Stock Thread (35 Viewers)

[guru_007]

oh boy, PSFE 

yeah, tell me about it. my not so fun story...

Last week was reviewing my brokerage account and I had sold a number of positions earlier this year and know I'm already getting hammered around tax time.  Have a few more that are just up so big (hello NVDA) that I don't know wtf to do tbh because it's all taxable.  Anywho, I have exactly one position in the red - PSFE, was down about 20%.  I said, eff it, sell this pig, and buy back early next year and at least offset some gains.  Sell order, gtc at $7.60.  Never tripped.

Now this ####er's down 64% for me.   

 

[FreeBaGeL]

yeah, tell me about it. my not so fun story...

Last week was reviewing my brokerage account and I had sold a number of positions earlier this year and know I'm already getting hammered around tax time.  Have a few more that are just up so big (hello NVDA) that I don't know wtf to do tbh because it's all taxable.  Anywho, I have exactly one position in the red - PSFE, was down about 20%.  I said, eff it, sell this pig, and buy back early next year and at least offset some gains.  Sell order, gtc at $7.60.  Never tripped.

Now this ####er's down 64% for me.   

Now you save even more taxes!

 

[Capella]

Did the ornament have cocaine inside of it?

Every time I leave there I think I need drugs to get past what we spent 

 

[Sand]

Like I posted about crypto, soon there will be so many they won't be special.   

For my readers, think about what happened with the baseball card market in the 90's.  Crypto and NFT following the exact same path. 

somewhat rare and desirable<new entries into the market<over saturation<mostly worthless 

I do agree with Disney and NFTs, though.  They have some absolutely incredible properties that would be a goldmine for selling to collectors.

 

[The Man With No Name]

MDU

If you never got in on this energy/utility/infrastructure company.....it is down today because their earnings in their construction arm were down from 2020.....naturally it should be with the increase in materials costs, shortage of supplies and labor. They are a solid solid company that pays a good growing dividend. 

BISMARCK, N.D., Nov. 11, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- MDU Resources Group, Inc.'s (NYSE: MDU) board of directors today increased the company's quarterly common stock dividend to 21.75 cents per share, for an annualized dividend of 87 cents per share. This is the 31st consecutive year that MDU Resources has increased its common stock dividend. The previous quarterly dividend was 21.25 cents per share.

 

[KGB]

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but Star Wars NFTs dropped today and bots bought them all up in less than a millisecond.

Good to know.

im not really into the NFT space, but I think it can make DIS a mint

 

[KGB]

I do agree with Disney and NFTs, though.  They have some absolutely incredible properties that would be a goldmine for selling to collectors.

My son has 1 share of DIS and I have 0, but I feel like I talked myself into getting some 

 

[2Squirrels1Nut]

I do agree with Disney and NFTs, though.  They have some absolutely incredible properties that would be a goldmine for selling to collectors.

I do as well. There is proven generational staying power. 

 

[identikit]

My son has 1 share of DIS and I have 0, but I feel like I talked myself into getting some 

I don't think DIS is your style. gb

 

[KGB]

I don't think DIS is your style. gb

Im like donald duck leading the marching band for disney in here lol.  

https://www.pngitem.com/middle/ibJmhx_playing-the-drum-in-a-marching-band-donald/

It is what I recommended to my son, although, I now I wish tesla.

He also put in $500 towards the pulsechain crypto coming out soon.  So, we are diversed! 

 

[KGB]

I'm really surprised draftkings is at its 52 week low.

Everyone I know uses it for gambling.

Is it because they spend so much on ads?  Which I consider investing in the biz and trying to be #1 in the online gambling market?

Isnt this pretty much what amazon did for those years before it popped?

 

[McBokonon]

I'm really surprised draftkings is at its 52 week low.

Everyone I know uses it for gambling.

Is it because they spend so much on ads?  Which I consider investing in the biz and trying to be #1 in the online gambling market?

Isnt this pretty much what amazon did for those years before it popped?

Anecdotal evidence aside, there’s a ton of competitors, their customer acquisition costs are crazy (ads, promos, bonuses, etc) and margins are historically low for sports betting. I’ve given my opinion on the betting app stocks a lot so won’t rehash it all again, but I’m not convinced the apps are the way to invest in the growth of sports betting. 

 

[BassNBrew]

yeah, tell me about it. my not so fun story...

