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Not sure if anyone followed my on AVGO @350, but sold to get into RBLX today

 
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Sand said:
Big mistake for the US to let go of it's helium reserve.  Prices have gone way up.  I have heard of new supply coming online in the middle east, but haven't seen that reflected in the price.  Some nat gas wells have it, some don't.  It is expensive to setup the extraction machinery.

I also happen to know the biggest single consumer in the US - glad I don't have their bill for this.
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Will address in more detail tomorrow but in short, Amarillo, TX was the helium capital of NA. Forever and ever it had stored what everybody needed.  But supply dried up and the final auction was 2018. The last of the reserves is for US Govt only.  So you are absolutely right but this was inevitable and what we DO have left is for national self interest.  

Also right about Qatar however, shipping helium ain't like shipping oil.  Once you liquefy your ship clock starts running before it turns into gaseous form and begins to escape.  God help us if the straight of Hormuz (sp?) halts transport. 

Also right that separating helium out of other gasses is challenging.  

Good to read a thought bubble from another FBG who sees the handwriting on the wall. 

 
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General Malaise said:
Will address in more detail tomorrow but in short, Amarillo, TX was the helium capital of NA. Forever and ever it had stored what everybody needed.  But supply dried up and the final auction was 2018. The last of the reserves is for US Govt only.  So you are absolutely right but this was inevitable and what we DO have left is for national self interest.  

Also right about Qatar however, shipping helium ain't like shipping oil.  Once you liquefy your ship clock starts running before it turns into gaseous form and begins to escape.  God help us if the straight of Hormuz (sp?) halts transport. 

Also right that separating helium out of other gasses is challenging.  

Good to read a thought bubble from another FBG who sees the handwriting on the wall. 
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We are talking about it in the penny thread.  Even though its at a high, you like?  think it will pull back some?

 
FreeBaGeL said:
It's interesting because perma-bear Michael Burry has been screaming "bubble" for a good bit now.  But the interesting part about his take on things is that while he obviously thinks GME and the penny stocks and whatnot are speculative nonsense, he thinks the biggest bubble that is going to massively pop is the mega-caps.  He thinks "the world's largest companies are massively overvalued".  He's talking Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, etc.  Stuff that people consider "safe".

He's just one guy (obviously with a notable track record), but it's an interesting thought.  It's easy to say Apple/Amazon/etc are great companies so they deserve to be worth a lot, but these companies have run a TON in the last few years.

It gets easy to overlook/forget about stuff like Apple adding 5x the total market cap of Netflix to its valuation simply by announcing a stock split, which when you set all the other crazy stuff to the side is mind bendingly insane all on its own.

The current combined market cap of Exxon, Coca Cola, Nike, Wells Fargo, and Pfizer are worth less than the amount the market cap of Microsoft has increased in the last 2 years.  INCREASED.  That's not saying Microsoft is worth more than all of those companies combined.  That's saying Microsoft's value has increased in the last 2 years more than all of those companies are worth combined.  Is that sustainable?  Has Microsoft really grown by the total value of Exxon, Coke, Nike, Wells, and Pfizer in the last 2 years?
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First, you won’t get a disagreement from me on Apple about the stock split. That was ridiculous but not as bad as Tesla’s. Second, I’ll just throw some stats out about Amazon (since I know them well) and some of the others you mentioned:

WFC - 2020 Revenue $58B, growth -30%, P/S @ 3

KO - 2020 Revenue $33B, growth -11%, P/S @ 7

XOM - 2020 Revenue $180B, growth -30%, P/S @ 1.5

NKE - 2020 Revenue $37B, growth -5%, P/S @ 6

AMZN - 2020 Revenue $386B, growth -+37%, P/S @ 4

Amazon’s 2020 revenue was greater than all 4 combined and it’s cheaper than two and more expensive than two going down in revenue 30% while it went up 37%. I don’t know Apple and Microsoft as well but Amazon has a heck of an argument to be worth more than the other four combined. There’s no question which one I’d want to own in 5 years.

