Desert_Power
Footballguy
Market not liking the PSTH deal. I wouldn't either.
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Stock Thread (18 Viewers)
- Thread starter St. Louis Bob
- Start date
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I got something from Fidelity indicating ZIM had a secondary offering, 6M or so shares. Pricing and IOI was last night, so I assume this will close today. Any easy way of identifying that it has finalized and shares distributed?
JAA
Footballguy
Am I chopped liver because I was traveling today? What about Bob is fine and all, but what about me? Yes, I should have bought DOCU when it was staring at me in the $60s, but MDB had a nice day. It’s now my second biggest holding behind AMZN. I sold more ZM and TTD, but it’s #2 now.
Bossman
Footballguy
So you like HGEN, Todem recommendation, things looking up...
You want to own more shares and you're ready to pull the trigger on 1000 shares at $18. ... $18,000
... But wait, let me ask you this...
Why not sell 10 $17.50 puts, Jul 16 strike date, that is paying you $2.60 per share...
This gives you $2600 immediately ..
If the price doesn't fall to $17.50, free money. $2600. Take it and buy some shares ... Or sell puts again.
If the price DOES drop below$17.50, the shares are put to you and your cost basis is $14.90 ($17.50 less $2.60)
...vs the $18 cost basis that you would have been sitting on had you just bought the stock.
You want to own more shares and you're ready to pull the trigger on 1000 shares at $18. ... $18,000
... But wait, let me ask you this...
Why not sell 10 $17.50 puts, Jul 16 strike date, that is paying you $2.60 per share...
This gives you $2600 immediately ..
If the price doesn't fall to $17.50, free money. $2600. Take it and buy some shares ... Or sell puts again.
If the price DOES drop below$17.50, the shares are put to you and your cost basis is $14.90 ($17.50 less $2.60)
...vs the $18 cost basis that you would have been sitting on had you just bought the stock.
McBokonon
Footballguy
- It gets approved in the interim and skyrockets so you miss out on the larger gains
There’s other downsides but that’s the obvious one here. I don’t think it’s a bad strategy, necessarily.
Capella
Footballguy
identikit
Footballguy
NajehHejan
Footballguy
Is this the same strategy that made you a board member of NERV?
Kidding. Good idea actually. I may do it.
NajehHejan
Footballguy
I know a lot but of guys here made big money on BNGO. I was late to the party, sold $11 puts, got the shares put to me, and sold at a big loss around $8. Watched it die to $5. Told myself to push all my chips in and load up at $5. Was scared it would drop further, so didn’t. It’s now just above $7 and is getting reddit WSB attention. I think I’m going to buy $50,000 worth on Monday morning and hopefully retire early. Good plan?
Angry Beavers
Footballguy
IDK - all of the CNBC talk of naked shorts has me thinking that the Ape Community has just been given even more fuel and both AMC and GME could squeeze sooner and harder than expected. Of course, I could be completely wrong as well bu I do not see the capacity for WSB to take on too many more children until AMC and GME pop off. Of course, after that, who know there they go and if you beat them there..................
I don't think that's wise on this stock. Two outcomes...
1. EUA approval and you are looking at $28. $10000 - $2600 = $7400 lost.
2. No EUA and you are looking at sub $10. $2600 savings buying the puts.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Sounds similar to teledoc. (And another favorite). I'll gladly take sustainable growth over current profit in most companies (I'll keep some value too)Bob Sacamano said:No. My wife only lets us cuddle.
(blews out)
To start, I'm a fan of nouns that become verbs. It doesn't have to be ubiquitous, as long as it happens in the right corners of the world. When people around my office started saying, "Docusign it", that got my attention. I started following the company and the stock, eventually buying at price points I liked.
My expectation was that this was going to be a very long term play. They were growing revenue 30+%, and they have 70% of the Esignature market, which is only going to grow. And then Covid hit. Very long-term accelerated into, "Oh, ####, do I hang onto this?" Sure, the smart play would have been to sell at $290 and buy back sub-$200 (The pop to $290 didn't even happen because of their earnings, amusingly, but was a reaction to ZM earnings iirc).