Last week was reviewing my brokerage account and I had sold a number of positions earlier this year and know I'm already getting hammered around tax time.  Have a few more that are just up so big (hello NVDA) that I don't know wtf to do tbh because it's all taxable.  Anywho, I have exactly one position in the red - PSFE, was down about 20%.  I said, eff it, sell this pig, and buy back early next year and at least offset some gains.  Sell order, gtc at $7.60.  Never tripped.

Now this ####er's down 64% for me.   

I thought you wanted losers to harvest.

 

[dkp993]

No one watches Disney+ until a new series is on. I think that’s what may be a problem

You clearly don’t have a young daughter.  Disney+ is almost always on in my home.  

 

[identikit]

Buehler....

Buehler...

 

[stbugs]

Buehler....

Buehler...

Seems like a good day. I do need to clear up some cash (new investing round) so I’ll be making some trades this afternoon. Mainly cleanup of small positions that I don’t feel are in the future plans.

Other than that, I think a lot of people took off today to make it a long weekend.

 

[McBokonon]

I survived the great growth stock pullback of a couple weeks ago

I survived the great growth stock pullback of Wednesday

 

[Todem]

We are now officially 30% cash. 

Now we just sit.......and wait.

 

[General Malaise]

Little 'ol Playgon having itself a day.  $0.40 CDN right now up 8% on the day.  Cmon little buddy.....

 

[beef]

We are now officially 30% cash. 

Now we just sit.......and wait.

Collecting and not deploying, or from selling, or both?  

 

[beef]

I was about 20% cash but used half of that on longs (PYPL, PLTR & JETS) this week. 

 

[pecorino]

We are now officially 30% cash. 

Now we just sit.......and wait.

Any short positions?

 

[KGB]

We are now officially 30% cash. 

Now we just sit.......and wait.

 

[BassNBrew]

We are now officially 30% cash. 

Now we just sit.......and wait.

I just went on a selling spree and am at 13% cash.  I'd like to get to 25% but can't decide what else to trim.  What are your thoughts on rather than selling more stock, putting some of that cash in a 3x bear fund as a hedge.  If I'm wrong and the market goes up 10% from here, I still have the profits from the stocks I didn't sell. 

 

[McBokonon]

Went ahead and did some trimming myself, outright sold one position ($SHOP, nothing against it, may get back in if there’s a pullback, but if not no biggie, great run.) Sold enough to be ready but not miss out if we keep going. 15% cash.

 

[Capella]

As always, at 0% cash baby 

 

[urbanhack]

Heard an Industry focus podcast about $SEMR a week or so ago and added it to my watchlist. Decided to start a position today. Another company helping businesses get noticed out on the innerwebs. Lot of competition but they're customer agnostic (unlike a Google, for example.) Net revenue retention above 120%. IPO'd recently but is past most of the weird bumpy parts. I like the stock.

I'm a frequent user of their free analytical tools, but not a paying customer. Yes, a very competitive space (ahrefs.com), but they are a leader for sure.

 

[Todem]

Collecting and not deploying, or from selling, or both?  

Taking profits and selling a couple of dogs as well. I am also saving cash. But I am still pouring into my 401K regardless of anything.

Any short positions?

No.

I just went on a selling spree and am at 13% cash.  I'd like to get to 25% but can't decide what else to trim.  What are your thoughts on rather than selling more stock, putting some of that cash in a 3x bear fund as a hedge.  If I'm wrong and the market goes up 10% from here, I still have the profits from the stocks I didn't sell. 

I will never touch those ETN’s. Very very dangerous and a great way to lose money fast. You can’t sit on those and wait. They are not meant for buy, hold and wait as they acrue and rollover every day.

Just like Vix and Tvix….you gotta time it perfectly. 95-99% chance you always lose money in those vehicles. 
 
Stay far away from that crap.

 

[JAA]

Collecting and not deploying, or from selling, or both?  

Taking profits and selling a couple of dogs as well. I am also saving cash. But I am still pouring into my 401K regardless of anything.

this

 

[JAA]

We are now officially 30% cash. 

Now we just sit.......and wait.

 - ive been selling slowing, taking some peaks as I can.  Im at 24%.  How long do we wait?

 

[Todem]

 - ive been selling slowing, taking some peaks as I can.  Im at 24%.  How long do we wait?

I will post in here when to deploy. And it may take a month, 3 months, 5 months.

I am speculating a correction next year. When? I am not that good.

 

[General Malaise]

Little 'ol Playgon having itself a day.  $0.40 CDN right now up 8% on the day.  Cmon little buddy.....

