What do I think the downside is? 30% or so. Some much more. The good will be dragged down with the bad. My guess is another rapid drop triggered by margin calls and then a recovery second half of the year.
Can easily happen. And the odds are it will at some point. Timing these things though is very tricky. Someone asked me if I ever go more than 25-30% cash.
Yes in May 2008 I went to 50% cash. I went all in with it in Late February 2009. Was a little early....but still killed it.
Right now....GME and AMC and all that high frequency coordinated “stick it to the man” stuff going on (and I have no problems with it at all but know someone is going to be left holding the bag on all this horse **** and don’t let that be you) is all fine and well and people are making money. Great.
The amount of noise and frothiness in this market. The amount of cavalier recklessness and “I am an expert” screams of a correction. "Irrational Exuberance”. If you fail to see that you are part of it. Simply giving sound advice here.
I am not a day trader, I am not a guy who is giving you hot stock picks daily and getting in and out by the minute. I invest for the long term.
This is a classic top. And it is about to blow at some point. The margins will be hammered and the indiscriminate selling will happen and all the great high quality will unravel as well along with all the crap that has run up. And that is when I will come back here....give you a list like I did back in March.
Right now.....taxable account (My IRA’s and 401k always stay invested as I do not time with those accounts....I do not ned that money for another 15 years) is sitting at 30%. I am comfortable with that percentage. I do not feel like we are going into a long bear market. I feel like we will have a sharp correction at some point this year (15-20%) and it will present another great buying opportunity into the master list.
It has been fun to watch this though. I hate hedge funds and I hate short sellers. They are like the guys who stand at the craps table and bet the no pass line.
Bad Karma.
I like seeing them suffer here.
Just be careful for those partaking into this extraordinary event we are seeing.
For the record and I can’t post here all the time.....I took a position in a little company names Tootsie Roll 2 weeks ago (I did not advertise it) and we sold yesterday when it was up 38% in the morning. So I had some fun with that one.
The tragic thing that will happen is at some point Gamestop will be bankrupt and gone. It is almost a certainty. What is going on with the stock is unsustainable. So make your money and get out. Do not be the bag holder. And please be extremely cautious with other so called “let’s crush the shorts’ positions. Use money you are willing to lose 100% of. Do not put your life savings into these vehicles. Could you get very rich very fast? Yeah....good luck knowing when to sell. Good luck knowing when to get off the drug. It is extremely dangerous.
Make some money folks. I am all for it. But understand this is pure gambling. And the rules get changed on the fly, by the minute, by the second sometimes.
Still love AMT, MDU, EBS at these levels for the long term. AAPL had an amazing quarter.....just amazing. And it is down pre-market.....LMFAO. Yeah......the top is going to blow sooner than later.