But along the way, I've been listening to earnings calls, watching management, listening to what they're doing, etc. I want to own this company long-term. What's reinforced my belief and expectations is that they're no longer just an esignature company. They're a contract/document lifecycle company. And they're very sticky. Once you have a contract process and repository that's working inside a large corporation, how likely are you to leave it to transition to something else (see 125% NRR posted above)?
They also purchased a small company with (what seems like) a fantastic AI tool that reviews contracts and flags terms, conditions, phrases, etc for further review, exceptions to policy, etc. It's supposed to save substantial time ($$) in legal review. This is in its infant stages. I'm curious to see how this plays out for them in reality. I love the idea of it, but can they make money off of it?
So, I've been watching through Covid. I like their management team. They're taking the AMZN approach. They don't care if people don't like that they're losing money right now. They could be profitable, but they're reinvesting into the business, this quarter be damned. And coming out of Covid, when the stay-at-home stocks are supposed to start floundering, revenue growth is continuing to accelerate. That won't last forever, but I'll wait and see how it plays out.
Finally, I default back to what I said to BnB. My basis is low. It's easy for me to watch and wait. If this dumps 25%, I'm still OK. For people looking at it today, DOCU is NOT cheap. But I still think there's money to be made, even if it doesn't come in the form of
tl; dr
I was putting off adding DocuSign but I think it may be like putting off apple.
-OZ-
Footballguy
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
It seems to have a difficult time holding 230. I'd be shocked if a single day 20% pop holds past Tues or Weds without a bit of a pullback. I'd watch for a few days next week.
Obviously I could be wrong. It could just run.
I own TDOC, too, but I got my basis out of it when it tripled. I just don't know that there's a moat that gives them the same upside. There's a switching cost that some other provider has to make up to get a customer to leave DOCU. TDOC has a first mover edge, but what's keeping people, providers, companies, etc w/TDOC? Maybe there's a good answer to that, but I don't know what it is.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
And it's WAY too early to think of them like AAPL. Let's get 1/10 of the way there, and I'll be pretty pleased.
-OZ-
Footballguy
My comment was more due to my own reluctance to buy apple. Not that DocuSign is the next apple (it's not). It could very easily be the next brand name that everyone associates with the product or action. Like xerox, Kleenex, Google, etc. But we don't use the product as often as those.
Bossman
Footballguy
I misspoke. Todem did not list HGEN.
I think I had it confused with BLDP ... which is a very different animal.
Bossman
Footballguy
1. Guarantees you 14% in 5 weeks.
... But yes, guarantees you no more.
2. I'd rather not think about this scenario but yes, softens the blow.
And even if no FDA decision by July 16, still gets you 14%
McBokonon
Footballguy
Quiet period over so here come the $GLBE analyst ratings.
Jefferies: PT $44(Buy)
Goldman Sachs: PT $44(Buy)
JMP Securities: PT $43(Outperform)
Piper Sandler: PT $42(Overweight)
KeyBancan: PT $42(Overweight)
Morgan Stanley: PT $42(Overweight)
Raymond James: PT $41(Outperform)
Up 1.4% premarket.
JB Breakfast Club
Footballguy
Stonks
JAA
Footballguy
Anyone still interested in this pig? Im still down 15% and I dont see any horizon
JAA
Footballguy
JAA
Footballguy
JAA
Footballguy
For those on the penny front - consider $PBYA. Ive been stalking this non-FBG internet guy. I already gleaned from him NWGC (sold +100%). This is another he is thinking could pop.
Low market cap, high volume and the stock keeps fluxuating +/- 30%.
I got no idea of this is a 10-bagger or going straight to 0. Take a look and look YMMV. Im in 1/4 share and prepared to average down 1 time if needed.
Low market cap, high volume and the stock keeps fluxuating +/- 30%.
I got no idea of this is a 10-bagger or going straight to 0. Take a look and look YMMV. Im in 1/4 share and prepared to average down 1 time if needed.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Up 8.42%. I’ve pounded the table enough on this here now. Would be wise to scale in at this point because it’s not cheap, but this has all the makings of a big long term winner, or SHOP could just buy them.
Yeah, ain’t cheap right now. I’m watching as many times IPOs fall into a lull after the initial push up.
McBokonon
Footballguy
Speaking of - $UPST lockup expiration is next Thursday according to the NASDAQ site. That might be the pullback you're waiting for to add or for anyone else to start a position. Or it might not be.