+21% on the day....come on little guy, keep going...keep going!

 

[General Malaise]

I will post in here when to deploy. And it may take a month, 3 months, 5 months.

I am speculating a correction next year. When? I am not that good.

What do you envision as the catalyst?  Inflation?  Evergrande?  More Covid?  It certainly feels like we're overdue.

 

[McBokonon]

Anecdotal evidence aside, there’s a ton of competitors, their customer acquisition costs are crazy (ads, promos, bonuses, etc) and margins are historically low for sports betting. I’ve given my opinion on the betting app stocks a lot so won’t rehash it all again, but I’m not convinced the apps are the way to invest in the growth of sports betting. 

Wynn terminated their SPAC to take Wynn Interactive public as a standalone company.

“… in light of elevated marketing and promotional spend in the sports betting industry, we are pivoting our user acquisition efforts to a more targeted ROI-focused strategy. “In so doing, we expect the capital intensity of the business to decline meaningfully beginning in the first quarter of 2022.”

“While sports betting remains an exciting high-growth market and will potentially be a $30 billion to $40 billion total addressable market over time, the marketplace is proving to be very competitive with multiple operators deploying meaningful marketing dollars, driving high cost per acquisition, and significant customer bonus offers,” he said. “In light of this dynamic, we are intentionally pivoting our approach to scaling. taking a more measured and long-term focus to grow healthy and sustainable business.”

So they’re exiting the land grab because it’s not worth it.

I mentioned in the gambling thread a while back that Wynn didn’t have the same level of promos and bonuses that others like Draftkings and Fanduel do.

 

[KGB]

Out rivn up 18%

 

[Todem]

What do you envision as the catalyst?  Inflation?  Evergrande?  More Covid?  It certainly feels like we're overdue.

The Fed is going to pump the brakes on the economy to slow it down because of the acceleration on inflation. If they don’t cool down the economy soon.....it is going to get away from them quickly. While I believe it is absolutely transitory....the fact of the matter is....it is getting really bad and everyone is really not happy. There are a lot of forces at work here and I am not going to go heavily into it. But the bottom line....monetary policy will be changing and markets are proactive not reactive to when it happens. This can start in December if the Fed basically expresses it, it can happen in first quarter of next year if they remain dovish in December and not give strong language and remain accommodative (even though I know truly believe this is not going to stay this way in 2022). I expect interest rate hikes to begin no later than 4th quarter 2022 and maybe....3rd quarter 2022. 

Of course....I could be wrong.....but I usually am pretty good at being maybe a little early but being proactive and understanding this market is unsustainable with the current monetary policy in place; is the first step into realizing the market in the short term is very frothy and topping out. The Real Estate market is also a great indicator. My home went up 25% in 2021......let me repeat that...my value went up 25%. That is a clear sign of a bubble. Historically speaking the market hates when interest rates begin to go up and the “recalibration” of the Federal Reserves monetary policy tycally affects equity and bond markets for 3-6 months from the first “wind” of it changing. 

It’s coming. Be prepared. Build some cash to have some fun when asset prices fall in some panic sell off’s and take advantage for your long term benefit. 

The economy is very strong.....too strong now with the lack of supply and so much demand. This is the by product of low unemployment, a huge amount of liquidity with an accommodating Fed, as well as stimulus (which Biden wants to provide even more with the 1.75 trillion package which the progressives wanted what....7 trillion? LOL) ok I don’t want to get political in here.....but it is part of the equation....let's be real here. Also the pandemic really did a number and now we are seeing he full symptoms of the economy shutting down for almost 6 months straight.....it has caused systemic damage to the global supply chain for almost everything. Labors shortages and labor costs too. It is all a perfect storm for the inflation we are getting. 

So the only way you can cool this runaway inflation down is you gotta cool down the economy (demand). Checks and balances. So make no mistake it is going to happen. DO not be complacent.....if you goals are very long term you probably should not be worried at all. But there is still nothing wrong with taking some profits....and having some dry powder to have some good ammunition to go shopping and buy back a lot of your stocks cheaper and add new stocks cheaper. 

And fixed income is also going to feel a jolt. This will be a short term event. 

Cash is always king in corrections.

The last time the Fed pivoted monetary policy was back in 2018 when they began to raise short term rates....and what did the market do? Dropped almost 30% peak to trough. 

I am not saying it will drop 30% again.....but don’t be surprised.....and it will quickly snap back...so don’t get paralyzed by fear. Use the knowledge.....and take advantage.