I forgot to add Pfizer but it’s about the same as the others in terms of price except that unlike the others, it grew in 2020. Only 2% but still not down.

 
stbugs said:
First, you won’t get a disagreement from me on Apple about the stock split. That was ridiculous but not as bad as Tesla’s. Second, I’ll just throw some stats out about Amazon (since I know them well) and some of the others you mentioned:

WFC - 2020 Revenue $58B, growth -30%, P/S @ 3

KO - 2020 Revenue $33B, growth -11%, P/S @ 7

XOM - 2020 Revenue $180B, growth -30%, P/S @ 1.5

NKE - 2020 Revenue $37B, growth -5%, P/S @ 6

AMZN - 2020 Revenue $386B, growth -+37%, P/S @ 4

Amazon’s 2020 revenue was greater than all 4 combined and it’s cheaper than two and more expensive than two going down in revenue 30% while it went up 37%. I don’t know Apple and Microsoft as well but Amazon has a heck of an argument to be worth more than the other four combined. There’s no question which one I’d want to own in 5 years.

I forgot to add Pfizer but it’s about the same as the others in terms of price except that unlike the others, it grew in 2020. Only 2% but still not down.
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4 brands past their prime. And that leaves the one living off an athlete who retired (again) 2 decades ago.

Sounds about right. 

 
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stbugs said:
First, you won’t get a disagreement from me on Apple about the stock split. That was ridiculous but not as bad as Tesla’s. Second, I’ll just throw some stats out about Amazon (since I know them well) and some of the others you mentioned:

WFC - 2020 Revenue $58B, growth -30%, P/S @ 3

KO - 2020 Revenue $33B, growth -11%, P/S @ 7

XOM - 2020 Revenue $180B, growth -30%, P/S @ 1.5

NKE - 2020 Revenue $37B, growth -5%, P/S @ 6

AMZN - 2020 Revenue $386B, growth -+37%, P/S @ 4

Amazon’s 2020 revenue was greater than all 4 combined and it’s cheaper than two and more expensive than two going down in revenue 30% while it went up 37%. I don’t know Apple and Microsoft as well but Amazon has a heck of an argument to be worth more than the other four combined. There’s no question which one I’d want to own in 5 years.

I forgot to add Pfizer but it’s about the same as the others in terms of price except that unlike the others, it grew in 2020. Only 2% but still not down.
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Love me some AMZN, especially if new guy decides to split.

 
Capella said:
I have to say it was a little unsettling how quickly I reloaded on that dip. Like, I didn’t even think about it. I hammered it super fast. I’m into it. 
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This is the OG cappy I want to meet out for beverages 

 
General Malaise said:
Will address in more detail tomorrow but in short, Amarillo, TX was the helium capital of NA. Forever and ever it had stored what everybody needed.  But supply dried up and the final auction was 2018. The last of the reserves is for US Govt only.  So you are absolutely right but this was inevitable and what we DO have left is for national self interest.  

Also right about Qatar however, shipping helium ain't like shipping oil.  Once you liquefy your ship clock starts running before it turns into gaseous form and begins to escape.  God help us if the straight of Hormuz (sp?) halts transport. 

Also right that separating helium out of other gasses is challenging.  

Good to read a thought bubble from another FBG who sees the handwriting on the wall. 
Click to expand...
Nice work with the FOMO here

:rant:

 
I have a cost basis of $68 with RBLX and premarket showing $77.  I think the shark move here is to be patient see how it plays over the next couple weeks.  I would definitely average down if possible, but I'm guessing some FOMO is starting.

 
My cost basis with GME is $200.  I am hesitant with the size of my position to average up at all.  I'm definitely not going to sell, just wish I could be helpful here.

 
FWIW - DMEHF is passing all of my DD #### tests.  I also like its market cap of 115m.  Since they are already profitable I am optimistic they will not look to dilute shares to raise capital.

 
JAA said:
Interesting makeup.  Some big blue chips in there.
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Yeah, I went for a blend. I don't need this to sky 🚀. Between this, my wife Roth IRA (broad market ETFs) and the TSP, I'm aiming for moderate growth with more risk in my IRA.

I'll gamble in other accounts.