$GLBE has performed well but hasn't completely exploded. Pullback has to happen but it's not like it went double the IPO price on opening day or anything like a lot of hot IPO's. I think the fact that it's based in Israel might mean it's underfollowed for now. Might change after the analyst barrage today, though.
Still upset at myself for UPST. I’d love another pull back, doesn’t have to go to $80 again even 100-120 would be appreciated. It’s done great but I wasn’t expecting that type of pop since it hit the $80s again after earnings.
CLOV and KALA have done better lately. Thinking about dumping those and throwing it in GLBE. Don’t mind buying a little high since those have gone up as much recently, especially CLOV.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
I'm planning to hold it long-term, but it's a freeroll for me. I got my basis out when it hit $30.
They clearly have the backing of the Canadian government, they're further down the road than most of the EV SPACs, they just announced their first production facility in the US (which will be key to obtaining any of the EV money Biden is planning to throw around, some of which I would think would include school buses and trucks), and they're in a niche where they're not currently competing with TSLA.
They're definitely not going to be profitable anytime soon, but they shouldn't be worried about that right now. Revenue growth, vehicle delivery growth, and continuing to beat out competition for contracts are the things we should be most concerned about right now imo. Though it has been a pretty fantastic last month, and if you're worried more about the short-term, I could see using this as an opportunity to cut bait. It is going to be a volatile ride. TSLA traded sideways for 3 years and has still seen a lot of volatility. And they're not TSLA.
dkp993
Footballguy
Today is nice for sure, but this does make me nervous…..
https://www.marketbeat.com/instant-alerts/nasdaq-hgen-insider-buying-and-selling-2021-06/
Capella
Footballguy
I thought it had some Nader vibes to it as well but somebody said it was scheduled for some reason and he owns like 1.8M shares. So 127k out of that isn’t significant.
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Dwayne Hoover
Footballguy
LLY having a pretty good day on the back of Biogen's success with their Alzheimer's drug. The barrier for entry may have gotten lowered upon Biogen's approval today as LLY also has an Alzheimer's drug that recently finished a phase 2 trial, Donanemab
I'm going to put more into LLY on next pullback, already have a good amount and with their pipeline, they are a pretty safe play longterm regardless.
I'm going to put more into LLY on next pullback, already have a good amount and with their pipeline, they are a pretty safe play longterm regardless.
Dwayne Hoover
Footballguy
KALA don't call it a comeback. Starting to show life again.
Expecting good second half for them and also a buyout candidate. No concerns at this time.
Expecting good second half for them and also a buyout candidate. No concerns at this time.
Chaz McNulty
Footballguy
Some other beneficiaries of the FDA approval of Biogen's drug, include mobile infusion companies, those associated with amyloid measurements, such as PET scanning and amyloid tracers, and blood-based biomarkers. Others in the neuroscience discovery business could benefit. But there is a ways to go before insurance companies will reimburse for the Biogen drug. In the Lilly Phase 3 trial, pets scans are given after 24 weeks, and if enough amyloid is removed, dosing stops. Lilly says their drug is better at removing amyloid.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
General Malaise
Footballguy
Glad I re-added this thing. This has moved to a long-term hold for me.
That little cruise line I bought (Lindbald) is having a decent day. Their cruises look awesome - and this comes from a guy who swore off taking another cruise 20 years ago. I'm intrigued by their offerings (just not rich enough to entertain them).
Capella
Footballguy
Somebody on Twitter this weekend said it was a prescheduled sale set quite a while ago. I’ll try to find it. And I was wrong, he has 13.5M shares lol. You’d find my ### on an island somewhere.
Bob Sacamano
Footballguy
Your point about % of ownership remains, but according to this it was not scheduled (see 10b5-1 column).
They also show on fintel, which normally excludes 10b5-1 sales.
Capella
Footballguy
You may be right; I’ll try to find it.
But why would he sell 75k shares when he owns 13.5 if it wasn’t prescheduled?
dkp993
Footballguy
He sold an additional 127k (so 200ish total) just 2 days later. No matter how much you own why sell 200k if an event that’s going to spike the price is on the horizon? Scheduled sale would make sense but other then that I’m not sure what else does.