 

[BassNBrew]

https://investors.uwm.com/news-and-events/news/news-details/2021/UWM-Holdings-Corporation-Announces-Third-Quarter-2021-Results/default.aspx

UWMC had a real solid beat this quarter.  Dividend of 10 cents a share once again, close to 6% return.

 

[General Malaise]

Good post, Todem.  Cheers, buddy.

 

[BassNBrew]

My home went up 25% in 2021......let me repeat that...my value went up 25%. That is a clear sign of a bubble.

I will disagree with you here, it's not a bubble.

1. Homes starts in the 2010's were their lowest since the 1940s-50s.  https://eyeonhousing.org/2020/01/a-decade-of-home-building-the-long-recovery-of-the-2010s/  Our population dwarfs what it was 75 years ago.  Basically your home is Bitcoin except that you can shelter in it.

2. The cost to replicate your home has gone up.  The inflation gains won't be given back.  The income increases won't totally go away.  Material prices will never be as cheap.

3. Wall Street now owns your neighbor's home rather than the bank.  Unless these companies are going to cash out and fold up shop that's competition will remain.

 

[KGB]

Hopping back into BROS at the close

 

[Capella]

I like a lot of what todem wrote but the real estate market is absolutely not a bubble. I’m sorry but that is just a fundamental misunderstanding of what’s going on there. 

 

[identikit]

Out rivn up 18%

Sold half of mine for the same.

 

[Todem]

I will disagree with you here, it's not a bubble.

1. Homes starts in the 2010's were their lowest since the 1940s-50s.  https://eyeonhousing.org/2020/01/a-decade-of-home-building-the-long-recovery-of-the-2010s/  Our population dwarfs what it was 75 years ago.  Basically your home is Bitcoin except that you can shelter in it.

2. The cost to replicate your home has gone up.  The inflation gains won't be given back.  The income increases won't totally go away.  Material prices will never be as cheap.

3. Wall Street now owns your neighbor's home rather than the bank.  Unless these companies are going to cash out and fold up shop that's competition will remain.

I am going to disagree with you in regards to "prices will never come down".

They will.

When demand goes down because interest rates are higher and not everyone can buy more house you will see a pull back. I did not say crash.....I am thinking a modest pull back in real-estate of 6-8% maybe even 10% is possible.....then it will slowly creep back up at the rate of inflation. 

And these private REIT companies will start selling and taking profit.....and wait for a pull back and buy up homes again. It is a natural cycle. 

Make no mistake the economy will re-calibrate. Maybe material prices won’t fall.....but they can freeze as demand slows a lot more......and wages catch up again. 

It is not a perfect science......and I am not claiming to be some economist. But the one thing I have is 25 plus years of market experience.....and I have seen this movie many many many times. The pundits claim “this time it is different” but it’s not. 

The correction will happen as sure as the sun will rise in the east and set in the west and I do think my house going up 25% in 1 year is just insanity. And because it has......things are going to recalibrate here soon from Fed Policy. They manipulate all of this. Make no mistake. 

 

[Todem]

I like a lot of what todem wrote but the real estate market is absolutely not a bubble. I’m sorry but that is just a fundamental misunderstanding of what’s going on there. 

Housing prices are bubbling here. It so much on supply and demand. People are not moving and selling and the demand is so strong down here (I can only speak of South Florida) people are paying stupid prices for homes......and money is dirt cheap. That will change. Money will not be dirt cheap in the next few years, demand will cool and people will see prices dropping a little....then all of a sudden people will flood the market with listings and it becomes a buyers market again. 

To think this is permanent and no way prices are ever coming down.....is flawed thinking IMO. They will. I never said crashing down though. But this.....25% in one year on a home? Not normal....and certainly not the new normal. 

Maybe...just maybe prices don’t pull back....I can get on board with that. But they are not going up every year.....they may flat line for 5,6 years and then start rising again with the rate of inflation.

 

[Capella]

Housing prices are bubbling here. It so much on supply and demand. People are not moving and selling and the demand is so strong down here (I can only speak of South Florida) people are paying stupid prices for homes......and money is dirt cheap. That will change. Money will not be dirt cheap in the next few years, demand will cool and people will see prices dropping a little....then all of a sudden people will flood the market with listings and it becomes a buyers market again. 

To think this is permanent and no way prices are ever coming down.....is flawed thinking IMO. They will. I never said crashing down though. But this.....25% in one year on a home? Not normal....and certainly not the new normal. 