 
⚡DEADHEAD⚡ said:
Like Facebook.
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I think that’s the right comparison. It’s also more a platform than a game so while people want to compare it to fortnite or Minecraft, it’s more closely a mix between Facebook and Xbox. 

 
 
Domestic Equity        46.08%        X    
 
Large Cap        7.67%        X        
EXC        1.84%        X        
GE        5.5%        X        
SQ        0.33%        X    
 
Mid Cap        15.4%        X    
LUV        8.45%        X    
BB        6.84%        X        
WAB        0.11%        X    
 
Small Cap        20.35%        X        
EBS        0.63%        X        
IRBT        4.85%        X        
IBIO        1%        X    
GME        8.61%        X    
BLDP        3.39%        X        
SWX        1.92%        X        
 
Other Domestic Equity        2.66%        X        
PRMO        0.11%        X    
UNVC        0.16%        X        
LTNC        0.73%        X    
ICBU        0.49%        X    
CBBT        0.13%        X        
LGTT        0%        X        
IMJX        0%        X        
TNXP        0.82%        X        
VSYM        0.22%        X        
 
International Equity        18.91%        X        
Developed Markets        18.91%        X        
GRMN        18.91%        X        
 
Emerging Markets        0%        X        
 
Other International Equity        0%        X
 
Specialty        1%        X        
QCLN        1%        X        
 
Domestic Fixed Income        0%        X

International Fixed Income        0%        X

Cash and Equivalents        8.75%        X        
 
Cash        8.75%        X        
Cash        8.75%        X        
 
Other/Unclassified        0%        X        
Total        100%        X    
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Oz post got me thinking about my portfolio.  Since this is my day trading account, I have no targets for it.  This account has been open for like 10 years (was originally a Scottrade account).  I didnt start being really active until a year or so ago.

Looking at the percentages Im a lot more balanced than I thought - LOL!

Whats funny for those playing along, the totals there dont add up to 100%, it adds up to 73.7%.  I know its missing AYRWF which is a significant chunk. Not sure what else.  Im sure just another lever the hedgies are wielding against me to keep me down!!

 
JAA said:
Oz post got me thinking about my portfolio.  Since this is my day trading account, I have no targets for it.  This account has been open for like 10 years (was originally a Scottrade account).  I didnt start being really active until a year or so ago.

Looking at the percentages Im a lot more balanced than I thought - LOL!

Whats funny for those playing along, the totals there dont add up to 100%, it adds up to 73.7%.  I know its missing AYRWF which is a significant chunk. Not sure what else.  Im sure just another lever the hedgies are wielding against me to keep me down!!
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Mission accomplished. 

 
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I’m starting to feel like I should have jumped in with my remaining cash on Friday morning or Monday afternoon. Sucks when you are tied up (off on Friday had errands/kid stuff and lacrosse game drop off with crappy cell coverage on Monday) and I didn’t feel like I had time to make smart calls. Would have only been a few percent of my portfolio so the jump back up was more significant anyway.

 
BLDP earnings at 11am.

Hoping its already been beat down to a level where neutral or even slightly bad news won't kill it much further, and good news sends it to the ####### moon. 🚀

eta, nvm, they already announced a $.04 miss but market didn't hate it.

 
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My RBLX strategy is similar to my DIS strategy that I'm using for my daughters.  During the DIS drop last Spring I bought each kid stock that I will cash out and give them at their weddings.  Better DIS does, the better Princess wedding they can have.  Stock drops, lesson learned is that fairly tale weddings aren't real.

RBLX I'll use as a college booster.  When they graduate highschool I'll cash it out and give it to them.  RBLX does well, good for them, maybe get an apartment and not live in the dorms.  RBLX does bad, well that's just too bad, should have tried harder to get scholarships and not play f'n video games all the time.  Now get out.  Glll peas, see you at Christmas.    

 
stbugs said:
I’m starting to feel like I should have jumped in with my remaining cash on Friday morning or Monday afternoon. Sucks when you are tied up (off on Friday had errands/kid stuff and lacrosse game drop off with crappy cell coverage on Monday) and I didn’t feel like I had time to make smart calls. Would have only been a few percent of my portfolio so the jump back up was more significant anyway.
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Yep.

