why you would ascertain from that statement I meant I trust him more than any other RB to finish as the #2 RB, which is far less reasonable.

 

[zed2283]

Well, it took 5 whole quarters...

 

[zed2283]

Well, it took 5 whole quarters...

ATL RB Steven Jackson scored an early TD, but he went back to the locker room shortly afterward with that the team is calling a thigh bruise. He's questionable to return to the game.

 

[shadyridr]

Thigh bruise? Really?

 

[pantherclub]

He is currently being drafted 2.01 and rising. If you are not drafting him as your #1 then what exactly are you drafting him for?

And lol at your heart and drive explanation.

According to MFL, in drafts since Aug 15th his ADP is 21st. Its ~21st for both PPR and non-PPR as well.

And I said heart and drive in that original post, so not sure how much more clear I can be especially after clarifying that statement twice now. Thinking I meant SJax has more of heart than any other RB besides Peterson is pretty reasonable I think. Not sure why you would ascertain from that statement I meant I trust him more than any other RB to finish as the #2 RB, which is far less reasonable.

More heart you say? How does that help with his thigh?You were simply asking for troubled drafting this guy in the first or second. History is proven correct once again.

 

[dickey moe]

Figures, since I dropped Jacquizz last week.

 

[shadyridr]

Figures, since I dropped Jacquizz last week.

so pick up snelling

 

[duaneok66]

I doubt if Jackson misses time - just a hunch.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Figures, since I dropped Jacquizz last week.

It's okay, Quizz would barely hold value even in PPR. IMO, he's extremely underwhelming. I'd rather have Snelling.

EDIT: But optimally, I'm leaning on neither.

 

[cstu]

Thigh bruise? Really?

It doesn't sound bad ('Oooh, a bruise'), but it's actually a muscle tear. Depending on how severe it could prevent someone from running.

 

[SameSongNDance]

Thigh bruise? Really?

It doesn't sound bad ('Oooh, a bruise'), but it's actually a muscle tear. Depending on how severe it could prevent someone from running.

I wonder if it's the same thigh/quad problem he had in 2011.

 

[shadyridr]

Thigh bruise? Really?

It doesn't sound bad ('Oooh, a bruise'), but it's actually a muscle tear. Depending on how severe it could prevent someone from running.

on what planet does a bruise equal a muscle tear?