Maybe...just maybe prices don’t pull back....I can get on board with that. But they are not going up every year.....they may flat line for 5,6 years and then start rising again with the rate of inflation.

Oh I certainly expect a pull back of some sort, that’s to be expected imo. When I hear bubble though I think 40% drop or whatever number you want to use - I think a new baseline has been somewhat established and we’ll be operating from there, for the reasons BnB highlighted. This isn’t a loan crisis like 14 years ago but sure, things will cool down. 

 

[KGB]

Hopping back into BROS at the close

Dammit.  Got busy and missed it.

Oh well.  Have a good weekend!

 

[Todem]

Oh I certainly expect a pull back of some sort, that’s to be expected imo. When I hear bubble though I think 40% drop or whatever number you want to use - I think a new baseline has been somewhat established and we’ll be operating from there, for the reasons BnB highlighted. This isn’t a loan crisis like 14 years ago but sure, things will cool down. 

100% agree! Bubble was the wrong word In hindsight. I should have used frothy or topping out short term. In no way is this going to be a housing crash.

 

[ericttspikes]

So the only way you can cool this runaway inflation down is you gotta cool down the economy (demand). Checks and balances. So make no mistake it is going to happen. DO not be complacent.....if you goals are very long term you probably should not be worried at all. But there is still nothing wrong with taking some profits....and having some dry powder to have some good ammunition to go shopping and buy back a lot of your stocks cheaper and add new stocks cheaper. 

Can't the market accomplish this on it's own without the Fed? In the spring, lumber prices were soaring. Most people, including myself, just put off projects requiring lumber because it was crazy to buy a 2x4 for $50 or whatever it was, and then the floor fell out of the lumber market.

I expect the same will happen with the new and used car market. We sold one of our cars and I simply didn't want to pay for an over inflated car and will continue as a one car family until that market busts too. The car manufactures are partially building cars and parking them on their lots waiting for chips. Not sure when, but at some point there is going to be a massive over supply of vehicles out there. Seems dangerous to raise rates to cool the economy and then in a few months have the floors fall out of these supply constrained sectors. But I'm also not an economist. I do know I'm consciously not panic buying anything discretionary, putting off projects and tightening the belt for now in most areas except food and energy consumption.

 

[Todem]

Can't the market accomplish this on it's own without the Fed? In the spring, lumber prices were soaring. Most people, including myself, just put off projects requiring lumber because it was crazy to buy a 2x4 for $50 or whatever it was, and then the floor fell out of the lumber market.

I expect the same will happen with the new and used car market. We sold one of our cars and I simply didn't want to pay for an over inflated car and will continue as a one car family until that market busts too. The car manufactures are partially building cars and parking them on their lots waiting for chips. Not sure when, but at some point there is going to be a massive over supply of vehicles out there. Seems dangerous to raise rates to cool the economy and then in a few months have the floors fall out of these supply constrained sectors. But I'm also not an economist. I do know I'm consciously not panic buying anything discretionary, putting off projects and tightening the belt for now in most areas except food and energy consumption.

They should have been raising rates in 2018 like they did but then it got political. I know they say the Fed is not political…..it is.

We have been in a near zero interest rate environment for over 12 years and counting.

if the pandemic never happened we would have been seeing interest rates moving up by now. It is inevitable and there is nothing now to stop what should have been done 3 years ago.

It can solve itself to only a certain degree. Monetary policy in combination with consumer habits will get this inflation under control far faster than sitting at all time low interest rates.

They are not going to raise them fast. But the correction I am talking about will be long over by the time they make maybe their second interest rate hike. This is going to be a reactionary correction to a shift in monetary policy.

I am not predicting a crash or a recession.

Again not slamming on the brakes….I said pumping the brakes.

Big difference.

 

[ericttspikes]

They should have been raising rates in 2018 like they did but then it got political. I know they say the Fed is not political…..it is.

We have been in a near zero interest rate environment for over 12 years and counting.

if the pandemic never happened we would have been seeing interest rates moving up by now. It is inevitable and there is nothing now to stop what should have been done 3 years ago.

Like I said, I'm not an economist, just a guy trying to get through life. Other than slowing down the economy, making debt more expensive, giving a higher return on savings accounts and making more money for banks, I guess I don't understand the need to raise interest rates. Even the tax code has changed to make debt even more punitive. Not sure I see why getting kicked in the nuts by the Fed makes me less willing to buy a $50k used car that I already won't buy, but I guess they know what they are doing.