That's a big reason I mostly buy and hold. I might rush to a small mistake in the trading accounts but won't get crushed. 

 
beef said:
My RBLX strategy is similar to my DIS strategy that I'm using for my daughters.  During the DIS drop last Spring I bought each kid stock that I will cash out and give them at their weddings.  Better DIS does, the better Princess wedding they can have.  Stock drops, lesson learned is that fairly tale weddings aren't real.

RBLX I'll use as a college booster.  When they graduate highschool I'll cash it out and give it to them.  RBLX does well, good for them, maybe get an apartment and not live in the dorms.  RBLX does bad, well that's just too bad, should have tried harder to get scholarships and not play f'n video games all the time.  Now get out.  Glll peas, see you at Christmas.    
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I could be misremembering, but aren't dorms more expensive than apartments or house sharing?

If my investments in their college savings do well, there's a fair chance I buy a house to rent to them and their friends. I'm not sure I want their friends to know it's my house, but so far my kids are pretty well behaved.

 
stbugs said:
I’m starting to feel like I should have jumped in with my remaining cash on Friday morning or Monday afternoon. Sucks when you are tied up (off on Friday had errands/kid stuff and lacrosse game drop off with crappy cell coverage on Monday) and I didn’t feel like I had time to make smart calls. Would have only been a few percent of my portfolio so the jump back up was more significant anyway.
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Same here but almost everything I'm looking for is still lower than where I would have bought a few weeks ago. I don't mind losing those few points to feel totally confident going long term. I'm waiting to see if the stimulus euphoria wears off and the market drops again. I'm very conservative with investments so most wouldn't agree.

 
Was a 10% loss early followed by a run-up the perfect start for GME? I admit I don't really understand the short restrictions because it hit 10% loss from yesterday's close. 

 
-OZ- said:
Yep.

That's a big reason I mostly buy and hold. I might rush to a small mistake in the trading accounts but won't get crushed. 
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Me too. I did have a list (still do) of things I wanted to add to and I sold some Amazon to make sure I had cash after those purchases. I bought a few things, which are mostly up, on Thursday but wish I had a little extra time on Friday and Monday. That said, it’s entirely possible that the past few days were just a little bounce due to the stimulus. Will just enjoy the green and see when to finish off the other positions so I can set it and forget it for a while.

 
JB Breakfast Club said:
Was a 10% loss early followed by a run-up the perfect start for GME? I admit I don't really understand the short restrictions because it hit 10% loss from yesterday's close. 
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yes this means that it is on the SSR list for Friday which will trigger even more option calls.

The SSR means they can short on an uptick only (so they can't pile up the shorts in rapid succession)

This remains on track for an explosive liftoff soon. I am looking to pair down my lofty position starting near market close on 3/22.

 
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jamny said:
Same here but almost everything I'm looking for is still lower than where I would have bought a few weeks ago. I don't mind losing those few points to feel totally confident going long term. I'm waiting to see if the stimulus euphoria wears off and the market drops again. I'm very conservative with investments so most wouldn't agree.
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Agree on the still well off peak and also just posted the same thoughts on the stimulus. 

 
stbugs said:
Me too. I did have a list (still do) of things I wanted to add to and I sold some Amazon to make sure I had cash after those purchases. I bought a few things, which are mostly up, on Thursday but wish I had a little extra time on Friday and Monday. That said, it’s entirely possible that the past few days were just a little bounce due to the stimulus. Will just enjoy the green and see when to finish off the other positions so I can set it and forget it for a while.
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SPACs still on sale for you :lol:

We had a lot of new cash but some job uncertainty so didn't put very much in either. 

 
JAA said:
My cost basis with GME is $200.  I am hesitant with the size of my position to average up at all.  I'm definitely not going to sell, just wish I could be helpful here.
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DD, we still good with the hedgies and shorties and calls executing 3/12 and 3/19?

... or did yesterdays move change any of that?

Looking to pick up some more today if I can get it closer to $210 or so ... or just bite the bullet and pay market here.

 
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